Asia Regional Summary - Max-Security
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Asia Regional Summary
September 2015
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Executive Summary HIGH RISK
2 | P a g e The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its name below.
In Southeast Asia, the latent threat of militancy remained a concern during the month of
August. In Indonesia and Malaysia, intensified counterinsurgency campaigns continued, as
dozens of suspected militants were arrested by special operation units in both Southeast
Asian countries. Similarly, neighboring Philippines continued to witness numerous clashes
between security forces and Abu Sayyaf militants as well as New People’s Army (NPA)
insurgents, despite the government’s efforts to neutralize the insurgency in the volatile
Mindanao region. Meanwhile, Thailand experienced what is referred to as the worst
militant attack ever, when 20 people were killed and over 120 were wounded in a bomb
blast in central Bangkok outside the Hindu Erawan Shrine. As speculations arise regarding
the motivation and identity of the perpetrators, the Royal Thai Police continues its
investigation at this time, arresting three possible suspects so far.
Hopes ahead of the National Security Advisor (NSA)-level talks on national security between
Pakistan and India were shattered after Islamabad announced the cancellation of the talks,
due to a disagreement over the slated dialogue’s agenda. As Kashmir remains a flashpoint
of a decade’s long conflict between the nuclear-armed rivals, border skirmishes and
heightened militant activity in Jammu & Kashmir were particularly notable during the past
month. Bilateral tensions were also noted on the Korean Peninsula following a military
standoff between the South and the North, resulting in increased propaganda war and
placement of military on high alert by both sides.
Political tensions continued to remain high in Malaysia, manifesting in the Bersih 4.0
protests in Kuala Lumpur, attended by hundreds of thousands of people, demanding PM
Najib’s resignation. Likewise, civic activism remains high in Japan as anti-security bills
protests continue to attract thousands of demonstrators across the island nation. As the
vote in the Upper House over the bills nears, such protests may possibly intensify,
particularly in Tokyo. On the contrary, the political climate in Sri Lanka witnessed a
reduction in tensions after the August 17 general elections transpired considerably
peacefully, and was announced as free and fair elections by both local and international
monitoring groups.
In China, several explosions in chemical plants, particularly the August 12 blast in Tianjin,
triggered intensified criticism toward the government and public outrage over low safety
standards and the storage and operation of chemical plants within residential areas. In
another notable development, China’s stock market crashed after the Shanghai Composite
Index fell 6 percent on August 25, marking the worst drop since 2007. As the government
will reportedly halt making large scale purchases in the stock market, concerns remain over
further declines in the coming months.
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The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the
past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its name below.
HIGH RISK
Pakistan ................................................................................................................... 4
MEDIUM RISK
Bangladesh .............................................................................................................. 5
China ....................................................................................................................... 6
India ........................................................................................................................ 7
Indonesia ................................................................................................................. 8
Malaysia .................................................................................................................. 9
Myanmar ............................................................................................................... 10
Philippines ............................................................................................................. 11
Sri Lanka ................................................................................................................ 12
Thailand ................................................................................................................ 13
LOW RISK
Japan ..................................................................................................................... 14
South Korea ........................................................................................................... 15
Taiwan................................................................................................................... 16
Notable Dates for September 2015 ....................................................................................... 17
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Punjab Home Minister targeted in suicide attack in Attock District, killing 19.
Government withdraws from National Security Advisor (NSA) meeting with India.
We advise against all nonessential travel to Pakistan given the heightened threat of
militancy, criminality, kidnappings and sectarian tensions throughout the country.
Punjab Home Minister targeted in suicide attack in Attock District, 19 dead
On August 16, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive device inside the Punjab Home
Minister’s office situated in the village of Shadi Khan in Attock District, Punjab. The bombing
destroyed the building and killed 19 people including Home Minister Shuja Khanzada. In the
wake of the attack, 140 suspected militants were apprehended in South Punjab. In addition,
on August 22, four men from a religious Islamic seminary, believed to be affiliated with a
banned militant outfit, were arrested in connection to the suicide attack.
The August 16 suicide attack highlights the persistent threat of militancy within Pakistan and
illustrates the operational capabilities of militants to carry out targeted attacks on political
figures. Furthermore, we assess that security forces will continue to increase operations
against militant entities throughout Pakistan, in order to restore security and minimize the
prevalent threat. These are likely to focus on tribal regions located near the Pakistan-Afghan
border given that these remote areas remain militant strongholds.
Government withdraws from NSA meeting with India
On August 22, Pakistan cancelled the National Security Advisor (NSA)-level talks with India
that were slated to take place in New Delhi, after accusations were traded by the neighboring
countries over responsibility for continued ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC).
The NSA-level talks were initially scheduled on July 10 during a meeting between Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in Russia, and indicated an
important development in diplomatic relations between the neighboring countries.
