No. 59

FORCE MODERNISATION TRENDS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

Andrew Tan

Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies Singapore

JANUARY 2004

With Compliments This Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comment and discussion. The views expressed are entirely the authors own and not that of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies

The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) was established in July 1996 as an autonomous research institute within the Nanyang Technological University. Its objectives are to:

Conduct research on security, strategic and international issues. Provide general and graduate education in strategic studies, international relations, defence

management and defence technology.

Promote joint and exchange programmes with similar regional and international institutions; organise seminars/conferences on topics salient to the strategic and policy communities of the Asia-Pacific.

Research Through its Working Paper Series, IDSS Commentaries and other publications, the Institute seeks to share its research findings with the strategic studies and defence policy communities. The Institutes researchers are also encouraged to publish their writings in refereed journals. The focus of research is on issues relating to the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region and their implications for Singapore and other countries in the region. The Institute has also established the S. Rajaratnam Professorship in Strategic Studies (named after Singapores first Foreign Minister), to bring distinguished scholars to participate in the work of the Institute. Previous holders of the Chair include Professors Stephen Walt (Harvard University), Jack Snyder (Columbia University), Wang Jisi (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) and Alastair Iain Johnston (Harvard University). A Visiting Research Fellow Programme also enables overseas scholars to carry out related research in the Institute. Teaching The Institute provides educational opportunities at an advanced level to professionals from both the private and public sectors in Singapore and overseas through the Master of Science in Strategic Studies and Master of Science in International Relations programmes. These programmes are conducted full-time and part-time by an international faculty from July each year. The Institute also has a Doctorate programme in Strategic Studies/International Relations. In 2004, it will introduce a new Master of Science in International Political Economy programme. In addition to these graduate programmes, the Institute also teaches various modules in courses conducted by the SAFTI Military Institute, SAF Warrant Officers School, Civil Defence Academy, Singapore Technologies College and the Defence, Home Affairs and Foreign Ministries. The Institute also runs a one-semester course on The International Relations of the Asia Pacific for undergraduates in NTU. Networking The Institute convenes workshops, seminars and colloquia on aspects of international relations and security development which are of contemporary and historical significance. Highlights of the Institutes activities include a regular Colloquium on Strategic Trends in the 21st Century, the annual Asia Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers and the biennial Asia Pacific Security Conference (held in conjunction with Asian Aerospace). Institute staff participate in Track II security dialogues and scholarly conferences in the Asia-Pacific. The Institute has contacts and collaborations with many think-tanks and research institutes in Asia, Europe and the United States. The Institute has also participated in research projects funded by the Ford Foundation and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. The Institute serves as the Secretariat for the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP), Singapore. Through these activities, the Institute aims to develop and nurture a network of researchers whose collaborative efforts will yield new insights into security issues of interest to Singapore and the region.

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ABSTRACT Southeast Asian states have, in recent years, engaged in force modernization programs to varying degrees. Although the situation does not comply with a strict definition of an arms race, it is also obvious that what Southeast Asian armed forces are doing is not maintaining the military status quo, as they are enhancing existing capabilities as well as acquiring new capabilities. A complex myriad of factors account for the phenomenon of military modernization and arms build-up in the region, such as prestige, corruption, supply side factors, economic growth, self-reliance in the context of a perceived reduction of the US commitment to the region, new requirements arising from EEZ surveillance and protection, the impact of domestic factors, inter-state tensions and the broadening of regional security concerns. Analysts fear that military modernization efforts could be potentially destabilizing, especially given the presence of inter-state tensions and contentious bilateral issues. The regional arms build-up has also placed constraints on multilateral security cooperation due to its reinforcement of mutual suspicions over each others intentions. This points to the need for arms control and other political and diplomatic measures, such as confidence-building measures (CBMs) which could lessen tensions and put a brake on the competitive arms build-up. The most promising so far have been CBMs in the form of military multilateral exercises and exchanges promoted by benign outside powers, such as RIMPAC and Cobra Gold, and the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA). Such military-level CBMs must be expanded considerably to enhance functional multilateral cooperation, lower mutual mistrust, and focus attention on common security threats, such as those emanating from regional flashpoints involving China, emerging non-traditional security threats such as arms smuggling, illegal migration and piracy, as well as humanitarian intervention and peacekeeping, such as that carried out in East Timor from 1999. In the post-11 September era, the obvious need for multilateral security cooperation to counter the threat emanating from transnational terrorism in Southeast Asia is also an emergent factor that could provide the necessary political will towards overcoming barriers of mutual suspicions. The opportunities provided by such an impetus should not be missed.

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BIOGRAPHY Dr Andrew Tan is Assistant Professor at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He holds a PhD (Sydney), Masters (Cambridge) and bachelors and honours (political science) degrees from the National University of Singapore. He is a frequent speaker both locally and internationally, and is consulted on regional security issues by governments and the international media. His research interests are conflict in Southeast Asia (terrorism, insurgency, inter-state tensions and force modernization), and security issues in the Asia-

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Pacific. He is the author of Intra-ASEAN Tensions (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2000), Armed Rebellion in Southeast Asia: Persistence and Implications (Canberra, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, 2000), Singapore-Malaysia Relations: Troubled Past and Uncertain Future? (Hull: Hull University, 2001) and Domestic Determinants of Singapores Security Policy (Hawaii: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2001). His major co-edited work include Non-Traditional Security Issues in Southeast Asia, Seeking Alternative Perspectives on Southeast Asia, and The New Terrorism: Anatomy, Trends and Counter-Strategies. His articles and book reviews have appeared, or are forthcoming, in Contemporary Southeast Asia, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Terrorism and Political Violence, Panorama, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, International Affairs and Harvard Asia Quarterly.

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FORCE MODERNISATION TRENDS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Southeast Asian analysts have observed that there has been very clear evidence of a military

build-up in the region.1 All countries in the region have engaged in force modernization

programs to varying degrees, although this does not equate with military effectiveness.

While the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) has had varying effects on the regions

military capabilities, it is important to note that much more than the mere acquisition of

modern weapons systems is required for a true RMA to take place. For instance, there is also

the need for integrated logistical capabilities, joint force doctrines, a very high-level of

technical support and training and C4ISR capabilities. It is evident that few countries in the

region have the technical and economic capacity to implement a true RMA, nor do they all

want to, given the local conditions and the continued salience of internal security threats. In

addition, any net assessment will require a number of other factors to be taken into account,

such as the degree of military preparedness, natural resources, industrial capacity, national

morale and diplomacy.2 However, this is not within the scope of this study.

This study will focus on an examination of the evident phenomenon of force modernization

in Southeast Asia. It will identify salient trends, examine the factors behind force

modernization and assess the implications of current force modernization programs on

regional security. A number of questions will clarify the salient issues: What is the evidence

for an arms build-up in the region? How do we make sense of the regional arms build-up is

it an arms race? What are the force modernization trends in Southeast Asia? What are the

factors which might account for this arms build-up? What has been the impact of the 1997

regional economic crisis on arms modernization?

Regional Arms Modernization

There is strong evidence of a concerted push towards military modernization in Southeast

Asia since 1975. The military build-ups, particularly on the part of the ASEAN states picked

up momentum in the 1980s and 1990s. However, they have since slowed but not halted due

to the financial crisis that afflicted the region since 1997. 1 See, for instance, Tim Huxley and Susan Willett, Arming East Asia (Adelphi Paper, International Institute of Strategic Studies, London, 1999), and Desmond Ball, Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific Region, International Security, vol.18, no.3 (Winter 1993/94). 2 Hans J Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace (New York: Alfred Knopf, 1949), p.74.

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A comparison of the military capabilities measured according to the numbers of military

personnel and the number of major combat systems fielded in 1974 (just before the defeat of

the US-supported Saigon regime) and in 1998 (just when the economic crisis affected

Southeast Asia) will provide a clear indication of the trend towards a general military build-

up in Southeast Asia.

According to Table 1 (compiled from data derived from The Military Balance 1974-75), the

then ASEAN states of Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines could be described

as militarily weak, with small numbers of major weapon systems. Thailand was an exception

given its proximity to Indochina where the Vietnam War was still raging. Moreover, as the

frontline state, it had the support of the US, which provided substantial military aid, including

the provision of military hardware.

TABLE 1

Comparative Military Capabilities of the Southeast Asian States (1974)

Country Military

Manpower (1)

Tanks APCs 155mm Howitzers

Missile Craft

Combat Helicopters

Combat Aircraft

SPORE 52,000 75 ? 0 6 0 65 MALAYSIA

92,000 0 700 0 8 0 36

INDONESIA

270,000 ? ? 0 ...(2) 0 ...(2)

THAILAND

396,000 195 200 12 0 0 105

PHILIPPINE

274,000 8 20 5 0 0 36

BRUNEI (3)

... ... ... ... ... ... ...

N.VIETNAM

...(4) ...(4) ...(4) ...(4) ...(4) ...(4) ...(4)

BURMA 159,000 0 ? 0 0 0 11 LAOS 63,000 10 ? ? 0 0 81(5) CAMBODIA

220,000 ? 175 20 0 16 64

(1) including reserves (2) the large Soviet-supplied naval and air force complement existed on paper only, as many were delivered before 1965 and were by 1974 running down or non-operational due to a lack of spares.

