The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

Are Egypt's Islamic Parties Planning to Nullify

the Peace Treaty with Israel?

Jonathan D. Halevi

The prevailing optimism in media reports

concerning the Egyptian Muslim

Brotherhood and the Salafist party's

readiness to adhere to the peace treaty with

Israel is based on general statements made

by senior officials in both parties. These

statements maintain that Egypt must honor

the international treaties that it signed.

Yet a more rigorous examination of the two

parties' stances identifies a markedly

different tendency. Both seek a way to cast

off the Camp David agreement in a manner

that will incur minimal diplomatic and

economic damage to Egypt, and restore

Egypt to its leading role in the circle of

states confronting Israel.

The Muslim Brotherhood has set a number

of criteria for examining international

agreements, including the Camp David

agreement: the considerations of Islamic

canon law (Sharia), the position of the

Egyptian people, and the degree of Israel's

compliance with the agreement from Egypt's

perspective.

The strategic objective of the Egyptian

Islamic movements is to transform Egypt

into a prime regional force that will lead the

diplomatic and military battle against Israel.

This means re-examining the Camp David

agreement and submitting it to the decision

of the new parliament that will be controlled

by the Islamic parties or to a referendum -

thereby alleviating the responsibility of any

future Egyptian government for cancelling

the peace treaty.

These developments can be averted if the

U.S. and its allies take a firm position

against any initiative to undermine the

Treaty of Peace between Israel and Egypt,

and all echelons of the Egyptian

establishment are made to understand the

implications of any such action.

The revolution in Egypt, followed by elections

to the parliament, has elevated the Islamic

parties to a position of power as they enjoy an

absolute parliamentary majority after the two

initial stages of the parliamentary elections. The

Muslim Brotherhood movement's Freedom and

Justice party won 49 percent of the total seats

that it contested (73 out of 150) in the first stage

of the elections and the Salafist al-Nur party

won about 20 percent of the seats (30 seats). In

the second stage of the elections the Muslim

Brotherhood won about 40 percent of the votes

and al-Nur about 35 percent. The final stage of

the elections will take place in January 2012.

However, we can already form the distinct

impression that the Egyptian parliament will be

controlled by the absolute majority retained by

these two extreme Islamic parties.

In recent journalistic reports we repeatedly hear

the claim that the Freedom and Justice party and

the al-Nur party will continue to honor the

Camp David peace agreement with Israel after

the new regime has been consolidated under

their leadership. These reports are essentially

based on general statements made by senior

officials in both parties to the effect that Egypt

must honor the international agreements that it

signed. However, a rigorous examination of the

two parties' stances indicates a totally different

tendency: namely, the two parties seek to cast

off the Camp David accords in a manner that

will cause Egypt the minimal possible

diplomatic and economic damage.

The issue of Egyptian adherence to the Camp

David agreement was brought up during

discussions that Senator John Kerry conducted

together with the American Ambassador to

Cairo, Anne Patterson, with leaders of the

Freedom and Justice party on December 10,

2011. Dr. Mohammed Morsi, the party

chairman, referred to the issue in general terms.

A report on the meeting by the official website

of the Muslim Brotherhood stated:

Morsi noted that Egypt is a large country with a

deep-rooted history that fulfills an important

role in the Arab, Islamic and international

arenas and therefore it honors the agreements

and contracts which it has signed. He demanded

that the American administration listen directly

to the people rather than listen to what is said

about them, while emphasizing that the United

States could play a role in facilitating economic

stability and prosperity for all peoples should it

choose to do so.1

New Egyptian Conditions

The Muslim Brotherhood set a number of

criteria for examining international agreements,

including the Camp David agreement. First,

there is Islamic canon law (Sharia); second, one

must take into account the Egyptian people's

position which Morsi mentioned in his talk with

Senator Kerry; and third, one must weigh the

degree of compliance by the other party to any

agreement that was signed with Egypt.

