Arizona Voters and Education Issues - Stand for...

1

Arizona Voters and Education Issues

December 2017

Arizona Voters and Education Issues

December 2017

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500 live telephone interviews among a representative sample of

voters in Arizona.

Landline (41%) and cell phone (59%) interviews conducted

December 7-10, 2017.

Plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level.

Methodology

Sample

Method

Sampling Error

3

Philosophy

•Very Cons. 17%•Somewhat Cons. 18%•Moderates 30%•Liberals 25%

Gender

•Men 47%•Women 53%

Age

•18-34 26%•35-44 13%•45-54 13%•55-64 23%•65+ 26%

Arizona Electorate

Party Registration

•Republicans 36%•Democrats 29%• Inds./others 34%

Ethnicity

•Caucasians 66%•Hispanics 15%•African Americans 4%•Native Americans 2%•Others 8%

Vote History

•0-1 of 4 35%•2 of 4 22%•3 of 4 16%•4 of 4 27%

Education

•0-12 years 17%•13-15 years 28%•16 years 28%•17+ years 21%

Income

• Less than $34,999 22%• $35,000-$49,999 16%• $50,000-$74,999 15%• $75,000-$99,999 11%• $100,000-$149,999 14%• $150,000 or more 9%

2016 Presidential Vote(Among those who voted)

• Trump 37%•Clinton 38%•Other 16%

4

Political Environment

5

48%

19%

34%

40%

14%

46%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Right direction Don't know Wrong track

Dec. 2016Dec. 2017

Voter Mood:Pessimism Prevails Today

“Do you believe things in Arizona are generally headed in the right direction, or do you think things are pretty much headed off on the wrong track?” (Q1)

Republicans are optimistic, but Democrats are widely pessimistic and Independents/others are divided. Note gender gap: women are pessimistic but men are optimistic.

6

40%

19%

12%

7%

6%

3%

3%

1%

2%

46%

18%

7%

11%

6%

2%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Education

Illegal immigration

Health care

Jobs and the economy

Government spending too high

Taxes are too high

Government spending too low

Taxes are too low

Transportation

Dec. 2017Dec. 2016

Education is Still Perceived to Be the Biggest Problem Facing Arizona Today; Health Care

Concerns Appear to Be On the Rise

“Which one of the following, in your opinion, is the biggest problem facing the state of Arizona today?” (Q2)

Education Concerns: 2010-2017

• Dec. 2017 40%• Dec. 2016 46%• June 2015 36%• Nov. 2014 27%• Mar. 2014 17%• Mar. 2013 17%• Apr. 2012 19%• Jan. 2011 17%• Sept. 2010 12%

Concern about health care is consistent with sentiment throughout the country due to high visibility of health care reform on the national stage.

NA

NA

7Arizona’s Biggest Problem Today:Key Subgroups (1)

County Gender AgeAll

voters Maricopa Pima Others Men Women18-34

35-44

45-54

55-64 65+

Education 40% 41% 34% 40% 39% 41% 54% 52% 27% 31% 34%Illegal immigration 19% 20% 14% 22% 20% 19% 10% 9% 25% 19% 32%

Health care 12% 12% 17% 9% 9% 14% 9% 13% 14% 15% 10%Jobs and the economy 7% 5% 11% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 8% 7% 5%

Government spending is too high

6% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 5% 10% 2%

Taxes are too high 3% 4% 5% 2% 4% 3% 3% 2% 6% 4% 2%

Government spending is too low

3% 3% 1% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 4% 3% 4%

Transportation 2% * 6% 3% 2% 2% 3% -- 1% 3% 2%Taxes are too low 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% * -- -- -- 3% 2%

*Less than one-half of one percent

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Party Registration Ethnicity

All voters Reps. Dems.Inds./others Caucasians Hispanics Others

Education 40% 30% 49% 42% 39% 46% 40%

Illegal immigration 19% 34% 8% 14% 21% 7% 22%

Health care 12% 10% 15% 10% 12% 15% 9%

Jobs and the economy 7% 5% 9% 7% 7% 11% 5%Government spending is too high 6% 8% 2% 7% 5% 6% 8%

Taxes are too high 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 6%Government spending is too low 3% 1% 5% 3% 3% -- 5%

Transportation 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2%

Taxes are too low 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% --

Arizona’s Biggest Problem Today:Key Subgroups (2)

9Biggest Problem Facing Local Schools:Lack of Funding Tops the List Today

20%

12%

10%

6%

4%

4%

13%

15%

3%

7%

3%

6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Lack of funding (general)

Low teacher salaries/lack offunding for teacher pay

Funding/funding education/financing (general)

Poor quality of education/loweducational standards/poor

curriculum

Inappropriate/inefficient use offunds

Unqualified/low quality staff/teachers

Dec. 2017Dec. 2016

“What, in your opinion, is the biggest problem facing public schools in your community today?” (Q17)

10Biggest Problem Facing Local Schools: Key Subgroup

Party Registration

All voters Reps. Dems. Inds./othersLack of funding (general) 20% 14% 28% 19%Low teacher salaries/lack of funding for teacher pay 12% 11% 14% 12%

Funding/funding education/financing (general) 10% 8% 13% 10%

Poor quality of education/low educational standards/poor curriculum 6% 6% 4% 7%

Inappropriate/inefficient use of funds 4% 4% 2% 5%

Unqualified/low quality staff/teachers 4% 7% 1% 3%

Education funding is more likely to be a worry among Democrats than Republicans or Independents.

