Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level...
Transcript of Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level...
![Page 1: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
JohnA.Church1,Ma0hewD.Palmer2andSusanWijffels11CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,Hobart,Australia2MetOfficeHadleyCentre,Exeter,UnitedKingdomOCEANSANDATMOSPHERENATIONALRESEARCHFLAGSHIP
AssessmentoftheEarth’sEnergyandSeaLevelChanges
![Page 2: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
vonSchuckmannetal[2016]
Earth’senergyimbalance:thedriverofglobalclimatechange
![Page 3: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
PalmerandMcNeall[2014]vonSchuckmannetal[2016]
SurfacetemperatureisaweakindicatorofEarth’senergyimbalanceondecadalJmescales
![Page 4: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
PalmerandMcNeall[2014]vonSchuckmannetal[2016]
OceanheatcontentchangeisareliableonEarth’senergyimbalanceondecadalJmescales
![Page 5: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Oceansabsorbed>90%oftheenergystorageandaccountforathirdofradiaJveforcing
5IPCCWGICh3&13
![Page 6: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
TheArgoArrayprovideshigh-quality,globalcoverageto2000m,fromabout2006• Mapoceanheatcontentandstericsealevel• Qualitycontrolofdataimportant.Bewareofbiasesfromhistoricaldatabases.
• Coveragenotcompletepriorto2006
6
![Page 7: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
ArgoheatcontentesJmatestolate2015SteadyheaJngofocean,parJcularlySouthernOceanandfrom300mto2000m
7|
Wijffelsetal.2016
![Page 8: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
DeepOceanWarming• Sincethe1990s,whensufficientdeep-oceanobservaUonshavebecomeavailabletoallowanassessment,thedeepoceanbelow3000mdepthhaslikelywarmed.
SPM-4andChapter3.2:DeepOceanWarming
Fig3.3Meanwarmingratesbelow4000mcenteredon1992–2005.SUppledareasnotsignificantat95%.Thickblacklines-RepeatoceanographictransectsusedtoesUmatewarmingrates.DatafromPurkeyandJohnson(2010).
![Page 9: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Totalenergystorageconsistentwithclimatemodelensemble(butsignificantvariabilitybetweenmodels)
9
• Upper2000mofoceansampledbyArgo=0.5-0.65Wm-2
• Fulloceanarea&deepocean=0.65-0.8Wm-2
• 0.7–0.86Wm-2incllithosphere,cryosphere,atmosphere
ModelresultsfromChurchetal.2013,IPCCWGIAR5Ch13
![Page 10: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Rateofheatstoragehasincreased,withsignificantstorageindeepocean
Gleckleretal[2016]
![Page 11: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Progresstowardsadeepoceanobservingsystem–needtomaintainGO-SHIPandextendArgotofulldepth
GO-SHIPnowprovidesobservaUonsinthedeepocean(>2000m)
Straw-planfor5x5degreeDeepArgofloatarray0-4000mand0-6000mfloatsarecurrentlybeingdeployedinpilotstudies
![Page 12: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Globalsealevelandenergybudgetslinked
RelaUvesealevelisalsoaffectedbyoceandensityandcirculaUon,landmovement,anddistribuUonofmassontheEarth
Fig13.1
Warming(cooling)oftheocean(thermalexpansion/contracUon)
Changeinmassofglaciersandicesheets(BarystaUc)
Changesinliquidwaterstorageonland(BarystaUc)
![Page 13: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
SealevelisconJnuingtoriseatafasterratethantheaverageduringthe20thcentury
Timeofemergenceforregionalsea-levelchange13|
![Page 14: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Thetrendisnotuniformglobally
Timeofemergenceforregionalsea-levelchange14|
![Page 15: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
ThestrongElNiñohasresultedinhighsealevelanomaliesintheeasternPacificattheendof2015
![Page 16: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
AswellasthermalexpansionandglaciercontribuJons,theGreenlandandAntarcJcIceSheetsarelosingmass
Timeofemergenceforregionalsea-levelchange16| Velicognaetal.2014
![Page 17: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
PastclimatevariaJonsimportantforsealevelrisepriorto1950–Anthropogenicforcingdominatesa`er1970
Slangenetal.,inreview
![Page 18: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Conclusions• OceanheatcontentcriUcalelementofkeepingtrackofclimatechangeandunderstandingtheEarth’sradiaUonandsealevelbudgets.
• ArgoallowsmuchimprovedesUmatesofupper(<2km)oceanheatcontent-needtoextendtofulldepthandfulloceancoverage,complementedbyrepeatsecUons.
• Unequivocalwarmingoverdecades–EsUmatesconsistentwithCMIP5modelesUmatesofoceanheatcontent.
• SealevelconUnuingtorise;StrongElNiñoinlate2015resultedinhighersealevelsintheeasternPacific.
• ContribuUonsfromthermalexpansionandtheaddiUonofmassfromglaciersandicesheets.
• Anthropogenicclimatechangedominatesrecentrise.• HeatcontentandsealevelarecriUcalmeasuresofefficacyofmiUgaUon.
• Longtermcommitment!18|
![Page 19: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
InsitudatasuggestsreprocessedalJmeterdatahassmallertrendandaposiJve(notsignificant)acceleraJon(ratherthanadeceleraJon)
Watson et al. 2015
![Page 20: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• ObservaUon-basedesUmateNocreatedbyaveragingsatelliteandAMIPsimulaUons
• Goodagreement(r=0.82)withensemblemeanofCMIP5coupledmodels
• VariaUonsdominatedbyvolcanicerupUons(Agung1963,ElChichon1982andPinatubo1991)
• AbsolutevaluesofNfordifferentperiodsinreasonableagreementwithCMIP5andIPCC
Smithetal.2014
![Page 21: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Improvedunderstandingof20thcenturysealevelchangeObservedcontribuUonsexplainobservedGMSLR1993-2010
DatafromTable13.1
Figure13.7
Anthropogenicinfluence
![Page 22: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Measureoceanmassanditscomponents–significantuncertainJesremainCompareoceanicandgravitaJonalesJmateofregionaloceanmasschange
Diengetal.2015Purkeyetal.2014
CanwebackouticesheetandlandwatercontribuUons?(e.g.Reageretal.2016)
![Page 23: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
AlJmeterandstericsealeveltrends2006to2014
Timeofemergenceforregionalsea-levelchange23|
![Page 24: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
DifferencesbetweenAlJmeterandsteric(0-2000m)trends–meanremoved
Timeofemergenceforregionalsea-levelchange24|
![Page 25: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
PalmerandMcNeall[2014]vonSchuckmannetal[2016]
TheglobaloceandominatestheenergybudgetonJmescales>1year
![Page 26: Assessment of the Earth’s Energy and Sea Level Changesassets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/March2016_HeatContentSea... · 2016. 3. 31. · Global sea level and energy budgets linked Relave](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060918/60aaa46242f7940171315374/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
RadiaJveforcing,climatefeedbacksandstorageofenergywithintheclimatesystemareconsistentwiththelikelyrange
ofclimatesensiJvity
Box13.1,Figure1IPCCAR5,Box13.1Fig1,Churchetal.2013