Arrested Development: China's History of Invention and the Future of Innovation

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yright Bill Dodson , 2012. All rights reserved. January 19, 2013 Presented by Bill Dodson China's History of Invention and the Future of Innovation Arrested Development A Royal Asiatic Society Presentation

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Bill Dodson discusses China's history of invention, when and why it all stopped - and if it will ever restart again. He delivered the talk to members of the Royal Asiatic Society (Shanghai branch) in 2013. Bill is Chief China Industry Analyst of TrendsAsia Ltd, based in Greater Shanghai. He currently leads projects in technology market research and patents analysis in China's cleantech and hi-tech sectors for TrendsAsia Ltd. Bill is the author most recently of China Fast Forward: The Technologies, Green Industries and Innovations Driving the Mainland's Future (Wiley, August 2012), and of China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Re-shaping China and Its Relationship with the World (Wiley, 2011). He writes the Energy and Environment column for the China Economic Review.

Transcript of Arrested Development: China's History of Invention and the Future of Innovation

Page 1: Arrested Development: China's History of Invention and the Future of Innovation

© Copyright Bill Dodson , 2012. All rights reserved. January 19, 2013Presented by Bill Dodson

China's History of Invention and the Future of Innovation

Arrested Development

A Royal Asiatic Society Presentation

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© Copyright Bill Dodson , 2012. All rights reserved.

Agriculture

The Winnowing Machine

The Plow

ThisIsChinaBlog.com

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© Copyright Bill Dodson , 2012. All rights reserved.

Publishing

Woodblock Printing

Paper Money

Paper

Movable Type

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© Copyright Bill Dodson , 2012. All rights reserved.

Military Advancements

Naval Mine

Flamethrower

Multi-stage Rocket

Canon

Rocket

Trebuchet

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Nautical Advancements

Marine Compass

Double-masts

Sailing Chart (Zheng He)

Zheng He Voyages

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Textiles

Loom

Silk

Giant Draw Loom

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Mechanical Engineering

Puddle and Blast Furnace

Paddle Wheel and Smelting

Abacus Clock

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Number of Inventions per Discipline(sampling of ~ 250)

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Impact of Chinese Inventions

Tang

N. Song

Eastern Han

Western Han

Eastern Zhou

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“The Maps, Not the Chaps”Favorable Geography Incubates Population Growth

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Social Development1000 BCE to 100BCE

Source: “Why The West Rules for Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal about the Future” by Ian Morris

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Social Development100 BCE to 500 CE

Source: “Why The West Rules for Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal about the Future” by Ian Morris

Disintegration of Rome

First Black Death

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Social Development300 CE to 1100 CE

Source: “Why The West Rules for Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal about the Future” by Ian Morris

Grand Canal Built

Use of Coal

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Social Development1000 CE to 1500 CE

Source: “Why The West Rules for Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal about the Future” by Ian Morris

Mongol Invasion

Zhang He sails

Portuguese set sail

Ming begins the Great Closing

Black Death

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© Copyright Bill Dodson , 2012. All rights reserved.

Social Development1400 CE to 1800 CE

Source: “Why The West Rules for Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal about the Future” by Ian Morris

“Black Swans” discovered

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© Copyright Bill Dodson , 2012. All rights reserved.

Social Development1400 BCE to 2000 CE

Source: “Why The West Rules for Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal about the Future” by Ian Morris

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© Copyright Bill Dodson , 2012. All rights reserved.

Why No Industrial Revolution in ChinaThe Paradox of Social Development

Source: “Why The West Rules for Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal about the Future” by Ian Morris

“Rising social development creates the very forces that undermine it.”

“New problems require new paradigms.”

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Why No Scientific Revolution in ChinaLook to the Masters

•1st discussion of magnetic declination and movable printing type

•Only application of permutations in Chinese math

•Proposal for nightly measurements of lunar and planetary positions

•1st suggestion in E. Asia of purely solar calendar

•Book on theory and practice of medicine

•How the I Ching works

Shen Kua(1031 – 1095)Song Dynasty

Source: Why the Scientific Revolution Did Not Take Place in China – or Didn’t It?, Chinese Science, 1982, 5:45-66

Author, “Brush Talks from Dream Book”

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Why No Scientific RevolutionLack of Overarching Framework for Inquiry

Yang Hui (1238–1298), who criticized earlier mathematicians such as Li Chunfeng (602–670) who were content with using methods without working out their theoretical origins or principle, stating:

“The men of old changed the name of their methods from problem to problem, so that as no specific explanation was given, there is no way of telling their theoretical origin or basis.”

Source: Why the Scientific Revolution Did Not Take Place in China – or Didn’t It?, Chinese Science, 1982, 5:45-66

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Why No Scientific RevolutionLack of Overarching Framework for Inquiry

One aspect was that there does not seem to have been a systematic connection between all sciences in the minds of the people who did them.

The sciences were not integrated under the domain of philosophy, as schools and universities integrated them in Europe and Islamic lands.

Chinese had sciences, but no Science, no single conception or word for the overarching sum of all of them. “

Source: Why the Scientific Revolution Did Not Take Place in China – or Didn’t It?, Chinese Science, 1982, 5:45-66

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Scientific Revolution in the WestRage Against the Orthodoxy

“In science the test of truth has displaced most of these and redefined the others [beauty, purity, godliness, etc]. This demand for truth above all was an appeal to FACT –FACT that was in principle public, verifiable, morally neutral, invariant with the social circumstances of the observer, immune from interference by magician or god.

“But new science did more than appeal to facts. It created facts of that kind for the first time.

“That is an awesome creation.”

Source: Why the Scientific Revolution Did Not Take Place in China – or Didn’t It?, Chinese Science, 1982, 5:45-66

Galileo1564-1642

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China Under Strain

LandPower

WaterPollution

Too Many #$%&! People

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“Indigenous” InnovationNew Era Exports

Bullet Trains

Ship Building

Commercial Airliners

Wind Power

Automobiles

Solar Panels

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Adapt or DieInnovation with Chinese Characteristics

Automating

Brand Building

More In-house R&D

Going Green

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Thank you!