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Goldman Stanley
Confidential Draft
Project Jaguar
Presentation to the Board of DirectorsMay 10, 2014
Goldman Stanley
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Jaguar Valuation 5
Potential Strategic Partners 25
Process Recommendations 38
Appendix 43
2
Goldman Stanley
Executive Summary
3
Goldman Stanley
Executive Summary
As of May 9, 2014, Jaguar’s share price and valuation multiples have more than doubled over the last twelve months
Even at its current levels, however, Jaguar is still undervalued relative to peer specialty pharmaceutical companies, and on an intrinsic, cash-flow basis
Given its prominence in the market, the record healthcare M&A activity in the first half of this year, and the soaring interest in “tax inversion” deals, Jaguar could make for an attractive acquisition candidate
Such a strategy would allow Jaguar to maximize shareholder value, expand its geographic reach and distribution channels, and acquire more resources for future research & development efforts and/or M&A activity
Given Jaguar’s unique attributes, we believe a purchase premium above 50%, implying a share price of ~$200+, is possible with the proper positioning and process
We recommend a highly targeted process focused on the most likely (“Tier 1”) potential partners, along with an outreach to Tier 2 potential partners while discussions with Tier 1 partners are ongoing
4
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Valuation
5
Goldman Stanley
Valuation Summary – Operating Scenarios
Base Case Management Case
$2.0 billion in FY 20 $4.2 billion in FY 21
$300 million / year $377 million / year
FY 20 FY 21
CAGR of 6%; max of ~$79,000 in FY 21
CAGR of 11%; max of ~$122,000 in FY 21
Increases from 7% in FY 13 to 19% in FY 23
Increases from 7% in FY 13 to 24% in FY 23
Steady between 54-56% until generics enter
Steady between 55-57% until generics enter
Peak Xyrem Revenue
Xyrem Revenue After Peak
Xyrem Generics Entrance Year
Annual Price Increases Through Peak Revenue
Xyrem Market Penetration
EBITDA Margins
6
Goldman Stanley
Summary of Valuation Implications
#1Jaguar appears to be undervalued by 50%+ in the Management Case and 10-20% in the Base Case
Implied Valuation
#2Also point to the same result – Jaguar trades below the median EV / EBITDA multiple of peer companies
Comparable Companies
#3Produces the highest implied valuation, primarily because Jaguar’s value is heavily dependent on Xyrem pricing 5-10 years into the future
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
#4Similar M&A deals imply a much lower valuation, but we believe these multiples are less relevant due to the lack of comparable deals
Precedent Transactions
7
Goldman Stanley
Base Case Financial Projections
ProjectedIncome Statement: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Revenue:Existing Products:
Xyrem Sales: $ M 578.6$ 766.6$ 975.1$ 1,205.9$ 1,447.1$ 1,709.4$ 1,975.3$ 276.3$ 301.4$ 301.4$ Erwinaze Sales: $ M 203.4 234.2 266.6 300.7 336.7 346.8 385.8 397.3 439.6 452.7 Defitelio Sales: $ M 57.8 79.8 107.1 140.7 182.0 209.3 240.7 276.9 318.4 366.1 Other Sales and Royalties: $ M 142.0 156.2 168.7 182.1 193.1 204.7 214.9 225.6 234.7 244.0
Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:JZP-110 Sales: $ M - - - 18.1 43.4 76.9 88.9 135.6 152.3 196.1 JZP-386 Sales: $ M - - - - - - - - - -
Total Revenue: $ M 981.8 1,236.7 1,517.4 1,847.6 2,202.3 2,547.1 2,905.6 1,311.7 1,446.4 1,560.5 Revenue Growth: % 12.5% 26.0% 22.7% 21.8% 19.2% 15.7% 14.1% (54.9%) 10.3% 7.9%
Operating Income (EBIT): $ M 266.7 563.2 716.8 895.2 1,088.2 1,286.5 1,477.1 549.9 616.9 674.2 Operating (EBIT) Margin: % 27.2% 45.5% 47.2% 48.5% 49.4% 50.5% 50.8% 41.9% 42.6% 43.2%
Net Income: $ M 178.8$ 430.6$ 556.6$ 719.2$ 877.5$ 1,054.8$ 1,211.2$ 450.9$ 505.8$ 552.8$ Effective Tax Rate: % 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Diluted Shares Outstanding: $ M 64.4 67.5 70.6 73.9 77.4 81.0 84.8 88.8 92.9 97.2Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $ as Stated 2.77$ 6.38$ 7.88$ 9.73$ 11.34$ 13.02$ 14.29$ 5.08$ 5.44$ 5.68$
EBITDA: $ M 527.1$ 695.5$ 847.8$ 1,029.8$ 1,224.0$ 1,410.1$ 1,606.8$ 665.0$ 734.9$ 795.1$ EBITDA Margin: % 53.7% 56.2% 55.9% 55.7% 55.6% 55.4% 55.3% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0%
8
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Share Figures)
Goldman Stanley
Management Case Financial Projections
ProjectedIncome Statement: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Revenue:Existing Products:
Xyrem Sales: $ M 773.7$ 1,083.1$ 1,455.7$ 1,902.2$ 2,391.3$ 2,959.2$ 3,551.1$ 4,218.7$ 376.8$ 376.8$ Erwinaze Sales: $ M 203.4 234.2 266.6 300.7 336.7 346.8 385.8 397.3 439.6 452.7 Defitelio Sales: $ M 57.8 79.8 107.1 140.7 182.0 209.3 240.7 276.9 318.4 366.1 Other Sales and Royalties: $ M 142.0 156.2 168.7 182.1 193.1 204.7 214.9 225.6 234.7 244.0
Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:JZP-110 Sales: $ M - - - 28.5 71.7 133.2 159.8 253.1 292.7 387.8 JZP-386 Sales: $ M - - - - - - - - - -
Total Revenue: $ M 1,176.9 1,553.3 1,998.0 2,554.3 3,174.8 3,853.2 4,552.3 5,371.6 1,662.1 1,827.6 Revenue Growth: % 34.9% 32.0% 28.6% 27.8% 24.3% 21.4% 18.1% 18.0% (69.1%) 10.0%
Operating Income (EBIT): $ M 380.8 754.7 1,003.9 1,312.6 1,657.1 2,044.0 2,424.9 2,870.7 739.4 825.0 Operating (EBIT) Margin: % 32.4% 48.6% 50.2% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.3% 53.4% 44.5% 45.1%
Net Income: $ M 272.4$ 587.6$ 792.0$ 1,061.5$ 1,344.0$ 1,675.9$ 1,988.4$ 2,353.9$ 606.3$ 676.5$ Effective Tax Rate: % 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Diluted Shares Outstanding: $ M 64.4 67.5 70.6 73.9 77.4 81.0 84.8 88.8 92.9 97.2Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $ as Stated 4.23$ 8.71$ 11.21$ 14.36$ 17.37$ 20.69$ 23.45$ 26.52$ 6.53$ 6.96$
EBITDA: $ M 642.0$ 888.6$ 1,137.7$ 1,452.2$ 1,800.7$ 2,179.4$ 2,571.1$ 3,030.4$ 860.0$ 949.4$ EBITDA Margin: % 54.6% 57.2% 56.9% 56.9% 56.7% 56.6% 56.5% 56.4% 51.7% 52.0%
9
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Share Figures)
Goldman Stanley
Revenue and EBITDA: Management Case vs. Base Case
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23$0.0 B
$1.0 B
$2.0 B
$3.0 B
$4.0 B
$5.0 B
$6.0 B
$1.2 B$1.6 B
$2.0 B$2.6 B
$3.2 B$3.9 B
$4.6 B
$5.4 B
$1.7 B $1.8 B
Revenue Projections
Management
Base
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23$0.0 B
$0.5 B
$1.0 B
$1.5 B
$2.0 B
$2.5 B
$3.0 B
$3.5 B
$0.6 B$0.9 B
$1.1 B$1.5 B
$1.8 B$2.2 B
$2.6 B
$3.0 B
$0.9 B $0.9 B
EBITDA Projections
Management
Base
10
($ USD in Billions)