The cancellation of the NSA-level talks highlights the lingering tensions between Pakistan and
India which have plagued the countries’ bilateral relations for decades. These tensions have
further been strained by persistent claims of control from both countries regarding Kashmir.
In addition, the overt political maneuvering by both sides prior to the talks may reveal a lack
of willingness by both governments to commit to a diplomatic dialogue, specifically in the
context of Kashmir. Given the cancellation of the talks, it is likely that further ceasefire
violations will be witnessed in the coming weeks, however it is unlikely that a meeting
addressing national security will be scheduled in the near future.
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HIGH RISK Notable Dates
Pakistan
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Secular, anti-extremist blogger stabbed to death in Dhaka, fourth since January 2015.
Political violence continues between Awami League, BNP.
Travel to Dhaka and Chittagong should be for business essential purposes only at
this time, given general instability and reports of violence from political rivalries and
militancy.
Fourth secular blogger stabbed to death since January 2015
On August 7, a secular blogger was killed when five assailants broke into his residence and
stabbed him to death, making him the fourth anti-extremist and social activist to be murdered
since the beginning of 2015. Reportedly, a local branch of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
(AQIS) claimed responsibility through an email sent to a media outlet. Bangladeshi security
forces arrested two suspects in connection to the murder. Furthermore, on August 18 three
suspected members of, Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), a banned outfit, were arrested for
conducting attacks on two secular bloggers earlier in the year.
The August 7 incident underscores the pernicious threat of religious extremism against
secularist activists who are critical of Islam. Furthermore, it illustrates the prevalent risk of
Islamic extremism within Bangladesh, in spite of continued measures by the government to
crackdown on such Islamist militant factions. Given the fissures between secular voices and
hardline organizations, future attacks against secular bloggers remain liable.
Political violence continues between Awami League, BNP
The month of August witnessed political relations between the ruling Awami League (AL) and
the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) deteriorate further. Earlier in the month,
Minister of Information Hassanul Haq Inu accused the BNP attempting to curb freedom of
expression in the country by aiding the murderers of secular blogger Niloy Neel Choudhury.
State Minister for Finance, Md Shahriar Alam, was the victim of an alleged assassination
attempt when two explosions occurred next to vehicle in Rajshahi district on August 14.
Several Jubo League activists were also killed in August, allegedly by actors affiliated to BNP.
On August 29, two AL leaders were wounded in a gunfight with BNP activists in Natore district
of Rajshahi division. The gunfight occurred as BNP leaders retaliated against Jubo League
youth members of the AL attacked a BNP activist. In further retaliation, AL activists reportedly
set fire to BNP premises and vandalized local stores in the city.
Heightened political tensions between both parties typically manifest in incidents of violence
in Bangladesh. While the Awami League has attempted to delegitimize the opposition BNP
publically for its alleged role in supporting acts of Islamist militancy in the country, including
the killings of secular bloggers in the country, the latter party still retains the ability to mobilize
large masses for its rallies. Therefore, we assess that further instances of violent clashes
between mobs supporting either parties are liable to occur in Bangladesh in the days and
months to come.
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
Bangladesh
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Hundreds of fatalities in large explosions at chemical warehouse in Tianjin.
China’s stock market continues to fall amid signs economic growth is flagging.
Travel to China may continue at this time while adhering to standard security protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.
Tianjin explosions result in hundreds of fatalities, localized contamination, protests
At approximately 23:30 (local time) on August 12, explosions ripped through a chemical
warehouse in the northern city of Tianjin. As of August 28, at least 145 people have been
reported killed, 797 wounded, with 28 still missing. Additionally, reports suggest that several
dangerous substances, including sodium cyanide and toluene diisocyanate, were released
following the blasts, causing localized contamination in the area. While Beijing has arrested
several officials it believes to be responsible for the explosion, including 12 on August 27,
protests among Tianjin residents over the environmental contamination and the
government’s role in the plant’s lax safety standards continue. Additionally, on August 22,
another blast at a chemical plant was reported in Zibo, a city in eastern Shandong Province,
leaving one killed and nine wounded.
The blast in Tianjin has reignited a long-running fear among the Chinese public over the
government’s perceived inability/unwillingness to mitigate environmental degradation.
Continuing reports of possible chemical contamination in and around Tianjin, as well as the
possibility of subsequent explosions, threaten to manifest this panic in ongoing protests over
the coming weeks and months. In the short term, the government is likely to continue
arresting company officials and making symbolic gestures towards tightening safety standards
in order to appease public rage. However, it remains unclear whether such moves will be
enough to stave off continuing instability over the issue.
