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Webappendix for Aune D, Mahamat-Saleh Y, Norat T, Riboli E. Tobacco smoking and the risk of pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies. Pancreatology

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Webappendix for Aune D, Mahamat-Saleh Y, Norat T, Riboli E. Tobacco smoking and the

risk of pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Pancreatology

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Supplementary text

PubMed search terms:

1) “body mass index” OR body mass index[MeSH] OR BMI OR overweight OR overweight[MeSH] OR obesity OR obesity[MeSH] OR anthropometry OR anthropometry[MeSH] OR fatness OR “body fatness” OR “abdominal fatness” OR “abdominal obesity” OR abdominal obesity[MeSH] OR “waist circumference” OR "hip circumference" OR “waist-to-hip ratio” OR waist-to-hip ratio[MeSH] OR adiposity OR adiposity[MeSH] OR "weight gain" OR weight gain[MeSH] OR "weight change" OR weight change[MeSH] OR “weight loss” OR weight loss[MeSH]

2) diabetes OR diabetes[MeSH] OR glucose OR glucose[MeSH] OR "medical history" OR medical history[MeSH]

3) "physical activity" OR physical activity[MeSH] OR exercise OR exercise[MeSH] OR sports OR sports[MeSH] OR walking OR walking[MeSH] OR biking OR bicycling OR bicycling[MeSH] OR running OR running[MeSH] OR fitness OR "exercise test" OR exercise test[MeSH] OR inactivity OR sedentary

4) smoking OR smoking[MeSH] OR cigarette OR cigarette[MeSH] OR cigarettes OR cigarettes[MeSH] smoke OR smoke[MeSH] OR tobacco OR tobacco[MeSH] OR snus OR snuff OR snuff[MeSH] OR "environmental tobacco smoke” OR environmental tobacco smoke[MeSH] OR “passive smoking” OR passive smoking[MeSH] OR “smoking cessation" OR smoking cessation[MeSH]

5) pancreatitis OR pancreatitis[MeSH]

6) "case-control" OR cohort OR prospective OR longitudinal OR retrospective OR "follow-up" OR "cross-sectional" OR "hazard ratio" OR "hazard ratios" OR "relative risk" OR "relative risks" OR "incidence rate ratio" OR "incidence rate ratios" OR "odds ratio" OR odds ratios OR incidence

7) 1 OR 2 OR 3 OR 4

8) 7 AND 5 AND 6

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Embase search terms

1) body mass index OR BMI OR overweight OR obesity OR anthropometry OR fatness OR body fatness OR abdominal fatness OR abdominal obesity OR waist circumference OR hip circumference OR waist-to-hip ratio OR adiposity OR weight gain OR weight change OR weight loss

2) body mass index/ OR BMI/ OR overweight/ OR obesity/ OR anthropometry/ OR fatness/ OR body fatness/ OR abdominal fatness/ OR abdominal obesity/ OR waist circumference/ OR hip circumference/ OR waist-to-hip ratio/ OR adiposity/ OR weight gain/ OR weight change/ OR weight loss/

3) diabetes OR glucose OR medical history

4) diabetes/ OR glucose/ OR medical history/

5) physical activity/ OR exercise/ OR sports/ OR walking/ OR biking/ OR bicycling/ OR running/ OR fitness/ OR exercise test/ OR inactivity/ OR sedentary/

6) physical activity OR exercise OR sports OR walking OR biking OR bicycling OR running OR fitness OR exercise test OR inactivity OR sedentary

7) smoking OR smoke OR tobacco OR snus OR snuff OR environmental tobacco smoke OR passive smoking OR smoking cessation

8) smoking/ OR smoke/ OR tobacco/ OR snus/ OR snuff/ OR environmental tobacco smoke/ OR passive smoking/ OR smoking cessation/

