Asia Pacific Countries’ Security Outlook and Its Implications for the Defense Sector

The National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan

NIDS JOINT RESEARCH SERIES No. 5

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ISBN : 978-4-939034-73-2

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Contents

Preface ........................................................................................................................1Eiichi Katahara

CHAPTER 1 ..............................................................................................................3Indonesia’s Security Outlook, Defence Policy and Regional CooperationRizal SUKMA

Introduction ................................................................................................................. 3Indonesia’s Security Challenges: Internal Security, NTS and External Threats ....... 4Implications for Defence: Policy, Force Structure and Procurements ....................... 9Regional Cooperation: Diplomacy as the First Line of Defence ............................. 21Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 23

CHAPTER 2 .............................................................................................................25Malaysia’s Security Outlook and ChallengesTang Siew Mun

Introduction ............................................................................................................... 25Overview of Malaysia’s Strategic Outlook .............................................................. 26Security Challenges: Upholding Sovereignty to Human Security ............................ 28Funding Security in Times of Economic Downturn ................................................ 34Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 35

CHAPTER 3 .............................................................................................................37The Philippines’ Security Outlook in 2010NOEL M. MORADA

Introduction .........................................................................................................37Security Challenges ...........................................................................................37Natural Disasters: Lessons from Worst Flooding in 2009 .................................45Human Security Challenges: Poverty Alleviation and Impact of Global Economic Crisis ..........................47Implications for the Defense Sector ..................................................................51Conclusion ..........................................................................................................53

CHAPTER 4 .............................................................................................................55Singapore’s Security Outlook: The Immutability of History, Geography and Demography?LAM Peng Er

Introduction ........................................................................................................55Singapore’s Strategic Culture ............................................................................58History ................................................................................................................58Demography and Geography .............................................................................60Recent trends: R&D, Defense Procurement and Training Abroad ..................61Conclusion ..........................................................................................................64

CHAPTER 5 .............................................................................................................67Fiji Islands’ Security Challenges and Defense Policy IssuesSandra Tarte

Introduction ........................................................................................................67Current Security Challenges ..............................................................................68Relationship Between Security Challenges and Defense Posture .....................77Future Prospects and Regional Dimensions ......................................................82

CHAPTER 6 .............................................................................................................85Thailand’s Security Outlook: External Trends and Internal CrisesThitinan Pongsudhirak

Introduction ........................................................................................................85Security Concerns on Burma/Myanmar............................................................86Thai–Cambodian Relations and Border Tensions ............................................88Terrorism and the Southern Malay-Muslim Insurgency ....................................90Other Threat Perceptions ...................................................................................92Implications for Thailand’s Defence Sector ......................................................92

CHAPTER 7 .............................................................................................................95Cambodia’s Security Challenges and Implications for Defence Policy Chap Sotharith

Introduction ........................................................................................................95Historical Background on Cambodian Armed Forces .....................................96Main Security Challenges ..................................................................................98Implications for Defence Policy .......................................................................103Future Directions .............................................................................................105

CHAPTER 8 ...........................................................................................................107Vietnam’s Security Challenges: Hanoi’s New Approach to National Security and Implications to Defense and Foreign PoliciesTung Nguyen Vu

Introduction ......................................................................................................107Identifying Security Challenges and Policy Implications ...............................108New Threat to National Security ......................................................................113Diplomacy Is the First Line of Defense: The Continued Strategy ..................117By Way of Conclusion: Defense Policy in a Wider Context ...........................120

CHAPTER 9 ...........................................................................................................123Tatmadaw and Myanmar’s Security ChallengesTin Maung Maung Than

Introduction ......................................................................................................123Military’s National Security Perspective and Threat Perceptions ..................124MAF: Modern and Strong ...............................................................................128Institutionalizing Tatmadaw’s Leading Role in Myanmar ..............................136Conclusion: Blind Spots? .................................................................................138

CHAPTER 10 .........................................................................................................141China’s Security Challenges: Priorities and Policy ImplicationsJian Yang

Introduction ......................................................................................................141Internal Security Challenges ............................................................................142External Security Challenges ...........................................................................144The Taiwan Issue ..............................................................................................147Prioritising China’s Security Challenges .........................................................148Implications for China’s Military Modernisation ............................................151Regional Implications ......................................................................................154Conclusion ........................................................................................................157

CHAPTER 11 .........................................................................................................161Japan’s Security Outlook: Its Implications for the Defense PolicyCHIJIWA Yasuaki

Introduction ......................................................................................................161Security Challenges Facing Japan ...................................................................162Japan’s Defense Policy, Force Structure and Defense Procurement .............164Prospects for Japan’s Defense Policy and Regional Cooperation in Asia-Pacific ................................................................................................168Conclusion ........................................................................................................174

CONTRIBUTORS ................................................................................................175

Preface

This report is the proceedings of the inaugural “Workshop on Asia-Pacific Security”

hosted by the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS). The workshop was held

on January 21–22, 2009, with distinguished experts invited from the Asia-Pacific

region. The workshop builds on the previously held annual “Exchange Program for

Defense Studies with Southeast Asian Countries” which continued until 2008. This

work is published as part of “International Collaboration Series” in which NIDS has

been engaged.

The theme of the workshop is “Security Outlook of the Asia Pacific Countries and

Its Implications for the Defense Sector.” Each author presents his or her perspective

on the assigned country’s security outlook, including important security challenges

and their implications for the country’s defense policy, force structure and defense

procurement, and the future prospects for regional security cooperation.

In the Asia-Pacific region, there has been progress in building regional frameworks

such as Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

and East Asian Summit (EAS), yet unlike Europe, the region lacks an overarching

security architecture. The traditional security issues remain in the region, but the

so-called non-traditional security issues such as terrorism, natural disasters, and

pandemic are also looming large on the region’s security policy agenda. We hope

that the report will enhance our knowledge about the major security issues facing the

Asia-Pacific region, and contribute greatly to the deepening of mutual understanding

and cooperation between Japan and the Asia-Pacific countries.

The authors are Dr. Rizal Sukma, Dr. Tang Siew Mun, Dr. Noel M. Morada, Dr. Lam

Peng Er, Dr. Sandra Tarte, Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Dr. Chap Sotharith, Dr. Tung

Nguyen Vu, Dr. Tin Maung Maung Than, Dr. Jian Yang and Dr. Yasuaki Chijiwa, The

opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessary reflect the views of

NIDS or any institutions with which they are affiliated.

We would like to thank the authors for their valuable contributions and to those who

participated in the planning and organizing the workshop.

October 2010

Eiichi Katahara

Deputy Director, Research Department