ARE YOU AN EXPERIENCED EQUITIES TRADER WHO’S LOOKING … · 2017. 10. 23. · How To Gain An Edge...

How To Gain An Edge In Your Trading P.1

ARE YOU AN EXPERIENCED EQUITIES TRADER WHO’S LOOKING FOR BETTER RETURNS?

Dear Investor,

As traders, we all want an edge. That secret sauce which will get us better returns on our money.

The ability to pick the eyes out of the market. Choose the right stocks. Buy and sell at optimal points.

If you’ve been trading a while you know it’s easy to make money when times are good. However

there’s still a temptation to hold onto stocks longer than you should (either on the way up or down)

and lose money as a result.

But when markets are volatile, it takes real skill and possibly nerves of steel to survive and even

prosper.

Remember, no matter what the conditions, someone is making or losing money. The question is

which side of the equation do you fall on?

My name is Michael Gable.

I’ve been in the finance industry since 2005. First with Macquarie Bank, then Novus Capital and finally

running our own consultancy, Fairmont Equities.

As a young executive at Macquarie Bank, I experienced how easy it was to make money when the

market was going up.

However when the GFC hit, I quickly experienced how tough it can be on the way down.

The brilliance of Macquarie’s equity analysts and their impressive fundamental research was

suddenly useless. Their complex spread sheets were unable to cope with the changing environment.

Disillusioned, I moved on to a boutique trading firm which was solely focused on using technical

analysis to make investment decisions.

Although I had previously dismissed technical analysis out of hand, I now started to understand its

power and how it can help me understand market direction as driven by investor’s behaviour.

However, I quickly realised though that it was not the silver bullet I was looking for. The results were

very good but they could be better.

I cast back to my days as an engineering student to concepts like data fusion and started combining

various fundamental and technical analytical techniques in my trading. The improvements were


startling and impressive.

I took what I learnt and created Fairmont Equities where we provide our clients with the most effective

ways to invest in the Australian share market.

Having worked with numerous investors I’ve discovered every one of us is prone to make 5 major

mistakes when investing our own money.

See if you can relate…

Claim your FREE subscription to our regular stock market updates.

We’ll demonstrate how we actively invest in the markets. You’ll watch over our

shoulders as we make decisions, often contrary to conventional wisdom.

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(http://fairmontequities.com/)

https://fairmontequities.com/


THE TOP 5 MISTAKES EVERY INVESTOR MAKES AT SOME POINT

1. Getting emotional

We all do it. Money is an emotive topic. Especially if it’s our own. But being emotional leads to

making bad judgement calls where you lose money unnecessarily. The best defence against this

is to have an experienced advisor who acts as a counterbalance to help you keep a level head in

volatile times.

2. Putting too many eggs in one basket

Often we see investors placing too much of their future wealth in the fortunes of one company.

Even the best get it wrong so intelligent diversification is crucial.

3. Not having a plan

You wouldn’t drive from Sydney to Melbourne without thinking about the route. But it’s surprising

how many people “play” the stock market with no idea of what they really want to accomplish.

Determine your goals and circumstances and invest accordingly.

4. Being greedy/not letting go

Stock prices can overshoot and come crashing back to Earth. Know when to take a profit.

Conversely, know when to get rid of a losing trade. This comes back to mastering point 1 – avoid

getting emotional.

5. Not doing your research

Perform some fundamental and technical analysis. Just like having any plan is better than none,

the more research the better. However, there are no certainties in investing so at some point you

need to put down the research and pull the trigger!

Now we’ve covered those, let’s look at how you should go about investing to get the best possible

returns on your hard earned capital.

Traditionally, there are two schools of thought when it comes to investing in equities.


FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

We’ll cover both.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS – THE WARREN BUFFET APPROACH

As the name implies, you’re looking at the fundamental strengths of an organisation. You evaluate

the stock by measuring its intrinsic value by analysing its financial qualities.