9) pancreatitis

10) pancreatitis/

11) case-control OR cohort OR prospective OR longitudinal OR retrospective OR follow-up OR cross-sectional OR hazard ratio OR hazard ratios OR relative risk OR relative risks OR incidence rate ratio OR incidence rate ratios OR odds ratio OR odds ratios OR incidence

12) 1 OR 2 OR 3 OR 4 OR 5 OR 6 OR 7 OR 8

13) 9 OR 10

14) 12 AND 13 AND 11

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Supplementary Table 1. List of excluded studies and exclusion reasons

Exclusion reason Reference number

Abstract (1-10)

Case-control study (11-35)

Case only study (36-39)

Cross-sectional study (40-45)

Crude assessment of smoking (46;47)

Duplicate (48-50)

Meta-analysis (51-54)

No risk estimates (55;56)

Not relevant data (57;58)

Not relevant outcome (59-78)

Patient populations (79-85)

Review (86-94)

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(83) Lee JW, Kim HG, Han J, Kim BS, Jung JT, Kwon JG, Kim EY, Lee CH. Association between smoking and the change of computed tomography findings in chronic pancreatitis. Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Conference: Digestive Diease Week, DDW 2011;April.

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(86) Truninger K. [Risk groups for pancreatic and bile duct carcinomas]. Praxis (Bern 1994 ) 2000 Aug 17;89(33):1299-304.

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(88) DiMagno MJ, DiMagno EP. Chronic pancreatitis. Curr Opin Gastroenterol 2005 Sep;21(5):544-54.

(89) Nair RJ, Lawler L, Miller MR. Chronic pancreatitis. Am Fam Physician 2007 Dec 1;76(11):1679-88.

(90) Otsuki M, Tashiro M. 4. Chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer, lifestyle-related diseases. Intern Med 2007;46(2):109-13.

(91) Yadav D, Whitcomb DC. The role of alcohol and smoking in pancreatitis. Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol 2010 Mar;7(3):131-45.

(92) Jupp J, Fine D, Johnson CD. The epidemiology and socioeconomic impact of chronic pancreatitis. Best Pract Res Clin Gastroenterol 2010 Jun;24(3):219-31.

(93) Alsamarrai A, Das SL, Windsor JA, Petrov MS. Factors that affect risk for pancreatic disease in the general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2014 Oct;12(10):1635-44.

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Supplementary Table 2. Study quality of the included studies ( Newcastle-Ottawa scale)

Author, publication year

Representative-ness

Selection of non-exposed cohort

Exposure ascertainment

Demonstration of outcome not present at start

Adjustment for one confounder

Adjustment for a second confounder

Assessment of outcome

Long enough follow-up

Loss to follow-up

Total

Morton, 2004 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 7

Lindkvist, 2008 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 7

Tolstrup, 2009 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 8

Gonzalez-Perez, 2010

1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 7

Sadr-Azodi, 2013 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 7

Lin, 2014 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 8

Prizment, 2015 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 7

Setiawan, 2016 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 6

Pang, 2018 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 8

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Supplementary Figure 1. Funnel plot of current smoking and acute pancreatitis

0.0

5.1

.15

.2s.

e. o

f log

rr

0 .2 .4 .6 .8logrr

Funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits

Supplementary Figure 2. Funnel plot of former smoking and acute pancreatitis

0.1

.2.3

s.e.

of l

ogrr

-.5 0 .5 1logrr

Funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits

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Supplementary Figure 3. Funnel plot of ever smoking and acute pancreatitis

0.0

5.1

.15

.2s.

e. o

f log

rr

0 .2 .4 .6 .8logrr

Funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits

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Supplementary Figure 4. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for current smoking and acute pancreatitis

