Artificial Intelligence New

8/18/2019 Artificial Intelligence New

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PROJECT REPORT

ON

“ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE”

Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Reuirement of !e"ree in

#a$helor of #u%ine%% Admini%tration &Com'uter Aided (ana"ement)

OF

(A*ARIS*I !+ANAN! ,NI-ERSIT+. RO*TA/

&Se%%ion0 123451236)

Submitted To0 Submitted #70

(r%8 Snehlata Name0 Ar9ind Sin"h

Le$turer of ##A !e'artment Cla%%0 ##A :CA(; 6thSem8

Roll No81


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AC/NO>LE!GE(ENT

I am very much thankful to Mrs. Snehlata (PROJECT GUIE! for "#v#n" me o$$ortun#ty an%

her "u#%ance &h#ch hel$s me throu"hout $re$ar#n" th#s re$ort. She has also $rov#%e% me a

valua'le su""est#ons an% ecellence "u#%ance a'out th#s $ro)ect &h#ch $rove% very hel$ful to me

to ut#l#*e my theoret#cal kno&le%"e #n $ract#cal f#el%.

I am thankful to M. Un#vers#ty+ Rohtak for $utt#n" me to th#s valua'le e$osure #nto the f#el% of

Research Metho%olo"y.

,t last I am also thankful to my fr#en%s+ &ho have "#ven me the#r construct#ve a%v#ce+ e%ucat#ve

su""est#on+ encoura"ement+ co-o$erat#on an% mot#vat#on to $re$are th#s re$ort.

&Ar9ind Sin"h)


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PREFACE

The t#tle of my $ro)ect #s “ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE”

Th#s $ro)ect re$ort #s on ho& ,rt#f#c#al Intell#"ence has evolve% from the earl#er t&enty one

century t#ll to%ay. It conta#ns emer"ence of ,I+ $ro"ramm#n" lan"ua"es an% $ro"ramm#n" co%es

use% #n a com$uter to make #t more user-fr#en%ly. Th#s re$ort also tells you &hy ,I 'ecome an

essent#al nee% #n to%ays &orl% an% ho& they are #nfluenc#n" our l#fe. It also tells a'out the

'us#ness uses of ,I. ,n% &hat #s the sco$e an% uses of ,I an% also &hat are the $rofess#ons

relate% to the ,I #n a $erson can make h#s career.

&Ar9ind Sin"h)


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CONTENTS

S8No8 To'i$ PAGE NO8

/. Intro%uct#on To The To$#c

0. Rev#e& of l#terature

1. Research Metho%olo"ya! O')ect#ves of the stu%y

'! Sco$e of the stu%yc! ata Collect#on%! 2#m#tat#ons of the stu%y

3. ata ,nalys#s 4 Inter$retat#on

5. Conclus#on

6. Recommen%at#on 4 Su""est#ons

7. 8#'l#o"ra$hy


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C*APTER5 3

INTRO!,CTION

To

T*E TOPIC


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Introdu$tion to Artifi$ial Intelli"en$e

,rt#f#c#al #ntell#"ence (,I! Com$uters th the a'#l#ty to m#m#c or %u$l#cate the funct#ons of the human

'ra#n

,rt#f#c#al #ntell#"ence systems

The $eo$le+ $roce%ures+ har%&are+ soft&are+ %ata+ an% kno&le%"e nee%e% to

%evelo$ com$uter systems an% mach#nes that %emonstrate the character#st#cs

of #ntell#"ence

>hat i% Artifi$ial Intelli"en$e?

Art#f#c#al Intell#"ence #s a 'ranch of Science &h#ch %eals th hel$#n" mach#nes f#n%

solut#ons to com$le $ro'lems #n a more human-l#ke fash#on. Th#s "enerally #nvolves

'orron" character#st#cs from human #ntell#"ence+ an% a$$ly#n" them as al"or#thms #n a

com$uter fr#en%ly &ay. , more or less fle#'le or eff#c#ent a$$roach can 'e taken

%e$en%#n" on the re9u#rements esta'l#she%+ &h#ch #nfluences ho& art#f#c#al the #ntell#"ent

'ehav#our a$$ears.

AI #s "enerally assoc#ate% th Com$uter Sc#ence+ 'ut #t has many #m$ortant l#nks th

other f#el%s such as Maths+ Psycholo"y+ Co"n#t#on+ 8#olo"y an% Ph#loso$hy+ amon" many

others. Our a'#l#ty to com'#ne kno&le%"e from all these f#el%s ll ult#mately 'enef#t our

$ro"ress #n the 9uest of creat#n" an #ntell#"ent art#f#c#al 'e#n".


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(John McCarthy+ Stanfor% Un#vers#ty!

: >hat i% artifi$ial intelli"en$e?

It #s the sc#ence an% en"#neer#n" of mak#n" #ntell#"ent mach#nes+ es$ec#ally #ntell#"ent

com$uter $ro"rams. It #s relate% to the s#m#lar task of us#n" com$uters to un%erstan% human

#ntell#"ence+ 'ut ,I %oes not have to conf#ne #tself to metho%s that are '#olo"#cally

o'serva'le.

: +e%. but @hat i% intelli"en$e?

Intell#"ence #s the com$utat#onal $art of the a'#l#ty to ach#eve "oals #n the &orl%. ;ary#n"

k#n%s an% %e"rees of #ntell#"ence occur #n $eo$le+ many an#mals an% some mach#nes.: I%nt there a %olid definition of intelli"en$e that doe%nt de'end on

relatin" it to human intelli"en$e?

or more com$le $ro'lems+


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th#n"s "et more %#ff#cult... Unl#ke humans+ com$uters have trou'le un%erstan%#n" s$ec#f#c

s#tuat#ons+ an% a%a$t#n" to ne& s#tuat#ons. ,rt#f#c#al Intell#"ence a#ms to #m$rove mach#ne

'ehav#or #n tackl#n" such com$le tasks.

To"ether th th#s+ much of ,I research #s allon" us to un%erstan% our #ntell#"ent

'ehav#or. ?umans have an #nterest#n" a$$roach to $ro'lem-solv#n"+ 'ase% on a'stract

thou"ht+ h#"h-level %el#'erat#ve reason#n" an% $attern reco"n#t#on. ,rt#f#c#al Intell#"ence

can hel$ us un%erstan% th#s $rocess 'y recreat#n" #t+ then $otent#ally ena'l#n" us to enhance

#t 'eyon% our current ca$a'#l#t#es.

Te$hnolo"7

There are many %#fferent a$$roaches to ,rt#f#c#al Intell#"ence+ none of &h#ch are e#ther

com$letely r#"ht or &ron". Some are o'v#ously more su#te% than others #n some cases+ 'ut

any &ork#n" alternat#ve can 'e %efen%e%. Over the years+ tren%s have emer"e% 'ase% on the

state of m#n% of #nfluent#al researchers+ fun%#n" o$$ortun#t#es as &ell as ava#la'le com$uter

har%&are.

Over the $ast f#ve %eca%es+ ,I research has mostly 'een focus#n" on solv#n" s$ec#f#c

$ro'lems.


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,s you may e$ect+ the 'us#ness of ,rt#f#c#al Intell#"ence #s 'ecom#n" one of the ma)or

%r#v#n" forces for research. =#th an ever "ron" market to sat#sfy+ there@s $lenty of room

for more $ersonnel. So #f you kno& &hat you@re %o#n"+ there@s $lenty of money to 'e ma%e

from #ntereste% '#" com$an#esA

: ,rt#f#c#al Intell#"ence #nvolves the stu%y ofB

automate% reco"n#t#on an% un%erstan%#n" of s#"nals

reason#n"+ $lann#n"+ an% %ec#s#on-mak#n"

learn#n" an% a%a$tat#on

,I has ma%e su'stant#al $ro"ress #n

reco"n#t#on an% learn#n"

some $lann#n" an% reason#n" $ro'lems 'ut many o$en research $ro'lems

,I ,$$l#cat#ons

Im$rovements #n har%&are an% al"or#thms

,I a$$l#cat#ons #n #n%ustry+ f#nance+ me%#c#ne+ an% sc#ence.

Rational a"ent 9ie@ of AI

: Ph#loso$hy 2o"#c+ metho%s of reason#n"+ m#n% as $hys#cal system+ foun%at#ons of

learn#n"+ lan"ua"e+ rat#onal#ty.

: Mathemat#cs >ormal re$resentat#on an% $roof+ al"or#thms+ com$utat#on+

(un!%ec#%a'#l#ty+ (#n!tracta'#l#ty

: Pro'a'#l#tyDStat#st#csmo%el#n" uncerta#nty+ learn#n" from %ata

: Econom#cs ut#l#ty+ %ec#s#on theory+ rat#onal econom#c a"ents

:


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3

Perce$t#ve system

: , system that a$$ro#mates the &ay a human sees+ hears+ an% feels

o')ects

;#s#on system

: Ca$ture+ store+ an% man#$ulate v#sual #ma"es an% $#ctures

Ro'ot#cs

: Mechan#cal an% com$uter %ev#ces that $erform te%#ous tasks th

h#"h $rec#s#on

E$ert system

: Stores kno&le%"e an% makes #nferences

The 'ranch of com$uter sc#ence concerne% th mak#n" com$uters 'ehave l#ke humans.

The term &as co#ne% #n /56 'y John McCarthy at the Massachusetts Inst#tute of

Technolo"y. ,rt#f#c#al #ntell#"ence #nclu%es


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• Games Play#n"B $ro"ramm#n" com$uters to $lay "ames such as chess an%

checkers

E$ert SystemsB $ro"ramm#n" com$uters to make %ec#s#ons #n real-l#fe

s#tuat#ons (for eam$le+ some e$ert systems hel$ %octors %#a"nose

%#seases 'ase% on sym$toms!


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e#stence+ 'utthey are not nearly as "oo% as human translators. There are alsovo#ce

reco"n#t#on systems that can convert s$oken soun%s #nto&r#tten &or%s+ 'ut they %o not

un%erstan% &hat they are &r#t#n"Hthey s#m$ly take %#ctat#on. Even these systems are 9u#te

l#m#te% --

you must s$eak slo&ly an% %#st#nctly.

In the early /s+ e$ert systems &ere 'el#eve% to re$resent thefuture of art#f#c#al

#ntell#"ence an% of com$uters #n "eneral. To %ate+ho&ever+ they have not l#ve% u$ to

e$ectat#ons. Many e$ertsystems hel$ human e$erts #n such f#el%s as me%#c#ne an%

En"#neer#n"+ 'ut they are very e$ens#ve to $ro%uce an% are hel$ful only #n s$ec#al

s#tuat#ons.To%ay+ the hottest area of art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence #s neural net&orks+&h#ch are

$rov#n" successful #n a num'er of %#sc#$l#nes such as vo#cereco"n#t#on an% natural-

lan"ua"e $rocess#n".

