Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017: Singapore...in Indonesia (USD 1.90) and were more than double...
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Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017: Singapore Prepared by Oxford Economics August 2018
Transcript of Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017: Singapore...in Indonesia (USD 1.90) and were more than double...
Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017: SingaporePrepared by Oxford EconomicsAugust 2018
22 | Singapore Market Summary
DisclaimerThe Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017 Report (the “Report”) on the illicit tobacco trade in selected Asian markets (including Australia and New Zealand) has been prepared by Oxford Economics (OE). OE enjoyed academic freedom and full editorial control of the Report. We are grateful for the inputs and data received from public sector and industry stakeholders.
OE prepared the Report in accordance with specific terms of reference agreed between Philip Morris International Management SA, an affiliate of Philip Morris International (PM), and OE. Financial support for the Report was provided by PM. OE assume all responsibility for the Report analysis, findings, and conclusion. The terms of reference under which OE were engaged by Philip Morris International Management SA are detailed in the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017 Methodological Overview Report, available to download via the following link illicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com
33
Legal Domestic Sales:
2.8 bn cigarettes
Singapore
Price:
SGD 13.0 USD 9.62
| Singapore Market Summary
Legal Domestic Sales were estimated at 2.8 billion cigarettes in 2017, rising by 2.5% (around 70 million cigarettes) in comparison with 2016. Legal Domestic Sales have remained broadly stable at around 2.8 billion cigarettes over the duration of the Asia illicit Tobacco Indicator research programme.
PMI accounts for nearly half of all Legal Domestic Sales, with a market share of 48% – unchanged from 2016 – followed by JTI (26% share of the market), and BAT (19%).
There was no change in the Excise Tax rate in 2017. The changes to the regulatory environment in 2017 included a point-of-sale display ban of tobacco products, effective from 1 August 2017, and an extension to the Smoking (Prohibition in Certain Places) Act that prohibits smoking in outdoor areas around educational institutions including universities, and inside the compounds of private institutions, except in designated smoking areas. In November 2017, Parliament passed a regulation to progressively raise the minimum legal age for smoking from 18 years old to 21 years old by 2021, effective 1 January 2019.
As of 2017, cigarette prices in Singapore have remained stable since the last Excise Tax hike was implemented in 2014. A pack of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes cost SGD 13.0 (USD 9.62) per pack of 20 cigarettes in 2017.1
Singapore ranks among the most expensive markets for domestically sold cigarettes included in the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator research programme. The price differentials with its neighbouring countries are considerable. In 2017, based on a pack of 20 cigarettes of the Most Sold Brand, prices in Singapore cost five times more than in Indonesia (USD 1.90) and were more than double the equivalent price in Malaysia (USD 4.02).
Singapore: Legal Domestic Sales
3
1 Price per pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand in October 2017 based on industry data.
44
352 352 352 352 352 352
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarette sales bn
15
18
12
9
6
3
0
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
0
20
40
60
80
100
201720162015201420132012
74.480.4
25.6 19.6
86.2
13.8
88.0
12.0
85.6
14.4
85.4
14.6
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
Ciga
rette
s bn
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201720162015201420132012
2.6 2.7
0.9
3.6 3.5 3.3
0.7
2.9
0.53.3
2.8
0.43.1
2.7
0.4
3.3
2.8
0.5
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
SGD
bn
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FY 2017/18FY 2016/17FY 2015/16FY 2014/15FY 2013/14FY 2012/13
1.0 1.0
0.3 0.2
1.2
0.2
1.21.0
0.20.1
1.2
0.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
SGD
per 1
,000
ciga
rette
s
10.2%388 388388388
0
3
6
9
12
15%
Euromonitor(2017)
Oxford Economics(2017)
13.8
3.63.7
352 352 352 352 352 352
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarette sales bn
15
18
12
9
6
3
0
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
0
20
40
60
80
100
201720162015201420132012
74.480.4
25.6 19.6
86.2
13.8
88.0
12.0
85.6
14.4
85.4
14.6
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
Ciga
rette
s bn
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201720162015201420132012
2.6 2.7
0.9
3.6 3.5 3.3
0.7
2.9
0.53.3
2.8
0.43.1
2.7
0.4
3.3
2.8
0.5
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
SGD
bn
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FY 2017/18FY 2016/17FY 2015/16FY 2014/15FY 2013/14FY 2012/13
1.0 1.0
0.3 0.2
1.2
0.2
1.21.0
0.20.1
1.2
0.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
SGD
per 1
,000
ciga
rette
s
10.2%388 388388388
0
3
6
9
12
15%
Euromonitor(2017)
Oxford Economics(2017)
13.8
3.63.7
Source: Singapore Customs 2Rate applied in October of each year to the Most Sold Brand.
