Asia Pacific Economic Outlook · before they indulge in long-term investments. Risk assessment The...

Asia Pacific Economic OutlookNovember 2014

AustraliaChinaIndiaThailand

AustraliaTime to think beyond mining and China

By Dr. Rumki Majumdar

AUSTRALIA’S economic growth picked up pace in 2014 and grew 3.3 percent

year over year in the first half of the year, after averaging annual growth of 2.3 percent in 2013. The economy picked up momentum primarily due to growth in exports in Q1 2014 and growth in inventories in Q2 2014. Strong growth in the real estate sector also contrib-uted significantly to economic performance in the past few quarters. The residential and nonresidential construction sectors, which are highly sensitive to domestic interest rates, witnessed strong growth because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates to 2.50 percent last year from 4.75 percent in 2011. As credit conditions eased and the availability of finance increased, demand for property shot up, resulting in higher house prices. Property values in major cities jumped as much as 16 percent last year.

Low rates also helped the Australian domestic currency depreciate rapidly. The

Australian dollar has fallen to 14 percent of its value at the start of 2013. The currency depre-ciation has benefitted sectors such as agricul-ture, education, and tourism. However, despite a low Australian dollar value, exports have not contributed much to GDP. Net exports, which had contributed 1.2 percentage points to growth in Q1 2014, subtracted 0.9 percentage points from growth in the subsequent quarter. Falling demand for commodities in China has been one of the primary reasons for a fall in Australian exports, while a decline in com-modity prices this year has been another.

Growth in consumer spending was modest due to record-low interest rates and a positive wealth effect as a result of rising asset prices. Consumer spending increased 2.8 percent year over year in Q2 2014, although growth fell marginally relative to the previous quarter. Despite the modest year-over-year increase, growth in spending remains low, largely due to an overall slack in the labor market.

2

The unemployment rate has been increasing steadily in recent years; it spiked to a 12-year high of 6.4 percent in July. To make things worse, the government has announced a few budgetary measures, such as reducing spend-ing on unemployment benefits, in order to control a widening fiscal deficit. These factors have impacted consumers’ confidence and their willingness to spend. The Australian consumer sentiment index suffered a sharp fall in September as households became more concerned about the economic and employment outlook.1

Growth in busi-ness investment remains a worry for the economy. Investment growth in nonmining sec-tors has failed to make up for the winding down of a decade-long boom in mining invest-ments. This lack of growth is despite low interest rates in the economy; cost and avail-ability of finance do not appear to be restraining investment either. However, businesses are not willing to invest due to a lack of confi-dence and a lower appetite for risks. Moreover, according to the RBA, the Australian dollar is above most estimates of its fundamental value: Although the dollar has seen some apprecia-tion since the beginning of 2014, it is still lower than its 2012 values. Investors are waiting for a further depreciation of the domestic currency and more stable growth in domestic demand before they indulge in long-term investments.

Risk assessment

The RBA is concerned about the current slack in the labor market and poor investment growth in the nonmining sector. Poor job growth will likely keep real household income subdued, which, in turn, may impact consumer spending. Currently, the rate of savings in the economy rate is high, and consumers may dip into savings in order to continue spend-ing. Low interest rates and rising house prices may help consumers to borrow and supple-ment their expenses to some extent. However,

in the absence of any significant improvement in the labor market, consumption spend-ing will likely be hit. Moreover, low interest rates for an extended period may result in an asset price bubble, which is already evident in some cit-ies. A sharp increase in asset prices and higher credit demand from con-sumers may prompt the RBA to raise interest rates earlier than expected. Thus

credit conditions may not support consumer spending in the near future.

The RBA does not expect a lift in invest-ment in nonmining sectors until 2016. On the other hand, the mining sector has now shifted from the investment phase to the production and export stage. In the absence of any pickup in mining investment, uncertainty around investment in nonmining sectors will affect growth and accelerate the downward spiral of job creation.

Investors are waiting for a further depreciation of the domestic currency and more stable growth in domestic demand before they indulge in long-term investments.

3

China is the destination of nearly 50 percent of Australia’s exports. As a result, the economy depends highly on the pace of economic and investment growth in China. Mining is the most important contributor to Australia’s exports as well as to growth, which implies that the economy remains vulnerable to global commodity prices.

