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MINISIRN Of ItiE SOUCIle,
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National Parole Board Summer Students:
ROBERT BASQUE CATHY FENNELL REGINALD BODY
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PREDICTION FACTORS
•
•
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of this document does not belong to the CroWn. Proper authorization must be obtained from the author for any inteno'ed use
Ces droils dauteur
du present document n'apparliennent
pas à l'État Toute utilisation du contenu
du present
document dolt être
approuvée préalablement
par rauteur:
PREDICTION FACTORS
ABSTRACT
Cathie Fennell Robert Basque Reginald Body
Three summer students working with the National
Parole Service, Moncton, studied the outcome of cases
of all men discharged from Dorchester Penitentiary
and the Westmorland Institution, 1969-1976 inclusive.
All cases were classified as "success" (no further
imprisonment for five years) or "failure" . Following
the Glueck system, sixteen tables of five factors
each were constructed to predict recidivism. Factors
found to discriminate most strongly between success
and failure, in order, are: number of convictions,
age at first penitentiary sentence, type of most
serious conviction, mandatory supervision failures,
sexual offence history, month of birth (:), type
of present conviction, age at release, type of release.
High predictive success and discrimination are demon-
strated for four of the sixteen five-factor tables.
761-1-
•
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to express our thanks and apprec- ,
iation to a number of people. Your help has been inval-
uable and we are indebted to you.
Staff of the National Parole Service, Moncton Staff of the Regional Parole Board, Moncton Maud Hody, Parole Service Officer, National
Parole Service, Moncton Staff of Dorchester Penitentiary and Westmorland
Institution Inmates of Dorchester Penitentiary and Westmorland
Institution RCMP of Halifax, Fredericton and Ottawa Computer Center, Universitde de Moncton
•
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction II Summary of Glueck III Methodology IV Inmate Opinions V Justification of Categories VI Coding Scheme I VII Coding Scheme II VIII Introduction to Tables IX Discussion of Releases (1969 - 1977) X Scoring Tables (1969 - 1977) XI Evaluation Tables (1969 - 1977) XII Discussion of Releases (1969 - 1975) XIII Scoring Tables (1969 - 1975) XIV Evaluation Tables (1969 - 1975) XV Program XVI Cross Tabulation
4,
gl, Appendix
•
I INTRODUCTION
A group of nine students was hired by the Office
of the Solicitor General to carry out several research pro-
jects over a period of four months. Three of these
students were assigned to the study "Prediction Factors",
the efforts of which this paper presents.
"Prediction Factors" deals with offenders in the
Atlantic area. (This does not necessarily mean that the
offenders were born in Eastern Canada, only that they have
previously been or are presently incarcerated in Dorchester
Penitentiary.) It is a study which is to lead to the pre-
diction of success or failure on release from prison, based
on the records of all discharges from Dorchester Penitentiary,
1969 - 1976.
Our purposes then, were:
1. To discover the outcome of all cases of persons dis-
charged from Dorchester Penitentiary.
2. To discover the reasons for success or failure on parole.
3. To discover how successful the correctional services
are.
4. To establish a basis for future predictive studies.
5. To set up prediction tables.
These purposes were looked at in terms of:
A. Possible dynamic factors in recidivism, that is,
factors which can be changed or modified as circum-
stances change.
• - 2 -
B. Cases unique to the Maritimes.
It should be emphasized that the prediction "tables"
we have formulated do not attempt to explain or understand
criminal behavior. Although in some ways they may touch on
the explahations for such behavior, it should be understood
that prediction tables are merely practical devices to
facilitate decision and action. They in no way assume know-
ledge of why non-conforming behavior occurs.
•
•
• 3
•
•
II SUMMARY OF GLUECK
Although our project was a brain-child of one of
the parole service officers in Moncton's National Parole
Service, our source of reference and strength was found in a
study carried out by Sheldon and Eleanor Glueck. Their book,
Predicting Crime and Deliauency, attempts to present an
entire system of predictive devices covering the span of years
from an individual's first court appearance until approximately
age 40. It also includes predictive devices for the early
identification of potential deliquents. Between this study
and ours an obvious discrepancy exists. The GlueCks are
primarily interested in juveniles and their careers as
criminals. Our study, "Prediction Factors", focuses on the
adult offençler, completely ignoring juvenile offenses. (We
also ignored American offenses.) However, the tools used by
both studies are similar and therefore interchangeable. The
effectiveness of predictjon tables does not appear to be a
function of the age of the subjects involved.
The Glueck prediction tables evolved from a former study,
500 Criminal Careers, which showed that tables must be con-
structed so that behavior during each form of peno-correc-
tional treatment could be predicted. The tables were thus
extended not only by covering longer follow-up periods, but
by breaking down the responses and analysing the reaction of
offenders to treatments at various age levels.
•
•
•
- 4 -
Briefly, the construction of prediction tables will be
looked at. The Gluecks have summarized the steps for us,
(P. 31-2).
1. From among highly differentiating factors, five are
selected, taking into consideration whether or not
these'factors are mutually exclusive. If possible, those
selected are relatively independent of one another.
The practical matter of the ease or difficulty of gathering
the data by those who would be charged with the task is
also considered in making the selection. This problem
will be expanded on.
2. The percentages of subclass incidence of violation or mal-
adaption, or recidivism, or delinquency, as the case may be,
are next set down for each of the five selected factors.
3. The next step is to determine the lowest and highest
possible scores by adding ail the smallest percentages
together and also the highest percentages. This procedure
•gives maximum percentile and minimum percentile.
4. Next, score classes are established in equidistant inter-
vals between the minimum and maximum score limits.
5. Then,each case in the group is scored on the five factors
and placed in the appropriate score class and appropriate
behavior category, the number falling into each score class
being converted into a percentage.
6. The resulting distribution of percentages is the basis for
the predictive instrument.
•
7. Finally, the distribution of the percentages is examined
to determine what combinations of the score classes provide
the sharpest predictive instrumentality.
No discussion of prediction and prediction tables
would be valid without some mention of the "uses" of such
tables. The Gluecks have included such a section in their
study:
1. Predictive devices and sentencing..Tables resulting from
extensive research in the area, should ideally enable
judges to individualize in terms of objectified, system-
atized and relevant experience. By the means of the
predictive instruments the judges would have pertinent
organized data in the light of which to discriminate
among several alternatives, and to choose the one most
suited to the particular offender.
2. Predictive devices and parole...Parole, like sentencing,
requires the exercise of sound choice. The prediction
table enables such a choice to be made with a degree of
confidence. It allows for discretion in individualizing
releases on parole and in the revocation of parole. The
tables should be valuable in making decisions as to
whether a prisoner should be released on supervision and
for what length of time that individual should be under
such supervision.
3. Other uses...Prediction devices could also be quite useful
in establishing the true utility of existing punitive or
reformative institutions and techniques.
•
•
•
•
-6 -
III METHODOLOGY
Extensive research, through readings, interviews and
library visits, was carried out so that the best possible
method of "prediction" could be discovered. Other than Glueck,
our approach includes, to some extent, the work of such
experts in the field as Caile and Ohlin. In addition to these
studies we found much valuable information in what the inmates
at Dorchester had to say.
On the basis of this research, we focused on what
we felt to be the most valuable correlations of recidivism.
Unfortunately many excellent factors had to be eliminated
because it was impossible to find them on the prisoner records.
For our pilot sample, ten inmates chosen at random
from Westmorland Institution, were interviewed, and were
asked to comment on a questionnaire (consisting of sixty-
two questions) with respect to style, format and readability.
This aspect of our work was not only helpful in terms of feed-
back, but it also enabled us to come into contact with our
"subjects". Using the constructive criticism offered by the
inmates we decided not to ask any questions if the answers
could be found in the inmate files.
As a result we made up two questionnaires; the first
dealing primarily with questions which could be only answered
by the inmates, such as:
How would you describe your childhood?
• 7
•
The second dealt with cold hard facts accessible to us through
inmate files; this was not seen by the inmates:
Date of first adult committal to penitentiary.
Permission was obtained from Gary Mills, Supervisor
of Classification, Dorchester Penitentiary, to distribute the
new questionnaire (consisting of twenty-three questions) to
the inmates of Dorchester and, on the basis of this permission,
the Visiting and Correspondence Department kindly passed out
approximately three hundred and fifty.
As a pilot for our second questionnaire, the year
1972 was chosen to determine the accessibility of such things
as: . FPS sheets, status of the file, personal information and
or course, the file itself. This year was chosen for a
variety of reasons. This proved to be the first year in which
a large sample of cases considered as Mandatory Supervision
were available. This choice obviously tests the effects
of mandatory supervision. As well, success in our study -
as in most others - is defined by the presence of law
abiding behavior for a period of five years or more, and no
incarcerations past the date of release. As this study
was carried out in 1977, 1972 proved to be the best year to
work with. Our final reason for this choice centers on the
fact that 1972 was the last year before the five year
archiving date.
•
• 8
Finally, a coding scheme was devised that would best
express and compress the information gathered from the files,
Room has been made in this code to include a wide variety
and range of responses. (II
(1) Criteria for selection:
1. Smallest number of separate sources to be checked on. 2. All releases and dates were required to be able to
determine "success" or"failure." 3. Dates of birth were required for the ages of the inmates
at the various convictions and releases. 4. FPS records for dates and types of offences. 5. No use of juvenile records.
With all these factors taken into account, we used
release sheets which specified inmate name, FPS number, type
of release, and date of release. We obtained, from the
inmate card file, date of birth and other personal information.
Next FPA records were sent for. This procedure used only
three references, yet it satisfied all the criteria.
Due to the amount of time and work involved we . did
not record more personal information than could be found in
the above three references.
•
•
•
- 9 -
IV INMATE OPINIONS
The response rate to our questionnaire, distributed to both
Westmorland Institution and Dorchester Penitentiary was extremely
low - approximately 17%. HoweVer, we feel that those inmates who
took the time to answer our questions did so quite well. Several
suggestions for improvement inside the prison system were supplied.
Most centered on the training offered in prison.
"Training in all of the trades should be part of the
prison's trade programs."
"There should be more trades in here. There's only a few
and sometimes you have to wait months to get into one."
"The training in prisons, there is now, should be up-
graded on a larger scale, with additional trades. I feel
that inmates have to choose from mostly labor trades, there
should be more skilled jobs like Electronics, business
fields - the problem of many inmates is that they may never
fall into such opportunities after getting out."
"Jobs which should be taught are those of high potentiality,
not something that necessitates journeymen papers."
"There should be various types of jobs and training in
prison...an inmate doing something he does not like isn't
going to help him very much."
"As far as the training goes in these Places it really doesn't
make much difference, as 9 out of 10 guys who take courses
in here never get a job at that kind of work on the street."
•
•
•
- 10 -
Though they were few and far between, some inmates felt
the training offered to them is adequate as it now stands.
"I find the present jobs and training here o-kay."
"I think that the training offered in prison is now
sufficient."
Most felt that training offered in prison - whether
adequate or not - is important.
"Yes, I feel that the education programs are very
important in prison and more attention should be
directed in this area by prison officials."
(the training)..."will also enable him to form a
work pattern which he can adapt to on the street."
"Yes, it's important, especially the vocational
aspect, because a trade can aid an ex-inmate to
secure a job more readily."
Clearly, with such similar responses coming from a cross-
section of inmates, a point is being made - and it is one that
should be listened to. The inmates are not criticizing the
system, rather they are critical of what the system has to offer
with respect to Dorchester Penitentiary and its training programs.
One inmate said that he wasn't ripping apart the system - it
was just that he couldn't understand how other prisons can
offer such good trades.
"The vocational training carried out in Springhill is
second to none in my estimation."
• - 11 -
As well, in most prisons the work conditions are totally
dissimilar from those outside - the inmates do not have to cope
with the normal problems of finding a job, showing responsibility
at work, and working a full day.
We feel that the training (vocational, educational and
social) offered in prison is one of the most vital factors to
be considered when dealing with recidivism. Its impact on the
rate of repeaters could be phenonemal if exploited in the proper
way. The inmates themselves have formed many good, sound
ideas on the subject and are quite willing to discuss them.
Perhaps it is time they were listened to.
•
•
•
- 12 -
V JUSTIFICATION OF THE PREDICTIVE CATEGORIES
In starting this project we had several objectives;
the primary one being the creation of a usable predictive
device. To make sure that this goal was achieved we used
"tried and true" predictive factors such as escape history,
number of previous convictions and education level. Another
objective was to try new factors to check on unique Maritime
conditions and possibly find better predictive factors. Some
of these new factors were the months of various events (birth,
convictions) and inmate opinions. In these, we believe that
we were successful. We also tried to arrange the categories
in a continuous manner to enable linear regression analysis
to be performed on them.
Looking over the factors which had been compiled, we
decided on two sets of tables. One was the inmate's personal
profile and the other, his criminal history. The former could
be completed only on "present" inmates and, therefore, we
have simply done the survey. Follow-up studies will have to
be carried out to determine the success or failure of these
inmates. We now turn to the criminal history profile.
FPS NUMBER
The main reason for including this is for deletion
purposes. For example, if an inmate has had five releases,
the tables will not be biased in his direction.
•
•
•
•
- 13 -
Month of Birth
It was pointed out that signs of the Zodiac might have
an effect on inmates' success rate. Month of birth was added
for our own interest and its relation to success is surprising.
Year of Birth
This is used in computing age at various events (first
conviction, release). This factor has been used in all pre-
dictive studies.
Month of Release
This is a new factor. We tried to determine whether
the season of release had any effect on recidivism. Here
again, the results are interesting.
Year of Release
This was needed to check on "age hump" to see if at
certain ages, an inmate is more likely to succeed.
Status
We are here concerned with expiry, parole, mandatory
supervision, and "other", dealing only with releases. This
section also shows the relative effectiveness of the first
three. "Other" is release by death or court order. Perhaps
if the sample were larger, we would have been able to predict
the type of inmate likely to die in prison.
Month of Birth, Month of Release
Due to the unusual results obtained with these two
factors, we decided to explore them further. Using the mean-
square contingency coefficient it was determined (after the
tables had been set up) that they had an appreciable to
•
•
- 14 -
considerable relation to the case outcome.
Year of (1) first adult conviction (2) first adult commission to institution and (3) first adult commission to penitentiary.
These are used in various predictive studies (actually
age at the various events). But we found that in certain cases
the date of the event was more important than the age at which
it occurred.
Type of Present Conviction and Most Serious Conviction.
Again, these factors are used in all studies. We used
Justin Ciale's list of offences and added ten of our own.
Total Number of Convictions
Unlike most studies, which consider a court sentencing
as one conviction, we - no matter how many charges there are -
count every conviction or charge on the FPS sheet. This is
our most accurate predictive device.
Total Aggregate Sentence
This is another new category. We made a cumulative
total of all suspended sentences and concurrent sentences.
See "aggregate sentence" for time actually served.
Violent and Sexual Offence History
We tried to differentiate between somebody who has a
history of minor violent and sexual offences (we just say "yes"
if he has the history) and somebody who has major violent or
sexual offences (here we record the actual number). The results
are noteworthy. •
•
•
- 15 -
Escape Record
A simple "yes" or "no" answer sufficed. We found some
correlation.
Number of Paroles Granted
As this study is supervised by the National Parole Service
we inserted this category for their . benefit.
Number of Successful Paroles
We calculate this by the ratio of paroles granted to
paroles successful; the men who never received parole are
classed "other."
M. S. Forfeitures
As a predictive factor this fails. We included this
for the same reason as parole analysis. Our sample is about
50% M.S.
Accomplices
Justin Ciale included this factor and since in our test
sample (1972) it was easy to find, we included it also. Unfor-
tunately the information was inaccessible for the remaining
years. So despite the fact that it has considerable bearing on
the outcome of the case, the table is unreliable. The fact of
having had accomplices appears to lessen the chances for success.
Place of Birth
Newfoundlanders have a 45% success rate whereas Nova
Scotians have a 30% success rate.
Marital Status
This refers to the marital status on the first admission
to Dorchester. It was chosen because it was among the most
• - 16 -
easily obtained personal information.
Religion
This was an unusual factor. We did a test run when
we had 700 cards completed. We found that Catholics had
a 29% success rate and those people adhering to the United
Church had a 41% success rate. The difference was not as
significant when the sample size was increased.
Aggregate Sentence
This is the actual time sentenced. As a predictive
factor it is less effective than the total aggregate sentence.
Number of Penitentiary Terms
Again our results differ from the norm. This category
has only a slight correlation with success.
Outcome (Status)
"Success, Failure, Other." Success is defined as no
further incarcerations. That is, if a person receives a two
year suspended sentence he succeeds, and if he receives a
one-day jail sentence he fails. This definition provides a
dividing line. We have a second set of tables for releases,
1969 - 74 in which the success period is 3 or more years.
Releases in '75, '76 don't have the proper accuracy because
of brief time elapsed.
Age at Various Releases
This was computed from the date of bifth and dates of
events.
gl, No tables were made up from Questionnaire I. This can
be done with a follow-up study.
•
(1) no schoda (2) 1 - 4 (3) 5 - 9
(4) 10 - 12 (5) above 12 (6) other
(1) yes (2) no (3) other
(4) yes, educational (5) yes, vocational (6) no answer or N/A
(1) Mother, yes (2) Father, yes (30 yes (4) both
othet (d) no (7) no answer
• (1) married (2) single (3) common-law (4) divorced
(5) separated (5) widowed (7) other
- 17 - • VI CODING SCHEME I
0. FPS number (added after interview) L. Name 2. What was the last grade you completed in school ?
3. Do you think that the training offered in prison is important ?
4. Which of your parents went farthest in school ?
•
Mâther Father (1) 0 - 6 (6) 0 - 6 (2) 7 - 9 (7) 7 - 9 (3) 10 - 12 (8) 10 - 12 (4) above 12 (9) above 12 (5) other (10) other
5. What do your parents,generally make a year ?
(11) no school, not known, or N/A
(1) 0 - $4000 (4) over $12,000 (2) $4000 - 8000 (5) other f3) $8000 - 12,000
6. Did at least one of your parents have a steady job ?
7. Do you have a steady job when not in prison ?
(1) yes (2) no (3) occasionally
8. Are you ...
(4) no answer (5) not out of prison enough (6) other
(1) none (2)1 - 3
(3) over 3 (4) other
(1) yes (2) no
(3) occasionally (4) other, N/A
(1) yes (2) no
(3) occasionally (4) other
(1) undesirable (2) tough man (3) no label
(4) other (5) did not answer
- 18 -
gl, 9. How many dependants do you have ?