Source: Oxford Economics based on industry data 3Price of the Most Sold Brand in October of each year.
Singapore: Excise duty applied to cigarettes2
Singapore: Legal Domestic Sales and prices3
Singapore Market Summary |
55
Singapore: Cigarette Consumption
Source: Oxford Economics1The Empty Pack Surveys were undertaken in 2017 H1 and 2017 H2. See Report methodology for more details.
Singapore: Composition of cigarette consumption
The results from two Empty Pack Surveys and Singapore Customs data on the volume of duty-paid releases of tobacco were used to estimate Total Consumption of cigarettes in Singapore.1
Total Consumption (legal and illicit) was estimated at 3.3 billion cigarettes in 2017, rising by 4.9% in comparison with 2016. Of this, an estimated 86.2% or 2.8 billion cigarettes was Legal Domestic Consumption and the remaining 13.8% was Illicit Consumption.
There is no Non-Domestic Legal Consumption in Singapore due to the zero passenger duty-free personal import allowance limit.
The volume of Illicit Consumption grew by an estimated 21.0% in 2017, representing an increase of 78 million illicit cigarettes consumed in the year.
The rise in Illicit Consumption partially unwound the decline registered in 2016. As a consequence, the level of Illicit Incidence rose by 1.8 percentage points to 13.8% from 12.0%.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % change
2016-17 Cigarettes bn % Cigarettes
bn % Cigarettes bn % Cigarettes
bn % Cigarettes bn % Cigarettes
bn %
Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC) 2.6 74.4 2.8 80.4 2.9 85.4 2.8 85.6 2.7 88.0 2.8 86.2 2.7
Legal Domestic Sales (LDS) 2.6 — 2.8 — 2.9 — 2.8 — 2.8 — 2.8 — 2.5
Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes -0.0 — -0.0 — -0.0 — -0.0 — -0.0 — -0.0 — -11.8
Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND) 0.9 25.6 0.7 19.6 0.5 14.6 0.5 14.4 0.4 12.0 0.5 13.8 21.0
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a
Non-Domestic Illicit 0.9 25.6 0.7 19.6 0.5 14.6 0.5 14.4 0.4 12.0 0.5 13.8 21.0
Domestic Illicit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a
Total Consumption 3.6 100.0 3.5 100.0 3.3 100.0 3.3 100.0 3.1 100.0 3.3 100.0 4.9
Total Illicit Consumption 0.9 25.6 0.7 19.6 0.5 14.6 0.5 14.4 0.4 12.0 0.5 13.8 21.0
| Singapore Market Summary
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Source: Oxford Economics
Source: Oxford Economics
352 352 352 352 352 352
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarette sales bn
15
18
12
9
6
3
0
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
0
20
40
60
80
100
201720162015201420132012
74.480.4
25.6 19.6
86.2
13.8
88.0
12.0
85.6
14.4
85.4
14.6
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
Ciga
rette
s bn
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201720162015201420132012
2.6 2.7
0.9
3.6 3.5 3.3
0.7
2.9
0.53.3
2.8
0.43.1
2.7
0.4
3.3
2.8
0.5
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
SGD
bn