There are several $ro"ramm#n" lan"ua"es that are kno&n as ,Ilan"ua"es 'ecause they are

use% almost eclus#vely for ,Ia$$l#cat#ons. The t&o most common are 2ISP an% Prolo"

Prov#%e a h#"h $otent#al $ayoff or s#"n#f#cantly re%uce% %o&ns#%e r#sk

Ca$ture an% $reserve #rre$lacea'le human e$ert#se

Prov#%e e$ert#se nee%e% at a num'er of locat#ons at the same t#me or #n a host#le

env#ronment that #s %an"erous to human health

Prov#%e e$ert#se that #s e$ens#ve or rare

evelo$ a solut#on faster than human e$erts can

Prov#%e e$ert#se nee%e% for tra#n#n" an% %evelo$ment to share the s%om of

human e$erts th a lar"e num'er of $eo$le


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C*APTER 1

RE-IE>

OF

LITERAT,RE


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*ISTOR+ OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

The hi%tor7 of artifi$ial intelli"en$e &AI) 'e"an #n ant#9u#ty+ th myths+ stor#es an%rumors of art#f#c#al 'e#n"s en%o&e% th #ntell#"ence or consc#ousness 'y master

craftsmenH as Pamela McCor%uck &r#tes+ ,I 'e"an th Kan anc#ent sh to for"e the

"o%s.K

The see%s of mo%ern ,I &ere $lante% 'y class#cal $h#loso$hers &ho attem$te% to %escr#'e

the $rocess of human th#nk#n" as the mechan#cal man#$ulat#on of sym'ols. Th#s &ork

culm#nate% #n the #nvent#on of the $ro"ramma'le %#"#tal com$uter #n the /3s+ a mach#ne

'ase% on the a'stract essence of mathemat#cal reason#n". Th#s %ev#ce an% the #%eas 'eh#n%

#t #ns$#re% a han%ful of sc#ent#sts to 'e"#n ser#ously %#scuss#n" the $oss#'#l#ty of 'u#l%#n" an

electron#c 'ra#n.

The f#el% of ,I research &as foun%e% at a conference on the cam$us of artmouth Colle"e

#n the summer of /56. Those &ho atten%e% &oul% 'ecome the lea%ers of ,I research for

%eca%es. Many of them $re%#cte% that a mach#ne as #ntell#"ent as a human 'e#n" &oul%

e#st #n no more than a "enerat#on an% they &ere "#ven m#ll#ons of %ollars to make th#s

v#s#on come true. Eventually #t 'ecame o'v#ous that they ha% "rossly un%erest#mate% the

%#ff#culty of the $ro)ect. In /71+ #n res$onse to the cr#t#c#sm of James 2#"ht h#ll an%

on"o#n" $ressure from con"ress+ the U.S. an% 8r#t#sh Governments sto$$e% fun%#n"

un%#recte% research #nto art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence. Seven years later+ a v#s#onary #n#t#at#ve 'y

the Ja$anese Government #ns$#re% "overnments an% #n%ustry to $rov#%e ,I th '#ll#ons of

%ollars+ 'ut 'y the late s the #nvestors 'ecame %#s#llus#one% an% th%re& fun%#n" a"a#n.

Th#s cycle of 'oom an% 'ust+ of K,I ntersK an% summers+ cont#nues to haunt the f#el%.

Un%aunte%+ there are those &ho make etraor%#nary $re%#ct#ons even no&.

Pro"ress #n ,I has cont#nue%+ %es$#te the r#se an% fall of #ts re$utat#on #n the eyes of

"overnment 'ureaucrats an% venture ca$#tal#sts. Pro'lems that ha% 'e"un to seem

#m$oss#'le #n /7 have 'een solve% an% the solut#ons are no& use% #n successful

commerc#al $ro%ucts. ?o&ever+ no mach#ne has 'een 'u#lt th a human level of

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_historyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_McCorduckhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dartmouth_Collegehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Lighthillhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Governmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Governmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winterhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_historyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_McCorduckhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dartmouth_Collegehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Lighthillhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Governmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Governmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter


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#ntell#"ence+ contrary to the o$t#m#st#c $re%#ct#ons of the f#rst "enerat#on of ,I researchers.

K=e can only see a short %#stance ahea%+K a%m#tte% ,lan Tur#n"+ #n a famous /5 $a$er

that cataly*e% the mo%ern search for mach#nes that th#nk. K8ut+K he a%%e%+ K&e can see

much that must 'e %one.K

Real#st#c humano#% automatons &ere 'u#lt 'y craftsman from every c#v#l#*at#on+ #nclu%#n"

an Sh#+?ero of ,lean%r#a+,l-Ja*ar# an% =olf"an" von Fem$elen. The ol%est kno&n

automatons &ere the sacre% statues of anc#ent E"y$t an% Greece. The fa#thful 'el#eve% that

craftsman ha% #m'ue% these f#"ures th very real m#n%s+ ca$a'le of s%om an% emot#on

L ?ermes Tr#sme"#stus &rote that K'y %#scover#n" the true nature of the "o%s+ man has

'een a'le to re$ro%uce #t.K

Formal rea%onin"

,rt#f#c#al #ntell#"ence #s 'ase% on the assum$t#on that the $rocess of human thou"ht can 'e

mechan#*e%. The stu%y of mechan#calLor KformalKLreason#n" has a lon" h#story.

Ch#nese+ In%#an an% Greek $h#loso$hers all %evelo$e% structure% metho%s of formal

%e%uct#on #n the f#rst m#llenn#um 8CE. The#r #%eas &ere %evelo$e% over the centur#es 'y

$h#loso$hers such as ,r#stotle (&ho "ave a formal analys#s of the syllo"#sm!+ Eucl#%

(&hose Elements &as a mo%el of formal reason#n"!+ al-Fh&r#*mN (&ho %evelo$e% al"e'raan% "ave h#s name to Kal"or#thmK! an% Euro$ean scholast#c $h#loso$hers such as =#ll#am

of Ockham an% uns Scotus.

Ma)orcan $h#loso$her Ramon 2lull (/010/1/5! %evelo$e% several lo"#cal mach#nes

%evote% to the $ro%uct#on of kno&le%"e 'y lo"#cal meansH2lull %escr#'e% h#s mach#nes as

mechan#cal ent#t#es that coul% com'#ne 'as#c an% un%en#a'le truths 'y s#m$le lo"#cal

o$erat#ons+ $ro%uce% 'y the mach#ne 'y mechan#cal mean#n"s+ #n such &ays as to $ro%uce

all the $oss#'le kno&le%"e.2lull@s &ork ha% a "reat #nfluence on Gottfr#e% 2e#'n#*+ &ho

re%evelo$e% h#s #%eas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Mu_of_Zhou#Automatonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hero_of_Alexandriahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Jazarihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_von_Kempelenhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_imagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egypthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greecehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermes_Trismegistushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Philosophyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Philosophyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Philosophyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aristotlehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syllogismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euclidhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euclid's_Elementshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_ibn_Musa_al-Khwarizmihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algebrahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scholasticismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_of_Ockhamhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_of_Ockhamhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duns_Scotushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramon_Llullhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibnizhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Mu_of_Zhou#Automatonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hero_of_Alexandriahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Jazarihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_von_Kempelenhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_imagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egypthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greecehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermes_Trismegistushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Philosophyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Philosophyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Philosophyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aristotlehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syllogismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euclidhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euclid's_Elementshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_ibn_Musa_al-Khwarizmihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algebrahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scholasticismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_of_Ockhamhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_of_Ockhamhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duns_Scotushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramon_Llullhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibniz


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Gottfr#e% 2e#'n#*

&ho s$eculate% that human reason coul% 'e re%uce% to mechan#cal calculat#on.

In the /7th century+ 2e#'n#*+ Thomas ?o''es an% Ren escartes e$lore% the $oss#'#l#ty

that all rat#onal thou"ht coul% 'e ma%e as systemat#c as al"e'ra or "eometry.?o''es

famously &rote #n 2ev#athanB Kreason #s noth#n" 'ut reckon#n"K.2e#'n#* env#s#one% a

un#versal lan"ua"e of reason#n" (h#s character#st#caun#versal#st! &h#ch &oul% re%uce

ar"umentat#on to calculat#on+ so that Kthere &oul% 'e no more nee% of %#s$utat#on 'et&een

t&o $h#loso$hers than 'et&een t&o accountants. >or #t &oul% suff#ce to take the#r $enc#ls #n

han%+ %o&n to the#r slates+ an% to say each other (th a fr#en% as tness+ #f they l#ke%!B 2et

us calculate.K These $h#loso$hers ha% 'e"un to art#culate the $hys#cal sym'ol systemhy$othes#s that &oul% 'ecome the "u#%#n" fa#th of ,I research.

In the 0th century+ the stu%y of mathemat#cal lo"#c $rov#%e% the essent#al 'reakthrou"h

that ma%e art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence seem $laus#'le. The foun%at#ons ha% 'een set 'y such

&orks as 8oole@s The 2a&s of Thou"ht an% >re"e@s8e"r#ffsschr#ft. 8u#l%#n" on >re"e@s

system+ Russell an% =h#tehea% $resente% a formal treatment of the foun%at#ons of

mathemat#cs #n the#r master$#ece+ the Pr#nc#$#a Mathemat#cal #n //1. Ins$#re% 'y Russell@s

success+ av#% ?#l'ert challen"e% mathemat#c#ans of the /0s an% 1s to ans&er th#s

fun%amental 9uest#onB Kcan all of mathemat#cal reason#n" 'e formal#*e%K ?#s 9uest#on

&as ans&ere% 'y GQ%el@s #ncom$leteness $roof + Tur#n"@s mach#ne an% Church@s 2am'%a

calculus. The#r ans&er &as sur$r#s#n" #n t&o &ays.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibnizhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibnizhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Hobbeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ren%C3%A9_Descarteshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hobbeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_(book)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibnizhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Characteristica_universalishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physical_symbol_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_logichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Boolehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Laws_of_Thoughthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fregehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begriffsschrifthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fregehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_Russellhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_North_Whiteheadhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principia_Mathematicahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_Russellhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert's_programhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_G%C3%B6delhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del's_incompleteness_theoremshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_machinehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alonzo_Churchhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda_calculushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda_calculushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gottfried_Wilhelm_von_Leibniz.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibnizhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibnizhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Hobbeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ren%C3%A9_Descarteshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hobbeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_(book)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibnizhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Characteristica_universalishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physical_symbol_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_logichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Boolehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Laws_of_Thoughthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fregehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begriffsschrifthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fregehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_Russellhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_North_Whiteheadhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principia_Mathematicahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_Russellhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert's_programhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_G%C3%B6delhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del's_incompleteness_theoremshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_machinehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alonzo_Churchhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda_calculushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda_calculus


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The E


18/71

The f#rst mo%ern com$uters &ere the mass#ve co%e 'reak#n" mach#nes of the Secon% =orl% =ar

(such as 1+ E


19/71

Eam$les of &ork #n th#s ve#n #nclu%es ro'ots such as =. Grey =alter@s turtles an% the Johns

?o$k#ns 8east. These mach#nes %#% not use com$uters+ %#"#tal electron#cs or sym'ol#c reason#n"H

they &ere controlle% ent#rely 'y analo" c#rcu#try.