The economy is diversifying into various other sectors, and Australia is building trade relations with other nations in order to reduce its dependence on the mining sector as well as on China’s economy. Australia is the world’s third-largest beef exporter and aims to become

Endnotes

1. Westpac Melbourne Institute, “Consumer sentiment falls significantly,” September 10, 2014, http://www.westpac.com.au/docs/pdf/aw/economics-research/er20140910ConsumerSentiment.pdf.

a competitive producer and exporter of a diversified mix of high-value-added manufac-tured products. Agrobusiness, tourism, and education are some of the sectors in which the economy is trying to build competency. In addition, Australia has entered into bilat-eral free-trade agreements with the United States, Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia in order to expand its export market. However, the economy still has a long way to go before it achieves some success in these areas. Until then, these economic risks will continue to worry investors.

4

THE Chinese economy continues to show signs of weakness. Industrial production

has decelerated sharply, retail sales have soft-ened, property prices are falling, and overall inflation is decelerating. In addition, imports fell recently, providing further evidence of weak domestic demand. The slowdown is likely the result of three factors: excess capacity in the economy, which is deterring businesses from investing further; weak export markets, such as Europe, which have hurt Chinese exports; and government efforts to ease exces-sive growth of credit, especially in the shadow banking system.

Moreover, the government is taking fur-ther action to avoid a financial crisis. Local government debt increased 67 percent from 2010 to 2014. The government in Beijing has announced that the amount of debt that local governments can take will be restricted.1 The

central government will set quotas that the local and provincial governments must follow. They will only be allowed to borrow for capital expenditures and not for general spending. And they will no longer be permitted to engage in off-balance-sheet borrowing through special vehicles, which has led to an explosion of local government debt and a significant financial risk. Observers said that while this restric-tion will have a negative impact on economic growth in the short run, it is essential to pre-vent further crises down the road.

Another area in which the government is seeking to avoid future problems is property development. China doesn’t want any more ghost towns. In recent years, there have been numerous property developments involving massive numbers of high-rise apartment build-ings and shopping centers that remain empty. Such wasted investment not only fails to

ChinaWill easing credit market conditions help?

By Dr. Ira Kalish

5

boost productive capacity or living standards, it poses a threat to the financial system. In response, the government has announced that, going forward, it will more strictly regulate the development of new urban centers. An official in Beijing said that new urban areas will not be permitted unless a regional government can demonstrate that the existing urban areas are too densely popu-lated or that new areas are needed to cope with natural disasters.2

Of course a good way to regulate develop-ment would be to promote market pricing of credit for property developers and to more strictly regulate the shadow banking system, which has supplied credit to developers.

Yet the urge to engage in economic plan-ning has not disappeared in China. A top official at the central bank said that China ought to target specific industries for govern-ment assistance in order to further develop

the economy.3 He mentioned agriculture and technology. He also said that the government should encourage the development of small private enterprises. Interestingly, another thing he said was that the economy needs to grow at least 6.7 percent per year in order to achieve the government’s long-term targets. This is a

rate of growth consid-erably less than what has been discussed lately, but it may be more realistic.

What is the solution to China’s continued economic

slowdown? Evidently the leadership thinks that easing credit market conditions will do the trick. The government loosened monetary policy recently, injecting 500 billion Chinese yuan into the system. But the problem is that this will only have a favorable impact if banks lend the extra money at their disposal. This, in turn, will require borrowers to bor-row—but will they? The economy is beset by

China doesn’t want any more ghost towns

6 | Asia Pacific Economic Outlook

excess capacity, weak demand, a large volume of debt, declining property prices, and declin-ing inflation—not exactly a recipe for strong investment demand.

