Asia pacific graduates youth forum on green economy
Transcript of Asia pacific graduates youth forum on green economy
Global Change Adaptation and Green Economy
Prof. Dr. Kedar Lal Shrestha
Institute for Development and Innovation
Nepal
Presentation at
Youth Capacity Building Workshop on Green Economy
Goodwill Hotel
Lalitpur, Nepal
25th – 29th September 2012
Outline
1. Introduction • Brown Economic Growth and Global Change • Sustainable Development & Human Well-being • Shift in Economic Paradigms and Green Economy
2. Planning Adaptation Approaches • Science-driven Approach vs. Society Need-based Approach • New Progress in Science-driven Approaches • Development of Science Based Decision Support Tools
3. Himalaya: The Asian Water Tower • Cryospheric Changes • Hydrological Impacts • Water Resource Governance
Brown Economy Over the last quarter of a century, the world economy has quadrupled
In contrast, however, 60% of the world’s major ecosystem goods and services that underpin livelihoods have been degraded or used unsustainably
This is because the economic growth of recent decades has been mainly through drawing down natural resources, without allowing stocks to regenerate, and
Through allowing widespread ecosystem degradation and loss.
What is Global Change?
• Atmosphere composition
• Temperature
• Population
• Forest cover
• Biodiversity…
Nitrogen fixation
……..
• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System
• Much more than climate change
• Socio-economic as well as biophysical
For example, changes in:
NOAA
U.S
. Bu
rea
u o
f the
Cen
su
s R
ich
ard
s (1
99
1), W
RI (1
99
0)
Reid
& M
iller (1
989)
Vitousek (1994)
Source: IGBP
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment : Largest assessment of the health of Earth’s ecosystems
Experts and Review Process
Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries
80-person independent board of review editors
Review comments from 850 experts and governments
Governance
Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000
Authorized by governments through 4 conventions
Partnership of UN agencies, conventions, business, non-governmental organizations with a multi-stakeholder board of directors
Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems
Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being
MA Framework
Direct Drivers
Indirect Drivers
Ecosystem Services
Human Well-being
Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or removal Technology adaptation and use External inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological
drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization, trade,
market and policy framework) Sociopolitical (governance and
institutional framework) Science and Technology Cultural and Religious
Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction
Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and action
Paradigm Shift
Sustainable Development
Human Well-being
Green Economy
Brown Economy
Climate Change Adaptation
Approaches in Two Directions
Nobuo Mimura - Second International CC Adaptation Conference 2012
Merits and Limitations
Science-driven approach: •projections needed for proactive adaptation •but too complicated for local governments and communities.
Society need-based approach: •effective for responses to “today’s problems” based on the needs on the ground •but long-term CC risk may diffuse in the sea of problems
How to incorporate the scientific results to the today’s decision-making? What capacity is needed for this?
Nobuo Mimura - Second International CC Adaptation Conference 2012
Components of Science Approach
GCMs(Climate Models) Downscaling 1) Dynamic downscaling 2) Statistical downscaling 3) Direct calculation
Impact models 1) Models for physical impacts 2) Measures for economic impacts 3) How to incorporate the changes in society 4) Effects of adaption
Assessing vulnerability and future risk Adaptation planning Nobuo Mimura - Second International CC
Adaptation Conference 2012
Global Awareness About Important Role of Mountains
UNCED 1992 : Chapter 13 in Agenda 21: Rio Plus Five 1997 :
Mountains of the World: A Global Priority, and a companion policy document
Mountains of the World: Challenges for the 21st Century
UNCSD 1998 : Mountain Agenda “Mountains of the World – Water Towers for the
21st Century”
MA 2005 : Mountain Ecosystem
Hydrological and Climatological Significance of Mountains
High Precipitation Levels due to Orographic Precipitation
Storage and Distribution of Water to the
Lowlands Snow and Ice Storage Influence Atmospheric Circulations
The third pole of the planet With snow and ice mass comparable to those on the poles
•Extends east - west to over 2,400 km from 35oN, 74oE to 30oN, 95oE
•All the mountains over 8,000 m are in and around it including Mt. Everest, the highest in the world
•block and deflect air circulation
• exert profound thermal and dynamical influence on regional atmospheric circulation
• play a significant role in the Asian monsoon system
The Himalayas
Asian Water Tower the source of ten major river systems that together provide irrigation, power and
drinking water for 1.3 billion people – over 20% of the world’s population.
Glacier Area percentage 2,
566
.2
21,1
92.
7
9,0
11.5
14,0
19.8
35.5
1,35
1.8
234
.6
1,6
59.9
137.
4 2,
310
.3
7,53
4.6
4.3
35.3
15.0
23.3
0.1
2.3
0.4
2.8
0.2
3.8
12.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Pe
rce
nta
ge
(%
)
Gla
cie
r a
rea
(k
m2 )
Glacier area
Glacier area percent
Western Region (1, 2 & 3)
• high productivity – food surplus
• high investment in infrastructure
• major use of fertilisers and ground-
water for irrigation
• in-migration of labour
Eastern Region (4 & 5)
• low productivity – food deficit
• poor infrastructure and low inputs of
fertilizer and water
• high risk of flooding
• out-migration of labour
IGB General Characteristic
208, 17%
494, 41%
510, 42%
Himalayan Rivers SA - Annual Runoff (km3)
Indus
Ganges
Brahmaputra
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Indus Basin Ganges Basin
Brhmaputra Basin
165
401
182A
ve
rag
e P
op
ula
tio
n D
en
sit
y (
pe
op
le p
er
sq
.km
.)
River Basin
Himalayan Major River Basins Average Population Density (people per sq. km.)
Contributions of Major Rivers from Nepal to Ganges Flow at Farraka
Karnali (Ghagra) 94,400 mcm 20.6 %
Gandaki 52,200 mcm 11.4 %
Koshi 68,340 mcm 14.9 %
Total 214,940 mcm 46.9 %
mcm: million cubic metre
%: percentage of flow at Farraka
Glacier Area and Volume from Nepal Himalaya and Indian Himalaya contributing to Ganges River System
Source TERI
Governance of Water Resources
Major decision process concerning water is made outside ‘Water box’, the domain of water managers
Full incorporation of major external drivers’ articulation, which at times can even be vague, will be essential to move towards sustainable development and use of water resources
Challenges in Governance of Water Resources
Many problems associated with governance than with the resource base
Human dimensions often play crucial role
Dealing with uncertainties and surprises associated with climate change and globalization
Green Economy and Sustainable Himalayan Mountain Development
Recognizing the important role of Himalayan ecosystems and the services they provide, it requires greater attention
on livelihood issues faced by mountain communities, and on maintaining/enhancing ecosystem services.
Recognising upstream-downstream interdependency, there is a need to promote multi-stakeholder involvement in managing trans-boundary resources through
enhanced policies, institutional structures, funding mechanisms and other necessary support systems