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(3) Brunei became independent in 1984; in 1974, its defence was Britains responsibility. (4) Vietnam was still at war in 1974, making a meaningful comparison difficult given the scale of the conflict; the unification in 1975 was the result of the victory of the North. (5) Laos was still at war at this stage, and most of the combat aircraft consisted of US-supplied T-28 ground attack aircraft used against the Pathet Lao forces, which eventually gained power in 1975. Source: The Military Balance 1974-1975 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 1974)

TABLE 2 Comparative Military Capabilities of the ASEAN States (1998)

Country Military

Manpower (1)

Tanks APCs(2) 155mm Howitzers

Missile Craft

Combat Helicopters

Combat Aircraft

SPORE 323,000 410 1074 123 24 20 157 MALAYSIA

150,000 26 1210 12 14 0 89

INDONESIA

876,000 455 696 0 14 0 91

THAILAND

506,000 787 1117 218 16 0 206

PHILIPPINE

249,000 41 569 12 0 99 39

BRUNEI 6,000 16 52 0 3 6 0 VIETNAM

484,000(3)

1935 1500 ? (4) 11 43 201

MYANMAR

435,000 231 385 0 6 22 121

LAOS 29,000 55 70 ? 0 0 26 KAMPUCHE

139,000 110 240 0 0 0 24

(1) including reserves (2) including armoured reconnaissance vehicles (3) in addition, there are 3-4 million reserves (4) Vietnam has 2,300 artillery pieces of different makes, including unspecified numbers of 155mm and 175mm howitzers. Source: The Military Balance 1998-1999 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 1998) By 1998 (immediately after the 1997 regional economic crisis), the situation had changed.

ASEAN had expanded to include Brunei (which joined in 1984), as well as Vietnam,

Myanmar, Laos and Kampuchea. A cursory comparison will indicate an increase in all

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categories, such as military personnel, tanks, armored personnel carriers (APCs), medium-

range howitzers, missile-armed naval vessels, combat helicopters and combat aircraft.

This phenomenon, namely, the concerted regional arms build-up, has caused some to express

concerns about the prospects of an arms race in the region.3 However, security planners and

decision-makers in the region argue that this is merely a process of arms modernization,

pointing to the antiquated nature of many of the weapons systems in their existing force

structures, which were inherited from their former colonial masters.4

Yet, there are examples where arms race dynamics seem to be present. For instance, the

initial acquisition of F-16 combat aircraft by Singapore, then Indonesia and Thailand, as well

as Malaysias subsequent interest in acquiring an advanced strike fighter, point to the need to

counter or at least not be left behind by ones neighbors.5

Is there an arms race in Southeast Asia? According to Colin Gray, there are four basic

conditions for an arms race:

1. There must be two or more parties, conscious of their antagonism,

2. They must structure their armed forces with attention to the probable effectiveness

of the forces in combat with, or as a deterrent to, the other arms race participants,

3. They must compete in terms of quantity and quality, and

4. There must be rapid increases in quantity and /or improvements in quality.6

Gray has pointed out that it is possible for arms races to eventually develop even in the

absence of any serious political antagonisms. A fairly autonomous arms increase, undertaken

for a variety of reasons, might be matched by a fairly disinterested party solely as a

precautionary move, and thus spark off a cycle of close or intermittent armament interactions.

Previously unacknowledged political antagonisms might then occur.

3 See, for instance, press reports such as Asias Arms Race, The Economist, 20 February 1993, p.19. 4 For instance, Malaysias navy chief Dato Abu Bakar, in explaining the sudden urgency of Malaysia in buying submarines, dismissed the notion of an arms race with Singapore, saying that its submarine purchase was prompted by a need to replace obsolescent assets, pointing out that some naval vessels were over 30 years old. See Navy to Acquire Submarines, Straits Times, 14 October 1999, p.27, and KL Navy Waiting for Approval to Buy Submarine, Straits Times, 9 May 2000, p.30. 5 Tai Ming Cheung, Shoulder to Shoulder: ASEAN Members Strengthen Ties, Far Eastern Economic Review, 22 March 1990, pp.25-26. 6 Colin Gray, The Arms Race Phenomenon, World Politics, vol.24, no.1, 1972, p.41.

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Indeed, while arms races are evidently run between mutually perceived enemies, arms racing

behavior, that is, a process of interactive or competitive arms acquisitions, can also be

discerned among even formal allies, whether out of prestige or the need to maintain a

relationship of equality. This occurs even if the impetus for military modernization comes

from a variety of factors and is not aimed at any particular state.

This interactive nature of arms acquisitions, coupled with conflicting claims over territory

and other issues, could result in the security dilemma, conflict spirals, heightened tensions

and eventually lead to conflict, thereby destroying the very security that military

modernization and arms build-ups were meant to ensure.

Tables 3 9 will examine the force modernization programs of key Southeast Asian states.

A detailed of these programs will help to identify some general trends.

Singapore

Singapores economic importance and military capability rank it among Southeast Asias

middle powers despite its small size and population. Unique among the ASEAN states,

Singapore has ignored the economic crisis affecting the region since 1997, and has continued

its military build-up, a relentless process that began in 1965 following Singapores

independence. Singapore fears sudden political developments in the region that might

require its armed forces to be used either as a deterrent, or as a means of national defence.

This indicates that Singapores leadership perceives that under certain circumstance, conflict

could in fact occur, and military defence capabilities must be credible at all times. The fact

that it takes a very long time to build up a military capability, especially if that military

capability has to be relative to potential adversaries as well as unforeseen enemies, has meant

that Singapores military development has been continuous and sustained. This also reflects

Singapores basic insecurity as a city-state in a volatile region.

In recent years, Singapore has drawn upon the US experience in the first Gulf War, and has

noted the RMA debate in the United States, which has touted the new information, sensing,

precision attack, stealth and aerial warfare technologies employed in the Gulf as being the

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precursor of a fundamental change in the way wars will be fought.7 Singapore has taken note

of these developments, and is paying special attention to enhancing its command, control,

communication and intelligence systems in order to fully exploit the modern weapons

systems that it possesses or will soon acquire. As the Chief of the Defence Force, General

Ng Tat Chung, explained, the impact of the RMA within the SAF has been most prominent

in the area of Integrated Knowledge-based Command and Control the central idea is the

superior collection and organization of knowledge to provide dominant situation awareness to

all levels of command to achieve more effective command and control of forces and the

precise application of effects.8

The inventory of the Singapore Armed Forces is listed in Table 3.

TABLE 3

SINGAPORES DEFENCE FORCES Army 50,000 active troops, with 300,000 reserves Tanks: 450 (100 Centurion MBTs, 350 AMX13 light tanks) APCs: 1,574 (M113, Commando, AMX10P, AMX-10 PAC90, IFV 40/50, IFV 25) 155mm howitzers: 169 (38 Soltam M-71S, 16 M114A1, 45 M68, 52 FH88, 18 FH2000) Other artillery: LG1 105mm, 120mm and 160mm mortars Anti-Tank missiles: Milan, Armbrust, Spike On order: more locally-made FH2000 52-calibre 155mm self-propelled howitzers, Bionix AFVs Navy Missile-equipped naval vessels: 24 (6 Victory corvettes, 6 Sea Wolf missile boats, 12 Fearless corvettes) Submarines: 4 Challenger (ex-Swedish A12) Minehunters: 4 Landsort minehunters Amphibious: 4 Endurance-class LPDs, 1 Perseverance (ex-Britain) LST On Order: 6 Delta-class Lafayette stealth missile frigates Air Force 40 A4 Skyhawk fighter aircraft 37 F5 Tiger II fighter aircraft

7 See Preparing to Fight the Digital War, Asian Defence Journal, February 1996, p.20. See also The Future of Warfare, in The Economist, 8 March 1997, pp.21-24, and George Friedman and Meredith Friedman, The Future of War (New York: Crown, 1996). 8 As quoted in an interview published in Asian Defence Journal, July-August 2003, p.14.

