Assessing the Cost-Effective Energy Saving Potential from...

Assessing the Cost-Effective Energy Saving Potential from Top-10 Appliances in India

Nikit Abhyankar, Nihar Shah, Virginie Letschert, Amol PhadkeLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

9th International Conference onEnergy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL)

September 13-15, 2017University of California, Irvine

Motivation

• Top-10 electrical appliances consume nearly 70% of the electricity in the country– Lighting, fans, room ACs, refrigerators, TV, motors, distribution transformers,

water heaters, and Agricultural (Ag) pumps

• Given the technology improvements and deep reduction in the cost of efficient components, significant efficiency enhancement is possible cost-effectively by switching to super-efficient products

• Our objective is to assess the total energy and peak load saving if the entire cost-effective potential existing today (2016) is fully captured by 2030. – i.e. by 2030, stock average energy efficiency reaches 2016’s cost-effective super-

efficiency levels (very conservative)

Energy Saving Potential from Top-10 Appliances in India 2

Indian cities are hot and populousCompared to other regions, climate in India has higher cooling requirements

Size of the bubble indicates population

ChennaiBangkok

MumbaiCalcutta

Delhi

Miami

Rio de Janeiro

Hong Kong

Shenzhen

Guangzhou

Shanghai Athens

Beijing

Los AngelesMadrid

Buenos AiresMexico City

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Cool

ing

Degr

ee D

ays p

er y

ear

3

Data source: Sivak (2009)

Energy Saving Potential from Top-10 Appliances in India

Room AC demand: Huge Increase Expected by 2030-2040

Appliance Penetration in Urban China

In India, room AC sales are growing at 10-15% per yr

Room AC prices (real) have fallen by 40% in the last decade

Current Room AC penetration is ~ 5%; could increase to >70% in ~20 years

4

Source: Zhou et al (2012)


Load shape in Indian cities is already changing

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

ly D

eman

d in

Mum

bai (

MW

)

Summer Winter

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hou

rly D

eman

d in

Del

hi (M

W)

Summer Winter

Mumbai Delhi

~2200 MW(60%)

~1600 MW(40%)

Load Curves on a Summer and Winter Day (Average) in Mumbai and Delhi

~850 MW(40%)

~700MW(25%)

5Energy Saving Potential from Top-10 Appliances in India

Methodology

• We create two scenarios:

– Business as Usual (BAU):

Appliance efficiency improves between 2016 and 2030 per the historical trajectory

– Efficient Future:

All new appliance sales between 2016 and 2030 are replaced by the current (2016) globally best available technology (BAT)

• We use BUENAS model to project the future appliance sales and stock


7

Current status of appliance efficiency, expected improvements, and globally best available technology

Key Results


Energy consumption from top-10 appliances will more than double between 2015 and 2030 (BAU)


667

808

1473

2015 2020 2030

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Cons

umpt

ion

by To

p-10

Ap

plia

nces

at b

us-b

ar (T

Wh/

yr)

BAU

• The growth is driven by rising incomes and sustained commercial / industrialgrowth

• ACs, Motors, and Ag Pumps together responsible for ~80% of the energyconsumption

• Peak load (evening concurrent) is dominated by ACs, Ag Pumps, and fans

114

163

293

2015 2020 2030

Tota

l Pea

k Lo

ad d

ue to

Top-

10 A

pplia

nces

at

bus-

bar (

GW

)

BAU

Energy Peak

667

808

1473

667 667

1172

2015 2020 2030

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Cons

umpt

ion

by To

p-10

Ap

plia

nces

at b

us-b

ar (T

Wh/

yr)

BAU Efficient Future

By 2030, over 300 TWh/yr could be saved cost-effectively


• Saving potential of~300 TWh/yr by 2030

• (~40% of incrementalconsumption between2015 and 2030)

• Avoided CO2 emissions= 200 MT/yr

• AC, Fans, WaterHeaters, and Ag Pumptogether generate~80% of the savings

• This is equivalent to~180GW of solar PV

Tubelight6%

Fans9% TV

2%

Water Heaters9%

Refrigerators4%

Room AC28%

Motors7%

Ag Pumps31%

DT4%

Share in Saving by 2030

Appliance efficiency could save ~70GW of peak load


• 70GW peak savingimplies avoiding~150 new powerplants of 500MWeach

• AC, Fans, and AgPump togethergenerate ~70% of thesavings (50GW)

