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Transcript of Assessing the Impact of Stock Markets on Development and Economic Growth.
Bradford Centre for International Development
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF STOCK MARKETS ON
DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH:
CAN LIBYA HAVE A SUCCESSFUL STOCK MARKET?
By
Aboubaker Suleiman A. BADI
UB number: 07014568
Submitted to the Bradford Centre for International Development
University of Bradford In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of degree of
MSc in Development and Project Planning
September 2008
Word Count: The length of this dissertation is: 12,305 word
Declaration
Aboubaker Suleiman A. BADI
No part of this dissertation may be reproduced without the permission of the author.
I declare that this dissertation is substantially my own original work and has not been submitted in any form for an award at any other academic institution.
Where material has been drawn from other sources, this has been fully acknowledged.
Signature ........................................
Date.......................................
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of stock markets development on
economic growth, or rather, the role of the stock markets in enhancing growth in the
developing countries. Many research studies have concluded a significant result that stock
markets had a positive role on economic growth in both developing and developed countries.
However, some researchers have a contrary view and suggest that the financial system is
unimportant for economic growth. This study also discusses the question of whether
establishing a stock market in developing countries will have a positive role in supporting the
economic development process.
According to the analysis in this study, establishing a stock market in Libya might
help the mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, and households to articulate the
relevant portfolios, diversify their investment, and offer the opportunity of reducing risk,
especially in the case of having foreign listed instruments in their national exchanges and vice
versa.
I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to express my special thanks to my supervisor Dr. David Potts, for his
assistant, support and advice during the research and writing of this dissertation.
I further would like to thank members of Bradford Centre for International
Development University of Bradford, for their education and assistant during my study.
A special thanks to the Gaddafi International Charity and Development Foundation
(GICDF) for giving me the opportunity to prepare my master study in UK.
Last but not least, I would like to thank my parents, and my wife for their endless love,
patience and support, without which I cannot finish my study.
II
LIST OF MAPS, TABLES AND FIGURES
Map 3.1: Libya location……………………………………………………………...24
Table 2.1: Arab stock markets compared to the world markets in 2006………...17
Table 3.1: Growth of average income per capita as percentage of gross national product for the period 1970-1990……………………………………….26
Table 3.2: Libya: Summary macroeconomic performance 1991-2005…………..27
Table 3.3: Libya: Number of branches and agencies of commercial banks with municipalities…………………..…………………………..……………....33
Table 3.4: Companies which currently listed in the Libyan stock market………...37
Figure 3.1: Domestic Credits, % of GDP……………………………………...…..…30
III
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AMEDA African and Middle East Depository Agency
AMF Arab Monetary Fund
ANNA Association of National Numbering Agencies
ASEA Arab Securities Exchange Association
CBL Central Bank of Libya.
CDR Central Depository and Registry
DVP Delivery Versus Payment
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
GBOT Government Board for Ownership Transfer
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GODS General Data Dissemination System
IFC International Finance Corporation
IMF International Monetary Fund
LSM Libyan Stock Market.
LYD Libyan Dinar
M&A Merger and Acquisition
MENA Middle East and North Africa
OBG Oxford Business Group.
OLS Ordinary Least Squares approach
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
SGF Settlement Guarantee Fund
SOEs State-Owned Enterprises
UAE United Arab Emirates
UN United Nations
US United States
WB World Bank
WFE World Federation of Exchanges
WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction
IV
Table of Contents
ABSTRACT…. ............................................................................................................. I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .......................................................................................... II
LIST OF MAPS, TABLES AND FIGURES .......................................................... III
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................. IV
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 1.1 Topic and Purpose ..................................................................................... 1
1.2 Research Objectives .................................................................................. 2
1.3 Research Question ..................................................................................... 2
1.4 Methodology ............................................................................................. 3
1.4.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 3
1.4.2 Research method ............................................................................ 3
1.4.3 Data collection ............................................................................... 3
1.5 Structure of the dissertation ....................................................................... 4
CHAPTER 2: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKETS
DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ......................... 6 2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................. 6
2.2 Financial Development and Economic Growth ....................................... 6
2.3 Financial Sector and its Importance in Improving the Performance of Stock Markets .......................................................................................... 10
2.4 Stock Markets Development and Economic Growth ............................. 14
2.5 The Main Findings of the Studies on the Arab Stock Markets Performance ............................................................................................ 21
2.6 Summary ................................................................................................ 23
V
VI
CHAPTER 3: AN INTRODUCTION TO THE LIBYAN ECONOMY .............. 24 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 24
3.2 Background ............................................................................................. 24
3.3 A Brief History of Libyan Economy ....................................................... 25
3.4 The Financial Sector in Libya ................................................................. 26
3.4.1 Modernizing Libya's Financial Sector .................................... 30
3.4.2 Priorities in Financial Sector Reform ..................................... 33
3.5 Libyan Stock Market (LSM). .................................................................. 35
3.5.1 Steps of Establishment............................................................. 36
3.5.2 Market Regulation ................................................................... 39
3.6 Summary ................................................................................................. 44
CHAPTER 4: CAN THE STOCK MARKETS PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIBYA? ....................................... 45
CHAPTER 5:
CONCLUSION ................................................................................... 50
BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................... 52
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Topic and Purpose
An important feature of the development of the financial sector in a large number
of developing economies is the very fast growth of stock-markets in these countries. It is
part of the general trend towards liberalisation, deregulation the diminution of the role of
the government and enhancement of that of the market, which for various reasons is
sweeping the globe the North and the South, and what remains the East as well as the
West. The establishment and expansion of these markets is favoured not just by the
Bretton Woods institutions, as one would expect, but also by many heterodox economists
as well as those from the centrally planned economics. Hicks suggested that one of the
main causes of improving the economic growth over the past two centuries are financial
markets development, claiming that; “The Industrial Revolution would have been
impossible without the concurrent development of financial markets.”(cited in Van-den
Berg, 2001, pp. 290-291). The World Bank, particularly through its affiliate the
International Finance Corporation (IFC), is actively involved in fostering stock-market
development in third world countries and assisting and encouraging them to open up to
foreign portfolio investment. Specifically, the IFC provides technical assistance to a large
number of countries on the legal, regulatory and fiscal issues involved, as well as on other
aspects of the institutional framework for the development of these markets.
However, some researchers such as Robinson (1952) and Lucas (1988) have
argued that stock markets have little positive impact and potentially, even a large negative
impact on economy. In developing countries, there are many questions about the link
between financial markets and both development and growth. What is the impact of these
1
markets on advancing the economic development in developing countries? In other
words, do these markets have a positive role in the restructuring and completion of the
economic structure of these countries to enable them to achieve the real highest growth
rate? Thus, the aim of this dissertation is to seek answers to these questions, and it will
focus on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, and
how this relationship can be materialized in the Libyan economy.
1.2 Research Objectives
This study is an attempt to examine various important issues concerned with the
relation between stock markets and the economic development process. The study has the
following three specific objectives:
a) To shed light upon the relation between the performance of stock exchange and
economic development process.
b) To analyse the current situation of Libyan stock markets (achievements and
problems).
c) To forecast the development of Libyan stock market in the future.
1.3 Research Question
The essential focus of the study is on the relationship between stock market
development and economic growth, where it aims to find out whether establishing a stock
market in developing countries may have a positive role on the economic development
process. Therefore, the study attempt to answer the following core question:
• What is the relationship between stock market development and economic
growth?
2
By answering this question the study will try to address the following questions which
have strong importance relation to the Libyan stock exchange
• Does establishing a stock exchange in the developing countries have a positive
role to support the economic development process?
• Can Libya have a successful stock market?
1.4 Methodology
1.4.1 Introduction
This section shows the methodology which will be used in the dissertation. The
section explains the data collection method, data analyses that will be utilized, and the
expected results that would be generated from this study.
1.4.2 Research method
The research strategy of this paper is mainly based on library literature research
and secondary data. However, readers of this paper should be aware that research based
on secondary data involves the risk of mistakes and errors as the information and data are
not directly observed from primary resources.
1.4.3 Data collection
The sources used to search for relevant secondary resources included literature in
the library and past research papers and theses. In addition, it also involved some case
studies on world stock markets. The collection of relevant data in order to get the general
pictures for both of the stock markets gives some control over the research process.