10. Do you enjoy seeing your children ?
11. Are you able to see your children ?
12. How would you describe the discipline you received as a child ?
(1) very strict (2) strict (3) firm, but kind
13. Was your childhood ...
(1) very happy (2) happy (3 ): nice
(4) showed little concern (5) let you do what you want (6) other
(4) poor (5) disastrous (6) other
14. What kinds of jobs and training should there be in prison ?
(1) more, and more relevant (5) other (2) automechanics (6) did not answer (3) vocational (7) more geared to inmates' needs for (4) theoretical life on the outside
(8) fine as it is
15. Do you think that you will be labeled when you leave prison ? How ?
16. Do you have hobbies and pastimes inside and outside prison ?
(1) arts and crafts (2) hunting, fishing, etc. (3) cards, pool (4) reading, cultural
(5) physical sports (6) other (7) no answer (8) no hobbies
17. Do you keep in touch with people on the outside ?
• (1) a lot (2) a fair amount (3) some
(4) none (5) other (6) did not answer
(1) none (2) few (3) most
(4) all (5) did not answer
(1) none (2) 1 - 3 (3) 4 - 6 (4) 7 - 10
(5) 11 or more (6) other, N/A (7) did not answer
• (1) none (2) few (3) most (4) all
(5) other, N/A (6) did not answer
(1) none (2) 1 - 5 (3) 6 - 10
(4) 11 - 25 (5) other (6) did not answer
- 19 -
18. Do you feel that you have an alcohol and/or drug problem ?
(1) yes 2) no (3) yes, alcohol (4) yes, drugs
(5) no, but in fact does (6) other (7) did once, but no more (8) no answer
19. How many of your offences were committed under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs ?
20. How many T.A.'s have you applied for while in prison ?
21. How many of these have been successful ?
22. How many charges have you had against you while in prison ?
23. How do you feel about your present conviction ?
(1) feel sorry you were caught (2) feel sorry you committed it (3) don't care at all (4) sentence too harsh
(5) other 4) did not answer (7) glad to be caught, helped
more than hurt
•
(1) expired (2) mandatory (3) paroled
(4) Westmorland (5) Dorchester (6) other
- 20 -
VII CODING SCHEME 11
O. FPS number 1. Month of birth 2. Year of birth 3. Month of release (if applicable) 4. Year of release 5. Status...
•
6. Month of first adult conviction 7. Year of first adult conviction 8. Month of first adult commission to an institution 9. Year of first adult commission to an institution 10. Month of first adult commission to penitentiary 11. Year of first adult commission to penitentiary 12. Type of present conviction...
(1) rape and attempted rape (2) indecent assault on female (3) indecent assault on male (4) other sexual offences (5) assaults (n»ot indecent) and woundings (6) robbery and attempted robbery (7) breaking and entering, breaking and entering and theft (8) escape and prison breach (9) theft of motor behicle
(10) theft - other than motor vehicle (11) possession of stolen goods (12) frauds (13) drug offences (14) habitual criminal (15) dangerous sexual offender (16) offensive weapons (17) contributing to juvenile delinquency (18) other (19) murder, manslaughter (20) Kidnapping (21) hostage taking (22) contempt of court (23) indignity to a dead body (24) mischief (25) arson (26) criminal negligence (27) conspiracy (28) perjury (29) extortion
• - 21 -
13. Type of most serious conviction...
(1) rape and attempted rape (2) indecent assault on female (3) indecent assault on male (4) other sexual offences (5) assaults (not indecent) and woundings (6) robbery and armed robbery (7) breaking and entering, breaking and entering and theft (8) escape and prison breach (9) theft of motor vehicle (10) theft other than motor vehicle (11) possession of stolen goods (12) frauds (13) drug offences (14) habitual criminal (15) dangerous sexual offender (16) offensive weapons (17) contributing to juvenile delinquency (18) other (19) murder, manslaughter (20) kidnapping (21) hostage taking (22) contempt of court (23) indignity to a dead body (24) mischief (25) arson (26) criminal negligence (27) conspiracy (28) perjury (29) extortion
14. Total number of convictions...
•
(1) 1 - 3 (2) 4 - 6 (3) 7 - 10
15. Total aggregate sentence...
(1) less than two years (2) 2 - 5 yrs. (3) 6 - 10 yrs.
16. Violent offences...
(1) no (2) yes (3) yes, 1 - 3 offences
17. Sexual offences...
(1) no (2) yes
(4) 11 - 15 (5) 15 and over (6) 50 and over
(4) 11 - 15 yrs. (5) over 15 yrs. (6) 79 yrs. to life
(4) yes, over 3 (5) other
(3) yes, 1 - 3 offences (4) yes, over .3
(1) none (2) few (3) most
(4) all (5) other
(1) none (2) 1 - 3 (3) 4 - 6
(4) 7 or more (5) other
(1) Nfld. (2) N.S. (3) N.B. (4) P.E.I. (5) Que. (6) Ont. (7) Man.
(8) Sask. (9)Alb. (10)B.C. (11) N.W.T. (12)U.S.A. (13)U.K. (14) ôther
(1) single (2) widowed (3) separated (4) divorced
(5) common-law (6)married (7) other
- 22 -
11› 18. Escape record...
(1) yes (2) no (3) other
19. Number of paroles granted... (1) none (2) 1 - 3 (3) 4 - 6
(4) 7 or more (5) other
20. Number of successful paroles...
21. Number of mandatory supervision forfeitures or revocations...
• 22. Number of accomplices in present offence...
(1) yes (4) yes, 2 - 3 (2) no (5) yes, over 3 (3) yes, 1 (6) other
23. Place of birth...
24. Marital status...
25. Religion...
(1) Baptist (2) R.C. (3) Protestant, United
(4)Anglican (5) none (6) other
•
(1) 0 (2) 1 (3) 2 (4) 3
(5) 4 (6) 5 and over (7) other
28. Status...
• - 23 -
26. Aggregate sentence...actual time inside...
(1) under two years (2) 2 - 5 (3) 6 - 10 (4) 11 - 15
(5) 16 - 49 (6) life (7) other
27. Number of sentences in excess of two years...
(1) success (2) failure (3) other
•
•
- 24 -
•
•
VIII INTRODUCTION TO TABLES
We willJimit our examples to the tables for releases in
the period 1969 - 1975. This is because they are more accurate
(as will be shown later). The tables used are SCORING TABLES
(1969 - 1975) and EVALUATION TABLES (1969 - 1975).
SCORING
The table is made up of two columns. In the first one is
the percentage success multiplied by 10. Therefore, to know
the percentage success of Catholics one looks up the Religion
table and divides the number in the success column by 10. The
relationship between a factor and recidivism is indicated by
the difference in the maximum percentile and the minimum percen-
tile. These are computed only for the subranges with 50 or
more total cases. Those subranges with 10 - 50 cases are also
included in the tables. The correlation determined by the
mean-square contingency coefficient (see Five Hundred Delinquent
Women p. 287) is as follows:
Maximum difference in Percentiles Between Category of a Factor MEL.PITEEY_PS1?Ê21..(11171Ëm
Less than 40 40 - 70 70 - 150 150 - 260 260 and over
Degree of Relationship Indicated Between the Factor and Recidivism
None Slight Appreciable Considerable High
•
Even if, let us say, year of birth and age at release
both have a 'High' degree of relationship we cannot use both
as they are relate to each other (are not independent variables.)
We did checks with the table of releases 1969 - 1977 to
show what accuracy is to be expected. In the interest of a
more exact table we did not do this for the table of releases
1969 - 1975. These would be more accurate since the success
•
•
- 25 -
period is greater.
The following is a list of the maximum percent differ-
ences in the categories of 1969 - 1975 releases.
CATEGORY MAXIMUM % DIFFERENCE x 10
Month of Birth 198 Year of Birth 142 Month of Release 172 Year of Release 36 Type of Release 146 Month of 1st Conv. 197 Year of 1st Conv. 122 Month of 1st Comm. 135 Year of 1st Comm. 157 Month of 1st Pen , Sent. 131 Year of 1st Pen. Sent. 93 Type of Pres. Cony. 193 Type of Ser. Conv. 223 Number of Cony. 314 Total Agg, Sent. 55 Violent History 63 Sexual History 201 Escape History 104 Number of Paroles 5 Successful Paroles 93 M.S. Failures 213 Accomplices 0 Place of Birth 105 Marital Status 94 Religion 49 Agg. Sent 49 Pen. Terms 42 Outcome 1000 Age at Release 165 Age at 1st Conv. 156 Age at 1st Comm. 142 Age at 1st Pen. Sent 228
To make the most accurate evaluation table, one picks
the five categories with the highest difference. This implies
that number of convictions (314), Age at 1st Pen. Sent. (228)
Type Ser. Cony. (223), M.S. Failures (213), Sexual History (201)
would be in the most accurate table. (Table 1 (1964-1975))
•
•
- 26 -
(Actually we use Type Pres. Conv. (193) instead of M.S.
failures because of inaccuracies in data.) Only the sub-
categories with more than fifty cases were used to compute
the maximum percent differences. We then add the lowest and
highest scores from the five categories and construct ten
intervals. (See EVALUATION TABLES 1969 - 1975 - first table)
The same sample that was used to set up the table is used to
compute the individual inmate's score. As an example, David
is in Dorchester Penitentiary on his 2nd conviction. The
first occurred when he was 21 for rape and the second was
assault. Checking category type of Pres. Conv, the class
assault we see his score is 300. Looking up rape as his most
serious conviction we see that only 21 cases are in the subclass.
We use the 380 nonetheless. (If, however, the sub-class isn't
listed we take the average of the maximum and minimum scores
in the category). The remaining scores are 528, 313 and 263.
(The upper bound in the year category is not inclusive.)
Adding, we get 1784, which is in the eight interval. (If the
total is above the highest or below the lowest, we put it in
the closest interval.)
This is done with all the inmates and the percentage of
successes and number of cases in each interval is computed,
giving the table as shown. If we wish to decrease the inter-
vals to, let us say, three we do the following:
1. Choose the new intervals.
•
• - 27 -
901 to 1131 1131 to 1706 1706 to 2051
RANGE % SUCC
12% 25.4% 63.3
# CASES
124 775 109
2. Compute new % succ = (# Cases, + g Cases 2 +...) (% Succ. + # Cases, +...)
new # Cases = (#Cases, + # Cases 2 +..„)
Let the new intervals be:
901 to 1131 1131 to 1706 1706 to 2051
The new table would be:
•
•
This concludes the discussion on setting up the scoring
and evaluation tables. The validation of them is left to the
section on DISCUSSION OF RELEASES (1969 - 1977). We will now
discuss their use.
Andy Levin is a notorious fraudman and bank robber. He
has bank robbery as his most serious offence (271), fraud as
present offence (238), was convicted 43 times (228), no sexual
offences (259), and was 17 when he first went to prison (179).
Parole officer Peg John-Stone adds these and finds that Andy
falls into the 1131 to 1246 range which has a 19.1% success
rate. She will be working overtime to keep Andy on the street.
One problem in chosing the categories (which will be
illustrated later) is that one factor might not be theoretically
as important as another (if it has smaller maximum precent
difference). This is checked by trial and error. The four
primary tables were made up of categories of steadily decreasing
correlation.
•
•
- 28 -
IX DISCUSSION OF RELEASES (1969 - 1977)
The releases in 1975 - 1977 have been out less than
21/2 years. This means that these releases are inordinately
successful. Since these releases would not produce accurate
tables we decided to demonstrate a validity test for the
tables. One half of the data is used to set up the table as
is described in the last section. (The first table on each
page of EVALUATION TABLES (1969 - 1977) are what is obtained.)
The second half of the data is fed through and outputed in the
same intervals as the first half. (These are the last tables
on the pages). A reason for inaccuracy is that there are so
few cases. This means that the maximum and Minimum percentages
are skewed. Comparing the percentages in the original evaluation
table and the check evaluation table we determine the accuracy.
Looking at tables one and two we see that there is a fair
correlation between percent success for each of the intervals
and hence the table is a fairly good predictive device.
Looking at tables five and six we see that not only are the
percent successes for the intervals different but they do not
go from low to high within the tables.
For a discussion of the factors see Sec. XII.
• - 29 -
X SCORING TABLES (1969 - 1977)
Note that subcategories with fewer than ten cases are
not printed in the scoring tables; those with fewer than
fifty cases are not used in the computation of maximum percent
difference.
•
DE-c- MAAImUM PERCENT SUCCESS I -531I MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 241
( ApP!1_ ( 4m ( 45 t T 7 7 T
i 3 i 21 i ( MAY 33
( 113 ( îl (
( 291 C 48 ( T r r ( 241 C-51) (
T. T T T ( SEPTEMBER ( 326 ( 49 1 7' T T t. ( OCTOBER ( 33 ( 62 ( 7 7 7 1 ( NOVEMFR ( 387 ( 31 ( 7 T T 7
(_
( 1UNF'
( JULY
AUIJUbf
e“, 0
(%SuCC.(#CASES tyr milug
T T T I ( JANUARY ( 361 ( 47 ( t 1 r Z ( FEPRUARY --t 265 C 49 ( 7 T T X ( MARCH C 2ù4 1 49 ( . T 7 T t
MAXIMUF PERCENT DIFEUNCE = 9 7
(7.SUCC.(eASES •
T T T t ( 21 - 24 ( 454 ( 11 C
-T ( 27 - 30 ( 521 1 23 ( t T t t ( 30 - 33 ( 352 ( 3A ( 1 • - 7 T T ( 33 - 3 • ( 23 , 1 ( 26 ( 7 i T - T ( 36 - 39 ( 39 1. ( 41 (
7 T T ( 39 - 4?
{ "5 i " f 7 1 42 - 45 1 276 1 76 (
YEAR OF BIRTH
KTUT4TP7r-PFRCENT SUCCESS MINIMUY PERCENT SUCCESS = 252
MAXImei PERCENT DIFERENCE = 61
F4T--=-47------î 3. .--,37----T-76 { ( /- - T
-C
( 4q - 51
f 51 - 54 ( ?89 ( 83 ( T t t t
( 344 ( 29 (
•
t;.CNTH OF RELEASE (ZS.UCC.UCASES
( JANUARY ( 288 ( 45 ( 1 T t 1 ( FEOFFITEY f-mr--f---11-T- T. 1 MARCH i 41L. i _IL4 t 1 APRIL C 346 ( 5?. ( T T t T 1 MAY ( 246 ( 65 ( r r r r ( JUNt t 5›.." t 60-17- T T t 1' 1 JULY ( 346 1 49 f 1. 1 T I .( AUnUST -- '_(( 341 f eA_i "t ( SEPTEMBER › 1 Ifen_i___Ini t
COCTOBER ( e98, ( 5f ( T r r r f NOVEMBER ( 272 ( :55 ( T 1 r r ( DECEMBER ' C 322 - 1 59 f
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS E-357 MINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 246
1-----MWTIMIW-PERCEN1 DIFERENcE-7=7-1-0-4
CZ-SIIIT7C-errST-S YEAR OF RELEASE
1 69 - 7? 1 Z93 1 259 1
MONTH OF 1ST COMVICTION
( JANUARY
(ZSUCC.(#CASES
( 377 ( 45 (
{2.22_4___Ini (?6 ( 49 ( T — T. 7 ( 224 ( 58 c r T r ( 285 ( 56 ( r 1 Z ( - 400 ( 5Q t T T r ( 367 ( A,9 ( T ' 1 - • - 1 ( 295 t 71 ( T T T ( 287 ( 66 ( r T r ( 436 ( 55 ( T T 1 ( 3'J 0 ( 60 (
( FEPRUAaY_
( MARCH
( APRIL
( MAY
( JUPE
C JULY
( AUf;UST 7 -
( SEPTFMnER
( OCTOBER
( NOVEMDER
( Z2 — 75 ( P63 ( ZA3 T — Z T
( 57 ( 136 ( MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = - 5T,( - MININLM PFRCENT SUCCESS = 263
MAXIMIP' PERCENT DIFERENCE = 244
(1SUCC.(#CASES TYPF- 01- RELA-Abb (SIAIUS;
T r t r ( EXPIREY ( 773 ( 20 ( T T T T ( re.s. r 344 t 250 ( T T T T ( PAPOLE ( 18'1 ( 11 ( 7 I 1 —T ( u!H. e5 ( 16 c
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 273
MAXPeUY PERCENT DIFFPENCE = 1(.1 7
YFAP OF 1ST CONVTCTION (Z SUCC. C# CASES
MONTH OF 1ST COMMITAL (% SU CC.(4 C A S ES
•
PFRCENT SUCCESS z-----ra -U m I reUfl PC RCENT SUCCESS = ??4
"°i4YIMHm. PERCENT DIFFRENCE = 212
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS =---- P)7 mINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 269
( 45 — 4.'c, ( T T --T— —T C if — 51 C 25C ( 70 ( T- r t r ( 51 —54 " ( Z85 ( 21 ( r r f t ( 54 — 57 C 4?8 1 35 ( C 57 — 6u C 281 C 71 t T T T r ( 60 — 63 ( 333 ( 75 ( t T T T ( 63 — 66 ' (323 ( 1Q5 ( "( 7 7 T ( 66 — 69 ( 269 ( 130 ( T. 7 7 T
mr—f _., , ( 7e; — 75 ( ,?,8 ( 4Z (
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 91
2. r r : JANUARY ( 454 ( 44 ( T. T T T ( FEPRUARY ( '82 ( 46 (
T T ( MARCH ( 319 ( 47 ( T T T T ( APRIL T
4 1 85 i 54 i
( MAY -(.
