Assessing Army Deployments to OEF/OIF Tim Bonds Dave Baiocchi September 2009.
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Transcript of Assessing Army Deployments to OEF/OIF Tim Bonds Dave Baiocchi September 2009.
Assessing Army Deploymentsto OEF/OIF
Tim BondsDave Baiocchi
September 2009
Deployments to OEF/OIF-2 Jul-09
Objective: Determine How Close Army Is To Providing Maximum Flow of Soldiers To OIF/OEF
• Approach: High-level assessment using data from OSD sources– Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) analyses for USD (P&R)
• Provides “snapshots” of troop deployments to OIF/OEF
• Assess Army Soldier deployments to date– Extend analyses to assess cumulative deployments and troop flows– How Army manages troop needs of OIF/OEF and other assigned
missions and tasks• Where data available, look to other Services as a benchmark
– We will focus on “Active Duty” Soldiers
• Assess degree to which Army could provide more, considering: – Flow of Soldiers from recruits to veterans (to ending time in service)– Balance between OIF/OEF and other important missions and activities
Deployments to OEF/OIF-3 Jul-09
DMDC Presentation Provides “Snapshot” Of Current Force
Army
11.1%
36.1%
21.0% 31.7%
Navy
8.0%
44.9%17.0%
30.2%
(Based on end strength as of December 31, 2008)
Marine Corps
7.9%
45.8%18.6%
27.8%
Air Force
47.6%14.0%
26.2%
12.2%
* Based on all active duty regular Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps members in the DMDC Active Duty End Strength Files and deployments in the CTS Deployment File
What other insights can these data reveal about Army deployments?
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
Deployments to OEF/OIF-4 Jul-09
Cumulative Total Army Deployment: Over 1 Million Troop-Years To OIF/OEF
Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other
Missions and Activities
Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)
Cu
mu
lati
ve T
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p-Y
ears
Deployments to OEF/OIF-5 Jul-09
Army Generating Largest Share Of DoD Active Duty OIF-OEF Troop Deployments …
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p-Y
ears
Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)
19%15% 15%
52% of DoD Active Duty
Deployments
*Percentages have been rounded up
Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other
Missions and Activities
Deployments to OEF/OIF-6 Jul-09
19%15% 15%
… In Total And As A Percentage Of FY2008 DoD Active Duty Assigned Strength
24%
14%
23%
39% of DoD Active Duty
Strength
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p-Y
ears
52% of DoD Active Duty
Deployments
Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other
Missions and Activities
Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)
*Percentages have been rounded up
Deployments to OEF/OIF-7 Jul-09
New Recruits In Training
Ending Time Of Service
Soldiers That Have Deployed
to OIF/OEF
Forces Assigned toOther Missions
Growth Of Deployed Pool Depends Upon Flow Of Soldiers Into, Through, And Out Of Army
Source: DMDC(2008)
Theater ForcesMedical Corps
Air DefenseNational Intel
Deployments to OEF/OIF-8 Jul-09
New Recruits117,00021% of
Active Duty
Ending Time Of Service
Soldiers That Have Deployed
to OIF/OEF
Forces Assigned toOther Missions
Snapshot Of Army Troop Flows: CY2008
Source: DMDC(2008) and US Army HRC
In Training
376,00068% of
Active Duty
64,00011% of
Active Duty
Deployments to OEF/OIF-9 Jul-09
Deployed Soldiers Have Highest Cumulative Deployment Times …
(As Of June 2008)
25 - 37+ Months61,000 Soldiers
13 - 24 Months167,000 Soldiers
1 - 12 Months135,000 Soldiers
DMDC Data: June 2008 DMDC Data: June 2008
Deployments to OEF/OIF-10 Jul-09
… And Soldier Numbers And Cumulative Deployed Time Continues To Grow
DMDC Data: December 2008DMDC Data: December 2008
25 - 41+ Months79,000 Soldiers
13 - 24 Months174,000 Soldiers
1 - 12 Months122,000 Soldiers
(As Of December 2008)
Deployments to OEF/OIF-11 Jul-09
Bulk Of Deployment Burden Falls On Mid-Grade Soldiers -- And Junior Soldiers Starting Out
• Junior Soldiers are on their way up the curve
• Army Warrants, E-5 to E-9, and O-3 and O-4 highest cumulative time
– across all services and pay grades
• May take time to deploy pool of senior NCOs and Officers
Army
Marine Corps
Navy
Air Force
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
Deployments to OEF/OIF-12 Jul-09
Army Is Also Relatively Efficient In Providing Forces(FY08 OSD Estimate)
Source: Defense Manpower Requirements Report, FY2009, ODUSD(PI)(RQ)
Tro
op
s (
K)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Army Navy Marine Corps Air Force
ForcesInfrastructure
71%
29%
55%
45%
68%
32%
56%
44%
Deployments to OEF/OIF-13 Jul-09
Who Are Soldiers That Have “Not Yet” Deployed?