You identity certain macro and company/management factors that can affect a company’s ultimate

value. Fundamental analysis involves the use of real data but also requires certain assumptions to be

made about future prospects. It is a type of analysis made famous by investors such as Warren

Buffet.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

• Strong Earnings Per Share growth, as well as factors that underpin a low level of risk in those

earnings, such as the company having a niche offering, participating in a market-leading position

and ideally, low leverage to macro and external factors that are beyond the company’s control.

• Sound management, in particular a period of stability in the board and management; the ability to

execute on strategy; as well as a track record on acquisitions.

• The strength of the balance sheet, in particular debt levels and debt covenants/expiry profiles and

the ability to service its debt levels. Ideally, we prefer companies where earnings growth is

generated by shareholder equity as opposed to borrowed funds.

• Trading multiples compared to peer companies.

• Factors specific to the company that the market are overlooking or overreacting to.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

In some respects it involves analysing the supply and demand in a market and how emotions are

driving a stock price higher or lower. By understanding this, you will be able to identify when stock

prices are running ahead of themselves or if they are being oversold.

You do this by analysing a graph of market prices.


WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Having an understanding in basic candlestick patterns is invaluable.

The above is weekly candlestick chart of CBA reaching a low of $24.03 during the GFC and signals that suggested it was a BUY. After less than 3 months, CBA had doubled in price. Source: AmiBroker

When analysing a chart, the first thing to take note of is the overall trend.

Is it up or down?


Many investors will jump straight into technical indicators without asking this basic question.

The next thing to do is make sure you are looking at a chart that has been converted to a bar or a

candlestick chart.

We use candlestick charts as they enable a lot of information to be portrayed at a glance such as

opening and closing prices, and trading ranges.

The next major variable is volume.

At the end of the day, most of what you can understand from a chart comes down to price and

volume. Every other indicator is essentially a derivative of these two factors.

We then go on to use indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average

Convergence Divergence (MACD). Techniques such as Elliot Wave are also very useful.

However, experience is the best predictor.

Some stocks and markets tend to behave in certain ways and getting used to the behaviour of these

can help yield results over time.

HOW TO GET OPTIMAL RESULTS

Many investors believe in a buy and hold strategy, and use Fundamental Analysis to pick stocks from

the Index. They incorrectly assume Technical Analysis is only relevant for short term traders.

Short term traders naturally think the opposite, often ignoring the fundamentals of a company and

only concentrating on quick movement to get in and out.

However, treating both forms of analysis as mutually exclusive results in these traders (in both

camps) getting mediocre results at best.

WHY YOU MUST USE BOTH FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

When analysing complex companies, it is essential to incorporate both fundamental and technical

data in order to obtain the most accurate results.

Our experience has proved that utilising both fundamental and technical analysis will provide an edge

over the average investor who gets average returns or below average returns and higher losses.

Unfortunately, most investment firms focus on fundamental analysis and place mere lip service on the

technicals. After all, getting them to do something different is like trying to turn around an oil tanker.


Successful investors treat each technique with as much respect as the other and take advantage of

all the tools available.

Which is exactly our philosophy at Fairmont Equities.

HOW WE HELP OUR CLIENTS GET BETTER RETURNS

Combining Both Fundamental & Technical Analysis Techniques

Ideally you want to buy a stock when both fundamental and technical aspects are positive.

Clearly you should avoid companies with both negative fundamental and technical traits.

However, it’s a grey area when a company looks good fundamentally but not technically, and vice

versa. Here are some thoughts to consider under each scenario:

POSITIVE FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS

This is the ideal situation where a company ticks all the right boxes across both techniques.

The decision to buy is easy.

However, things change.

At some point in time, either the fundamentals of the company become less appealing, or the

technical aspects start to ring alarm bells.

If the fundamentals change, depending on the reasons, it could be worth staying in a stock. If the




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change relates to serious questions over a company’s ability to maintain earnings, for example, then

an early exit could be required.

If the company has merely become expensive, then as long as the technical aspects are positive, it

can often be worthwhile to let the profitable investment continue on for longer.

