Arctic Change Detection Atmospheric Sciences-APL-PMEL
description
Transcript of Arctic Change Detection Atmospheric Sciences-APL-PMEL
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Arctic Change Detection
Atmospheric Sciences-APL-PMEL
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20th Century Zonal Mean Surface Air Temperature Anomalies (Nov. – Mar.)
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Winter (Nov. – Mar. ) Land Surface Air Temperature averaged 60-90N
18 IPCC Models
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Example of Successful Model Ensembles
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-4 -2 0 2 4 deg C
Persistent Multivariate Arctic ChangesPersistent Multivariate Arctic Changes
Permafrost degradation
Sea Ice Sept 2003
AVHRR Surface Temperature
Tundra shown in
Pink
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Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index
Thompson and Wallace, 1998 Geo. Res. Let.
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Sea Ice work with Applied Physics Laboratory
OW 2 4 6 8 10+
Ice Age Sept 2000
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Arctic Change in the last Decade March-May
Temps Heights
Thickness
500 hPaTemps
150 E
150 W
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http://www.http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect
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SUMMARY
JISAO collaboration on Arctic climate
Present Arctic conditions are unique in the instrumental record (1880 -2004). Over last five years many indicators show strong persistence.
Arctic change is a combination of 1) intrinsic atmospheric variability, 2) internal feedbacks and 3) external forcing in unknown amounts.
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AOPNA
Projections of Spring Temperature on the AO and PNA
Recent Anomalies