=alter P#tts an% =arren McCulloch analy*e% net&orks of #%eal#*e% art#f#c#al neurons an% sho&e%

ho& they m#"ht $erform s#m$le lo"#cal funct#ons. They &ere the f#rst to %escr#'e &hat later

researchers &oul% call a neural net&ork . One of the stu%ents #ns$#re% 'y P#tts an% McCulloch

&as a youn" Marv#n M#nsky+ then a 03-year ol% "ra%uate stu%ent. In /5/ (th ean E%mon%s!

he 'u#lt the f#rst neural net mach#ne+ the S


20/71

S7mboli$ rea%onin" and the Lo"i$ Theori%t

=hen access to %#"#tal com$uters 'ecame $oss#'le #n the m#%%le f#ft#es+ a fe& sc#ent#sts

#nst#nct#vely reco"n#*e% that a mach#ne that coul% man#$ulate num'ers coul% also man#$ulate

sym'ols an% that the man#$ulat#on of sym'ols coul% &ell 'e the essence of human thou"ht. Th#s

&as a ne& a$$roach to creat#n" th#nk#n" mach#nes.

In /55+ ,llen


21/71

an% learn#n" to s$eak En"l#sh. >e& at the t#me &oul% have 'el#eve% that such K#ntell#"entK

'ehav#or 'y mach#nes &as $oss#'le at all. Researchers e$resse% an #ntense o$t#m#sm #n $r#vate

an% #n $r#nt+ $re%#ct#n" that a fully #ntell#"ent mach#ne &oul% 'e 'u#lt #n less than 0 years.

Government a"enc#es l#ke ,RP, $oure% money #nto the ne& f#el%.

The @orD

There &ere many successful $ro"rams an% ne& %#rect#ons #n the late 5s an% /6s. ,mon" the

most #nfluent#al &ere theseB

Reasoning as search

Many early ,I $ro"rams use% the same 'as#c al"or#thm. To ach#eve some "oal (l#ke nn#n" a

"ame or $rov#n" a theorem!+ they $rocee%e% ste$ 'y ste$ to&ar%s #t ('y mak#n" a move or a

%e%uct#on! as #f search#n" throu"h a ma*e+ 'acktrack#n" &henever they reache% a %ea% en%. Th#s

$ara%#"m &as calle% Kreason#n" as searchK.

The $r#nc#$al %#ff#culty &as that+ for many $ro'lems+ the num'er of $oss#'le $aths throu"h the

Kma*eK &as s#m$ly astronom#cal (a s#tuat#on kno&n as a Kcom'#nator#al e$los#onK!.

Researchers &oul% re%uce the search s$ace 'y us#n" heur#st#cs or Krules of thum'K that &oul%

el#m#nate those $aths that &ere unl#kely to lea% to a solut#on.


22/71

,n eam$le of a semant#c net&ork

Natural language

,n #m$ortant "oal of ,I research #s to allo& com$uters to commun#cate #n natural lan"ua"es l#ke

En"l#sh. ,n early success &as an#el 8o'ro&@s $ro"ram STUE


23/71

s#m$l#f#e% mo%els l#ke fr#ct#onless $lanes or $erfectly r#"#% 'o%#es. Much of the research focuse%

on a K 'locks &orl%+K &h#ch cons#sts of colore% 'locks of var#ous sha$es an% s#*es arraye% on a

flat surface.

Th#s $ara%#"m le% to #nnovat#ve &ork #n mach#ne v#s#on 'y Geral% Sussman (&ho le% the team!+

,%olfo Gu*man+ av#% =alt* (&ho #nvente% Kconstra#nt $ro$a"at#onK!+ an% es$ec#ally Patr#ck

=#nston. ,t the same t#me+ M#nsky an% Pa$ert 'u#lt a ro'ot arm that coul% stack 'locks+ 'r#n"#n"

the 'locks &orl% to l#fe. The cro&n#n" ach#evement of the m#cro-&orl% $ro"ram &as Terry

=#no"ra%@sS?R2U. It coul% commun#cate #n or%#nary En"l#sh sentences+ $lan o$erat#ons an%

eecute them.

The o'timi%m

The f#rst "enerat#on of ,I researchers ma%e these $re%#ct#ons a'out the#r &orkB

• /5+ ?. ,. S#mon an% ,llen


24/71

The mone7

In June /61+ MIT rece#ve% a V0.0 m#ll#on "rant from the ne&ly create% ,%vance% ResearchPro)ects ,"ency (later kno&n as ,RP,!. The money &as use% to fun% $ro)ect M,C &h#ch

su'sume% the K,I Grou$K foun%e% 'y M#nsky an% McCarthy f#ve years earl#er. ,RP, cont#nue%

to $rov#%e three m#ll#on %ollars a year unt#l the 7s.,RP, ma%e s#m#lar "rants to


25/71

&ere+ #n some sense+ KtoysK. ,I researchers ha% 'e"un to run #nto several fun%amental l#m#ts that

coul% not 'e overcome #n the /7s. ,lthou"h some of these l#m#ts &oul% 'e con9uere% #n later

%eca%es+ others st#ll stym#e the f#el% to th#s %ay.

• Limited $om'uter 'o@erB There &as not enou"h memory or $rocess#n" s$ee% to

accom$l#sh anyth#n" truly useful. >or eam$le+ Ross u#ll#an@s successful &ork on

natural lan"ua"e &as %emonstrate% th a voca'ulary of only t&enty &or%s+ 'ecause that

&as all that &oul% f#t #n memory.?ansMoravec ar"ue% #n /76 that com$uters &ere st#ll

m#ll#ons of t#mes too &eak to eh#'#t #ntell#"ence. ?e su""este% an analo"yB art#f#c#al

#ntell#"ence re9u#res com$uter $o&er #n the same &ay that a#rcraft re9u#re horse$o&er .

8elo& a certa#n threshol%+ #t@s #m$oss#'le+ 'ut+ as $o&er #ncreases+ eventually #t coul%

'ecome easy. =#th re"ar% to com$uter v#s#on+ Moravec est#mate% that s#m$ly match#n"

the e%"e an% mot#on %etect#on ca$a'#l#t#es of human ret#na #n real t#me &oul% re9u#re a

"eneral-$ur$ose com$uter ca$a'le of / o$erat#onsDsecon% (/ MIPS!. ,s of 0//+

$ract#cal com$uter v#s#on a$$l#cat#ons re9u#re /+ to /++ MIPS. 8y

com$ar#son+ the fastest su$ercom$uter #n /76+ Cray-/ (reta#l#n" at V5 m#ll#on to V

m#ll#on!+ &as only ca$a'le of aroun% to /1 MIPS+ an% a ty$#cal %eskto$ com$uter at

the t#me ach#eve% less than / MIPS.

• Intra$tabilit7 and the $ombinatorial e'lo%ion. In /70 R#char% Far$

('u#l%#n" on Ste$hen Cook@s /7/ theorem! sho&e% there are many $ro'lems that can

$ro'a'ly only 'e solve% #n e$onent#al t#me (#n the s#*e of the #n$uts!. >#n%#n" o$t#mal

solut#ons to these $ro'lems re9u#res un#ma"#na'le amounts of com$uter t#me ece$t

&hen the $ro'lems are tr#v#al. Th#s almost certa#nly meant that many of the KtoyK

solut#ons use% 'y ,I &oul% $ro'a'ly never scale u$ #nto useful systems.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ross_Quillian&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravechttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horsepowerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_lawhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cray-1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intractability_(complexity)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combinatorial_explosionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Karphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Cookhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook's_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karp's_21_NP-complete_problemshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_timehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ross_Quillian&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravechttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horsepowerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_lawhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cray-1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intractability_(complexity)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combinatorial_explosionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Karphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Cookhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook's_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karp's_21_NP-complete_problemshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_time


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• Common%en%e Dno@led"e and rea%onin". Many #m$ortant art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence

a$$l#cat#ons l#ke v#s#on or natural lan"ua"e re9u#re s#m$ly enormous amounts of

#nformat#on a'out the &orl%B the $ro"ram nee%s to have some #%ea of &hat #t m#"ht 'e

look#n" at or &hat #t #s talk#n" a'out. Th#s re9u#res that the $ro"ram kno& most of the

same th#n"s a'out the &orl% that a ch#l% %oes. Researchers soon %#scovere% that th#s &as

a truly vast amount of #nformat#on.


27/71

%#sa$$o#nte% th researchers &ork#n" on the S$eech Un%erstan%#n" Research $ro"ram at

CMU an% cancele% an annual "rant of three m#ll#on %ollars. 8y /73+ fun%#n" for ,I

$ro)ects &as har% to f#n%.

?ans Moravec 'lame% the cr#s#s on the unreal#st#c $re%#ct#ons of h#s collea"ues. KMany

researchers &ere cau"ht u$ #n a &e' of #ncreas#n" ea""erat#on.K ?o&ever+ there &as

another #ssueB s#nce the $assa"e of the Mansf#el% ,men%ment #n /6+ ,RP, ha% 'een

un%er #ncreas#n" $ressure to fun% Km#ss#on-or#ente% %#rect research+ rather than 'as#c

un%#recte% researchK. >un%#n" for the creat#ve+ free&heel#n" e$lorat#on that ha% "one on

#n the 6s &oul% not come from ,RP,. Instea%+ the money &as %#recte% at s$ec#f#c

$ro)ects th clear o')ect#ves+ such as autonomous tanks an% 'attle mana"ement systems.

Critiue% from a$ro%% $am'u%

Several $h#loso$hers ha% stron" o')ect#ons to the cla#ms 'e#n" ma%e 'y ,I researchers. One of

the earl#est &as John 2ucas+ &ho ar"ue% that GQ%els #ncom$leteness sho&e% that a formal

system (such as a com$uter $ro"ram! coul% never see the truth of certa#n statements+ &h#le a

human 'e#n" coul%. ?u'ert r#%#cule% the 'roken $rom#ses of the 6s an% cr#t#9ue% the

assum$t#ons of ,I+ ar"u#n" that human reason#n" actually #nvolve% very l#ttle Ksym'ol

$rocess#n"K an% a "reat %eal of em'o%#e%+ #nst#nct#ve+ unconsc#ous Kho&. John@s Ch#nese Room

ar"ument+ $resente% #n /+ attem$te% to sho& that a $ro"ram coul% not 'e sa#% to Kun%erstan%K

the sym'ols that #t uses (a 9ual#ty calle% K#ntent#onal#tyK!. If the sym'ols have no mean#n" for the

mach#ne+ Searle ar"ue%+ then the mach#ne can not 'e %escr#'e% as Kth#nk#n"K.

These cr#t#9ues &ere not taken ser#ously 'y ,I researchers+ often 'ecause they seeme% so far off

the $o#nt. Pro'lems l#ke #ntracta'#l#ty an% commonsense kno&le%"e seeme% much more

#mme%#ate an% ser#ous. It &as unclear &hat %#fference Kkno& ho&K or K#ntent#onal#tyK ma%e to an

actual com$uter $ro"ram. M#nsky sa#% of reyfus an% Searle Kthey m#sun%erstan%+ an% shoul% 'e

#"nore%.K reyfus+ &ho tau"ht at MIT+ &as "#ven a col% shoul%erB he later sa#% that ,I

researchers K%are% not 'e seen hav#n" lunch th me.KJose$h=e#*en'aum+ the author of E2I,+

felt h#s collea"ues@ treatment of reyfus &as un$rofess#onal an% ch#l%#sh. ,lthou"h he &as an

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_recognitionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnegie_Mellon_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravechttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansfield_Amendmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lucas_(philosopher)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formal_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formal_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_cognitionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instincthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Roomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intentionalityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intractability_(complexity)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonsense_reasoninghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ready-to-handhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intentionalityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minskyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIThttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Weizenbaumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Dreyfushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_recognitionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnegie_Mellon_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravechttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansfield_Amendmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lucas_(philosopher)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formal_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formal_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_cognitionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instincthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Roomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intentionalityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intractability_(complexity)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonsense_reasoninghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ready-to-handhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intentionalityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minskyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIThttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Weizenbaumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Dreyfus


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outs$oken cr#t#c of reyfus@ $os#t#ons+ he K%el#'erately ma%e #t $la#n that the#rs &as not the &ay

to treat a human 'e#n".K

=e#*en'aum 'e"an to have ser#ous eth#cal %ou'ts a'out ,I &hen Fenneth Col'y &rote

OCTOR + a chatter'o thera$#st. =e#*en'aum &as %#stur'e% that Col'y sa& h#s m#n%less

$ro"ram as a ser#ous thera$eut#c tool. , feu% 'e"an+ an% the s#tuat#on &as not hel$e% &hen Col'y

%#% not cre%#t =e#*en'aum for h#s contr#'ut#on to the $ro"ram. In /76+ =e#*en'aum $u'l#she%

Com$uter Po&er an% ?uman Reason &h#ch ar"ue% that the m#suse of art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence has

the $otent#al to %evalue human l#fe.