China’s stock market instability continues
Despite significant government intervention, China’s stock market remains volatile. After
falling 8.5 percent on August 24, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6 percent on August 25,
marking the worst drop since 2007. China’s government has taken a variety of steps to stem
the onslaught, including censoring information regarding trading and authorizing state-run
firms to artificially prop up stock prices. The stock market rout reflects worrying signs from
China’s larger economy; reports from August show that the manufacturing sector in the
country is at its weakest since the global financial crisis.
Although stocks have shown signs of rebounding since August 25, the bump is likely to be
short lived. This is due to the fact that the state intervention holding up prices is too costly for
Beijing to keep up, and because the stocks’ slump is symptomatic of a more general slowdown
in the country’s economic growth. In light of this projected fall, China is likely to withhold
information domestically about market declines, which could raise anxiety as well as the
possibility of additional protests in the areas hit hardest by the downturn.
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
China
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
India
Security forces targeted by militants, cross-border firing along LoC, in Jammu &
Kashmir.
Intensified Maoist activity in India’s “Red-corridor” continues.
Travel to India can continue while adhering to basic security precautions regarding
petty crime and maintaining heightened vigilance for militant risks.
Border skirmishes, heightened militant activity in Jammu & Kashmir
The month of August witnessed heavy cross-border firing and heightened militant activity
along the Line of Control (LoC) in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Border skirmishes saw a
sharp uptick in the days leading up to the National Security Advisor (NSA) – level talks between
India and Pakistan, originally scheduled to be held on August 23-24, which collapsed on the
eve of the talks. Instances of border violence were accompanied by an increase in cross-border
infiltration and subsequent militant activity in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, which targeted
civilians and security forces. This was met with sustained counterinsurgency operations from
Indian security forces, resulting in frequent firefights with militants. Several army troops and
suspected militants were killed in the violence which persisted through August, with the
Indian Army claiming to have captured two militants alive on separate occasions.
The aforementioned incidents highlight the ongoing threat of domestic/cross-border militant
activity in Jammu and Kashmir. Islamist militants, aided by the fact that Indian security forces
are kept busy by Pakistani border firing, have repeatedly demonstrated their capability to
infiltrate borders and conduct attacks on army assets and civilians, leading to heavy casualties.
Intensified Maoist activity
During August, India witnessed an intensification in insurgent activity by Maoists in India’s
“Red Corridor”. On August 26, three Border Security Force (BSF) officials and a civilian were
killed in the state of Odisha by Maoists in a raid that employed improvised-explosive devices
(IEDs). On August 9, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) recovered 95 improvised explosive
devices in Latehar district of the state of Jharkhand.
The incidents highlight the persistent threat of insurgency in Maoist strongholds in the
underdeveloped states of Eastern India. The Modi government has continued to pursue
policies aimed at the infrastructure development of peripheral regions that are disconnected
to mainstream society. Increased insurgent activities as exposed by the recovery of arms and
ammunition as well as the growing frequency of attacks on government assets and
installations are part of an attempt to prevent the central government to gain legitimacy
among the locals in the areas dominated by Maoist insurgents.
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Militants continue to clash with security forces throughout the country during August
as authorities attempt to limit spread of militant Islamist ideology.
Residents of Kampung Pulo evicted on August 20 resulting in clashes between evictees
and security personnel.
Travel to Jakarta [and/or other urban area] can continue while adhering to standard
security protocols given the threat of militancy and crime.
Anti-Islamist militant operations by Densus 88 continue
Anti-militancy operations continued throughout Indonesia during the month of August,
culminating in tens of suspected militants arrested by the Indonesian National Police special
operations unit, Densus 88, along with the confiscation of weapons, explosives, and Islamist
propaganda. Four were killed and an additional 12 individuals were wounded in militant
related clashes throughout August. The recovery of explosives, weapons, and Islamist
propaganda in the numerous anti-militant operations in August continue to highlight the
concern of Islamist militancy in the country with the world’s largest Muslim population.
Furthermore, Indonesia is frequently used as a transit point for individuals seeking to join the
Islamic State (IS) and by fighters returning from Iraq and Syria. As such, many individuals opt
to stay in Indonesia to recruit from amongst local Indonesians. In this context, we assess that
the central government is liable to continue the increased operational tempo against potential
IS sympathizers in the coming weeks given the latent threat.
Forced eviction
On August 20, Jakarta Metro authorities forced the eviction and relocation of residents of
Kampung Pulo in East Jakarta’s Kampung Melayu area of Jatinegara district. While the
administration sought to relocate the residents to the Jatinegara low-cost apartment complex,
the residents refused to comply, resulting in the deployment of approximately 2,255 security
personnel to quell the unrest. Clashes between the security personnel and residents of
Kampung Pulo led to the use of tear gas and water cannons against the latter. Meanwhile, on
August 29, a political group dubbed Lawan Ahok (Enemies of Ahok), protested against the
evictions at Park Suropati in Menteng sub-district of Central Jakarta, while former residents
of Kampung Pulo protested outside the Jakarta Governo’s residence, denouncing the
excessive deployment of security forces during their eviction.