Instead it could be that China is facing the start of a seizing up of credit markets: Monetary policy becomes ineffective because businesses simply don’t want to borrow regardless of how favorable the terms. This is what happened in the United States back in 2008 and continues to take place in Western Europe today. In the United States, the solu-tion came, in part, from recapitalizing banks, which removed bad assets from their balance sheets. Something similar may be required in China. Indeed, China did this early in the last decade. In the United States, another part of the solution was a fiscal stimulus in which the government borrowed cheaply in order to boost spending while the private sector sat on its cash. In China, a series of mini fiscal stimuli are already under way, but the impact is uncer-tain, and China is clearly reluctant to once

again engage in massive fiscal stimulus. More importantly, China’s leaders will probably have to do what they have only talked about so far: start the process of reforms that entail liberal-izing the economy. A temporary slowdown in growth might also be unavoidable. As for policymakers, China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said recently, “China will not make major policy adjustments due to a change in any one economic indicator,” thus pouring cold water on any market expectations that a further shift in policy is imminent.

Finally, there are some positive signs for China’s economy. First, there is a continuing rise in wages for workers. This bodes well for China transitioning away from investment-led growth and toward consumer-led growth. In addition, although export demand has been far weaker than in the past, there has been a noticeable pickup in exports in recent months, partly reflecting the strength of the US economy.

Endnotes

1. Bloomberg, “Default risk alert as Li shakes local safety net,” Thanhnien News, October 13, 2014, http://www.thanhnien-news.com/world/default-risk-alert-as-li-shakes-local-safety-net-32448.html.

2. Gordon C. Chang, “China responds to alarming local debt crisis,” Forbes, October 5, 2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/10/05/china-responds-to-alarming-local-debt-crisis/.

3. “China needs no ‘big stimulus’ despite slowdown: Senior economist,” Xinhuanet, October 12, 2014, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2014-10/12/c_133710036.htm.

November 2014 | 7

IndiaEconomy slowly stepping on growth accelerator

By Dr. Rumki Majumdar

ASIA’S third-largest economy is experienc-ing a gradual revival. The Indian econ-

omy expanded at 5.7 percent year over year in Q1 of FY 2014–15, its fastest pace in two-and-a-half years, primarily due to a boost from government spending and higher business investment.1 Government consumption expen-diture grew 8.8 percent; it was expected to be high in Q1 because of the general elections that were held in April and May. However, the more sustainable driver of growth, total fixed invest-ment, grew at an impressive rate of 7 percent after a dismal performance for over a year. Private final consumption expenditure growth remained modest at 5.6 percent, though it fell on a quarterly basis.

A marked recovery in the industrial index of production (IIP), which grew 4.1 percent in Q1, also aided recovery. Strong growth in

the manufacturing and mining sectors, along with a robust performance in the capital goods sector, supported the industrial recovery. The consumer durable goods sector, however, continued to contract, indicating poor con-sumer demand. However, the performance of the IIP has been highly unstable due to growth fluctuations in the manufacturing sector. After promising growth in Q1, the IIP fell 0.5 percent in July 2014 due to a contraction in the manufacturing index.

Tight monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is probably showing its impact on prices. Both the wholesale price index (WPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) have been declining over the past few months. The WPI fell sharply to 3.7 percent in August from 6.4 percent at the end of last year. The CPI too fell to 6.8 percent in August from 9.2


percent in December 2013. The fall in prices was primarily due to the high base effect and a decline in global crude oil prices in recent months. However, real factors such as supply constraints, particularly in food and infra-structure, high dependence on fuel imports, and elevated retail inflation will likely keep inflationary pressures up.

The balance of payment has improved significantly in the past year due to substantial improvements in both the current and capital account balances. The current account balance benefitted from restric-tions on imports of non-essential goods. Although the current account deficit was slightly higher in Q1 of FY 2014–15 rela-tive to the previous three quarters due to a higher trade deficit, it was track-ing below 2 percent of GDP. However, what is noteworthy is that the widening of the trade deficit was on account of an increase in nonoil and nongold imports during April–June 2014. There are indications that improved economic activities may put an upward pressure on the current account deficit going forward.

Institutional investment inflows started improving as early as Q4 of FY 2013–14 owing to reduced uncertainty around the US tapering of quantitative easing. In addition, there was growing optimism among investors in antici-pation of current Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning the general elections. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows reversed only after Modi’s win. The net FDI picked up in Q1 of FY 2014–15 to levels not seen in the past three years.