Goldman Stanley
Projected Xyrem Sales – Pricing vs. Patient Growth
11
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley
Valuation Summary – Base Case
All market data as of May 9, 2014
Given that Jaguar’s revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and EBITDA margins exceed those of its peer companies, we believe a valuation in the 75th percentile to maximum of the set is justified
$0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 $300.00
7.0% - 9.0% Discount Rate, (1.0%) – 1.0% Terminal FCF Growth Rate:
LTM EV / EBITDA:
LTM EV / Revenue:
2015-12-31 E Reported P / E:
2014-12-31 E Reported P / E:
LTM Reported P / E:
2015-12-31 E EV / EBITDA:
2014-12-31 E EV / EBITDA:
LTM EV / EBITDA:
2015-12-31 E EV / Revenue:
2014-12-31 E EV / Revenue:
LTM EV / Revenue:
Implied Share Price
25th to Median
Median to 75th
Public Company Comparables:
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis:
Precedent Transactions:
Jaguar Current Share Price(1):
12(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
($ USD in Dollars as Stated)
Goldman Stanley
Valuation Summary – Management Case
All market data as of May 9, 2014
The rest of this discussion will utilize the Management Case projections; these figures imply a valuation closer to $200 per share
$0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 $300.00
7.0% - 9.0% Discount Rate, (1.0%) – 1.0% Terminal FCF Growth Rate:
LTM EV / EBITDA:
LTM EV / Revenue:
2015-12-31 E Reported P / E:
2014-12-31 E Reported P / E:
LTM Reported P / E:
2015-12-31 E EV / EBITDA:
2014-12-31 E EV / EBITDA:
LTM EV / EBITDA:
2015-12-31 E EV / Revenue:
2014-12-31 E EV / Revenue:
LTM EV / Revenue:
Implied Share Price
25th to Median
Median to 75th
Public Company Comparables:
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis:
Precedent Transactions:
13
Jaguar Current Share Price(1):
(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
($ USD in Dollars as Stated)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $2 Billion
14(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
($ USD in Billions)
Comparable Public Companies – Revenue and EBITDA, CY 2014E – CY 2015E(1)
$0.0 B
$0.5 B
$1.0 B
$1.5 B
$2.0 B
$2.5 B
$3.0 B
CY 2014E
CY 2015E
($1.0 B)
($0.5 B)
$0.0 B
$0.5 B
$1.0 B
$1.5 B
CY 2014E
CY 2015E
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $2 Billion
Comparable Public Companies – Growth and Valuation Multiples, CY 2014E – CY 2015E (1)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120% 111%
38%
6%
32%23%
11%21% 18%
Revenue Growth, CY 2014E - CY 2015E
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
NM NM
137%
38%
14% 10%
41%
22%
EBITDA Growth, CY 2014E - CY 2015E
0.0 x
2.0 x
4.0 x
6.0 x
8.0 x
10.0 x
12.0 x
14.0 x
11.6 x
9.7 x
1.9 x
5.9 x
4.1 x3.4 x
4.8 x
11.6 x
CY 2015E Revenue Multiples
0.0 x
10.0 x
20.0 x
30.0 x
40.0 x
50.0 x
60.0 x
70.0 x
80.0 x
90.0 x
100.0 x85.8 x
NM9.2 x 10.2 x
20.5 x
6.8 x 10.0 x
22.7 x
CY 2015E EBITDA Multiples
15(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Precedent TransactionsNorth American Pharmaceutical Sellers with Between $200 Million and $2 Billion In LTM Revenue, Jan. 1, 2009 – May 9, 2014
Jaguar - Comparable M&A Transactions Operating Metrics Valuation MultiplesTransaction Transaction EV / EV /
Equity Enterprise LTM LTM LTM LTMAcquirer Name Target Name Date Value Value Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA
Mallinckrodt plc Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 2014-04-07 $ 5,291 $ 4,802 $ 891 $ 517 5.4 x 9.3 xForest Laboratories Inc. Aptalis Holdings Inc. 2014-01-08 2,900 2,900 688 315 4.2 x 9.2 xShire Pharmaceutical Holdings Ireland Limited ViroPharma Inc. 2013-11-11 4,200 4,097 430 59 9.5 x 69.0 xSalix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Santarus, Inc. 2013-11-07 2,600 1,980 338 82 5.9 x 24.3 xEndo Health Solutions Inc. Paladin Labs Inc. 2013-11-05 1,600 1,348 264 93 5.1 x 14.5 xAkorn, Inc. Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc. 2013-08-27 640 536 231 48 2.3 x 11.3 xValeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. Medicis Pharmaceutical Corporation 2012-09-03 2,600 2,329 764 191 3.1 x 12.2 xTPG Capital, L.P. Par Pharmaceutical Companies Inc. 2012-07-16 1,900 1,976 1,035 237 1.9 x 8.3 xNovartis AG Fougera Pharmaceuticals Inc. 2012-05-02 1,525 1,525 429 173 3.6 x 8.8 xTakeda Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc. URL Pharma, Inc. 2012-04-11 800 800 600 76 1.3 x 10.5 xGenomma Lab Internacional SAB de CV Prestige Brands Holdings, Inc. 2012-02-21 834 1,263 403 119 3.1 x 10.6 xNestlé Health Science S.A. Prometheus Laboratories Inc. 2011-05-24 745 659 519 139 1.3 x 4.7 xPfizer Inc. King Pharmaceuticals LLC 2010-10-12 3,600 3,225 1,565 349 2.1 x 9.2 xEndo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. Qualitest Pharmaceuticals 2010-09-28 1,200 1,176 309 58 3.8 x 20.2 xCelgene Corporation Abraxis BioScience, Inc. 2010-06-30 2,923 2,789 397 (23) 7.0 x NMAstellas US Holding, Inc. OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. 2010-05-16 4,000 3,414 441 176 7.7 x 19.4 xDainippon Sumitomo Pharma America Holdings, Inc. Sepracor, Inc. 2009-09-03 2,600 2,347 1,334 306 1.8 x 7.7 xGlaxoSmithKline plc Stiefel Laboratories, Inc. 2009-04-20 3,050 3,450 900 288 3.8 x 12.0 x
Maximum 4,802$ 1,565$ 517$ 9.5 x 69.0 x75th Percentile 3,144 859 275 5.3 x 14.5 x
Median 2,154$ 480$ 156$ 3.7 x 10.6 x25th Percentile 1,284 399 78 2.1 x 9.2 x
Minimum 536 231 (23) 1.3 x 4.7 x
16
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar DCF Analysis – Free Cash Flow Projections
Projected NormalizedUnlevered Free Cash Flow Projections: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Revenue: $ M 1,176.9$ 1,553.3$ 1,998.0$ 2,554.3$ 3,174.8$ 3,853.2$ 4,552.3$ 5,371.6$ 1,662.1$ 1,827.6$ 1,919.0$ Annual Revenue Growth Rate: % 34.9% 32.0% 28.6% 27.8% 24.3% 21.4% 18.1% 18.0% (69.1%) 10.0% 5.0%
Operating Income (EBIT): $ M 380.8 754.7 1,003.9 1,312.6 1,657.1 2,044.0 2,424.9 2,870.7 739.4 825.0 964.2 Annual Operating Margin: % 32.4% 48.6% 50.2% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.3% 53.4% 44.5% 45.1% 45.0%
Less: Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest: $ M (68.5) (135.8) (180.7) (236.3) (298.3) (367.9) (436.5) (516.7) (133.1) (148.5) (173.6)
Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT): $ M 312.3 618.8 823.2 1,076.4 1,358.8 1,676.1 1,988.4 2,353.9 606.3 676.5 790.6
Total Adjustments for Non-Cash Charges: $ M 265.3 138.0 137.9 143.7 147.7 139.4 150.3 163.9 124.7 128.5 29.0
