Asian American Millennials: The Next Wave of Change
Transcript of Asian American Millennials: The Next Wave of Change
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Asian American Millennials:
The Next Wave of Change
Dr. Raphael J. Sonenshein
The PBI-CalState LA Poll
Cal State LA Downtown Facility
June 29, 2016
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Thank You to Our Partner:
Advancing Justice - LA
Stewart Kwoh
Daniel Ichinose
Joanna Lee
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• Charlie Woo, Founder and Chair of CAUSE
• Dr. Jun Xing, Dean of Undergraduate Studies at Cal State LA
• Dr. Ping Yao, Director of Asian and Asian American Studies at Cal State LA
• Dr. Scott Bowman, Dean of Natural and Social Sciences at Cal State LA
• Dr. Gar Culbert, Professor of Political Science at Cal State LA
• Susan Pinkus, PBI Polling Consultant
• PBI and Cal State LA Staff
• And the President and Provost of Cal State LA for supporting our polling
Thank you to Our PBI Asian American Poll Working Group
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The Challenges of Polling Asian Americans*
• Too few Asian Americans in many national surveys for valid analysis.
• “Asian American” includes differing national origins.
• Language diversity may require translation of questionnaire.
• Need larger overall samples, Asian American only polls, or oversampling.
• *George Gao, Pew Research Center, May 11, 2016
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/05/11/the-challenges-of-polling-
asian-americans/
• AND geographic concentration: California holds the largest share of Asian
Americans, which complicates national polling of Asian Americans.
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How Our Poll Addresses These Challenges
• Geographic concentration: Los Angeles County’s Asian American Voters
• Asian Americans only: 1608 overall, with sufficient samples of four major sub groups.
• Survey offered in multiple languages.
• Time consuming but allows detailed analysis
• Tradeoffs: Not as timely as election polls, but deeper analysis is possible
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LA County: Asian American Population
• 30.9% of Asian Americans in the United States live in California
• 13.7% of California’s Asian Americans reside in Los Angeles County.
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
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1500
1990 2000 2010
Asia
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Year
925,561
1,137,500
1,346,865
U.S. Census Bureau, 2010
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U.S. Census Bureau, 2010
LA County Population by National Origin
Nationality Population
Chinese
Japanese
Korean
Filipino
350,119
102,287
216,501
322,110
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Methodology
• Polled 1,608 Asian American Voters from LA County
between October 22, 2015 and January 24, 2016
• Performed via live telephone interviews in five Asian
languages (Cantonese, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin,
and Tagalog) and English
• Results were weighted by:
• Region (LA City, San Gabriel Valley, and remainder
of LA County)
• Ethnicity (Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, and Korean)
• Age (18-44 and 45+)
• Nativity (foreign vs. native born)
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Asian American Voters are Very Well Educated.
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
HS degree, GED or less 32% 22% 18% 32% 27%
College degree 49% 63% 53% 51% 52%
Graduate degree 19% 15% 30% 18% 21%
Education by Ethnicity
Education by Age
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total
HS degree, GED or less 29% 17% 24% 37% 27%
College degree 57% 52% 55% 48% 52%
Graduate degree 14% 31% 21% 15% 21%
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Younger voters have high English proficiency
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total
Very well 83% 64% 46% 28% 53%
Well 12% 23% 33% 21% 23%
Not well 4% 9% 15% 31% 16%
Not at all 1% 4% 5% 20% 8%
English Language Proficiency by Age
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…as do Japanese-Americans and Filipino-Americans
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
Very well 40% 61% 87% 35% 53%
Well 24% 30% 11% 21% 23%
Not well 24% 7% 3% 26% 16%
Not at all 12% 2% 0% 19% 8%
English Language Proficiency by Ethnicity
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18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All
Never 46% 48% 40% 34% 42%
Some/Often 46% 50% 59% 64% 55%
Religiosity by Age
Religiosity is higher among older voters
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…and among the foreign born
Religiosity by Nativity
Foreign Born Native Born Total
Never 39% 46% 42%
Some 21% 26% 23%
Often 39% 23% 32%
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…and varies by ethnicity
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
Never 58% 21% 49% 32% 42%
Some 19% 18% 28% 11% 23%
Often 20% 53% 22% 55% 32%
Religiosity by Ethnicity
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Overall, the majority of voters are foreign born
Nativity by Ethnicity
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
Foreign Born 63% 61% 11% 71% 59%
Native Born 37% 40% 89% 29% 42%
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….but, the younger and older voters are mirror images
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total
Foreign Born 17% 52% 73% 79% 59%
Native Born 83% 48% 27% 21% 42%
Nativity by Age
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Most older voters follow Asian media, while most
younger voters lean towards English media.
Average Media Attention by Age
18-29 29% 3% 11% 7% 60% 10% 11% 5% 4%
30-44 31% 12% 11% 6% 64% 16% 16% 13% 9%
45-64 40% 20% 13% 12% 49% 17% 20% 9% 13%
65+ 43% 32% 22% 29% 13% 13% 28% 6% 15%
Total 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%
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Foreign born voters rely heavily on Asian Media.
Average Media Attention by Nativity
Foreign Born 34% 28% 11% 21% 37% 19% 25% 7% 16%
Native Born 39% 5% 21% 5% 56% 7% 12% 11% 5%
Total 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%
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Chinese-American and Korean-American voters lean
towards Asian media.