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Image Ratings of Elected Officials and Education Organizations

12The Arizona Legislature:Key Subgroups

Favorable UnfavorableNo opinion/not aware Net favorable

All voters 28% 45% 28% -17%County

Maricopa 22% 50% 28% -28%Pima 40% 31% 29% +9%Others 32% 40% 27% -8%

Age18-34 29% 29% 42% --35-44 22% 50% 28% -28%45-54 26% 45% 29% -19%55-64 32% 53% 15% -21%65+ 27% 50% 23% -23%

Party RegistrationRepublicans 34% 37% 29% -3%Democrats 19% 58% 22% -39%Inds./others 27% 41% 31% -14%

EthnicityCaucasians 29% 46% 24% -17%Hispanics 22% 44% 34% -22%Others 29% 32% 40% -3%

Favorable, 31%

Favorable, 28%

Unfavorable, 36%

Unfavorable, 45%

No opinion/not aware, 34%

No opinion/not aware, 28%

Dec. 2016

Dec. 2017

13Arizona Department of Education:Key Subgroups



Maricopa 21% 62% 17% -41%Pima 25% 53% 22% -28%Others 26% 62% 12% -36%

Age18-34 25% 55% 20% -30%35-44 21% 64% 16% -43%45-54 19% 62% 19% -43%55-64 25% 64% 11% -39%65+ 23% 61% 16% -38%



Favorable, 23% Unfavorable, 61% No opinion/not aware, 16%Dec. 2017

14Superintendent Diane Douglas:Key Subgroups



Maricopa 12% 41% 47% -29%Pima 13% 13% 74% --Others 16% 30% 54% -14%

Age18-34 14% 19% 67% -5%35-44 11% 32% 57% -21%45-54 10% 39% 51% -29%55-64 14% 43% 43% -29%65+ 15% 40% 45% -25%




15Arizona State Board for Education:Key Subgroups



Maricopa 19% 55% 26% -36%Pima 14% 47% 40% -33%Others 22% 57% 21% -35%

Age18-34 20% 57% 23% -37%35-44 23% 50% 27% -27%45-54 14% 55% 31% -41%55-64 20% 57% 22% -37%65+ 18% 50% 32% -32%




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Current Perceptions of Arizona Public Schools

17Current Perceptions of Arizona

Public Schools

22%

30%

40%

17%

35%

41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A/B C D/Fail

Dec. 2016

Dec. 2017

Arizona’s Public Schools (Q15)

Public Schools in Your Community (Q16)

41%

26% 25%

36%

31%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A/B C D/Fail

Dec. 2016

Dec. 2017

“How would you grade… A, B, C, D or Fail?”

18Arizona Public Schools: Key Subgroups

A/B C D/Fail

All voters 17% 35% 41%

Party registration

Republicans 20% 37% 37%

Democrats 20% 30% 41%

Independents/others 13% 37% 46%

Kids/grandkids in school?

No 16% 34% 41%

Yes 19% 36% 41%

19Public Schools in Your Community: Key Subgroups

A/B C D/Fail


Party registration





No 32% 33% 24%

Yes 43% 29% 26%

20Grading the Arizona Legislature on Public Schools: Key Subgroups

A/B C D/Fail


Party registration





No 10% 26% 49%

Yes 10% 28% 57%

2016 Presidential vote

Yes, Trump 17% 33% 36%

Yes, Clinton 5% 21% 67%

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6%

27%

59%

8%5%

27%

57%

10%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Better About the same Worse Don’t know

Dec. 2016Dec. 2017

Arizona Public Schools vs. Most Other States: Worse

“In general, do you believe most public schools in Arizona are better, about the same or worse than public schools in most other states?” (Q21)

There is consensus agreement among voters in most subgroups that Arizona’s public schools are worse than public schools in most other states.

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4%

20%

48%

27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Higher About the same Lower Don't know

Arizona Public Schools vs. Most Other States on 3rd Grade Reading Levels:

Nearly Half Say AZ is Worse“To the best of your knowledge, are third grade reading levels in Arizona higher, about the same or lower than third

grade reading levels in most other states?” (Q22)

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Funding Arizona Public Schools and Prop. 301

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“Do you think Arizona public schools currently have the money needed to provide students with a quality education, or do you think the state should be spending more on schools?” (Q20)

Public School Funding: Does Arizona Have Enough Money or Should State Spend

More?