Per$e'tron% and the darD a"e of $onne$tioni%m

, $erce$trons &as a form of neural net&ork #ntro%uce% #n /5 'y >rank Rosen'latt+ &ho ha%

'een a schoolmate of Marv#n M#nsky at the 8ron ?#"h School of Sc#ence. 2#ke most ,I

researchers+ he &as o$t#m#st#c a'out the#r $o&er+ $re%#ct#n" that K$erce$trons may eventually 'e

a'le to learn+ make %ec#s#ons+ an% translate lan"ua"es.K ,n act#ve research $ro"ram #nto the

$ara%#"m &as carr#e% out throu"hout the 6s 'ut came to a su%%en halt th the $u'l#cat#on of

M#nsky an% Pa$ert@s /6 'ook Perce$trons. It su""este% that there &ere severe l#m#tat#ons to

&hat $erce$trons coul% %o an% that >rank Rosen'latt@s $re%#ct#ons ha% 'een "rossly ea""erate%.

The effect of the 'ook &as %evastat#n"B v#rtually no research at all &as %one #n connect#on#sm for / years. Eventually+ a ne& "enerat#on of researchers &oul% rev#ve the f#el% an% thereafter #t

&oul% 'ecome a v#tal an% useful $art of art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence. Rosen'latt &oul% not l#ve to see

th#s+ as he %#e% #n a 'oat#n" acc#%ent shortly after the 'ook &as $u'l#she%.

The hi%tor7 of artifi$ial intelli"en$e &AI) 'e"an #n ant#9u#ty+ th myths+ stor#es an% rumors of

art#f#c#al 'e#n"s en%o&e% th #ntell#"ence or consc#ousness 'y master craftsmenH as Pamela

McCor%uck &r#tes+ ,I 'e"an th Kan anc#ent sh to for"e the "o%s.K

The see%s of mo%ern ,I &ere $lante% 'y class#cal $h#loso$hers &ho attem$te% to %escr#'e the

$rocess of human th#nk#n" as the mechan#cal man#$ulat#on of sym'ols. Th#s &ork culm#nate% #n

the #nvent#on of the $ro"ramma'le %#"#tal com$uter #n the /3s+ a mach#ne 'ase% on the

a'stract essence of mathemat#cal reason#n". Th#s %ev#ce an% the #%eas 'eh#n% #t #ns$#re% a

han%ful of sc#ent#sts to 'e"#n ser#ously %#scuss#n" the $oss#'#l#ty of 'u#l%#n" an electron#c 'ra#n.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Colbyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatterbothttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Weizenbaumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_Power_and_Human_Reasonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptronhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neural_networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenblatthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minskyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronx_High_School_of_Sciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minskyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Paperthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptrons_(book)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenblatthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connectionismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenblatthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_historyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_McCorduckhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_McCorduckhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Colbyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatterbothttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Weizenbaumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_Power_and_Human_Reasonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptronhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neural_networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenblatthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minskyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronx_High_School_of_Sciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minskyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Paperthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptrons_(book)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenblatthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connectionismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenblatthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_historyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_McCorduckhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_McCorduckhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer


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The f#el% of ,I research &as foun%e% at a conference on the cam$us of artmouth Colle"e #n the

summer of /56. Those &ho atten%e% &oul% 'ecome the lea%ers of ,I research for %eca%es.

Many of them $re%#cte% that a mach#ne as #ntell#"ent as a human 'e#n" &oul% e#st #n no more

than a "enerat#on an% they &ere "#ven m#ll#ons of %ollars to make th#s v#s#on come true.

Eventually #t 'ecame o'v#ous that they ha% "rossly un%erest#mate% the %#ff#culty of the $ro)ect.

In /71+ #n res$onse to the cr#t#c#sm of James 2#"ht h#ll an% on"o#n" $ressure from con"ress+

the U.S. an% Governments sto$$e% fun%#n" un%#recte% research #nto art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence. Seven

years later+ a v#s#onary #n#t#at#ve 'y the Ja$anese Government #ns$#re% "overnments an% #n%ustry

to $rov#%e ,I th '#ll#ons of %ollars+ 'ut 'y the late s the #nvestors 'ecame %#s#llus#one% an%

th%re& fun%#n" a"a#n. Th#s cycle of 'oom an% 'ust+ of K,I ntersK an% summers+ cont#nues to

haunt the f#el%. Un%aunte%+ there are those &ho make etraor%#nary $re%#ct#ons even no&.

Pro"ress #n ,I has cont#nue%+ %es$#te the r#se an% fall of #ts re$utat#on #n the eyes of "overnment

'ureaucrats an% venture ca$#tal#sts. Pro'lems that ha% 'e"un to seem #m$oss#'le #n /7 have

'een solve% an% the solut#ons are no& use% #n successful commerc#al $ro%ucts. ?o&ever+ no

mach#ne has 'een 'u#lt th a human level of #ntell#"ence+ contrary to the o$t#m#st#c $re%#ct#ons

of the f#rst "enerat#on of ,I researchers. K=e can only see a short %#stance ahea%+K a%m#tte% ,lan

Tur#n"+ #n a famous /5 $a$er.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dartmouth_Collegehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Lighthillhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Governmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winterhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dartmouth_Collegehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Lighthillhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPAhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Governmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winterhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turing


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C*APTER5 =

RESEARC*

(ET*O!OLOG+

RESEARC* (ET*O!OLOG+0

The $rocess use% to collect #nformat#on an% %ata for the $ur$ose of mak#n" 'us#ness

%ec#s#on.

The metho%olo"y may #nclu%e $u'l#cat#on research+ #nterv#e&s+ surveys an% other research

techn#9ues an% coul% #nclu%e 'oth $resent an% h#stor#cal #nformat#on.

http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/methodology.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/publication.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/research.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/interview.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/survey.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/methodology.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/publication.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/research.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/interview.htmlhttp://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/survey.html


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Research Metho%olo"y #s a &ay to f#n% out the result of a "#ven $ro'lem on a s$ec#f#c

matter or $ro'lem that #s also referre% as research $ro'lem. In Metho%olo"y+ researcher

uses %#fferent cr#ter#a for solv#n"Dsearch#n" the "#ven research $ro'lem. #fferent sources

use %#fferent ty$e of metho%s for solv#n" the $ro'lem. If &e th#nk a'out the &or%

“(ethodolo"7”+ #t #s the &ay of search#n" or solv#n" the research $ro'lem.

In Research Metho%olo"y+ researcher al&ays tr#es to search the "#ven 9uest#on

systemat#cally #n our o&n &ay an% f#n% out all the ans&ers t#ll conclus#on. If research %oes

not &ork systemat#cally on $ro'lem+ there &oul% 'e less $oss#'#l#ty to f#n% out the f#nal

result. >or f#n%#n" or e$lor#n" research 9uest#ons+ a researcher faces lot of $ro'lems that

can 'e effect#vely resolve% th us#n" correct research metho%olo"y.

O#JECTI-E OF T*E ST,!+

To learn a'out ,I Com$onents an% ,$$l#cat#on.

To kno& &hat the var#ous areas are &here the user can #nterface.

To "ather kno&le%"e a'out the com$onents of ,I.

To kno& &hat are the a%vanta"es an% %#sa%vanta"es of ,I.

S$o'e of the %tud7

Th#s stu%y com$r#se of #n-%e$th covera"e of Emer"ence of ,I+ evolut#on of ,I thou"h

var#ous vers#ons.,I use% #n var#ous areas. ,I use% #n hos$#tals+ #nst#tut#ons. , l#ttle '#t of

vers#ons have 'een covere%. ?o&ever+ th#s stu%y #s l#m#te% to the etent that #t #s only relate%

to the stu%y of emer"ence of ,I. Th#s stu%y %oes not focus on the %e s$ectrum of ,I &h#ch

#t has on our soc#al l#fe an% the 'us#nesses. There #s no %ou't #n say#n" that technolo"y #s

chan"#n" our v#e& of l#fe 'ut s#%e 'y s#%e #t has some s#%e effects or &e can say 'a% effects

es$ec#ally on our ch#l%ren an% soc#ety an% #t cant 'e ne"lecte%.

!ATA COLLECTION


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Se$ondar7 data+ #s %ata collecte% 'y someone other than the user. Common

sources of secon%ary %ata for soc#al sc#ence #nclu%e censuses+ or"an#*at#onal recor%s an% %ata

collecte% throu"h 9ual#tat#ve metho%olo"#es or research. Pr#mary+ 'y contrast+ are collecte% 'y

the #nvest#"ator con%uct#n" the research.

Secon%ary %ata analys#s saves t#me that &oul% otherse 'e s$ent collect#n" %ata an%+

$art#cularly #n the case of 9uant#tat#ve %ata+ $rov#%es lar"er an% h#"her-9ual#ty %ata'ases that

&oul% 'e unfeas#'le for any #n%#v#%ual researcher to collect on the#r o&n. In a%%#t#on+ analysts of

soc#al an% econom#c chan"e cons#%er secon%ary %ata essent#al+ s#nce #t #s #m$oss#'le to con%uct a

ne& survey that can a%e9uately ca$ture $ast chan"e an%Dor %evelo$ments.

SO,RCES OF SECON!AR+ !ATA

,s #s the case #n $r#mary research+ secon%ary %ata can 'e o'ta#ne% from %#fferent research

stran%sB

Pr#or %ocumentat#on such as Census+ hous#n"+ soc#al secur#ty as &ell as electoral stat#st#cs an%

other relate% %ata'ases. Internet searches+ l#'rar#esH $ro"ress re$ortsH etc. It %oes not #nclu%e

#nterv#e&s as th#s collect $r#mary %ata for analys#s to "enerate #nformat#on.

, clear 'enef#t of us#n" secon%ary %ata #s that much of the 'ack"roun% &ork nee%e% has alrea%y

'een carr#e% out+ for eam$leB l#terature rev#e&s+ case stu%#es m#"ht have 'een carr#e% out+

$u'l#she% tets an% stat#st#cs coul% have 'een alrea%y use% else&here+ me%#a $romot#on an%

$ersonal contacts have also 'een ut#l#*e%.