3
Data were directly obtained through Libyan stock market reports, the Central Bank
of Libya website, and official websites such as IMF and WB, other useful online
resources include the Libya Statistical Yearbook, and the national statistics online for
Libya. Search Engines like Yahoo and Google were also used for the literature based
research to this topic.
The major advantage of using secondary data is the saving of time. It is also likely
to be good in quality as most of the data are produced by experts and professional
organizations and easy to collect. However, consideration needs to be made as most of
the secondary data are produced for a particular purpose which may not meet my need.
Thus, evaluation of the data is required.
1.5 Structure of the dissertation
This study aims to re-examines whether there is a relationship between develop a
stock market and its role on economic growth. In addition, it expects to draw beneficial
conclusions for future development of Libyan stock market.
Thus, the study will be divided into five main chapters. Chapter 2 will be the
review of the literature. It reviews the theoretical framework and empirical evidence on
the relationship between financial development and economic growth in general and the
linkage between stock market development and growth in detail. Chapter 3 provides an
introduction to the background and history of the Libyan economy. Chapter 4 explores
the possible roles of the stock market in the Libyan economy, referring to some Arab
countries stock market as an example.
4
Finally, in the last part, the implications of the analysis on the relationship between
stock market development and economic growth will be summarized in Chapter 5 tries to
answer the questions that underlie this research on the relationship between stock market
development and economic growth.
5
CHAPTER 2 A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
STOCK MARKETS DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The review of the literature will be covered in four sections. Section 2.2 will
review the literature which is related to financial development and economic growth.
The primary focus of the study is on stock markets, however, the theory suggests that to
look at stock markets without examining the role and contribution of banks and
financial sector could present incomplete results (Beck and Levine, 2001). Therefore,
Section 2.3 takes a close look at the role of the financial sector on stock markets,
particularly the role of financial intermediation while Section 2.4 reviews the literature
on stock market development and economic growth, and also reviews some of the
channels by which the stock market may influence economic performance. Section 2.5
reports the main findings of published studies and research that describe the
performance of stock markets, referring to some Arab financial markets. Finally, a
summary will be given in the last section of this chapter.
2.2 Financial Development and Economic Growth
Prior to two decades ago, governments and institutions felt that the costs of setting
up and maintaining securities markets were prohibitive for less-developed countries,
especially when viewed against the potential benefits. They felt that it was not worth the
effort (McLindon, 1996).
6
However, with the need to finance development, international economists turned
to securities markets and stock markets. The scepticism on the contribution that these
markets could potentially make to lesser-developed countries was explored. The
conclusion reached was that these markets brought sufficient benefits to justify their
establishment provided that governments developed and implemented appropriate
policies. This was particularly so as these markets could facilitate improved domestic
savings and mobilisation of these savings and improved investment, allocation (Shaw,
1973).
McLindon, (1996) who previously indicated in his work that the benefits to lesser
developed countries were not worth the costs later cites. Bencinvenga and Smith (1991)
after reviewing several studies, argued that beyond any doubt there was a close
imperfect relationship between the efficiency of an economy's capital market and its
level or rate of growth of real development.
There are two lines of researchers in this area. The first indicate that the financial
system is unimportant for economic growth. This group, ‘the sceptics’, claims that
improving the financial system is unimportant for economic growth , and argued that
economic development is the core of financial development and not the opposite. For
instance, an early study by Robinson (1952) indicated that the economic development
and what associated of high rates of the real economic growth would create demand on
several services, which requests to develop the infrastructure of the financial system in
the state in all its components, which include the financial markets.
7
Financial difficulties have been related to poor macroeconomic management since
the great depression of the 1930s. According to Shaw (1973) this depression was more
severe due to inefficiency in the financial markets in general, and the banking sector in
particular. In the light of the aforementioned, many influential economists hold
dramatically different views with respect to the link between financial institutions and
the macroeconomic act of an economy.
However, the second group argue that financial systems are crucial for economic
growth, especially for savings mobilization and distribution of capital. Many theoretical
and applied studies have discussed this subject. Its root began at the beginning of the
last century with the writings of Schumpeter (1912) on the relationship between the
growth of the financial sector and long term economical development. He concluded
that an efficient financial system supports greatly the growth of the country’s economy.
He also noted that technological innovation is the force behind the long-term
investments and economic growth, and stated that the issue of creativity is the ability of
the financial sector to provide credit to investors.
Numerous studies have dealt with the different aspects of this relationship, and
concluded that there is a positive relationship. More recently, Levine (1997) commented
that it was Schumpeter's argument that activation the stock exchange and increase of
their liquidity as in many growing markets would contribute in increasing the
qualification of the banking sector, as well as increasing the effectiveness of direct and
indirect financial intermediation to provide long term financing needed for investments.
By using data from 80 countries for the period 1960-1989, King and Levine (1993)
asserts that the financial sector could play an important role in supporting the economic
8
growth of the state. The study pointed out that the development of the banking sector in
many developing countries had a positive effect on the development process.
In addition, a study by De Gregorio and Guidotti (1995) examined the relationship
between long-term growth and financial development, by using a large cross-country
sample. The study defined the ratio between bank credit to the private sector and GDP,
and concluded that there is a positive correlation. But, this relationship changes across
countries, for instance the study shows a negative impact in panel data for Latin
America, because of the financial liberalization in a poor regulatory environment. At the
same time, the study suggests that efficiency is the main channel of transmission of
financial development for growth, rather than the volume of investment.
Moreover, there are several studies which discuss the issue of financial
development and long run growth, and the results reached by these studies suggest that
higher levels of financial development are directly correlated positively with economic
growth, physical capital accumulation and economic efficiency improvements. For
example, Arestis and Demetraides (1996) analysed in their study 12 countries as a
sample and came to the conclusion that growth and economic development of any
country depends primarily on the effectiveness of financial institutions of this country
and policies in force in the particular countries. In a further study also led by
Demetraides and Hussein (1996) they examined whether there was a relationship
detected between these variables in 16 developing countries. However, what they
discovered was that in some countries the causal link was from growth to finance rather
than finance to growth as originally posited. Hence, their study suggests that there can
be no universal conclusion that financial development contributes to growth.
9
Similarly, an analytical study of a various financial institutions by Levine and
Zervos (1996) indicated that the efficiency of banks and financial markets in terms of
providing financial services such as liquidity, and improving the efficiency of banking
operations may be the main reason for capital accumulation and increased productivity.
As clearly mentioned above and based on studies that have been done on cross-
country and individual comparisons, including an analysis of the industry and the level
of the firm, it has been found that a positive link exists between the level of
development of the financial systems and economic growth. Even though some gaps
remain and some methodologies are questionable, and the mechanism that explains the
positive relation is in question by some economists, recent literature generally supports
the view that the financial system is vital to economic growth.
2.3 Financial Sector and its Importance in Improving the Performance of Stock Markets
Today, the financial sector may be considered as the most important sector
compared to other economic sectors in the developing countries. The financial sector
offers services through the process of buying money, financial instruments and securities
or financial services in certain situation, and then reselling these money or financial
instruments or services in another situation. The institutions that provide such services
are called intermediary financial institutions, while the places of selling and buying
money and financial instruments are known as financial markets. Accordingly, the
financial sector includes two major parts, financial markets and financial institutions,
which have different merits, functions and mechanisms (Murinde, 1996).
10
This section is devoted to the financial sector and its importance in improving the
performance of stock markets in developing economy, referring to the importance of
financial liberalization and the financial intermediation.
According to Howells, and Bain (1998) financial liberalisation is defined as a set
of measures taken, policies implemented, and legal regulations enacted for removing or
mitigating controls on demand and supply in financial markets. It is considered as a legal
framework suitable for political and administrative reforms for ensuring stability in the
financial system. Thus, liberalization of interest rates, effectiveness of markets in the
allocation of loans and foreign currency, deepening of capital and currency markets, and
increase in international capital movements are consequences of financial liberalisation.
Financial intermediaries include banks, pension funds, insurance companies,
brokerage houses, investment trusts, and stock exchanges. Financial institutions and
respected professional standards are required for a successful capital market to maintain
investor confidence. Government bonds and corporate shares are sold to the public
normally through institutions like issuing houses. New issues are offered in the Primary
Market where new capital is raised. Subsequent trading of financial instruments is done
in the Secondary Market where ownership changes. Without a secondary market it may
be difficult to get initial buyers for securities. With a range of marketable securities
available the risk of parting with funds can be reduced by setting up a diversified
portfolio (Howells, and Bain, 1998).
