ARCTIC HYDROCARBON RESOURCES (Source: USGS)
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Transcript of ARCTIC HYDROCARBON RESOURCES (Source: USGS)
Arctic Hydrocarbon Reserves in a Global Perspective
Pauli Jumppanen
In the Spirit of the Rovaniemi ProcessDecember 2-4, 2013
Rovaniemi, Finland
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ARCTIC HYDROCARBON RESOURCES(Source: USGS)
Crude oil 90 Bbl1 12.3 B toe3 13 %4 8.0 %5
Condensate 44 Bbl1 3.8 B toe
Natural gas 48 Tcm2 43.2 B toe 30 % 25.6 %
Total 59.3 B toe 22 % 14.7 %
1 Bilion barrels of oil/condensate2 Trillion cubic metres of gas3 Billion tons of oil equivalalent4 % of oil yet to be found5 % of existing conventional oil/gas reserves
Estimate for exploitable hydrocarbon reserves
Does world needs Arctic hydrocarbon reserves?
Are there alternatives to Arctic hydrocarbon development?
Bbl
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
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Used oil
Conventional oil
Non-coventional oil
Natural gas
Non-conventional gas
Coal
Gas hydrates
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500
Reserves
Resources
Geological
← 1000 - 16,000 Btoe
Fuel type Reserves Resources Total
Oil 53 +35 88
Natural gas 56 + 80 136
Coal 110 +60 170
Sufficiency of recoverable fossil fuels (years)
Billion tons of oil equivalent
WORLD POTENTIAL OF FOSSIL FUELS(Various sources)
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
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Fossil fuels Hydrocarbons
Oil Natural gas & coalgas
Coal Peat
Nuclear energy
Hydropower
Renewables Biomass & biofuels Wind power Solar energy Wave and tidal energy Geothermal energy
PRIMARY FUELS
33.4 %
29.8 %
23.8 %
4.9 %6.5 % 1.6 %
OilCoalGasNuclearHydroRenewable
World fuels’ production 2012 (Source: BP June 2013)
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
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SYNTHETIC FUELS
Raw materials Coal Natural gas & coalgas Shale gas & shale oil Oil sands & bitumes Biomass Other
Conversion processes Direct conversion
Pyrolysis Hydrogenation Plasma conversion
Indirect conversion Fisher-Tropsch (FT) Methanol to gasolin (MtG) Other
Synthetic gases Syngas Hydrogen
Synthetic liquid fuels Methanol Dimethyl ether (DME) Ethanol Gasolin Kerosene Diesel & biodiesel Fuel oils Other
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
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Vene
zuel
a
S-Ar
abia
Cana
da
Iran
Iraq
Kuw
ait
UAE
Russ
ia
Lib
ya
Nig
eria
USA
Kaza
khst
an
Qat
ar
Chin
a/Br
as.
Oth
er
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
WORLD PROVEN OIL RESERVES (Source: BP June 2013)
17,8 %
15.9
10,4 9,5 9.0
6,1 5,9 5,2
2,9 2,2 2.1 1,8 1,5 1.0
7.9
Billi
on (1
09 ) ba
rrel
s (B
bl)
Heavy oils (Orinoco Belt)
Oil sands
*Share of world reserves
Total oil 1669 BblR/P ratio 52,9 yrEU share 0.4 %
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
Oil company reserves (Ernst & Young 2012) ExxonMobil 12.3 Bbl (0.73 %*) R/P = 15 yr
BP 10.6 Bbl (0.64 %*) R/P = 14 yr Shell 6.1 Bbl (0,37 %*) R/P = 10 yr
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Iran
Russ
ia
Qat
ar
Turk
men
.
USA
S-Ar
abia
UAE
Vene
zuel
a
Nig
eria
Alge
ria
Aust
ralia
Chin
a
Indo
nesi
a
Nor
way
Oth
er
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Tr
illio
n (1
012) m
3 (T
cm)
18.0 %17,6
13.4
9.3
13,0
2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.1
4.54.4
3.3 3.0 2.8
WORLD CONVENTIONAL NATURAL GAS RESERVES (Source: BP June 2013)
• R/P ratio 55.7 years• OECD share 10.0 % • EU share 0.9 %
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
World total reserves: 187.3 trillion m3
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Chin
a
Arge
ntina
Alge
ria
USA
Cana
da
Mex
ico
Aust
alia
S. A
fric
a
Russ
ia
Liby
a
Braz
il
Pola
nd
Oth
er
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
WORLD SHALE GAS RESOURCES(Sources: EIA June 2013, ARI*)
Tr
illio
n (1
012) m
3 (Tcm
)
15.3 %
Technically recoverable shale gas resources: 206.8 trillion m3
11.0
9.79.2
7.8 7.4
6.05.3
3.9 3.5 3.32.9
14,732.9 TcmTechnology(Horizontal drilling & hydraulic fracturing)
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
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NATURAL GAS PRICES 1995 - 2012 (Sources: BAFA, ICIS, Natural Gas Week)
USD / million Btu(1 million Btu = 293 kWh ≈ 28 m3 natural gas)
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
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ALTERNATIVE OIL RESERVES RESOURCES(Various sources)
Proven
Arctic oil & ngl.
Other conventional
Shale oil
Extra heavy
Oil sand % bitumen
0200
400600
8001000
12001400
16001800
Billion (109) barrels
Technically and economically recoverable oil
- 53 v.
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
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ALTERNATIVE GAS RESERVES AND RESOURCES(Various sources)
Proven
Arctic gas
Other conventional
Shale gas
coal gas & gas sand
Gas hydrate
0 50 100 150 200 250 Trillion (1012) m3
- 56 v.
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
Technically and economically recoverable gas
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CONCLUSIONS
Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland
Out of Arctic hydrocarbon development, oil reserves are of major interest Due to significant, good quality conventional oil reserves Due to interest of some Arctic countries and big oil companies To decrease dependence on Middle East and Latin Americ’s oil production
Out of Arctic natural gas reserves, only rich condensate fields are of a short-term interest
Main alternative sources to Arctic hydrocarbons are: Non-conventional resources like shale oil & gas, heavy oils, oil & gas sands etc. Synthetic fuels production from shale gas, coal gas, biomass etc. Renewable sources like biofuels, wind, solar, geothermal etc.
Arctic reserves’ development will proceed slowly due to technology challenges, environment concerns and oil/gas price fluctuations
13Photo: Markku Lepola