Wide majorities of voters throughout the state in all subgroups believe the state should be spending more on schools, including Republicans.

18%

6%

77%

17%

5%

78%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Public schools have the money needed

Don't know State should be spending more

Dec. 2016

Dec. 2017

25

39%

24%

63%

4%

33%

11%

22%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Definitely for

Probably for Total for Don't know Total against

Probably against

Definitely against

Majority Continues to Support Higher Taxes to Fund Arizona Public Schools

“Would you vote for or against increasing taxes in order to provide additional funding for Arizona’s public schools?” (Q23)

26Voter Support for Higher Taxes to Fund Arizona Public Schools: Key Subgroups

For Don’t know Against Net forAll voters 63% 4% 33% +30%

County

Maricopa 64% 3% 33% +31%

Pima 62% 3% 35% +27%

Others 61% 6% 33% +28%

GOP/philosophy

Very Conservative Republicans 41% 3% 55% -14%

Somewhat Conservative Republicans 42% 11% 46% -4%

Moderate/Liberal Republicans 67% 2% 31% +36%


No 63% 4% 33% +30%

Yes 63% 3% 34% +29%

Even among GOP voters, half support higher taxes for public schools.

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31%

15%

12%

8%

8%

5%

3%

1%

14%

6%

0% 20% 40%

Liquor tax*

Sales tax

Soda tax

Property tax

Income tax

Real estate tax

Gas tax

Utility tax

No tax increases

Other/don't know

Preferred Tax Increase for Public School Funding

“Which one of the following taxes would you prefer to see increase in order to provide additional funding for public schools?” (Q24)

*Liquor tax was not an availableoption in the Dec. 2016 survey.

There is partisan agreement on most taxes, with the exception that Democrats prefer income tax much more than Republicans or Independents.

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“Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a state official who voted to increase taxes in order to provide additional funding for public schools in Arizona?” (Q25)

Most Voters are Positive About a State Official Who Supports Tax Increases to Fund Schools

Wide majorities of Democrats (79%) and Independents/others (65%) are more likely to vote for a state official supporting a tax increase. Very Conservative Republicans are marginally negative, somewhat Conservative

Republicans are marginally positive, but a majority of Moderate/Liberal Republicans are positive.

33% 31%

64%

10%

26%

9%

17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Much more likely

Somewhat more likely

Total more likely

Don't know Total less likely

Somewhat less likely

Much less likely

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“Here are what two people are saying about additional funding for public schools in Arizona. Smith supports increasing taxes to provide additional funding for public schools, so long as the revenue generated from the tax is targeted and spent in a way that is accountable to taxpayers. Jones says funding public

schools is important, but he would not support raising taxes in order to provide additional funding. He says the money should be found elsewhere in the state’s budget. Which of these views comes closest to your own?” (Q26)

Majority Supports Increasing Taxes for Education if Spending is Accountable to Taxpayers

While Democrats and Independents widely support increasing taxes (Smith), Republicans are divided on this issue (45% Smith/45% Jones).

36%

20%

56%

8%

36%

11%

25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Strongly Smith

Smith Total Smith Don't know Total Jones Jones Strongly Jones

30Arizonans Favor Renewing

Prop. 301“As you may know, in the year 2000, Arizona voters approved Proposition 301, raising the state sales tax from 5

cents to 5.6 cents, with the increased funds dedicated to public schools, including teacher pay, university research and community colleges. Currently Prop 301 provides $660 million to schools each year. That six tenths of a cent

sales tax increase expires in June 2021. If a proposal to renew Prop 301 was on the ballot today, would you vote to continue the six tenths of a cent sales tax for public schools or would you vote to end the six tenths of a cent sales

tax for public schools?” (Q27)

Majorities among all key demographic subgroups would renew Prop 301.

56%

21%

77%

4%

19%

6%

14%

56%

20%

76%

3%

20%

5%

15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Definitely vote to

continue

Probably vote to

continue

Total continue

Don’t know

Total end

Probably vote to end

Definitely vote to end

Dec. 2016

Dec. 2017

31Arizonans Favor Renewing Prop. 301: Key Subgroups

Continue Don't know End Net continueAll voters 76% 3% 20% +56%County

Maricopa 77% 4% 19% +58%Pima 74% -- 26% +48%Others 76% 4% 20% +56%

Party registrationRepublicans 66% 4% 30% +36%Democrats 86% 2% 12% +74%Independents/others 79% 4% 17% +62%

GOP/philosophy

Very Conservative Republicans 58% 3% 39% +19%Somewhat Conservative Republicans 69% 2% 29% +40%Moderate/Liberal Republicans 77% 5% 19% +58%