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FY 2017/18FY 2016/17FY 2015/16FY 2014/15FY 2013/14FY 2012/13
1.0 1.0
0.3 0.2
1.2
0.2
1.21.0
0.20.1
1.2
0.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
SGD
per 1
,000
ciga
rette
s
10.2%388 388388388
0
3
6
9
12
15%
Euromonitor(2017)
Oxford Economics(2017)
13.8
3.63.7
Singapore: Composition of cigarette consumption(% of Total Consumption)
352 352 352 352 352 352
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarette sales bn
15
18
12
9
6
3
0
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
0
20
40
60
80
100
201720162015201420132012
74.480.4
25.6 19.6
86.2
13.8
88.0
12.0
85.6
14.4
85.4
14.6
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
Ciga
rette
s bn
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201720162015201420132012
2.6 2.7
0.9
3.6 3.5 3.3
0.7
2.9
0.53.3
2.8
0.43.1
2.7
0.4
3.3
2.8
0.5
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
SGD
bn
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FY 2017/18FY 2016/17FY 2015/16FY 2014/15FY 2013/14FY 2012/13
1.0 1.0
0.3 0.2
1.2
0.2
1.21.0
0.20.1
1.2
0.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
SGD
per 1
,000
ciga
rette
s
10.2%388 388388388
0
3
6
9
12
15%
Euromonitor(2017)
Oxford Economics(2017)
13.8
3.63.7
Singapore: Composition of cigarette consumption(number of cigarettes)
Singapore Market Summary |
77
Singapore: Government Finances Tobacco taxation in Singapore comprises a unit-specific Excise Tax duty of SGD 388 per 1,000 cigarettes, held steady at this level since 2014, prior to which a duty of SGD 352 per 1,000 cigarettes was levied. Additionally, an ad valorem GST rate of 7% on top of the Excise Tax also applies, in common with other goods and services.
Total revenues from Excise Tax on tobacco rose to SGD 1.2 billion in the fiscal year 2017/18 (running from April 2017 to March 2018). This represented an increase of 17.0% in comparison with the last fiscal year.
The rise in government revenues is broadly aligned with the 19.5% rise in Legal Domestic Sales over the same period, based on Singapore Customs data.1
The estimated Tax Loss from Illicit Consumption rose by 41.1% in the fiscal year 2017/18, in line with the rise in estimated Illicit Consumption over the same period. However, the Tax Loss remained below the peak level estimated in fiscal year 2012/13.
The Excise Tax Loss as a share of total potential Excise Tax revenues rose to 13.7% in the fiscal year 2017/18, in line with the estimated level of Illicit Incidence for the calendar year 2017.
Source: Singapore Customs and Oxford Economics based on industry dataEstimated number of illicit cigarettes purchased adjusted for fiscal year.Fiscal years run from April to March.1 Data from Singapore Customs suggests that while Legal Domestic Sales rose by just 2.5% in the calendar year 2017, the volume of duty-paid releases of tobacco rose by 19.5% in the fiscal year 2017/18. This was underpinned by a sharp decline in Legal Domestic Sales in 2017 Q1, which was recovered in 2018 Q1.