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
• Starting Point: DMDC numbers for “Active Duty” Army Deployments to OEF/OIF
• We will focus on “Not yet” category
– Represents roughly 1/3 of Active Duty Force
Not yet32.7%
(182,000)
Once33.5%
(187,000)
Twice20.6%
(115,000)
Three Or More13.3%
(74,000)
Deployments to OEF/OIF-14 Jul-09
New Soldiers Make Up Majority of “Not Yet” Deployed
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
• 117,000 Soldiers average 2 or less years in Army
– 87K Average 1 year
– 30K Average 2 years
– Nearly all appear to be in IET, or preparing with unit for first deployment
– Some actually deployed to Korea, Europe, etc.
– Includes USMA cadets
• 64,000 Soldiers average 3 or more years
– 9000 of them deployed to Korea, Europe, etc
– Less than 10% of force in CONUS and trained, but “not yet” deployed (55,000 Soldiers)
1 yrs47.9%
(87,000)
2 yrs16.8%
(30,400)
3 yrs11.2%
(20,300)
8+ yrs12.6%
(22,900)4 - 7 yrs11.6%
(21,000)
Deployments to OEF/OIF-15 Jul-09
Remaining Soldiers Supporting Other Missions Or Preparing To Deploy
TRADOC 13,000
MTOE Units 25,000
TDA Units 17,000
New To Army(1 - 2 yrs)
117,000
Have Deployed 376,000
55,000
Soldiers
Military Occupational
Specialty
CONUS Not Yet
Deployed
Medical/ Health
10,519
Intelligence/Networks
5815
Air Defense 1921
Recruiting 2289
Exemplar MOSs
= 20,544 Soldiers= 20,544 Soldiers
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
Korea, Overseas9,000
Deployments to OEF/OIF-16 Jul-09
May Take Time To Rotate Some Soldier Specialties Into Deploying Units
Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)
TRADOC 13,000
MTOE Units 25,000
TDA Units 17,000
New To Army(1 - 2 yrs)
117,000
Have Deployed 376,000
55,000
Soldiers
Military Occupational
Specialty
CONUS Not Yet
Deployed
Deployed Peers
Medical/ Health
10,519 23904
Intelligence/Networks
5815 36155
Air Defense 1921 4134
Recruiting 2289 N/A
Exemplar MOSs
20,544 Soldiers
Deployments to OEF/OIF-17 Jul-09
Summary• Our assessment of CY 2008 Army concludes that:
– 68% have deployed to OIF/OEF – have large cumulative deployed time– 21% are new to Army – still training, integrating, or preparing to deploy– 1.5% are deployed to other overseas locations– [At least] 3.5% are in jobs key to current global military operations
• Total: 94% [or more] appear to be where needed to support priority national missions and activities
• Therefore: Army is close to providing maximum Soldier flow– More detailed analysis required to assess remaining 6%
• Includes a diverse mix of USMA students, special, “rebalanced”, injured, other, etc
• At any given time, will always be some Soldiers who have not deployed YET
– Large number of Soldiers entering Army each year need time to train– Experienced Soldiers needed to generate deploying forces– Some MOSs critical for other Army-assigned missions
Deployments to OEF/OIF-18 Jul-09
Soldiers Committed To OIF/OEF
Source: DMDC
Soldiers
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
SEP2001
MAR2002
SEP2002
MAR2003
SEP2003
MAR2004
SEP2004
MAR2005
SEP2005
MAR2006
SEP2006
MAR2007
SEP2007
MAR2008
SEP2008
MAR2009
Army National GuardArmy ReserveArmy Active Duty
Deployments to OEF/OIF-19 Jul-09Source: DMDC
Soldiers