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8 RF-5E reconnaissance fighter aircraft 7 F16A/B fighter aircraft 42 F16C/D fighter aircraft 20 AS550 helicopter gunships 20 AH-64D Apache helicopter gunships 55 transport helicopters (UH1H, AB-205A, AS-332M, AS-532UL) 6 Chinook CH-47D helicopters 4 KC130B air tankers 4 KC-135 air tankers 4 Hawkeye E2C AEW 1 MR squadron with 5 Fokker 50 1 RPV squadron with Searcher and Chukar 3 RPV SAM: Hawk, Rapier, Mistral, RBS70, Igla On order: 8 Chinook CH-47SD helicopters, 20 F16C/D fighter aircraft Sources: Various, including The Military Balance 2003-2004 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2003), Asian Military Review, February 2001, Asian Defence Journal (various issues) and Janes Defence Weekly (various issues). Singapore has evidently had the political will and the funds to continue a steady military

expansion program that has inexorably enabled Singapore to become the militarily most

proficient, even powerful state, in Southeast Asia. Already the most sophisticated in

Southeast Asia, Singapores airforce is still the subject of continued modernization. The

F16C/D Block 52 force already numbers 42, with 20 more on order. The entire A4 Skyhawk

and F5E/F jetfighter force will be replaced by up to 48 fourth-generation combat aircraft,

with the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, F18 Super Hornet, upgraded F-15E, Block 60

F-16, and Sukhoi Su-35 all in contention.9

Separately, Singapore has been accorded observer status for the US Joint Strike Fighter

program, the JSF being seen as a possible replacement for the F16C/D.10 Singapore is the

launch customer for the Boeing CH-47SD heavy helicopter, for which it has ordered 8.11

Singapore has also started collaboration with Israel over the development of micro-satellites

for reconnaissance and surveillance purposes.12

9 Asian Defence Journal, August 2001, p.12, Singapore: Deconstruction Forges Ahead, Janes Defence Weekly, 27 June 2001, and David Saw, The Current Scene Regional Armed Forces in 2003, Asian Military Review, February 2003, p.32. 10 See Singapore: Deconstruction Forges Ahead, Janes Defence Weekly, 27 June 2001. 11 Singapore Wants More Chinooks, Flight International, 30 June 7 July 1999, p.19. 12 Micool Brooke, Fortress Singapore: A Key Player in Security, Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, February 2001, p. 66. See also 2007 Target for Launch of First Singapore-made Micro-satellite, in NTU News (in-house staff journal of the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore), January March 2002, no.43, p.1.

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Its navy has seen rapid modernization in the past few years. With 6 DCN Lafayette stealth

frigates of 3,600 tonne displacement on order, it will soon have a true blue-water capability

with which to defend its sealanes of communications.13 It is buying naval helicopters for

both the frigates and the four formidable newly-built Endurance-class landing ship tanks

(LSTs). The leading candidates, for an initial order of 6-8 helicopters, are the AS532 Cougar,

SH-70(N) Seahawk and NH-90.14 The four ex-Swedish submarines will be the subject of a

replacement by modern submarines beginning 2005.15 The candidates for replacement are

said to include the German U-212 class, the new Viking class being designed for Swedish

and Norwegian navies and the French-Spanish Scorpene class.16

The army has introduced the locally built Bionix infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), which will

eventually replace the M113 APCs.17 A recent major purchase has been the Dornier foldable

bridge systems from Germany.18 There are plans to buy main battle tanks (MBTs), with the

front-runner said to be the French Leclerc MBT.19 While locally made 52-calibre 155mm

self-propelled howitzers are being procured, there also exist plans to eventually acquire

multiple rocket launching systems (MRLS), the latter possibly given impetus by Malaysias

acquisition of such systems from Brazil.20

Malaysia

The Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) has had vast experience in counter-insurgency warfare,

having fought a stubborn communist insurgency in Malaya and the East Malaysian states for

some 40 years. In addition, it had to deal with Indonesian commando infiltration and

sabotage during the Confrontation from 1963 to 1965. Indeed, its jungle warfare school in

Johore is widely regarded as the best of its kind in the world.

13 Republic of Singapore Navy Today, Asian Defence Journal, May 1999, p.20, and David Saw, The Republic of Singapore Navy The State of Growth, Asian Military Review, My 2001, p.17. 14 Singapore Progresses Naval Helicopter Project, Janes Defence Weekly, 20 August 2003, p.14. 15 Patrick Bright, ASEAN Naval Forces Overview, Naval Forces, February 2001, p.45 16 Singapores Navy Takes Shape, Asian Defence Journal, May 2003, p.12. 17 Singapore Armed with Bionix, Janes Defence Weekly, 25 August 1999, p.14. 18 Asian Defence Yearbook 2000-2001, p.99. 19 Micool Brooke, Fortress Singapore: A Key Player in Security, Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, February 2001, p. 66. 20 Janes Defence Weekly, 27 June 2001, p.20.

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However, on-going disputes with the Philippines over Sabah, the British withdrawal in 1971,

the communist victory in Indochina in 1975, the US withdrawal from mainland Southeast

Asia from the 1970s under the Nixon Doctrine and growing recognition of Malaysias

vulnerabilities stemming from its exceptionally long coastlines and its oil and gas fields both

offshore, all contributed to a fundamental re-orientation of the MAF from counter-insurgency

to conventional military capabilities.

Beginning with the PERISTA modernization program in 1979, Malaysia has made a

determined effort to build up Malaysia's conventional capabilities.

Table 4 below lists the inventory of the Malaysian armed forces, indicating its growing

conventional capabilities.

TABLE 4 MALAYSIAS DEFENCE FORCES

Army 80,000 military personnel, with 60-70,000 reserves Tanks: 26 Scorpion APC: 1,210 (KIFV, Commando, Stormer, Condor, M3 Panhard, Sibmas, AML-60/90, Ferret) 155mm howitzers: 12 FH70 Other artillery: Model 56 105mm, M102A1, light mortars, Astros MRLS Anti-Tank missiles: SS-11, Eryx On order: 211 ACV-300 IFVs, 22 Denel G5 155mm SP howitzers, 48 PT-91M Main Battle Tanks, AT-7 Saxhorn anti-tank missiles Navy Missile-equipped naval vessels: 2 Leiku frigates (Exocet SSM and Seawolf SAM), 2 FS1500 frigates (Exocet SSM), 4 Laksamana (Assad) missile corvettes (OTO Melara SSM), 8 Spica/Combattante II missile boats (Exocet SSM) Minehunters: 4 Lerici minehunters On order: 6 Meko A-100 OPVs, 1 Agosta (training) submarine, 2 Scorpene submarines, 6 Super Lynx and 6 Fennec helicopters Air Force 17 MiG29 jetfighters 8 F18D Hornet jetfighters 13 F5E jetfighters 25 Hawk jet trainers/ground attack 2 RF-5E reconnaissance jetfighters

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9 MB-339, 52 Pilatus PC-7 trainers/ground-attack 3 KC-130H air tankers 4 Beech King Air B200T MR RPV: Eagle 150 SAM: Javelin, Starburst, Anza On order: 18 Su-30 jetfighters, 11 A109M helicopters Sources: various, including The Military Balance 2003-2004 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2003), Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, June 2003, Asian Military Review, February 2001, Asian Defence Journal (various issues) and Janes Defence Weekly (various issues). Some security analysts have commented on Malaysia's apparent concerns over Singapore's

conventional military capabilities. Commenting on the arms build-up in Southeast Asia, one

analyst noted that "defence planners are consequently paying close attention to the

composition of their neighbours' new arsenals, and any upgrading of one is likely to be

followed by an upgrading of the others".21 Thus, Singapore's declaration to purchase F16

jetfighters in 1983 was followed by a similar decision by Indonesia, which was described at

the time as a "costly exercise in keeping up with the Joneses".22 Malaysia then considered

buying Tornado fighter-bombers, but eventually settled on a mixed F18 Hornet and MiG-29

jetfighter purchase in 1994.23 Defence Minister Tun Najib was then able to declare that

Malaysia was now "on an equal standing with its neighbours in terms of military strength".24

The economic crisis of 1997 resulted in Malaysia putting on hold plans to buy air refueling

aircraft, helicopter gunships, AEW aircraft, submarines, Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), new

Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs), modern artillery (including multiple rocket launching

systems) and had a requirement for some 27 Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs). Security

analysts have commented that many of these planned purchases are aimed, at least partially,

at countering similar capabilities that Singapore possesses.25

With economic recovery in sight, Defence Minister Najib announced in February 2002 that

Malaysia would resume its arms modernization programme. He announced that Malaysia 21 Sanjiv Prakash, "New Teeth, New Words," Defence and Foreign Affairs, November 1990, p.14. 22 Defence and Foreign Affairs, April 1986, p.32. 23 Radio Moscow World Service (Moscow, in English), 1110 GMT, 13 June 1994, in BBC/SWB FE/2023 B/5 (11), 16 June 1994. 24 Asian Defence Journal, August 1994, p.86. 25 For instance, according to Janes Defence Weekly, the acquisition of a mid-air refuelling capability appears aimed at balancing neighbouring Singapores fleet (of air refuelling tankers). See Malaysia Chases Others in Refueling Capabilities, Janes Defence Weekly, 22 January 1997, p.12.