Th#s &ealth of 'ack"roun% &ork means that secon%ary %ata "enerally have a $re-esta'l#she%

%e"ree of val#%#ty an% rel#a'#l#ty &h#ch nee% not 'e re-eam#ne% 'y the researcher &ho #s re-

us#n" such %ata.

>urthermore+ secon%ary %ata can also 'e hel$ful #n the research %es#"n of su'se9uent $r#mary

research an% can $rov#%e a 'asel#ne th &h#ch the collecte% $r#mary %ata results can 'e

com$are% to. Therefore+ #t #s al&ays se to 'e"#n any research act#v#ty th a rev#e& of the

secon%ary %ata.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_sciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_sciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_datahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Databasehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_researchhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literature_reviewhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_studyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descriptive_statisticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Validityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_designhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_sciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_datahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Databasehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_researchhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literature_reviewhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_studyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descriptive_statisticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Validityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_design


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Ad9anta"e% of Se$ondar7 data

/. It #s econom#cal. It saves efforts an% e$enses.

0. It #s t#me sav#n".

1. It hel$s to make $r#mary %ata collect#on more s$ec#f#c s#nce th the hel$ of

secon%ary %ata+ &e are a'le to make out &hat are the "a$s an% %ef#c#enc#es an%

&hat a%%#t#onal #nformat#on nee%s to 'e collecte%.

3. It hel$s to #m$rove the un%erstan%#n" of the $ro'lem.

5. It $rov#%es a 'as#s for com$ar#son for the %ata that #s collecte% 'y the researcher.

!i%ad9anta"e% of Se$ondar7 !ata

/. Secon%ary %ata #s someth#n" that sel%om f#ts #n the frame&ork of the market#n"

research factors. Reasons for #ts non-f#tt#n" areB-

a. Un#t of secon%ary %ata collect#on-Su$$ose you &ant #nformat#on on

%#s$osa'le #ncome+ 'ut the %ata #s ava#la'le on "ross #ncome. The

#nformat#on may not 'e same as &e re9u#re.

0. ,ccuracy of secon%ary %ata #s not kno&n.

1. ata may 'e out%ate%.

2IMIT,TIO< O> T?E STU

Th#s stu%y #s not so vast 'ecause of lack of t#me.

In th#s stu%y the %ata #s not real 'ecause #t #s collecte% from the secon%ary sources.

Th#s re$ort #s relate% to only emer"ence of ,rt#f#c#al Intell#"ence.

It #s one s#%e% stu%y only &h#ch #nvolves 'as#cally ho& ,I emer"e an% %evelo$e%.

Th#s stu%y %oes not focus on the #m$act of ,I on the soc#ety.


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35/71

C*APTER <

!ATA ANAL+SIS

AN!

INTERPRETATION

Artifi$ial intelli"en$e (AI! #s the #ntell#"ence eh#'#te% 'y mach#nes or soft&are. It #s an

aca%em#c f#el% of stu%y &h#ch stu%#es the "oal of creat#n" #ntell#"ence. Ma)or ,I researchers an%

tet'ooks %ef#ne th#s f#el% as Kthe stu%y an% %es#"n of #ntell#"ent a"ents+ &here an #ntell#"ent

a"ent #s a system that $erce#ves #ts env#ronment an% takes act#ons that ma#m#*e #ts chances of

success. John+ &ho co#ne% the term #n /55+ %ef#nes #t as Kthe sc#ence an% en"#neer#n" of mak#n"

#ntell#"ent mach#nesK.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Field_of_studyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_agenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_agenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Field_of_studyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_agenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_agent


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,I research #s h#"hly techn#cal an% s$ec#al#*e%+ an% #s %ee$ly %#v#%e% #nto su'f#el%s that often fa#l

to commun#cate th each other. Some of the %#v#s#on #s %ue to soc#al an% cultural factorsB

su'f#el%s have "ro&n u$ aroun% $art#cular #nst#tut#ons an% the &ork of #n%#v#%ual researchers. ,I

research #s also %#v#%e% 'y several techn#cal #ssues. Some su'f#el%s focus on the solut#on of

s$ec#f#c $ro'lems. Others focus on one of several $oss#'le a$$roaches or on the use of a

$art#cular tool or to&ar%s the accom$l#shment of $art#cular a$$l#cat#ons.

The central $ro'lems (or "oals! of ,I research #nclu%e reason#n"+ kno&le%"e+ $lann#n"+ learn#n"+

natural lan"ua"e $rocess#n" (commun#cat#on!+ $erce$t#on an% the a'#l#ty to move an% man#$ulate

o')ects. General #s st#ll amon" the f#el%@s lon"-term "oals. Currently $o$ular a$$roaches #nclu%e

stat#st#cal metho%s+ com$utat#onal #ntell#"ence an% tra%#t#onal sym'ol#c ,I. There are a lar"e

num'er of tools use% #n ,I+ #nclu%#n" vers#ons of search an% mathemat#cal o$t#m#*at#on+ lo"#c+metho%s 'ase% on $ro'a'#l#ty an% econom#cs+ an% many others. The ,I f#el% #s #nter%#sc#$l#nary+

#n &h#ch a num'er of sc#ences an% $rofess#ons conver"e+ #nclu%#n" com$uter sc#ence+

mathemat#cs+ $sycholo"y+ l#n"u#st#cs+ $h#loso$hy an% neurosc#ence+ as &ell as other s$ec#al#*e%

f#el%s such as art#f#c#al $sycholo"y.

The f#el% &as foun%e% on the cla#m that a central $ro$erty of humans+ #ntell#"enceLthe sa$#ence

of ?omo sa$#ens LKcan 'e so $rec#sely %escr#'e% that a mach#ne can 'e ma%e to s#mulate #t.K

Th#s ra#ses $h#loso$h#cal #ssues a'out the nature of the m#n% an% the eth#cs of creat#n" art#f#c#al

'e#n"s en%o&e% th human-l#ke #ntell#"ence+ #ssues &h#ch have 'een a%%resse% 'y myth+ f#ct#on

an% $h#loso$hy s#nce ant#9u#ty. ,rt#f#c#al #ntell#"ence has 'een the su')ect of tremen%ous

o$t#m#sm 'ut has also suffere% stunn#n" set'acks. To%ay #t has 'ecome an essent#al $art of the

technolo"y #n%ustry+ $rov#%#n" the heavy l#ft#n" for many of the most challen"#n" $ro'lems #n

com$uter sc#ence.

Fno&le%"e-'ase% #nterfaces to e#st#n" stat#st#cal soft&are are one &ay of a$$ly#n" art#f#c#al

#ntell#"ence metho%s #n %ata analys#s an% #nter$retat#on. In th#s $a$er &e %#scuss our e$er#ences

from the #m$lementat#ons of kno&le%"e-'ase% systems for t#me ser#es analyses+ #n $art#cular for

el#m#nat#n" seasonal var#at#ons #n stat#st#cal stu%#es of #n%ustry an% tra%e+ an% for mult#var#ate

ta'ular analys#s. =e further %#scuss the $ro'lems of real#*#n" kno&le%"e-'ase% systems #n a

http://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Goalshttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Approacheshttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Toolshttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Applicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reasoninghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledgehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_planning_and_schedulinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learninghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptionhttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Statisticalhttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Sub-symbolichttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Symbolichttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Search_and_optimizationhttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Logichttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Probabilistic_methods_for_uncertain_reasoninghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_sciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguisticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neurosciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_psychologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sapiencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_sapienshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mindhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_AI#AI_in_myth.2C_fiction_and_speculationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_in_fictionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_of_AIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winterhttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Goalshttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Approacheshttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Toolshttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Applicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reasoninghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledgehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_planning_and_schedulinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learninghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptionhttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Statisticalhttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Sub-symbolichttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Symbolichttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Search_and_optimizationhttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Logichttp://var/www/apps/Documents%20and%20Settings/c/Desktop/juhi%20arora.htm#Probabilistic_methods_for_uncertain_reasoninghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_sciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguisticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neurosciencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_psychologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sapiencehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_sapienshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mindhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_AI#AI_in_myth.2C_fiction_and_speculationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_in_fictionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_of_AIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter


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$ro%uct#on env#ronment an% $resent an #nte"rate% conce$tual mo%el for kno&le%"e-'ase% %ata

analys#s an% #nter$retat#on.

Current $ract#ce for the mana"ement an% etract#on of mean#n"ful #nformat#on from ava#la'le

%ata+ to #nform un%erstan%#n" of &ater su$$ly system $erformance+ #s l#m#te%+ t#me consum#n"

an% of #na%e9uate accuracy. Th#s #s $r#mar#ly %ue to rel#ance on human %ata analys#s an%

#nter$retat#on+ &h#ch #s unfeas#'le for the volume an% com$le#ty of %ata #nvolve%. >urther+ #t #s

often only $ract#cal an% econom#cally )ust#f#a'le to #nst#"ate such analys#s #n a react#ve manner to

#m$rove $ro'lem %ef#n#t#on such as the %eterm#nat#on of the ma"n#tu%e of a 'urst once #t has

'een reco"n#*e% throu"h a 'reach of serv#cea'#l#ty l#m#ts. It #s not cost effect#ve to rely on human

%ata analys#s an% #nter$retat#on an% the #nherent #neff#c#ency contr#'utes to lo&ere% re"ulatory

com$l#ance an% stan%ar%s of serv#ce. , ne& automate% a$$roach that a$$l#es ,rt#f#c#al

matter of learn#n" 'y eam$le rather than $ro"ramm#n". Th#s #s es$ec#ally attract#ve for %oma#ns

&here an un%erstan%#n" of the $ro'lem to 'e solve% #s l#m#te%+ 'ut &here tra#n#n" %ata #s rea%#ly

ava#la'le+ for eam$le+ flo& an% $ressure t#me ser#es from a &ater su$$ly system. The system

%evelo$e% can 'e a$$l#e% to h#stor#c flo& t#me ser#es %ata to construct a "rey 'o mo%el for the

%etect#on an% class#f#cat#on of 'urst ma#ns. In#t#al ,


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Art#f#c#al Intell#"ence #s a 'ranch of Sc#ence &h#ch %eals th hel$#n" mach#nes f#n% solut#ons to

com$le $ro'lems #n a more human-l#ke fash#on. Th#s "enerally #nvolves 'orron"

character#st#cs from human #ntell#"ence+ an% a$$ly#n" them as al"or#thms #n a com$uter fr#en%ly

&ay. , more or less fle#'le or eff#c#ent a$$roach can 'e taken %e$en%#n" on the re9u#rements

esta'l#she%+ &h#ch #nfluences ho& art#f#c#al the #ntell#"ent 'ehav#or a$$ears.

AI #s "enerally assoc#ate% th Com$uter Sc#ence+ 'ut #t has many #m$ortant l#nks th other

f#el%s such as Maths+ Psycholo"y+ Co"n#t#on+ 8#olo"y an% Ph#loso$hy+ amon" many others. Our

a'#l#ty to com'#ne kno&le%"e from all these f#el%s ll ult#mately 'enef#t our $ro"ress #n the

9uest of creat#n" an #ntell#"ent art#f#c#al 'e#n".