Average Media Attention by Ethnicity
Chinese 21% 22% 10% 23% 43% 27% 29% 10% 20%
Filipino 56% 10% 23% 4% 40% 2% 21% 4% 2%
Japanese 59% 6% 35% 2% 41% 4% 3% 12% 0%
Korean 30% 36% 8% 22% 47% 17% 26% 8% 19%
All 36% 18% 15% 14% 45% 14% 20% 9% 11%
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Younger voters are most likely to talk to friends but
least likely to donate money to campaigns.
Average Participation Rates by Age
18-29 34% 19% 71% 12% 13% 16%
30-44 33% 22% 69% 20% 13% 23%
45-64 36% 30% 66% 14% 12% 27%
65+ 23% 18% 46% 9% 11% 28%
Total 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%
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National differences on participation
Average Participation Rates by Ethnicity
Chinese 19% 14% 53% 9% 10% 20%
Filipino 31% 25% 59% 14% 13% 26%
Japanese 48% 33% 73% 21% 17% 34%
Korean 23% 25% 63% 15% 9% 20%
All 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%
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Native born voters are more likely to participate
than foreign born voters.
Average Participation Rates by Nativity
Foreign Born 23% 17% 55% 9% 9% 22%
Native Born 41% 30% 72% 21% 15% 28%
Total 31% 22% 62% 14% 12% 24%
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On most issues, especially social ones, young voters are
more liberal than elders.
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All
Support Affordable Care Act 77% 67% 64% 56% 65%
Support Legal Path to Citizenship 73% 65% 50% 52% 59%
Support for CA Min Wage 68% 69% 70% 75% 71%
Support Same-Sex Marriage 81% 62% 49% 31% 53%
Legalize Abortions 68% 67% 57% 40% 57%
Undocumenteds Help Economy 49% 50% 46% 41% 46%
Asian-Am Representative Importance 68% 74% 72% 78% 73%
Republican Party ID 11% 19% 20% 23% 19%
Views on Issues by Age
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All groups favor greater Asian American representation.
Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All
Support Affordable Care Act 56% 69% 71% 71% 65%
Support Legal Path to Citizenship 46% 66% 60% 77% 59%
Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 68% 78% 67% 74% 71%
Support Same-Sex Marriage 45% 53% 80% 41% 54%
Legalize Abortions 60% 41% 76% 42% 57%
Undocumenteds Help Economy 39% 42% 50% 51% 41%
Asian-Am Representative Importance 77% 75% 67% 81% 74%
Republican Party ID 16% 24% 24% 20% 19%
Views on Issues by Ethnicity
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Native born voters are more socially liberal than foreign
born voters.
Foreign Born Native Born Total
Support Affordable Care Act 60% 72% 65%
Support Legal Path to Citizenship 52% 68% 59%
Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 74% 67% 71%
Support Same-Sex Marriage 38% 75% 53%
Legalize Abortions 48% 70% 57%
Undocumenteds Help Economy 44% 49% 46%
Asian-Am Representative Importance 76% 69% 73%
Republican Party ID 20% 18% 19%
Views on Issues by Nativity
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Male Female Total
Support Affordable Care Act 65% 64% 65%
Support Legal Path to Citizenship 61% 57% 59%
Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 67% 75% 71%
Support Same-Sex Marriage 56% 51% 53%
Legalize Abortions 60% 54% 57%
Undocumenteds Help Economy 48% 44% 46%
Asian-Am Representative Importance 68% 80% 73%
Republican Party ID 22% 16% 19%
Views on Issues by Gender
No obvious gender gap. Dig deeper?
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Asian American Voters Agree On
• Desire for representation
• Support for economic change, e.g. minimum wage
• Support for health care and immigration reform
• Significant religiosity overall, even among younger
voters.
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A New Generation is Reshaping the Community’s Voice.
• Native born
• Less religious, more liberal, more Democratic
• Drawing their information from English language media
• More likely to talk about politics with friends and family
• Becoming somewhat more like their fellow new generation in
other communities.
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But, the Older Generation is Still Powerful.
• 25.9% of Voters are between the ages 45 and 64
• 27.6% of Voters are 65 or older
• Language is critical for political mobilization
• More religious
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Challenges and Opportunities for Both
Parties
Democrats:
• Not as tuned into religiosity
• Struggling to inspire younger voters, more attuned to older
Democrats
• Enough targeted outreach to older Asian American voters?
• How to balance representation aspirations in their coalition
Republicans:
• More at ease with religiosity, but their policies are not popular
• Rely on older voter activism, not as comfortable with younger
voters
• Representation issue may help Republicans
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Consistent With a New National Election Poll by Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIA Vote) and Asian Americans Advancing
Justice (AAAJ)
• “Inclusion, not Exclusion: Spring 2016 Asian American Voter Survey”
• Survey of 1212 Asian American registered voters nationwide.
• “Asian Americans are shifting in party identification toward the Democratic Party.”
• “Young Asian Americans (18 to 34) are a key demographic to watch.” Far more likely than elders to identify with Democratic party; to approve of President Obama; and to support Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton.
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Join the Conversation!
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Cal State LA
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