Total Changes in Operating Assets & Liabilities: $ M (32.4) (57.4) (53.3) (67.1) (75.8) (84.7) (87.2) (103.0) 453.0 (21.5) (11.0) % Change in Revenue: % (10.6%) (15.2%) (12.0%) (12.1%) (12.2%) (12.5%) (12.5%) (12.6%) (12.2%) (13.0%) (12.0%)
Less: Capital Expenditures: $ M (14.1) (20.2) (28.0) (38.3) (50.8) (65.5) (81.9) (102.1) (33.2) (38.4) (38.4) % Revenue: % 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%
Annual Unlevered Free Cash Flow: $ M 531.1 679.3 879.8 1,114.6 1,379.9 1,665.3 1,969.5 2,312.7 1,150.8 745.1 770.3 Unlevered Free Cash Flow for Remaining Quarters: $ M 464.7 679.3 879.8 1,114.6 1,379.9 1,665.3 1,969.5 2,312.7 1,150.8 745.1 770.3 Present Value of Free Cash Flow: $ M 453.2 621.5 744.8 873.2 1,000.3 1,117.0 1,222.4 1,328.2 611.6 366.4 350.5
Normal Discount Period: Year Frac. 0.647 1.647 2.647 3.647 4.647 5.647 6.647 7.647 8.647 9.647 10.647Mid-Year Discount Period: Year Frac. 0.323 1.147 2.147 3.147 4.147 5.147 6.147 7.147 8.147 9.147 10.147
Annual Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: % 79.5% 27.9% 29.5% 26.7% 23.8% 20.7% 18.3% 17.4% (50.2%) (35.2%) 3.4%
Annual EBITDA: $ M 642.0 888.6 1,137.7 1,452.2 1,800.7 2,179.4 2,571.1 3,030.4 860.0 949.4 989.1 Annual EBITDA Growth Rate: % 50.6% 38.4% 28.0% 27.6% 24.0% 21.0% 18.0% 17.9% (71.6%) 10.4% 15.0%
17
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar DCF Analysis – Implied Share Price Calculations
18
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Share Figures)
Terminal Value - Multiples Method: Terminal Value - Perpetuity Growth Method:
Baseline Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 12.0 x Baseline Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.0%Baseline Terminal Value: 11,393.4$ Baseline Terminal Value: 11,393.4$ Implied Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.0% Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 12.0 x
PV of Terminal Value: 5,389.6 PV of Terminal Value: 5,389.6 Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: 8,338.5 Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: 8,338.5
Implied Enterprise Value: 13,728.1$ Implied Enterprise Value: 13,728.1$
% of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 39.3% % of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 39.3%
Plus: Cash & Cash-Equivalents(1): 251.4$ Plus: Cash & Cash-Equivalents(1): 251.4$ Plus: Equity Investments(1): - Plus: Equity Investments(1): - Plus: Other Non-Core Assets, Net(1): - Plus: Other Non-Core Assets, Net(1): - Plus: Net Operating Losses(1): 71.4 Plus: Net Operating Losses(1): 71.4 Less: Total Debt(1): (1,198.6) Less: Total Debt(1): (1,198.6) Less: Preferred Stock(1): - Less: Preferred Stock(1): - Less: Noncontrolling Interests(1): (17.6) Less: Noncontrolling Interests(1): (17.6) Less: Unfunded Pensions(1): - Less: Unfunded Pensions(1): - Less: Capital Leases(1): - Less: Capital Leases(1): - Less: Restructuring & Other Liab.(1): - Less: Restructuring & Other Liab.(1): -
Implied Equity Value: 12,834.6 Implied Equity Value: 12,834.6
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 63.452 Diluted Shares Outstanding: 63.452
Implied Share Price from DCF: 202.27$ Implied Share Price from DCF: 202.27$ Premium / (Discount) to Current(1): 56.3% Premium / (Discount) to Current(1): 56.3%
Exercise ExerciseType: Number: Price: Dilution: Type: Number: Price: Dilution:
Options A: 0.604 7.37$ 0.582 Options A: 0.604 7.37$ 0.582Options B: 0.948 4.00 0.929 Options B: 0.948 4.00 0.929Options C: 1.590 26.09 1.385 Options C: 1.590 26.09 1.385RSUs: 1.164 1.164 RSUs: 1.164 1.164
Total: 4.306 4.060 Total: 4.306 4.060
(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar DCF Analysis – Sensitivities
19
($ USD in Dollars as Stated)
Sensitivity - Terminal FCF Growth Rate vs. Discount Rate and Implied Share Price from DCF Analysis:
Terminal FCF Growth Rate:20227.2% (2.0%) (1.5%) (1.0%) (0.5%) - 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
6.5% 207.35$ 212.35$ 218.01$ 224.49$ 231.96$ 240.68$ 250.98$ 263.34$ 278.44$ 7.0% 196.54 200.79 205.58 211.01 217.21 224.37 232.72 242.59 254.43 7.5% 186.76 190.41 194.49 199.08 204.28 210.23 217.09 225.09 234.54 8.0% 177.89 181.03 184.53 188.44 192.84 197.83 203.52 210.10 217.77 8.5% 169.78 172.51 175.53 178.88 182.63 186.84 191.62 197.09 203.39 9.0% 162.34 164.72 167.34 170.23 173.45 177.04 181.08 185.66 190.90 9.5% 155.48 157.57 159.85 162.36 165.14 168.22 171.67 175.54 179.94
10.0% 149.14 150.98 152.98 155.17 157.57 160.24 163.19 166.50 170.22 10.5% 143.26 144.88 146.64 148.55 150.65 152.97 155.52 158.36 161.53
Sensitivity - Terminal EBITDA Multiple vs. Discount Rate and Implied Share Price from DCF Analysis:
Terminal EBITDA Multiple:20227.2% 8.0 x 9.0 x 10.0 x 11.0 x 12.0 x 13.0 x 14.0 x 15.0 x 16.0 x
6.5% 192.32$ 200.44$ 208.56$ 216.68$ 224.80$ 232.92$ 241.04$ 249.16$ 257.28$ 7.0% 186.25 194.01 201.77 209.53 217.29 225.05 232.81 240.57 248.34 7.5% 180.42 187.84 195.26 202.68 210.10 217.52 224.94 232.36 239.77 8.0% 174.82 181.92 189.01 196.11 203.20 210.30 217.39 224.48 231.58 8.5% 169.45 176.23 183.02 189.80 196.59 203.37 210.16 216.94 223.73 9.0% 164.28 170.77 177.26 183.75 190.24 196.74 203.23 209.72 216.21 9.5% 159.32 165.53 171.74 177.95 184.16 190.37 196.58 202.79 209.00
10.0% 154.54 160.49 166.43 172.38 178.32 184.26 190.21 196.15 202.09 10.5% 149.96 155.65 161.33 167.02 172.71 178.40 184.09 189.78 195.47
Discount Rate (WACC):
Discount Rate (WACC):
Goldman Stanley
Other Valuation Considerations
Corporate Headquarters in Ireland and Lower Effective
Tax Rate
Alternative Valuation Methodologies May Provide
Additional Insight Into Jaguar’s Intrinsic Value
Results Implications and Examples
Jaguar’s corporate status in Ireland makes it an attractive candidate for a “tax inversion” deal
Effective tax rate of 18% vs. statutory US rate of 35-40% could effectively add billions in value for the right acquirer
Salix Pharmaceuticals: Reduced tax rate would increase CY2015E Net Income from ~$450 million to ~$567 million, and would add $2 billion to company’s Equity Value and Enterprise Value
$2 billion represents $31.52 per share for Jaguar
Premiums Paid analysis for comparable transactions indicates per-share premium of 30-40% in recent deals
Implied valuation is significantly higher than multiples analysis from comparable public companies and precedent transactions
Actavis / Forest Labs: 31% premium paid over average 10-day price prior to deal
Mallinckrodt / Cadence: 32% premium paid over average 30-day price
Salix / Santarus: 39% premium paid over average 30-day price
20
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar’s Corporate Structure Provides Advantages to PartnersIreland
Italy
U.S.A.