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would spend RM1 billion to buy 48 new Polish-made T-91 Main Battle Tanks.26 This was

followed, in April 2002, by the signing of a RM300 million deal to buy Steyr assault rifles

and mobile military bridges.27 In addition, they have ordered 211 Turkish-made Infantry

Fighting Vehicles (IFVs).28 The army has also made some huge strides in improving its

artillery capabilities with its order for South African-made Denel G5 155mm self-propelled

artillery and Brazilian-made MRLS systems.29 In May 2003, Malaysia placed an order for 18

Sukhoi SU-30 jet-fighters for RM6 billion.30 This may be followed by the purchase of

Russian-made Mi-17 helicopters, although an order for 11 Agusta 109M surveillance

helicopters was placed in October 2003.31 There may also be a follow-on order for F18

Super Hornets to replace the current 8 F18 Hornets but political sensitivities following US

military action in Iraq could make this difficult. The locally built Eagle UAV is also about to

enter production.32 In June 2003, Malaysia announced that it will spend US$1 billion to

acquire at least 4 Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) aircraft, with the leading

contenders, in order of cost, being the Boeing 737 AEW&C, the Grumman E-2C Hawkeye

and the Brazilian Embraer EMB-145.33

Naval modernization has also proceeded apace. In June 2002, Malaysia signed an agreement

to buy 2 French-made Scorpene submarines and an Agosta training submarine for RM3.4

billion.34 Malaysia will also soon begin building 6 Meko OPVs, a fleet which will eventually

number 27.35 It has also placed an initial order for 6 Super Lynx and 6 Fennec naval

helicopters. The navy is also asking for Landing Platform Docks (LPDs) in consideration of

Malaysias active overseas peacekeeping operations.36 The resumption of the arms

modernization programme clearly suggests a strong determination to develop an all-round

modern conventional capability.

26 Straits Times, 9 April 2002, p.A8. 27 Straits Times, 10 April 2002, p.A7. 28 Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, June 2003, p.53. 29 Straits Times, 30 October 2000, p.25. 30 Straits Times, 20 May 2003. 31 Asian Defence Journal, September 2003, p.9, and KL Signs $220 Million Deal for 11 Army Choppers, Straits Times, p.A15. 32 Asian Defence Journal, July 2001, p.16. 33 Straits Times, 3 June 2003. 34 New Straits Times, 6 June 2003, and Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, June 2003, p.52.. 35 Patrick Bright, ASEAN Naval Forces Overview, Naval Forces, February 2001, p.48. 36 Asian Military Review, May 2001, p.8, Asian Defence Journal, April 2003, p.12, and Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, June 2003, p.53.

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The end-result of the renewed arms modernization drive will be a more proficient MAF with

enhanced maritime security and power projection capabilities. Indeed, these capabilities are

important because patrolling the long coastlines and defending extensive maritime territories

have presented daunting security challenges, particularly since the US retrenchment from the

region after the end of the Vietnam War. The East Malaysian states are about 600 km from

West Malaysia at the closest point and some 2,200 km at the most distant. These have been

complicated by the potentially serious boundary disputes around the Spratley Islands, the

presence of important offshore oilfields, increased concern over acts of piracy in the environs

of the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca, as well as refugee and migrant inflows,

notably illegal immigrants from Indonesian and refugees from the conflict in the southern

Philippines.

The contiguity with a number of ASEAN states (sharing land and/or sea borders with

Thailand, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines) and the presence of territorial

disputes with all of its neighbouring states have added to the security challenges facing

Malaysia. Whilst Malaysia would like to be prepared for all contingencies, the myriad

security challenges that Malaysia faces thus provides a greater impetus for defence

modernization and power projection capabilities than any singular obsession with Singapore.

Thailand

Thailand, the so-called frontline state, undertook a comprehensive military build-up in the

aftermath of the communist victories in Indochina in 1975. Thailands military

modernization efforts was galvanized by this event, especially as the United States had stood

by and allowed the communists to achieve victory over the pro-US regimes in South

Vietnam, Laos and Kampuchea. It raised immediate fears of a domino effect, with Vietnam

conceivably undermining Thailand through its support of internal communist rebellion,

something it could easily do using the long land borders between Indochina and Thailand.

The impetus towards military modernisation was boosted by the Vietnamese invasion of

Kampuchea in December 1978.

There were also domestic political factors to be considered. The violent October 1976

military coup that ended the brief era of democracy in Thai politics resulted in thousands of

left-wing students taking to the jungle to join the Communist Party of Thailand in its

12

revolutionary struggle. Various services and constituents of the armed forces also vied for

increases in their share of resources, a result of fierce political infighting and inter-service, as

well as intra-service rivalries. Indeed, one general once observed that "the internal struggle in

the armed forces is much tougher than war with the enemy".37

The military build-up has, over time, achieved a momentum of its own. Since the early

1990s, attention has shifted to improving the navy, which has extended its EEZ patrol

capabilities, with a number of new patrol craft ordered. The acquisition of an aircraft carrier,

the Chakri Narvebet (delivered in 1997), is indicative of the ambitions of Thailand in

developing a blue-water naval capability that could counter India on its Indian Ocean

seaboard, and Vietnam and Malaysia in the Gulf of Siam. Thailands inventory is listed in

Table 5.

TABLE 5

THAILANDS DEFENCE FORCES Army 190,000 military personnel, with 200,000 reserves Tanks: 793 (50 Type-69, 105 M48A5, 178 M60A1, 154 Scorpion, 200 M41, 106 Stingray) APCs: 1,035 (340 M113, 162 V150 Commando, 18 Condor, 450 Type-85, 32 Shorland Mk3, 33 LVTP-7) 155mm howitzers: 218 (56 M114, 62 M198, 32 M71, 42 GHN-45/A1, 20 M109A2, 12 GC-45) Other artillery: LG1 105mm, M101/M102 105mm, M168A2 105mm, Type 59 130mm, 81mm, 107mm, 120mm mortars Anti-Tank missiles: TOW, Dragon Navy 1 Aircraft Carrier (Chakri Naruebet, with 9 Harriar V/STOL fighter-bombers, 6 S-70B Seahawk helicopters) Missile-equipped naval vessels: 16 (4 Jianghu frigates, 2 Naresuan frigates, 2 Knox frigates, 2 Rattanakosin corvettes, 3 Ratcharit missile boats and 3 Prabparapak missile boats) Minehunters: 7 LSTs: 7 On Order: 2 Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs)

37 Lt-Gen Harn Leenanong, former Commanding General of the Thai Fourth Army, as quoted in Asian Defence Journal, April 1985, p.15.

13

Air Force 13 F5A/B jetfighters 50 F16A/B jetfighters 36 F5 Tiger II fighter-bombers 34 L-39ZA training/ground attack 3 IAI-201 ELINT 18 OV-10C, 3 RF-5A reconnaissance aircraft 20 Alpha jet trainers 58 MR/ASW aircraft (various makes: P3T Orion, UP-3T, Do-228, F-27, S2F, Cessna T337 Skymaster, A-7E, TA-7C, O-1G, U-17B, N-24A Nomad) SAM: Redeye, HN-5A, Aspide, Blowpipe, RBS-70, Starburst Sources: Various, including The Military Balance 2003-2004 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2003), Asian Military Review, February 2001, Asian Defence Journal (various issues) and Janes Defence Weekly (various issues).

The Thai armed forces are presently still suffering from the effects of the 1997 economic

crisis. At the same time, measures are being taken to reform the armed forces. For instance,

steps are being taken to weed out endemic corruption and to make it a better-trained and more

professional force.38 All three services will be downsized, the army by up to 46,000 troops

by 2010. While a shopping list exists for artillery, IFVs, tanks, submarines, fighter aircraft

and frigates, the priority today is the restructuring of the armed forces. Instead of buying new

equipment, it is concentrating on the cheaper option of either upgrading existing equipment

or buying used weapons systems. For instance, instead of buying the latest F16C/D

jetfighter, it has opted for another squadron of the older and cheaper F16A/B, with new

AMRAAM missiles.39 The existing F16s will be upgraded with new avionics.40 One news

report commented that an interactive element was present: Malaysias taste for Russian arms

and its squadron of MiG-29s worry Thai air force chiefs the Thais are definitely concerned

over losing pace.41

Elbit Systems of Israel will also upgrade Thailands F5 Tiger jetfighters. There are plans for

80 HU-1H helicopters to be re-conditioned. The air force is acquiring very little new

equipment, although new Black Hawk helicopters would be gradually purchased at a rate of 2

38 A Fresh Approach, Asiaweek, 19 November 1999, p.45, and Thai Army Turning into Leaner and Meaner Force, Straits Times, 20 October 2001, p.A11. 39 Straits Times Interactive 18 July 2001, and Straits Times, 22 January 2000, p.36. 40 David Fullbrook, The Royal Thai Air Force Upgrading the Force Capability, Asian Military Review, February 2003, p.35. 41 Thailand Sees New Era of Arms Purchases, Straits Times, 24 March 2000, p.64.

14

a year from 2001 to 2011.42 The army has also gone for used equipment having apparently

all but decided to buy 160 used Swiss-made Pz68/88 tanks.43 The navy, on the other hand,

has gone for new albeit limited numbers of weapon systems, having placed orders for 2 new

OPVs from China and plans to acquire more. It is also planning to purchase the first two of

12-20 Super Lynx naval helicopters.44 While there were plans to lease, and later purchase,

submarines, these plans have been held in abeyance due to the sheer cost.45 The aircraft

carrier, Chakri Naruebet, will however be upgraded with more landing aids and better

radars.46

Indonesia

The heightened sense of insecurity stemming from the communist victories in Indochina in

1975, as well as the poor showing of the Indonesian military in overcoming a small ill-

equipped Fretilin force when it invaded East Timor in 1976 provided the impetus for military

modernization, although it must be noted that this has been incremental and gradual in nature.