The Ad9anta"e% for Artifi$ial Intelli"en$e &AI)

• Jobs – %e$en%#n" on the level an% ty$e of #ntell#"ence these mach#nes rece#ve #n the

future+ #t ll o'v#ously have an effect on the ty$e of &ork they can %o+ an% ho& &ell

they can %o #t (they can 'ecome more eff#c#ent!. ,s the level of ,I #ncreases so ll the#r


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com$etency to %eal th %#ff#cult+ com$le even %an"erous tasks that are currently %one

'y humans+ a form of a$$l#e% art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence.

• They don’t stop – as they are mach#nes there #s no nee% for slee$+ they %ont "et #ll + there

#s no nee% for 'reaks or >ace'ook+ they are a'le to "o+ "o+ "oA There o'v#ously may 'e

the nee% for them to 'e char"e% or refuele%+ ho&ever the $o#nt #s+ they are %ef#n#tely

"o#n" to "et a lot more &ork %one than &e can. Take the >#nance #n%ustry for eam$le+

there are constant stor#es ar#s#n" of art#f#c#al #ntell#"ence #n f#nance an% that stock tra%ers

are soon to 'e a th#n" of the $ast.

• No risk of harm – &hen &e are e$lor#n" ne& un%#scovere% lan% or even $lanets+ &hen a

mach#ne "ets 'roken or %#es+ there #s no harm %one as they %ont feel+ they %ont have

emot#ons. =here as "o#n" on the same ty$e of e$e%#t#ons a mach#ne %oes+ may s#m$ly

not 'e $oss#'le or they are e$os#n" themselves to h#"h r#sk s#tuat#ons.

• Act as aids – they can act as 03D7 a#%s to ch#l%ren th %#sa'#l#t#es or the el%erly+ they

coul% even act as a source for learn#n" an% teach#n". They coul% even 'e $art of secur#ty

alert#n" you to $oss#'le f#res that you are #n threat of+ or fen%#n" off cr#me.

• Their function is almost limitless – as the mach#nes ll 'e a'le to %o everyth#n" ('ut

)ust 'etter! essent#ally the#r use+ $retty much %oesnt have any 'oun%ar#es. They ll

make fe&er m#stakes+ they are emot#onless+ they are more eff#c#ent+ they are 'as#cally

"#v#n" us more free t#me to %o as &e $lease.

The !i%ad9anta"e% for Artifi$ial Intelli"en$e &AI)

• !er reliance on A" – as you may have seen #n many f#lms such as The Matrix+ #Ro'ot or

even k#%s f#lms such as =,22.E+ #f &e rely on mach#nes to %o almost everyth#n" for us

&e 'ecome very %e$en%ent+ so much so they have the $otent#al to ru#n our l#ves #f

someth#n" &ere to "o &ron". ,lthou"h the f#lms are essent#ally )ust f#ct#on+ #t &oul%nt

'e too smart not to have some sort of 'acku$ $lan to $otent#al #ssues on our $art.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000P0J0AQ/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=thepros0e-20&linkCode=as2&camp=217145&creative=399373&creativeASIN=B000P0J0AQhttp://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000P0J0AQ/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=thepros0e-20&linkCode=as2&camp=217145&creative=399373&creativeASIN=B000P0J0AQhttp://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000P0J0AQ/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=thepros0e-20&linkCode=as2&camp=217145&creative=399373&creativeASIN=B000P0J0AQ


40/71

• #uman $eel – as they are are mach#nes they o'v#ously cant $rov#%e you th that

Xhuman touch an% 9ual#ty+ the feel#n" of a to"etherness an% emot#onal un%erstan%#n"+

that mach#nes ll lack the a'#l#ty to sym$ath#es an% em$ath#*e th your s#tuat#ons+ an%

may act #rrat#onally as a conse9uence.

• "nferior – as mach#nes ll 'e a'le to $erform almost every task 'etter than us #n

$ract#cally all res$ects+ they ll take u$ many of our )o's+ &h#ch ll then result #n

masses of $eo$le &ho are then )o'less an% as a result feel essent#ally useless. Th#s coul%

then lea% us to #ssues of mental #llness an% o'es#ty $ro'lems etc.

• Misuse there #s no %ou't that th#s level of technolo"y #n the &ron" han%s can cause

mass %estruct#on+ &here ro'ot arm#es coul% 'e forme%+ or they coul% $erha$s malfunct#on

or 'e corru$te% &h#ch then &e coul% 'e fac#n" a s#m#lar scene to that of term#nator ( hey+

you never kno&!.

• %thically &rong' – Peo$le say that the "#ft of #ntu#t#on an% #ntell#"ence &as Go%s "#ft to

mank#n%+ an% so to re$l#cate that &oul% 'e then to k#n% of X$lay Go%. Therefore not r#"ht

to even attem$t to clone our #ntell#"ence.

INTRO!,CTION OF RO#OTICS

Ro'ot#cs research often focuses on #ncreas#n" ro'ot ca$a'#l#ty. If en% users %o not $erce#ve

these #ncreases+ ho&ever+ user acce$tance may not #m$rove. In th#s &ork+ &e e$lore the #%ea of

$erce#ve% ca$a'#l#ty an% ho& #t relates to true ca$a'#l#ty+ %#fferent#at#n" 'et&een $hys#cal an%

soc#al ca$a'#l#t#es. =e $resent a frame&ork that outl#nes the#r $otent#al relat#onsh#$s+ alon" th

t&o user stu%#es+ on ro'ot s$ee% an% s$eech+ e$lor#n" these relat#onsh#$s. Our stu%#es #%ent#fy

t&o $oss#'le conse9uences of the %#sconnect 'et&een the true an% $erce#ve% ca$a'#l#tyB (/!


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un%er-$erce$t#onB true #m$rovements #n ca$a'#l#ty may not lea% to $erce#ve% #m$rovements an%

(0! over-$erce$t#onB true #m$rovements #n ca$a'#l#ty may lea% to a%%#t#onal $erce#ve%

#m$rovements that %o not actually e#st.

Ro'ot c#sts often focus on #ncreas#n" ro'ot ca$a'#l#tyB &e make ro'ots faster+ hel$ them

$erce#ve the &orl% an% ena'le them to #nteract th $eo$le. The "oal #s to make ro'ots a $art of

every%ay l#fe+ th $ur$oses ran"#n" from enterta#nment to ass#st#n" th te%#ous or %an"erous

tasks

,n #nte"ral $art of mak#n" th#s "oal a real#ty #s acce$tance+ &h#ch #s lar"ely affecte% 'y users

$erce$t#ons. Therefore+ #ncreas#n" ro'ot ca$a'#l#ty %oes not necessar#ly lea% to #ncrease%

acce$tance s#nce #t #s actually the users $erce$t#on of ca$a'#l#ty L the ro'ots $erce#ve%

ca$a'#l#ty L that %eterm#nes acce$tance.

>or eam$le+ #ma"#ne a ro'ot %es#"ne% to clean the home. If a user $erce#ves the ro'ots

ca$a'#l#ty to 'e lack#n"+ they may 'e reluctant to allo& #t to han%le the#r $ossess#ons. On the

other han%+ #f the user overest#mates the ro'ots ca$a'#l#ty+ th#s can lea% to unmet e$ectat#ons

an% %#sa$$o#ntment.

In th#s $a$er+ &e focus on the #%ea of $erce#ve% ca$a'#l#ty+ an% the %#sconnect 'et&een #t an%

the ro'ots true ca$a'#l#ty. =e start 'y con)ectur#n" a frame&ork that l#nks true an% $er-ce#ve%

ca$a'#l#ty an% then outl#ne the#r $oss#'le relat#onsh#$s. =#th#n th#s frame&ork+ &e #nvest#"ate the

effects of t&o #m$ortant ro'ot ca$a'#l#t#es+ s$ee% an% s$eech+ on $erce#ve% ca$a'#l#ty v#a t&o

user stu%#es.


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>rame&ork for Perce#ve% Ca$a'#l#ty

Pr#or &ork #n anthro$omor$h#sm+ mental mo%els+ an% sense mak#n" sho&s there #s often a

%#sconnect 'et&een users $erce$t#ons an% a ro'ots true ca$a'#l#ty. Th#s occurs lar"ely 'ecause

$eo$le are unfam#l#ar an% lack e$er#ence th ro'ots. ?ence+ the#r kno&le%"e #s often 'ase% on

$o$ular culture &h#ch %e$#cts a %e var#ety of ro'ots th a mult#tu%e of ca$a'#l#t#es.

In or%er to #nvest#"ate th#s %#sconnect+ &e #ntro%uce a frame&ork &h#ch enumerates the

$oss#'le relat#onsh#$s 'e-t&een true an% $erce#ve% ca$a'#l#ty. Our frame&ork %#s-t#n"u#shes

'et&een $hys#cal ca$a'#l#ty (e.".+ %o#n" laun%ry! an% soc#al ca$a'#l#ty (e.".+ un%erstan%#n" &hat

someone #s say#n"!+ an% 'et&een a $art#cular sk#ll an% overall ca$a'#l#ty.

El#*a'eth Cha+ ,nca . ra"an an% S#%%hartha S. Sr#n#vasan are th the Ro'ot#cs Inst#tute+

School of Com$uter Sc#ence+ Carne"#e Mellon Un#vers#ty+ P#tts'ur"h+ Pennsylvan#a+ Un#te%

States l#*cha+ a%ra"an+

s#%%hYcs.cmu.e%u

SPEE! ST,!+

Our f#rst stu%y #s a'out un%er-$erce$t#on. ,n #ncrease #n true ca$a'#l#ty %oes not necessar#lylea% to an #ncrease #n $erce#ve% ca$a'#l#ty.

=e e$ose% users to t&o v#%eos of a ro'ot $erform#n" a $hys#cal task net to an actor. In each

scenar#o+ the ro'ot enters the k#tchen an% retr#eves a m#cro&ave meal &h#le stan%#n" net to the

actor. In one v#%eo+ the ro'ot moves faster an% s$en%s less t#me $lann#n".


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A8Stud7 !e%i"n

3) (ani'ulated -ariable%0 >e mani'ulated %'eed b7 'rodu$in" t@o 9ideo% of a robot

'erformin" a 'h7%i$al ta%D

L retr#ev#n" a m#cro&ave meal L at t&o %#fferent s$ee%s (0.1 m#nutes vs. /./5 m#nutes to

com$lete the task!. The lo&er s$ee% re$resents the state of the art+ &h#le the h#"her s$ee%

re$resents a ca$a'#l#ty &ell 'eyon% current ro'ot man#$ulat#on sk#lls #n 'oth $lann#n" an%

eecut#on t#me.

1) Parti$i'ant%0 >e re$ruited 12 'arti$i'ant% &31 female%

an% males! throu"h ,ma*on Mechan#cal Turk. ,ll $art#c#$ants &ere locate% #n the Un#te%

States+ $r#mary En"l#sh s$eakers an% ran"#n" #n a"e from 01 to 65 (MZ1.+ SZ/.55! years.

3[ $ercent of $art#c#$ants &ere male an% 6[ &ere female. Part#c#$ants &ere com$ensate% V3

for successful com$let#on of the stu%y.

Part#c#$ants &ere tol% that they &ere tak#n" $art #n a survey to %es#"n 'etter home ro'ots. ,ll

$art#c#$ants successfully ans&ere% a set of control 9uest#ons a'out the v#%eos they &ere sho&n

an% none ha% $rev#ously $art#c#$ate% #n a stu%y th the ro'ot.