4, 245
1 1UNE 1
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS
( ( JULY ( Ale (----
( 38 ( 49 ( T T T T ( AUGuST ( 378 ( 66 ( t T t T ( SEPTEMBER ( OCTOBER
( NOVEMBER
( .DELEmBER MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 185
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 193
( 327 ( 61 ( T Z T
( 408 t 49 ( 1--1"----1-
{ 2 39 ( 71 C
t t
USUCC.(#CA S ES YFAR OF 11T (70MMl1AL
T T T t ( 45 -48 ( 163 ( 11 ( r r r r U48 - - -51 ---------- ( 227 - ( 72. ( . r r r r ( 51 -1+ (?72 ( 2Z ( T T - Z ( 54 - 5( ( 4Y1 ( a-i (
T T T T ( 57 - 60 ( 351 .i 54 t T I -T ( 60 - 63 ----- - ' ( 263 ( 76 ( T T T T ( 63 - 66 ( 387 ( 98 ( T T T T ( 6o T 7 1 ( 69 - 72 (
i 4 11__i___U.A . = -ZiT = 263
mAXIMUM PeRCENI DIFERENCE = 14?i
(ZSUIC.tRLASES moNTu OF MT PFN. TERm
( JANuARy ( 285 ( 49 (
•
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS
( ( ( FEr.RUARY ge 47 (
( .f. 34 (
T r r ( MARCH 34'', ( 50 ( r r r r ( APRIL ( 315 ( 5Z ( 1 T T T ( MAY ( 3 00 c 60 ( t T T T ( JUNE ( 326 C 46 ( T T T T
_ _. f ei,i---114 r ( AUcUST paL.4-51-i T ( SEPTEMBER ( 354 ( 6a( r r r r ( OCTOBER { 3â8 i 72 i T ( NOVEMBER.
-.
{ 2,7.? i 54 i T ( DECEMBER ( -469 1 46 I = -3R3 = 277
MAXIMUM PERCENT D/FERENCE = 11 1
(ZSUfC.(#CASES YrAP OF 1ST PEN. TERM
T T T T ( 4 5i - 51
_ ( 2.çc5 ( 11 (
T. Z T -1 ( 51 - 54 ( 218 ( 21 ( T T T T
MAxIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS
( 54 - 57 ( 55M ( 13 ( T 7 Z Z ( 57 - 60 ( 323 ( 34 ( r T Z Z ( 60 -63--- ( 318 - ( 59 ( r r r r ( 63 - 66 (?95 C 71 C T T Z T ( 66 - 69 ( 3u(1 ( 140 ( T T T T ( 69 - *72 ( 294 ( 146 ( T Z T T ( 72 - 72 ( 3 90 1 iln( = -3971 = 294
m-TyT1'1u17, PEP,Ct-N1 = Yo
ESCAPE 10 ( -r
C4S U CC .( #CAS E S TYPE OF PPFS. CONVICTION
1 T 7 7 1 IA-FEMALE ( ?66 ( 15 C T -( ( ASSULTS ( 420 ( 40 ( T T t 1 ( ROBBERY (3i14 C 69 ( r
_ r __ r T
( 6E4-T ( 313 ( 187 ( 1 1 T 1 ( ESCAPE ( 213 .ç, 64 '(
% 1 7 1 . ( THFFT-MV ( 11 ( 5 ( 1 7 7 T ( ThEFT-OTH T ( POSS. S.G. ( 315 ( 38 ( T r r r ( FRAUDS ( 339 C 53 ( 1 1 1 1 ( DRUt'S ( 714 ( 14 ( 1 1 T. 1. ( OFF. WEP. i 25J _i 16 i 7 ( HOMOC1DE ‘.. T T ( ARSON ( 3' ) 7 ( 13 (
S _
--777c1MU -PE-eC-ENT t MINImU''" PERCENT SUCCESS = 2u3
MAxIMie PERCENT DIFERENCE = 136
TYPE OF SER, CONVICTION T 1' T r C RAPE ( 363 ( 11 ( Z c T T
( 272 C 22 C 1 11 ( 818 4 11 4 ( 3943_8 *('
7 10a ( 794 i (
7
(7.SUCC.(eCASES
1A-FEmeL-E-
( SEYUAL-OTH
( ASSULTS 7 ( _ ROBBERY T
7
gl› ( IHI.F1-MV T ( THLFT-OTH
—1-371111k( .5'. ( T WT T ( 212 ( 33 ( •
T T 7 ( ( POF,S. s.n. C333 ( rt ( ( T 7 7 ( FRAUDS ( 310 ( 40 ( 7 ( / T ( Dxlir, ( PUU t 111 ( 7 7 T -7
r ( OFF. WEP,
( HOMOCIDE i "(
( ARSCM ( 285 C 14 C
MAYIMUM PEPCENT SUCCESS = -3-77
— 7 TUTMIT>r-P E R C E N i S U .FC-g_-3S "t• Tz. e-
MAXImUm PERCENT DIFERENCE = 33
MimF'ER 0F COVICTIONS (%SUCC.(gCASES
r r .t. , r _ (_ 1-3 ( 481 C S3 ( --( . T t -(
( 108 ( ( 7-10 ( ?oi c 171 i T T 7 ( 11-/5 C 319 C la? ( ( 15-50 ( t
MAXIMUm, PERCENT succEss =-4-FT ( 308 146
MINImUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 265
MAY,IMUi';, PERCENT DIFERENCE = 216 .
USUCC.t#CASES TCTAL SENTENCE
( 2-5YRS. -7- 6-1YRS.
7
(
_
( 324 22g ( ____T
176 (
7 111_4_1/11.4
357
n5 i1 L. UV t- MA>IMUllIFRCENT SUCCESS 357 mINIflUk rERCENT SUCCESS = 312
mA'ÀIMUr PERCENT DIFERENCE = 45
(%SUCC.(CASES
T T T T C NONE ( 313 ( 325 ( T T T T C YES ( 345 ( 171 ( T T T 4 1-3 OFF., ( 341 ( 120 I
7 T ( ( 333 ( 12 (
VIOLFMT HISTORY
çC OVER MA.),IMUF". PERCENT SUCCESS 7=7- 3Z5 - MINIMUT0 PERCENT SUCCESS = 313 MPXImUY PERCENT DIFERENCE = 3?
SrXUAL OFFENCE HISTORY (Y.SUCC(gCASES
7 T I T
. ( NONE • ( 317 ( 564 ( T T. T. t ( YES ( 475 ( 40 ( T T T T t 1=-1 01-F. ( .ee C 31 (
MAIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = - 31. 7 MI4IMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 317
MAXImUM PERCENT DIFERENCE =
(X,SUCC.(#CASES rç.cePF HISTORY
MiaIMU'd PERCENT SUCCESS MIP•IvoU ,•. PERCENT SUCCESS
YES
( NONE E -35 147
= 2:2 5
( ap5 ( a45 ( ____T __ ( 354 ( 392 (
mA>itlUA,RCENT DIFERFNCE = 69
C%SucC.C#CASEs
T r r r T T
C 316 i 4Q1 C ( NONF T
C 1-3 3 1 MAXI
C 42 C a3aMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = - 3.4t7
----mT-N-TwfUr -PERT EN t bULLIzSb- -‘=. 3it
MUM7'ER OF PAROLES
MA>IMu'l PERCENT DIFERENCE = 33
SUCCFSSFUL PAROLES CUUCC.C#CASES
T . t t ( NONE 331 C 211 C T T T r ( MOST ( 27'2 C 11 C -, ( ALL 4 434 i 46 i T ( NiA 3 ( 163 1
MAXIMUM ( 14
PERCENT SUCCESS =-337 . . ,
MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 314
MAxI' MUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 17
( 7.SUC C. (#CA SES FAILURE-S
re7,ximil PERCENT SUCCESS = MimImuk PERCENT SUCCESS = 245
---mAXIMUN—PERCTUT—DITbRENCE = vi
( NONE ( 337 57?
24 C • f7
ACCOMPLICES ON PRES. f'FF.
( NO 2? ( C 142
- - •
( ..ZSUCC.(fiCASFS
( UKN MAXIMLW PERCENT SUCCESS
MINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 341
MAxImUm PERCENT DIFERFNCE =
(ZSUCc.(#CASES PLACF_QF_PIRTE
7 ( NFLD. ( 58V ( e ( T T T T ( t,!.,';. Z 267 C 28 T T T
T ( P..I. ( 326 ( 49 ( r T T T
t ( 165 i le i 315 i 19j
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 12?
( F.
( ONT. MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS 267
CZSUCC.CfiCASES KAPITAL STATUS -p T T
( SINGLE f 1 n 2 i _Ial_i T ( SEPERATED ( 266 C 15 C .r r r r C DIVORCED ( 1a1 C 22 ( T T T T ( C. LAU ( 371 C 35 C
T.---""---1-r-r ( MAPRIED ( 369 111
MAAIMe' PERCENT SUCCESS .= .erP mINImUV PECFNT SUCCESS = 3r e,
RrLIGION
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS
mAxiroileCENT DIFERFbiCE = 64
U4SUCC.-C#CASES T T I T ( BAPTIST - ------- .( 313 C I4 C t . T T. t ( R.C. ( 291 C 34P, C. r r r r t U1'1. VW01. ( U4 i 116 C T T T ( ANGLICAN ( 1AO i ' 44 1
= 293
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 91
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCCSS
(ZSUCC.C#CASES , T T T ? -2YPS L T c 2-5YRS. ( 117_ C _al6 1 r . -T- -T- - C ( 6-10YRÇ ,,,, ( 35Z ( 119 C T t t t ( 11-15YRS. ( 152 - C 88 C r r r r ( 16-50YRS. C 347 C 69 i r ( OVER 50YRS. 1 104 i 105 C
= 304
eru;PEGATF SENTENCE
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE =
C%SUCC.(4ICASES Ut PEr.
( 1 ( 322 29E4
p.(E AT 1 51 CONVICTION
( /2 - lç
( 15 -
C 18 - 21
10 _1 ( 500
(%SuCC.OnAsES Z Z
AGE AT 11' CrITIAL
IIJM -PE RTENT IFERENCE = 41 • • • res-urn-rern-sts 1 T T
0 C .11 C .p.r. .•.e 7 7 ( 28. ( a98 ( 7 1 1
--4.1.11.-4--11Z4 ( al r - t 24 t ---( 27 t ---( 30 -
- 27 ( 318 ( 22 ( — ., --- __ t - 30 ( 476 ( 21 (
Z T T 33 ( 461 ( 13 (
MAxIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS
( 39 - 42 fl-
= 288
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 28
( 15 - le, i II9 ( e54 ( 1 T T T ( 18 --' 21 t 337 ( 163 ( T T Z I C 21 - 24 — — - ' ( 774 • ( 2 ( 1 ( 24 - 27 4 34 3
I
Q4 ( 23 i T
7 - ( 30 - 33 ( 36/ ( ii ( T T T T ( 36 - 39 ( 1QO ( 10 C T T t t ( 39 - 4? ( 545 ( 11 (
mAXIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS =---37 -mrnileuv -prwuni—succEss = er4
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFFRENCE = 63
• • • CSUCC.(#CASES
P- CE e.T 1ST PP,!. TERm _ . _ _ T' -- --I —
( 15 - 18 ( 233 ( 14 ( T T T T ( 18 - 21 C 308 ( 204 C I' T ( 21 - 24 ( 304 ( 82 ( t T T T ( 24 - ?7 C 338 ( 59 ( T vr -,.... 1, T ( 27 - 30 ( 379 ( Z9 ( T 1 T T r -- ( 10 - 33 i 10 i n_i
T ( 33 - 36 i 107 i 114 ( 36 - 39 ( UQ_ ( _AZ ( T ""T «1- ."T ( 39 - 4? ( 400 ( 15 (
MAXIMUi; PERCENT DIFERENCE = 105
MAXImU›. PERCENT SUCCESç =7-33> fr MIr4IMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 233
lebti" flP : TY: OF ;FES. COi ■;VICTION TYi': or 'JF.P.. CONVICTION
CONVICTIOS .iXUL uFE-t, CE HISTnRY CE T [J)ÇJ F
PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1 7 1? TO 1361 13.3 6n
• 1361 TO 1410 24.1 29 141P TO 145 () 21.7 46 145 9 1- :.' 15(i(± 31.3 ?0 ' Ili_ 1qU__ _.2.7...6 123 1557 TC 1cri!6 3 0.1 97 1/-•r_:_6 TO 16s5 7 i ? 55 . 1b5 TO 17 - 14 45.7 35 17L4 To 1753 76.7 30 1753 To 1;- .2 56.6 b3
CHECK TALE FOk : IYPF OF PRES. COMVICTIOr, TYFt OF ",ER.
CONVICTICMS SFYUTL OFFFCE HISTORY
1cT Ptrt , _
RANGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1312 TO 1 3 à1 13.6 66 1361 TO 1410 22.° 35. 1410 TO 1459 27.7 47 1459 TO 150',.' 7
6. 0 86 .
i c6.- • ç 51 rLoL i au, — , 1557 TO 1606 31.5 124 1.4 06 TO 1655 30.6 ' 49 1 ,-,55 TC 17 0 4 31.3 32 • 1704 TO 1753 4F.0 25 1753 TO 1502 61.1 72
re't-;Li. Fit : OF bnTH OF PFLEASF
KierrH CU 1 51 COMVICTIO,q FAILUPES
AnE rrLffiSr
PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 11L6 TO 1259 0.0 ü 1 2 5 0 TO 1314 G.0 2 114 lo 137 0. 1 11 1 7-7 TO 1442 20.5 39
_1442 Tn 1 5 _16.4 73 lçue!, TO 157 1". 27.3 132 l',7( TU 1634 31.Q 135 1 0 34 To 16 ,? 41.3 126
TO 17 6 2 4.4 5 .2 1762 TO 1S26 4.3 5;
CHECK. TAULE FOK :
OF DIKTH Y.C.TH OF ifl_FASE 5, CLTH OF 1ST CO ,IVICTION
FAILOPES AT 5:7-7 LI- AqF
RL;I:Gt- PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 114 TO 1250 0.0 0 _ 1250 TO 1314 100.0 1 1714 TO 137') 9.1 11 137 1 ; TO 1442 26.9 26 1442 TO 15c-el S1_3 W3 15(16 TO 157 1) 33.3 1?3 157 i1 70 1634 30.6 124 1 ,)34 TO 16E 129 1 6 , TO ' 1762 37.7 77 1762 TU 126 45.2 62
• • FOP '
YEtR OF :iri11 TYPr OF .FLFASE (STATUS)
oF 1ST CO:.IMITAL YFbR OF 15 1 COM,'ITAL
OF 15T RFP , _ TFRM
N G F. 1250 TO 1312 171,? TO 1374 1374 TO 1436 1436 TO 149h
TO 156_,I•L 156 TO 1622 1(2? TO 164 16'._4 TC 1 7 /,6 1746 Tü 1 0 3 TO 1.7ti
CHECK 1dLL FOP : YEeK OF HIRTH TYP OF ,,'ELEAE (STATUS) eûL vi- OF 1ST C01?mITAL YFPR OF 1ST COMMITAL •
OF 15T PEN TFPNi
PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES o
17
17.9 39
18, 3 71 71
3 1 ;1 1 0 3
31.1 104
29.0 1'.)7
. 40.0 9n
41.3 46
63.6 55
t!GF PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1250 TO 1312 25.0 4 112 TO 1374 17.6 17 1374 TO 1436 24.2 33 1436 TO 149 28.6 56 1L25 To 1_5_6» _27-2 101 156 0 TO 1622 33.9 109 122 TO 16"z<4 39.7 131 1:4F,4 TO 1746 39.3 84 1746 TO l'-'. 29.ü 62 1 .r, 10 170 35.9
• - 31 -
XII DISCUSSION OF RELEASES (1969 - 1975)
This section is meant to summarize the other sections,
while presenting the project's conclusions. We will be referring
to sections XIII and XIV, the scoring and evaluation tables for
the releases 1969 - 1975. We will first explain why there was
no check run on these tables. There were approximately 1900
releases from Dorchester Penitentiary and Westmorland
Institution in the period April 1, 1969 - January 1, 1977. 1854
of these were used in the study (the remainder left out due to
illegibility of release records). Of_. these1350 were coded (the
remainder having died or their FPS records being inaccessible).
Of these, 1010 were from 1969 - January 1, 1975. Using the
criterion of having at least 50 cases for statistical significance,
this caused problems. To verify tables we could use only one
half of the total number of cases in setting up thel -tables, using
the other half to verify them. This meant that for more
accuracy we couldn't verify the tables. We decided to have two
sets of tables. The first uses all releases and the second
uses the releases up to January 1, 1975. We demonstrated
how verification worked on the first set of data (1967-1977)
using 625 cases to set up the tables and 625 cases for veri-
fication. We use all 1010 cases (1967-1975) to set up very
accurate success tables. They are more accurate mainly because
(1) the success period is always greater than 21/2 years, and
(2) 400 more cases were used to set up the tables. We have
used the same categories that the 1969-1977 tables used in
the first four tables of this section for comparison purposes.
• - 32 -
We will have to obtain more data before we can verify these.
The scoring tables are interesting to look at by
themselves. For example, inmates born in November have a 40%
success rate compared with 20% for June. One point that
cannot be stressed enough is that the categories and success
are not 'cause and effect' but they do outline strong
relationships, whatever they are. Whenchoosing the categories
for the evaluation tables we tried to do several things.
Firstly we wanted relevant factors,(using the table in Sec. VIII).
We also attempted to choose five unrelated categories (present
conviction is related to serious conviction, etc.) for the
table. We also tried to choose factors that had an obvious
connection to recidivism. That is, month of birth and month
of 1st conviction don't have an obvious connection. Also ages
at events (convictions, birth, etc.) would seem preferable to
the years in which they occurred. Tables 1, 4, 5, 7, 11 and 14
are examples of this. They are fairly accurate, giving a good
distribution of cases and graduation of scores from low to high.
