Workshopon

RegionalClimateChangeandEnvironmentalResponseinHawaiʻ i

AsiaRoom‐IminInternationalConferenceCenter

UniversityofHawaiʻ iatMānoaCampus

hostedbytheInternationalPacificResearchCenter

July22‐23,2014

PurposeoftheMeeting Regional climate change research is dealing with the problem of estimating the physical changes in the natural environment on a local scale, whereas the driving forcing is acting on a global scale. A number of research projects sponsored by the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) and the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC) are currently in-vestigating new scientific data, methods and techniques to monitor environmental changes and to investigate their causes, and to model future environmental changes under a changing climate. One particular goal is to connect the physical global climate science with the biological sciences to understand how ecosystems respond regionally to time-dependent climatic changes. The primary goal of this workshop is to improve the mutual understanding for the scientific research methods in the two disciplines and to strengthen trans-disciplinary information exchange. In this 1 1/2-day workshop, we will bring together researchers that actively work on the regionalization of climate change scenarios for Hawaiʻi, and researchers in leading roles of understanding the consequences of climatic changes on ecosystems, biogeographic changes and bio-dynamical changes in Hawaiʻi. The first day will give participants the opportunity to present their research results to the audience and to communicate the latest information to the participating researchers. Ample of discussion time is planned in, which will allow participants to engage in scientific debates. Day two is intended to direct the discussions towards research solutions and scientific conclusions. In breakout groups, the participants will discuss in-depth the strengths and weaknesses of current research methods/ data, evaluate confidence/ uncertainty of research results, and identify solutions or improvement that appear most promising to advance our knowledge about regional environmental changes. ExpectedOutcomes

The workshop is expected to foster collaboration among the different PICSC-sponsored projects, to increase the awareness and understanding of the various scientific research methods and data products. Further, we want to enhance the overall communication among researchers with a wide range of different expertise. This includes (but is not limited to):

• Quantify the effects of climate change on complex ecosystems or selected species

• Identify possible feedbacks between biological changes and regional climate changes

• Find quantitative ways to track and measure uncertainties in the research process

• Define a priority-list of climate-change variables for environmental impact studies

• Foster the communication between ‘producers’ and ‘users’ of climate information

Agenda

Day1‐July22,2014

(AlltimesisHawaiʻ iStandardTime(HST))

8:00‐8:30am Setup8:30‐8:45am Registration8:45‐8:50am OpeningRemarks&Announcements8:50‐9:00am IntroductionofparticipantsSession1:ClimateChangeinHawaiʻ i:RecentTrendsandFutureProjections

Chair:TamaraWong,JonPriceThephysicalaspectsofregionalclimatechangeandconfidence/uncertaintyassessments

9:00‐9:15amHenryDiaz,NOAA,ESRLBoulder,CO

Enhancedwarmingwithelevation:Projectionsandobservationalevidence

9:15‐9:30amRyanLongman,Dept.ofGeography,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoaTemporalsolarradiationchangeathighelevationsinHawai‘i

9:30‐9:45amPao‐ShinChu,Dept.Meteorology,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoaRegionalprecipitationextremesinHawaiiundernon‐stationaryclimateconditions:Statisticalmodelinganddynamicaldownscaling

9:45‐10:00amKevinTrick,DavidField,HawaiiPacificUniversity

Betterunderstandingandquantifyingtheassociationbetweenlarge‐scaleclimateandthevariabilityinrainfallonthemainHawaiianIslands

10:00‐10:15amMaoyaBassiouni,PacificIslandsWaterScienceCenter,USGeologicalSurvey

Developmentofstatisticalmethodstoestimatefuturebaselineandlow‐flowcharacteristicsofungaugedstreamsinHawaiʻi

10:15‐10:30amShortpresentations: DavidBeilman,Dept.Geography,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoa VictoriaKeener,East‐WestCenter,PacificRISA MatthewWidlansky,IPRC,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoa OliverElisonTimm,DAES,UniversityatAlbany10:30‐10:45amBreak

Session1:ClimateChangeinHawaiʻ i:RecentTrendsandFutureProjections

(Chair:TamaraWong&JonPrice)10:45‐11:00amThomasGiambelluca,Dept.ofGeography,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoa ObservedandprojectedchangesinHawaiʻi'sclimate.11:00‐11:30amDieterMueller‐Dombois,Dept.Botany,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoa

BioticImpoverishment&ClimateChange:GlobalCausesofForestDecline?11:30‐12:15Discussion1:ClimateChangeinHawaiʻ i

(Moderators:ErikFranklin&AuroraKagawa‐Viviani)Climatechangegroupleadingdiscussion:Criticalreviewofthemethods,explainingsourcesofuncertainty,quantificationofconfidenceranges,synthesisofcurrentresults:agreementandambiguityinthedownscaledscenarios.