• Significant potentialfor making thisdemand “smart”

Tubelights7%

Fans16%

TV4%

Refrigerators4%

Room Acs43%

Motors3%

Agricultural Pumps

21%

Distribution Transformers

2%

Share in Saving by 2030

114

163

293

132

221

2015 2020 2030

Tota

l Pea

k Lo

ad d

ue to

Top-

10 A

pplia

nces

at

bus-

bar (

GW

)

BAU Efficient Future

Entire energy saving potential is found to be cost-effective


Water Heaters

Ag Pumps Fans

TubelightDistribution

Transformers

TV

Refrigerators

Motors

Room AC

Consumer Tariff

LRMC

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

0 100 200 300

Cost

of C

onse

rved

Ele

ctric

ity (R

s/kW

h)

Total Energy Saving Potential at Bus-Bar in 2030 (TWh/yr)

Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is less than the Long-Run Marginal Cost(LRMC) of energy for efficiency improvement in all appliances

Average cost of the appliance portfolio = ~Rs 2.3/kWh

0

50

100

Peak Saving by2030 (GW)

0

100

200

300

400

Energy Saving by2030 (TWh/yr)

0

1

2

3

Cost of ConservedEnergy (Rs/kWh)

Sensitivity Analysis


392

225

93

53

3.0

1.8

We conducted sensitivity analysis on appliance sales growth, hours of use, peak coincidence factors, and BAU efficiency improvement

Policies and programs for achieving this potential

• Coordinated push (standards) and pull (awards, labels, and incentives)– Widen and deepen the existing standards program

o Cover more appliances, increase stringency, revise test procedures– Widen label bands to create product differentiation– Incentive (or other) programs can pull the top of the market

o Ratepayer / third party funded or volume aggregation

• Set long term targets for ensuring industry support and compliance – E.g. Japan’s top-runner program

• Complementary policies can create significant additional benefits– Smart (demand response ready) appliances can help RE grid integration– Improved buildings design can delay the appliance demand– Low-GWP refrigerants can double the overall GHG reduction benefits


Conclusion

• Growing appliance demand would have significant impact on the Indian power sector – Top-10 appliances will consume ~300GW by 2030 (~80% of system peak)

• There is significant cost-effective energy saving potential – 40% of the additional consumption could be saved cost-effectively – Saving of ~300 TWh/yr and 70GW of peak load by 2030

• Coordinated market push, pull, and complementary policies are needed


Thank You

Contact:Nikit Abhyankar

[email protected]


Supplementary material



Appliance What is current status andexpected improvements ?

What is the Best Available Technology (BAT)?

LampsIncandescent / CFL moving

to LED (~120 lumens/W)LED (~120 lumes/W)

FTLs T-8, moving to LED LED (~120 lumes/W)

FansSingle phase induction

motor; no major change (voluntary labels)

BLDC fan with efficient blade design

TVOld stock is CRT;

new sales LCD/LEDLED backlit w/ reflective

polarizer & dimming

Water Heaters Electric geysersNatural Gas/LPG water

heaters


20

Appliance What is the current status andexpected improvements ?

What is the Best Available Technology (BAT)?

RefrigeratorsBAU efficiency improving

rapidly due to MEPS revisionThicker insulation, VIPs,

efficient compressor, gasket

ACOld stock is fixed speed;

moving toward inverter ACs

Inverter AC with efficient components (compressor, HE,

expansion valves)

MotorsIE 1 or IE 2 motors;

No major change (voluntary labels)

IE 3++ (or IE5) motors

AG PumpsMono-block / submersible pumps; No major change

(voluntary labels)

Brushless DC pump and efficient piping system

Distribution Transformers

Standard components; No major change

Reduction in losses with better material and cooling



How much efficiency improvement is possible with BAT?


Appliance 2016 BAU (kWh/yr)

2030 BAU (kWh/yr)

2016 BAT (kWh/yr)

BAT Incremental Cost (Rs)

Lamps 72 10 9 40

FTLs 95 44 16 50

Fans 120 120 48 840

TV 83 39 33 540

Water Heaters 240 146 - 500

Refrigerators 399 69 60 4,652

AC 1,992 1,269 797 54,401

Motors 9,196 9,196 8,910 7,000

AG Pumps 5,914 5,914 3,593 10,000

Distribution Transformers 2,186 2,186 905 20,000

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