Th#s resulte% #n /3 $art#c#$ants s$rea% across the 0 con%#t#ons. On avera"e+ $art#c#$ants rate%

the#r fam#l#ar#ty th ro'ots as 0.0 (SZ/.0! an% the#r $rev#ous level of #nteract#on as /.1

(SZ.37! on a 7-$o#nt 2#ker scale.

1! Pro$edure0 =e o$te% for a th#n-su')ects %es#"n+ &here $art#c#$ants &ere sho&n 'oth the

slo& an% fast v#%eos+ #n or%er to ena'le %#rect com$ar#sons an% stay a&ay from a'solute rat#n"s

(as su""este% 'y a $#lot stu%y!. The or%er of the v#%eos sho&n &ere counter'alance% to ne"ate

or%er#n" effects.

Part#c#$ants &ere "#ven a l#nk throu"h ,ma*on Mechan#cal Turk to the stu%y. ,fter rea%#n" the

#nstruct#ons an% "#v#n" the#r consent+ $art#c#$ants &ere sho&n the f#rst v#%eo of the ro'ots

la'ele% Ro'ot /. To cont#nue the stu%y+ $art#c#$ants ha% to &atch the ent#re v#%eo. They then


44/71

ans&ere% 9uest#ons a'out the v#%eo an% $erce#ve% ca$a'#l#ty. They re$eate% th#s $rocess after

&atch#n" the secon% v#%eo.


45/71

*unct#onal

5./1 Conversat#onal7 65.6[ 5

3./316

5 3

1.10

31./[ 0E.J/[ 11

00

/Success >a#lure Success >a#lure

(a! Percenta"e Chosen ('! Rat#n"

CAPA#ILITIES OF EPERT S+STE(S


46/71

APPLICATION OF EPERT S+STE(S ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

• Cre%#t "rant#n"

• Informat#on mana"ement an% retr#eval

• ,I an% e$ert systems em'e%%e% #n $ro%ucts

• Plant layout

•?os$#tals an% me%#cal fac#l#t#es

• ?el$ %esks an% ass#stance

• Em$loyee $erformance evaluat#on

• 2oan analys#s

• ;#rus %etect#on

• Re$a#r an% ma#ntenance

• Sh#$$#n"

• Market#n"

• =arehouse o$t#m#*at#on


47/71

Artifi$ial Intelli"en$e in9ol9e% the %tud7 of0

o automate% reco"n#t#on an% un%erstan%#n" of s#"nals

o reason#n"+ $lann#n"+ an% %ec#s#on-mak#n"

o learn#n" an% a%a$tat#on

o ,I has ma%e su'stant#al $ro"ress #n

o

reco"n#t#on an% learn#n"

o some $lann#n" an% reason#n" $ro'lems

o 'ut many o$en research $ro'lems

o ,I ,$$l#cat#ons


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o Im$rovements #n har%&are an% al"or#thms Z\ ,I a$$l#cat#ons #n #n%ustry+

f#nance+ me%#c#ne+ an% sc#ence.

!ifferent T7'e% of Artifi$ial Intelli"en$e

/. Mo%el#n" ho& #%eal a"ents shoul% th#nk

0. Mo%el#n" ho& #%eal a"ents shoul% act

: Mo%ern ,I focuses on the last %ef#n#t#on

: &e ll also focus on th#s en"#neer#n" a$$roach

: success #s )u%"e% 'y ho& &ell the a"ent $erforms

: Tur#n" (/5! KCom$ut#n" mach#nery an% #ntell#"ence

: KCan mach#nes th#nkK KCan mach#nes 'ehave #ntell#"ently

: O$erat#onal test for #ntell#"ent 'ehav#orB the Im#tat#on Game

: Su""ests ma)or com$onents re9u#re% for ,IB

1. kno&le%"e re$resentat#on

3. Reason#n"+

5. 2an"ua"eD#ma"e un%erstan%#n"+


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6. learn#n"

: Co"n#t#ve Sc#ence a$$roach

Try to "et #ns#%e our m#n%s

E.".+ con%uct e$er#ments th $eo$le to try to reverse-en"#neer ho& &e

reason+ learn#n"+ remem'er+ $re%#ct

Pro'lems

?umans %ont 'ehave rat#onally

: e.".+ #nsurance

The reverse en"#neer#n" #s very har% to %o

The 'ra#ns har%&are #s very %#fferent to a com$uter $ro"ram

: Re$resent facts a'out the &orl% v#a lo"#c

: Use lo"#cal #nference as a 'as#s for reason#n" a'out these facts

: Can 'e a very useful a$$roach to ,I

E.".+ theorem-$rovers

2#m#tat#ons


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oes not account for an a"ents uncerta#nty a'out the &orl%

: E.".+ %#ff#cult to cou$le to v#s#on or s$eech systems

?as no &ay to re$resent "oals+ costs+ etc (#m$ortant as$ects of real-&orl%

env#ronments!

: ec#s#on theoryDEconom#cs

Set of future states of the &orl%

Set of $oss#'le act#ons an a"ent can take

Ut#l#ty Z "a#n to an a"ent for each act#onDstate $a#r

,n a"ent acts rat#onally #f #t selects the act#on that ma#m#*es #ts ut#l#ty

: Or e$ecte% ut#l#ty #f there #s uncerta#nty

: Em$has#s #s on autonomous a"ents that 'ehave rat#onally (make the

'est $re%#ct#ons+ take the 'est act#ons!

on avera"e over t#me

th#n com$utat#onal l#m#tat#ons ('oun%e% rat#onal#ty!


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>hatK% in9ol9ed in Intelli"en$e?

• ,'#l#ty to #nteract th the real &orl%

to $erce#ve+ un%erstan%+ an% act

e.".+ s$eech reco"n#t#on an% un%erstan%#n" an% synthes#s

e.".+ #ma"e un%erstan%#n"

e.".+ a'#l#ty to take act#ons+ have an effect

• Reason#n" an% Plann#n"

mo%el#n" the eternal &orl%+ "#ven #n$ut

solv#n" ne& $ro'lems+ $lann#n"+ an% mak#n" %ec#s#ons

a'#l#ty to %eal th une$ecte% $ro'lems+ uncerta#nt#es

• 2earn#n" an% ,%a$tat#on

&e are cont#nuously learn#n" an% a%a$t#n"

our #nternal mo%els are al&ays 'e#n" u$%ate%

: e.".+ a 'a'y learn#n" to cate"or#*e an% reco"n#*e an#mals


52/71

Eam'le0 !ARPA Grand Challen"e

• Gran% Challen"e

Cash $r#*es (V/ to V0 m#ll#on! offere% to f#rst ro'ots to com$lete a lon"

course com$letely unass#ste%

St#mulates research #n v#s#on+ ro'ot#cs+ $lann#n"+ mach#ne learn#n"+

reason#n"+ etc

03 Gran% Challen"eB

/5 m#le route #n urthest any ro'ot &ent &as a'out 7 m#les 'ut har%est terra#n &as at the 'e"#nn#n" of the course

05 Gran% Challen"eB

/10 m#le race


53/71

Th#s


54/71

there are many #nterest#n" research $ro'lems rema#n#n"

Intelli"ent S7%tem% in +our E9er7da7 Life

: Post Off#ce

automat#c a%%ress reco"n#t#on an% sort#n" of ma#l

: 8anks

automat#c check rea%ers+ s#"nature ver#f#cat#on systems

automate% loan a$$l#cat#on class#f#cat#on

: Customer Serv#ce

automat#c vo#ce reco"n#t#on

The =e'

I%ent#fy#n" your a"e+ "en%er+ locat#on+ from your =e' surf#n"

,utomate% frau% %etect#on

#"#tal Cameras

,utomate% face %etect#on an% focus#n"


55/71

,rt#f#c#al #ntell#"ence (,I! #s the human-l#ke #ntell#"ence eh#'#te% 'y mach#nes or soft&are. The

,I f#el% #s #nter%#sc#$l#nary+ #n &h#ch a num'er of sc#ences an% $rofess#ons conver"e+ #nclu%#n"

com$uter sc#ence+ $sycholo"y+ l#n"u#st#cs+ $h#loso$hy an% neurosc#ence+ as &ell as other

s$ec#al#*e% f#el%s such as art#f#c#al $sycholo"y. Ma)or ,I researchers an% tet'ooks %ef#ne the

f#el% as Kthe stu%y an% %es#"n of #ntell#"ent a"entsK+ &here an #ntell#"ent a"ent #s a system that

$erce#ves #ts env#ronment an% takes act#ons that

ma#m#*e #ts chances of success. John McCarthy+ &ho co#ne% the term #n /55+ %ef#nes #t as Kthe

sc#ence an% en"#neer#n" of mak#n" #ntell#"ent mach#nesK. ,I research #s h#"hly techn#cal an%

s$ec#al#se%+ an% #s %ee$ly %#v#%e% #nto su'f#el%s that often fa#l to commun#cate th each other.

Some of the %#v#s#on #s %ue to soc#al an% cultural factorsB su'f#el%s have "ro&n u$ aroun%

$art#cular #nst#tut#ons an% the &ork of #n%#v#%ual researchers. ,I research #s also %#v#%e% 'y

several techn#cal #ssues. Some su'f#el%s focus on the solut#on of s$ec#f#c $ro'lems. Others focus

on one of several $oss#'le a$$roaches or on the use of a $art#cular tool or to&ar%s the

accom$l#shment of $art#cular a$$l#cat#ons. The central $ro'lems (or "oals! of ,I research #nclu%e


56/71

reason#n"+ kno&le%"e+ $lann#n"+ learn#n"+ natural lan"ua"e $rocess#n" (commun#cat#on!+

$erce$t#on an% the a'#l#ty to move an% man#$ulate o')ects. General #ntell#"ence (or Kstron" ,IK!

#s st#ll amon" the f#el%@s lon" term "oals. Currently $o$ular a$$roaches #nclu%e stat#st#cal

metho%s+ com$utat#onal #ntell#"ence an% tra%#t#onal sym'ol#c ,I. There are a lar"e num'er of

tools use% #n ,I+ #nclu%#n" vers#ons of search an% mathemat#cal o$t#m#*at#on+ lo"#c+ metho%s

'ase% on $ro'a'#l#ty an% econom#cs+ an% many others. The f#el% &as foun%e% on the cla#m that a

central $ro$erty of humans+ #ntell#"enceLthe sa$#ence of ?omo sa$#ensLKcan 'e so $rec#sely

%escr#'e% that a mach#ne can 'e ma%e to s#mulate #t.K Th#s ra#ses $h#loso$h#cal #ssues a'out the

nature of the m#n% an% the eth#cs of creat#n" art#f#c#al 'e#n"s en%o&e% th human-l#ke

#ntell#"ence+ #ssues &h#ch have 'een a%%resse% 'y myth+ f#ct#on an% $h#loso$hy s#nce ant#9u#ty.

,rt#f#c#al #ntell#"ence has 'een the su')ect of tremen%ous o$t#m#sm 'ut has also suffere%

stunn#n" set'acks. To%ay #t has 'ecome an essent#al $art of the technolo"y #n%ustry+ $rov#%#n"

the heavy l#ft#n" for many of the most challen"#n" $ro'lems #n com$uter sc#ence.