Bermuda
Switzerland
Jaguar Public Limited Company
Jaguar Italy S.p.A. Jaguar, Inc. Jaguar Financing I, Ltd.Jaguar Investments I
Limited
Jaguar International III Limited
Pharmelle LLC
JPI Commercial, LLCGentium S.p.A.
Gentium Gmbh
Jaguar (EUSA Pharma USA) Inc.
AxCell Biosciences Corporation
Prostagen, Inc.
21
Goldman Stanley
Other Valuation Considerations
Jaguar is also trading at a discount to recent stock price highs:
Given the stock price run-up over the past year, it may or may not be realistic to aim for the all-time high; however, the valuation methodologies imply that a per-share price in that range is plausible
22
0 M
1 M
2 M
3 M
4 M
5 M
6 M
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
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$200.00
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One-Year Price History, May 9, 2013 - May 9, 2014
Volume Traded Share Price
2014
-05-
09
Goldman Stanley
Summary Profile of Equity Shareholders
Commentary:
Gross Common Share Count: 55,751,243(1)
Major institutional investors represent approximately 40% of share ownership
Largest institutional shareholders include: Putnam: 6,102,213 (10.5%) Fidelity: 5,333,862 (9.2%) Vanguard: 3,162,658 (5.5%) Janus Capital: 2,709,782 (4.7%)
Insider ownership represents approximately 4% of shares outstanding: Seamus Mulligan (Director): 1,453,305
(2.5%) Bruce Cozadd (CEO): 471,310 (0.8%) Kathryn Falberg (ex-CFO): 95,137 (0.2%)
Given the lack of activist investors and the high percentage of shares held by traditional investment managers, the chances of a challenge to a potential deal are low
Investment Managers:
81%
Hedge Funds:9%
Individuals / Insiders:
4%
Banks / Investment Banks:
4%Other:
2%
23Source: Company proxy statements, investor filings, and Capital IQ.(1) As of March 31, 2014 10-Q filing.
Goldman Stanley
Valuation Conclusions
The company’s margins and growth rates exceed those of its peer companies, indicating that it should be valued in-line with the 75th percentile of the comparable company set
#1
This price represents a 50%+ premium to Jaguar’s current share price; greater upside might be possible with a highly complementary partner
#2
Implied value is between $170 and $240 / share, based on a conservative Discount Rate and Terminal Value and Management’s financial projections
#3
Premiums Paid indicate a median 30-day average price premium of ~40%, implying a per-share value of $190 for Jaguar
#4
“75th Percentile” Valuation is Justified
Goal: $200 / Share
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Premiums Paid Analysis
24
Goldman Stanley
Potential Strategic Partners
25
Goldman Stanley
Potential Strategic Partners
Size, ability to pay, tax/corporate headquarters status, product/pipeline, and strategic fit should all be considered
US-headquartered partners are ideal since tax rates are highest there; several Canadian and Israeli companies could also qualify since tax rates are also higher than those in the UK and Ireland
Both branded and generics companies should be considered, in light of recent M&A activity
Tier 1 Potential Partners Tier 2 Potential Partners
Market Cap: Significantly larger than Jaguar Closer to Jaguar’s size
Headquarters and Tax Status:
US-based with US corporate tax rates
US-based with US corporate tax rates
Strategic Fit: Solid product and pipeline fit Solid product and pipeline fit
26
Goldman Stanley
Potential Strategic Partners
Tier 1 Potential Partners
Tier 2 Potential Partners
27
Goldman Stanley
Overview of Tier 1 Potential Partners
$36.3
Potential Partner:
Market Cap(1):
Debt & NCI(1): Cash(1):
Enterprise Value(1):
Leverage Ratio(1):
Strategic Fit:
Ability to Pay: Comments:
$8.7 $0.3 $44.7 3.6 x
Primarily < $1B acquisitions in the past; rumors of Actavis and Forest Labs
$84.6 $32.0 $19.8 $96.8 4.3 x Primarily < $100 million
acquisitions, except for $10 billion Onyx deal
$81.7 $7.7 $7.1 $82.4 1.7 x
$121.0 $10.1 $6.5 $124.6 1.4 x
$281.0 $17.3 $29.4 $268.9 0.7 x
$62.9 $5.3 $5.2 $63.0 0.8 x
$160.2 $30.8 $20.5 $170.5 1.9 x
$44.0 $17.5 $0.6 $60.9 5.6 x
$186.1 $37.5 $33.9 $189.6 1.7 x
Last deals over $1 billion took place 2-3 years ago; smaller recent acquisitions
Last major deal was Pharmasset ($11 billion) two years ago
Typically does only very small “tuck-in” deals
Has completed primarily smaller, “tuck-in” M&A deals over the past 2-3 years
Last major deals were 5 years ago; rumors of interest in Cubist Pharmaceuticals
Mostly minor deals except for $8.7 billion acquisition of Bausch & Lomb last year
No major recent deals; announced $10 billion buy-back plan last year
28(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
($ USD in Billions)
Goldman Stanley (1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
Business Segments and Product Lines
Business Description Management Team
Financial Information(1)
($ USD in Billions)
Key Partners
One-Year Price History(1)
Company Profile: Allergan
Allergan
Allergan plc develops, manufactures, and distributes generic, branded, biosimilar, and over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products. It operates in three segments: North American Brands, North American Generics and International, and Anda Distribution.
The company also develops and out-licenses generic pharmaceutical products primarily in Europe through its third-party business, and it sells its generic and brand pharmaceutical products primarily to drug wholesalers, retailers, and distributors.
North American Brands – Provides patented and off-patent trademarked pharmaceutical products primarily under the Dalvance, Bystolic, Canasa, Carafate, Daliresp, Fetzima, Linzess, Namenda, Namenda XR, Saphris, Teflaro, Viibryd, Actonel, Asacol HD, Atelvia, Delzicol, Doryx, Estrace Cream, Enablex, Lo Loestrin Fe, and Minastrin 24 Fe brands.
North American Generics and International – Develops, manufactures, and sells generic, branded generic, and OTC pharmaceutical products.
Anda Distribution – Distributes generic and brand pharmaceutical products primarily to independent pharmacies, pharmacy chains and buying groups, and physician’s offices.
Amgen – Biosimilar versions of Herceptin, Avastin, Rituxan/Mab Thera, and Erbitux
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals – Commercial development of Linzessfor
Sanofi-Aventis
Trevena – Development of TRV027
Paul Bisaro Executive ChairmanBrenton Saunders CEOMaria Hilado CFOJames D’Arecca CAOA. Robert BaileyCLOJonathon Kellerman EVPJohn Kelly EVPSigurd Kirk EVP, Bus. Dev.
Market Cap: $36.3Cash: $0.3Debt, Preferred & NCI:$8.7LTM Revenue: $9.4LTM EBITDA: $2.4CY 2014E Revenue:$12.9CY 2014E EBITDA:$3.8CY 2015E Revenue:$13.5CY 2015E EBITDA:$4.2
Headquarters: Parsippany, NJEmployees: 21,600Founded: 1983
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($ USD in Billions)
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Company Profile: Amgen
Headquarters: CaliforniaEmployees: 17,900Founded: 1980
Market Cap: $84.6Cash: $19.8Debt, Preferred & NCI:$32.0LTM Revenue: $19.0LTM EBITDA: $7.6CY 2014E Revenue:$20.2CY 2014E EBITDA:$9.1CY 2015E Revenue:$21.4CY 2015E EBITDA:$11.2
Amgen
Robert BradwayChairman & CEODavid Meline CFOM. Balachandran EVP, OperationsAnetta L. Such CAODiana McKenzie CIOCynthia Patton CCO
Amgen Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. It focuses on the treatment of illness in the areas of oncology, hematology, inflammation, bone health, nephrology, cardiovascular, and general medicine.
The company serves pharmaceutical wholesale distributors; and physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies, as well as consumers. It also develops various products that are in various stages of clinical trials.