An error in the computer program caused the generation
of Table 6. The program was corrected but we were surprised
by this table. As a consequence we generated several other
tables using factors which should not have any relationship to
recidivism. The most notable of these are Tables 2, 9, 10, 12
and 15. They all show good graduation and distribution.
(Table 15 is especially notable since the graduation goes from
10% success to 90% success.) The main problem is, despite the
• - 34 -
XIII SCORING TABLES (1969 - 1975)
Please note that subcategories with fewer than ten
cases are not printed in the scoring tables; those with
fewer than fifty cases are not used in the computation of
maximum percent difference.
•
•
;. 1.'N 1-1 1 OF rIRTO
• (ZSUCC.(kCASES
T T T T ( JANUARY ( 264 ( 6P ( T T T T. ( FE"RUARY ( Q.„--16 ( P3 ( T T T T (.MARCH ( 266 ( 75 ( r • T , —r T i APRIL tr.5"--- i ( (2 T T. T ( MAY ( 235 ( 77 ( T T T T ( JUNE ( --148-2 ( 82 ( T T 7 T ( JULY ( ?43 ( 74 ( T 7 - - 7 7 T
i AW ,(-) ( WST
( SEPTEMPER ( '5:3 ( P5 ( T 1 Z Z ( OCTOBER ( -3- G ( 10() (
. t T T r ( NOVEMBER ( -Wi ( 63 ( T T T r
1 ebt c (3 t
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE =.198
---T-Z-E-CtMbER MAxIrUr PERCENT SUCCESS E -377 MINImUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 182
YEAR OF BIRTH
( 18 — 21 ( 21 — 24 ( 24 — 27 T ---
(?7
( 30 T ---
( 33 — 36
( 36 - 39
( 39 — 42
( 42 — 45 ( 45 — 48
( 48 — 51•
( — 54
( 54 - 57 MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIYU ERCENT SUCCESS = 164
mAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 142
17,SUCC—;(#CASES
( — 7
294 ( 17 ( Z - ( 17 (
15 ( — r
34 ( — r
48 ( - - t 45 (
(' ( 3'16 ( 75 (
T ( 2.2 ( R2 (
( 256 ( 125 (
( P77 ( 14 (
( 217 i 170 ( ( 164 ( 97 C
7 ( 45 ( 22 (
•
—
T-(
( 411 4no
c 529
( 250 (
( 244 (
•
MCNTH OF RELFASE •
YEAR OF RELEASE •
(%SUCC.UCASES
( JANUARY ( 17ii ( 56 ( 7 T 7. T (.FEisRUARY ( 316 ( 6Q ( 7 7 T T ( PIAI, LH ( J29 ( ez—t 7 7 7 7 ( APRIL ( 341 i 72 { 7 7 ( MAY i 7. ( JUNE ( 306 ( 98 ( T T T t 1 JuLy ( 35 , ' c r« T T. T T ( AuGUST ( 294 ( 95 ( T T T T e SEPTEmBER ( 261 ( 84 ( T" T T T ( OCToBrR ( 184 ( 92 ( 7 7 1 1 ( NUVtInkit- K i P52 i 91.4 T ( DECEMBER C 2R5 ( 91 (
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS--17- 3. 5(7 MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 178
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 172
(r.succ.(ticAsEs r e r r ( 69 — 72 C295 ( 521 ( T T —T ( 72 — 75 T(1259 ( 482j
MAX1MU1 PERCENT SUCCESS z: - 775 MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 259
MAximUm PERCENT DIFERENCE = 36
. TYPE OF RELEASE (STATUS)
(1JCC.(4CASES
T T 1 T t ( EXPIREY ( 1267 ( 367 (
• (----m.. F- 1.3 1 3u4 Î---- — 7 .
7 7 T T ( PAPOLE ( 59 ( 306 ( T T 7 T
( 38 ( 21 ( mr.xImum pERCENT succEss = -351" MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS' = 213
7-P—XLI—YUm PEXIENI DitERENLE =' 14o
•
gl, YEAR OF 1ST CONVICTION
T T T T f200
i 1Q...{ ( .2. - 45 ( 272 ( 11 ( T - T 7 - 7 ( 45 - 4e (e>.!+ - ( Us ( T T Z Z ( 48 - 51 ( 171 ( 35 C Z T T T
• ('51 - 54 - '-- ( I8 7 ( 32 ( T T. t r ( 54 - 57 ( 315 ( 57 ( T T T T t 5e - 6u t zn6 ( Ire—t T T 7 T ( 60 - 63 ( 306 ( 124 ( T 7 T T ( 63 - 66 ( 324 ( 185 ( T T T T ( 66 - 69 ( 234 ( 222 ( 1 7 7 7 T ( 69 -
T T ( 7? - 75 ( 242 ( 33 (
MA>IMUN PERCENT SUCCESS MINImU7e PERCENT SUCCESS = 2u
PERCFNT DIFERENU = 122
(Z SUCC. (# CASES
. . . I •
N -- 11 OF 1ST CONVICTIoN T T T T
ql, ( JANUARY T
( 246 ( 77 ( T T T
( FE!', PUARY ( 746 ( 69 ( T. 7 T 7 ( MAPCP ( 777 ( 83 ( Z T —Z
• ( APRIL ( 185 ( 97 ( T T T T ( MAY ( 258 ( 85 ( T T T r ( JUNE ( 382 ( 81 ( T T T T ( JULY ( 357 ( 70 ( T — -----r----T— 7----- ( AUGUST i 254 i 1Q6 .((, T ( SEPTFmPER ___ ( ?78 ( 104 ( ( i ( C ( OCTOPER ( 362 ( 9 1 ( T T. T t ( NOVEMBER ( 255 ( 86 ( T T T T ( DECEMBER ( 245 ( 61 (
MaxIMLW PERCENT SUCCESS
MINIMU'l PERCENT SUCCESS = 185
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 1 0 7
•
(ZSUCC.(11CASES eil0 OF ' 1ST COYITAL
_ - ___ T - r ---r ( JANUARY ( 308 (81 ( r T r r ( FEBRUARY ( 219 ( 73 ( ( ( ( ( ( MAf,C ,4 ( 325 ( 83 ( T. T T T ( APRIL ( 2 ) 8 ( 91 ( T T T T ( MAY ( 228 ( 92 ( T 7 7 7 i---U-4
( JULY ( 313 ( 67 ( T T T T ( AUGUST ( 316 ( 101 ( T T I T T ( SEPTEMBER S e 295 .. 98
t
( OCTOPER T
i 3. 17 i_ 8a i
( NOVEMBER T ..((. al7 ï Lani ( DECEMBER ( 279 ( 6i,, (
MAXIMUm PERCENT DIFERENCE = 135
(XSUCC.(gCASES
•
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS E--. - 347 MINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 207
rEAR or- isi tommiiAi • T T T T ( 42 -45 ( 300 ( in ( z .r T T ( .45 -- 48 - " - - - ---(" 333 ( 21 ( T I t. T ( 48 - 51 ( 142 ( 35 ( -T r T T ( 51 - 54 .( 166 ( 1-6--r---
-T 7 Z T ( 54 - 57
T ( 57 - 62
T ( a18 i' 105 (
T ( 60 - 63 t T T T
• - (— - 7 - . " T T
( 2 26 ( 11(7 (
( 66 - 69
( 69 - 72 •
( 72 - 75 mAYImW, PERCENT SUCCESS = 37s
---ml ,urerum -FET-rtNT—surc-tb = e26
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 157
( 238 ( 239 (
( 285 ( 161 (
( 295 ( 44 (
•
YEAR OF 1ST PEN. TERm (%SUCC. C# CASES
-“-15
( 63=:66 t _
(SUCC.(ICASES
, N1-1. OF 1 ST PEN. TERM ___ T
( JM1UAqY T r----- T
W 1 ( 264 ( 87 ( T T T T . ( FEr!PHAPy ( P87 ( 73 ( . T T T . T ( MARCH ( 1 -) . ( 8 ( T7 Z T ( APP1L ( 315 ( 95 (
----r— T ( mAy i 252 i 95
( JUE ( 309 ( 71 ( T Z T Z • ( JULY • ( 180 ( 72 ( T T T T ( AUGUST ( 2.9 ( 67 ( r r —r _ ( SEPTEMBER ( 311 ( 93 ( T. r r r ( OCTOBER ( 7 92 ( 113 ( T T T T ( NOVEMBER ( 7 68 ( 82 ( • T T T T ( DECEMBER ( 7 53 ( 75 (
----MAXIMUPF—PERCENI Stain-1z) MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 180
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 131
( 45 - 48 ( 277 ( le ( ( 46 -
( 51 - 54
( 54 - 57
( 57 - 60
( 6Q - 72
( 72 175 = -73 -- = 245
mAximum PERCENT SUCCESS mINImum PERCENT SUCCEsS
( 2.-J!) ( el ( . r
( 137 ( 29 (
( 440 (s 25 ( T ( 245 (\ 61 (
T ; e52 ( 95 (
r ( 338 ( 031
, ( 2:7U( i54 (
L T ( 250 ( Z5(7 (
T (- 273 • ( \95 (
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFbRENcE
•
U,SULC.CeCASES TYF-- OF PPES. CO"VICTION
( RAPE
( IA–FEMALE
SEXUAL-0TH
( 53F, (
C 419 (
( 875 (
(
31 (
16 ( ( ASSULTS
T _( ROBBERY__ ( RF+T
( ESCIPE
( THEFT–MV
( THEFT-0TH
( POSS. S.G.
( FRAUDS T----------- ( DRUGS
( OFF. WEP.
( OTHER
( HQMOCLDE
( ARSON :=7-3TiT
300 60
i 271 1Q3
t ?5P ( ( 2.9P
16
51 (
72 ( ___ t se (
76 C T-
( 555 ( 18 (
• ( 181 ( 22 ( 7 7
(65n ( 20 (
272 22 ( MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS
( 117 (
( 2(18 ( ( 31r (
( 236 (
f
MINIMUM PER-CENT SUCCESS = 117 , MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 193
USUCC.t#CASES TYPE OF OF SER. £ONVICTIQN
T T 1 T – C RAPE - — ' - C 38n - ( 21- (
T T. 7' 7 ( IA - FEMALE ( 377 ( 45 ( T 1 1 1 > ( sEr;u4L-oin ( (el'? ( 19 ( T 7 7 7' ( ASSULTS ( 354 ( 62 ( 1 7 1 1 4...-ROBBEEX ( 269 t 156 ( ( 7 T 7 ( PE+T i 253 i 37 5 i
1 C.-F=4 i -'. c 5 , ' ( Z. T T T ( THFFT - MV ( 113_ C 44 ( 1 , T 1 Z. ( Tl EFT - OTH ( 131 ( 61 ( 7 1 T. 1 ( POSS. S.(7. ( 243 ( 37 ( 1 1 1 1 C FR/Mob ------(-- —63 ( 7 7 7 T ( DRUGS ( fz4Z ( IZ ( 1 1 T –T ( OFF. WET, . ( 3 ) 7 ( 13 ( 7 7' T" 7 ( HOMOCIDE ( SU ( 24 ( r T 7 T ! ARbu"; ( 7 38 r----,t—r--
mÎXImUte PCENT SUCCESS = - 354 miimm« PEPCFNT SUCCFSS = 131
mAxImtiv PEPCP:T DIFERENCE = 223
. NUEP Of CoNVICTIONS
(%SUCC (CASES T T T T ( 1- 7 (5?S ( 127 ( T - 7 T--- T ( 4-A ( 28 ( 21 ( T 7 7 7
7 C 7-in
( 11-15 ( 221 T ( 171 (
T T 7 ( 15 - 50 ( 228 ( 232 (
MAX1f,TUri 1"t1-(C. 1 -
MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 214
MAXUUY PERCENT DIFERENCE = 314
(%SUCC.(#CASES
T T T T. ( 2-5YRS. ( 257 ( 369 ( T T. Z. T ( 6-10YRS. - - ( 3•r1 ( 283 ( T ' t T T ( 11 -15YRS. ( a86 ( 122 ( T T T T
U71 13 1. bt-NIEINCE.
( 15 - (YYPb. ( e55 ( el9 ( T T T T ( OVER 79YRS. ( 6iJO ( 10 (
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = -37D MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 255 --
• MAximum PERCENT DIFERENCE = 55
VIOLENT HISTORY
( NONE
( YES •(« ( 1-3 OFF.
(XSUcc.(ticASES
7 "7 *1 ( 252 ( 535 ( -T Z T ( 315 ( 263 ( T T' t ( 307 ( 195 C T T T ( 187 ( _16 ( ( OVER
KT71mum PECE_NE SUCCESS L--- 3777 MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 252
mAXIN"UM PERCENT DIFEPEICE 6 7
(ZSUCC.(IICASES SFYIPL OFFENCE HISTORY
7 ( NONE (
7 7 ( Yts ( 46:; 76 i
( 1 •3 OFF. ( 313 ( 51 ( iyrmpm pFPCENT SUCCES =7-46 7
rflCPIT SUCCESS =
0 11 x:''.UK Pr-KcEmT DIFFPEt,'CE = 2 ) 1
SUCCESSFUL PAROLES
( FEW ( 200 ( ln ( T T T 7 ( MOST ( 142 ( 21 ( T T T -T
. ( ALL 36,6 i 71 S t ( N/A ( 273 ( 5.74A
MA>IgUe- PEkLENT-7 mINImUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 273
vAxUs'il" PERCENT DIFERENCE = 93
(%SUCC.(#CASES
1110 EU,,RT HISTCPY
T t r T ( YES ( 212 ( 363 (
T T T ( 316 ( 645 (
7 r2r A- n'Tfrr- P J TC NOF1- = t.., — -- •••• ,...1.1.L-71E-2ed41.1.ilal-”-eut-ver ••■
MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 212
MAXI'ele PERCENT DIFERENCE
McFR OF PAROLES (%SuCc.(#cAsEs
T T t T ( NONE ( 279 ( 636 ( T T T T
( eft; 3(1 t ( MAxIne PERCENT SUCCESS 279 MiNIMUr' PERCENT SUCCESS = 274
MAxImU7' PERCENT DIFERENCE = 5
(ZSUCC.(1/CASES _ • _
T T T T ( _NONE ( ?7R ( 334 (
MU CC.( MCAS E S . FAILURFS
( NONE ( 288 ( 953 (
( 1-3 ( 75 ( 53 (
IXIMUM PERCFNT SUCCESS = 777
MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 75
—1MT- XletrrE7rtNT DIFt- kh^nt = 1
•
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS
(
P.E.I.
( T __ ( uNi.
---7- 34"7 - = 237
tARITAL STATUS
, 1
:CC(..PLI:Cg'S Or: PRES. OFF. T T T T , ( YES i n ( 11 i T T ( NO ( Lb ( 41 ( T T T t
( 291 ( 94P ( e r1- 7-s, x-r7urr----P F-P- c-Errr- s-u L L r_ SS. = —77T mINIMLW PERCENT SUCCESS = 291
MAXUUP PERCENT - DIFEPENCE =
(%SUCC.(eCASFS PLACE OF EIPTU
( NFLD,
T t T ( ?d3 ( 3n ( T r T ( 264 ( 68 ( - T T T
272 i t 322 ( 31
MAxirpg—FrERCENI DI )-ERLNIE = ILP)
^1AXIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS mINIMM PERCENT SUCCESS
(%SULL.(PLAbtS
T T t T ( SINGLF. ( 228 ( 592 ( T T T 7 ( WIDOWED ( 588 ( 17 ( T T T T ( SEPERATED ( 181 ( 22 ( ."( T t t ( DIVORCED ( 129 ( 31 ( r t r T ( C. LAW ( 125 ( 40 ( T - T r t ( MARRIED ( 35 ? ( 204 C = -352 = MP
MAX1mWA PERCENT DIFERENCE = 94
(YSUCC.(HCASES P'LIGION
- 7 ( BAPTST ( P73 ( 95 ( ( 7!61 R ( 540 (C
T T t
nr- DCENT SUCCESS = 3T' PEPCENT SUCCESS = 261
• ■ rr-;1- x -rem' PERCENT— UrFERENLL = 4 -c; ■ .
T OH '/ . PN01,„ i ?'<-) (
7 7 ( AN(7:LICAN ( 31' ( 74 (
T T T ( NOUE ( 166 ( 12 <
(4bUCC.(eCASES
( 171 ( 35 (
( 281 ( • 37 ( 7
( 270 i 17/1 (
( 3J9 ( 142 ( 7 ( 293 ( 109 (
( 26 ( 169 (
( NONE ( 'A ç lu C T T T. T ( 1 ( 262 ( 469 ( 7 T T T
T 2
7 ( VIZ • i L.2.6.11 ( _
( 3 ( a63 ( 114 ( T T T T
( _115 ( ( 4 MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS F. - 3(72. VINImUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 260
a61.!
MAXIMUm PERCENT DIFERENCE
:, (GPF±ATV SEPTENCE
( -2YRS.
( 2-SYPS.
( 6-1)YRS.
( 11-15YRS.
( 16-501"-U.