At present, it remains unlikely that the administration will back away from the evictions,
especially since they have decided to go ahead with the eviction without waiting for the
decision of the State Administrative Court on the matter. Considering the forced nature of the
evictions, further clashes between residents and local police should be anticipated in the days
to come. Likewise, there is also the risk of unrest in the Jatinegara district from disruptive
protests.
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
Indonesia
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10 Islamic State (IS)-linked financers, recruiters arrested; highlights growing militant
influence in Malaysia.
PM Najib likely to retain power despite mounting society, political pressure.
Travel to Kuala Lumpur can continue while taking necessary precautions to counter the
threat of criminality, especially during the nighttime hours.
Islamic State affiliates arrested
On August 20, 10 suspected IS-linked assailants, which included six security force personnel,
were apprehended by Malaysian authorities for allegedly conducting fundraising activities for
IS operatives to either join the IS-led insurgency in Iraq and Syria, or conduct militancy in
Malaysia, along with the alleged recruitment of militants. To that end, security forces have
conducted lengthy investigations over the course of the last few months, which have led to
the arrest of dozens IS-linked militants, as seen on April 5 and on April 25, highlighting the
latent threat jihadists pose to the country. In that light, we assess that authorities are likely to
expand investigations and tactical operations over the coming weeks and months to target
illicit fundraisers and recruiters in an attempt to counter IS-influence both in Malaysia and
internationally. That said, we continue to assess that the Malaysian government will be unable
to completely mitigate the threat of IS influence in the country due to the fact that
transnational Islamists consider Malaysia as a lucrative area of operation with various
penetrable soft targets, making the country a strategic platform for militant activity.
PM Najib likely to retain power despite mounting society, political pressure
Thousands of people demonstrated against Prime Minister (PM) Datuk Seril Najib Razak
throughout August, amidst controversial media reports released in July linking the 1
Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) investment fund with PM Najib, accusing him of
the embezzlement of over 700 million USD. The highlight of the unrest was marked by the
Bersih 4.0 protests held nationwide on August 29-30 and organized by a coalition of NGOs
under the banner of the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih). The Kuala Lumpur
rally was attended by approximately 250,000 people. Additionally, former Malaysian PM
Mahathir Mohamad put forward a call of no confidence against PM Najib.
Nonetheless, following the Bersih 4.0 protests, PM Najib refused to resign, and called for
national unity. Despite the widespread aforementioned displeasure with PM Najib, the
PM is liable to remain in office, as the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party
holds majority support and has dominated Malaysian politics since 1957. Coupled with
the recent cabinet reshuffle and his influence in or over various authorities, the PM still
maintains a fairly strong position within the government. In this context, we assess that
PM Najib has for now, positioned himself to remain in his role as the Malaysian leader.
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
Malaysia
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NCA talks continue between government, armed groups.
President Thein Sein continues efforts to consolidate power base.
Travel to Naypyidaw, Mandalay and Yangon may continue at this time while
adhering to basic security protocols given the latent threat of militancy and petty
crime.
Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) talks continue between government, armed groups.
On August 15, the Karen National Union (KNU) signed the NCA with the government after
negotiations between the government and the aligned ethnic bloc had failed to achieve an
agreement after its ninth session. This decision also followed the refusal by the government
to accept the collective peace offer made by three ethnic insurgent groups, the Ta’ang
National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and
the Arakan Army (AA), during talks on August 5. Amidst continued fighting in Shan State,
further discussions surrounding the signing of a final ceasefire agreement are slated to take
place on September 9, including several groups that were left out of previous discussions.
Nevertheless, the MNDAA and other ethnic groups from the Kokang self- administered zone
in Shan State have still been omitted from the peace talks.
Given the lack of success in previous negotiations, it is unlikely that any substantial agreement
will be achieved during this session of discussion, despite a more inclusive ethnic bloc. In
addition, given that the MNDAA was not included, clashes between MNDAA affiliated
militants and government troops in Kokang area of Shan State are likely to continue.
President Thein Sein efforts to consolidate power base
The Secretary-General of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) Maung Maung
Thein along with the parliament speaker Shwe Mann were both removed from USDP
headquarters after security forces raided the ruling party’s offices in Naypyidaw, on August
12. On August 20, the last two bills that will place restrictions on religious conversion and
polygamy were passed by parliament, and are awaiting the approval of President Thein Sein.
Meanwhile, on August 30, the government banned political parties from criticizing the army
or the constitution in state media during campaign season for the upcoming elections.
Given that the legislation is perceived as heavily biased against religious freedom and ethnic
minorities within Myanmar, it could be viewed that President Thein Sein will approve the bills
as a means of consolidating political power among the Buddhist majority. Overall, these
developments are likely efforts by President Thein Sein to set himself as the frontrunner in
the upcoming elections, as he limits dissent and minorities.