The fiscal deficit continues to pose risks to the economy. It increased sharply to 11 percent of GDP in Q1 of FY 2014–15 after recording a marginal surplus in Q4 of FY 2013–14, partly

due to higher government expenses during the election held in Q1. The fiscal deficit during this period had already crossed the halfway mark (56.1 percent) of the FY 2014–15 budget estimates and was higher than the 48.6 percent of the comparable period in the previous year. If the government plans to stick to its target fis-cal deficit of 4.1 percent of GDP this fiscal year, it has to cut its expenses considerably over the remainder of the year.

Policy actions

The new government seems to have started on a proactive note, with a positive feature being an emphasis on foreign policy as a key tool for economic development. The prime minister’s recent meetings with the leaders of the three largest economies (the United States, China, and Japan) will likely improve India’s international trade and investment relations. In addition, during his US visit, Modi met a galaxy of top American corporate executives and nonresident Indians. The intention was to reinvigorate their interest in investing in the government’s new initiatives related to smart cities, infrastructure, digitalization, education, and health.

Efforts are also being made to make min-istries more accountable and streamlined to improve investors’ sentiments and the business environment. Speedy decision making, online transaction systems and forest clearances for

Efforts are also being made to make ministries more accountable and streamlined to improve investors’ sentiments and the business environment.

November 2014 | 9

industrial projects, a focus on skill develop-ment, the amendment of labor laws, and fund allocation for the manufacturing sector, among others, have generated enthusiasm within the Indian corporate sector and among investors. The government has announced that it intends to standardize the goods and services tax throughout the country in 2015. In addition, it is set to substantially ease norms for foreign investment in the construc-tion sector and is considering the removal of restrictions on minimum size and capital for construction projects.

While the government is initiating pro-growth policies, the monetary policy of India continues to remain tight. There exist signifi-cant upside risks to inflation, arising both from food-price shocks due to an uneven monsoon across the country and from global concerns such as uncertainty over the economic recov-ery of the United States and Eurozone as well as geopolitical tensions. Consequently, the RBI has decided to keep key policy rates

unchanged. This is the fourth consecutive time that the RBI has kept rates unchanged despite demands from the industry to cut rates. The governor of the RBI has indicated that the need to avoid risk is the rationale behind tighter monetary policy. He has argued that, in the long run, this will help “break the back” of inflation and ensure a stable macroeconomic environment, which will ensure sustained economic growth.2

Overall, business and investment senti-ments are improving in the economy. Some rating agencies have projected a better growth outlook against the backdrop of a single-party majority government coming to power for the first time in three decades. Various policy initiatives by the new government to attract investments and improve the industry sector’s performance, among others, have improved expectations with respect to the economic outlook. The RBI projects an annual growth of 5.5 percent in FY 2014–15 and 6.5 percent the following year.

Endnotes

1. All growth figures are year over year unless otherwise specified. FY refers to the fiscal year, which begins in April and ends the following March.

2. “Containing inflation will make RBI’s position more comfortable: Rajan,” Hindu Businessline, September 25, 2014, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/we-need-to-break-this-persistence-in-price-rise-to-break-the-back-of-inflation-rbi-governor/article6444938.ece.


EVERY year, as December approaches, Thailand’s tourism industry eagerly awaits

the hordes of travelers from across the world that descend on the country. With direct con-tributions of 9 percent to GDP and 6.6 percent to employment, the sector is a key driver of the country’s economy.1 This year, however, tourism revenues have been hit by months of political instability. Between January and September, tourist arrivals fell 10.3 percent year over year.2 Worryingly, tourism is not the only casualty of political unrest; investments are down, and household consumption has barely grown. Subdued demand for Thailand’s exports has not helped the economy either. In such a scenario, the cessation of overt political hostilities following the May 22 coup is a wel-come relief. However, the army’s venture into governance is hardly the right way to restore

confidence in the economy and its institutions. Long-term concerns will not go away without political dialogue and compromise.

Staving off a recession

The economy expanded 0.9 percent quarter over quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q2 2014, thereby avoiding a technical reces-sion; GDP had contracted 1.9 percent in Q1. Year-over-year growth in Q2 was 0.4 percent, reversing course from a 0.5 percent decline in Q1. The change of fortune, albeit marginal, must have been a big relief for policymakers. However, it is still too early for the post-coup government to celebrate as the economic envi-ronment remains challenging. For example, private investment continues to suffer, declin-ing 6.9 percent year over year in Q2 after a 9.3

ThailandA coup might not bring solace

By Akrur Barua

November 2014 | 11

percent dip in Q1. Household consumption was also subdued in the second quarter; how-ever, at 0.2 percent, the segment returned to positive growth in Q2. There was a bit of cheer from exports, which expanded 0.4 percent in Q2 after four straight quarters of contraction.