11
Stockbrokers and stockjobbers1 are attached to the stock exchange where
transactions of many financial securities take place. They are the market-makers2 who
help keep capital markets active. Brokerage firms may provide advice on shares and
other investment alternatives. In emerging capital markets with less specialised
institutions banks may dominate the primary and secondary markets.
Therefore, the first task of the financial system is settlement of the different
interests of end users, borrowers and lenders. The system itself consists of a group of
institutions and markets both of which assist investors to borrow and to lend. Financial
institutions are often described as 'intermediaries' because of their capacity to provide
liquidity for investors (borrowers and lenders); this capacity relies upon the reduction of
costs and risk and the transformation of maturity. These processes are facilitated by the
size of intermediaries. The effects of a financial system are to make borrowing and
lending cheaper as well as raising the level of liquidity; this in turn encourages
investment and may also increase the level of spending in the economy. The efficiency
with which the financial system channels funds from lenders to borrowers is also
important for resource allocation (Bain, 1992).
The financial sector is a relatively new economic sector compared to other sectors
such as the industrial and agricultural sectors, and it has mainly emerged and developed
in the last century. But today the financial sector is considered as the most develop and
expanded sector in the world economy including in developing countries and it is
1 “…registered dealers in specific securities usually holding stocks of the securities they deal in” (Franks & Broyles, 1979: 171) Modern Managerial Finance. 2 Firms that create a market by purchasing and selling financial securities.
12
expanding both vertically and horizontally as expressed by a variety of institutions and
financial products (Creane, et al. 2004).
The financial sector activities work within a stated legal framework. The legal
framework is different from one state to another, which reflects the variety of the legal
entities and financial instruments existing in the world economy as well as displaying the
degree of maturity of such a sector. However, such variety mainly depends on the related
laws which organize the activities of the financial sector. The types, merits, and
mechanisms of the financial sector in any economy are determined based on the related
laws, regulations and the jurisdiction system in general. For example, some activities,
products, services, and producers belonging to the financial sector may be permitted in
one economy and not authorized in another economy (Creane, et al. 2004).
Referring to the previous studies have shown how important the financial sector
and its role in the success of the process of economic growth. The Libyan government
focus at the present time to develop the financial sector, transforming it into an open
economy rather than a planned economy. In recent years the non-bank financial
institutions like the Sarab Foreign Exchange and Financial Services, which working in
the field of securities & brokerage and online trading, as well as the International
company for financial investments have become prominent3. The relaxation of interest
rates controls and the appearance of new financial institutions and instruments have
contributed to greater competition in the sector. The public sector has increased
3 For more information see LSM annual report (2006) on: http://www.libyastockmarket.com/pdf/Ver/annual‐Ar.pdf
13
borrowing through long term and short term financial debt instruments with market
determined yield. This primary market trading has reduced the reliance on direct
borrowing from commercial banks through overdrafts and term loans. The public sector
can now manage its maturity profile of debts with more flexibility and raise funds at
more competitive interest rates (LSM, 2006).
2.4 Stock Markets Development and Economic Growth
There is no doubt that the stock market can be one of the important pillars for
growth in of emerging market economies, but the relation between stock markets and
economic growth in developing countries is still subject to investigation and variation in
opinions. The long-term financial resources that are needed to drive the economic growth
can be achieved through two essential sources, domestic financing, and foreign
financing. These two resources play an important role in forming the structure of the
stock market which provides resources for financing economic growth and the
development process (Atkin, and Dailami, 1990).
This part will discuss the most important theoretical studies that support the
hypotheses which this research is based on, that stock markets have a positive role on
economic growth, referring to the Asian, and Latin American capital markets, and some
Arab countries stock markets.
It is worth clarifying the definition of stock markets, especially emerging stock
markets. Eiteman et, al (1966) points out that the stock market is a place where shares
can be bought and sold at prices that depend upon the relation of demand and supply.
14
The financial markets include stock markets, bonds markets, money markets and
others such as gold and currency markets. In the Arab economy, the existed financial
markets may be named as the stock market or the stock exchange as trading mainly in
stocks. Thus the main function of the capital markets in the Arab economy is trading in
stocks, even in some Arab stock markets we find trading in other products such as bonds
and treasury bills (Bolbol, and Omran, 2004).
The stock market is a capital market where a share of corporate ownership is
traded. The trading of stocks occurs for various reasons, including speculations4,
arbitrage between markets, short term and long term investment, hedging, reducing risk
and diversifying investment. In addition, there are other purposes such as changing the
ownership structure through hostile or voluntary takeover of a corporation. The stock
market is the most significant market in the world economy for both developed and
emerging countries. It moved from being a national market to an international market.
Stock market aims to offer the relevant environment to determine the right price of a
share as well as for implementing, and settling the related trading transactions.
Accordingly, this market is witnessing the most flourish period during a century of
trading. and it is the most vital sector among all financial markets. In addition, stock
market is the most growing financial sector in the world economy as expressed by
trading value and number of traded securities. The rapid development of financial
markets has been extending to emerging economics as well as to the Arab economy
(Khalifa, 2000).
4 Speculation, in a financial context, is the assumption of the risk of loss, in return for the uncertain possibility of a reward. For further reading see; Edward Chancellor (2000) A History of Financial Speculation.
15
A survey by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has carried out significant
work on capital market development in Asia, and Latin America. They have provided a
wealth of statistics on international capital markets. Information provided by the IFC
reveals that over the 10 years to 2002 the total value of stocks listed on the world's entire
stock markets rose to in excess of $32.0 trillion. In 1985 approximately 30 developing
countries had stock markets or even well defined financial sectors. Few firms, even large
companies, raised capital from a stock market. Formal sources of private equity for firms
such as venture Capital funds were unheard of in developing countries. Today, over 60
developing countries have stock markets and their capitalisation increased more than
tenfold from US $171 billion in 1985 to over US $1.9 trillion in 1997 or from less than
4% to almost 13% of the total. In 2002, as indicated above, the world stock market
capitalisation was US$32.0 trillion (IFC, 2003).
Turnover rose from 26% to 85% of emerging market capitalisation, and liquidity
has increased even faster between 1985 and 1995, or from less than 3% of the world total
to 17%. The number of domestic companies listed on emerging markets more than
doubled from 8,916 in 1985 to 19,397 in 1995. By 2002, this number had exceeded
20,000. This compared with 19,467 in developed countries. By 1997, both developed and
developing countries each had more than 19,500 companies (IFC, 1998). In 2002
approximately 40,000 companies were listed (IFC, 2003).
16
The stock market is the most significant market in the world economy for both
developed and emerging countries. It moved from being a national market to an
international market. The stock exchanges in the developing countries have played a
remarkable role in attracting increased foreign investment, and have also drawn the
attention of academics and policy makers. The share of the Arab stock market to the
world market is still limited and does not exceed 1.7% of the market capitalization, and
2.4% of the stock trading value of the total world stock markets in 2006 as shown in
(Table 2.1)
Table 2.1: Arab stock markets compared to the world markets in 2006 ($ Billions)
Stock markets Capitalization Trading value
Arab stock markets 888 1,685
The world stock markets 52,145 71,169
Ratio to the world stock markets
1.7% 2.4%
Sources: *WFE, Focus, (2007); & *AMF AMDB, (2007).
In addition, none of the Arab stock markets is listed among the top 50 world
markets based on market capitalization, or total traded value with exception of the Saudi
Arabia market, while the Egyptian market is the only Arab market listed among the top
50 markets based on number of listed firms, and only the Saudi Arabia, UAE, and
Morocco markets are listed among the top 50 markets based on the average company
size (WFE, 2007b).
Theoretical literature suggests that the functioning of equity markets influences
liquidity. Stock market liquidity is the total value of shares relative to GDP or total
market capitalisation. In respect of this, many applied studies have been carried out
17
around the impact of the banking sector on the economic growth. A study by Levine and
Zervos (1998) on stock market liquidity and banking development shows that banking
and stock market development are correlated with the current and future rate of
economic growth and capital accumulation.