Singapore: Actual government revenues and estimated Tax Loss
2012/13fiscal year
2013/14fiscal year
2014/15fiscal year
2015/16fiscal year
2016/17fiscal year
2017/18fiscal year
% change in local
currency2016/17-2017/18
SGD mn
USD mn
SGD mn
USD mn
SGD mn
USD mn
SGD mn
USD mn
SGD mn
USD mn
SGD mn
USD mn
Actual revenue from excise duties on tobacco 969 780 1,043 828 1,228 953 1,205 869 986 712 1,154 850 17.0%
Estimated number of illicit cigarettes purchased (cigarettes mn)
913 696 526 509 335 473 41.1%
Estimated Tax Loss from Illicit Consumption 357 287 271 215 224 174 216 156 143 103 202 149 41.1%
Lost excise revenue 321 258 247 196 204 158 197 142 130 94 183 135 41.1%
Lost VAT revenue 36 29 24 19 19 15 19 14 13 9 18 13 41.1%
Excise Tax Loss as % of potential total Excise Tax revenues
24.9% 19.1% 14.3% 14.1% 11.7% 13.7%
| Singapore Market Summary
88
Source: Singapore Customs and Oxford Economics based on industry data
352 352 352 352 352 352
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarette sales bn
15
18
12
9
6
3
0
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
0
20
40
60
80
100
201720162015201420132012
74.480.4
25.6 19.6
86.2
13.8
88.0
12.0
85.6
14.4
85.4
14.6
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
Ciga
rette
s bn
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201720162015201420132012
2.6 2.7
0.9
3.6 3.5 3.3
0.7
2.9
0.53.3
2.8
0.43.1
2.7
0.4
3.3
2.8
0.5
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
SGD
bn
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FY 2017/18FY 2016/17FY 2015/16FY 2014/15FY 2013/14FY 2012/13
1.0 1.0
0.3 0.2
1.2
0.2
1.21.0
0.20.1
1.2
0.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
SGD
per 1
,000
ciga
rette
s
10.2%388 388388388
0
3
6
9
12
15%
Euromonitor(2017)
Oxford Economics(2017)
13.8
3.63.7
Singapore: Actual government revenues and estimated Excise Tax Loss
Singapore Market Summary |
99
Singapore: Trade Flows
Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics1 Singapore Customs. See https://www.customs.gov.sg/-/media/cus/files/media-releases/2017/for-website-singapore-customs-media-release---250117.pdf and https://www.customs.gov.sg/-/media/cus/files/media-releases/2017/240217-final.pdf
2 Figures in brackets reflect % change from 2016.
Indonesia 239 mn(+16.3%)
Malaysia132 mn(+18.5%)
Other/ Unspecified
21 mn(+50.3%)
Other Duty-Free labelled
products50 mn
(+37.2%)
Counterfeit4 mn
(+89.5%)
Singapore: Origin of total Non-Domestic Illicit Inflows2
Total450 mn(+21.0%)
Cigarettes mn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Indonesia 644 447 256 255 205 239Malaysia 205 168 164 137 112 132Other Duty-Free labelled products 50 31 37 51 37 50Other/Unspecified 11 32 29 29 17 25Counterfeit 1 – 4 1 2 4Total 910 678 489 473 372 450
The illicit market for cigarettes in Singapore was entirely composed of Non-Domestic Inflows in 2017 –consistent with previous years of the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator.
Over 83% of illicit Inflows into Singapore consisted of cigarettes intended for sale in Indonesia or Malaysia in 2017, where domestic cigarette prices are significantly cheaper.
Inflows of illicit cigarettes increased by 21.0% in 2017. This was underpinned by an increase across all main market variants of illicit cigarettes identified by the Empty Pack Surveys. Cigarettes with intended retail sale in Malaysia and Indonesia rose by 18.5% and 16.3% respectively, while other Duty-Free labelled products rose by more than one-third in comparison with 2016. Other market variant products rose by more than 50%.
Counterfeit cigarette consumption increased by nearly 90% to 4.1 million cigarettes in 2017, the highest level recorded since the beginning of the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator research programme. However, Counterfeit cigarettes remained less than 1% of total Illicit Consumption.
Singapore Customs have remained vigilant of illicit cigarette Inflows into Singapore. In 2017, customs seized 2.8 million packs of cigarettes, breaking 4 cigarette syndicates in the process. Their performance has been consistent over the previous 5 years as the agency continues to enforce strict regulations.