Export-driven recovery not likely this year

The rise in exports in Q2 is not an indi-cation of an immediate recovery. External demand for Thailand’s exports continues to be weighed down by slowing growth in China and economic weakness in the European Union. The recent coup has also dealt a blow to free-trade talks between Thailand and the European Union; a return to the negotiating table is not likely before 2016, when a civilian administra-tion is expected. Also, from January 1, 2015, Thailand will no longer enjoy favorable tariffs under the European Union’s Generalized System of Preferences, which helps developing coun-tries access EU markets (this move is unre-lated to the recent coup). All these factors will continue to weigh on Thai exports this year. Exports declined 7.4 percent year over year in August, the steepest fall since the floods of 2011. And recently, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) revised down its exports growth fore-cast for 2014 to zero from a previous estimate of 3 percent.3

Dark clouds on the investment horizon

Political unrest in recent times has shaken business confidence in Thailand. The Business Sentiment Index came in below the critical 50 figure for the 14th straight time in August.4 As a result of this and weak external demand, industries remain under pressure. Production

fell 2.7 percent year over year in August; growth has been negative since March 2013. These factors, along with low capacity utiliza-tion (the Q2 2014 figure was the lowest in 10 quarters), do not augur well for investments this year.5 The new government understands this and seems intent on renewing investor interest. It has cleared a number of foreign investment proposals and set up an investment strategy for 2015–21, which focuses on high-value-added sectors as well as research and development. Foreign companies, however, will be worried about the long-term conse-quences of dealing with a government that does not have a democratic backing. Already, sanctions by the European Union have jolted

the investment plans of European automak-ers. Moreover, the political uncertainty comes at a time when Thailand’s neighbors—from Philippines to Myanmar—are redoubling efforts to entice foreign investors.

Not much support from consumers

Private consumption has been a key growth driver for the economy in recent years. However, political disturbance in recent times has dented consumption; in 2013, growth in the segment fell to 0.3 percent from 6.7 percent in 2012. The return to some form of political stability post the coup will likely aid private consumption in the near term. In August, consumer confidence rose to its highest level in 13 months before slipping a bit in September.6 However, private consumption will face

Sanctions by the European Union have jolted the investment plans of European automakers.


pressure from slowing economic growth and high household debt. This is despite sops from the new government, including an extension of tax breaks and public transport subsidies. Most importantly, spending by rural households will remain weak due to a discontinuation of the generous rice subsidy scheme. A one-time dole-out by the new government will not help much. And with drought on the horizon and restrictions on a second rice crop, farmers will not likely indulge in a consumption binge any time soon.

Monetary policy to remain accommodative

Fortunately for Thai consumers, inflation has been edging lower. In September, inflation eased for the fourth straight month to 1.75 per-cent, down from 2.10 percent in August. This is well within the BOT’s target of 0.5–3.0 percent. It is no wonder then that the BOT kept its key policy rate unchanged in September. Overall, inflationary pressures will remain benign for the next year given slow aggregate demand growth. In such a scenario, monetary policy will remain accommodative as policymakers focus on reviving the economy. And although pressure on the Thai baht is likely to rise after any interest rate hike by the US Federal

Endnotes

1. World Travel and Tourism Council, Travel and tourism: Economic impact 2014 Thailand, October 2014, http://www.wttc.org/~/media/files/reports/economic%20impact%20research/country%20reports/thailand2014.ashx.

2. “Thailand’s September tourist arrivals fall 7 pct on year,” Reuters, October 7, 2014, http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/07/thailand-economy-tourism-idINL3N0S20QH20141007.

3. Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol, “Thai central bank cuts expectation for export growth,” Wall Street Journal, Septem-ber 26, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/articles/thai-central-bank-cuts-expectations-for-export-growth-1411733675.