Moreover, since the declaration of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the 1980s,

Indonesia's military modernization has concentrated on improving its maritime security.

Indonesia is a far-flung archipelago, with sealanes and vast waterways to patrol, a daunting

task indeed. Indonesia has thus focused its attention in recent years on developing the

necessary conventional naval, air force and rapid deployment capabilities to patrol and

defend its huge archipelagic waters and its EEZ.

Table 6 below shows the inventory of the Indonesian armed forces, although it must be

pointed out that severe maintenance problems have meant that many weapon systems are not

actually operational due to a lack of spare parts, partly as a result of the US arms embargo on

Indonesia.47

42 Asian Defence Yearbook 2000-2001, pp.112-113. 43 Asian Defence Journal, July August 2003, p.24. 44 Naval Forces, February 2001, p. 48, Asian Military Review, May 2001, p.6, and May 2003, p.15. 45 Asian Defence Yearbook 2000-2001, p.113, and David Fullbrook, The Royal Thai Navy: Building the Force for the Future, in Asian Military Review, May 2003, p.16. 46 David Fullbrook, The Royal Thai Navy: Building the Force for the Future, in Asian Military Review, May 2003, pp.13-15. 47 Janes Defence Weekly, 3 September 2003, p.14, Straits Times, 5 December 2001, p.A8.

15

TABLE 6 INDONESIAS DEFENCE FORCES

Army 230,000 military personnel, with 400,000 reserves Tanks: 455 (275 AMX13, 50 Scorpion, 130 PT-76) APCs: 731 (AMX-VCI, Saracen, Commando, Ranger, Stormer, BTR-40, BTR-50, BRDM, AMX-10 PAC90, AMX-10P, Saladin, Ferret, VBL) Artillery: M48 76mm, M101 105mm, LG-1 Mk II 105mm, M-38 122mm, 81mm and 120mm mortars Navy Missile-equipped naval vessels: 14 (6 Van Speijk frigates, 3 Fatahillah corvettes, 1 Hajar Dewantara corvette, 4 Dagger fast missile boats) OPVs: 7 patrol frigates, 16 Parchim corvettes, 8 Lurssen 57m craft Submarines: 2 Type 209 Amphibious: 26 LSTs Minehunters/sweepers: 12 Air Force 2 Su-20 fighter-bombers 2 Su-27 jetfighters 14 A4 Skyhawk fighter-bombers 10 F16A/B jetfighters 12 F5 Tiger II fighter-bombers 42 Hawk jet trainers/ground attack aircraft 12 OV10F reconnaissance aircraft 3 Boeing 737-200 MR 2 KC-130B air tankers 26 Super Puma helicopters 63 transport aircraft (various makes: C130, L100-30, B-707, Cessna 207, Cessna 401, C-402, F27-400M, F28-1000, F28-3000, NC-212, Skyvan, CN-235-110) SAM: Rapier, RBS-70 Source: Various, including The Military Balance 2003-2004 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2003), Asian Military Review, February 2001, Asian Defence Journal (various issues) and Janes Defence Weekly (various issues). In 1997, an agreement to purchase 12 SU-30K fighter-bombers and 8 Mi-17 helicopters was

signed with Russia. This was subsequently cancelled due to the economic crisis. In May

2002, both countries, however, agreed to continue to cooperate in defence and trade through a

16

counter-trade system.48 In 2003, on a visit to Russia, President Megawati agreed to the initial

purchase of 2 SU-20, 2 SU-27 fighter-bombers and 2 Mi-35 helicopters to upgrade the air

force. Indonesia hopes to purchase up to 48 SU-20 and SU-27 jetfighters by the end of the

decade, although funding is clearly be an issue.49 The initial deal would be paid for partly

with commodities such as palm oil, coffee and rubber, with the deal said to be worth US$192

million. This deal has been mired in controversy, with charges that it violated defence and

budgetary laws as well as banking procedures. Various anti-Megawati elements in

Parliament have announced a special team to investigate the purchase for alleged

irregularities, dubbing the episode as Sukhoigat.50

For its size, Indonesia has appeared relaxed in its defence build-up. Although it is clear that

Indonesia would not want to lag behind Singapore's military capabilities, it has not felt

sufficiently threatened by it to embark on a concerted programme to redress a perceived

military imbalance. In comparison with its neighbours, Indonesia devotes the lowest

percentage of its GDP, about 1.5% on average, on defence in the 1990s, which demonstrates

its preoccupation with internal security and also its philosophy of security through economic

development.51

The Indonesian armed forces has few resources for modernization given the current political

and economic climate in the country. However, the construction of a major naval base at

Teluk Rate in southern Sumatra is proceeding. The Indonesian marine corps is also set to

almost double in size from 13,000 to 23,000 in the near future.52 The emphasis, once funding

can be found, will be on naval modernization and expansion, with plans for new LSTs to

support the expansion of the marine corps. The navy is also aware of the need to improve

EEZ protection and to counter piracy. There are thus also plans for new patrol boats and

OPVs to be procured.53 The Indonesian military also announced, in September 2003 that it

planned to buy 2 submarines, 4 destroyers and 2 minesweepers between 2005 and 2011,

although it is not clear where the funding would come from.54 Apart from these limited plans

and aspirations, funding for any major military modernization program will remain tight in

48 To Sukhoi or Not to Sukhoi, Indonesia Digest, No.24.03, 6 July 2003. 49 Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, June 2003, p.11. 50 Straits Times, 5 July 2003. 51 Straits Times, 15 September 1994. 52 Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, February-March 2000, p.29. 53 Naval Forces, February 2001, p.48. 54 Jakarta Warships Plan to Give Navy New Life, Straits Times, 20 September 2003, p.A16.

17

the foreseeable future. This is due to the ongoing economic problems in Indonesia and also

to the declining prominence of the military, which has lost its dominant position in the

political life of the country in the post-Suharto era.

Myanmar

The situation of almost benign neglect of the military under General Ne Win changed when

the military took power in 1988. Soon after this, it implemented an ambitious program of

military modernization and arms procurement in order to address various weaknesses, such as

a lack of modern weapons systems and the small size of the armed forces.

Myanmars military inventory is listed below in Table 7. It is clear that despite the massive

military modernization and expansion program launched after 1988, it has been a

quantitative, not qualitative expansion. The relatively small numbers of major weapons

systems employed, together with their generally low level of technology, means that while

Myanmars armed forces has been greatly strengthened vis-a-vis the ethnic insurgents

(indeed, it has managed to finally pacify or defeat even the largest groups, such as the

Karens), it is paradoxically weak compared to its neighbors. This indicates that Myanmars

defence priorities are mainly internal; regime survival in the face of domestic political

opposition is the prime objective of this build-up.

TABLE 7 MYANMARS DEFENCE FORCES

Army 350,000 military personnel Tanks: 205 (100 Type-69, 105 Type-63) APCs: 440 (Ferret, Humber, Hino, Mazda, Type-85, Type-90) Artillery: M-1948 76mm, M-101 105mm, M46 130mm, Soltam 155mm, mortars (81mm, 82mm, 120mm) SAM: HN-5A, SA-16 Navy Missile-equipped naval vessels: 6 Houxin fast missile boats OPVs: 4 frigates, 10 Hainan patrol boats, 3 PB-90 patrol boats On Order: 3 corvettes

18

Air Force 60 F-7/FT-7 fighter-bombers / training aircraft 22 A5M fighter-bombers 10 Super Galeb G4 trainer/counter-insurgency 21 PC-7/PC-9 trainer/counter-insurgency 18 Mi-2 armed helicopters 11 Mi-17 armed helicopters On Order: 10 MiG-29 jetfighters Sources: Various, including The Military Balance 2003-2004 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2003), Asian Military Review, February 2001, Asian Defence Journal (various issues) and Janes Defence Weekly (various issues).

Myanmar has clearly made efforts to expand its conventional capabilities, but this has to-date

been clearly limited to weapon systems it can obtain cheaply. For instance, it has used rice to

barter for 20 130mm artillery pieces from North Korea.55 It has bought cheap weapons

systems from China, but has opted recently to build three frigates in Myanmar using Chinese

hulls and Israeli electronics.56 Myanmar has also decided to upgrade its Chinese-built F7

jetfighters with Israeli avionics.57 Attempts in recent years at self-sufficiency has yielded

results in that its arms industries are now able to produce light weapons, light armored

vehicles, land-mines, mortars and ammunition.58 It is also evaluating the purchase of heavy

helicopter gunships such as the Mi-24 Hind, which is clearly aimed at dealing with ethnic

insurgents.59

One interesting break from its internal focus has been the evident alarm at Thailands

conventional capabilities, especially in the light of recent bilateral tensions and border

disputes. Myanmar has thus purchased a squadron of 10 used MiG-29 jetfighters, the

purpose of which is to counter Thailands F16 jetfighters. Other reasons advanced include

prestige and national pride, the dissatisfaction with the performance of Chinese-built

jetfighters and the perceived need to balance Chinas influence.60

55 Janes Defence Weekly, 5 August 1998, p.19. 56 Asian Defence Journal, March 2003, p.7. 57 Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter 1999 Annual Reference Edition, p.23. 58 Asian Defence Journal, March 2003, p.6. 59 Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, February 2002, p.20. 60 Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, February 2003, pp.22-23.