Neulasta – A pegylated protein to decrease the incidence of infection associated with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in cancer patients
NEUPOGEN – A recombinant-methionyl human granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for reducing the incidence of infection as manifested by febrile neutropenia for patients with non-myeloid malignancies
Enbrel – Treatment for rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis in adult patients
Other Products – EPOGEN (Dialysis), Aranesp (anemia), XGEVA (prevention of skeletal problems), Prolia (osteoporosis), Sensipar/Mimpara (chronic kidney disease), Kyprolis (lung cancer), Nplate (thrombopoietic compound),Vectibix (human monoclonal antibody), and BLINCYTO (leukemia)
Xencor – Strategic collaboration
AstraZeneca, Takeda Pharmaceutical, UCB, Novartis, Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceuticals – Collaborative agreements
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($ USD in Billions)
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One-Year Price History(1)
Company Profile: Bristol-Myers Squibb
Headquarters: New YorkEmployees: 25,000Founded: 1887
Market Cap: $81.7Cash: $7.1Debt, Preferred & NCI:$7.7LTM Revenue: $16.4LTM EBITDA: $4.3CY 2014E Revenue:$15.9CY 2014E EBITDA:$4.0CY 2015E Revenue:$16.0CY 2015E EBITDA:$3.8
Bristol-Myers-Squibb
Giovanni Caforio CEOCharles Bancroft CFOFrancis Cuss CSOPaul Von Autenried CIOAnne Nielsen CCOEmmanuel Blin SVPJoseph CaldarellaSVP/Controller
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide.
It provides chemically-synthesized drugs or small molecules, and biologics in various therapeutic areas, including virology comprising human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV); oncology; neuroscience; immunoscience; and cardiovascular.
Currently Available Products – Baraclude (Chronic hepatitis B); Daklinza (hepatitis C); Reyataz and Sustiva (HIV); Erbitux (IgG1 monoclonal antibody); Sprycel (multi-targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor); Yervoy (metastatic melanoma); Abilify (schizophrenia, bipolar mania disorder, and depressive disorder); Orencia (rheumatoid arthritis); Eliquis (stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation)
Development-Stage Products – Opdivo (human monoclonal antibody for lung cancer, renal cell cancer, and melanoma – Phase III trials); Beclabuvir (HCV – Phase III trials); Elotuzumab (multiple myeloma – Phase III trials); BMS-663068 (HIV-1)
Gilead – Licensing agreements and co-development/co-promotion agreements
Allergan – Development and commercialization
AstraZeneca, Pfizer – Co-development and co-promotion agreement
FivePrime, Ambrx, Adaptive, The Medicines Company, Tibotec – Co-development agreements
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Goldman Stanley (1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
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Financial Information(1)
($ USD in Billions)
Key Partners
One-Year Price History(1)
Company Profile: Gilead Sciences
Headquarters: CaliforniaEmployees: 7,000Founded: 1987
Market Cap: $121.0Cash: $6.5Debt, Preferred & NCI:$10.1LTM Revenue: $13.7LTM EBITDA: $7.1CY 2014E Revenue:$24.7CY 2014E EBITDA:$16.5CY 2015E Revenue:$31.2CY 2015E EBITDA:$23.3
Gilead Sciences
John Martin Chairman & CEOJohn Milligan President & COORobin Washington CFONorbert Bischofberger CSOBrett Pletcher EVPMuzammmil Mansuri EVP
Gilead Sciences, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines in areas of unmet medical need in North America, South America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It focuses on HIV treatment, liver disease, certain cancers, and other conditions such as cystic fibrosis.
The company markets its products through its commercial teams and/or in conjunction with third-party distributors and corporate partners.
HIV-Related – Stribild, Complera/Eviplera, Atripla, Truvada, Viread, Emtriva, Tybost, and Vitekta for treatment in adults
Liver Disease – Harvoni, Sovaldi, Viread, and Hepsera
Other Products – Zydelig (certain blood cancers); Letairis (pulmonary arterial hypertension); Ranexa (chronic angina); Lexiscan/Rapiscan (pharmacologic stress agent); Cayston (cystic fibrosis); Tamiflu (influenza A and B); AmBisome (fungal infections); Macugen (neovascular age-related macular degeneration)
Development-Stage Products – Pipeline drugs include ones targeted at HIV/AIDS, hepatitis B and hepatitis C, inflammation/oncology, and serious cardiovascular and respiratory conditions
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Janssen R&D Ireland, and Japan Tobacco Inc. – Agreements to develop and commercialize various products
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Financial Information(1)
($ USD in Billions)
Key Partners
One-Year Price History(1)
Company Profile: Johnson & Johnson
Headquarters: New JerseyEmployees: 126,500Founded: 1885
Market Cap: $281.0Cash: $29.4Debt, Preferred & NCI:$17.3LTM Revenue: $71.9LTM EBITDA: $23.7CY 2014E Revenue:$74.2CY 2014E EBITDA:$24.8CY 2015E Revenue:$70.2CY 2015E EBITDA:$23.2
Johnson & Johnson
Alex Gorsky Chairman & CEODominic CarusoCFOStephen Cosgrove CAOPaulus Stoffels CSOJoaquin Duato Pharma. Chair
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, researches and develops, manufactures, and sells various products in the health care field worldwide. It operates in three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical, and Medical Devices.
The company distributes its products to general public, retail outlets and distributors, wholesalers, hospitals, and health care professionals for prescription use in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, and clinics.
Consumer – Baby care and oral care products; skin care products such as Aveeno, Clean & Clear, Dabao, Le Petite Marseillais, Lubriderm, Neutrogena; women’s health products such as Stayfree and Carefree; Tylenol, Sudafed, Benadryl, and Zyrtec
Pharmaceutical – Various products in immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, and cardiovascular and metabolic diseases
Medical Devices – Orthopaedic, trauma, and neurological products; general surgery, and biosurgical and energy products; products to treat cardiovascular disease; infection prevention products; diagnostics products; blood glucose monitoring and insulin delivery products; and disposable contact lenses
AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and GalaxoSmithKline – Various development and distribution agreements for pipeline drugs
Takeda Pharmaceutical – Development partnership for small-molecule drugs
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Business Description Management Team
Financial Information(1)
($ USD in Billions)
Key Partners
One-Year Price History(1)
Company Profile: Eli Lilly
Headquarters: IndianaEmployees: 39,135Founded: 1876
Market Cap: $62.9Cash: $5.2Debt, Preferred & NCI:$5.3LTM Revenue: $22.2LTM EBITDA: $6.4CY 2014E Revenue:$19.4CY 2014E EBITDA:$4.6CY 2015E Revenue:$19.9CY 2015E EBITDA:$5.3
Eli Lilly
John Lechleiter Chairman & CEODerica Rice CFODonald Zakrowski CAOJan Lundberg EVPStephen Fry SVPMelissa Barnes SVPDarren Carroll SVP
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. It operates through two segments, Human Pharmaceutical Products and Animal Health Products.
Within the Pharmaceutical segment, it provides products for endocrinology, neuroscience, cancer, and other conditions. Within the Animal Health segment, it provides protein supplements, feed additives, and antibiotics for the treatment of various animal infections.
Pharmaceutical – Endocrinology products to treat diabetes; osteoporosis; human growth hormone deficiency and pediatric growth conditions; testosterone deficiency; neuroscience products; and positron emission tomography imaging of beta-amyloid neurotic plaques in adult brains; products for the treatment of non-small cell lung, colorectal, head and neck, pancreatic, metastatic breast, ovarian, bladder, and metastatic gastric cancers, as well as malignant pleural mesothelioma; and cardiovascular products for the treatment of erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia, thrombotic cardiovascular events, and cardiac ischemic complications
Animal Health – Cattle feed additives; protein supplements for cows; leanness and performance enhancers for swine, cattle, and poultry; antibiotics to treat respiratory and other diseases in cattle, swine, and poultry; anticoccidial agents for poultry; and chewable tablets that kill fleas and prevent diseases; products to treat chronic manifestations of atopic dermatitis and congestive heart failure in dogs, and chronic allergic dermatitis and kidney diseases in cats
Zymeworks – Licensing and collaboration agreement for bi-specific cancer immunotherapies
AstraZeneca – Co-development and co-commercialization agreement for Alzheimer’s disease treatment
Hanmi Pharmaceutical – Licensing and collaboration agreement for autoimmune diseases
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Business Segments and Product Lines
Business Description Management Team
Financial Information(1)
($ USD in Billions)
Key Partners
One-Year Price History(1)
Company Profile: Merck & Co.