High-profile seizures in 2017 included a haul of 25,500 cartons of non-duty-paid cigarettes in just two days in January 2017, the largest on record since April 2015, and a seizure of nearly 14,500 cartons of non-duty-paid cigarettes in February. The total Excise Tax duty and GST evaded from these two incidents would have amounted to an estimated SGD 3.7 million.1
| Singapore Market Summary
1010
Singapore: Consumption breakdown 2017
Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics
0
0 500
500
1,000
1,000
1,500
1,500
2,000
2,000
2,500
2,500
3,000
3,000
3,500
3,500
Cigarettes mn
Cigarettes mn
Total 3,258
Legal Domestic
Sales2,831
2,808Legal
Domestic Consumption
Outflows of duty-paid 23
Other/Unspecified
Malaysia 1320
Counterfeit 40
Other Duty-Free labelled products 500
250Illicit Inflows
Non-Domestic Legal Inflows
Indonesia 0 239
Singapore Market Summary |
1111
Singapore: Other Estimates
Source Comment
Comparing consumption estimates with LDC (“bottom up” approach)
Using data on average annual cigarette consumption per adult (age 15 and above), plus UN population data, a "bottom up" estimate of cigarette consumption can be made which can then be compared with LDC. This approach yields an estimate for Total Consumption that is below LDC, implying no evidence of substantial Illicit Consumption. The source for Smoking Prevalence is the WHO FCTC 2016 (based on the National Health Surveillance Survey 2013), while average daily consumption comes from the Global Consumer Trends Survey 2012.
Euromonitor Passport, 2018 Euromonitor estimates an Illicit Incidence of 3.6% in 2017. The methodology, sampling, and coverage are unknown, so it is difficult to assess the robustness of this estimate.
Singapore: Alternative estimates of Illicit Consumption
| Singapore Market Summary
352 352 352 352 352 352
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarette sales bn
15
18
12
9
6
3
0
SGD per pack of 20 cigarettes
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
0
20
40
60
80
100
201720162015201420132012
74.480.4
25.6 19.6
86.2
13.8
88.0
12.0
85.6
14.4
85.4
14.6
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
Ciga
rette
s bn
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201720162015201420132012
2.6 2.7
0.9
3.6 3.5 3.3
0.7
2.9
0.53.3
2.8
0.43.1
2.7
0.4
3.3
2.8
0.5
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
SGD
bn
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FY 2017/18FY 2016/17FY 2015/16FY 2014/15FY 2013/14FY 2012/13
1.0 1.0
0.3 0.2
1.2
0.2
1.21.0
0.20.1
1.2
0.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
SGD
per 1
,000
ciga
rette
s
10.2%388 388388388
0
3
6
9
12
15%
Euromonitor(2017)
Oxford Economics(2017)
13.8
3.63.7
1212
Singapore: Data Sources
Primary source Calculation Comments
Legal Domestic Sales (LDS)
Singapore Customs data on the Duty Paid Releases of Tobacco.
— —
Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes
Empty Pack Survey data in other markets covered in this Report.
Empty Pack Survey data in other markets used to identify the presence of packs bearing Singaporean market-specific labelling (e.g., health warnings, tax stamps etc.).
Limited Outflows identified from Singapore in other Empty Pack Surveys.
Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC)
— Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of legal sales.
Limited Outflows of duty-paid cigarettes, so Legal Domestic Sales and Legal Domestic Consumption closely aligned.
Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND)
— Sum of Non-Domestic Legal and Non-Domestic Illicit.
—
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
— Estimated using passenger data, smoking rates, and passenger duty-free personal import allowance.
The passenger duty-free personal import allowance for Singapore is zero.
Non-Domestic Illicit Empty Pack Surveys. Based on Empty Pack Surveys plus OE estimates.
Estimates derived from the average of Empty Pack Surveys conducted in 2017 H1 and 2017 H2. See Report methodology for more details.
Domestic Illicit — Zero under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.
There is assumed to be no under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.
Total Illicit Consumption
— Sum of Non-Domestic Illicit and Domestic Illicit.
—
Total Consumption — Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes, plus estimated Non-Domestic Legal consumption, plus estimated Illicit Consumption.
The IT Flows Model estimate of consumption is 3.3 billion cigarettes for 2017.
Total Tax Loss — Total Illicit Consumption multiplied by the weighted average tax rates (Excise Tax and GST).
See Report methodology for more details.
Singapore Market Summary |
1313
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