( 0%/ 5. R 5nYRS. MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS =77- 3- rer MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 26
MAXIMUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 49
(%SUCC.(#CASES Nilmr, ER OF PEN. TERMS
— CZStCC-.'(#CASES OUTCOME
T T T r ( SUCCESS (100n ( 281 C 7 T T T ( FAILURE ( (7) ( 728 (
mAxplw- PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS = 0
MAXImUm PERCENT DIFERENCE = ***
•
MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 37g MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = 163
MAXImUM PERCENT DIFERENCE = 165 '
4 T _ !L[ 1 [ 7 T T T
Z ( IF - al i 163 i 9 2 i
( 21 - 24 ( 192 ( 192 ( T T 1 1 ( 24 - 7 Z
i 256 i 164 i 2
( 27 -.30 ( 9 ( 1Q7 ( T 1 1 1 ( 73 - 33 ( 297 ( 94 ( Z T 1 1 ( 33 - 36 ( 32F (.67 (.T T r r -C---36 - 39 t715 t Si ( 1 T T .T ( 39 - 42 ( 411.! ( 39 (
-r 1 T 1
T ( 42 - 45 . • ' { 436 { 3
n
2 «i
1 ( 45 - 48 • _i 400 i 2i
( 44 - 51 ( 11t ( 1 7 T T
T -
54 i 428 i 16.. i ( 54 - 57 -( 333 ( 12 ( Z T. 1 1 ( 57 - 6r. c 384 ( 13 ( r T 1 r ( 60 - 6 ( 'nn ( in c
•
> mAXIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS MINIMUr.' PERCENT SUCCESS
AGE AT 1ST CONVICTION - (7.SUCC.C#CASES
( 12 - 15 ( 76 ( 13 ( T T Z T ( 15 - 18 C 196 { 432 ( 7 T T ( 13 - 21 ( 274 ( - 248 ( 7 .. . • . 7 T 7 ( al - 2.4 i 319 ( 7a ( T T •71' C a4 - 27 (,. 352 ( 51 ( T t -e--- T C 27 - 30 ( 482 ( a9 ( T T T T C 30 - 33 ( 368 ( 19 ( t t t ( 33 - 36 ( 444 ( 18 1 T T T T ( 36 - 39 ( 400 ( 10 ( t Z Z Z ( 39 - 42 ( 615 ( 13 ( = -I5Z = 191,
MAxIYLP. PERCENT DIFERU;CE = 156
,rE AT 1ST CO':ITTAL
•
2 4
• 1
MAXIMW.: PERCENT SUCCESS mINIMUm PERCENT SUCCESS
(7.SUCC.U1CASES
-C. 7 7 r ( 15 - 1L, ( 214 ( 366 C T T T T ( 18 - 21 ( 26:1 ( 27:; (. T T T T ( el - e4 ( '?« i 9>' f T "r {
.24 - a7 ( 746 i sa i . 7 ( 27 - 3e ( 3 • ..4 ( 39 i 7 T T ( 30 - 33 ( ?77 ( 18 ( r r T r ( 33 - 36 ( 444 ( 13 (- r T T 7 ( 36 - 39 ( 375 ( 16 ( T 7 T T ( 39 - 42 ( 538 ( 13 (
= 204
MWrImilm— PERCI=NI oubREmLE =
(%silit.(4LAbtbe AGE AT 1ST PEN. TERM
T T T T ( 15 - 1P i 179 i 122.4 T. .
7 ( 18 - 21
( 21 - 24 ( ?63 ( 131 ( T 7 T T ( a4 - 27 ( 294 ( 95 (
T ( 27 - 30 ( 407 ( 54 (
( 30 - 33
( 33 - 36
( 36 - 39 T ---
( 39
( 45 - 48 MUImUM PERCENT succEss
pEPCENT SUCCESS = 179
MAXIYUM PERCENT DIEERENCE =
t ( 294 ( 34 (
( 333 ( 30 ( 7 7 T ( 350 ( 20 ( T T T ( .5n 0 c 18 ( T-11---T ( 40Q ( 10' (
•
• • rIpLE FOP : TYPE OF I RES. COijVIC110!: ryPr OF ezFP. CoNVICTTnN ;;Uwt ., EP ( , 1 C( , MVICTIOPS SEY14,L OFFENCE. HISTC,RY
fUl 1,ST PE_h_ LERP
P. 'NGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 9 1.1 T0 1016 6.5 31
1 1 6 TO 1131 14.0 93 1131 TO 1?46 19.1 2-62 1746 TO 1361 25. 3 1) 2 1361 To 147 ,, 3 a un 1476 To 15 0 1 7 2.Y 67 1591 TO 176 ' Le.1 44 176 TO 1P,?1 51.7 , 29 1-,21 TO 19 3C 58.3 12 1936 TO 2051 69.1 6C,
: 4 l'"ONTH OF E.IkTP
v, Or4TH R1LE.r1SE "- OPTP OF 1ST COMVICTION
FAILlueES LI .1,51FAÇF
R , d1On PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES
73 TO ?77 0.0 71
77 TO 971 O. 1
:? 7 1 TO 165 9.1 11 15 TO 1159 6.6 61 11SQ TO 12 _13-3 124 1?S TO 1347 22.4 246 1347 TO 1441 26.? 279 1441 TO 1535 41. , 196 153 5 TO 162 2 50-::'. 59 1629 TO 172 54.:-,. 31
;,------- r— ----------------,,
------------------
3
TAfiLE FOy : YEAR OF rIRTH TYPE OF kFLUASE (STATUS) HC2NTH OF 1ST Coi"IITAL YEAq OF 1 51 COmfeITAL
Tr- RI?
k'u,,rF
PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES
',9L TO 1P1 0. 0 10
1 -, 61 TO 1132 9 .1 22
113? TO 1203 15.4 91
1 07 TO 1?74 17. 129 _ _______1224 TO 13.45_
1745 TO 1416 24.6 207
1416 Tn 14;i7 39.7 146
147 TO 155 50.H 120
155L TO 1629 32.6 ‘ 43
1629 TO 1700 1 .4 37
•
• __e__
TL FO r rSUEE HISTY i--LCE OF ofrTH erU fcr 1ÇT CUf.:VICTTON
AT 1 ST COIITTAL
kCF PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 154 TO 111 17.5 160 11 1 TO 11 2 15. 0 117 11 .c..,? .1. 124f, 24. 3 115 1246 TO 1310 24.:), 121 171c; IL 1 7 74 23.—L Ulu_
1774 TO 14 7.i , 36.7 • 179 143>' TO 15 1 2 44.2 _ 52
TO 1566 32.0 25 1566 TO 1630 20.3 3 3 1/:3L, TO 1694 47.3 93 '
e
5
TABLE FOR: MONTH OF RELEASE TYPE OF PRES. CONVICTION TYPE OF SER. CONVICTION NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS SEXUAL OFFENCE HISTORY
RANGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES
899 TO 1009 9.1 22
1009 TO 1119 9.4 64
1119 TO 1229 13.7 175
1229 TO 1339 24.1 348
1339 TO 1449 33.5 164
1449 TO 1559 31.9 72
1559 TO 1669 34.0 47
1669 TO 1779 50.0 28
1779 TO 1889 46.7 15
1889 TO 1999 67.6 74
•
• • 6
TABLE FOR: TYPE OF PRES. CONVICTION NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS MONTH OF BIRTH MONTH OF 1ST COMMITAL PLACE OF BIRTH
RANGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES
957 TO 1051 0.0 3
1051 TO 1145 10.2 49
1145 TO 1239 14.5 166
1239 TO 1333 19.9 302
1333 TO 1427 31.4 258
1427 TO 1521 36.1 61
1521 TO 1615 30.6 62
1615 TO 1709 49.0 49
1709 TO 1803 62.5 16
1803 TO 1897 83.7 43
Pi-RCF\T uCC.
11.1 15. 3
16.' 2_6 . 26.? 34.4
39.1
11' 1()1 14'7.
1'7, 7
46 1 T1
U(;ES
• 7 •
A.CE
Af AT 'i:;1"
1/ T 7 ) c1 7
97 TO 1:: 7 1 TC 1177 1177 TC 12(:7 1-2 1:›7 7'7 1357 "=':( TC 1447 14L7 TC, 153( '577 TC 1 ; 27 TC? 171?
8
! TABLE FOR : ! MONTH. Of BIRTH i TYPE OF SER. CONVICTION , NUM2ER OF CONVICTIONS ; SEXUAL.OFTENCE HISTORY
AGE AT PE1E.P.SE (
TO TO TO TO To
TO TO TO TO. TO
RANGE 949
15,9 1169. 1279
-1389 . 1499
1609 1719 1829, 1939
PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1059 7.4 27 1169 11.9 loci 1279 19.8 2 58 13;?.9 25.5 314 1499 29.4 119 1609 41.4 58 1719 51.2 43 1829 45.8 24 1939 66.7 21 _ 2049 80.6 36
TABU'. FOI; : YEAR OF :IRTFI
OF RFLEAsF YFP; OF TYP OF 7-FL5.ASE (STATUs)
COMVILIIDN_
PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES
999 TO 1268 6.3 16 1 6 TO 1177 9.7 3 1
1157 TO 12L6 10.6 66
1206 TO 1275 19.4 124 1275 To _L344 1544 To 1413 27.1
1413 TO 1“? 32.7 1 4 2 TO 1551 74 4 J.,. 12 1551 TO 1620 4.9 45 102 (: To 169 56. 37
( to
TABLE," FOR ; ; MONTH OF .1,ST COMVLCTION YEAR OF 1ST CONVICTION MONTH OF 1ST COMMITAL YEAR OF 1 51 COMMITAL
> MnNTP OF 1ST PEN. TERm
__
RANGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1004 TO 1078 14.3 7 , 1078 TO 115? 21.4 42 1152 TO 1226 16.7, ' 9'; 1226 TO 1300 - 14. ,-,., 162 1 11 n TO 1374 751 ?15 1374 TO 144P.= 26.. 8 190 1448 TO 1522 39.7 146
----- ---1-522 TO 1596 40.6 96 15.91.577-1 _ , 50.0 ._ . 36.. . 1670 TO 1744----:----.48.0 › 2 5 '
---___
.--„
-
iTA3LE FOP : , TYPE OF SEP. CONVICTION NUME,ER OF CONVICTIONS
; M.S. FAILURES AGE AT 1ST PEN. TERM TYPE OF PF!FASF CS_TilIPS)
PANGE
%YU. TO 924 '7'4 To 1U6
1(.:36 TO 1148 114P To 1260
Tri 1377 1372 TO 144; 144 TO 1596 1596 TO 170i:. 1708 TO 1820 1R2C TO 193?
PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES
5 , 11.1 27 11.0 73 17.n 176 23_4 334 31.3 197 32.P, 67 43.9 41 60.5 3.8 74.5 51
,
/2 TABLE FOR MONTH OF PTRTh MONTIf OF RELEASE TYPE OF RELEASE (STATUS) mOPTh OF 1ST COVICTION Ji&NTH OF 1 51 COKmITAL
RANGE 965 TO 1049 1049 TO 1133 1133 TO 1217 1217 TO 1301 1301 TO 1385 1385 TO 1469 1469 TO 1553 1553 TO 1637 1637. TO 1721 1-721' Ye) 1805
PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES
0.0 4
5.3 19 80
22.7 172
25,0 252
25.3 237
34.3 14U
54.3 81
52.9 17 7
0.
,
•;•
•
„
_
t 3
TABLE FOR • 35 N 0 F
AGE AT RELEASE AGE AT 1ST CONVI.CTION AGE AT 1ST COMITTAL AGE AT 1ST PFN- TFRM
'
, RANGE .- • , ,..."..- PERCEN-T SUC. TOTAL CASES -
1012 TO 1 .100 16.4 134 1100 TO.- 1188 . _. 18.8 128 1188 " . T -0.. 1276 .:. ' * 22 3 , --- 157
're 1364 . .31'44 ." 1-:-40 1364 TO 1452 ' 3-4'.. 7 . 167 " 1452 TO 1540 _ -..,-.' a5..0 76 .
-
1540. TO 1628 -: - '.."_.36.7.6 '.. . 41
1716 TO 1804 53.9 -
• •-• •
. .- . • - . . • . . . .
. • ;::::-......•••••••- ••,..?•• •.,. .. .
• '... if'; "--••": " „.nc' . - "-• _, . --, t. . -." . .. : ,!..;_......,..,,,...,_„..,...,,..„.,,,,,..„,•,,,, ,w;.,,,......„-....„...,..,---......-;.--...,.......,-.......,......,.....›....„.i...,-;.,...,,-.........
. ., • . . . •. . . .. . .. • ..
-
- -
TABLE FOR : TYPE OF PRES. CONVICTION NUNER OF CONVICTIONS SEXUAL OFFEUE HISTORY M.S. FAILURES
,PILL_AT 1 ST _.1.>_EJL. IFRm
RANGE PERCENT SUCC. TOTAL CASES
844 TO 9.58 0.0 2
958 TO 1 e7? 0.0 25 172 TO 1186 17.8 11
1186 TO 1 3 0 17.9 346
Ilu TO 1414 ___31-1_ 251_
1414 TO 1528 28. 9 9 0
1528 TO 1642 41.3 75
1642 TO 1756 43.8 37
1756 TO 187u 54.5 22
1870 TO 1984 77 ..1 48
_
5-
PERCE.“ SUCC. TOTI. CASES 10. 3 cir„ lb.9 1q.5 ?4.7, 7-
-1?)3 n
7n r U., 1
• TAbLr Fr ■ : YLAK OF IfT l'En (IF lsr YEPI V;T COYmITA.L. YcLi 2F 1ST Pr.
CVICTLO . :S
1'55 1177 1137 TO 1 -21 1,7 1 T n 1 7-' 1 IC1
TO 1 -547 1 54? TC 1477
TC 1 1 11 1711 Tn 17'Y3 179 -ç: T. 175
CO!'<'; USPG::: C)EJF CT CODE= 15357 '-',YTES..4 ,'.Y A il-J:-.--- 11721 9 BYIES,TOTAL e.RE:1-',. AVAILABLE= 1351b .- -- YT'-S --..- g:R\r)P Sy" \ :' , A -',,-'.,- s- ..) F." AR.r, N-G534-; \ — - , - ir'l ESE R OF F. X T E I C S.-= ,
:0 ."ILE TIME= 0.70? SECeEXECUTIO'2 TI1=---- :''i.41 77E-Co /4.45 FRIUÀ-Y 9 SEP (7 '.,;f.TEI ,1 -
CÏ:FIAL
iv 0 eL c
TABLu 1 ST COM ,;ICTIO
YEr' fr !ST C•uVICTI 1ST C7TTn-1
YrAP F COie.UITAL MOT ;;JF 1ST PE',. TER _
kAi\P'7,[
PERCE N T SUCC. TOTAL CASES 1 -Ji- TO 1Ci7s: 14.3 7 1":7>"' To 115? 21.4 4? 1 , 52 TU, 122A 16.7 97 1 57 TO 1 3',:F 14.:. 16? 13ùb TO 1374 25.1 2 1:..; 1 -777-6 —TF 144":: -?fr" .
.' .'
1 +4 TO 15? -2 3 .? 14', 1 `2? Tn 15 (:.6 4 (3.A 1c- 9A Ti" 1.,7n cr• J:_ . •, '
1{,7 TO 1744 48,J-: 25
:***-****IL***************************************Ile****************************-* ****** * * * jn; HO0Y/MA32(;3.PAGES=50.TIME=111
c********************************************************************** c**** C**** ROUTIF FOR THE SETUP AND CHECKING OF GLUECK TABLES C**** TO DETERMINE THE PROHABILITY OF RECIDIVISM AMONG INMATES C**** RELEASED FROM DORCHESTER PENITENTURY (1969 - 1976) . C**** WRITTEN FOR A SUMMER PROJECT FOR THE soLicurR GENERAL . u**** c**** py c**** REG 40DY C**** MAY - AUGUST 1977 . c**** c*********************************************************************** C************************k********************************************** C******************MODIFICATION INFORMATION*****************************
*--;--F************************************************************** c**** C**** YOU MAY CREATE YOU (PdN CLASSES AND RANGES AS LONG AS YOU C*** USE THE SAME NUMBER OF RANGES IN YOUR TABLES . YOU CAN C**** CHANGE THE APPROPRIATE CLSHED AND RANHED SO THAT THE TABLES C**** WILL RE PROPERLY LABLED IN THE END . ALSO YOU MUST USE THE SAME C**** INPUT FORMAT AS THE PROGRAM CALLS FOR . C***t_THE PROGRAM MUST BE RUN ON AN EXTENTED VERSION OF THE C**w-UATEIV COMPILE R . C**** IF THERE ARE ANY INQUIRIES ON HOW TO MODIFY THIS PROGRAM C**** PLEASE FORWARD THEM TO : ,c**** N.P.S.
- 3WD—FLOOR RUBIN'S- 8LO. r**** 741 MAIN ST. c**** MONCTON N.B. c**** ElC 1E4
C**** THEY WILL FORWARD THEM TO ME . C**** REG HODY AUG. 29 • 1977 .
C**** *DULCE ET DECORUM'EST —PRO PATRIA MORI* c**** c*********************************************************************** C*********************************************************************** U**** C**** 1,2- DATE OF BIRTH (12.99) C**** 3,4- DATE OF RELEASE (12,99) C**** 5- TYPE OF RELEASE (6) C**** 6,7- DATE OF FIRST OFFENCE - (12,99)
C**** S,9- DATE OF FIRST COMMITTAL TO INSTUTION (12,99) C**** 10,11- DATE OF FIRST PENITENTURY COMMITTAL (12,99) C**** TYPE OF PRESENT CONVICTION (29)
- •- • )8. C**** 14- NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS (7) C**** 15- A(REGATE SENTENCE (7) C**** 16- VIOLENT HISTORY (5) C**** 17- SEXUAL OFFENCE HISTORY (5)-- - C**** ESCAPE HISTORY (3) C**** 19- NUMBER OF PAROLES (5) C**** NI- SUCCESSFUL PAROLES (5)
FORFITURES OR REVOCATIONS--(37) C**** 22- ACCOMPLICES (6) C**** 23- PLACE OF BIRTH (14) Ck*** 24- MARITAL STATUS (6)
(Pql 619
Ile 2r ( o )
e-i- 5P'SgENT o IN JAIL (7) c**** 27 - t; OF PENITFNTUARY TERMS (7) C**** 2 - SNCESS OR FAILURE (3) C**A* 2:;- AGE AT RELFASE (99) C**** Aç_,E AT FIRST CONVICTION (99) C**** 3 1- AGE Al- FISRT COMM. TO INSTITUTION (99) C**** 3 2 - AE AT FIRST COMM. TO PEN. (99) c-A*** c****.*.*****************-*****k*******************************************REG HoDy c**** MAXARF IS AN ARRAY OF THE MAXIMUM VALUES THAT CAN BE TAKEN r**** ON BY TH F CLASSES .
