ASIA REFINED PRODUCT MARKET - · PDF fileASIA REFINED PRODUCT MARKET ... Haldia: 35 kb/d...
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ASIA REFINED PRODUCT MARKET
Grace Lee – Senior Analyst
Matthew Chew – Senior Analyst
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INTRODUCING PLATTS ANALYTICS
• A new division in Platts which delivers insight on what drives
supply and demand and how that impacts prices
• Builds on 100 years of expertise in price assessments and news
and analysis
• Capabilities developed internally and through the integration of
Bentek Energy, Eclipse Energy and PIRA Energy
• Does not produce benchmarks, is not involved in price
assessments
• Initial Asian offering: China Oil Analytics
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AGENDA
• Asian Refined Product Overview
• China – Regulatory Risks in the Horizon
• Southeast Asian Buyers – Indonesia, Vietnam
• India as the New Growth Engine
• Key Refining Hotspots
• Gasoline vs. Diesel
• Outlook for Asian Refining Margins
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Private & Confidential 4
CONSUMERISM FUELS ASIA OIL DEMAND GROWTH
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
b/d
KEY OIL PRODUCTS DEMAND GROWTH
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Diesel Kerosene Fuel Oil
Source: APPEA, NBS, China GAC, PPAC, KNOC, METI, BOE, EPPO, Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
South Korea
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Pakistan
Philippines Vietnam
y = 0.9168x + 0.008 R² = 0.3653
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
20
16 K
ey
Oil
Pro
du
cts
De
ma
nd
Gro
wth
(%
)
2016 GDP Growth Rate (%)
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Private & Confidential 5
RECORD CRUDE RUNS IN 2016
• Crude runs of key Asian refineries grew to a new high despite closures in Taiwan, Japan
• Fewer refinery turnarounds, in part due to better straight-run profits and still robust cracking margins
• Heavier turnarounds in 2017 due to build up of “maintenance”
• Independent refiners in China allowed to process imported crude
• Start up of Paradip refinery in India as other refineries raised runs
• Another 800-900 kbpd of refinery capacity will commence operations
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Private & Confidential 6
PRODUCT CRACKS & TIME SPREADS
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Naphtha Gasoline Diesel Kerosene Fuel Oil
$/b
SINGAPORE PRODUCT CRACKS
2014 2015 2016 2017 Feb YTD
Source: Platts Analytics
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
Naphtha Gasoline Diesel Kerosene Fuel Oil
$/b
SINGAPORE PRODUCT M1-M2 TIME SPREADS
2014 2015 2016 2017 Feb YTD
Source: Platts Analytics
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Private & Confidential 7
GASOLINE: CHINA & INDONESIA
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
barrels
Mil
lio
n
AGGREGATE GASOLINE STOCKS IN KEY ASIA REGIONS
2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: IE Singapore, China OGP, METI, KNOC, APPEA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
kbpd SINGAPORE GASOLINE IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
China India Taiwan S KoreaJapan Malaysia Others % China
Source: IE Singapore
200
240
280
320
360
2014 2015 2016
kbpd INDONESIA GASOLINE IMPORTS
Source: BPS
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Private & Confidential 8
CHINA: POLICIES AND REGULATIONS
• Government reforms for the oil sector post leadership reshuffle
• GDP growth expected to slow to 6.5%, with debt, currency as key macro risks
• Current state means consumer fuels, including gasoline, LPG, naphtha, jet fuel continues to increase although growth rates are forecasted to slow
• Diesel demand expected to fall further but note of pick up in industrial activity at the end of 2016
• Fuel demand plunged last year as independent refiners switch to crude, but replacements have likely peaked
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
Gasoline Gasoil Jet LPG FO Naphtha
kbpd CHINA APPARENT OIL DEMAND GROWTH
2016 2017ESource: NBS, GAC
2014 2015 2016
GDP Growth (%) 7.30 6.90 6.70
CNY / USD Exchange Rate (Avg) 6.14 6.23 6.64
Li Ke Qiang Index (%) 5.76 2.76 7.18
Steel, Coal, Cement Production (Mn Tons) 7,173 6,899 6,575
Automobile Sales (Mn) 23.49 24.56 27.94
Ethylene Production (Mn Tons) 17.04 17.15 17.81
Source: NBS
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Private & Confidential 9
INDONESIA: PROGRESS ON REFINING
• Largest regional importer of gasoline and third largest buyer of gasoil
• Economic growth, large population and supportive demographics underpin oil demand growth of 2-3%
• Oil demand > supply by 600 kbd
• Refining Development Master reinvigorated as Pertamina makes progress on refinery upgrades
• Expect new refinery additions from 2021 to lower gasoline imports by 12%, with diesel inflows insignificant
0
300
600
900
2013 2014 2015 2016
000 b/d
INDONESIA OIL PRODUCT IMPORTS
Gasoline Diesel LPG Kerosene Fuel OilSource: BPS
2014 2015 2016 2017
Population 252 255 259 262
GDP Growth (%) 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.3
Inflation (%) 6.40 6.36 3.66 4.15