If a company is still looking good fundamentally but the technical aspects start to break down, then we

need to make a decision whether this is a short term dip or whether it is the start of something more

sinister.

This is where we need to compare daily to weekly charts and look closely at what volume is telling us

on the down days.

Often the technicals will lead the fundamentals and it is not until the well informed investors have

dumped the stock does it become clear to the rest of the market that there is a problem with the

company.

Which is why the decision to sell then becomes difficult for the average investor.

NEGATIVE FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS

Avoid the investment!

Despite the obvious, many investors try to pick the lows in a badly beaten up company.

They quote lines from Warren Buffett such as “be greedy when others are fearful”, but this applies for

companies that are strong fundamentally and have been oversold.

Unfortunately a company in a bad sector that is entrenched in a downtrend is more likely to struggle

than one in the right area.

Avoid the worst in a good bunch instead of trying to pick the best in a bad bunch. It comes down to

recognising the probabilities and using them to your advantage.

POSITIVE FUNDAMENTALS WITH NEGATIVE TECHNICALS

A company may look good on paper but the chart is not looking the best.

Sometimes this means that the market has already reacted to changing market conditions and is

selling the stock.

Some companies are beholden to external factors and the effects on the company do not show up till

months later.


An example is the recent drop in commodity prices. This results in less expenditure by mining

companies, which results in less money being spent on mining contractors.

This means that a drop in commodity prices will eventually reduce the profitability of mining services

companies.

However, that will not show up in terms of a cash flow reduction until months later when contracts are

potentially not renewed.

In this instance, the charts will look negative despite the company financials still looking healthy. The

company in question is therefore more likely to be a “sell” than a “buy” and utilising technicals

provides an early clue as to the direction of the share price.

The other situation where a company can have positive fundamentals and negative technicals is

where a company has been oversold due to the market misjudging something about the company.

Often this tells us to “keep an eye” on the company as there is no point buying a stock that is being

pushed lower and lower, but it is worth watching to see how cheap we can get it.

As long as the fundamentals have not changed, then waiting for a positive sign on the chart will mean

that we have picked a much better entry price than if we jumped straight in earlier on.

Example.

Below is a chart of Lynas Corp in 2011 showing a reversal signal on the chart and then breaking the

uptrend – all very dangerous signs. It was a market darling with articles such as one in the Australian

Financial Review on 5 January 2011 titled “Lynas a step ahead on rare earths”. Quotes include “This

is not a speculative market where there is a bubble” from then CEO Nick Curtis. The uptrend was

broken near $2.50 per share. Fundamentals looked sound, but the technicals were screaming to run

away. The stock is now trading under 5c a share. This is what we call a “capital killer”.


Negative Fundamentals and Positive Technicals

Sometimes this can be a bit of a trap.

A company can have a lot going wrong for it but it seems to be looking good on a chart.

Here is where there is more of an opportunity as a short term trade and investors need to keep a

close eye on their purchase.

Sometimes the stock will continue going up in the face of negative fundamentals, only for a company

to make an announcement that changes everything assumed beforehand.

This is where the share price was leading the fundamentals and the smart money was getting in

before it became obvious to everyone else.

However, this scenario can be a trap in that if a stock makes a quick reversal and heads south, and

you still do not have any fundamental reasons to stay there, then it can often be best to exit quickly

and not wait around for a fundamental reason to turn up and justify your initial trade.

Example

A chart of Monadelphous during the first half of 2015 showing a steady uptrend. The average

investors sees an opportunity here, but fundamentally the mining services sector is in trouble.

Although the technicals look good, it is only short term. A look at the longer term trend below shows

that this uptrend (circled) is a mere blip during a 2.5 year period where the company lost 80% of its

value

Short term chart


Long term chart


LET’S BRING ALL THIS TOGETHER WITH A REAL EXAMPLE ILLUSTRATING OUR RIGOROUS 5 STEP ANALYSIS BASED APPROACH TO HELP YOU GROW YOUR PORTFOLIO.

This approach combining Fundamental and Technical Analysis has been responsible for producing

returns up to 13% when the ASX 200 Index produced a minus 3% return.