The platform of the Freedom and Justice party

determines that it will honor international

human rights agreements, provided that they do

not contradict the Islamic Sharia. Regarding the

peace agreement with Israel, the platform states

that agreements between countries must be

acceptable to the people and conform to the

principles of justice and the interests of the

parties. Respect for these agreements is

conditional upon an obligation by the parties to

fulfill them in full, as is the norm in

international relations. "Therefore, the party

considers it obligatory to reappraise many of the

agreements that were signed in various fields by

the old regime."2

Calls to Re-examine the Treaty with Israel

Senior leaders of the Freedom and Justice party

have on numerous occasions in recent months

favored amending or abrogating the Camp

David accords and severing diplomatic and

economic relations with Israel. On August 25,

2011, party chairman Dr. Mohammed Morsi

demanded a re-examination of the Camp David

agreement, and contended that Israel's "attack"

on an Egyptian army border position (that was

in response to terrorist fire at the IDF from this

position) exemplified Israel's systematic

violation of the agreement.3

Dr. Ahmed Abu Baraka, the Freedom and

Justice party's legal advisor and a senior leader

of the party, said on August 28 that it was

necessary to re-examine all the clauses of the

Camp David agreement to see whether its

abrogation was mandated. He emphasized the

importance of deploying Egyptian army forces

in the Sinai, equipped with heavy and advanced

weaponry, in order to deter Israel.4

Dr. Mohammed Gamal Hismat, a senior leader

of the Freedom and Justice party and a former

parliament member, proposed on August 24 to

establish a legal committee that would examine

the Camp David agreement in light of Israel's

"continued violation" of the agreement.5

Dr. Essam El-Arian, the deputy leader of the

Freedom and Justice party, on August 23

minimized the importance of American threats

to terminate assistance to Egypt if it were to

disown the Camp David agreement, and

contended that Israel was violating the

agreement "in a blatant fashion."6

Dr. Hamdy Ismail, the party secretary in the

Ismailiya district, explained on October 31 that

the issue of the Camp David agreement directly

affected the Egyptian citizenry, and therefore

raised a proposal within the party to submit the

decision on the issue to a referendum.7

Dr. Ahmed Rami, a senior Freedom and Justice

party leader in the Qalyubiya district, called on

August 27 for a re-examination of the Camp

David agreement, noting that the revolution in

Egypt marked the outset of a journey to

liberate Jerusalem in view of the fact that the

"Zionist entity is near collapse."8

These positions received additional validation

from the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Dr.

Mohammed Badie, who in his weekly letters to

movement activists elaborates his doctrine and

positions with regard to the United States and

Israel following the revolutions in Egypt and the

Arab world. Badie terms the Camp David

accord "a surrender" agreement and he presents

a list of demands on this issue. In his letter of

May 5, 2011, Badie wrote:

We vociferously call for the termination of

normalization, that provided our enemy [Israel]

with stability, putting an end to securing the

Zionist borders and the killing of infiltrators into

the enemy's [territory], the abrogation of the

issues of economic interests such as the QIZ,9 a

[halt] to gas exports that wrought damage to our

national security, urgent action to complete the

opening of the Rafah crossing on a permanent

basis and a re-examination of the Camp David

agreement so it can be presented to the National

Assembly elected in free elections, thus

allowing it to have its say after it was denied

this for years.10

Badie defines Israel and the United States as

Egypt's principal adversaries. In his weekly

letter of October 6, 2011, he reaches the clear

conclusion that "our main enemy is the Zionist-

American plan, which aspires to take over the

entire region in order to establish Greater Israel

and the New Middle East."11

Badie does not mention any option for

cooperation with Israel or the United States, but,

on the contrary, in his evaluation these two

countries, that represent the most dangerous

threat to Egypt, are currently in a state of

historic decline:

The global forces, the Zionists and Americans,

are absorbing a succession of debacles and

defeats, commencing with Israel's isolation and

loss of its regional supporters, and the American

failures in the military realm (in Iraq and

Afghanistan), and in the economic arena that

threaten the collapse of the capitalist regime as a

result of failed policy and the huge expenses and

wars prosecuted under the pretext of liquidating

what they call terror. They've forfeited their

credibility among peoples and now they've lost

their financial sources, and we do not rule out

the possibility that their fate will approximate

the Soviet Union's fate....At the same time the

blessed revolutions of the Arab Spring presage a

total change in the Arab national map.12

The irrelevance of the Camp David agreement

finds expression in the Muslim Brotherhood

movement's overt aspiration to bring about the

"liberation" of the entire territory of "Palestine,"

a concept that dovetails with its Islamic

ideological platform, and which finds

expression in the current optimistic assessment

by the Muslim Brotherhood leader on the

prospects for realizing this vision in practice. In

his weekly letter of June 9, 2011, Badie writes:

Victory is near with the help of Allah, it is

definite and there can be no doubt about it. The

restoration of Palestine, al Quds [Jerusalem],

the Golan, and all the lands that Israel

conquered is no longer feverish imagination, but

a hope that will soon be realized after the [Arab]

nations have revolted....The era of "Israeli"

superiority has ended and "Israel" has begun to

doubt its continuity and survival.13

The official position of the Salafist al-Nur party

resembles that of the Muslim Brotherhood. Dr.

Emad Abdel Ghafour, the party leader, says:

It is obligatory to honor the agreements to which

Egypt is affiliated, and we demand that they be

met. There are many passages in the peace

agreement that were not implemented [by

Israel], such as a solution to the Palestinian

problem, the right of self-determination [for the

Palestinian people], and the autonomy of a

Palestinian state on Palestinian soil. There are

many issues that must be implemented so that

the Palestinian people will sense that it has

benefited from the peace process....The peace

agreement of Camp David requires a re-

examination.14

Dr. Yousry Hamad, the spokesperson for the al-

Nur party, explained that the party's position on

the Camp David agreement would be adopted

on the basis of Sharia,15 and vigorously denied

journalistic reports that the party was ostensibly

prepared to maintain contacts with the Israeli

ambassador in Cairo.16

Unfounded Optimism

The optimism regarding a radical change in the

positions of these extreme Egyptian Islamic

movements regarding Israel grasps at the straws

of general statements that do not attest to an

ideological reversal, but convey the tactics for

obtaining the strategic objective: casting off the

Camp David agreement and transforming Egypt

into a prime regional force that will lead the

diplomatic and military battle against Israel.

The Muslim Brotherhood, as well as the al-Nur

party, is seeking a convenient exit point from

the Camp David agreement, due to an awareness

of the implications of violating a binding

diplomatic treaty under international law and the

immediate damage that the Egyptian economy is

likely to absorb as a direct result of an initiated

abrogation of the Camp David accords.

Egypt receives $1.3 billion annually in U.S.

military assistance, while in 2010 American

economic assistance totaled $250 million. The

Egyptian army's main strength is predicated on

American weapons systems including F-16 and

F 14 aircraft, Apache helicopters, M1A1 and

M60A3 tanks, surface-to-air missiles, spy

planes, and more. In the framework of bilateral

military cooperation, the armies of the two

countries customarily conduct joint training and

maneuvers.

How to Nullify the Peace Treaty

Yet the die has been cast and the strategic

choice has already been made. The only

question on the agenda is how to implement this

decision at a minimal diplomatic and economic

cost. We can infer from comments by senior

Muslim Brotherhood members that they are

interested in playing the "democratic game" to

the hilt on this issue as well. This means re-

examining the Camp David agreement and

submitting it to the decision of the new

parliament that will be controlled by the Islamic

parties or to a referendum - thereby alleviating

the responsibility of any future Egyptian

government for cancelling the peace treaty. The

immediate pretext will be Israel's

noncompliance with clauses in the agreement, in

order to attribute to Israel the blame for the

treaty's abrogation.

It would appear that the Muslim Brotherhood's

appraisal is that following their seizure of power

and additional achievements of the Arab Spring,

the U.S. will be compelled to accept the new

reality, just as it has made peace with the

situation up to now. American leaders have even

reiterated their praise for the democratic

process, although this process has elevated the

radical Islamic forces to new positions of power.

