Artificial Intelligence in the Worldfromm.usfca.edu/Spring2017Handouts/AIW Lecture 8 slides.pdfsolve...
Transcript of Artificial Intelligence in the Worldfromm.usfca.edu/Spring2017Handouts/AIW Lecture 8 slides.pdfsolve...
ArtificialIntelligenceintheWorld
Prof.LevyFrommInstitute
SpringSession,2017
Lecture8agenda(1)
What’shappenedthisweekDeepLearningAutonomousVehiclesComputerGoEthics&legalissuesANNs&brainsOtherapplications
• ThefutureofAI• Whattoexpectworldwide• ImpactsofAIapplications• Hardware&softwareofAI• Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions• “IntuitiveAI”tools
• Whattowatchoutfor
• Finalcomments
Lecture8agenda(2)
Whathappenedinthepastweek?(1)
•DeepLearning
• RockStarsofMachineLearning/DeepLearning• (seminarinSeptember,MountainView)
• “DeepLearningTakesonTranslation”– CACM
Whathappenedinthepastweek?(2)
• AutonomousVehicles• “Thefutureofartificialintelligenceandself-drivingcars”–StanfordEngineering• (summaryofaradioprogramtitled,“TheFutureofEverything”)• https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/this-darpa-video-targeting-ai-hype-is-necessary-viewing
•McKinsey– Self-drivingcartechnology– Whenwillthe
robotshittheroad?
• Computerchess&go
• NYTimes-- Google’sAlphaGo DefeatsChineseGoMasterinWinforA.I.• NYTimes- Google’sA.I.ProgramRattlesChineseGoMasterasItWinsMatch• AsmallconsolationforMr.Ke wasthatheplayedanear-perfectgameforthefirsthundredmoves• TwoGoprofessionals,eachteamedwithAlphaGo,arescheduledtoplayagainsteachotheronFriday.• “Afterthistime,AlphaGo tomeis100percentperfection,tomeAlphaGo isthegodoftheGogame,”hesaidafterthegameonThursday.
Whathappenedinthepastweek?(3)
• Ethics&legalissues• IEEEComputerMagazine-- StandardizingEthicalDesignforArtificialIntelligenceandAutonomousSystems–• ensureeverytechnologistiseducated,trained,andempoweredtoprioritizeethicalconsiderationsinthedesignanddevelopmentofautonomousandintelligentsystems.
• (BritishStandardBS8611:2016)Robotsandroboticdevices.Guidetotheethicaldesignandapplicationofrobots androboticsystems–• guidelinesfortheidentificationofpotentialethicalharm.Significantethicalhazardsarepresentedforvariousrobotapplications.
• Whenartificialintelligencebotchesyourmedicaldiagnosis,who’stoblame?
Whathappenedinthepastweek?(4)
• ANNsandbrains
• Asteptowardbuildingamorebrain-likecomputer-- StanfordEngineering(synapse)
• MITTechnologyReview– CuriositymaybevitalfortrulysmartAI(WillKnight)
Whathappenedinthepastweek?(5)
• OtherapplicationsofAI/robotics• SecurityChiefsandHackersRacetoBenefitfromAIPrize(forsecurity)
• (FinancialTimes)
• Note:“In2015,209,000Cyber-SecurityJobPositionsWentUnfilledintheUSAlone”
• Waltzingrobotteachesbeginnershowtodancelikeapro• (NewScientist)
Whathappenedinthepastweek?(6)
TheFutureofArtificialIntelligence
•Whattoexpectworldwide
• ImpactsofAIapplications
• HardwareandsoftwareofAI
•Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions
• Designtools– “IntuitiveAI”
•Whattowatchoutfor
Thefuture-- Whattoexpectworldwide
• TheNewAIMarket– (O’Reilly)– top18companiesinvestinginAI
• TheStanford100-yearstudy– 2016report
• NationalAIR&DStrategicPlan
• 4WaysAIWillChangeAboutEverything(Salesforce)
• ImpactofAIonChina(McKinsey)
• AIBoom(Economist)
TheNewAIMarket(O’Reilly)
10.MITRE
11.Baidu
12.LinkedIn
13.Apple
14.Cylance
15.LockheedMartin
16.NASA
17.SentientCorporation
18.ElectronicArts
1.Google
2.Facebook
3.RocketFuel
4.IBM
5.Amazon
6.Yahoo
7.Intel
8.Microsoft
9.Deloitte
TheStanford100-yearstudy– 2016report
• ContrarytothemorefantasticpredictionsforAIinthepopularpress,theStudyPanelfoundnocauseforconcernthatAIisanimminentthreattohumankind.