1.25 1.49 1.29 1.72 1.84

Pang, 2018

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Sadr-Azodi, 2012

Gonzalez-Perez, 2010

Tolstrup, 2009

Lindkvist, 2008

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Pang, 2018 | 1.5225949 1.2586498 1.8418906 Setiawan, 2016 | 1.5235339 1.2624158 1.8386619 Prizment, 2015 | 1.5498899 1.3856829 1.7335558 Sadr-Azodi, 2012 | 1.5025785 1.2608072 1.7907119 Gonzalez-Perez, 2010| 1.4979715 1.2787821 1.7547311 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.4313016 1.2556105 1.6315762 Lindkvist, 2008 | 1.4338214 1.2506742 1.6437885-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.4913201 1.2937507 1.7190605------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 5. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for former smoking and acute pancreatitis

1.09 1.24 1.15 1.34 1.41

Pang, 2018

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Sadr-Azodi, 2012

Gonzalez-Perez, 2010

Tolstrup, 2009

Lindkvist, 2008

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Pang, 2018 | 1.233384 1.1320082 1.3438385 Setiawan, 2016 | 1.2400709 1.0915749 1.4087683 Prizment, 2015 | 1.2379191 1.1271889 1.359527 Sadr-Azodi, 2012 | 1.2484943 1.1370798 1.3708254 Gonzalez-Perez, 2010| 1.2489375 1.1516629 1.3544283 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.224239 1.1326834 1.323195 Lindkvist, 2008 | 1.2428594 1.1438591 1.350428-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.2382051 1.1464099 1.3373505------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 6. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for ever smoking and acute pancreatitis

1.21 1.39 1.25 1.54 1.64

Pang, 2018

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Sadr-Azodi, 2012

Gonzalez-Perez, 2010

Tolstrup, 2009

Lindkvist, 2008

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Pang, 2018 | 1.3851068 1.2143971 1.5798135 Setiawan, 2016 | 1.4233397 1.2317191 1.644771 Prizment, 2015 | 1.4330325 1.2849779 1.5981461 Sadr-Azodi, 2012 | 1.4033308 1.2286257 1.6028783 Gonzalez-Perez, 2010| 1.4137204 1.2518955 1.5964632 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.3301619 1.2302889 1.4381424 Lindkvist, 2008 | 1.3606437 1.2185235 1.5193398-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.3868747 1.2455378 1.5442497------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 7. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for current smoking and chronic pancreatitis

1.32 1.93 1.60 2.32 2.50

Pang, 2018

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Tolstrup, 2009

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Pang, 2018 | 1.9409943 1.6060915 2.3457310 Setiawan, 2016 | 1.7448012 1.3224186 2.3020935 Prizment, 2015 | 2.0221403 1.6362270 2.4990735 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.9286803 1.5703496 2.3687768-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.9270934 1.6002703 2.3206635------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 8. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for former smoking and chronic pancreatitis

0.79 1.30 1.08 1.57 2.23

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Tolstrup, 2009

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Setiawan, 2016 | 1.3265351 0.78897572 2.2303541 Prizment, 2015 | 1.2410346 1.00768670 1.5284184 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.3260264 1.09238860 1.6096343-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.2981466 1.07519910 1.5673233------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 9. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for ever smoking and chronic pancreatitis

1.28 1.59 1.39 1.82 2.04

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Tolstrup, 2009

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Setiawan, 2016 | 1.6200000 1.2840424 2.0438578 Prizment, 2015 | 1.5776975 1.3557831 1.8359348 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.5819548 1.3702604 1.8263546-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.5865819 1.3868547 1.8150728------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 10. Funnel plot of current smoking and total pancreatitis

0.1

.2.3

s.e.

of l

ogrr

-.5 0 .5 1logrr

Funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits

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Supplementary Figure 11. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for current smoking and total pancreatitis

1.19 1.62 1.29 2.03 2.30

Pang, 2018

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Lin, 2014

Tolstrup, 2009

Morton, 2004

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Pang, 2018 | 1.6549585 1.1903387 2.3009312 Setiawan, 2016 | 1.6485760 1.2315691 2.2067807 Prizment, 2015 | 1.7517918 1.3661946 2.2462206 Lin, 2014 | 1.6761312 1.3195612 2.1290531 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.5217673 1.2030087 1.9249866 Morton, 2004 | 1.4712266 1.2259645 1.7655549-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.6200802 1.2925920 2.0305401------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 12. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for former smoking and total pancreatitis