These forces aspire to drain democracy of

content and gradually (the Muslim Brotherhood

strategy) or immediately (the al-Nur party

approach) implement Islamic religious law.

From Israel's standpoint, the revolution in Egypt

and its translation at the ballot box into the

Islamic Revolution carries the serious potential

for transforming Egypt in the foreseeable future

into an enemy and restoring it to the circle of

confrontation states. Israel is doing its utmost to

preserve the Camp David agreement even for

appearances sake. However, developments in

Egypt will inevitably lead to the creation of a

serious security challenge on Israel's southern

border. The new Egypt will try to exercise its

full sovereignty in Sinai and deploy regular

forces there, employing various pretexts,

beginning with Israeli "violations" of the Camp

David agreement, proceeding with the need to

defend itself against an Israeli attack, and

concluding with Egypt's obligation to protect its

Palestinian brothers in Gaza.

Furthermore, the Muslim Brotherhood

movement in Egypt, the parent movement

of Hamas, provides ongoing assistance to

Hamas and furnishes it with strategic backing

that is growing more potent due to the

Brotherhood's increased strength in the recent

elections. A high proportion of Izzedine al

Qassam Brigade activists who were killed in

recent years in Gaza were simultaneously

Muslim Brotherhood activists and Hamas

members. The plausible assumption is that one

of the Muslim Brotherhood's first objectives

after it assumes the reins of power will be to

guarantee an open border crossing between

Gaza and Egypt, and to provide comprehensive

economic and military assistance to Hamas that

will pose new security risks for Israel.

Furthermore, the strategic alliance between the

Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas may constrain

Israel's freedom of military action in Gaza (as

well as in the West Bank) because this could

provoke an Egyptian military response,

including the transfer of aid, weapons, and

intelligence to Hamas, the deployment of

Egyptian forces in Sinai and/or in Gaza,

stationing Egyptian antiaircraft systems on the

border of Gaza, and threats of direct military

action.

These developments can be averted if the U.S.

and its allies take a firm position against any

initiative to undermine the Treaty of Peace

between Israel and Egypt, and all echelons of

the Egyptian establishment are made to

understand the implications of any such action.

* * *

Notes

1.

http://www.ikhwanonline.com/new/Article.aspx

?ArtID=96953&SecID=0

2. http://www.hurryh.com/Party_Program.aspx

3.

http://www.hurryh.com/Provinces/Our_news_D

etails.aspx?News_ID=1933&ID=23

4.

http://www.hurryh.com/Provinces/Our_news_D

etails.aspx?News_ID=2000

5.

http://www.hurryh.com/Party_Article_Details.a

spx?News_ID=1872

6.

http://www.hurryh.com/Our_news_Details.aspx

?News_ID=1850

7.

http://www.hurryh.com/ar_print.aspx?print_ID=

4579

8.

http://www.hurryh.com/Our_news_Details.aspx

?News_ID=1954

9. The QIZ Agreement (QIZ-Qualified

Industrial Zones) was signed in 2005 between

the governments of the United States, Israel and

Egypt. The agreement defined industrial zones

whose factories would receive a customs

exemption on their exports to the United States

if a certain percentage of the raw materials

originated in Israel.

10.

http://www.ikhwanonline.com/new/Article.aspx

?ArtID=83759&SecID=0

11.

http://www.ikhwanonline.com/new/Article.aspx

?SecID=213&ArtID=92523

12.

http://www.ikhwanonline.com/new/Article.aspx

?SecID=213&ArtID=92523

13.

http://www.ikhwanonline.com/new/Article.aspx

?ArtID=85754&SecID=0

14.

http://www.tayyar.org/Tayyar/News/PoliticalNe

ws/ar-LB/salafi-egypte-pb-5363323219.htm

15.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tCfUs6upx

Q&feature=youtu.be

16.

http://www.facebook.com/AlnourParty/posts/21

1082628974957

* * *

Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi is a senior

researcher of the Middle East and radical Islam

at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He is

a co-founder of the Orient Research Group Ltd.

and is a former advisor to the Policy Planning

Division of the Israel Ministry of Foreign

Affairs.