Headquarters: New JerseyEmployees: 68,805Founded: 1891
Market Cap: $160.2Cash: $20.5Debt, Preferred & NCI:$30.8LTM Revenue: $43.6LTM EBITDA: $15.8CY 2014E Revenue:$41.8CY 2014E EBITDA:$14.7CY 2015E Revenue:$39.8CY 2015E EBITDA:$20.9
Merck & Co.
Kenneth FrazierChairman & CEORobert Davis CFORita Karachun SVPClark Golestani EVP & CIOMichael HolstonEVPWillie Deese EVPRichard DeLucaEVPRoger Perlmutter EVP
Merck & Co., Inc. provides health care solutions worldwide. The company offer therapeutic and preventive agents, neuromuscular blocking agents for use in surgery, anti-bacterial products for skin and skin structure infections, and a variety of cancer drugs and vaccines.
It also offers animal health products and vaccines, antibiotics, ointments, and other drugs to prevent disease. The company serves drug wholesalers and retailers, hospitals, government entities and agencies, physicians, physician distributors, veterinarians, distributors, and animal producers.
Pharmaceutical – Therapeutic and preventive agents to treat cardiovascular, type 2 diabetes, asthma, nasal allergy symptoms, allergic rhinitis, chronic hepatitis C virus, HIV-1 infection, fungal infections, intra-abdominal infections, hypertension, arthritis and pain, inflammatory, osteoporosis, male pattern hair loss, and fertility diseases; neuromuscular blocking agents for use in surgery; anti-bacterial products for skin and skin structure infections; antidepressants; drugs for cancer patients and vaccines for various diseases
Animal Health – Drugs for pneumonia in cattle, horses, and swine; vaccines for poultry; parasiticide for sea lice in salmon; and antibiotics for, and vaccines against bacterial and viral disease in fish; companion animal products, such as diabetes mellitus treatment drugs and vaccines for dogs and cats; ointments for acute and chronic otitis; anthelmintic products; chewable tablets to kill fleas and ticks in dogs; and products for protection against bites from fleas, ticks, mosquitoes, and sandflies
AstraZeneca – Partnership to conduct joint phase 1 clinical trials for treating solid cancer tumors
Celera – Co-development partnership for new osteoporosis treatment
Zymeworks – Co-development partnership for novel bi-specific therapeutic antibodies
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Goldman Stanley (1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
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Business Description Management Team
Financial Information(1)
($ USD in Billions)
Key Partners
One-Year Price History(1)
Company Profile: Valeant
Headquarters: QuebecEmployees: 16,800Founded: 1983
Market Cap: $44.0Cash: $0.6Debt, Preferred & NCI:$17.5LTM Revenue: $6.6LTM EBITDA: $3.2CY 2014E Revenue:$8.4CY 2014E EBITDA:$4.0CY 2015E Revenue:$10.6CY 2015E EBITDA:$5.4
Valeant
Michael PearsonChairman & CEORobert Rosiello CFORobert Butz VP, Medical AffairsRobert Chai-Onn EVPDeborah Jorn EVPAri Kellen EVPAnne Whitaker EVPPavel Mirovsky President (Europe)Calvin Roberts CMO
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter products, and medical devices worldwide.
The Company focuses on eye health, dermatology and neurology therapeutic classes, primarily on branded generics, OTC products and medical devices. The Company operates through two segments: developed markets and emerging markets.
It has a direct or indirect sales and marketing presence in over 100 countries.
Pharmaceuticals – Solodyn (oral antibiotic), Wellbutrin XL, Jublia, Xenazine (Huntington’s disease), Arestin, Zovirax, Syprine, Elidel, Prolensa, and Duromine
Over the Counter – PreserVision (supplement), CeraVe (skin conditions), ReNu Multiplus (contact lenses), Biotrue, Ocuvite, Boston solution, and Artelac (eye drops)
Medical Devices – SofLens (disposable contact lenses), PureVision, Akreos and Crystalens, and surgical equipment products, such as the VICTUS femtosecond laser and the Stellaris PC, a vitreoretinal and cataract surgery system
Generics – Tobramycin, Cardizem CD (hypertension and angina), Retin-A Micro (acne), and Latanoprost (glaucoma and ocular hypertension)
GlaxoSmithKline – Worldwide collaboration agreement for ezogabine / retigabine (epilepsy)
Biovail – Supplier for Xenazine tablets (Huntington’s disease)
Kadmon Pharmaceuticals – Development and commercialization agreement for taribavirin and ribavirin
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Business Description Management Team
Financial Information(1)
($ USD in Billions)
Key Partners
One-Year Price History(1)
Company Profile: Pfizer
Headquarters: New YorkEmployees: 78,300Founded: 1849
Market Cap: $186.1Cash: $33.9Debt, Preferred & NCI:$37.5LTM Revenue: $50.5LTM EBITDA: $22.4CY 2014E Revenue:$49.4CY 2014E EBITDA:$20.7CY 2015E Revenue:$48.3CY 2015E EBITDA:$20.4
Pfizer
Ian Read Chairman & CEOFrank D’Amelio CFO & EVPMichael Ehlers CSORady Johnson EVPRobert AbrahamGroup SVPMorris Birnbaum CSO
Pfizer Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells healthcare products worldwide. The company operates through the Global Innovative Pharmaceutical (GIP); Global Vaccines, Oncology and Consumer Healthcare (VOC); and Global Established Pharmaceutical (GEP) segments.
Its key biopharmaceuticals include Lyrica, Prevnar, Enbrel, Celebrex, Lipitor, Viagra, Zyvox, Sutent, EpiPen, Toviaz, Tygacil, Rapamune, Xalkori, Inlyta, Norvasc, the Premarin family of products, Eliquis, and Xeljanz. Its biotechnology products include BeneFIX, Genotropin, ReFacto, Xyntha, and Enbrel.