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
Myanmar
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Clashes between Armed Forces of the Philippines, communist insurgent New People’s
Army (NPA) continue in country’s south, with militant attacks reported.
Threat of Abu Sayyaf militancy persists, as security forces continue operations to
reassert control over the area’s rural regions.
Travel to Metro Manila may continue at this time while adhering to standard
security protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.
Clashes between AFP, insurgents
On August 1, the government arrested a prominent NPA leader in the Western Visayas
region. On August 3, security forces clashed with NPA insurgents in Masbate Province,
a high risk NPA stronghold; four NPA fighters died, as well as one soldier. One day
later, on August 4, one security officer died and five soldiers were wounded in an NPA
attack in South Cotabato. On August 7, NPA insurgents also killed a counselor in
Camarines Sur, which had just been declared last year a Conflict Manageable and
Ready for Further Development (CMRFD) area. Finally, on August 18, AFP forces killed
five NPA militants after the latter ambushed them in Bukidnon Province in Mindanao.
Likewise, the AFP has reinforced its offensive against the jihadist Abu Sayyaf
insurgency in the country’s south over the past month. Most notably, following a
firefight on August 11, authorities found military equipment as well as the decapitated
body of a village chief from Zamboanga del Norte who had been kidnapped earlier. In
the wake of the beheading, AFP forces launched an operation to rescue remaining
hostages. Several captured coast guard personnel managed to escape; Abu Sayyaf
retained nine hostages. 10 Abu Sayyaf militants were killed in a clash with AFP in Sulu
on August 21; one week later on August 28, 10 Marines were wounded in a skirmish
in the same area with the jihadist group.
The above underscores the persistent threat of the NPA and Abu Sayyaf in the
Philippines, especially in rural areas. Despite the government’s efforts to neutralize
the insurgency, the NPA’s ability to carry out operations in high-risk areas, such as
Masbate, as well as in CMRFD ones, such as Camarines Sur, signifies that they still
boast wide operational latitude. Furthermore, the NPA is likely to escalate their
assaults in the weeks to come due to next year’s general elections. Similarly, despite
ongoing operations, Abu Sayyaf militants have been successful in ambushing security
forces and undermining stability. However, following the decapitation of the local
official, security forces have bolstered their campaign, which could increase casualties
in the short-term while also weakening the militants’ long-term offensive capabilities.
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
Philippines
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Rajapaksa defeated in general elections on August 17, as UNP-led coalition remains in
power.
Travel to Sri Lanka, including Colombo can continue as normal while taking basic
security precautions given the threat of protests and possibility for political unrest.
Rajapaksa defeated in general elections on August 17, as UNP-led coalition remains in
power
The days leading up to the elections were marred with incidents of localized,
politically motivated attacks, beginning with July 31, when an unidentified armed
group opened fire into the crowd at the United National Party (UNP) political rally
in Colombo, killing one and injuring 11. Additionally, on August 6, unidentified
assailants opened fire on the residence of a UNP supporter, and on August 8, a
People's Liberation Front campaign office in Colombo was attacked, and its
exterior was set ablaze. On August 15, an active UNP supporter was fatally shot
in Batticaloa, in Eastern Province.
The UNP was victorious in the general elections, winning 106 seats in the 225-
member parliament, under Prime Minister (PM) Ranil Wickremesinghe and
incumbent President Maithripala Sirisena, marking the second electoral defeat of
former President Mahinda Rajapaksa in six months. This result demonstrates that
while Rajapaksa is accredited with ending the country’s 25-years’ civil war in 2009,
allegations of corruption, misuse of office, and nepotism have sullied his image
and hampered his ability to win elections. Meanwhile, the center-right UNP’s
victory needs to form a national government, as neither party won a simple
majority required to form a government on its own. The UNP has been joined by
the Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP) to create a coalition national government
and majority in Parliament and their swearing in ceremony for the Council of
Ministers is slated for September 2.
Lastly, given that both local and international monitoring groups have declared
the elections free and fair, we assess that Rajapaksa as well as his party United
People's’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) are unlikely to call into question the August 17
vote. Consequently, we assess that as a member of the opposition camp,
Rajapaksa and his party may find themselves deserting tactics of street protests
and resort to more politically-oriented maneuvers such as carrying out
disruptions in parliament in the coming months to prevent passage of reforms or
bills sponsored by the coalition.
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
Sri Lanka
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20 people killed, over 120 wounded, by bomb blast in popular tourist destinations in
Bangkok on August 17.
Travel to Bangkok may continue while adhering to security precautions regarding
the latent risk of civil unrest and militancy.