It must be recognized that many researchers suggest that there is a positive
relationship between stock market development and economic growth. In principle, a
well functioning stock market may help the development process in an economy through
increase of liquidity, risk diversification and finding an appropriate mechanism for
determining the structure of the interest rates (Rousseau. and Wachte 2000). The next
part will review the literature that dealt with the most important channels by which stock
market may influence economic performance.
Stock Markets and Liquidity: Stock markets contribute the liquidity and long-term
financing required to support the economic growth process in the developing countries.
The availability of active stock markets means the availability of high liquidity, in
addition a lower degree of risk which encourages local and foreign investors to advance
some of their financial surplus to be invested in the stock markets to buy financial
papers. The availability of this liquidity and long-term financing would encourage the
investors in various economic sectors for production and achieving high ratios of profits,
which will be distributed proportionally to the shareholders (Bencivenga et, al. 1996).
18
Levine (1991) found that the first aim of rising stock markets is to provide
liquidity, where liquid assets such as equity in a liquid stock market will be held by
investors and savers, whereas issuing equities by the listed companies may help these
companies to take advantage of the capital raised. In the meantime, when stock markets
wish to alter their portfolios it allow investors to buy and sell quickly and cheaply, as a
result it reduce the downside risk and expenditure of investing in projects that do not pay
off for a long term. More savings and investment thus may also result in more beneficial
projects, and enhance long-term economic growth. The existence of a less risky stock
market and less expensive assets for investors and easy accessibility for companies
improves the allocation of capital, and is necessary for economic growth (Bencivenga et,
al. 1995).
Although this view is reasonable. However, there are other researchers who have
an opposite view, arguing that greater stock market liquidity may weaken the
commitment of the contractors in this market to keep their funds for long-term, which
may cause a negative effect on economic growth (Levine, 1991). Moreover, a study by
Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (1996) reveals three channels by which greater stock markets
liquidity may negatively influence economic growth. The first, is that bigger stock
market liquidity might trim down savings rates by raising the returns to investment. The
second, is that given the effect of uncertainty on savings, bigger stock market liquidity
may in fact decrease saving rates through its negative impact on uncertainty since less
uncertainty might reduce the demand for precautionary savings. The third channel
operates through the euphoria and myopia that may be encouraged by highly liquid stock
markets.
19
Stock Markets and Risk Diversification: There are some studies that indicate that
more risk-sharing might support economic growth. While some other researchers suggest
the opposite. For instance, a study by Obstfeld (1994) indicated that economic growth
and resource allocation can be improved by international risk sharing through
internationally integrated stock markets. However, according to a survey by Devereux
and Smith (1994) high risk sharing through international integrated stock markets can be
the main reason for a lower savings rate. Moreover, the growth of the economy will take
long than usual, weakening the level of economic welfare.
Finding an Appropriate Mechanism for Determining the Structure of the
Interest Rates: stock markets can contribute to determining the interest rates through the
central bank by using the policy of open market, which is one of the important
instruments to manage monetary policy. The central bank starts buying and selling
government bonds in the stock market in order to influence liquidity and the structure of
the interest rates. In this matter, many studies indicate the existence of a strong
relationship between monetary policies and the level of share prices in the stock
exchange (Bossone, 1999).
Reference to a study of De Gregorio and Guidotti (1995) reveals the existence of a
direct correlation between the supply of money on the one hand, and both interest rates
and the level of economic activity on other hand. It concludes by saying that increasing
the money supply which leads to lower interest rates, will encourage the mobilization of
more investment, which naturally leads to increased production and decreases the rate
unemployment, which usually reflects the level of demand for products. This increase in
20
demand will be followed by an increase in the profits, consequently leading to an
increase in shares price in the stock markets (De Gregorio and Guidotti, 1995).
In order for Libya to have a sustained economic growth there has to be an adequate
supply of medium and long term finance. The development of the capital market is
essential to aid this supply of funds. A reached conclusion of a research survey on capital
market in Libya by Bukhatwa (1999) gives the assurance that it is possible to have a
successful capital market in Libya. The capital market has to provide savers attractive
medium and long term securities and investment opportunities. the capital market is also
to help in the efficient of fund which would be easily available for projects that would
bring good returns5.
2.5 The Main Findings of the Studies on the Arab Stock Markets Performance
Various studies examined the performance of Arab stock markets and reported
contradictory findings, which may be summarized as follows:
Guermat, et al. (2003) examined whether the economic and political instability of
most of the Arab countries lead their stock markets to be riskier than the stock markets in
the developed countries, and found that Arab stock markets including Egypt. Jordan, and
Morocco are less risky and that the average coverage costs were also lower than the US
stock markets. AI Janab (2007) examined the equity trading risk management in the
Casablanca stock market and found that there are individual differences that create
5 Chapter 4 contains more detail about requirements for the development of a successful stock market in Libya.
21
unique expected return opportunities. Bolbol and Omran, (2004) stated that Arab firms
are still largely closed, family-owned with a narrow concentration of ownership.
A study by El-Erian and Kumar (1995) reported that the role of the equity markets
in developing the Arab region may be accomplished if reform policies are implemented
to reduce the country risk and to implement privatization programs, and to strengthen the
external payment regime. Girard and Omran (2007) found that despite economic,
financial and political reforms, issues related to financial transparency and political
instability are still powerful obstacles to investment in these markets. Neaime (2002)
reported that enhancing financial integration and liberalization in the Arab stock markets
will increase benefits to investors, enhance growth and liquidity in these markets and
reduce the cost of raising capital in the local market.
A survey by BenNaceur, et al. (2005) indicated the important role of economic
development in promoting stock market development and concluded that banks and
stock markets are complements and not substitutes. Finally, BenNaceur et al., (2006)
discussed the relationship between asset's price movements and monetary policy in Arab
stock markets and reported that stock market responses are negligible in most of these
countries, although in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia it appears to be more pronounced.
Accordingly, it may be concluded that the majority of the Arab stock exchanges
adopted various new practices related to stock trading mechanism and cash settlement
systems. Such new introduced practices may have significant positive aspects such as
22
reducing trading costs and transactions, increasing liquidity, increasing transparency, and
increasing information sharing between concerned parties. But, on the other side that
may bring negative aspects including the impairment of market efficiency and that may
create market fragmentation in the case of cross listed firms and use of multiple
currencies. However, these negative aspects do not exist in all periods of stock trading,
but they may be materialized during periods of deep falling prices and unstable periods
of trading. Accordingly, and to avoid the adverse affects that might accompany the new
introduced practices, several regulations, and measures need to be adopted in order to
keep the Arab markets work in a relevant environment and far from future crises.
2.6 Summary
In this chapter, literature review on the relationship between economic growth and
financial development, especially the stock markets development, was taken out; and the
important roles of stock markets were mainly explored: A liquid and efficient stock
market can affect economic growth via liquidity, reducing risk, finding an appropriate
mechanism for determining the structure of the interest rates, and easing savings
mobilization. From the previous studies, although, some researchers argue that there are
still some negative effects on economic growth, the positive effects are much greater. It
is argued by most academics that stock market development is positively correlated with
economic growth.
23
CHAPTER 3 AN INTRODUCTION TO THE LIBYAN ECONOMY
3.1 Introduction
This chapter is to provide the reader with a clear idea about the case study. Thus,
the chapter will be divided in to four sections. Section 3.2, starts with the geographical
location of Libya, while Section 3.3 will review a brief history of the Libyan economy.
Section 3.4 will take a close look at the financial sector and review the economic
developments during the past ten years. Section 3.5 will clarify the steps to be taken to
establish the Libyan stock market. Finally, a summary will be given in the last section of
this chapter.
3.2 Background
Libya or, to give its official name, The Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab
Jamahiriya, lies between Egypt to the east, Algeria and Tunisia to the west, Sudan to the
south east, and Chad and Niger to the south (Map 3.1). With an area of approximately of
1,775,500 km2, Libya's is the fourth largest country in Africa. Its capital, Tripoli, is
located in the north by the
Mediterranean Sea. Libya's population,
according to the latest census in 2007 is
approximately 6.2 million residents
(OBG).
(Map 3.1: Libya location)
24
3.3 A Brief History of Libyan Economy
Since the early seventies, the Libyan leadership have chosen the planned economy
system, which limits investment to the areas determined by the state, and imposes strict
restrictions on foreign trade. The suffocating intervention of the government in the
economy over a number of years led to a continuing deterioration in the business
climate, lowering economic growth, and the almost complete absence of the private
sector. Furthermore, falling world oil prices in the early 1980s and the impact of
economic sanctions in the 1990s caused a serious decline in economic activity (WB,
2006).