• Instead,increasinglyusefulapplicationsofAI,withpotentiallyprofoundpositiveimpactsonoursocietyandeconomyarelikelytoemergebetweennowand2030Atthesametime,manyofthesedevelopmentswillspurdisruptionsinhowhumanlaborisaugmentedorreplacedbyAI,creatingnewchallengesfortheeconomyandsocietymorebroadly.
• Large-scalemachinelearningconcernsthedesignoflearningalgorithms,aswellasscalingexistingalgorithms,toworkwithextremelylargedatasets.
• Deeplearning,aclassoflearningprocedures,hasfacilitatedobjectrecognitioninimages,videolabeling,andactivityrecognition,andismakingsignificantinroadsintootherareasofperception,suchasaudio,speech,andnaturallanguageprocessing.
• Reinforcementlearningisaframeworkthatshiftsthefocusofmachinelearningfrompatternrecognitiontoexperience-drivensequentialdecision-making.ItpromisestocarryAIapplicationsforwardtowardtakingactionsintherealworld.
Stanford– currently“hot”areasofAIresearch
Stanford– currently“hot”areasofAIresearch(2)• Roboticsiscurrentlyconcernedwithhowtotrainarobottointeractwiththeworldarounditingeneralizableandpredictableways,howtofacilitatemanipulationofobjectsininteractiveenvironments,andhowtointeractwithpeople.
• Computervisioniscurrentlythemostprominentformofmachineperception.Ithasbeenthesub-areaofAImosttransformedbytheriseofdeeplearning.Forthefirsttime,computersareabletoperformsomevisiontasksbetterthanpeople.
• NaturalLanguageProcessing,oftencoupledwithautomaticspeechrecognition,isquicklybecomingacommodityforwidelyspokenlanguageswithlargedatasets.Researchisnowshiftingtodeveloprefinedandcapablesystemsthatareabletointeractwithpeoplethroughdialog,notjustreacttostylizedrequests.Greatstrideshavealsobeenmadeinmachinetranslationamongdifferentlanguages,withmorereal-timeperson-to-personexchangesonthenearhorizon.
• Collaborativesystemsresearchinvestigatesmodelsandalgorithmstohelpdevelopautonomoussystemsthatcanworkcollaborativelywithothersystemsandwithhumans.
Stanford– currently“hot”areasofAIresearch(3)• Crowdsourcingandhumancomputationresearchinvestigatesmethodstoaugmentcomputersystemsbymakingautomatedcallstohumanexpertisetosolveproblemsthatcomputersalonecannotsolvewell.
• AlgorithmicgametheoryandcomputationalsocialchoicedrawattentiontotheeconomicandsocialcomputingdimensionsofAI,suchashowsystemscanhandlepotentiallymisalignedincentives.• InternetofThings(IoT)researchisdevotedtotheideathatawidearrayofdevices,includingappliances,vehicles,buildings,andcameras,canbeinterconnectedtocollectandsharetheirabundantsensoryinformationtouseforintelligentpurposes.• Neuromorphiccomputingisasetoftechnologiesthatseektomimicbiologicalneuralnetworkstoimprovethehardwareefficiencyandrobustnessofcomputingsystems,oftenreplacinganolderemphasisonseparatemodulesforinput/output,instruction-processing,andmemory.
Stanfordstudy-- AIBYDOMAIN
• TRANSPORTATION• HOME/SERVICEROBOTS• HEALTHCARE• EDUCATION• LOW-RESOURCECOMMUNITIES• PUBLICSAFETYANDSECURITY• EMPLOYMENTANDWORKPLACE• ENTERTAINMENT
(U.S.)NationalAIR&DStrategicPlan
• In2015,theU.S.Government’sinvestmentinunclassifiedR&DinAI-relatedtechnologieswasapproximately$1.1billion.• Althoughtheseinvestmentshaveledtoimportantnewscienceandtechnologies,thereisopportunityforfurthercoordinationacrosstheFederalgovernmentsothattheseinvestmentscanachievetheirfullpotential.
• RecognizingthetransformativeeffectsofAI,inMay2016,theWhiteHouseOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy(OSTP)announcedanewinteragencyworkinggrouptoexplorethebenefitsandrisksofAI.• OSTPalsoannouncedaseriesoffourworkshops,heldintheMay-July2016timeframe,aimedatspurringpublicdialogueonAI,andidentifyingthechallengesandopportunitiesitentails.
4WaysArtificialIntelligenceWillChangeJustAboutEverything-- Salesforce
• TheInternetofThings
• Data&Analytics
•MachineLearning
• Prediction
ImpactofAIonChina-- McKinseyreport
• Withitsbiggesttechcompaniesdrivingsignificantinvestmentsin
R&D,ChinaisoneoftheleadingglobalhubsofAIdevelopment.Its
advantagesincludeavastpopulationanddiverseindustrymixthat
havethepotentialtogeneratehugevolumesofdataandprovidean
enormousmarket.