Our approach is outlined below in the left hand column. The right hand column provides a real case

study example illustrates the process.

Stock Selection Process Case Study Example

1. Idea Generation

The initial idea may come about from one or more

of the following:

Results released from a company.

A company may show earnings to be greater

than expected and provide guidance for the

year ahead.

An event-based ASX announcement.

This could include an acquisition or

divestment which the market considers very

positive to the company.

Share price weakness.

Stocks can often be caught up in general

market weakness and this can be an

opportunity to purchase a good company at

cheaper levels.

We will also look at companies best leveraged to

future macro/industry themes and trends.

For example, if we have a view that bond yields

are trending in a certain direction, then we can

target companies that benefit from that.

This case study follows Orora (ORA) starting in

2015 trading at $2.36.

Once it dipped to about $2.17 In December 2015,

we advised clients to buy it. When it hit $2.75 in

May 2016, we took a 26% profit excluding

dividends.

ORA had their AGM in mid-October 2015. They

reiterated their FY16 earning’s guidance and

commented that 1Q16 was tracking ahead of the

previous quarter.

By affirming full year guidance, we took this as a

positive sign.

With economic conditions in general looking to be

flat, we decided that this positive earnings

guidance was an opportunity worth investigating.


2. Assessment of a Stock’s Fundamentals

We then analyse the following about the

company:

The trend (ideally 4-5 years) in key

earnings indicators which include Earnings

Per Share (EPS) EPS growth, margins,

riskiness of earning, as well as underlying

sales growth

Management/Board stability and track

record

Balance sheet and cash flow trends.

Is the balance sheet strong and is cash flow

heading in the right direction?

Trading multiples compared to peer

companies and Consensus earnings

growth estimates.

A company trades at a lower multiple than its

peers could represent an opportunity.

Factors specific to the Company that the

market are overlooking or overreacting to.

For example, a company might have the

potential to make some acquisitions but the

market is discounting this.

ORA was spun out of Amcor in 2013 and has

seen improving profitability and revenue.

They are a market leader in Australasia, the

management are experienced and they have

helped the company achieve cost savings over

time as well as reduce company debt.

The company has been establishing track record

in making bolt-on acquisitions that add to

earnings.

The trading multiple is in line with historical

averages but was not cheap at current levels.

This implies an opportunity will be seen on any

pullback from current levels.

Return on Average Funds Deployed (showing the

increase from one year to the next)

21.6%22.6%

8.9%10.2%

9.3%10.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

FY14 FY15

North America Australia Group


Net cashflow ($m) going up over time

Net debt and gearing heading down over time.

3. Other Fundamental Considerations

Once we have analysed the company’s

fundamentals, we then do the following:

Go through all available broker reports

and check if we have missed anything.

Because we are not tied to a larger

corporation, we have no restrictions placed

on us.

With ORA, we could see that there was a

potential catalyst in the company making further

acquisitions in North America.

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Free Cash Flow Dividend Net

32%30% 29%

25%

2.2

1.9

1.6

1.3

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Gearing (RHS)

Net Debt to EBITDA (x) (RHS)


So we will look at what the other analysts in

the market are saying and we are happy to

take on any of their ideas and complement

them with our own.

Consider potential positive/negative share

price catalysts.

There may be risks/opportunities that could

impact on the share price.

A negative catalyst could include issues with

a recent merger undertaken by the company.

A positive catalyst could include a company

with a strong balance sheet having the

potential to make an acquisition.

4. Conduct Technical Analysis on a Stock

If the company is fundamentally sound, we then

have a look at the chart and consider factor such

as:

Is the stock in a primary up trend?

If the stock is already trending higher, then it

has a good chance of continuing that trend.

Is it sitting near any support or resistance

levels?

If a stock is near support then it may head

higher again. Being near resistance means

the stock may experience some short term

weakness.

Volume on the way up and down.

Volume adds weight to a share price

ORA was still trending higher in the long term.

It was getting close to some resistance and had

the potential to dip lower in the short term.