!ata Anal7%i%

It #s the $rocess of systemat#cally a$$ly#n" stat#st#cal an%Dor lo"#cal techn#9ues to %escr#'e an%

#llustrate+ con%ense an% reca$+ an% evaluate %ata. ,ccor%#n" to Shamoo an% Resn#k (01!

var#ous analyt#c $roce%ures $rov#%e a &ay of %ran" #n%uct#ve #nferences from %ata an%

%#st#n"u#sh#n" the s#"nal (the $henomenon of #nterest! from the no#se (stat#st#cal fluctuat#ons!

$resent #n the %ata..

=h#le %ata analys#s #n 9ual#tat#ve research can #nclu%e stat#st#cal $roce%ures+ many t#mes

analys#s 'ecomes an on"o#n" #terat#ve $rocess &here %ata #s cont#nuously collecte% an% analy*e%

almost s#multaneously. In%ee%+ researchers "enerally analy*e for $atterns #n o'servat#ons throu"h

the ent#re %ata collect#on $hase (Savenye+ Ro'#nson+ 03!. The form of the analys#s #s

%eterm#ne% 'y the s$ec#f#c 9ual#tat#ve a$$roach taken (f#el% stu%y+ ethno"ra$hy content analys#s+

oral h#story+ '#o"ra$hy+ uno'trus#ve research! an% the form of the %ata (f#el% notes+ %ocuments+

au%#ota$e+ v#%eota$e!.

,n essent#al com$onent of ensur#n" %ata #nte"r#ty #s the accurate an% a$$ro$r#ate analys#s of

research f#n%#n"s. Im$ro$er stat#st#cal analyses %#stort sc#ent#f#c f#n%#n"s+ m#slea% casual rea%ers


57/71

(She$ar%+ 00!+ an% may ne"at#vely #nfluence the $u'l#c $erce$t#on of research. Inte"r#ty #ssues

are )ust as relevant to analys#s of non-stat#st#cal %ata as &ell.

Con%ideration%i%%ue% in data anal7%i%

There are a num'er of #ssues that researchers shoul% 'e co"n#*ant of th res$ect to %ata

analys#s. These #nclu%eB

• ?av#n" the necessary sk#lls to analy*e

• Concurrently select#n" %ata collect#on metho%s an% a$$ro$r#ate analys#s

• ran" un'#ase% #nference

• Ina$$ro$r#ate su'"rou$ analys#s

• >ollon" acce$ta'le norms for %#sc#$l#nes

• eterm#n#n" %tati%ti$al %i"nifi$an$e

• 2ack of clearly %ef#ne% an% o')ect#ve out$ome mea%urement%

• Prov#%#n" honest an% accurate analys#s

• Manner of $resent#n" %ata

• Env#ronmentalDcontetual #ssues

• ata recor%#n" metho%

• Partitionin" MtetK &hen analy*#n" 9ual#tat#ve %ata

• Tra#n#n" of staff con%uct#n" analyses

• Rel#a'#l#ty an% ;al#%#ty


58/71

E'lo%ion

Early ,I researchers %evelo$e% al"or#thms that #m#tate% the ste$-'y-ste$ reason#n" that humans

use &hen they solve $u**les or make lo"#cal %e%uct#ons.8y the late /s an% /s+ ,I

research ha% also %evelo$e% h#"hly successful metho%s for %eal#n" th uncerta#n or #ncom$lete

#nformat#on+ em$loy#n" conce$ts from $ro'a'#l#ty an% econom#cs.

>or %#ff#cult $ro'lems+ most of these al"or#thms can re9u#re enormous com$utat#onal resources

most e$er#ence a Kcom'#nator#al e$los#onKB the amount of memory or com$uter t#me re9u#re%

'ecomes astronom#cal &hen the $ro'lem "oes 'eyon% a certa#n s#*e. The search for more

eff#c#ent $ro'lem-solv#n" al"or#thms #s a h#"h $r#or#ty for ,I research.

?uman 'e#n"s solve most of the#r $ro'lems us#n" fast+ #ntu#t#ve )u%"ements rather than the

consc#ous+ ste$-'y-ste$ %e%uct#on that early ,I research &as a'le to mo%el.,I has ma%e some

$ro"ress at #m#tat#n" th#s k#n% of Ksu'-sym'ol#cK $ro'lem solv#n"B em'o%#e% a"ent a$$roaches

em$has#*e the #m$ortance of sensor#motor sk#lls to h#"her reason#n"H neural net research

attem$ts to s#mulate the structures #ns#%e the 'ra#n that "#ve r#se to th#s sk#llH stat#st#cal

a$$roaches to ,I m#m#c the $ro'a'#l#st#c nature of the human a'#l#ty to "uess

*a9in" ne$e%%ar7 %Dill% to anal7He

, tac#t assum$t#on of #nvest#"ators #s that they have rece#ve% tra#n#n" suff#c#ent to %emonstrate a

h#"h stan%ar% of research $ract#ce. Un#ntent#onal Xsc#ent#f#c m#scon%uct@ #s l#kely the result of

$oor #nstruct#on an% follo&-u$. , num'er of stu%#es su""est th#s may 'e the case more often than


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'el#eve% (or eam$le+ S#ca foun% that a%e9uate

tra#n#n" of $hys#c#ans #n me%#cal schools #n the $ro$er %es#"n+ #m$lementat#on an% evaluat#on of

cl#n#cal tr#als #s a'ysmally small (S#ca+ c#te% #n


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$ro$ose% 'efore 'e"#nn#n" the stu%y even #f the #ntent #s e$loratory #n nature. If #t the stu%y #s

e$loratory #n nature+ the #nvest#"ator shoul% make th#s e$l#c#t so that rea%ers un%erstan% that

the research #s more of a hunt#n" e$e%#t#on rather than 'e#n" $r#mar#ly theory %r#ven. ,lthou"h

a researcher may not have a theory-'ase% hy$othes#s for test#n" relat#onsh#$s 'et&een $rev#ously

unteste% var#a'les+ a theory ll have to 'e %evelo$e% to e$la#n an unant#c#$ate% f#n%#n".

In%ee%+ #n e$loratory sc#ence+ there are no a $r#or# hy$otheses therefore there are no

hy$othet#cal tests. ,lthou"h theor#es can often %r#ve the $rocesses use% #n the #nvest#"at#on of

9ual#tat#ve stu%#es+ many t#mes $atterns of 'ehav#or or occurrences %er#ve% from analy*e% %ata

can result #n %evelo$#n" ne& theoret#cal frame&orks rather than %eterm#ne% a 'riori (Savenye+

Ro'#nson+ 03!.

It #s conce#va'le that mult#$le stat#st#cal tests coul% y#el% a s#"n#f#cant f#n%#n" 'y chance alone

rather than reflect#n" a true effect. Inte"r#ty #s com$rom#se% #f the #nvest#"ator only re$orts tests

th s#"n#f#cant f#n%#n"s+ an% ne"lects to ment#on a lar"e num'er of tests fa#l#n" to reach

s#"n#f#cance. =h#le access to com$uter-'ase% stat#st#cal $acka"es can fac#l#tate a$$l#cat#on of

#ncreas#n"ly com$le analyt#c $roce%ures+ #na$$ro$r#ate uses of these $acka"es can result #n

a'uses as &ell.

Follo@in" a$$e'table norm% for di%$i'line%

Every f#el% of stu%y has %evelo$e% #ts acce$te% $ract#ces for %ata analys#s. Resn#k (0! states

that #t #s $ru%ent for #nvest#"ators to follo& these acce$te% norms. Resn#k further states that the

norms are X]'ase% on t&o factorsB

(/! the nature of the var#a'les use% (#.e.+ 9uant#tat#ve+ com$arat#ve+ or 9ual#tat#ve!+

(0! assum$t#ons a'out the $o$ulat#on from &h#ch the %ata are %ra&n (#.e.+ ran%om %#str#'ut#on+

#n%e$en%ence+ sam$le s#*e+ etc.!. If one uses unconvent#onal norms+ #t #s cruc#al to clearly state

th#s #s 'e#n" %one+ an% to sho& ho& th#s ne& an% $oss#'ly unacce$te% metho% of analys#s #s

'e#n" use%+ as &ell as ho& #t %#ffers from other more tra%#t#onal metho%s. >or eam$le+ Schro%er+

Carey+ an% ;ana'le (01! )uta$ose the#r #%ent#f#cat#on of ne& an% $o&erful %ata analyt#c


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solut#ons %evelo$e% to count %ata #n the area of ?I; contract#on r#sk th a %#scuss#on of the

l#m#tat#ons of commonly a$$l#e% metho%s.

If one uses unconvent#onal norms+ #t #s cruc#al to clearly state th#s #s 'e#n" %one+ an% to sho&

ho& th#s ne& an% $oss#'ly unacce$te% metho% of analys#s #s 'e#n" use%+ as &ell as ho& #t %#ffers

from other more tra%#t#onal metho%s. >or eam$le+ Schro%er+ Carey+ an% ;ana'le (01!

)uta$ose the#r #%ent#f#cat#on of ne& an% $o&erful %ata analyt#c solut#ons %evelo$e% to count

%ata #n the area of ?I; contract#on r#sk th a %#scuss#on of the l#m#tat#ons of commonly a$$l#e%

metho%s.

!eterminin" %i"nifi$an$e

=h#le the convent#onal $ract#ce #s to esta'l#sh a stan%ar% of acce$ta'#l#ty for stat#st#cal

s#"n#f#cance+ th certa#n %#sc#$l#nes+ #t may also 'e a$$ro$r#ate to %#scuss &hether atta#n#n"

stat#st#cal s#"n#f#cance has a true $ract#cal mean#n"+ #.e.+ M$lini$al %i"nifi$an$eK. Jeans (/0!

%ef#nes Xcl#n#cal s#"n#f#cance as the $otent#al for research f#n%#n"s to make a real an% #m$ortant

%#fference to cl#ents or cl#n#cal $ract#ce+ to health status or to any other $ro'lem #%ent#f#e% as a

relevant $r#or#ty for the %#sc#$l#ne.

Fen%all an% Grove (/! %ef#ne cl#n#cal s#"n#f#cance #n terms of &hat ha$$ens &hen ]

trou'le% an% %#sor%ere% cl#ents are no&+ after treatment+ not %#st#n"u#sha'le from a mean#n"ful

an% re$resentat#ve non-%#stur'e% reference "rou$. Thom$son an%


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a. recor%#n" au%#o an%Dor v#%eo an% transcr#'#n" later

'. e#ther a researcher or self-a%m#n#stere% survey

c. e#ther close% en%e% survey or o$en en%e% survey

%. $re$ar#n" ethno"ra$h#c f#el% notes from a $art#c#$antDo'server

e. re9uest#n" that $art#c#$ants themselves take notes+ com$#le an% su'm#t them to researchers.

=h#le each metho%olo"y em$loye% has rat#onale an% a%vanta"es+ #ssues of o')ect#v#ty an%

su')ect#v#ty may 'e ra#se% &hen %ata #s analy*e%.

Partitionin" the tet

ur#n" content analys#s+ staff researchers or Xraters may use #ncons#stent strate"#es #n analy*#n"

tet mater#al. Some Xraters may analy*e comments as a &hole &h#le others may $refer to %#ssect

tet mater#al 'y se$arat#n" &or%s+ $hrases+ clauses+ sentences or "rou$s of sentences. Every

effort shoul% 'e ma%e to re%uce or el#m#nate #ncons#stenc#es 'et&een rater

Artificial Intelligence New

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