• [p.8graphic– AIstartups,M&Adeals]
AIBoom(Economist)• Google,MicrosoftandIBMaremakingAIservicessuchasspeechrecognition,sentenceparsingandimageanalysisfreelyavailableonline,allowingstartupstocombinesuchbuildingblockstoformnewAIproductsandservices.• Morethan300companiesfromarangeofindustrieshavealreadybuiltAI-poweredappsusingIBM’sWatsonplatform,doingeverythingfromfilteringjobcandidatestopickingwines.
• http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700756-artificial-intelligence-boom-based-old-idea-modern-twist-not
ImpactsofAIapplications
• Impactsofautonomousdriving
• Medicalapplications– diagnosis(TheMotleyFool,Apr,2017)
• FindingaVoice(Economistspecialreport)
• HowAIWillChangeEverything(Baidu)
Impactsofautonomousdriving
• Reducedaccidents• Increasedroadcapacity/decreasedroadcongestion• Decreasedparkingdemand
• Increaseinelectricitydemand/decreasedgasolineconsumption
• Changeinland-usepatterns• Universalsurveillance?
• http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences
Medicalapplications– diagnosis• DoctorsattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaSchoolofMedicineprovidedWatson withtherecordsof1,000cancerpatients,anditwasabletoprovidetreatmentplansthatconcurredwithoncologists'actualrecommendationsin99%ofcases.• Additionally,Watsonwasabletoprovideadditionaloptionsmissedbyitshumancounterpartsin30%ofthecases,havingbeensuppliedwithallthelatestcancerresearch.• Thiswillprovideeffectivecancertreatmenttoawidervarietyofpatientsthaneverbefore,whilemakingeverydoctorwithaccesstoWatsonacancerexpert.
•• TheMotleyFool,Apr,2017
FindingaVoice• Machinescannotconductproperconversationswithhumansbecausetheydonotunderstandtheworld
• Themorethatmachinestalk,andthemorethattheyseemtounderstandpeople,themoretheiruserswillbetemptedtoattributehumantraitstothem.
• Thatraisesquestionsaboutwhatitmeanstobehuman.Languageiswidelyseenashumankind’smostdistinguishingtrait.AIresearchersinsistthattheirmachinesdonotthinklikepeople,butiftheycanlistenandtalklikehumans,whatdoesthatmakethem?
• Ashumansteachevermorecapablemachinestouselanguage,theonce-obviouslinebetweenthemwillblur.
• Economistspecialreport
HowAIWillChangeEverything• Artificialintelligenceisshapingupasthenextindustrialrevolution,poisedtorapidlyreinventbusiness,theglobaleconomyandhowpeopleworkandinteractwitheachother.• AndrewNg,chiefscientistatChineseinternetgiantBaiduInc.andco-founderofeducationstartupCoursera,
andNeilJacobstein,chairoftheartificialintelligenceandroboticsdepartmentatSiliconValleythinktankSingularityUniversity
• …Inafewyearseveryonewillbeusingspeechrecognition.Itwillfeelnatural.You’llsoonforgetwhatitwaslikebeforeyoucouldtalktocomputers.
• …ateamatImperialCollegeLondondevelopanAIthatcoulddiagnosepulmonaryhypertensionbetterthancardiologiststypicallydo.Cardiologistshaveabout60%accuracy.Thissystemdoes80%accuracy.
• inJanuaryofthisyear,… CMUdevelopedapokerplayercalledLibratus,whichbeatfouroftheworldchampionpokerplayers,andnotbyjustalittlebit.Theyplayed120,000handsofpoker,andLibratus endedupwith$1.77millioninpokerchips.
• [AIwillcausedisplacement]overthenext10to15yearsthatisreallysignificant.…weneedtomakeeducationaffordablebecausetherewillbenewjobs.
• WallStreetJournalinterviewwithAndrewNg&NeilJacobstein
HardwareandsoftwareofAI
• GoogledevelopsanewAIchip(“CloudTPU”)
• BasedonGoogle’sTensorFlowprogramminglanguage
• Fasterprocessing;fastertotrain(machinelearning)
• “CloudTPUpods”areclustersofthesenewTPUswithhigh-speeddata
connectionsà AI-firstdatacenters
• MITTechnologyReview
HardwareandsoftwareofAI(2)
Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions
• Thisappknowshowyoufeel— fromthelookonyourface
• Whatifacomputercouldrecognizeyourfacialexpression,andreacttohow
youfeel?RanaelKaliouby seesbigpossibilitiesinmakingtechnology
emotionallyaware.
• TEDWomen2015
• https://www.ted.com/talks/rana_el_kaliouby_this_app_knows_how_you_feel_from_th
e_look_on_your_face?language=en
• ConsciousnessCloud…wouldgivetherobotsworkinginthefactory“real-timesharedaccesstothementalstateofallhumansintheworkplace.”