We could see some support between $2.10 and

$2.20 and decided it that we would have a better

risk/reward if we could catch it back in those

levels.

That would also equate to a cheaper P/E on the

fundamental side.

When it hit those levels in December, we had a

buying opportunity.


movement. That is, high volume on the way

up is more convincing than a move that

happens on low volume.

Whether movements are impulsive or

corrective in the direction of the trade.

A sharp move is a sign of strength, whereas a

very slow movement is less convincing.

Any warning signs on the candlestick

chart or momentum indicators.

Price action might show a slowing down in

the trend, and momentum indicators can

further confirm these warning signs.

Potential upside and downside levels to

determine a risk/reward. Nearby support

and resistance levels can give us clues as to

where a stock might be able to head to.

5. Consider suitability to invest

Once we have identified an opportunity, we then

look at each client’s profile to determine whether

that would suit them or not.

We consider factors including but not limited to:

Risk profile.

Higher risk individuals may be more willing to

trade stocks that perhaps don’t meet all the

criteria above compared to lower risk

individuals.

Reliance on income.

If the stock selected has a low yield, then this

will not suit an individual that is heavily reliant

Once we decided ORA was a buying opportunity,

we determined the following:

The fact that it was in an uptrend, near support,

and had defensive earnings meant that it was

suitable for individuals with a low risk tolerance

and above.

A 3.9% yield plus 30% franking meant that it

could be suitable for individuals looking for some

income as well as growth.

If a client was not overweight this sector and they

fulfilled the above criteria, we informed them of

our recommendation to buy ORA.


on dividends to meet living expenses.

The current sectors/stocks that are

already in the portfolio.

We will take into consideration what is

already in the portfolio. A client that is

overweight banks for example doesn’t need

to be adding another bank to the their

portfolio.

Their investment interests.

For example, some clients do not like to

invest in gambling stocks. Others are

particularly keen on being overweight a

sector such as agriculture, so we will take

that into account.

After all of the above is achieved, we are ready to

inform you of an investment opportunity.


MY QUESTION TO YOU

I’ve outlined how you can become a more successful trader by using a combination of fundamental

and technical analysis.

However, there are a huge number of stocks to choose from and it can be very difficult to keep track

and pick the eyes out of the market.

Put another way, the 80/20 or even 90/10 rule applies.

10% to 20% of all your activity will produce 80% to 90% of your profits.

The question is which 10% to 20%?

Which is where we can help.

At Fairmont Equities our goal is to help you make money. We do so by advising and assisting you in

professionally managing your share portfolio.

We strive to provide our clients with the best possible service while targeting goals of capital

protection and portfolio returns.

The types of investors we help are:

• Self Managed Super Funds (SMSFs)

• Retail and wholesale investors

• High Net Worth individuals

HERE’S WHAT A FEW OF OUR CLIENTS HAD TO SAY. PEOPLE JUST LIKE YOU…

“Michael manages my portfolio better than I can!”

“I have been investing by myself for the last 25 years or so. Lost and made money along the way.

The main reason I lost money was because of my innate reluctance to let go and sell which has cost

me dearly. This experience made me realise that I needed guidance and a trusted adviser to help and

push me along in making more rational decisions.

I’ve come to appreciate and value Michael’s disciplined, calm and methodical approach, and the

results speak for themselves.

Some of the results Michael has achieved for me:

• Bought some stocks at $12 and sold them, because Michael told me to sell, at $16 = profit of


33.33%

• Other stocks recommended by Michael yielded anywhere from 20 – 50% - I’m not sure I would

have invested in these stocks without Michael’s guidance.

Because of these truly satisfactory results, I’ve pretty much handed the management of my portfolio

to Michael. He confirms his trades with me before acting on them, unlike a managed fund. I trust his

judgment and the results achieved are proving it. However, as a client I have to be realistic and

understand that not every transaction will make money. Overall, thanks to Michael’s knowledge,

experience and careful consideration, I am well ahead.