19

Vietnam

The conclusion of the Vietnam War in 1975 actually increased Vietnams military

capabilities, given the vast amounts of US war material in the South which fell into the hands

of the communist forces. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992 was to have a major

impact on Vietnamese-Soviet relations. Given its dependence on the Soviet Union,

Vietnams defence and foreign policies were invariably affected. The cut-off of an assured

supply of ammunition, spares and equipment at cheap or nominal prices seriously hampered

its ability to continue its military operations in Kampuchea. Moreover, Vietnam realized that

it could not win the war in Kampuchea, given the stalemate there and the cost in Vietnamese

lives and resources. As early as 1987, it announced a military reduction program, with the

army to be reduced by half its size through demobilization. Vietnam further promulgated a

new national security doctrine in 1987. Under the new doctrine, the past focus on the

forward deployment of forces in Laos and Kampuchea was replaced by an inward-looking

defence policy.61 This paved the way for the Kampuchea peace accord of 1991, which led to

rapprochement with ASEAN and its entry into that body in 1995.

Vietnams order of battle is shown in Table 8 below.

TABLE 8

VIETNAMS DEFENCE FORCES Army 412,000 military personnel, with 3-4 million reserves Tanks: 1,935 (45 T-34, 850 T-54/55, 70 T-62, 350 Type-59, 300 PT-76, 320 Type 62/63) APCs: 1,780 (1,100 BTR, 80 YW-531, 100 BRDM, 300 BMP, 200 M113) Artillery: 2,300 pieces of various types, including M114 155mm, 2S3 152mm and M107 175mm. Anti-tank missiles: AT-3 Sagger SSM: Scud B/C Navy Missile-equipped naval vessels: 13 (1 Type 124A corvette, 8 Osa II and 4 Tarantul missile boats) OPVs: 5 Petya corvettes, 10 torpedo craft Minehunters/sweepers: 10 (Soviet and PRC)

61 Asian Defence Journal, October 1998, pp.24-25.

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LSTs: 6 Submarines: 2 DPRK Yugo (midget submarines) On Order: BPS 500 missile boats (with SSN-25 anti-ship missiles) Air Force 53 Su-22 fighter-bombers 36 Su-27 fighter-bombers 124 MiG-21 jetfighters 26 Mi-24 helicopter gunships 4 Be-12 MR aircraft 15 Ka-25/28/32 ASW helicopters SAM: SA-2/ -3/ -6/ -7/ -16 Source: Various, including The Military Balance 2003-2004 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2003), Asian Military Review, February 2001, Asian Defence Journal (various issues) and Janes Defence Weekly (various issues). The diminished state of Vietnams armed forces compared to the immediate aftermath of the

Vietnam War indicates Vietnams current economic priorities and also the generally benign

state of its immediate strategic environment. Vietnam has not engaged in a major military

modernization or expansion program in the 1990s on the same scale as Singapore, Malaysia,

Thailand and Myanmar, although Vietnam is aware of its military deficiencies and is making

an attempt at redressing them. This is especially in terms of its ability to defend its maritime

resources. Vietnam produces some 14 million tones of oil a year from its offshore oil

platforms.62 Naval clashes with China over the Spratleys in the 1990s highlighted the need

for a credible naval capability. Although it wants a settlement on the Spratleys issue, it is

also ensuring it does have the means of defending its claims, in the form of new missile

boats, corvettes and SU-27 jetfighters.

Its Petya-class corvettes have recently been refitted, and midget submarines procured from

North Korea.63 There are plans to purchase new frigates, patrol craft and fast missile boats,

all to be delivered by 2010. Indeed, new KBO2000 corvettes displacing 2,000 tonnes and

armed with SSN-25 missiles have been ordered from Russia. 6 new 530-tonne BPS500 fast

missile boats armed with SSN-25 missiles are under construction.64 The air forces large

force of 124 MiG21 jetfighters are being upgraded by Russia, while the SU-27 force was

62 Gary Klintworth, Vietnams Offshore Capabilities Get a Boost, Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, December 1998 January 1999, p.6. 63 Naval Forces, February 2001, p.49. 64 Janes Defence Weekly, 24 March 1999, p.15.

21

augmented by a recent 1998 purchase of 24 new SU-27 jetfighters.65 Significantly, Vietnam

has also bought unspecified numbers of Scud C missiles from North Korea in a US$100

million deal paid partly with rice. The Scud Cs have a range of 550 km with a 770 kg

payload.66

These measures are meant to redress previous neglect and do not amount to a major military

expansion. Indeed, the very real poverty of the country, a lack of resources and the absence

of any major benefactor means that military modernization will remain fairly modest and will

not resemble the more serious expansion in some of the other ASEAN states.

Philippines

While the rest of ASEAN has made sustained efforts since 1975 to develop their conventional

warfare capabilities, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has been preoccupied with

serious internal security challenges stemming from the Communist Party of the Philippines

and the Muslim Moro rebellion in the south. Another preoccupation has been political

factionalism and involvement in domestic politics, a trend encouraged by Marcos and which

later led to a breakdown in cohesiveness during the Aquino era from 1987. Moreover, the

poor state of the Philippine economy has been a serious constraint on military modernization.

The Philippines was able to circumvent the problem of external defence through the security

alliance with the United States. The huge US basing facilities at Subic Bay and Clarke Air

Base provided a solid guarantee to Philippine external security and also an effective deterrent

against any external threat. The subsequent withdrawal of the US from its bases in 1992 left

the Philippines facing a huge security problem. It now had to provide for its own external

defence, and deal with its continuing internal insurgencies, with declining US assistance and

military aid. Moreover, the Philippines is a claimant to the potentially oil-rich Spratley

Islands in the South China Sea, but its claim conflicts with China, Vietnam, Malaysia and

Taiwan, all of which possess greater naval and air power compared to the Philippines.

Moreover, as an archipelagic state, it faces the daunting task of patrolling its huge territorial

waters.

65 Janes Defence Weekly, 6 January 1999, p.12. 66 Janes Defence Weekly, 14 April 1999, p.17.

22

Rather belatedly, President Ramos signed the Armed Forces Modernization Bill on 23

February 1995, in which the air force and the navy would get priority. The total cost of the

program is expected to be US$2 billion in the first five years and an estimated US$10 billion

for the following ten years. The program would emphasize the upgrading of facilities and the

purchase of new weapons systems.

The current inventory of the Philippine armed forces is found in Table 9 below.

TABLE 9

DEFENCE FORCES OF THE PHILIPPINES Army 66,000 military personnel, with 175,000 reserves Tanks: 65 Scorpion APCs: 520 (85 YPR-765 PRI, 100 M-113, 20 Chaimite, 100 V-150, 150 Simba, 30 LVTP-5, 55 LVTP-7) Artillery: 392 M-101, M-102, M-26 and M-56 105mm, M-114 and M-68 155mm Navy OPVs: 1 frigate and 13 offshore patrol boats LSTs: 7 Air Force 14 F5A / F5B 55 Bell UH1H helicopters 12 AUH-76 helicopter gunships 20 MD 520MG light helicopters 1 F27 MR aircraft 20 OV-10 Bronco COIN/recce RPV: 2 Blue Horizon II Sources: Various, including The Military Balance 2003-2004 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2003), Asian Military Review, February 2001, Asian Defence Journal (various issues) and Janes Defence Weekly (various issues).

However, the 1997 economic crisis and an upsurge in attacks by communist and Muslim

insurgents forced a change in priorities. It was thus not until August 1999 that the

23

modernization program officially commenced. Even then, it was clear very little money was

available for actual weapons purchases. In 1999, the Philippines resumed large-scale military

exercises with the US, with the ratification of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). With

this, the Philippines is now able to access discarded or surplus US equipment under the US

Excess Defence Articles (EDA) program, for instance, UH1H helicopters, S70 Black Hawk

helicopters, UAVs and coastal patrol vessels. Perry-class and Knox-class frigates may in

future also be refurbished for the Philippine Navy.67 There exist plans to acquire 18-24

second-hand F5E Tiger jetfighters, possibly from Taiwan. A small squadron of 3 modern

maritime patrol aircraft has also been officially identified as an important priority.68

Trends in Force Modernization Programs

A number of trends in regional force modernization programs can be identified. They

include increasing technological sophistication, a trend towards the diversification of sources,

the introduction of new capabilities, the emphasis on protecting economic resources

(particularly maritime resources) and a trend towards competitive arms acquisitions.69

Technological Sophistication

Clearly Southeast Asian armed forces are becoming more and more technologically

sophisticated, as can be seen in the types of weapons platforms and systems being acquired.