20 people killed, over 120 wounded, by bomb blast in Bangkok on August 17
On August 17, an improvised explosive device (IED) exploded at the Rajprasong
intersection in central Bangkok outside the Hindu Erawan Shrine, at approximately
19:00 (local time). 20 people were killed, of which ten were foreign nationals, in the
attack and at least 120 were wounded. Later, on August 18, an explosive device was
thrown below Taksin Bridge in Bangkok, where it exploded in the Chao Phyraya River;
no injuries were reported following the blast. In response to the two bombings,
authorities bolstered the security at Suvarnabhumi International Airport, also known
as Bangkok International Airport. Moreover, 23 countries, including the US, UK, and
Canada, have released travel warnings in the wake of the attack.
While no individual or group has claimed responsibility for the bombing,
(RTP) continues its investigation, and arrested on August 29 a foreigner in connection
with the attack. According to RTP spokesman, the suspect was part of a people-
smuggling gang assisting illegal migrants to obtain counterfeit documents, and the
bomb attack was in response to a recent crackdown by Thai authorities.
While the connection of the detained foreigner to the bombing remains unclear at
this time, the RTP’s searches for a prime suspect so far have been unfruitful and have
drawn criticism for a poor investigation. With this in mind, we assess that the RTP is
likely to conduct further arrests of possible suspects over the coming days and weeks,
and release additional information regarding the ongoing investigation so as to
display efficiency and progress in bringing the perpetrators to justice. Furthermore,
as the Thai government has been keen on ruling out the involvement of transnational
militant groups in the attack, we assess that the direction of investigation will likely
be steered toward arresting illegal migrants.
Meanwhile, in light of the follow-up bombing in August 18, we further assess that
there continues to remain the potential for additional attempts to attack strategic
locations throughout Bangkok, as well as the potential for more explosives being
found over the coming weeks.
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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates
Thailand
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Civil activism continues as national security bills tabled in Upper House despite
widespread public discontent.
Typhoon Goni hits Japan; authorities likely to take precautions as seasonal storms
slated to continue until October.
Travel to Japan can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions
regarding protests.
Civil activism continues as national security bills tabled in Upper House despite widespread
public discontent
Activists conducted weekly demonstrations as a part of their ongoing campaign
against Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government, and the security legislative
amendments to the constitution the ruling coalition is trying to achieve. Weekly anti-
national security bill protests often attracted hundreds to thousands of participants
from all aspects of Japanese society, most notably the inclusion of several members
of Japan’s Federation of Bar Association along with many prominent academics.
Despite the regular turnout, localized unrest rarely occurs. Additional protests against
renewed nuclear power continued through August as Japan restarted its first nuclear
reactor since the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
The national security bills could pass through parliament before the end of the current
National Diet session on September 27. In line with this, leading up to the National
Diet’s cessation, there remains the potential that protests in Tokyo could intensify in
September, leading to increased security around government buildings. Moreover,
although protests thus far have been relatively peaceful with only a few accounts of
localized unrest, as anxiety and public discontent mounts, localized unrest during
future protests may manifest in the form of scuffles with police.
Typhoon Goni hits Japan; authorities likely to take precautions as seasonal storms slated to
continue until October
Typhoon Goni hit Japan on August 26, prompting the Japanese government to advise the
evacuation of approximately 280,000 people in Kyushu Island and western Japan. Hundreds
of flights and trains were cancelled as a result. In that context, and with the typhoon season
slated to continue through October, Japanese authorities are likely to take the necessary
precautions over the course of the coming weeks to mitigate any potential damages caused
by seasonal storms. As a result, if storms renew, further flight and train delays are likely to
occur, and authorities will likely ensure that evacuation procedures and precautionary
measures are conducted, all of which could potentially adversely impact business continuity.
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LOW RISK Notable Dates
Japan
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Tensions between Seoul, Pyongyang rise following fire exchange in DMZ on August 20.
Travel to Seoul may continue at this time, while adhering to standard security protocols
regarding protests, crime and the lingering risk of conflict with North Korea.
Tensions between Seoul, Pyongyang rise following fire exchange in DMZ on August 20
During the month of August, there was a significant escalation of tensions on the
Korean Peninsula after both sides put their respective militaries on high alert and
mobilized large numbers of military forces, including 70 percent of North Korea’s
submarine capabilities, into strategic offensive positions, following a military standoff
on August 20. Tensions arose after an August 4 landmine blast in
the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) injured South Korean troops, for which Seoul
subsequently blamed Pyongyang and launched an extensive anti-North propaganda
loudspeaker campaign on August 10. Following this, on August 20, an exchange of fire
between the two countries occurred when the North fired a short range rocket at one
of the loudspeaker installations prompting an artillery bombardment by Seoul on the
same day.
