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Asia: geopolitical building blocks and OBOR
Peter Hwang
Professor of Asian Economy
University of Tartu
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World’s 10 Largest Economies
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The Map of Asia Pacific
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The geopolitical building The geopolitical building The geopolitical building The geopolitical building blocksblocksblocksblocks
• Greater China (China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan)
• Northeast Asia (China, Japan, Korea)
• ASEAN: Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia)
• ASEAN: Philippine, Indonesia
• ASEAN: Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar, Brunei
• South Asia: India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri lanka, Maldives
• Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.
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Northeast Asia
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ASEAN
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SOUTH ASIA
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CENTRAL
ASIA
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One Belt, One Road
An Initiative Proposed by China
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One Belt One Road
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What’s Behind OROB?
• “We have no intention to form a small group detrimental to stability,” Xi said. “What we hope to create is a big family of harmonious co-existence.”
• Win-Win vs. Winner takes all
• 王道 (Willingness) vs. 霸道 (Power)
• Sea Power vs. Land Power
• Making use of excess capacity and the ability to build infrastructure
• Globalization of RMB (De-Dollarization)
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Tai ChiBoxing
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Major Events in Asia
China
• AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)
• SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)
• CIPS : Cross-Border InterbankPayment System
• BRICS+
• OBOR
Counterpart
• IMF
• NATO
• SWIFT
• G8
• “Old” Global Leaderhsip
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China-Pakistan Corridor
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China-Myanmar Corridor
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OBOR and Europe
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High-Speed Train
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Tianhe-2: The Fastest Computer in the World
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• 5G
• Electric Car
• Semiconductor
• Alibaba Single’s day (11/11) sale = 8-9 times of GDP of Estonia in 2016
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Uncertainties
• Crony capitalism, Rampant corruption and Capital flight
• Rich and Poor divide
• Massive debt at individual and county level
• Housing bubble
• Aging
• Pollution
• Immobility of social class
• Zombie SOEs and overcapacity
• Industrial base upgrading?
• Geopolitical conflicts: OBOR, South China Sea, South Asia
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China-Ice and Fire
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What to come?
• Change of constitution
• Deleveraging and focus on “real” economy
• De-emphasize GDP
• Clean Energy
• Manufacturing 2025
• OBOR and other geopolitical expansion
• Globalization of RMB
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Thank You