Greater emphasis is being placed on the acquisition of smart weapons systems, including

guided munitions. In addition, some Southeast Asian armed forces are also investing in

command, control, communications and computer processing, as well as intelligence,

surveillance, reconnaissance systems (the so-called C4-ISR) that will allow their armed

forces to operate not as disparate single services, but as joint forces integrating air, land and

naval power. Singapore, for instance, has a Ministry of Defence headquarters complete with

hardened underground operations control center at Bukit Gombak, which is linked through

67 Asian Defence Journal, July 1999, p.62, and Asian Defence Yearbook 2000-2001, p.114. 68 World Defence Almanac 2002-2003 (Military Technology, Vol.27, Issue 1, 2003), p.306. 69 Many of the trends in arms modernization in the region, and their causes, were first identified by Desmond Ball in his seminal article in 1993, one which has stood the test of time in that the same trends and causes remain relevant to a large extent even today. See Desmond Ball, Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific Region, International Security, vol.18, no.3 (Winter 1993/94),

24

microwave and fiber-optic channels to an island-wide command, control, communications

and intelligence network.70

Technology answers the problem of technological obsolescence which all Southeast Asian

armed forces have had to face. Southeast Asian states, with the exception of Thailand, are

former colonies and inherited their military hardware from their former colonial masters

when they became independent after 1945. By the late 1970s, operating and maintaining

such hardware was becoming a serious problem, as metal fatigue and the lack of spare parts

made existing military hardware very difficult to operate.

The post-Cold War proliferation of sophisticated weapons systems have included multi-role

fighter aircraft, maritime reconnaissance aircraft, modern missiles (including anti-ship

missiles, beyond visual range air-to-air missiles, air-to-ground missiles, tactical ground-to-

ground missiles), modern artillery systems, submarines and warships equipped with the latest

electronics and anti-ship missiles. Indeed, the advent of weapons systems such as Scud

missiles, late-model MiG29, F16, F18 and Su27 jetfighters, MRLS systems, and modern

frigates armed with Harpoon and Exocet missiles has changed the strategic landscape. They

have raised fears of a regional arms race as well as mutual tensions, given that the ongoing

military modernization has given states in the region conventional strike capabilities they did

not previously possess.

Yet, despite evident efforts at military modernization, regional arms modernization programs

must be seen in proper perspective. Not many states in Southeast Asia are ready to adopt the

so-called Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), which is predicated upon information

technology, the telecommunications revolution, stealth technology and precision-guided

munitions. Countries in the region generally do not have the economic resources, military

budget, nor the technological capability and trained manpower to acquire the full suite of

RMA technologies. To embark on the path of RMA, armed forces must also undergo

fundamental doctrinal, logistical and organizational changes, as well as acquiring relevant

equipment, which they are in the main not prepared to.

70 Cited in Desmond Ball, Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific Region, International Security, vol.18, no.3 (Winter 1993/94), p.94.

25

Pragmatism demands the use of limited resources to protect economic resources, especially

offshore maritime resources. However, the information collection and surveillance

capabilities that is the hallmark of modern RMA technologies may be relevant to countering

illegal migration, piracy or even drug trafficking, problems which are prevalent among some

regional countries. Moreover, states in the region are conscious of military technological

developments and want to stay on the learning curve. There is thus varying degrees of

interest in the technological aspects of the RMA.

Among countries in the region, Malaysia has expressed the interest to acquire new

information-based systems, but inter-service rivalries and budgetary constraints have

impaired the ability of the armed forces to embrace fully the required organizational and

doctrinal changes. Still, the Malaysian armed forces has improved incrementally and appears

determined to at least stay on the learning curve and be able to use some RMA-type

technologies to counter Singapores growing superiority.

Indeed, it is Singapore which perceives the RMA as a solution to external conventional

threats. Technology seems to be the solution to the problem of lack of size. RMA-type

technologies are also a force-multiplier that can offset the countrys lack of strategic depth

and limited resources. Moreover, Singapore has a population which is literate and

technologically disposed to adapt the RMA.

New Capabilities

Southeast Asian armed forces are also in the process of introducing new capabilities, where

none existed before. There have been a number of notable trends. Firstly, the majority of

Southeast Asian land forces have traditionally been trained for anti-guerrilla operations, but

the collapse of some of the regions major insurgency movements has meant a shift towards

conventional capabilities. Thailand is today a major conventional land power on mainland

Southeast Asia, whilst also possessing quite substantial airpower and a growing blue-water

capability. The Malaysian and Singapore armed forces have, or are in the process of

acquiring, very modern artillery systems such as multiple rocket launching systems (MRLS)

and self-propelled 155mm howitzers. The latest MBTs may soon make an appearance in

their inventories, with Malaysia finally making its long-awaited purchase of Polish T72 tanks

and Singapore said to be interested in French Leclerc and other similar MBTs. Singapore

26

also introduced advanced AEW systems in the form of E2C Hawkeyes, in the late 1980s,

with Malaysia now said to be evaluating similar systems. Vietnam has introduced tactical

medium range-land missile systems in the form of Scud Cs which it acquired from North

Korea.

Secondly, given the far-flung nature of federal and achipelagic states such as Malaysia,

Indonesia and Philippines, it is not surprising that various armed forces have also enhanced

their rapid deployment capabilities. Indonesia is expanding the size of its marine corps from

13,000 to 23,000.71 Malaysia has set up a Rapid Deployment Force in 1989, which is

supposed to gradually grow to a division-size force. Apprehension over possible regional

instability has also seen Singapore set up its own rapid deployment division, equipped with

helicopter, armor and artillery assets.72 These developments indicate the growing emphasis

among regional armed forces on quick deployment and intervention capabilities.

Thirdly, states have also been acquiring new capabilities to make their existing armed forces

better balanced. For instance, the navies of the region have been deficient in several

important capabilities throughout their existence, for instance mine counter-measures,

maritime surveillance, offshore patrol and anti-submarine capabilities. These deficiencies are

currently being addressed through the acquisition of mine counter-measures vessels, maritime

patrol aircraft, OPVs and anti-submarine weapons systems. Thailand has been building up a

blue-water capability, which has seen the purchase of an aircraft carrier. Singapores navy

will also soon make the transition from a coastal patrol force to a true blue-water navy when

its six 3,600-tonne Lafayette frigates are delivered.

Fourthly, the air forces of the region have also improved dramatically in the last decade. The

air forces of Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia operate F16s, with Singapore operating late-

model Block 52 F16C/Ds, some with Isreali-derived suppression of enemy air defence

(SEAD) capabilities. Malaysia and Myanmar operate MiG-29s and Vietnam, Indonesia and

Malaysia has purchased the air-superiority SU-27 / SU-30. There is thus a notable trend

towards the acquisition of advanced fighter aircraft. Indeed, Singapore is likely to be the first

in the region to introduce fourth-generation jetfighters as it seeks up to 48 aircraft to replace

71 Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, February-March 2000, p.29. 72 Anthony Spellman, Rapid Deployment Forces on Horizon for Malaysia, Singapore, Armed Forces Journal International, April 1991, p.36.

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its A4 Skyhawk and F5E/F Tiger jetfighters; the aircraft being considered include the latest

Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale and SU-35 jetfighters.73

Competitive Arms Acquisitions

Within the region, a competitive or interactive action-reaction phenomenon is reflected in

competing arms acquisitions. Malaysias reaction to the initial acquisitions of F16s by

Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore was to consider acquiring the advanced multi-role

Tornado; it has since purchased MiG-29s, F/A-18s and more recently, the SU-30 fighter-

bomber. Malaysias attempts to acquire the similar capabilities to Singapore is said to have

given impetus to its recent decision to purchase French-made Scorpene submarines.

Myanmars recent acquisition of MiG-29 jetfighters is also a surprising development given

that Myanmars security perspectives have traditionally been inward looking. One of the

reasons has been the perceived need to counter Thailands F16 capabilities, in the context of

continuing bilateral tensions over border disputes.

It is important to note that there are a complex set of factors which explain arms purchases,

for instance, in the case of Malaysia and Myanmar, which undermines the notion of an arms

race in the region according to the Colin Gray definition. Nevertheless, Desmond Ball has

noted that these upgrading and modernization programs are proceeding in an atmosphere of

uncertainty and lack of trust; uncertainty and suspicion being fueled by a relative lack of

transparency in the region with respect to the long-term objectives behind current acquisition

programs.74

Protecting Economic Resources

Protecting economic resources has become the primary focus for almost all the ASEAN

states. In particular, new capabilities had to be introduced in the maritime and air

environments to ensure security in an era of 200nm EEZs, and also to better patrol long and

vulnerable sea lanes of communications in an era of US withdrawal after the end of the

Vietnam War and the end of the Cold War, as well as the increasing assertiveness of China.

The emphasis on maritime air and naval capabilities has coincided with the increasing 73 See Singapore: Deconstruction Forges Ahead, Janes Defence Weekly, 27 June 2001. 74 Desmond Ball, Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific Region, p.102.

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concerns over territorial disputes in the maritime environment, especially the territorial

disputes in the South China Sea, which is said to be rich in mineral resources such as oil. In

addition, there are increasing problems with piracy and smuggling. This emphasis on littoral

security at least partly explains the acquisition of maritime patrol aircraft, for instance, as

well as the renewed interest in coastal and offshore patrol vessels, which allow littoral states

to more effectively patrol their coastal waters and protect their offshore economic resources.