Having recently successfully achieved diplomatic rehabilitation as a result of the
Lockerbie settlement and its renunciation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and
the lifting of the UN and US Libya-specific trade sanctions in September 2003 and 2004,
Libya is now seriously examining its economic options. The main challenge of Libya is
to promote the growth of the non-oil sector, and spur the diversification of the economy.
Hence the Libyan government began moving the economy from a planned economy to a
more market-oriented system. As a consequence, the pace of economic and structural
reforms has picked up, and some progress has been made in recent years to liberalize the
economy, such as unifying the exchange rate, issuing a new bank law to strengthen the
role of the Central Bank of Libya, opening the banking sector to local and foreign
competition, and the privatization of some state-owned enterprises. Since then, reforms
in various fields have progressed (WB, 2006).
However, because of its chronic inability to diversify the economy away from the
oil and gas sectors, Libyan fiscal policy continues to be dominated by the amount of oil
25
revenues generated for the government and the need to support the huge burden of State
Owned Enterprise (SOE) and civil service employment, and maintain the extensive
subsidy system. As at mid-2006, Libya's macroeconomic position remained strong and is
projected to remain as such over the medium term, largely of course because of the high
international price for Libya's crude oil. This averaged around US $38 for the year 2004,
US $50.64 for 2005, and US $63.05 for 2005 up to mid September (OPEC, 2005).
Income per capita: Table 3.1 shows that Libyan income per capita increased from
LYD 642 in 1970 to LYD 1582 in 1990 with average growth rate of 4.8% However, the
development of Libyan income per capita reflects the changes in the country's oil
revenues. The table also shows that the increase in the income per capita to LYD 3166 in
1980 because of the rise in oil revenues that year. By contrast, it slumped to LYD 1650
in 1988 following the declining in oil revenues; nevertheless, it increased again in the
early 1990s. following the oil revenues (LSPE, 1991).
Table 3.1: Growth of average income per capita as percentage of gross
national product for the period 1970-1990 (LYD)
Year Gross National
Product Population
Income per capita (LYD)
Income per capita ($)
1970 1288.3 2006 642 2169 1975 3674.3 2683 1369 4624 1980 10277.3 3245.8 3166 10694 1985 8050.2 3668.2 2195 7414 1988 6967.5 4224.4 1650 5572 1990 6772 4848.8 1582 5221 1991 8900 5155 1727 5699
Annual average growth during the period 1970-1990
9.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8%
Source: Libyan Secretariat of Planning and Economics (1991).
26
Real GDP and Macroeconomic performance; has been shaped by fluctuations in
oil revenues. Real GDP growth was modest and volatile during the 1990s, shaped by
changes in the price of oil and reflecting the decline in oil production as a consequence
of economic sanctions enforced by the US and the UN since 1986.6 The average growth
during that period was about 2.6 percent, with a peak of 13.5 percent recorded in 1991
and downturns in 1994, 1998, and 1999. During the 1990s, non-oil GDP growth was
slow and volatile as well, at 3 percent on average, owing to pervasive state controls and
the decline of government revenues. As sanctions were suspended by the UN in
1999,and oil prices rose, growth has gradually picked up (Table 3.2), (IMF, 2006).
Table 3.2 : Libya: Summary macroeconomic performance 1991-2005
Source: CBL (2005); & IMF (2006)
1991-94
1995-98
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
National income and Prices (%) Real GDP Real Non‐Oil GDP Real per capita
3.4 3.7 1.4
1.8 2.6 -0.2
-0.4 0.9 -2.3
1.1 3.0 -1.2
4.5 6.8 2.5
3.3 4.7 1.2
9.1 2.2 7.0
4.6 4.1 2.5
3.5 4.6
Balance of Payments (billion of US$ unless otherwise noted) Current account balance as a % of GDP
-0.04 -0.2
0.8 2.6
1.6 5.4
6.5 18.8
4.1 13.8
0.6 2.9
5.0 21.5
7.3 24.2
16.0 40.8
Central Government Finances (% of GDP) Revenue Expenditure Overall balance Non‐hydrocarbon Overall Balance
30.6 30.7 -0.1 -16
36.5 34 2.5
-20.6
39.8 32.8 6.9
-10.5
45.7 31.3 14.4 -17
43.1 44.3 -1.2
-30.3
51.4 41.2 10.2 -30.2
54.4 44.6 9.8
-37.6
59.1 44.0 15.1 -36.1
73 41.2 31.8 -36.0
6 US sanctions were introduced in 1986, prohibiting US companies from any trade or financial dealings with Libya, while freezing Libyan assets in the US. UN sanctions were imposed in 1992, suspended in 1999, and lifted in 2003. US sanctions were lifted in 2004.
27
Reflecting significantly higher oil production and prices, Libya’s economic
performance has recently improved. The macroeconomic situation remains strong , with
real GDP growing at an estimated 3.5 percent in 2005, slightly down from 4.6 percent in
2004. Growth of non-oil GDP has accelerated to 4.6 percent in 2005 and 4.1 percent in
2004, up from 2.2 percent in 2003. Non-oil GDP growth was broad-based, driven by
construction and utilities, such as electricity, gas and water, but also trade, hotels,
transportation, and other services. However, growth in manufacturing and agriculture has
remained tame. Non-oil growth would need to further accelerate on a sustained basis to
absorb the labour force which is projected to grow by 3.3 percent in the years ahead
(IMF, 2006).
3.4 The Financial Sector in Libya
One of the undoubted major problems faced Libya is the lack of depth of its
banking sector and financial markets, which is important of successfully attracting
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) . This connectivity between FDI inflows and financial
market depth is discussed at length by Omran and Bobol (2003) who examines the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as an FDI recipient. His view is that "the
emerging literature on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) now stipulates that FDI's
positive impact on growth depends on absorptive capacities. Prime among these
capacities is financial development”, and they find that "Arab FDI will have a
favourable effect on growth if interacted with financial variables at a given threshold
level of development". In his analysis of these thresholds their findings are that Libya,
Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen are below the desired threshold, whereas Syria is
28
almost equal to it. All the other countries, however, especially Lebanon, Tunisia, and
UAE, are comfortably above it (Omran and Bobol 2003, pp.231).
Promoting the financial system providing payments services, mobilizing savings,
and efficiently allocating financing for investment is a key issue of a well-functioning
market economy. Well-functioning financial systems ensure firms the ability to seize
emerging investment opportunities and reduce the reliance of small firms to internally
generated cash. They also impose discipline on firm’s thus driving efficiency, both
directly and by facilitating new investment and market entry, and according to empirical
evidence, doubling private credit as a share of GDP is associated with an increase in
average long-term growth of almost two percentage points (WB, 2004).
In Libya there is substantial room for gains, as credit to the private sector is still
very limited, and total domestic credit is a small fraction of GDP compared to other
upper middle-income countries-including oil-producing countries (Figure, 3.1). Banking
represents the backbone of the Libyan financial system, but the operation of banks has
been hampered by widespread state ownership, a long tradition of directed credit to state-
owned enterprises, controlled interest rates, and absence of credit culture. The
government has embarked on a program to strengthen the banking system, privatize the
state-owned banks, and promote the financial industry outside the banking system (WB,
2006).
29
Figure 3.1: Domestic Credits, % of GDP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Domestic credits, % of GDP
Sources: World Development Report (2004): A Better Investment Climate for Everyone, Washington DC.
3.4.1 Modernizing Libya's Financial Sector
Legislation in Libya such as Law (No. 5, 1997)7 which provides for the promotion
of foreign capital investment, and more recently Banking Laws (No. 1 and 2, 2005) have
demonstrated the seriousness of Libya's policy makers regarding economic reform and
the privatization and deregulation of its centralized economy, the legacy of the
nationalization drive of the 1970s. Part of this process is a desire to attract FDI into
Libya, with massive amounts of investment required, especially to overhaul the ageing
and technologically antiquated hydrocarbon, refining and petrochemical sectors, the
infrastructure deficit, as well as revitalizing the tourist, service and, manufacturing
industries (CBL, 2005).