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65%

5%

30%

64%

4%

31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Total for

one cent

Don’t know

Total against one cent

Dec. 2016Dec. 2017

Support for Increases in Sales Tax Beyond 6/10ths of a Cent

61%

5%

34%

50%

6%

43%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Total for

1.6 cents

Don’t know

Total against 1.6 cents

Dec. 2016Dec. 2017

“If the proposed renewal of the Prop. 301 sales tax increased the sales tax from six-tenths of a cent to one cent in order to

provide additional funding for public schools, would you vote for or against it knowing that the sales tax would be four-tenths of

a cent higher than it is now?” (Q28)

“Another proposal that would renew the Prop 301 sales tax for schools would increase the Prop 301 sales tax to one point six

cents instead of six tenths of a cent - a sales tax increase of one cent. If there was an election today, would you vote for or

against extending and increasing the sales tax to one point six cents to provide additional funding for public schools?” (Q29)*

*Question language in 2017 did not include the phrase “…to restore $1 billion per year that was cut from public schools during the recession.”

33Prop. 301 One Cent Increase: Key Subgroups

Forone cent Don’t know

Against one cent

Net forone cent

All voters 64% 4% 31% +33%Party registration

Republicans 54% 4% 42% +12%Democrats 76% 6% 18% +58%Independents/others 66% 3% 31% +35%

GOP/philosophyVery Conservative Republicans 51% 3% 46% +5%



34Prop. 301 1.6 Cent Increase: Key Subgroups

For1.6 cents Don’t know

Against 1.6 cents

Net for1.6 cents

All voters 50% 6% 43% +7%Party registration

Republicans 40% 5% 55% -15%Democrats 60% 8% 31% +29%Independents/others 52% 7% 42% +10%

GOP/philosophy

Very Conservative Republicans 28% 6% 65% -37%



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ELL Reform

36Seven-in-Ten Support ELL Reform“Current law requires students for whom English is not their primary language, known as English Language Learners, or ELL, to participate in a 4-hour sheltered English immersion block, where they spend 4 hours a day in classrooms where only English is spoken. Would you favor or oppose changing Arizona’s ELL requirements to allow local school

districts and charter schools the flexibility to adopt a different program to teach children English faster?” (Q30)

ELL reform finds majority support among all subgroups, including Republicans.

41%

31%

72%

13% 15%

8% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Strongly favor

Somewhat favor

Total favor Don't know Total oppose

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

37

81%

6%12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Favor Don't know Oppose

Strong Support for Teaching English Faster

78%

10% 12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

More likely Don't know Less likely

“Studies have also shown that the graduation rate of English Language Learners, or ELL, in Arizona is one of the lowest in the country. State

data also shows that under the state’s current ELL teaching requirements, Arizona students are not learning English. Recently

released statewide test scores showed that two-thirds of all Arizona schoolchildren learning English failed the testing. Currently, over

80,000 students are not proficient in the English language. Would you favor or oppose changing Arizona’s ELL requirements to allow local school districts and charter schools the flexibility to adopt their own

high-quality programs to teach children English faster?” (Q31)

After hearing more about this issue, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who wants to ensure that taxpayer dollars

are being used efficiently to provide non-native English speakers a high-quality program to teach them English faster – which would

include modernizing the 4-hour sheltered English immersion block?” (Q32)

38

Early Literacy

39Perceptions of Current State

Investment Levels in Early Literacy“This year, an $8 million grant was provided to targeted support for schools with struggling students, to increase reading skills. Next year that grant could increase to $12 million, or about $40 for each student in grades 1-3. Do

you think that the state should spend more than $12 million to increase reading skills, less than $12 million or is $12 million about the right amount?” (Q33)

24%

14%

39%

10%

34%

17%

0%

20%

40%

A lot more A little more Total more Less About the right amount

Don't know

40Perceptions of Current State Investment Levels in Early Literacy: Key Subgroups

More LessAbout the

right amountDon't know

Net more over less

All voters 39% 10% 34% 17% +29%County

Maricopa 40% 11% 31% 18% +29%Pima 31% 15% 37% 17% +16%Others 40% 6% 41% 13% +34%

Age18-34 43% 5% 40% 12% +38%35-44 48% 9% 29% 14% +39%45-54 42% 12% 34% 11% +30%55-64 35% 17% 29% 19% +18%65+ 31% 9% 36% 23% +22%

Party RegistrationRepublicans 27% 14% 44% 15% +13%Democrats 48% 3% 28% 21% +45%Inds./others 43% 12% 30% 14% +31%

Tax Increase for Public Schools

For 48% 2% 34% 16% +46%Don’t know 25% -- 28% 47% +25%Against 23% 27% 37% 14% -4%

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