1 It.TEGfP*2 RECORD ( 3 2),SCnRE,32,3?),RAl'éTOT(32,32),TYPE,CLASS,RANGF 1-,TOTRAN,MAXARP(32)/12,95,12,95,6,12,95,12,95,12, 9 5,2*29,2*7,2*5, -3, : -3 *5,h,14,2*/,?*7,3,4* (,5/,FACT(32)/1,3,1e3,2*1,3,1,3,1, 3 ,17*1,4*3/, JTYHTOT(5)/5*‘/AECTOT,CSCORF,TOTMIN(3),TOTMAX(3),SUBMIN(3),FPS*4,
i2) eLOWeHI-G-1-E.DELTA,SCOPEC(1-0, - ), - `? OUT (`, ),RECSTP (16F) , .32) LOGICiL RAND0',flPNTON,CONDIT,DONE,CH CH'RACTCP NAki- k2O,OFFTYP*1n(29),PLOFBR*6(14),MONTH*1G(12),
4CISHED*3n(32),RANHED*15(32,9) C**** THr FOLLCWIt:G DATA STATEMENTS ARE THE HEADINGS FOR THE SUBCLASSES
DATA TOTMIMeTOTMAX,RAMTOT,SCORE,RECTOT/4103*0/ DATA MONTH/',JANUARY'r'FFBRUARYI,'MARCH','APRIL', I MAY', 1 JUNE l e
1 JuL -re7771.1(ius s EFL, F 'OCTOBER I N0VEMBER-1-7 1 1317-C EMI) ER '7 bATA OFFTYP/'kAPE', 1 1A-FEMALE*,"IA-MALE'''SEXUAL-OTH e r'ASSULTS', PP+E','PE+T','FSCAPE','THEFT-MV','THEFT-OTH','POSS. S.6. 1 1.'FRk'UDS'
WEP.','CONT. J.D.', 1 0THER', Z'HOMOrIDE',PKIDNAPPING','HOSTAGES'o'CONTEMPT . ,'NECRO OFF.'e'MISCHI iFF',"-. RSUN','NEF, LIGENCE','CONSPIRACY', I PERJURY'r'EXTORTION'/ DATA (RAN1ED(5,I),I=1,6)PEXPIREY','M.S.','PAROLE','WEST.',
î'POR. 1 , 1 0TH.'/ --- —DATA CPg- r%rfED M el),I=1,6)e (RANHED (.15eJ .) #.1=1 •617 -e l • •4--6-1-7-1 7----1 cr. „
l• ','15-79YRS.', 1 0VFR 79YRS.'/
0 Cb -FA KRAMHED(I,J),I=16,17),J=1,5)/2*'NONE',2* . YES I ,2* 7 1-3 OFF.', $2*'OVER 3',2*'OTHFR 1 / DATA (PANHED(1 , I),1=1,3),(RANHED(19,J),J=1,5)/ t YES','NONF',
$ 1 0THER I ,'NONE', $ 1-3','4-6','OVER 7 1 ,'OTHER I /
11 DATA ((RANHED(1,J),J=1,5),I=20,21)PNONE','FF40, 1 MOST's'ALL's ('''OTHER't
12 DATA (RANHED(22,I),I=1,),(RANHED(24,J),J=1,7)/ 1 YES'o'N0'. 1 YES-1', 3','UKN. ','SINGLE','WIDOWED','SFPERATED','DIVORCED'e
s
•
ic. LAW'''MARRIED', 1 0THER'/
13 DATA (PANHFD(25,I),I=1,6)/ 1 BAPTIST e r'R.C. 1 , 1 0TH. PROT.', 4 1 ANGLICAN','NONE', I OTHER'/
14 DATA ((RAMHEU(I,J),J=1,7),1=26,26)/'-2YRS.','2-5YRS.','6-10YRS.', l'11-15YRS ', 1 10-5CYPS,','OVER 50YRS.', ",'NONE"1 1 , 1 2 1 , 1 3', 1 4',
T--'11--V7T-T-Y-R-t°,'OTHFR','SULCESS'e l FATLURL','01HFW-1---I /
15 DATA FLOU3H/'NfLD.','N.S.','N.,?.','P.E.I.'e l P.Q.', 1 0NT.'e s MAN.',
C**** CH IS THE CHECK FLAG . C**** IF Chz--.TRNE. THEN ONLY HALF OF THE CASES ARE USED TO SET C**** UH THF TALES THF OTHER HALF ARE USED TO CHECK THE RESULTS .
10 CP=. TUF. C**** CLSHED IS THE ARRAY OF HEADINGS FOR THE TABLES .
17 - - CLSPEOCTJ=JMO>:-T4 OF HIRTH
1- CLSHED(l)='YEAR OF PIRTH
19 CLSHFD(3)= 1 rONTH OF RELEASE ' CLSHED(4)= 1 YEAR OF RELEASE '
-
---- ?1 -am CLSHED(i)= 1-1YPE OF RELEASE CSTATUST-1 ?? ?3
25 . ?6
27 , 7;
31 3 -1
74 75 6
37
CLSHED(6)= 1 MONTH OF 1ST COMVICTION 'el. CLSHED(7)= ° YEAR OF 1ST CONVICTION CLSHED()= 1 UN1H OF 1ST COMMITAL ° CLSHFD( 0)= 1 YEAR OF 1ST COMMITAL CLSHED(10)= 1 MONTH OF 1ST PEN. TERM ' CLSHED(11)= 1 YEAR OF 1ST PEN. TERM CLSHED(1?)= 1 TYPE OF PRES. CONVICTION • rusTIER = "P . 1 . • " CLSHED(14)= 1 NUriHER OF CONVICTIONS ° CLSHFD(1Ç)= I TOTAL SENTENCE ' CLSHED(16)='VIOLENT HISTORY ° CLSPED(17)= 1 SEXUAL (IFFENCE HISTORY-1— • CLSHED(1;>)= 1 FSCAPE HISTORY 8 CLSHED(1°)= 1 NUPBER OF PAROLES 1 CLSHED(2r1)='SUCCESSFUL PAROLES ' rLSHED(21)=.S. FALLURES
r i . N
7 CLSHED -( 2 (?)= 1 ACCOMPLICFS ON PRES. OFF. b
' io CLSHE(23)= 1 PLACE OF EIRTH
CLSHED(74)= 1 MARITAL STATUS ' 41 CLSHEDU'a= 1 RELIGION 1 42 CLSHED(26)= / AGGREGATE . SENTENCF
CLSHED(‘77)= 1 NUMBER OF PEN. TERMS 44 CLSHED(2)= I OUTCOME
CLS1UD(2°)= . A 1.:r AT RELEASE ' 46
CLSHED(30= 1 AGE AT 1ST CONVICTION 1 CLSPFD(31)= 1 AGE AT 1ST COMITIAL
---e71.7"5-H- 4-32)= 1 AGF AT 1ST PEN. TERM INC=fl
r ,k***- FOP THE EYPLANATION OF GETREC SEE BELOW. S'• 1 CALL GETREC(NAME,FPS,RECORD,DONE) 51 IF ( DONE GO TO 999
U**** RETTFR-Dr?''.) IS 1HE FIELD FOR THE SUCCESS OR FAILURE . q?. TYPE=RECORD(2n
Ce**e THIS IS WHERE THE. CONDITION CARDS GO . C**** ANY CONDITIONS SUCH AS ONLY RELEASES SINCE 1972") ARE INSERTED C**** BETWEEN THE CARDS THAT CONTAIN ONLY ASTERISCS (*) WITH A GO TO 1 C**** IF THE CONDITION IS NOT MET. . c*********************************************************************** C**** IF THE TYPE IS NOT SUCC.FAIL,OTH THEN THE RECORD IS IGNORED .
53 IF C TYPE-7FI. 3 ) GO TO 1 54 IF RECORD(4) .GT. 74 ) GO TO 1
c****************************.******************************************* TYPTOT(TYPE)=TYPTOTCTYPE)+1 INC=INC41
_ •
57 DO 4 CLASS=1.32 C**** RFCSTR IS THE STORAGE ARRAY FOR THE DATA . •
f) RECSTR(INC,CLASS)=RECORD(CLASS) 59 4 CPNiINUE
ITEST=INC/2 61 ITEST=IFEST*2 6 1 IF ( (ITEST .FQ. INC) .AND. CH ) GO TO 1 _ 63 DO 5 CLASS=1,37 •
C**** FACT IS AN ARRAY THAT SCALES DOWN THE INPUT DATA TO A USABLE C**** f•;UMPFP THE AGES AND YEARS ARE DIVIDED BY 3 SO THAT THEY C**** CAN 13F i'ISED TO INDEX AN ARRAY
RANGF=RECORDCCLASS)/t-ACT(CrASS) 05 IF R,e.NGF .LT. 1 ) RANGE=1
r**** WE ADD it'!F TO THE TOTAL OF THE PEOPLE IN THE SPECIFIC CATAGORY . SCCIRE(TYPE,CLASS,RANGE)=SCORE(TYPE.CLASSiRANGF)+1
111G -RTOT— IS THE I r e 4 ..I', - —*CLASS . c'7 ̀, RANTOT(CLSSeRANGE)=RANTOT(CLASS,RANGF)+1 (,' . RECTOT=RECTOT+1
C**** CCTINUF UNTIL THE DATA IS ALL READ IN . (9 GO TO 1 7,j Y7° CONTINUE 71 NUMPER=INC 7? DO 11 CLASS=1 ■ 32
DO 6 TYPF=1,3 74 SUHMIN(TYPE)=999 . 75 SW.-CMAX(TYPE)=0 Té; A CONTINUE
C**** TOTRAN IS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF RANGES IN A CATAGORY .
. TOTRAN=MAYARR(CLASS)/FACT(CLASS) DO ln RANGE=1,TOTRAN . C**** IF THE NUMBFP OF CASES IS LESS THAN 10 WE IGNORE IT .
lY J. ( k 4 N101(CLAbbrRANGE) .LI. 10 ) GO 10 1f3 " DO P TYPE=1,3 .,
hl SCORE(TYPErCLASS,RANGE)=SCORE(TYPE.CLASS,RANGE)*100D/RANTOT(CLASS, I RANGE)
C**** IF THE NUMBER OF CASES IS LESS THAN 50 WE DON 8 T USE IT C**** TO COMPUTE THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILES .
IF ( PANTOT(CLASSeRANGE) .LT. 50 ) GO TO - t3 IF ( SUIMIN(TYPE) .GT. SCORE(TYPErCLASSrRANGE) ) SUBMIN(TYPE)=
T SLORE(FYHE,CLASS.RANÙE) 8.4
..i>
IF ( SUHMAX(TYPE) .LT. SCORE(TYPE.CLASS,RANGE) ) SUBMAX(TYPE)=7 SCORE(TYPErCLASS,RANGE)
9 5 2 . CONTI N UE ?-_'.6 1r CONTINUE _ __.— &,1 7 DO 11 TYPE=1,3
C**** COMPOTE THE MAX. AND MIN. PERCENT/LES . CLSMIN(TYPErCLASS)=SUBMIN(TYPE)
wq CLSMTT(TYPE ■ CLASS)=SUBMAX(EYPE) 9 .1
TOTMIN(TYPE)=TOTMIN(TYPE)+SUBMIN(TYPE) , 91 TOTMAX(TYPE)=TOTMAX(TYPE)+SUBMAX(TYPE)
. 9 1. 11 CONTINUE C**** THIS IS THE OUTPUT KOUTINE—FOR THE GLUECK TABLES c,- DO 65 CLASS=1,32 .
9 4 PRINT 11 ' 95 PRINT 106,CLSHED(CLASS)
Yo PRINT ltJJ TOTRAN=MAXARR(CLASS)/FACT(CLASS)
C**** THIS SETS THE LIMIT ON THE SUBRANGES C**** FOR YEARS AND AGES .
cr..? IF ( MAXARR(CLASS) .G1—. 90 ) GO TO 44 C**** FOR OFFENCE TYPES .
99 IF ( MAX(RR(CLASS) .GT. 20 ) GO TO 49 C**** FOR PLACE OF BIRTH .
100 IF ( MAXARR(LLASS) .111. 15 ) 60 rO J4 C**** FOR MONTH OF EVENT (BIRTH RELEASE r ETC. )
1U1 IF ( MAXARR(CLASS) .GT. 10 ) GO TO 59 1 1 2 Do 4n RANP.E=1.TOTRAN
C**** WE NOW OUTPUT THE RANGES ( COMPLETE WITH HEADINGS ) C**k* IF THE RANGE IS EMPTY WE SKIP IT ( AT LEAST ONE RANGE HAS C**** AN ENTRY )
IC3 IF ( PANTOT(CLASSrRANGE) .LT. 10 ) GO TO 40 Tu4.
P R-TNT 1m4
1715 PRINT 119,RANHED(CLASS,RANGE) 106 PRINT lnU , SCORE(1 , CLASS.RANGE),RANTOT(CLASSeRANGE) 1I',7 40 CONTINUE
- 1 P 5 - le --Go - ro - 77- Ili
1 Cg 44 CONTINUE
111.; DO 45 RA N(;F=1, TOTRAN
111 IF ( RANTOT (CLASS,RANGE ) .LT . 10 ) GO TO 45
11? PEINT 1:1 4
113 ' I1=RANGE*3
114 12=11+3
115 Pk I NT 111 .11e I2
— Ile:. • PRINT IUU.SCORE(1 , CLASS.RANC)E),RANTUTULASS/RANGE)
117 45 CONTINUE
11; GO TO 65 , ,
119 49 CONTINUE
12i7 DO 50 RANGE=1.TOTRAN ' ......._ .....
121 IF ( RANTOT(CLASSeRA.NGE) .LT. 10 ) GO TO 50.
172 PRINT 14
123 PRINT 112,OFFTYP(RANGE)
— 124 FR-INT 1 UU , SCORE (1FILASS , KAN(3E),RANTOI(CLASSeRANGE)
125 50 CONTINUE
12,.■ ro TO 65 .
12( 54 CONTINUE 125'2
00 55 RAGE=1,TOTRAN
12Y IF ( RANTOT(CLASS,RANGE) .LT. 10 ) GO TO 55 1 3 . PRINT 1T4
131 PRINT lli.PLORBR(RANGE)
—132 PTINT l'ITLre SC °RE (1 oLLASSeRANCIE),RANTOT(CLASS•ROFOET _
133 55 CONTINUE
124 no TO 05
175 59 CONTINUE
13é, DO 60 RANGE=1,TOTRAN
137 IF ( 1.ANT0T(CLASS,RANGE) .LT. 10 ) GO TO 60 PRINT 1.4
13g PRINT 114,M0NTH(RANGE) ----1 -4'n - ----FR-TNT- t.,_ , .' , • 1 " ,, •,.. I • • . % ■
141 . e CONTINUE
142 05 PRINT 10.CLSMAX(1.CLASS) , CLSMIN(1.CLASS),CLSMAX(1,CLAS5)- $CLSMn(1,CLASS)
C**** END or OUTPUT ROUTIN FOR THE TABLES PROPER .
143 p99Q CONTINUE •
144 ISTART=1 .
. . .
145 INCP=1 --C-M* IF 1HI5 IS A H CHECK RUN WE USE ONLY !HE DAIA iAI WL-USED - IN - C**** SETTINr UP THE TABLES . ( IE. EVERY SECOND DATA ITEM )
146 IF C CH ) INCR=2 C**** NUMTAP IS THE NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SCORE SETS THAT IS WANTED . C**** THAT IS IF YOU WANT TABLES FOR CLASSES 1.2.3.4.5 AND ALSO C**** FOR CLASSES 6,7.8,9,1n ThEN NUMTAB WOULD HE 2 . C**** NUMTAB CANNOT EXCEED 10 .
147 NUMTAB=4 --r**** NUM IS THE I- ALE CHAT IS PRESENTLY-MITNTE-VOTKED—n .
14S 66 NUM=0
14g f) 7 NUM=NUM+1
1 50 IF C NUM . UT. NUMTAB ) GO TO 99998
151 H1GH=O ------•
15? LOW=i3
C**** SEE SUUROUT1NE TEST FOR AN EXPLANATION OF HOW IT WORKES . '153 CALL TEST(OUTeNUM) 154' ------- no -7 7-minx=1,5
155 INDEx=owr(iluDrx) C**** T1-1IS SETS THE MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM SCORES SC) THAT THE C**** SCORE RANGES CAN PE SET UP .
WYE
156 --11, •LOW=LOW+CLS-ffTN(1,INDEX) • 157 HIGH=HIGHfCLSMAX(1,INDEX) 15 CONTINUE
C**** DELTA IS THE SIZE OF THE RANGE . 159 DELTA=(HIGH-L0J)/10 16 - ! DO 75 N=1,10 1()1 DO 75
C**** SCOREC IS THE TOTAL NUMRER OF CASES IN EACH SCORE RANGE . SCOREC(N,I)=U
163 75 CONTINUE C**** NOW WE START rHE COMPUTATION OF THE NUMBER OF CASES THAT C**** FALL INTO EACH SCORING RANGE .
164 DO 9n INC=ISTART,PUMPER,INCR cscoRr=n,
16 6 DO O IINDEX=1,5 1 67 INDFX=OUT(IINDEX)
C**** IF THr—RECORD IS UNUSABLE OR IF THE NUMBETFOT cesrs—is C**** LFSS THAN in THE THF SCORE IS THE AVERAGE OF THE MAXIMUM C*** SCORE AND THE MINIMUM SCORE"FOR THAT CLASS .