I like the fact that Michael runs a small and very personalised organisation. He’s proactive, I can call

him whenever I need to, and he’s easy to talk to and knows his customers’ needs intimately. Working

with Michael is great, he sends out a weekly report, which contains interesting and valuable

background information.

I’m very happy to have chosen to work with Michael and am happy to recommend him to family and

friends.”

John Edwards - Sydney

“Engage A Specialist!”

“I do share trading myself and am pretty good at it. However I also believe that there’s merit in

engaging a specialist to see if their performance is better than mine.

About 8 – 9 months ago I decided to engage Michael Gable of Fairmont Equities to consult to me. His

philosophy to trading is longer term and he has extensive technical analysis skills. This makes sense

to me and is the reason why I’ve handed over some of my money for him to work with.

I like Michael as a person, his approach to the task and that he’s proactive.”

Teresa Wilson - Sydney

“I am a Farmer from Mudgee in New South Wales, and watch Michael Gable’s TV show religiously.

We started working together about 12 months or so ago. I really like Michael as a person, the way he

thinks, and the stocks he recommends. They all are good quality stocks. The weekly reports he sends

out to his clients are really good and useful. They offer a great deal of background information and

educate his clients as well. We speak regularly, Michael is on the ball and I appreciate this a great


deal. Michael Gable is perfect for me and I’m happy to recommend him to others.”

Michael Burnicle - Mudgee

“Michael Offers a Balanced Approach”

“I’ve only been working with Michael Gable of Fairmont Equities for 5 months or so. However I’m

happy to talk about Michael as an advisor and strategist in the share trading field.

Both fundamentals and technical aspects of trading are well covered by Michael. His approach is

balanced and the timings are good.

Michael is a stable and level headed person who’s proactive and constantly on the lookout for

opportunities to increase his clients’ wealth. He’s honest and has never pushed me into something I

don’t want to buy into. Nor does he make trades for the sake of them – just to make commissions.

Michael’s recommendations are sound and well researched, he’s chosen and recommended some

good shares for my portfolio. I get Michael’s weekly report, which I find very useful and very

educational too.

If you consider engaging an advisor in the share trading field, I suggest you should give Michael a

go.”

Tim Moore - Melbourne

YOUR NEXT STEP…

If you’re on track, happy with your position and know you’re getting the best returns, congratulations

and all the best for your future.

However, if you have that nagging feeling you’re not doing the best you can. Feeling overwhelmed by

the amount of analysis, letting emotion creep into your trading regime or just needing a second

opinion, I strongly suggest you allow us to help you get a better ROI.

In addition, if you qualify we offer a no obligation review of your equities portfolio where we’ll

go into depth with respect to your financial goals and how your portfolio structure will help you meet

them.

Should both of us feel there's merit in moving forward, we can discuss options and take appropriate

action.


Remember, markets are volatile. Please do take advantage of our knowledge and experience. Call

our office on 02 9375 0138 so we can help you generate a better return from your trading.

Michael Gable, Fairmont Equities.

“You get the best of both worlds”

“I have known about Michael Gable’s abilities for at least 2-3 years, when I saw him on the TV

business shows. I was with another advisor at Novus Capital who left for personal reasons and

transferred my small portfolio to his colleague, Michael, whom I already knew from the business

show. I was pleased it was Michael as I had seen him several times on shows and respected his

judgment on stocks.

I have found Michael to be courteous, honest, diligent and he has the ability to read charts, as well as

give you the fundamentals on a stock, so you get the best of both worlds.

He always takes my call and takes the time to answer my questions.

I recently referred a client to him on a short term basis and Michael achieved a higher return for him

than what he currently earned from bank interest.

I am pleased the way Michael and I work together and recently increased the funds I have under his

management.”

Ezy Elias - Sydney




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ARE YOU AN EXPERIENCED EQUITIES TRADER WHO’S LOOKING … · 2017. 10. 23. · How To Gain An Edge...

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Transcript of ARE YOU AN EXPERIENCED EQUITIES TRADER WHO’S LOOKING … · 2017. 10. 23. · How To Gain An Edge...