Diversification of Sources

While the US remains the single largest supplier of arms in the world, and while it continues

to command the largest share of the arms market in Southeast Asia, that share has nonetheless

been shrinking. Other suppliers, such as Britain, France, Sweden, China and Russia have

increased their share of the Southeast Asian market, particularly since the end of the Cold

War. The downsizing of Western and Russian force structures in the aftermath of the Cold

War has meant a buyers market, as Western arms makers have made great efforts at

marketing the latest technology at relatively attractive prices. Southeast Asian armed forces

have thus been able to access relatively high-technology weapons systems at relatively low

prices. An indication of this new diversity and sophistication is the emergence of modern

Russian weapon systems in the inventories of several Southeast Asian states, for instance,

MiG-29 / SU-27 / SU-30 jetfighters in the air forces of Myanmar, Malaysia, Indonesia and

Vietnam. Even Singapore has recently purchased Igla portable surface-to-air missiles from

Russia. Apart from arms suppliers from outside the region, indigenous arms industries have

also grown, in countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Myanmar. The armed

forces of Southeast Asia have thus come to depend less on the traditional arms suppliers, and

have managed to diversify their sources of modern weapons systems.

Causes of the Regional Arms Build-up

There are a number of causes of the regional arms build-up in Southeast Asia.

Economic Growth

The sustained high economic growth of the ASEAN states from the late 1970s until the

economic crisis of 1997 provided the necessary economic resources to upgrade military

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capabilities. Even if the percentage of GDP spent on defence had remained more or less

constant, or shown only a marginal increase, the amount of actual expenditure and hence

resources devoted to defence had in fact increased simply as a result of the huge economic

growth in ASEAN. Indeed, until the present economic crisis, the entire Asia-Pacific region

had been the fastest-growing region in the world since the late 1970s.

A series of studies of the relationship between defence expenditure and economic growth in

the ASEAN states from the early 1960s through to the late 1980s have consistently shown

that there is a close and positive correlation between them.75 Those with the highest rates of

growth of GNP, such as Singapore and Malaysia, have had the highest rates of increase of

defence spending, while those with slower economic growth, such as Indonesia and the

Philippines, have had the slowest increases in defence spending.

The Requirements for EEZ Surveillance and Protection

The promulgation of 200-mile EEZs under UNCLOS III has generated requirements for

surveillance and power-projection capabilities over resource-rich areas. Indeed, there exist

disputes over the South China Sea involving China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the

Philippines. There are also concerns over increasing acts of piracy and smuggling. There is

also the question of ensuring the security of the important sea lanes of communications that

passes through the Straits of Malacca, given that half of the worlds maritime trade passes

through it. Coupled with the limited, multilateral framework for security in the Asia-Pacific,

and the withdrawal of the US from Subic Bay in 1992, all littoral states in the region have felt

the need to invest heavily in building up their navies and maritime capabilities.

Inter-State Tensions in the Region

Smaller states in the region are wary of domination by regional powers. The great power

potential of China, India and Japan have often been mentioned. But a more salient factor

may well be the continued presence of severe inter-state tensions within even Southeast Asia,

75 Cited in Desmond Ball, Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific Region, p.80.

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a factor which has been the focus of recent academic discussion.76 These studies have

focused on the potential for conflict between states in the region over maritime boundaries,

disputed territory, fisheries disputes, border conflict over refugees and alleged support for

domestic rebellion.

Internal Security

Myanmar, Indonesia and the Philippines are evidently concerned with internal security, given

the salience of armed rebellion in these countries.77 Myanmar has in the last decade engaged

in a massive quantitative expansion of its armed forces chiefly in order to deal with internal

rebellion and dissent. The armed forces of Indonesia and the Philippines are also similarly

concerned with archipelagic security and dealing with internal rebellions along their

peripheries. For these reasons, none of the three have invested in the full suite of RMA

technologies although they are interested in the surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities

of the RMA which they believe would better enable them to maintain internal security.

What is interesting is that of late, both Malaysia and Singapore have renewed their interest in

internal security capabilities. The events of 11 September in the US, the evident rise of

militant Islam and the influence of pan-Islamic militant ideology in the region as shown by a

string of violent incidents involving militant Muslims in Malaysia, Indonesia and the

Philippines in recent years, have caused both countries to re-evaluate their security priorities.

Hence, Malaysian Defence Minister Tun Najib has now called for the armed forces to be

prepared for low-intensity conflict and urban warfare (i.e. to be better equipped to handle

terrorist attacks), while Singapore has promulgated Homeland Defence, which it intends to

gradually put into place in the next few years.78 These, however, do not mean a diversion

away from conventional defence capabilities as inter-state tensions remain salient in various

parts of Asia.

76 See, for instance, Andrew Tan, Intra-ASEAN Tensions (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2000) and N Ganesan, Bilateral Tensions Among the ASEAN States (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2000) 77 For a recent study of these, see Andrew Tan, Armed Rebellion in the ASEAN States (Canberra: Australian National University, 2000). 78 See Mohamad Najib Abdul Razak, Defending Malaysia: Facing the Twenty-First Century (London: ASEAN Academic, 2001), p.83-85, and Straits Times Interactive, 5 November 2001.

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The Broadening of Regional Security Concerns

The emergence of non-traditional security issues has had the effect of broadening security

concerns. Economic security involves the protection of sea lanes of communications as well

as marine resources such as seabed minerals and fisheries. There is also growing concern

over piracy in the South China Sea, as well as illegal smuggling of both contraband and

human refugees. These have had the effect of increasing demands for resources to be put into

offshore maritime patrol capabilities with the use of both maritime patrol aircraft as well as

coastal patrol craft and larger OPVs that can operate helicopters.

A Buyers Market

The worldwide decline in arms purchases following detente in the 1970s and particularly

since the end of the Cold War led European and US arms manufacturers to search for new

markets. Russia has also emerged in recent years as a supplier of the latest weapons systems

at bargain prices. Moreover, the new indigenous arms makers in Third World states like

Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Israel, are providing stiff competition. The

increasingly wealthy Asia-Pacific states thus eagerly snapped up the latest weapons systems.

The highly competitive market assured a buyers' market, with the ASEAN states demanding

sophisticated weapon systems which supplier states had been reluctant to sell. Thus, by the

early 1990s, states such as Malaysia were able to purchase MiG29 and F18 Hornet jetfighters,

Thailand an aircraft carrier, and Singapore F16s and E2C Hawkeye AEW aircraft. Navies in

the region have been able to afford to arm their combat vessels with Exocet and Harpoon

anti-shipping missiles. Submarines, hitherto the preserve of the Indonesian navy, have been

purchased by the Singapore Navy, with Malaysia and Thailand likely to follow. Weapon

purchasers can also demand and receive technology transfers, licensed production

agreements, offsets and local manufacturing of sub-components, all of which bring with them

economic and technological benefits.79 As a result, the power projection capabilities of the

ASEAN states have increased markedly. Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, in particular, all

possess amphibious capabilities, growing naval strength and improving air forces. 79 For instance, Russian suppliers were required to set up a joint venture service centre for MiG-29s in Malaysia as part of the jetfighter deal, and to establish ventures with Malaysian companies to produce components or provide training and maintenance services. See Michael Richardson, "Offer Offsets, Or Miss Out," Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, October-November 1994, p.6.

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Prestige

The possession of sophisticated weapons systems is an indicator of political and economic

modernization. The prestige factor has enabled armed forces in the region to press for the

acquisition of some eye-catching items, such as an aircraft carrier for Thailands navy, surely

an extravagance for a developing nation which is basically a land power. F16 fighter aircraft

and modern frigates serve as important national status symbols - they at least enable national

armed forces not to lose face during multilateral or bilateral training exercises. In the

context of historical Thai-Myanmar rivalries, ethnic animosities and negative mirror images

of each other, it is not surprising that Myanmar also felt a need to maintain its standing with

the purchase of MiG-29s.80

Domestic Political Factors

One reason for Thailands recent emphasis on naval acquisition programs was motivated

partly by the fact that the Royal Thai Navy chose to opt out of the military junta that toppled

the elected government of Chatichai Choonhavan in 1992. Indeed, the Navy tacitly

supported the pro-democracy movement which erupted in the wake of military coup. The

civilian government that was subsequently voted into office rewarded the Navys non-

involvement by allotting it a very large share of defence spending. This included purchasing

Jianghu-class frigates and recently an aircraft carrier.

This is not the only instance where domestic structures appear to play a major role in arms

acquisition policy. Indeed, Indonesias acquisition of former East German vessels had more

to do with the particular policy agenda of its Minister for Technology Habibie, who wanted to

maintain high-tech strategic industries in Indonesia, than with answering any particular

strategic requirement.

80 For a study of Thai-Myanmar bilateral tensions, see Maung Aung Myoe, Neither Friend Nor Foe: Myanmars Relations with Thailand Since 1988 (Singapore: Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, 2002).

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Corruption

The involvement of the military in economic and commercial activities in many parts of the

region has produced instances where military greed has figured prominently in many major

acquisition programs.

There has been some evidence to support the arg