IF ( RECSTR(INC,INDEX) .GT, MAXARR(INDEX) ) GO TO 79 1f-, 9 IF ( PANTOT(INDEX , RECSTR(INC,INDFX)/FACT(INDEX)) .LT. 10 )G0 TO 79
C**** CHSCOPF IS THE SCORE THAT A CONVICT WOULD RECIEVE . 17n CSCORF=CSCORE+SCORE(1rINDEX•RECSTR(INC,INDEX)/FACT(INDEX)) . 171 (--, r) TO ,u1
- '172-- (9 CSCDRE=cScORETTCLSMIN(1,INDEx)+CLSMAx(1,1NDETM -72-- 177 .r CONTINUE
C**** THIS FINDS WHICH RANGE AN INMATE FALLS INTO 174 175 N=K+1
IF ( CSCORE .GF, (LOW+N*DELTA) ) GO TO 85 IF ( t .GT. 10 )
17t. SCOREC(N , RECSTR(INC..2))=SCOREC(N,RECSIR(INCe28))+1 -179 9T uoFrINuF
PR INT 1r9, (CLSHED (OUT (I ) ) ,I=1 ,S) PF, INT 115
1é.? DO 95 1=1,10 C*** ALPHA IS THE PERCENTAGE OF SUCCESSES IN A PARTICULAR RANGE .
ALPHA=0 IF ( (SCOREC(I,1)+SCOREC(1.,2)) .GT. 0.5 ). IALPHA=((SCOREC(I , 1)*100.0)/((SCOREC(I,1)+SCOREC(Ie2))*1.0))
1 F5 PRINT .? A* - • fel" '* p HA,SCOREC(1.1)+ $SCOREC ( I,2)
186 95 CONTINUE C**** DO THE NEXT TABLE .
1F ,7 GO TO 67 . . . . 1er. 99998 IF ( .NOT. CH ) GO TO 99999
C**** IF THIS IS A CHECK RUN DO ALL THE TABLES OVER AGAIN C**** FOR THE DATA ITEMS NOT DONE THE FIRST TIME THROUGH .
---M-ART=2 CH=.FALSE.
191 Go TO e, 6 12 Q9 999 CONTINUE
C**** OUTPUT FORMATS . •
193 in FORMAT ( 1-0,T51,2(I4.4X)) 194 1 r,1 FORMAT (",////,T.50,'(%SUCC.(CASES') 195 1 1.3 FOPMAT ( 1 -0,T1),55( 1 '))
r • • fin. -------------- 1 9 7 1 1 )6 FORMAT (",gX,A30) 19E FORMAT (",' MAXIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS = ',I3,/,
' MINIMUM PERCENT SUCCESS =
• MAXIMUM PERCNi -UT FE WEN ;1 -3 ;77/
1 t-+ 11 V)RMAT ( 1'1 TAI>3L1 FOR: ',A 3(i )pin ?u 11. U■ PMAT ( 1 4' ,T32,A15)
111 FORMAT ( "+",1- 32,1?4, ' - '3 ,12) 2 -) 4- f - 112 FORMAT ( 11 ,T3?,A1r) 2r .'i 113 FORMAT ( 2 n 4 11/f FURMA.T ( 14-1 ,1. 32,A15) 2C5 115 F't.)!VoAT ",110,'RAtI(E 1 ,T30, 'PERCENT SUCC.'•T45/ 'TOTAL CASES') 27e:- 11 F-01-CFAT UsI4.2 X, 'TO ie2X•1.4,T.i(l,F5 .1.1- 45,13) 7%, ? STOP
END
SUbROUTINF nETREC(NAMEeEPSeRECORDeDONE) (**** GFTREC READS IN A RECORD AND REPLACFS ALL 7EROS C**** FI AS ,'LL INCORRECT DATA e AND COMPUTES THE AGE VARIABLES . C**** AFTER THE LAST VARIARLE CARD IS READ IN IT SETS DONE=.TRUE. .
CHARACTFR* -2O NAME 211 INTFGEF, *2 FP.S*4 FRECORD(32),MAXARR(32) 212 LOGICAL DOPE
—213 ---TriVTA— Ur3FX-U-R/T?,95,12,95,6,1L,95., 1?., 95,15,e*29ed*(ré -k-57,3i3- *-5- , 6,14e-'et'e7 ..7.93,4*95/
214 DOWE=.FALSE. 215 READ(5,100,END=999)NAME 'FPS r(RECORD(I),I=1,28) 21A 1n0 FORMAT (A2Rei7e412,11eU2e9I1,12i511) 211 IF ( FPS .GE. 3U'UlUO ) FPS =1000002
IF ( FPS .LE. 1COUOU ) FPS =100°001 219 RECORD(29)=RECORD(4)-RECORD(2)
--22 ,7"---------r-F -T—RETuR1ul) .G1. RF.CORD(5) ) RECO1 --(è9)=RECO-RUT791-1- 2 21 i C (RFCORD(2)*RFCORD(4)) .LT. 1 ) RECORD(29)=U 2 22 DO 4 J=1,3 223 RECORD(29+J)=PECORD(54- J*2) - RECORD(2) 224 IF ( RECORD(1) RECORD(4+J*2) ) RECORD(29+J)=RFCORD(29+.11)-1 225 IF ( (RECORD(7)*RECORD(51 - J*2)) .LT. 1 ) RECORD(29+j)=n 72A 4 CONTINUE 227 DO 5 .1=1,32 72s - r FE C-0 D () 1 . XAkK ) ) C 0 RD ( 22'; IF ( P.ECORD(J) .ea. ) RECORD(J)=MAXARR(J)+1
CONTINUE 231 RETUR'l 23? 999 Dn ln J=1,32 233 RECOPD(J)=MAXARR(J)+2 234 12 CONTINUF 235 NAME='
—773 Fps t_1 -=z1NUU01 23? DONE=.TRUE. 23 • RETURN 239 END
• • 2 41/ SUBROUTINE,TEST(OUT,NUM) 241 INTEGER*? D1JY(5t),OUT(5)
C**** Durmy CONTAINS THE- INDICIES OF THE CLASSES THAT YOU WISH C**** TO USE WHEN YOU SET UP SPECIFIC TABLES . C**** NUI ; IS THE TAALF SET TRAT YOU ARE PRESENTLY WORKING ON . C**** IF YOU WANTED THE FOLLOWING TABLES : c**** TAC-LE1-1,5,27,2,31
TAnLE -2-7,3,6,9,11 c**** TAt?LE3-23,24,25,2b (NOTE THAT THERE ARE ONLY 4 CLASSES ) 1**** YOU WOULD REPLACE THE DATA CARD WITH : C**** DATA DummYi1,5,27,?S,31,2,3,6,9,11,23,24,25,26,26.35*1/ C**** -)TE THAT WHEN LESS THAN 5 CLASSES ARE USES YOU MUST PAD C**** THE REV'4IterER .wITH THE LAST CLASS USED . C**** ALSO THE TOTAL NUER OF VARIABLES MUST EQUAL 50 HENCE C**** WE PAD WITH 75 I'S . C**** THIS CASE WI WOULD SET NUMTAB (SEE ABOVE) EQUAL TO 3
242 DATA DUr''MY/12,13,14,17,32,1,3,6,21,29,2,5,8,9,10,1i!...23,30,31,31, '13*1/4
243 DO 5 1=1,5 244 0UT(T)=DW."MY((NUN-1)*5+II — - 245 5 CONTINUE
RITURN 247 ENO
- 37 -
XVI CROSS TABULATION
Cross tabulation of results is useful for deter-
mining whether two or more factors are related. Since we
construct the evaluation tables with mutually exclusive
categories, information with respect to inter-relatedness
of factors is necessary.
•
•
THIS VEPSION or—rIss—r ) 1 E' A ; _ J,1E0SES ONLY LEASE 6.02 STATISTICM PACKAGE FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES SPSSH —
SPACE ALLOCATION FOR TH/S RUN..
TOTAL AMOUT RUGUESTED 40000 F:YTES
50 200 400
DEFAULT TRANSPACE ALLOCATION
MAX NO OF TRANSFORMATIONS—PERMITTED MAX NO OF RECODE VALUES MAX NO OF ARITHM.OR LOG.OPERATIONS
RT-SULTING WORKSPACE ALLOCATION
5000 BYTES
35UUU BYTES-
WUN NP,ME CORELATION OF PREDICTIVE FACTORS — e4ARIAHLF LIST M0NBIRoYERBIR,M0NREL.YERREL.TYPREL,MON10FF,YFR10FF.MO11COM,
.. 4-YER1COMMON1PEN,YER1PEN,PRECON.SERCON,NOCON,TOTSENTeVIOLOFFe ''SFXOFF,ESCAPE,NOPAR,SUCPAReMSBAD,ACCOM.PLOBIR,MAR,RELIG, 4-AGGSENT.NOTERM,SOF
L.-INPUT FOPMAT FIXED(27X,4F2.0,F1.0,8F2.0,9F1.0.F2.0.5F1.0)
ACCORDING TO YOUR INPUT FORMAT, VARIABLES ARE TO RE READ AS FOLLOWS
Vf1 RIABLF FORMAT RECORD -. "COLUMNS
MONRIR F 2. 0 1 2— 2S YFROIR F 2. 0 1 30— 31 MUNHEL F 2. Li YERPEL F 2. 0 1 34 — 35 TYPREL F 1. 0 1 76— 76 MON1OFF F 2. 0 1 37 — 38 YFR1 —, EF F 2. 0 ' i 39 — 40 mON1C0M F 2. 0 1 41— 42 YER1C0M F 2. 0 1 43— 44 MON1PFN F 2. 0 1 45— 46 YFRIPt-N F C. U 1 4f— 4g PRECON F 2. 0 1 49— 50 SERCON F 2. 0 1 51— 52 NOCON F 1. 0 1 53— 53 TOTSFNT F 1. 0 - 1 " 54— 54 VIOLOFF F 1. 0 1 55— 55 SrXOFF F 1. 0 1 56— 56 ESCAPE F 1. 0 1 57— 57 N-UPAR F f. Li 1 5 — 55 SUCPPR F 1. 0 1 59— 59 MSRAD F 1. 0 1 60— 60 ACCOM F 1. 0 1 61— 61
OF SPS-S—I-5-70 PE USED FOR TOUTTIIC PUIS ONLY UP /31777 - 111,-- CORFLATIO F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
ACCORDING TO YOUR INPUT FORMAT, VARIABLES ARE TO BE READ AS FOLLOWS
VARIABLE FORMAT RECORD COLUMNS
PLonitz F 2. 0 1 62- 63 MAR F 1. 0 1 64- 64 RtLIG F 1. 0 1 65- 65 AGGSENT F .1 -0 --------1-- 66- - 66 - --- MOTERM F 1. 0 1 67- 67 SOF F 1. 0 1 68- 68
THE INPUT FORMAT PROVIDES FOR 2ï, VARIABLES. db WILL BE RI-AD IT PROVIDES FOR 1 RECORDS ('CARDS ° ) PER CASE. A MAXIMUM OF 68 'COLUMNS ARE USED ON A RECORD.
t--MISSING VALUES MONBIR TO SOF (0) 4.-VAR LABELS
x--MONBIRoMONTH OF BIRTH/ 'YEREIIR,YEAR OF BIRTH/ 4- 1ONRELeMONTH OF RELEASE/ L-YhRRE-LeYEAR OF RELEAbEJ '-TYPREL.TYPE OF RELEASE- STATUS / ;-1'1ON1OFF,MONTH OF 1ST OFFENCE/ /-YER1OFF,YEAR OF 1ST OFFENCE/
----4MON1COM,MONTR - OF - 1ST . COMMISSION/ e-YER1COM,YEAR OF 1ST COMMISSION/ -MON1PEN,MONTH. OF 1ST PEN. SENT./ ,4ER1PEN,YEAR OF 1ST PFN. SENT./ --ijRECON;TYFE Or PRES NF OFFENCE' 4,SERCON,MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE/ eNOCONfici OF CONVICTIONS/ .JOTSENT,TOTAL SENTENCE.-INC z CONC.-/
----- VIOLOFFVIOLENT-OFFENCE HISIORY/ 'SEXOFF,SEXUAL OFFENCE HISTORY/ ,-ESCAPE,ESCAPE HISTORY/ ,NOPARt# OF PAROLES/
■-)SULHARig SUCEbSFUL PAROLES7--- fISHADeti OF UNSUCCESSFUL M.S.'S/ eACCOMeACCOMPLICES IN PRESENT OFF./ L-PLOBIR,PLACE OF BIRTH/ , --MAR,MAR ITAL - STATUS/ - c-RELIG,RELIGIOUS BACKGROUND/ 'AGGSENT,AGGREGATE SENTENCE °TIME IN JAIL-/ ,--NOTERMe# OF PEN. TERMS/
LAbÉi VALUE LABELS
41MONHIR,MONREL,MON1OFF.MON1COM.MON1PEN (1) JAN. (2) FEH. (3) LMAR. (4) APR. (5) MAY (6) JUNE (7) JULY (8) AUG. (9) ,./SEP. (10) O•T. - (11) - NOV. (12) DEC. / ,TYPREL (1) EXPIREY (2) MANDITORY (3) PAROLE (6) OTHER / PRECONeSERCON (1)RAPE (2)I.A. ON FEMALE (3)I.A. ON MALE v(4)SEXUAL -0TH. - (5)ASSAULTS (6)R(WBERY (7) 13 AND E (P)ESCAPE TT-91- 1-R11-1-M.V. (1U)THEFI-OI1. (1-TIPOSST- S.(a. (1-2TFFKUDF
• URP CIR
N.P.S. cr—sTss is TO HE
CnPFLATIGiv OF PREDICTIVE FACTORS rz-s/31/77.
'(13)DRUGS (14) HABITUAL (15)D.S.O. (16)WEAPONS (17)CONT. TO i.D. 1418)0THER - (19)HOMOCIDE (20)KIDDNAPPING (21)HOSTAGES (22)CONTEMPT v(23)NECRO. OFF. (24)MISCHIEF (25)ARSO4 (26)NEGLIGENCE '127)CONSPIRICY.(28)PERJURY (29)EXTORTION / 'NOCON (1)1 TO 3 (2)4 TO 6 (3)7 TO 10 (4)11 TO 15 (5)0VER 15 '-'16)UVhR 511 / e-TOTSENT,AGGSENT (1)-2 YRS. (2)2 TO 5YRS. (3)6 TO 10YRS. 14)11 TO 15YRS. (5)0VER 15YRS. •(6)0VER 79YRS./ '-VIOLOFF.SEXOFF (1)NONE (2)YES (3)1 TO 3 (4)0VER 3 (5)0THER /
" -- J-ESCAFE— (1)YES - (2)NO (3)0THER kNOPARPMSBAD (1)NONE (2)1 TO 3 (3)4 TO 6 (4)0VER 7 (5)0THER / ,pLoRIR (1)NFLD. (2)NS. (3)N.B. (4)P.E.I. (5)0UE. (6)ONT.
(?)MAN.. (8)SASK. (9)ALTA. (10)B.C. '(11)N.W.T. (13)U.K. (14)0THER/ ' WIDUWt0--t.5)SLYKR-Alh1) (4)UTVURCED T5-)C. LAW
‘(6)MARRIED (7)0THER / 42ELIG (1)BAPTIST (2)CATHOLIC (3)PROT. OTH. (4)ANGLICAN 4 .(5)NONE (6)0THER
------ OTERM --(1)NONE - (2)1 (3)2 (4)3 (5)4 (6)0VER 5 MOTHER / (1)SUCESS (2)FAILURE (3)0THER /
4)RINT FORMATS MONBIR TO SOI (0) 4-1NPUT MEDIUM CUD
fl OF LAStS CROSSTABS VARIABLES=SERCON(1,29)/SOF(1,3)/MONBIR(1,12)/PRECON(1,29)/
NOCON(1.6)/SUCPAR(1,5)/PLOBIR(1,14)/RELIG(1/6)/ TABLES=SERCON BY SOF.MONBIR,PRECON/NOCON.SUCPARePLOBIR,RELIG
***** "CROSSTABS" PROBLEM REQUIRES 8700 BYTES WORKSPACE NOT INCLUDING VALUE LABELS *****
READ INPUT DATA
VEAKION-71T -S-PS-S IS 10 dE USED FOR ACADEMIC PLOOSES own' CORELATIMOUF PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
PAGE 0173177T
DATA TRANSFORMATION DONE UP'TO - THÎS POINT..
NO OF TRANSFORMATIONS 0 NO OF RECODE VALUES 0
WU OF APIEHM. OR LOG. (WERAilUNS THE AMOUNT OF TRANSPACE REQUIRED IS 0 BYTES
FINISH
L END OF JOH. 71 CONTROL CARDS WERE PROCESSED.
LI ERRORS WERE DETECTED.