4. Bank of Thailand, “Report on Business Sentiment Index,” August 2014, http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/EconomicCondi-tions/Thai/Index/Documents/BSI_EN_aug14.pdf.

5. Orathai Sriring and Kitiphong Thaichareon, “Thailand avoids recession in Q2, but doubts on recovery pace remain,” Reuters, August 18, 2014, http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/18/thailand-economy-gdp-idINL4N0QO1B820140818.

6. Kitiphong Thaichareon, “Thai Sept consumer confidence slips; govt hopes spending will help,” Reuters, October 2, 2014, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/02/thailand-economy-confidence-idUKL3N0RX0LR20141002.

Reserve next year, it will not be enough to force the BOT to raise rates as well. Luckily for consumers, low interest rates imply that debt-servicing costs will remain low for some more time. However, given the scale of the house-hold debt problem in Thailand, this will only be a temporary reprieve.

The need for a stable polity

While the post-coup government has stated its commitment to economic growth and fiscal prudence, much will depend on how these policies pan out in later years. After the reintroduction of democracy, any continua-tion of political turmoil will definitely dent Thailand’s image, especially among foreign investors. While a junta will ensure stability in the short term, it still has not communicated its plans to tackle the deep political divide in the country. If political tensions crop up after civilian rule is reintroduced, Thailand’s attrac-tion for investors (and even tourists) will be under threat. After all, a number of Southeast Asian nations are vying for investors’ attention, especially those investors seeking other options besides China due to the rising cost of produc-tion there. Without a steady path to political stability, Thailand might just drop off investors’ radar.

November 2014 | 13

COMPARISON OF GAINER STATES: MINING, CONSTRUCTION, AND MANUFACTURING

Issues by the NumbersThe geography of jobs: Mapping the recoveryJune 2014

Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.Graphic: Deloitte University Press | dupress.com

Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

-7.1%Colorado

-6.9%Iowa

-6.9%Montana

-8.2%Louisiana

-5.4%Texas

0%South Dakota

-13.9%Massachusetts

-7.1%Minnesota

-16.9%New York

-2.7%North Dakota

-16.6%West Virginia

-5.9%Nebraska

-3%Washington

-6%Utah

9.6%Oklahoma20.7%

Alaska

MANUFACTURING

-20.1%Colorado

-4.1%Iowa

-25.1%Montana

-9.1%Minnesota

-7%New York

-26.6%Washington

-20.8%Utah

3.7%Oklahoma

10.2%District of Columbia

-2.3%Alaska

0%Louisiana

-5.1%Texas

-8.9%South Dakota

-9.9%Massachusetts

71.9%North Dakota

-12.3%West Virginia

-7.3%Nebraska

CONSTRUCTION

20.8%Colorado

8.6%Louisiana

31.4%Texas

17.3%Nebraska

-31.4%Washington

24.6%Oklahoma21.3%

Alaska

3.9%Iowa

0%South Dakota

-41.6%Massachusetts

19.5%Minnesota

19.2%West Virginia

17%Montana

-14.3%New York

378.1%North Dakota

13.8%Utah

MINING

3.7%Colorado

1.3%Iowa

2.5%Massachusetts

1.3%Minnesota

2.4%New York

27.3%North Dakota

1.4%West Virginia

7%District of Columbia

1.4%Washington

4.5%Utah

6.4%Alaska

1.5%Montana

1.3%Louisiana

9%Texas

3%South Dakota

1.9%Nebraska

3%Oklahoma

GAINER STATES’TOTAL

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

(all economic sectors)

Only 16 states and the

District of Columbia

currently have

employment at least

1 percent above their pre-recession

employment levels.

Among the states that

have experienced the

highest overall

employment gains are

the beneficiaries of

expanding energy production.

Construction and

manufacturing remain

20 percent and 12 percent below

their December 2007

levels for the economy as

a whole.

States shaded green experienced net growth in

employment between December 2007 and

April 2014, while states shaded red experienced

net losses in employment over the same period.

Additional resources

Deloitte Research thought leadershipGlobal Economic Outlook, Q4 2014: Eurozone, China, United States, Japan, India, Russia, Brazil, United Kingdom

United States Economic Forecast, Volume 2, Issue 3

Issues by the Numbers, June 2014: The geography of jobs: Mapping the recovery

Please visit www.deloitte.com/research for the latest Deloitte Research thought leadership or contact Deloitte Services LP at: [email protected].