7 For more information on the law article see CBL website/Laws and Regulations. http://www.cbl.gov.ly/en/pdf
30
A research survey by Borensztein et al (1998) shows that the weakness of
development of financial institutions and markets could impact negatively on the ability
of the national economy to take advantage of the potential benefits of the FDI. In other
words, inefficient institutions and financial markets of any state may mean that the
economy would not be able to cope with or absorb capital flows, whether short or long
term.
Since the demise of the former Soviet Union, much literature has emerged about
banking reform in transition countries, and a useful way of distinguishing and deciding
on reform methodologies is to compare two basic approaches, either new entry or
rehabilitation. Claessens (1995) Indicates that the rehabilitation approach is the re-
capitalization of banks in the state, in cooperating with an intensive programme of
institutional development and privatization in the end. This approach is particularly
exemplified in Poland and Hungary. While the new entry approach depends mainly on
privatization of the state-owned banks, and the entry of new banks, in some cases are
may require the liquidation of some old banks. This approach is exemplified from Russia
and Estonia where rapid expansion in the number of banks, for example, in Russia from
5 banks in 1989 to 2.500 in 1995 (Claessens, 1995).
In the early stages of reform it may not be evident that a consistent financial
approach at all is being practised, and the reform process may include aspects of both
approaches. In Libya, as elsewhere, the situation is even more complicated by the fact
that banking reform is not taking place in a vacuum, but is closely related to an overall
reform agenda aimed at both the privatization of many inefficient SOEs, as well as a
31
conscious effort by the government to attract FDI into such industries as tourism,
manufacturing, and agriculture. This is seen as crucial in order to diversify the economy
away from overdependence on revenue from hydrocarbons (Omran and Bobol 2003).
It can be said that, generally speaking, the financial sector in Libya has been
solidly based in law, and this applies also to the bank nationalization exercise, which
took place after the 1969 revolution. Even before this, in 1963 Law No. 4 "Promulgating
the Banking Law" was gazetted, and in Chap. 1, entitled "The Central Bank", the
National Bank of Libya was replaced by the CBL, and provisions for its establishment
and management were laid down, such as the sole right to issue currency, with the
responsibility for maintaining monetary stability and the external value of the Libyan
currency, as well as for regulating credit (CBL, 2006).
The situation up to 1987 was that in addition to the National Commercial Bank,
other commercial banks in operation included the Jamahiriya Bank (formerly Barclay's
Bank), the Al-Sahari Bank (formerly the Banco di Sicilia), the Ummah Bank (formerly
the Banco di Roma), and the Wahda Bank, formed in 1970 from the merger of five other
banks. Since the mid-1990s the Libyan government has been actively encouraging the
setting-up of regional or Ahliah banks, and several new banking licences were issued,
leading to the situation that by 2005, there were a total of 54 banks in operation,
comprising 6 commercial banks, 4 specialized banks, and 44 regional or Ahliah Banks
(Table 3.3), (CBL, 2006).
32
The acceleration of the liberalization process for the Libyan banking and insurance
sectors to allow for foreign ownership and the establishment of the Libyan Stock
Exchange are urgently required if the ongoing privatization process as well as the many
efforts made to attract FDI is to be assured (IMF, 2006)
The next section will review the measures that the Libyan government have
launched to support the financial sector reforms.
Table 3.3: Number of branches and agencies of commercial banks with municipalities.
Cities National Commercial Bank
Jamahiriya Bank
Ummah Bank
Wahda Bank
Al-Sahari Bank
Trade & Development Bank
Total
Tripoli
15 22 18 16 11 2 84
Benghazi
5 7 3 14 8 2 39
Sebha
7 7 5 1 4 - 24
Zawia
5 6 7 7 6 - 31
Sirte
7 11 9 12 4 2 45
Jebel Akhdar
14 6 1 10 5 1 37
Jebel Algerbee
5 7 7 9 1 - 29
Total
58 66 50 69 39 7 289
Sources: *CBL (2006) Libya annual report.
3.4.2 Priorities in Financial Sector Reform
The Libyan government and the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) have launched a
series of measures in support of financial sector reforms. A particular focus of the
program is the restructuring of state-owned banks and, for some of them, an adjustment
33
in ownership structure to include or increase private sector participation in the capital of
such banks. In this context, the authorities have already embarked on significant steps8
in:
• Re-assessing the legal framework for the banking system, with the passing of the new
Banking Law (No. 1/2005), as well as the Anti-Money Laundering Law (No. 2/2005).
The new banking law reinforces the independence of the central bank of Libya (CBL)
and offers a good legal framework for the regulation of banking activities.
• Partial privatization through public sale of shares of the AI-Sahari Bank, and
preparation for the privatisation of the Wihda Bank.
• Re-capitalization of all five public banks, as well as licenses granted to four private
banks and one foreign bank.
• Merging of 21 regional banks into one bank.
• Reinforcing o f banking supervision capacity.
• Partial interest rate liberalization, exchange rate unification and foreign exchange
liberalization.
• Granting of independence to public commercial banks to close non profitable
branches.
• Authorizing Libyan commercial banks to lend to foreign firms operating in Libya.
• Strengthening regulatory and prudential oversight.
• Devising plans for balance sheet restructuring o f state-owned banks.
• Charting the path for privatization of state-owned banks.
• Building the legal and regulatory underpinnings for the insurance industry, and
setting-up the legal and institutional framework for the launch of the stock market.
8 For more details see IMF (2006) Staff report for the Article IV Consultation with Libya (CBL).
34
This section introduced some of the measures proclaimed by the Libyan
government under the auspices of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) in support of financial sector reforms, as well as moving the
economy from a planned economy to a more market-oriented system. As a consequence,
according to the IMF report (2006) some progress has been made in recent years to
liberalize the economy, such as unifying the exchange rate, issuing new bank law to
strengthen the role of the Central Bank of Libya and opening the banking sector to local
and foreign competition, and the introduction privatization of some state-owned
enterprises. Since then, reforms in various fields have progressed.
3.5 Libyan Stock Market.
In the last 15 years many Arab countries have embarked on economic
diversification, including the creation of stock markets and their liberalization and
privatization. Their aims have been varied to provide greater financial depth to their
economies, making available a source of finance to nascent indigenous firms for
expansion and diversification, to provide absorptive capacity for the privatization or
deregulation of many state-run telecommunications or basic infrastructure providing
state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or to improve corporate governance for an evolving
private sector.
The importance of establishing the financial markets in Libya comes for savings
and funds investment in securities to benefit the national economy and to ensure the
safety and accuracy of transactions and ensures interaction between the powers of supply
and demand to define prices and protect investors.
35
3.5.1 Steps of Establishment
As part of the government monetary policy, there have been many discussions on
the role of financial institutions and markets due to the urgent need for the stock market
in Libya as a step forward to improve the financial sector and restructuring the Libyan
economy. Hence, the enabling legislation for this is already in place. Law (No. I of
2004), which amended Law (No. 21 of 2001), together with Regulation (No. 53 of 2004),
regarding the practice of economic activities. In the latter, Section. 10: Financial Paper
Markets, Article 59 states: "The rules related to the organization of the financial papers
market, determination of its competencies and body undertaking the supervision of its
works, and other relevant rules, are issued by virtue of a decision to be taken by the
Secretariat of the General People's Committee". This was followed up by the General
People’s Committee (The Interior Ministry) resolution No. 134 of 3 June 2006, which
paved the way for the establishment of a Libyan Stock Market ,and its headquarters will
be in Tripoli, but the main branch will be in Benghazi, with a capital of LYD20 million
divided into 2 million shares of LYD10 each.
Under the auspices of the Secretary of Economy, Trade and Investment. “The
market consists of nine departments; (1) Trading Department. (2) Central Depository
and Registry. (3) Membership and Production Affairs. (4) Department of Financial and
Administrative Affairs. (5) Department of Research, Studies and Development. (6)
Department of Control, Oversight and Supervision. (7) Department of Legal Affairs. (8)
Department of Communications and Information Systems, and (9) Department of Public
and Private Relations” (CBL, 2006, p. 71).
36
The Libyan stock market (LSM) is relatively young and not fully developed; there
are seven companies which are currently listed in the stock market (Table 3.4), and these
firms began to issue shares at the end of 2006. The General People's Committee for
Economy and Trade (Ministry of Economy and Trade) aims to develop the LSM to bring
it into line with developments of the modern age of communication technology and
online trading.
