Are multiple structural interpretations better than one?
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Transcript of Are multiple structural interpretations better than one?
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The structural geology expertsMidland Valley
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Are multiple structural interpretations better than
one?
Clare Bond1, Euan Macrae2, and Zoe Shipton2
1 Midland Valley Exploration 2 University of Glasgow
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Multiple Interpretations...
...or a definitive answer?
The conundrum - defining the uncertainty space of an interpretation whilst providing a model on which decisions can be made.
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Software solutions...
Multiple InterpretationsScenario modelling – turbidite flows, geomechanical and fracture modelling and in our restoration tools.
The “definitive answer” – working with a modelModel morphing and updating - tools to easily update and modify models whilst fixing points of certainty.
...not all the answers?
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Changing a mindset
Human NatureThe ditherer and the decisive...
Are you someone who draws dashed lines on your map and dare not ink it in?
Or do you... Grab the pen and go for it, potentially regretting it later?
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Experience
Knowledge and Experienceshould not be underestimated, but might be better expressed as confidence?
Bond, Philo and Shipton (in review) International Journal of Science Education
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ExpertiseExperts and non-experts
23%27%
35% Bond, et al. (2008) GSAToday
445 315 184
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Techniques
Effective expertsuse lots of techniques.
100%
79%
67%
23%18%
35%
features
sticks
horizons
annotationsEvolutionary thought
Descriptive writing
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Call yourself an expert?
Effective expertsused specific techniques –notably thoughts about the geological evolution.
35%
94%
44%51%45%37%
10%
Evolutionary thought
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Everyone can be an expert?
27%
87%
37%40%
7%
38%30%
non-experts
Evolutionary thought
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Everyone can be effective
by using multiple techniques to query the data and,applying specific validation techniques.
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More than one answer?
Perhaps other solutions honour the data.
If we had given the participants a choice of interpretations that included the ‘correct’ answer, would the percentage of correct concept choices have been significantly higher?
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Vör Survey: Multiple Interpretations
Vör investigated how geologists choose the best interpretation for a seismic dataset when presented with a choice of plausible interpretations.
61 responses were collected.
A seismic image from the Inner Moray Firth in the North Sea:
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The following three slides contain some results:
What model gives the best prediction of the geology?
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Model 5 was actually ranked as the most plausible, or the 2nd most plausible 70% of the time!
Rank the models in order of plausibility.The percentage of respondents who rated each model as being the most plausible:
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The percentage of respondents who rated each model as being the least plausible:
Rank the models in order of plausibility.
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What was the main result of the Vör survey?
Future work:
Check the geometrical validity of Models 1-5.
Why did most people choose Model 5?
How can we ensure that people pick the “RIGHT” model?
Vör showed that, given a choice of plausible models, the majority of interpreters choose the same model.
i.e. Interpreters converged to the same model.
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The Freyja Project: quantifying how people make interpretations
Please take part in the survey!Pens and information sheets outside.