The exchange of fire underscores the most notable volatile security incident between
the two countries since 2010 when a South Korean warship was sunk by a North
Korean torpedo fired by a submarine. In line with this, the two nations are still
technically in a de-facto state of war, as a peace agreement was never reached
following the end of the Korean War in 1953. Although the latest crisis on the Korean
Peninsula was resolved by diplomatic means, with an agreement reached on August
25 after days of marathon negations that started on August 22, a renewed escalations
of tensions over the coming weeks and months still remains possible. In that regard,
both sides are likely going to be cautious of each other over the coming months, and
increased military presence will likely be witnessed on the DMZ, the Yellow Sea, and
other strategic border locations.
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LOW RISK Notable Dates
South Korea
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Student activists continue to protest against Ma administration’s “China-centric”
curriculum changes.
Travel to Taipei can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions
regarding civil unrest and protests.
Student activists continue to protest against Ma administration’s “China-centric” curriculum
changes
On August 3, student activists and officials from Taiwan’s Ministry of Education (MOE)
left a meeting deadlocked over a series of controversial curriculum changes the ruling
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) party has initiated, and activists criticized, as favoring
China ideologically. This meeting came after weeks of protests, as well as the arrests
of 33 activists who attempted to occupy the MOE building in Taipei on July 23; one
later committed suicide. While Education Minister Wu Se-hwa did agree to lift charges
against the other 32 arrested, he has refused to cancel or delay the proposed
curriculum changes, offering instead for schools to be able to choose whether to
utilize the associated textbooks. Although the student activists temporarily vacated
their protest camp due to Typhoon Soudelor in mid-August, they have rejected these
overtures and promised to continue and escalate the protests in the coming days and
weeks. The new guidelines have been implemented as of August 1.
The current dispute between students and the KMT government is unlikely to resolve
itself in the near future, partly due to the fact that the curriculum changes in question
have already largely been implemented. Furthermore, there is a large disparity in
perceptions between the two sides, as well as political posturing in advance of the
2016 national elections. While the protesters did abandon their protest spot near the
MOE due to the arrival of Typhoon Soudelor, they will likely attempt to return to the
area, as well as initiate more protests at other government buildings or key locales.
Such buildings could include the Legislative and Executive Yuans, which were the focus
of similar activism during the Sunflower Revolution in 2014.
The current crisis over the curriculum changes has not only weakened the KMT but
given the opposition DPP an electoral opportunity. As opposed to views of the vast
majority of Taiwanese, a powerful contingent of KMT members, including the current
President, Ma Ying-jeou, is seen as being too overtly pro-China. While the evidence
suggests that the DPP has not organized, the recent protests against the KMT, in her
rejection of the “One China” principle and the 1992 Consensus positions, Tsai Ing-
wen, the incumbent chairwoman of the DPP and the party’s presidential candidate
for the 2016 election, is set to reap the most politically from this civic movement’s
momentum.
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LOW RISK Notable Dates
Taiwan
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Notable Dates for September 2015
Asia
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 24-26, 2015 Eid- al-Adha A religious Muslim holiday that usually
lasts for three days as dates vary
according to country. It commemorates
the willingness of Ibrahim (Abraham) to
obey God by sacrificing his son,
according to Muslims the son to be
sacrificed was Ishmael. Many Muslims
celebrate the holiday by reenacting
Ibrahim’s obedience by sacrificing a cow
or other animal and then rejoicing in a
feast. It is the most important feast in
the Muslim calendar.
In Bangladesh, it is marked on
September 24-26. In Pakistan, the
holiday is a public holiday that is
celebrated from September 25-26 and is
known as Eid ul-Azha. In the Philippines,
the holiday is observed on September
24. Malaysia and Singapore, where the
Muslim holiday is locally known as Hari
Raya Haji, is observed on September 24-
25 and September 24 respectively.
Indonesia and Sri Lanka will observe Eid-
al-Adha on September 24.
Bangladesh – Back to portion
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 5, 2015 Janmashtami It is one of the most important Hindu
festivals which celebrates the birth of
lord Krishna. It is marked as a public
holiday in Bangladesh as such
government offices and most businesses
tend to remain closed. Minor disruptions
to business continuity are likely to occur
due to the public holiday.
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China – Back to portion
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 3, 2015 Victory Day- marks the
70th Anniversary of
Victory Over Japan.
Victory Day is the day on which Japan
surrendered during World War II. As a
national holiday, it will be celebrated
with, among other festivities, a large
military parade in Beijing, to be attended
by President Xi Jinping. In light of
political tensions between China and
Japan, localized protests against Japan
and its government are possible in major
Chinese cities. It is advised to maintain
vigilance throughout all major cities in
China, given the nationalist nature of
Victory Day. Similarly, allot for
disruptions to business continuity due to
high traffic congestion and the likelihood
of public and private businesses closing
or having reduced hours.