Global Innovative Pharmaceutical – Develops, registers, and commercializes medicines for therapeutic areas, including inflammation, cardiovascular/metabolic, neuroscience and pain, rare diseases, and women’s/men’s health
Global Vaccines, Oncology, and Consumer Healthcare – Develops and commercializes vaccines, oncology products, over-the-counter dietary supplements, pain management products, gastrointestinal products, respiratory products, and personal care products
Global Established Pharmaceutical – Offers patent-protected products that have lost marketing exclusivity in various markets, generic pharmaceuticals, and sterile injectable and biosimilar development products
Bristol-Myers Squibb – Development and commercialization agreement for Eliquis (thromboembolic events)
Merck – Collaboration agreement for novel anti-cancer combination regimen
Saniona – Drug discovery development and collaboration agreement for neurological disorders
Philogen – Development and commercialization agreement for antibody and small molecule targeted therapies
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Goldman Stanley
Process Recommendations
38
Goldman Stanley
Key Recommendations
We recommend engaging in targeted discussions with the Tier 1 candidates and assessing their receptiveness to M&A discussions
At the same time, Goldman Stanley will reach out to Tier 2 candidates and introduce Jaguar as a potential partner
M&A process with Tier 1 candidates will take significantly longer due to the scale of the companies, so we recommend conducting both processes simultaneously
Depending on responses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates, Goldman Stanley and Jaguar may do additional research to determine other potential partners and then approach them
Targeted Sell-Side M&A Broad Sell-Side M&A
< 5 potential partners 10 – 100 potential partners
6 – 12 months Time required is highly variable
Close-ended Iterative process
Higher success probability Lower success probability
39
Goldman Stanley
Process Recommendations
Combination of targeted discussions plus broader search conducted in background maximizes success probability and minimizes disruption to Jaguar
Additional parties contacted depend on responsiveness of Tier 1 and Tier 2 partners
Interested parties would sign NDAs and then proceed into due diligence and valuation discussions with Jaguar
BroadMarketing
RECOMMENDED
Specialized Negotiations With
One Party
Highly TargetedProcess
Broad M&A Process
Targeted Discussions +
Broader Search
40
Goldman Stanley
Targeted Discussions – Roles and Responsibilities
Phase I:Organization
Phase II:Contact and Marketing
Phase III:Business Due
Diligence, Synergy Discussions, and
Initial Bids
Phase IV:Final Negotiations,
Confirmatory Diligence, and
Signings
Goldman Stanley Legal
Determine potential partners
Finalize projections, CIM, and mgm’t presentation
Contact partners and negotiate NDAs
Schedule management meetings
Conduct management meetings and solicit bids
Discuss synergies and facilitate diligence
Review bids from potential partners
Negotiate terms of DA with top partners
Management Board
Review draft DA
Identify legal issues/concerns
Assist in NDA negotiations
Assist in compiling legal diligence items
Assist in reviewing initial bids and follow-up diligence lists for legal items
Review bids, negotiate terms of DA, and assist with confirmatory diligence
Determine potential partners
Finalize projections, CIM, and mgm’t presentation
Prepare for management meetings
Contact potential partners (if appropriate)
Formulate synergies
Attend management meetings
Answer diligence requests
Review bids and assist with diligence
Discuss contracts
Determine process and objectives
Approve Tier 1 and Tier 2 partners to approach
Receive process updates
Provide input/direction if required
Receive process updates
Provide input/direction if required
Review bids and approve agreement, if appropriate
41
Goldman Stanley
Process Timeline
Depending on the responsiveness of Tier 1 and Tier 2 partners, the process may take between 6 and 9 months to complete:
Six-Month Timeline: JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
Phase II
Phase III
Phase IPhase I:
Organization
Phase II:Contact and Marketing
Phase III:Business Due Diligence, Synergy
Discussions, and Initial Bids
Phase IV:Final Negotiations, Confirmatory
Diligence, and SigningsPhase IV
42
Goldman Stanley
Appendix
43
Goldman Stanley
Xyrem and Erwinaze Projections – Management
ProjectedRevenue Assumptions: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Xyrem Assumptions: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Total Market Size (# Potential Patients) - Xyrem: # People 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000 157,000# Patients On Medication at End of Year: # PeopleAverage # of Patients Throughout the Year: # People 12,560 15,700 18,840 21,980 25,120 28,260 31,400 34,540 37,680 37,680
Growth Rate in # of Patients: % 18.2% 25.0% 20.0% 16.7% 14.3% 12.5% 11.1% 10.0% 9.1% –
% of Market on Xyrem Medication: % 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 24.0%Post-Toggle % of Market on Xyrem Medication: % 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 24.0%
Annual Price Per Patient - Xyrem: $ as Stated 61,598$ 68,990$ 77,269$ 86,541$ 95,195$ 104,715$ 113,092$ 122,139$ 10,000$ 10,000$ Growth Rate in Price per Patient: % 15.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0%Post-Toggle Growth Rate in Price per Patient: % 15.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Xyrem - Revenue: $ M 773.7$ 1,083.1$ 1,455.7$ 1,902.2$ 2,391.3$ 2,959.2$ 3,551.1$ 4,218.7$ 376.8$ 376.8$ Annual Growth Rate: % 35.9% 40.0% 34.4% 30.7% 25.7% 23.8% 20.0% 18.8% (91.1%) –
Erwinaze Assumptions: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Total Market Size (# Potential Patients) - Erwinaze: # People 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600Average # of Patients on Erwinaze: # People 612 684 756 828 900 900 972 972 1,044 1,044
Growth Rate in # of Patients: % 13.3% 11.8% 10.5% 9.5% 8.7% – 8.0% – 7.4% –
% of Market on Erwinaze Medication: % 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 23.0% 25.0% 25.0% 27.0% 27.0% 29.0% 29.0%
Annual Price Per Patient - Erwinaze: $ as Stated 332,368$ 342,339$ 352,609$ 363,187$ 374,083$ 385,305$ 396,864$ 408,770$ 421,033$ 433,664$ Growth Rate in Price per Patient: % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Erwinaze - Revenue: $ M 203.4$ 234.2$ 266.6$ 300.7$ 336.7$ 346.8$ 385.8$ 397.3$ 439.6$ 452.7$ Annual Growth Rate: % 16.7% 15.1% 13.8% 12.8% 12.0% 3.0% 11.2% 3.0% 10.6% 3.0%
44
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Patient Figures)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Income Statement – Management Case
ProjectedIncome Statement: Units: FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Revenue:Existing Products:
Xyrem Sales: $ M 773.7$ 1,083.1$ 1,455.7$ 1,902.2$ 2,391.3$ 2,959.2$ 3,551.1$ 4,218.7$ 376.8$ 376.8$ Erwinaze Sales: $ M 203.4 234.2 266.6 300.7 336.7 346.8 385.8 397.3 439.6 452.7 Defitelio Sales: $ M 57.8 79.8 107.1 140.7 182.0 209.3 240.7 276.9 318.4 366.1 Other Sales and Royalties: $ M 142.0 156.2 168.7 182.1 193.1 204.7 214.9 225.6 234.7 244.0
Risk-Adjusted Pipeline Drug Sales:JZP-110 Sales: $ M - - - 28.5 71.7 133.2 159.8 253.1 292.7 387.8 JZP-386 Sales: $ M - - - - - - - - - -
Total Revenue: $ M 1,176.9 1,553.3 1,998.0 2,554.3 3,174.8 3,853.2 4,552.3 5,371.6 1,662.1 1,827.6 Revenue Growth: % 34.9% 32.0% 28.6% 27.8% 24.3% 21.4% 18.1% 18.0% (69.1%) 10.0%
Total Cost of Product Sales: $ M 111.8 147.6 189.9 242.8 301.7 366.2 432.6 510.5 158.0 173.7 Gross Profit: $ M 1,065.0 1,405.6 1,808.1 2,311.5 2,873.1 3,487.0 4,119.6 4,861.1 1,504.2 1,653.9
Gross Margin: % 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 90.5%