12:15‐1:45pmLunchBreak

(seemapforlunchoptionsoncampus)Session2:Environmental&EcosystemResponsetoClimateChange

Chair:(DavidField&OliverElisonTimm)Thescientificaspectsofenvironmentalandecosystemresponsetoclimatechange1:45‐2:00pm JimJacobi,PacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCenter,U.S.GeologicalSurvey

DevelopingtherevisedHI‐GAPlandcovermapandHawaiianIslandshabitatqualitymap

2:00‐2:15pm TamaraWong,JonathanPrice,JimJacobi,Dept.ofGeographyandEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofHawaiʻiatHilo,andPIERC

Modelingclimate‐drivenchangestodominantvegetationintheHawaiianIslands

Session2:Environmental&EcosystemResponsetoClimateChangeChair:(DavidField&OliverElisonTimm)

Thescientificaspectsofenvironmentalandecosystemresponsetoclimatechange2:15‐2:30pmKirstenOleson,Dept.ofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentalManagement,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoa

Usingecosystemservicemodelingtosupportridge‐to‐reefmanagementandconservationinHawaiiandthePacific

2:30‐2:45pmErikFranklin,HawaiiInstituteofMarineBiology,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoa

FuturecoralcommunityprojectionsfortheHawaiianIslands2:45‐:3:00pm TiffanyAnderson,CharlesFletcher,SOEST,UniversityofHawaiʻiatMānoa

Apracticalapproachtomappingshorelinechangeunderfuturesealevelrisescenarios3:00‐3:15pmBreak3:15‐3:30pmEbenPaxton,USGSPacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCenter

ArerecentpopulationtrendsinHawaiianforestbirdslinkedtoclimatechange?3:30‐3:45pmWei‘Joy’Liao,MikeSamuel,UniversityofWisconsin‐Madison

TheeffectsofclimatechangeonavianmalariaandHawaiianforestbirds3:45‐4:00pmRickCamp,HawaiʻiCooperativeStudiesUnit,UniversityofHawaiʻiatHilo

ChangingclimateandthealtitudinalrangeofavianmalariaintheHawaiianIslands‐anongoingconservationcrisisontheIslandofKaua‘i

4:00‐4:15pmBreak4:15‐5:00pmDiscussion2:ProjectedEnvironmentalChangesinHawaiʻ i

(Moderators:ThomasGiambelluca&AbbyFrazier)EcosystemResponsegroupleadingdiscussion:Criticallyassessourlatestresearchprogress,exchangemethodsthatcanimproveresearchattheinterfacesacrossourdisciplines,discussexperienceswithimportingclimatechangeproducts(usageintentionsandcaveats),strategicplanningforfutureproducts.5:00pmEndofDay1

Day2‐July23,2014

Breakoutgroupmeetings9:00‐10:30amBreakoutGroups

(a) Researchmethodsinregionalclimatechange:Currentstatus,limits,andfuturedirectionsChair:HenryF.Diaz&MatthewWidlansky

(b) Researchmethodsinregionalecosystemchanges:Currentstatus,limits,andfuturedirectionsChair:KirstenOleson&LaurenKaiser

(c) Exchangeofinformationbetweentworesearchdisciplines:dataformats,metadata,andcommunicationChair:VictoriaKeener&MaoyaBassiouni

10:30‐10:45amBreak10:45am‐12:15pmFinalDiscussion

(a) Reportsfromthebreakoutgroups(b) Recommendationsforfutureresearchstrategies,collaborations,andcommunications

12:15pmEndofWorkshop(Afternoon:KeyPIsdraftingworkshopreportforPICSC)

Localinformation:TheIminInternationalConferenceCenterislocated1777East‐WestRoadontheUHManoa.NoteontheUH‐CampusMapitiscalled“JeffersonHall”(Building#70)

RegularBusservicesbetweenWaikikiandCampus(Routes#13servesDoleStreetandEast‐WestStreet,#4servesthe‘Ewa’(westside)onUniversityAve).Faresare$2.50withontransferoption(2‐htimelimit).Visithttp://www.thebus.org/formoredetails.