For more information about Deloitte Research, please contact John Shumadine, Director, Deloitte Research, part of Deloitte Services LP, at +1 703.251.1800 or via e-mail at [email protected].


Contact information

Dr. Ira Kalish is chief global economist of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.

Dr. Rumki Majumdar is a macroeconomist and a manager at Deloitte Research, Deloitte Services LP.

Akrur Barua is an economist and a manager at Deloitte Research, Deloitte Services LP.

About the authors

Global Economics TeamAditi RaoDeloitte Research Deloitte Services LPIndia Tel: +1 615 209 3941E-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Ira KalishDeloitte Touche Tohmatsu LimitedUSATel: +1.213.688.4765E-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Rumki MajumdarDeloitte Research Deloitte Services LPIndiaTel: +1 615 209 4090E-mail: [email protected]

Akrur BaruaDeloitte Research Deloitte Services LP IndiaTel: +1 678 299 9766E-mail: [email protected]

Chinese Services Group Leaders Global Chinese Services Group Lawrence Chia Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited China Tel: +86 10 8520 7758 E-mail: [email protected] US Chinese Services Group

Mark Robinson Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LimitedCanada Tel: +1 416 601 6065E-mail: [email protected]

Japanese Services Group Leaders Global Japanese Services Group Hitoshi Matsumoto Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC Japan Tel: +09 09 688 8396 E-mail: [email protected] Japanese Services Group

John Jeffrey Deloitte LLP USA Tel: +1 212 436 3061 E-mail: [email protected]

Global Industry LeadersConsumer BusinessAntoine de RiedmattenDeloitte Touche Tohmatsu LimitedFranceTel: +33.1.55.61.21.97E-mail: [email protected]

Energy & ResourcesCarl HughesDeloitte Touche Tohmatsu LimitedUKTel: +44.20.7007.0858E-mail: [email protected]

Financial ServicesChris HarveyDeloitte LLPUK Tel: +44.20.7007.1829E-mail: [email protected]

Life Sciences & Health CarePete MooneyDeloitte Touche Tohmatsu LimitedUSATel: +1.617.437.2933E-mail: [email protected]

ManufacturingTim HanleyDeloitte Touche Tohmatsu LimitedUSATel: +1.414.977.2520E-mail: [email protected]

Public SectorPaul MacmillanDeloitte Touch Tohmatsu LimitedCanadaTel: +1.416.874.4203E-mail: [email protected]

Telecommunications, Media & TechnologyJolyon BarkerDeloitte & Touche LLP UKTel: +44 20 7007 1818E-mail: [email protected]

November 2014 | 15

US Industry Leaders Banking & Securities and Financial Services Robert ContriDeloitte LLP USA Tel: +1 212 436 2043 E-mail: [email protected]

Consumer & Industrial Products Craig Giffi Deloitte LLP USA Tel: +1 216 830 6604 E-mail: [email protected]

Health Plans and Health Sciences & Government John Bigalke Deloitte LLP USA Tel: +1 407 246 8235 E-mail: [email protected]

Power & Utilities and Energy & Resources John McCue Deloitte LLP USA Tel: +216 830 6606 E-mail: [email protected]

Telecommunications, Media & Technology Eric Openshaw Deloitte LLP USA Tel: +1 714 913 1370 E-mail: [email protected]

Asia Pacific Industry Leaders Consumer Business Yoshio Matsushita Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Japan Tel: +81 3 4218 7502 E-mail: [email protected]

Energy & Resources Adi Karev Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC Hong Kong Tel: +852 2852 6442 E-mail: [email protected]

Financial ServicesKaren Bowman Deloitte & Touche LLP Hong Kong Tel: +852 2852 6786 E-mail: [email protected]

Life Sciences & Health Care Ko Asami Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Japan Tel: +81 3 4218 7419 E-mail: [email protected]

Manufacturing Kumar Kandaswami Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Tel: +91 44 6688 5401 E-mail: [email protected]

Telecommunications, Media & Technology Yoshi Asaeda Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Japan Tel: +81 3 6213 3488 E-mail: [email protected]


November 2014 | 17

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