• ArizonaStateUniversity– Yochan Group
Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions(2)
• Facebookisbuildingbrain-computerinterfaces• a brain- computerinterfacethatwillletyoutypewithjustyourmindwithoutinvasiveimplants
• collaboratingwithUCSanFrancisco,UCBerkeley,JohnsHopkinsMedicine,JohnsHopkinsUniversity’sAppliedPhysicsLaboratoryandWashingtonUniversitySchoolofMedicineinSt.Louis
• awayforhumanstohearthroughtheirskin• letyourskinmimicthecochleainyourearthattranslatessoundintospecificfrequenciesforyourbrain.Thistechnologycouldletdeafpeopleessentially“hear”bybypassingtheirears
• TechCrunch,April19,2017
Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions(3)
• ARMWantstoPutItsChipsInsideYourBrain
• ARMwillpartnerwiththeUniversityofWashington’sCenterforSensorimotor
NeuralEngineeringtohelpresearcherstherebuildchipsthatsitinside
people’sskulls.
• Thegoal:tohelppeoplewhoaresufferingfrom paralysisbroughtaboutby,
say,strokeorspinalcordinjurytomovepartsoftheirbodyagain.
Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions(3)
• Neuralink,juststartedbyElonMusk• “neurallace”,ascience-fictionalconceptinventedbyIainM.Banks,anovelist,thatis,inessence,amachineinterfacewovenintothebrain.
• Kernel• devicesforthetreatmentofneurologicalconditionssuchasstrokesandAlzheimer’sdisease
• (andthen)cognition-enhancingimplants
• aimedinitiallyatmedicalapplications,theyalsoexplicitlynodtothepossiblenon-medicalusesofthiskindofimplanttechnology
• (nooneunderstandsthemechanismbehindthenaturalequivalentofsoftware—thewaythebrainencodesinformation)
Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions(4)
DesignTools– “IntuitiveAI”
• MauriceConti– GenerativeDesign
• https://www.ted.com/talks/maurice_conti_the_incredible_inventions_of_intuitive_ai
Whattowatchoutforinthefuture
•WillDemocracySurviveBigDataandArtificialIntelligence?• “Nudging”– encouragingustodo“therightthing”• Dangerofvote-nudgingbygovernments• “Whatcanwedonow?”• thebasicrightsofcitizensshouldbeprotected• Thereshouldalsobearighttogetacopyofpersonaldatacollectedaboutus;theunauthorised useofdatawouldhavetobepunishablebylaw• …
• fromSpektrum derWissenschaft,sister-publicationofScientificAmerican
WillDemocracySurviveBigDataandArtificialIntelligence?
FromMcKinseyreportonAIinChina
• Itisalsoanawesomeresponsibilitytomanagemachinesthatcanlearnandmakedecisionswithouthumandirection.… raisemanyethicalandlegalissues• …questionsaboutwhoownspersonaldata,howitmaybeshared,andhowitshouldbeprotectedfromtheincreasingriskofcybersecuritybreaches.• AImayunintentionallydiscriminate initsdecisionmaking• …manylegalimplications.WhenaccidentsandevencrimeshappenduetoAIdecisionmaking,whoisheldliable?• thepotentialforweaponizing AIisastrongconcern• StephenHawking,ElonMusk,andmorethan1,000AIandroboticsresearchershavesignedalettersuggestingabanonAIwarfare
YannLeCun (Facebook)onthefutureofAI
• Buildingintelligentmachinesisoneofthegreatestscientificchallengesofourtimes,anditwillrequirethesharingofideasacrosscountries,companies,labsandacademia.
• ProgressinAIislikelytobegradual—andopen.
“TheiBrain isHereandit’salreadyinsideyourphone”
• HowAIandMachineLearningworkatApple
• ArticlebyStevenLevy/Backchannel
• https://backchannel.com/an-exclusive-look-at-how-ai-and-machine-learning-
work-at-apple-8dbfb131932b
Onemorething…
Whatshallwetellourgrandchildrentostudy?
• GroundinginSTEMsubjects• Communicationskills– includingEnglishwriting&speaking• Empathy/collaboration/teamworkskills• Lifelonglearning
• “Themostimportantpredictorofateam’s success isitscommunicationpatterns.Thosepatternsareassignificantasallotherfactors—intelligence,personality,andtalent—combined.”[HBR]
Additionalrecommendedreading…
• TheMasterandHisEmissary:TheDividedBrainandtheMakingoftheWesternWorld• byIainMcGilchrist• Seehandout
ArtificialIntelligenceintheWorld
AccesstoAIWcoursematerials
• Includes•Handouts• Slides•Audiooflectures
• http://fromm.usfca.edu/course-materials.html