Notes

Participants:

TiffanyAndersonUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeologyandGeophysicstranders@hawaii.edu

StephenAnthonyUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandsWaterScienceCentersanthony@usgs.gov

CarterT.AtkinsonUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCentercatkinson@usgs.gov

MaoyaBassiouniUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandsWaterScienceCentermbassiou@usgs.gov

DavidBeilmanUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeographybeilman@hawaii.edu

JeffBurgettHonolulu,HIPacificIslandsClimateChangeCooperativejeff.burgett@piccc.net

RichardCampHawai‘iCooperativeStudiesUnitPacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCenterrick_camp@usgs.gov

Pao‐ShinChuUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofMeteorologychu@hawaii.edu

HenryF.DiazESRLBoulder,COEarthSystemResearchLaboratoryhenry.f.diaz@noaa.gov

OliverElisonTimmUniversityatAlbanyDepartmentofAtmosphericandEnvironmentalSciencesoelisontimm@albany.edu

DavidFieldHawaiiPacificUniversityMarineScienceDivisiondfield@hpu.edu

ChipFletcherUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeologyandGeophysicsfletcher@soest.hawaii.edu

LucasFortiniUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCenterlfortini@usgs.gov

ErikFranklinUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaHawaiiInstituteofMarineBiologyerik.franklin@hawaii.edu

AbbyFrazierUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeographyabbyf@hawaii.edu

ThomasW.GiambellucaUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeographythomas@hawaii.edu

ChristianGiardinaUSFS,Hawaii,HIInstituteforPacificIslandsForestrycgiardina@fs.fed.us

StephenGingerichUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandsWaterScienceCentersbginger@usgs.gov

DavidHelwegUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandsClimateScienceCenterdhelweg@usgs.gov

HlaHtunUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentalManagementhlahtun@hawaii.edu

JamesD.JacobiUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCenterjjacobi@usgs.gov

AuroraKagawa‐VivianiUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeographykagawa@hawaii.edu

LaurenKaiserUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeographylkaiser7@hawaii.edu

VictoriaKeenerEast‐WestCenter,Honolulu,HIPacificRISAkeenerv@eastwestcenter.org

DennisA.LaPointeUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCenterdennis_lapointe@usgs.gov

MamiLeMasterUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeographymamit@hawaii.edu

Wei'Joy'LiaoUniversityofWisconsin,MadisonForestandWildlifeEcologywliao27@wisc.edu

RyanLongmanUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeographyrlongman@hawaii.edu

AlanMairUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandsWaterScienceCenterdmair@usgs.gov

MarieMcKenzieUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofGeographymariemm@hawaii.edu

DieterMueller‐DomboisUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofBotanydieter@hawaii.edu

KirstenOlesonUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaDepartmentofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentalManagementkoleson@hawaii.edu

EbenPaxtonUSGS,HawaiiNationaParkPacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCenterepaxton@usgs.gov

JonathanPriceUniversityofHawai‘iatHiloDepartmentofGeographyandEnvironmentalSciencesjpprice@hawaii.edu

MichaelD.SamuelUniversityofWisconsin,MadisonWisconsinCooperativeWildlifeResearchUnitmdsamuel@wisc.edu

GordonTribbleUSGS,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandEcosystemsResearchCentergtribble@usgs.gov

KevinTrickHawaiiPacificUniversityMarineScienceDivisionkevintrick@gmail.com

RobertoVenegasNOAAIRC,Honolulu,HIPacificIslandsFisheriesScienceCenterroberto.venegas@noaa.gov

MatthewWidlanskyUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaInternationalPacificResearchCentermwidlans@hawaii.edu

TamaraWongUniversityofHawai‘iatHiloDepartmentofGeographyandEnvironmentalSciencestamarawo@hawaii.edu

ChunxiZhangUniversityofHawai‘iatMānoaInternationalPacificResearchCenterchunxi@hawaii.edu

AcknowledgementsandDisclaimer:

The organization and execution of thisworkshop is supported by the USGS Pacific

Island Climate Science Center (PICSC) throughthe Cooperative Agreement #G12AC20502.Contentsandviewsexpressedinthisdocument

are solely the responsibility of the workshoporganizers and do not represent the officialviewsoftheUSGS.Thetitlepagefigureshown

in this document is public domain. Copyrightsmayapplytothemodifiedgooglemapimage.

WorkshopOrganizers:

• OliverElisonTimm

DepartmentofAtmosphericandEnvironmentalSciencesUniversityatAlbany1400WashingtonAvenue‐ES316AAlbany,NY,12222Phone:+1+518‐442‐3584Email: oelisontimm@albany.edu

• TamaraWong

DepartmentofGeographyandEnvironmentalSciences

UniversityofHawaiiatHilo200W.KawiliSt.Hilo,HI96720‐4091

LocalHostOrganization&Logistics

InternationalPacificResearchCenterPOSTBldg.,Room401

1680East‐WestRoad,UniversityofHawaiʻiHonolulu,Hawai‘i96822USAPhone:+1‐808‐956‐5019

Fax: +1‐808956‐.9425