September 27, 2015
Mid-Autumn Festival (Zhongqiu Jie)
The Mid-Autumn Festival is one of the
most important traditional holidays in
China, and is traditionally celebrated by
hanging colorful lanterns and eating
“mooncakes.” As a major national
holiday, national, state, and local
government and nongovernment offices
will likely be closed; some businesses
may have reduced hours. It is advised to
allot for disruptions to business
continuity as well as with additional
travel time due to the potential for
traffic congestion.
India - Back to portion
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 5, 2015 Janmashtami Also known as Krishna Jayanti, it is one
of the most important Hindu festivals
which celebrates the birthday of lord
Krishna. Janmashtami is a gazette
holiday in several regions of India,
including Delhi, Punjab and Tamil Nadu,
and as such many government offices
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and some businesses remain closed. The
holiday is celebrated with ceremonies
taking place at temples across India
dedicated to Krishna.
September 17, 2015
Ganesh Chaturthi Also known as Vinayaka Chaturthi, it is a
Hindu holiday that celebrates the birth
of Lord Ganesh and it is celebrated in the
following regions of India: Andhra
Pradesh, Goa, Gujarat, Maharashtra,
Orissa, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu.
Nevertheless, the holiday is one of the
most widely celebrated across India due
to the popularity of the deity. In the
regions of Andhra Pradesh and
Maharashtra celebrations are public and
often last for ten days. Since the holiday
is restricted government offices and
businesses remain open. In Andhra
Pradesh and Maharashtra there may be
potential for disruptions to travel due to
public celebrations.
Japan – Back to portion
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 21-23, 2015 Silver Week national
holidays.
Silver Week is a series of national
holidays during September 21-23, which
creates a three day-long national holiday
period. Respect for the Aged Day is
slated for September 21, a Bridge Public
Holiday, which is a day between the two
holidays, is slated for September 22, and
Autumnal Equinox Day will occur on
September 23. Due to the
aforementioned national holidays,
potential business and government
office closures may be witnessed, this in
turn will likely disrupt business
continuity. Furthermore, during the
Silver Week period, many Japanese
travelers leave the urbans areas for
vacations in the outing areas of Japan.
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Malaysia – Back to portion
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 16, 2015 Malaysia Day Malaysia Day commemorates the
establishment of the Malaysian
federation in 1963, marking the joining
together of Malaya, North Borneo,
Sarawak, and Singapore to form
Malaysia.
As Malaysia Day is a public holiday,
government and business closure are to
be expected. As a result, those operating
in Malaysia should allot for disruptions
to business continuity and allot
additional travel time around
commemoration events on September
16.
Singapore
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 11, 2015
General Elections
During the Singapore’s general election,
a public holiday has been declared by the
government in order for voters to place
their ballots at polling stations, which
could lead to traffic congestion in their
immediate vicinities. Furthermore,
government and business closure will
likely occur. As a result, those operating
in Singapore should allot for disruptions
to business continuity and allot
additional travel time around polling
stations on September 11.
South Korea - Back to portion
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 26-29, 2015 Mid-Autumn Harvest
Festival holiday of
Chuseok is celebrated by
an extended weekend.
The festival is marked by a four day-long
national holiday and as a result
widespread business and government
office closure will occur in South Korea
between the dates of September 26-29.
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Therefore, those operating in South
Korea should allot for business
disruptions according. Furthermore, the
mid-autumn harvest festival is regarded
as one of the most important and
significant holidays in South Korean
society. With that in mind, travelers
should allot for traffic congestion in and
around major urban centers in the days
surrounding the holiday period as
people make cross-country road trips to
be with their families.
Taiwan - Back to portion
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 26-28, 2015
Mid-Autumn Festival
(Zhongqiu Jie)
The Mid-Autumn Festival is one of the
most important traditional holidays in
Taiwan, and is traditionally celebrated
by hanging colorful lanterns and eating
“mooncakes.” As a major national
holiday, national, state, and local
government and nongovernment offices
will likely be closed; some businesses
may have reduced hours. It is advised to
allot for disruptions to business
continuity as well as additional travel
time due to potential traffic congestion.
Vietnam
Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation
September 2 National Day -
commemorates the
country’s full
independence from
France in 1945.
The date is traditionally marked by street celebrations, parades, and speeches, particularly in Hanoi’s Ba Dinh Square. assess that main celebratory events are likely to be held in major urban centers and are likely to cause traffic disruptions along the major arteries of the cities. There is also an increased risk for criminal activity, including petty theft.
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Have additional questions? Contact us at +44 20 3540 0434 or email us at [email protected] DISCLAIMER: Please note that any views and/or opinions and/or assessment and/or recommendations presented in this text are solely those of Max Security. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this text. If you are not the intended recipient you are notified that disclosing, copying, distributing or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. Max Security Solutions accepts no liability for (i) the contents of this text/report being correct, complete or up to date; (ii) consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result and/or on the basis of such contents. Copyright - 2015 Max Security