1.13 1.29 1.16 1.43 1.62

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Tolstrup, 2009

Morton, 2004

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Setiawan, 2016 | 1.3760266 1.1707975 1.6172304 Prizment, 2015 | 1.2729800 1.1266270 1.4383447 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.2687485 1.1371661 1.4155563 Morton, 2004 | 1.2726209 1.1326152 1.4299332-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.2860739 1.1556585 1.4312067------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 13. Sensitivity analysis excluding one study at a time for ever smoking and total pancreatitis

1.14 1.58 1.24 2.02 2.43

Setiawan, 2016

Prizment, 2015

Tolstrup, 2009

Morton, 2004

Study ommited Meta-analysis random-effects estimates (exponential form)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Study omitted | e^coef. [95% Conf. Interval]-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Setiawan, 2016 | 1.6977843 1.1837760 2.4349806 Prizment, 2015 | 1.7359568 1.2636800 2.3847382 Tolstrup, 2009 | 1.4555100 1.1352201 1.8661664 Morton, 2004 | 1.4639460 1.1481141 1.8666594-------------------+---------------------------------------------------------- Combined | 1.5801335 1.2388396 2.015452------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Supplementary Figure 14. Current smoking and gallstone-related and non-gallstone-related pancreatitis

Relative Risk .25 .5 .75 1 1.5 2 3 5

Study Relative Risk (95% CI)

Gallstone-related pancreatitis

Setiawan, 2016 1.10 ( 0.89, 1.35)

Sadr-Azodi, 2012 0.88 ( 0.70, 1.29)

Morton, 2004 1.10 ( 0.56, 2.15)

Subtotal 1.03 ( 0.87, 1.22)

Non-gallstone-related pancreatitis

Setiawan, 2016 1.73 ( 1.46, 2.05)

Sadr-Azodi, 2012 1.83 ( 1.37, 2.44)

Morton, 2004 2.68 ( 1.93, 3.73)

Subtotal 1.98 ( 1.55, 2.53)

Supplementary Figure 15. Former smoking and gallstone-related and non-gallstone-related pancreatitis

Relative Risk .25 .5 .75 1 1.5 2 3 5

Study Relative Risk (95% CI)

Gallstone-related pancreatitis

Setiawan, 2016 1.19 ( 1.03, 1.37)

Sadr-Azodi, 2012 0.95 ( 0.62, 1.26)

Morton, 2004 1.20 ( 0.70, 2.20)

Subtotal 1.16 ( 1.02, 1.31)

Non-gallstone-related pancreatitis

Setiawan, 2016 1.29 ( 1.13, 1.49)

Sadr-Azodi, 2012 1.47 ( 1.11, 1.94)

Morton, 2004 1.81 ( 1.20, 2.73)

Subtotal 1.40 ( 1.19, 1.64)

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Supplementary Figure 16. Ever smoking and gallstone-related and non-gallstone-related pancreatitis

Relative Risk .25 .5 .75 1 1.5 2 3 5

Study Relative Risk (95% CI)

Gallstone-related pancreatitis

Setiawan, 2016 1.16 ( 1.03, 1.31)

Sadr-Azodi, 2012 0.91 ( 0.72, 1.15)

Morton, 2004 1.16 ( 0.75, 1.79)

Subtotal 1.08 ( 0.91, 1.27)

Non-gallstone-related pancreatitis

Setiawan, 2016 1.45 ( 1.30, 1.61)

Sadr-Azodi, 2012 1.63 ( 1.34, 2.00)

Morton, 2004 2.30 ( 1.78, 2.97)

Subtotal 1.72 ( 1.35, 2.20)