Table 3.4: Companies which currently listed in the stock market
Source: Libyan Stock Market report for 2007.
Name of the Company Subscribed-in capital (in LYD million)
AL-Srai Bank for Trade and Investment 3.0
AL-Sahari Bank 126.0
AL-Wahba Bank 180.0
Bank of Trade and Investment 33.401
United Company for Insurance 10.0
Libyan Company for Insurance 50.0
AL-Sahari Company for Insurance 15.0
The government is seeking to develop the systems of the Libyan stock market,
including electronic trading, supervision and implementation of operations according to
the latest regulations in the global capital markets. However, the relations with regional
and global stock markets are vital to the development of the Libyan stock market and its
compliance with international standards and rules in this area.
Within this framework, the Libyan stock market has conducted agreements and
understandings with various Arab and global markets and benefits from training and
37
qualification courses for the market's staff. Therefore, according to International
Exhibition Organizers (2007), a cooperation agreement was signed between the Libyan
Stock market and the London stock market in London (on Feb 6th, 2007). The agreement
provides for the training of the officials in the Libyan stock market in Libya and London
in order to be eligible to manage the market, as well as development of the system from
time to time, and participation in seminars and conferences organized by the London
stock market. Below are some of the LSM cooperation agreements that have been signed
in the period between 2005 to 2007 with various Arab and global institutions9:
Agreement: Amman Stock Exchange Date: 19-07-2005 Location: Amman Agreement: Cairo and Alexandria Stock Exchanges Date: 24-07-2005 Location: Cairo Agreement: MISR for Central Clearance and Depository Date: 19-07-2006 Location: Tripoli Agreement: Talal Abu-Ghazalla College- Jordan Date: 12-10-2006 Location: Amman Agreement: Capital Market Authority in Egypt Date: 20-11-2006 Location: Cairo Agreement: Center for Research and Consultation of Garyounis University Date: 09-01-2007 Location: Benghazi Agreement: London Stock market Date: 06-02-2007 Location: London
9 For more information see LSM annual report (2007) on: http://www.libyastockmarket.com/pdf/Ver/annual‐Ar.pdf
38
Agreement: Crafton College Date: 15-10-2007 Location: London
Agreement: University of Reading Date: 15-10-2007 Location: London Agreement: Arab Society of Certified Accountants (ASCA) Date: 01-11-2007 Location: Amman
As well as joining the membership of the following international organizations:
• AMEDA (African and Middle East Depository Agency).
• ANNA (Association of National Numbering Agencies).
• ASEA (Arab Securities Exchange Association).
• Association of African Exchange.
• Arab Stock Markets Union10.
3.5.2 Market Regulation11
Establishment of the Libyan stock market (LSM) has taken into account the need to
pursue more sophisticated systems, and avoid the mistakes which faced other markets.
Therefore, it has prepared regulations governing the operation of the market to ensure the
integrity of circulation and preserve the rights of investors. In LSM the most significant
regulations for the capital market and related law acts are
• Act – Law of Public Trading on the Securities
10 Arab Stock Markets Union: was established to develop coordination between Arab states to achieve Arab markets’ common interests and to increase the efficiency of the role played by them in order to serve integration and common Arab social and economic development. (For further reading see; Bolbol, A. & Omran, M. 2004). 11 This section is largely based upon the LSM report of the Regulation for the Rules for Circulation Operations in the Libyan Stock Market.
39
• Act of Investment Funds
• Act of Bonds
• Companies Code
• Act of Privatization
The tasks of regulating dealing in the market is entrusted to the Legal Affairs
Department. The department has many tasks and responsibilities necessary to ensure no
violation of the rules, regulations and legislations of market operations and activities .
Accordingly, it supports the legal framework and increases the awareness of workers
and those who are dealing with the market.
The functions of the LSM departments can be summarized as follows:
3.5.2.1 The Tasks of the Legal Affairs Department:
a) Giving legal opinion for the related activities and replying to legal inquiries of the
other departments in the market.
b) Participation to prepare the rules, legislation, and regulations related to the market.
c) Preparing legal studies related to the different market operations and making out the
results and showing them to the market management committee.
d) Preparing and reviewing all the contracts and agreements drawn up for the market.
e) Following up any action brought by the market or brought against the market and
coordinating with the external advisor of the market about these actions.
f) Executing the issuing decisions of the court body relating to securities.
g) Investigating the complaints submitted by the market management to the department
from outside parties in order to respond them and remove the causes.
40
3.5.2.2 The Central Depository and Registry Department (CDR):
CDR is the backbone of the Libyan Stock Market (LSM) providing clearing and
settlement service to Libyan Stock Market.
The objectives of the CDR department:
Facilitate securities trade to encourage higher level of trading activities compared to what
used to take place under the previous system.
Apply the Delivery Versus Payment principle (DVP), which is the norm in international
capital markets.
The main activities and services of the CDR department;
a) Clearing and settlement of operation executed at (LSM).
b) Management of securities accounts for custodian banks and issuers.
c) Handing corporate actions (cash and stock dividend, etc) according to the issues
assemblies’ decisions.
d) Management of a pledge system for all securities lodged into the central depository.
e) Management of the settlement guarantee fund to eliminate suspended movements due
to broker’s defaults.
The SDR department contains:
a) Settlement Guarantee Fund Department (SGF):
The Settlement Guarantee Fund is one of the new mechanisms in the Capital
Market that aims to guarantee securities obligations resulting from trading at the Stock
Exchange. SGF is a pool of money containing contributions from its member
41
participants. Its basic role is to cover any possible risk in the Capital Market of resulting
from members themselves. The SGF capital is amended every three months according to
daily activity average of the SGF members.
The main aims: Guaranteeing the execution of financial or securities obligations
resulting from trading at the stock exchange and consequently attracting local and
foreign investments to deal in the Libyan stock market by guaranteeing the rights of all
parties in due time; also achieving stability and discipline in the market with the aim of
increasing the volume of transactions.
b) Central Depository Department:
Central depository is a system substituting dealings in material securities through
book entries, for dealings through paper certificates. The system allocates an account for
each investor in which it registers the stocks and bonds which he owns. The investor can
keep abreast of the securities that he owns from a statement sent to him on a regular basis
upon request (similar to the statement which he receivers from the bank). Ownership of
the securities for which paper certificates have been issued, is registered at the central
depository by depositing the paper certificates at LSM, which is responsible for the
management of this system. The ownership registration of securities for which no paper
certificates have been issued is done through the central depository system, on the basis
of a certificate to which is attached a list of security owners drawn up by the issuing
entity. According to the system, entities wishing to issue new securities can do so
without the need to print certificates, as the share allocated to each investor is recorded in
the central depository. When the investor sells part of his securities, the balance of
42
securities sold is transferred from the account of the investor, who has sold by virtue of
the central depository system, to the account of the investor buyer by the same system.
c) Securities Central Registry Department:
Central registry is the automated and developed alternative of shareholders records
maintained by securities issuers and the related services.
The Objectives of the Central Registry:
i. Adopt a uniform system for maintaining shareholder’s records.
ii. Facilitate access to securities information related data by shareholders and concerned
parties.
iii. Facilitate for the shareholders to receive their dues.
iv. Establish an automated and secure database to include securities and shareholders
data.
The Major Services Provided by the Central Registry:
i. Managing and maintaining shareholders records on behalf of securities issuers.
ii. Issuing statistics and reports for competent parties on the centrally deposited
securities.
iii. Enforcing the decisions adopted by the securities issuers including payments related
to securities ownership such as cash and stock dividends.
iv. Providing additional sophisticated services such as automated voting in the general
assembly and using smart cards in securities transactions.
43
Finally, the main aim of the CDR is to facilitate securities trade to encourage
higher level of trading activities compared to what used to take place under the previous
system and to increase the securities rotation rate as a result of settling the dues of the
Settlement Guarantee Fund members as the SGF pays its members’ obligation in case of
not paying the settlement.
3.6 Summary
This chapter discussed the Libyan political economy. It presented the Libyan
geography location, population. The chapters also reviewed a brief history of Libyan
economy, and highlighted the financial sector in Libya and reviewed the economic
developments during the past ten years. The last part clarified the steps which have been
taken to establish the Libyan stock market. The result of this survey showed that the
reform process continues apace, to assist competitiveness in the non-oil sector, ensuring
that economic reforms and diversification keep Libyan products internationally
competitive.