Operating Expenses:Selling, General, and Administrative: $ M 376.6 466.0 614.8 802.8 1,015.9 1,252.3 1,499.6 1,790.5 559.9 621.4 Research and Development: $ M 51.1 58.8 67.6 74.4 81.8 90.0 94.5 99.3 104.2 106.8 Acquired In-Process Research & Development: $ M 127.0 - - - - - - - - - Intangible Asset Amortization: $ M 129.5 126.2 121.8 121.7 118.2 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.7
Total Operating Expenses: $ M 684.2 651.0 804.2 998.9 1,216.0 1,443.0 1,694.8 1,990.5 764.7 828.9
Operating Income (EBIT): $ M 380.8 754.7 1,003.9 1,312.6 1,657.1 2,044.0 2,424.9 2,870.7 739.4 825.0 Operating (EBIT) Margin: % 32.4% 48.6% 50.2% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.3% 53.4% 44.5% 45.1%
Other Income / (Expense):Interest Expense, Net: $ M (48.6) (38.1) (38.1) (18.1) (18.1) (0.2) - - - - Losses and Other Items: $ M - - - - - - - - - - Goodwill Impairment: $ M - - - - - - - - - -
Total Other Income / (Expense): $ M (48.6) (38.1) (38.1) (18.1) (18.1) (0.2) - - - -
Income From Continuing Operations (Before Taxes): $ M 332.2 716.6 965.8 1,294.5 1,639.0 2,043.8 2,424.9 2,870.7 739.4 825.0 Tax Provision / (Benefit): $ M 59.8 129.0 173.8 233.0 295.0 367.9 436.5 516.7 133.1 148.5
Income From Continuing Operations: $ M 272.4 587.6 792.0 1,061.5 1,344.0 1,675.9 1,988.4 2,353.9 606.3 676.5
Income from Discontinued Operations: $ M - - - - - - - - - -
Net Income: $ M 272.4$ 587.6$ 792.0$ 1,061.5$ 1,344.0$ 1,675.9$ 1,988.4$ 2,353.9$ 606.3$ 676.5$ Effective Tax Rate: % 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Diluted Shares Outstanding: $ M 64.4 67.5 70.6 73.9 77.4 81.0 84.8 88.8 92.9 97.2Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $ as Stated 4.23$ 8.71$ 11.21$ 14.36$ 17.37$ 20.69$ 23.45$ 26.52$ 6.53$ 6.96$
EBITDA: $ M 642.0$ 888.6$ 1,137.7$ 1,452.2$ 1,800.7$ 2,179.4$ 2,571.1$ 3,030.4$ 860.0$ 949.4$ EBITDA Margin: % 54.6% 57.2% 56.9% 56.9% 56.7% 56.6% 56.5% 56.4% 51.7% 52.0%
45(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
($ USD in Millions except for $ per Share Figures)
Goldman Stanley
Jaguar Comparable Public Companies Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies That Sell Primarily Branded Drugs, with LTM Revenue Between $500 Million and $2 Billion
Operating Statistics Capitalization Projected ProjectedEquity Enterprise Revenue EBITDA Reported Net Income Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Company Name Value(1) Value(1) LTM 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 LTM 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 LTM 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 Growth Growth LTM 2014-12-31 2015-12-31Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 31,143$ 29,697$ 1,779$ 2,171$ 2,569$ 697$ 1,074$ 1,306$ 330$ 472$ 1,123$ 18.3% 21.6% 39.2% 49.5% 50.8%Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. 15,689 14,079 1,002 574 1,211 (331) (478) 164 (369) (538) 119 111.0% (134.3%) (33.0%) (83.3%) 13.5%BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. 9,103 8,769 572 655 905 (108) (80) 65 (175) (142) 47 38.2% (181.3%) (18.9%) (12.2%) 7.2%Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. 7,988 9,538 1,116 1,649 1,995 281 680 957 77 361 444 21.0% 40.6% 25.2% 41.3% 48.0%Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 5,866 6,038 1,086 1,206 1,483 195 259 295 (0) 26 48 22.9% 13.7% 17.9% 21.5% 19.9%United Therapeutics Corporation 5,803 4,723 1,161 1,255 1,387 445 629 690 250 400 441 10.5% 9.7% 38.3% 50.1% 49.7%The Medicines Company 1,699 1,533 709 775 823 85 70 166 22 (0) 106 6.1% 136.6% 12.0% 9.1% 20.2%
Maximum 31,143$ 29,697$ 1,779$ 2,171$ 2,569$ 697$ 1,074$ 1,306$ 330$ 472$ 1,123$ 111.0% 136.6% 39.2% 50.1% 50.8%75th Percentile 12,396 11,809 1,138 1,452 1,739 363 655 823 163 380 443 30.6% 31.1% 31.7% 45.4% 48.9%Median 7,988$ 8,769$ 1,086$ 1,206$ 1,387$ 195$ 259$ 295$ 22$ 26$ 119$ 21.0% 13.7% 17.9% 21.5% 20.2%25th Percentile 5,834 5,381 856 715 1,058 (11) (5) 165 (88) (71) 77 14.4% (62.3%) (3.4%) (1.6%) 16.7%Minimum 1,699 1,533 572 574 823 (331) (478) 65 (369) (538) 47 6.1% (181.3%) (33.0%) (83.3%) 7.2%
Jaguar 8,196$ 9,089$ 923$ 1,177$ 1,553$ 423$ 642$ 889$ 80$ 272$ 588$ 32.0% 38.4% 45.8% 54.6% 57.2%
Valuation Statistics Capitalization Enterprise Value / Enterprise Value / Equity Enterprise Revenue(1) EBITDA(1) P / E Multiple(1)
Company Name Value(1) Value(1) LTM 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 LTM 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 LTM 2014-12-31 2015-12-31Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 31,143$ 29,697$ 16.7 x 13.7 x 11.6 x 42.6 x 27.7 x 22.7 x 94.4 x 66.0 x 27.7 xVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. 15,689 14,079 14.1 x 24.5 x 11.6 x NM NM 85.8 x NM NM NMBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. 9,103 8,769 15.3 x 13.4 x 9.7 x NM NM NM NM NM NMSalix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. 7,988 9,538 8.5 x 5.8 x 4.8 x 34.0 x 14.0 x 10.0 x NM 22.1 x 18.0 xCubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 5,866 6,038 5.6 x 5.0 x 4.1 x 31.0 x 23.3 x 20.5 x NM NM NMUnited Therapeutics Corporation 5,803 4,723 4.1 x 3.8 x 3.4 x 10.6 x 7.5 x 6.8 x 23.2 x 14.5 x 13.2 xThe Medicines Company 1,699 1,533 2.2 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 18.0 x 21.8 x 9.2 x 76.9 x NM 16.1 x
Maximum 31,143$ 29,697$ 16.7 x 24.5 x 11.6 x 42.6 x 27.7 x 85.8 x 94.4 x 66.0 x 27.7 x75th Percentile 12,396 11,809 14.7 x 13.5 x 10.6 x 34.0 x 23.3 x 22.2 x 85.6 x 44.1 x 20.4 xMedian 7,988$ 8,769$ 8.5 x 5.8 x 4.8 x 31.0 x 21.8 x 15.2 x 76.9 x 22.1 x 17.0 x25th Percentile 5,834 5,381 4.8 x 4.4 x 3.7 x 18.0 x 14.0 x 9.4 x 50.1 x 18.3 x 15.4 xMinimum 1,699 1,533 2.2 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 10.6 x 7.5 x 6.8 x 23.2 x 14.5 x 13.2 x
Jaguar 8,196$ 9,089$ 9.8 x 7.7 x 5.9 x 21.5 x 14.2 x 10.2 x NM 30.1 x 13.9 x
46(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
($ USD in Millions)
Goldman Stanley
Discount Rate Calculations - Assumptions(1):Risk-Free Rate: 2.62%Equity Risk Premium: 7.00%Pre-Tax Cost of Debt: 3.42%Cost of Preferred Stock: –
Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation:Levered Preferred Equity Unlevered
Name Beta(1) Debt(1) % Debt Stock(1) % Preferred Value(1) % Equity Tax Rate BetaAlexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 0.64 93.5$ 0.3% -$ – 31,142.6$ 99.7% 17.0% 0.64Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. 0.35 473.4 2.9% - – 15,689.4 97.1% 20.0% 0.34BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. 0.92 828.4 8.3% - – 9,102.5 91.7% 27.0% 0.86Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. 1.18 1,944.4 19.6% - – 7,987.9 80.4% 35.0% 1.02Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 0.65 945.2 13.9% - – 5,865.8 86.1% 27.0% 0.58United Therapeutics Corporation 1.44 70.3 1.2% - – 5,802.8 98.8% 35.0% 1.43The Medicines Company 0.79 263.0 13.4% - – 1,699.3 86.6% 36.0% 0.72
Median: 0.79 473.4$ 8.3% -$ – 7,987.9$ 91.7% 27.0% 0.72
Jaguar 1.05
Jaguar - Levered Beta & WACC Calculation:Unlevered Preferred Equity Levered
Beta Debt(1) % Debt Stock(1) % Preferred Value(1) % Equity Tax Rate BetaCurrent Capital Structure: 0.72 1,198.6$ 12.8% -$ – 8,196.0$ 87.2% 18.0% 0.81 "Optimal" Capital Structure: 0.72 783.6 8.3% - – 8,611.0 91.7% 18.0% 0.77
Cost of Equity Based on Comparables, Current Capital Structure: 8.26%Cost of Equity Based on Comparables, "Optimal" Capital Structure: 8.03%Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta: 9.97%
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
WACC, Current Capital Structure: 7.56%WACC, Current Capital Structure and Historical Cost of Equity: 9.06%WACC, "Optimal" Capital Structure: 7.59%
Average WACC Produced by All Methods: 8.07%
47(1) Financial data as of May 9, 2014.
($ USD in Millions)
Jaguar DCF Analysis – WACC Calculation