Current Account (% GDP) -3.09 -2.06 -2.26 -2.33
Source: IMF, Statistics Indonesia
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Indonesia 2014 2015 2016 2017
Population 91 92 93 94
GDP Growth (%) 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.2
Inflation (%) 4.09 0.63 2.05 3.65
Current Account (% GDP) 5.12 0.47 0.38 0.11
Source: IMF
Private & Confidential 10
VIETNAM: RISING CAPACITY
• Second largest importer of gasoil, overtaking Indonesia; also a major gasoline buyer
• Economic growth of 6-7%, supported by manufacturing growth
• Nghi Son refinery to commence operations in 4Q may see country becoming self sufficient in gasoline
• Jet fuel and diesel imports could reduce by 70% and 40%
• Bound by ASEAN Free-Trade Agreements, which should support imports from member countries and states with ASEAN trade pacts
0
70
140
210
280
350
2014 2015 2016
000 b/d VIETNAM OIL PRODUCT IMPORTS
Gasoline Diesel LPG Kerosene Fuel Oil
Source: Vietnam Customs
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INDIA: ASIA’S NEW GROWTH ENGINE
• Oil product demand up by 10.2% in 2016 led by LPG (11%), gasoline (12%) and gasoil (5.4%)
• Gradual deregulation of oil products with targeted subsidies (kerosene, LPG)
• Government-led infrastructure projects and initiative to raise manufacturing’s share in GDP
• Demonetization policy not expected to impact oil demand long term
• Improved income heralds higher demand for air travel
2014 2015 2016 2017F
Population (million) 1,276 1,293 1,310 1,327
GDP Growth (%) 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.6
GDP Per Capita (US$) 1,601 1,604 1,719 1,852
Oil Demand Growth (%) 3.4 8.4 10.2 6.8
Source: IMF, PPAC, Platts
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INDIA: KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN REFINING AND PETROCHEMICALS
Paradip: 300 kb/d refinery commissioned in early 2016 with 700 kTa polypropylene plant to be completed by end 2017
Haldia: 35 kb/d delayed coker unit in existing 150kbd refinery to be commissioned by end 2017
Kochi: Expansion of 200 kb/d refinery to 300 kb/d to be completed in early 2018
Bathinda: Expansion of 180 kb/d refinery to 225 kb/d to be completed in mid-2017
Jamnagar: Expansion of 1.24 million b/d refining and petrochemical complex to be completed by end 2017
Chennai: Residue upgrading project at existing 200 kb/d refinery to be completed by end 2017
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KEY ASIAN REFINING HOTSPOTS
(+) India: Paradip
ramps up, Kochi will
be expanded and
upgraded in 2017; will
domestic demand
keep up or are exports
set to rise?
(+) Indonesia:
Progress on new
expansions, but
hurdles remain for
new greenfield
capacity
(-) Australia:
Closures halted due
to rebound in
refining margins
and mining activity
(-) Japan: Closures and
consolidation amidst
ongoing structural decline in
demand
(+) Vietnam: Nghi
Son to start in
3Q17, reducing
import
requirements
(+) China: Continues
to build capacity in
2017; independents
denied product export
quotas. Will excess
capacity be unleased
on the export market
as demand slows?
(+) Malaysia:
RAPID scheduled for
2019, potentially shifting
net balances significantly
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GROWTH IN GASOLINE DEFICIT SLOWS; GASOIL SURPLUS SHRINKS
• Surplus expected to fall in 2017 on reduction in gasoil yield and heavier maintenance season
• Continued recovery in China’s manufacturing sector could provide potential upside to regional balance
• Gasoline demand growth expected to slow down from 5.5% in 2016 to 3.8% in 2017
• New refineries and capacity expansions continue to focus on light distillates production
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GASOIL CRACKS RECOVER
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GASOIL HOTSPOTS IN 2017
Thailand And Vietnam
China
India
Japan
Australia
Korea
Malaysia and Singapore
Indonesia
Taiwan
Indonesia and Australia: Robust mining activity on stable coal prices
Japan: Structural decline to continue despite slight pick up in industrial activities
South Korea: Fuel diversification – LPG fueled taxis and increasing popularity of diesel cars
Thailand and Vietnam: Severity of monsoon season on irrigation demand
India: Impact of demonetization policy on industrial activity and infrastructure development
China: Economic restructuring and consolidation in mining and steel sectors
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SUMMARY
• Demand: As China slows, India has taken up the baton as the key engine of demand growth, but what would be the dampening effect of demonetization?
• Supply: Increase in refining run rates to slow in 2017 after record runs in 2016 on heavier maintenance season and Japan consolidation
• Refining margins expected to remain supported in 2017, but can they withstand the arrival of new capacities further out?
• South East Asia has been the key import market in Asia, but will this remain the case post 2020?
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet-Kero Gasoil Fuel Oil
ASIA PACIFIC OIL PRODUCT Y-O-Y DEMAND GROWTH
2014 2015 2016 2017 E
Source: Various Country Statistics, Platts
000 b/d