To date, the government's preparations since 1997 to reform the regulatory and
institutional framework to support the transition to a market economy have been
considerable, and given time, Libya's efforts to re-connect itself with the global economy
should undoubtedly be successfully achieved. But clearly such key issues as the initial
primitive level of economic development as well as the present magnitude of long-term
economic distortions in industrial structure and trade patterns need to be analyzed and
overcome.
44
CHAPTER 4 CAN THE STOCK MARKETS PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIBYA?
Today, in the twenty first century, it can be seen that stock market is the most
developed sector in the world economy, which is moving from being a national market to
an international market, from being an independent market to relatively a part of the
world integrated market, and from being a restricted market built on national laws, to a
cross borders market. The question that arises here is: what are the benefits of such sector
which is witnessing the most significant growth. To answer such question we found
contradictory views, due to the fact that the relationship between stock markets and
economic development and growth is one of the most debated issues in the recent
literature, which always tries to answer many questions such as; what is the role and
continuation of stock markets in developing the national economy, what is the direct and
indirect impact of opening a stock market on the national economy?.
However, it should be noted that the majority of studies discussed these issues and
reported evidences of strong positive correlation between stock market development and
economic growth due to the functions offered through the stock markets. Accordingly,
this section will explore the possible roles of the stock market in the Libyan economy, by
review of studies which conducted using some Arab stock markets which may be
summarized as follows:
45
First, a place for trading secondary equity market: The financial market is a place
to trade financial securities between agents who need money such as investors and
borrowers, and those who have excess cash as savers and lenders. Financial markets
produce the efficient place for financial intermediaries, and other concerned parties who
need to execute their trading, and to exchange funds and financial instruments based on
stated right prices (Abdurrahman, 2006).
The Arab stock markets are mainly dealing with secondary equity markets. The
value of the secondary market reached a new record in 2005 as expressed by the ratio of
market capitalizations to the national GDP of the Arab states. The share of market
capitalization to the GDP reached more than 100% for some Arab states including
Amman market. Doha market, Saudi market, Bahrain market and Kuwait market. In
general the average ratio of the Arab stock market to the GDP was about 97% in 2005-
2006, which is acceptable regarding other emerging economies; even if it is below
average for about four Arab stock markets. However, it might be considered as a
moderate level compared to the developed economies such as Hong Kong stock
exchange which had about 528% of the GDP in 2006 (WFE, 2007b).
Second, A place for trading the primary market: The second important function of
stock markets includes generating new investment and initiating new corporations. The
channels of primary markets are varied and may occur inside or out-side the stock
exchanges, primary market raised funds of about $ 15 trillion between 1991 and 1995 in
thirty two countries (Aylward and Glen, 2000). However, the traded value of primary
46
stocks as well as the new issues in the primary markets are still limited as expressed by
face value of total securities compared to the Arab secondary stock markets for the
majority of Arab states (AMF, 2006).
Third, other functions: The financial markets help the mutual funds, pension funds,
insurance companies, and households to articulate the relevant portfolios, diversify their
investment, and offer the opportunity of reducing risk, especially in case of having
foreign listed instruments in their national exchanges and vice versa. In addition, it may
introduce new financial instruments such as options, futures, warranties, indexed options
and indexed futures products. Finally, stock exchanges may serve the financial
intermediaries and institutions such as commercial and development banks, and
insurance companies, through offering the liquidity when needed and providing the
opportunity to invest any surplus when it is available.
In order to say whether Libya can have a fully functioning stock market comparing
with countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which have an
active stock markets. Some requirements for the development of a successful stock
market in Libya are in place while others are not which may slow down the process.
However, the conditions that need to be achieved can be summarized as follows12:
12 This part is largely based upon the IMF Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation.
47
Political, Economic and Legal Environment: It is essential that a legal framework
be quickly established and enforced to protect stock market participants and build up
confidence in Libyan stock market.
Libya seems to have a sufficient number of high income individuals who could
participate in the capital market. However, the institutional investors do not have good
alternatives sources of investment. More securities and physical investment opportunities
are needed in the economy. Additionally, the institutions involved in the capital market
need to have qualified staff. Thus, there is a need to increase the awareness of the staff. It
is doubtful whether the public is fully aware of why government is trying to develop the
capital market. Public awareness programme are required as soon as possible so that the
general public knows the aims of the capital market development.
The government participation is essential to develop the capital market in Libya.
The volume of shares in the market can be increased rapidly through the privatisation of
public sector bodies. Government would also have to provide incentives to the private
sector to encourage firms to go public, as well as needs to be greater promotion of the
advantages of raising long term capital through equities and bonds to the private sector.
There are a sufficient number of financial intermediaries for the current needs of
the Libyan economy. But there are no stockbrokers and dealers in the market.
Information gathering and analysis is a necessary part of a successful capital market .
48
Brokers and dealers help keep trading on the stock exchange active. Thus, existing
financial institutions need to be encouraged and perhaps assisted to train brokers and
dealers.
Tax Policies and Incentives: The tax changes implemented will assist free
enterprise and help capital market development The general reduction in taxes could
increase personal income and savings that could be converted to investment funds by
financial institutions. The tax review underway to simplify and standardize tax
requirements for companies in Libya would further assist capital market development.
Foreign ownership of local companies should be allowed but government could restrict
the ownership of assets deemed strategic to the national interest.
Finally, capital market development could help Libya to develop it is not sufficient
on its own for economic growth. It is only one of the many inputs necessary. Some
others are political stability, improved technology, positive real interest rates, a favorable
macro-economic environment and quality human resources. Income inequality could
intensify if the capital market is not monitored and adverse effects restrained early.
Nevertheless significant resources can be mobilized in the economy if there is a fully
functioning capital market with a corresponding high growth rate and suitable investment
alternatives.
49
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION
The primary focus of the study is on the stock markets, and whether there is an
association between stock market development and economic growth. Chapter 2 has
reviewed the literature on the relationship between stock markets development and
economic growth, referring to the financial sector and its importance in improving the
performance of stock markets.
Theoretically complex models have been developed to show the many channels
through which the development of financial markets affect and are affected by economic
growth. These studies have largely demonstrated a strong link between the financial
sector and economic growth. Moreover, research results regarding to the relationship
between stock market development and economic growth have been obtained from
cross- country growth regression, and provide a general picture of the relationship
although the details of may reasonably be expected to vary considerably across counties,
depending on specific institutions and circumstances. Generally, most of the literature
concludes that there is a positive relationship between stock markets and economic
growth. Also this chapter reviewed the main findings of the studies on the Arab Stock
Market performance.
Chapter 3, started with the geographical location of Libya, and reviews a brief
history of Libyan economy. It takes a close look at the financial sector and reviews the
economic developments during the past ten years, clarifying the steps that have been
50
taken to establish the Libyan stock market. In this connection, both for international
credibility and for self-assessment of the efficacy of economic reforms, it is crucial that a
system such as the IMF's General Data Dissemination System (GODS) is adopted and
practiced in Libya. This is a structured process through which countries regularly
upgrade and improve the quality of the data compiled and disseminated by their national
statistical systems over the long term, to meet the needs of macroeconomic analysis. In
this way Libya can gauge its progress in making major economic reforms in comparison
with other countries, as well countering present international criticism of the current lack
of transparency within the Libyan Government.
It is therefore of crucial importance that the establishment of a Libyan stock market
is treated as a matter of priority by the Libyan authorities. If not, there is a danger that
many legal reforms for the banking and commerce sectors recently approved and in
process, the formation of the Government Board for Ownership Transfer (GBOT) and
the Libyan privatization initiative itself, the devaluation of the LYD and tariff
liberalization, will all fail in their efforts to reform and modernize the Libyan economy.
Libyan policy makers themselves might ponder why the recent legislative and
privatization blitz have so far yielded so little dividends in terms of foreign investment
into Libya. Undoubtedly, one answer is that it is still very early in the reformist process
to expect tangible long-term results. But until the Libyan stock exchange is fully
operational, it is difficult to envisage the flow of FDI into Libya on the scale visualized
and planned by the Libyan policy makers.
51
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