COLUMN 165 249
TOTAL 12.6 1Q.0 (CONTINUED)
291 27.3 18.3 22.2 _ _
. a 1309
0.6 100.0 357 239
Turs-- vren-e-T- s-ps-. à If I #' .DEMIC PU VIES ONCY -fli.731 -7-77- "PAGE CDRFLATIO F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
FILE NuNAME (CREATION DATE = 08/31/77). • * * * * * * * * * * * * * CR O S S T A BUL A T ION 0 F * * * * * * * * * * * *
SERCL, MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY NOCON # OF CONVICTIONS * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * e * * * * * * PAGE
NOCON COUNT I
ROW PCT II TO 3 4 TO 6 7 TO 10 11 TO 15 OVER 15 OVER 50 ROW
COL PCT I TOTAL
TOT PCT I 1 I ? I 3 I 4 I 5 I. 6 I SFRCON I I I 1 I I I
1 I 6 1 61 91 2 1 81 0 ! 31 TWAF, 1 -1.4 I 19.4 1 , 29.0 1 6.5 1 25.8 1 0.0 1 e.4
I 3.6 I 2.4 I 2.5 I 0.8 I 2.7 I 0.0 I
I 0.5 I 0.5 I 0.7 I 0.2 I 0.6 I 0.0 I
I 1 I 1 I I I
2 I 18 I 13' I --- 10 -- I --- • '5 / 6 'I 0 I . 52
I.A. ON FEMALF 1 34.6 I 25.0 1 19.2 I 9.6 I 11.5 I 0.0 I 4.0
I 10.9 I 5.2 I 2.8 I 2.1 I 2.1 I 0.0 I
I 1.4 1 1.0 I 0.8 I 0.4 I 0.5 I 0.0 I
1 1 1 1 1 TF I 73 I 31 1 I 21 1 I 31 0 1 10
I.A. Om mALE I 3n.0 1 10.0 I 20.0 I 10.0 1 30.0 -I 0.0 I 0.8
I 1.is, I 0.4 I 0.6 I 0.4 I 1.0 I 0.0 I
I 0.2 I •'0.1 - - I -0;2 - 1 - ' 0:1 I 0.2 I 0.0 I . 1 I I 1 1 1 I
41 141 or 61 0 1 II C I 21 SExuAL -OTH.- I 66.7 I 0.0 I 28.6 I 0.0 1 4.8 L 0.0 I 1.6
1 i. . Ii.i • . .0 I. . 0.0 1
I 1.1 I 0.0 I 0.5 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I
I I 1 I I : 1 I
51 141 131 18 1 171 12 1 21 76 ASSAULTS I 18.4 I 17.1 1 • 2 3 '.'7.-- r----. 22.4 I 15.8 1" 2.6 I 5.8
I 8.5 I 5.2 I 5.0 I 7.1 I 4.1 1 25.0 I
I 1.1 I 1.0 I 1.4 I 1.3 I 0.9 / 0.2 1
I 1 1 I I I I
ROBBERY
8 AND E
Ô I li 1 44 1 4( 1 75 1 5( 1 . 2-7- I eua 1 8 .5 I 22.0 I 23.5 I 26.5 I 18.5 ,I 1.0 1 15.3 I 10.3 I 17.7 I 13.2 I 22.2 I 12.1 1 25.0 I 1 1.3 1 3.4 1 3.6 1 4.0 I 2.8 . I 0.2 1 I I I • I . I I I
7 I 29 I 93 1 145 I 105 1 123 I . 2 I 497 I 5.8 I 1P.7 I 29.2 I 21.1' I 24.7 I 0.4 I 38.0 1 17.6 I 37.3 I 40.6 I 43.9 I 42.3 I . 25.0 I
U.L 1 I- 2.e- I
1 .1 1
' Th15-VE -FeSI -ON --CF SPSS IS f0 BE USED FOR ACADEM 11',', _ o ' G0/3fTe? PAGE- 1 CORELATIOdIF PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
i FILE ',011FIE (CRFATION DATE = Ot731177) ._ _
e * * *e* * * * * *k* * * * * * cRossTABLILATI ofq oF * * * * * * * * * * *** * * *i SERCOP' MOST sulous OFFENCE BY NOCON # OF CONVICTIONS * * * * * * * * * * k * * * * * * * * * *'..`C * * * * * « * * * * * « * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE , (I
NOCON
COUNT I ,
ROW PCT 11 TO 3 4 TO 6 7 TO 10 11 TO 15 OVER 15 OVER 50 ROW COL PCT I - TOTAL
TOT PCT I 1 I 21 31 4 1 51 61 SERCON I I I 1 1 1 I
i. 1 41 101 81 11 21 01 25 ES-CAPE 1 16.0 I 40.0 1 ,32.0 1 4.0 I b.() I U.0 1 1-79
I 2.4 I 4.0 I 2.2 I 0.4 I 0.7 I 0.0 I
1 0.3 I 0.8 I 0.6 1 0.1 I 0.2 I 0.0 1
1 I I I I I I
q I 3 I '10' I' -- 20 - 1 - '13" I 11 1 0 I 57 THEFT - M.V. I 5. ,.5 1 17.5 I 35.1 I 22.8 I 19.3 I 0.0 I 4.4
I 1.e, 1 4.0 I 5.6 I 5.4 I 3.8 I 0.0 I 1 0.2 I 0.8 I 1.5 I 1.0 I 0.8 I 0.0 I
THFFT-OTH.
POSS. S.G
FRAUDS
r 1 1 1 I 1 I
5 I 14 1 31 I 17 I 11 I 0 I 78
6.4 I 17.9 I 39.7 I 21.8 I 14.1 I 0.0 I 6.0
3.G I 5.6 1 8.7 I 7.1 I 3.8 I 0.0 I
0.4 I • 1.1 1 " --2:4 -- "I• ---1':3" -- I 0.8 1 0.0 I I I I 1 1 1
I 14 I 5 I 11 / 0 I 44 I 31.8 1 11.4 I 25.0 I 0.0 I 3.4
0.0 1
0.4 I O.& I 0.0 I 1 1 I
4 I 31 131 61 • 481 2 I
5.3 I - 1 -.9 -- I - - 1 -7:1 --1---- 7'.9--I - 63.2 I 2.6 1
2.4 I 1.2 1 3.6 I 2.5 I 16.5 I 25.0 I
0.3 I 0.2 I 1.0 I . 0.5 I 3.7 I 0.2 I I I I I • I I
1 3 1 5 1 1 41 31 4 1. 0 T 19.
I 15.8 I 26.3 I 21.1 I 15.8 I 21.1 I 0.0 I 1.5
I 1.R I 2.0 I 1.1 I 1.3 1 1.4 1 0.0 I
I 0.2 I 0.4 1 0.3 I 0.2 I 0.3 I 0.0 . 1
I I ' - 1 - - - - I 1 / 1
161 51 51 7 1 21 11 01 20
I 25.0 I 25.0 1 35.0 I 10.0 I 5.0 I 0.0 I
I 3. 0 I 2.0 I 2.0 1 0.8 1 0.3 I 0.0 I
I 0 .4 1 U.4 1------(7.75----- 7 . 1 0.a 1
DRUGS
WEAPONS
-1 12 I
-1
"U I
11 • I 51 9 11.4 20.5
0.4 I 0.7 I
76 5.8
1.5
(CONTINUED)
COLUMN 165 249 357 239 291 8 1309
TOTAL 12.6' 19.0 27.3 18.3 22.2 0.6 100.0
- -THIS - VE.C11/-07"--- S-P- . _ I . ii• •, IL el 1 4 LY 081-31777 --1,---phG--; CORELATIO F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S. i
I FILE NONAMF (CREATION DATE =08/31177) I
.... __. .. ****************** CR ossi-ABLILA T 10 N 0 F * * * * * * * * * * * * * * k *
SERCOR MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY NOCON # OF CONVICTIONS * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * : : * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE
NOCON
COUNT I
ROW PCT 11 TO 3 4 TO 6 7 TO 10 11 TO 15 OVER 15 OVER 50 ROw • COL PCT I ' TOTAL
ToT PCT I 1 1 21 31 61 5 I 61 SERCON I / 1 I I I I
171 0 I 1 I 01 01 01 01 1 CONE. IC -7-7.-D. 1 u.0 1 luU.0 1 U.0 1 U.0 r u.0 1 u.0 1 0.1
1 0.0 1 0.4 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0 0 0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
I I I 1 I 1 I •U I 3 I -- "1 '1 - ---- - 4 - I • - --- 0 - I ' 2 I 0 I 10
OTHER 1 30.0 I 10.0 1 40.0 I 0.0 I 20.0 I 0.0 1 0.8
I 1.R I 0.4 1 1.1 I 0.0 I 0.7 1 0.0 I
I 0.2 I 0.1 1 0.3 1 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.0 I
1 I i 1 1 -r- i 19 I 22 I 6 I 6 1 3 I 7 I 0 1 44
HoMociaL I 50. 0 1 13.6 I 13.6 I 6.g I 15.9 , 1 0.0 I 3.4
1 13.3 1 7.4 I 1.7 I 1.3 I 2.4 I 0.0 I . 1 1.7 I' - 0.5 - I -- 0.5 I-0;2 - 1 .0.5 I 0.0 I
I 1 1 I 1 I 1 2n 1 01 11 fil 01 31 01 4
1 0.0 I 25.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 75.0 I 0.0 1 0.3 1.--.-, o
0.1 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.0 I
1 I I I I - I I
221 01 01 11 01 01 01 1 CONTEmPT 1 0.0 1.- o;n-r - irso.o 1 0:0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.1
1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I
1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.1 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 I.
I I 1 1 I . I I ?4 I 0 1 11 51 1 I U 1 0 I s
MISCHIEF I 0.0 I 16.7 I 50.0 I 33.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.5
, I 0.0 1 0.4 I 0.8 I 0.8 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.2 1 0.2 1 0.0 I 0.0 I
I I • r - -- I - I I 1 25 1 7 1 9 I •7 1 2 I - 1 I 0 I 26
ARSoN I 26.9 1 34.6 I 26.9 I 7.7 I 3.8 I 0.0 I 2.0
I 4.2 I 3.6 1 2.0 I 0.8 I 0.3 I - 0.0 I -07.0- i
COLUMN 165 249 357 239 291 8 1309
TOTAL 12.6 19.0 27.3 18.3 22.2 0.6 100.0 (CONTINUED)
KIDDNAPPING U.0
1• 0.0 I
THIS VETiliO-N Hb UsFD FOR CORELATIC F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
FILE hür.AMC (CREATION DATE = 08/31/77)
OR/51777
,. * * * * * * * * * * * e * * * * * *. CROSS TABULATION OF * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SERCON MOST SFRIOUS OFFENCE BY NOCON P OF CONVICTIONS
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 4 0
NO CON
COUNT I
ROW PCT Il TO 3 4 TO 6 7 TO 10 11 TO 15 OVER 15 OVER 50 ROW
COL PCT I . . _ _ . . . , . _ _ _ . _ _ . . _ _ . . .. _ . _ TOTAL
TOT PCT I 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 I 5 I 6 I SERCON I I I / I 1 I
261 31 21 0 1 1 I 0 I 01 6 NFULICILUE i 5U.I1 I 35.3 I , 0.0 I 16.( 1 0.0 i U.0 1 u.5
T 1.S I 0.8 I 0.0 / 0.4 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
I 0.2 I 0.2 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
1 I I I I I I
27 1 0 I • 0 - I - - 0 " / 1 I 0 I 0 I 1 CONSPIRICY I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1
I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.4 I 0.0 - I 0.0 I
I 0.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
--1 I 1 1 .1 -1-- I
PERJURY
. I I I I 1
2Q I 0 I 11 21 01 OI. Or 3 EXTORTION I 0.0 I 33.3 I 66.7 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.2
1 0.0 J. U.4 1 U.b .1 T)- .0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 1 0.0 I 0.1 1 0.2 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I I I I I I I
COLUMN 165 249 357 239 291 8 1309
TOTAL 12.6 19.0 -- - - 27;3' - - 18*.3 - - 22.2 ' 0.6 100.0
NUMFIER OF MISSING OBSERVATIONS = 549
281 01 1 I DI 01 01 01 1 I 0.0 I 100.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.4 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I • 0.0 I 0.1 --I --- o -;o --- r . - 0.0 -- I 0.0 - I 0.0 I
I I
• 1
THIS VFleN OF SPSS IS TO BE USED FOR ACADEMIC PU•SES ONLY 0 R731/77 • PAGE - CORELATIP )F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
FILE NONAME (CREATION DATE = 08 1 31/77)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CROSSTABULATION 0 F * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SERCOP MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY SUCPAR 110F SUCESSFUL PAROLES
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 1 0
SERCON
RKTE
SUC PAR COUNT I
•
R" TOTAL
TOT PCT I 1 I 2 I 3 1 4 1 5 I I I I I -------- I I
1 1 141 01 11 1 I 15 I 31
I 45.2 I U-.--a---1 5.2 I 5.2 I 48.4 I 2.4,
I 3.1 I 0.9 I 3.6 I 1.1 I 2.1 I
I 1.1 I 0. 0 I 0.1 I 0.1 I 1.1 I
, I
I.A. ON FFMALE I 32.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I 3.7 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I 1.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 1 / 41 01 01
I.A. ON MALF I 40.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I 0.9 I 0.0 I 0.0 I I 0 .3.'I' 0.0 1-
- 2- 1--
3.8 I 64.2:
2.2 I 4.7-.
0.2 I 2.6' '
0 I -6
0.0 I 60.0-> 0.0 I
L-z+ ,
53 I 4.0
1 10.
1 0.8
4 I 21 DI 0 1 21 171 21 SEXUAL -OTH.- 1 9.5 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 9.5 1 81.0 1 1.6
I U.4 1 U.11 I Li .0 1 2.2 1. : 2.5 1
I 0.2 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.2 I ' 1.3 1
I I I 1 1 . I
51 22 I 0 I 2 I e 145 1 ASSAULTS - ' I 28 ..6 I 0.0 I ---Z.6 1 10.4 1 58.4 I
I 4.8 I 0.0 I 7.1 I 8.9 I 6. 2 I
I 1.7 I 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.6 I 3.4 I
I I I I I . I
77 5.9
B AND E
6 I 66 I 3 I 5 I 1 e 1 TT5 I 20-1- I 32.8 I 1.5 I 2.5 I 6.0 I 57.2 I 15.3 I 14.4 I 30.0 I 17.9 I 13.3 I 15.8 I I 5.0 1 0.2 I 0.4 I 0.9 I 8.8 I I • 1
7 I 176 I 4 I 15 I 34 I 268 I 497 I 35.4 I 0.8 I 3.0 I 6.8 I 53.9 I 37.9 I 38.5 I 40.0 I 53.6 I 37.8 I 36.9 1
ROBBERY
COLUMN 457
TOTAL 34.8 (CONTINUED)
10 28 90 727 1312
0.8 2.1 6.9 55.4 100.0
1 1 .G POSS. S
08131 m le- -P -A G E."" ---'-/ i THIS -W*0N or SPSS IS TO HE USED FOR ACADEMIC P41,0SES ONLY CORELATI' ,F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
FILE NCNAME (CREATION DATE = 08/31/77)
* * * *• * * * * * * * * * * * * * * C R OS STABULA TION 0 F dr * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SERCO:1 MOST SFRIOUS OFFENCE BY SUCPAR # OF SUCESSFUL PAROLES
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 2
SUCPAR COUNT I
COL PCT I ROw PCT INewE F EW MOST- --10=!= l'4/A ------- Tgrk
TOT PCT I 1 I 21 3! 41 51 SERCOM I I 1 I I I
31 12 I 0 1 2 1 0 I 111 25 ESLAPE 1 05.0 I U.0 1 • 7.ii .0 • 1 44.0 1 1.9.
I 2.6 I 0.0 I 7.1 I 0.0 I 1.5 I
1 0.9 I 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.0 I 0.8 I
I I I I I I
9 1 16 I ' ' 2 -1------2- r---- 2 - '1 - 35 I 57 THEFT-!0 .V. I 28.1 I 3.5 I 3.5 I 3.5 I 61.4 I 4.3
I 3.5 I 20.0 I 7.1 I 2.2 I 4.8 , I
1 1.2 T 0.2 I 0.2 I 0.2 I 2.7 I
-1 1 1 I . 1 1 ln I 291 DI 1 r 61 421 78
THEFT - 0TH. I 37.2 I 0.0 1 1.3 I 7.? 1 53.8. -1 5.9
6.3 I 0.0 I 3.6 1 6.7 1 '5.8:I
2.2 r " - 0.- 0--1---0":1 -/-- 0.5- 1 3.2" 1 1 1 1 I- - 1
13 r 1 1 0 I 3 I 27 I 44
2 0 .5 I 2.3 I 0.0 I 6.8 I 61'.4 I 3.4
1.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.2 I 2.1
FRAUDS
I I.
12 I 36 I 0 I 0 I P I.32 76
" - 1 - 47.4 .- / --- 0.0-- 1---0-:0---1-- 10“:5 -- 1 -• 42.1 I 5.8
1 7.9 1 0.0 1 0.0 I 8.9 I 4.4 I
2.7 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.6 1 . .4 I .
15 i 9 .1 U 1 U 1 d 1 8 1 7-9 DRUGS I 47.4 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 10.5 I 42.1 1 1.4
1 2.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 2.2 I 1.1 I
1 0.7 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.2 1 0.6. I _
r 1 r- - I I" " 1
16 1 91 0! 0 1 31 " 8 1 20 WEAPONS 1 45.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 15.0 I 40.0 I .. 1.5
I 2.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 I 3.3 1 1.1 I - .
1 0.7 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.2 1 0.6 /
I 1 1 1 1 1
CuLUMN 457 10 28 90 727 1312
TOTAL 34.S 0.8 2.1 6.9 55.4 100.0 (CoNTINUED)
41 6-
66.7 I 0.5 0.6 I
0.3 I
19 73.1 2.6
26 I 2.0
I I I I I I 457 10 28 90 727 1312
2.1 6.9 55.4 100.0 COLUMN TOTAL
(CONTINUED) 34.8 • 0.8
-- Trrs -vue i7-oF SPS-S IS 10 HL USED FOR ACADtMIC PUR OnLY ------ 0 /31177- .--e-PAGF 3- -- 7, CORELATIOP r PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
FILE NOr,AMF (CREATION DATE = 08/31/77)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CROSS TABUL A TION OF ***************11 SERCO\ MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE HY SUCPAR # OF SUCESSFUL PAROLES
* * * * * * * * * * 1 c * * * * * 7: * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * e PAGE 3 0
SERCON
SUCPAR COUNT I
)41--Ir le n POW Pcr INoNe• FE MOST COL PCT I TOT PCT I 11 21 31 4! 5 I 1 I 1 - 1
01 01 01 17 I 0 1
ROW TOTAL
I.
1 Cirri T. 10 J
1 0.0 I I 0.0 I
18 I 4 I OTHER I 40.0 I
I 0.9 I I 0.3 I
1 0.0 I 0.1 I
0.0 I 0.1 I 1
Cr 1 ---0 - 0 I - 6 - ! 10
0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 60.0 1 0.8
0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.8 I
0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.5 I
0.0 I 0.0
0.0 I 0.0
-1 1 19 I 15 I
HOMOCIDE I 34.1 I 3.3
I 1.1 1
2C I 1 I KIDDNAPPING I 25.0 I
1 0.2
I 0.1 I
22 I 1 I CONTEMPT . I 100.0 I
I 0.2 I
0.1 I
0 1 0 I 3 I 26 1 44
0.0 1 0.0 1 6.8 I 59.1 I 3.4
0.0 I 0.0 I 3.3 I 3.6 I --Q0 • •• - 0.0 - I - I 2.0 I 1
0 I 0 I 1 1 2 I 4
0.0 I 0.0 I 25.0 1 50.0 I 0.3
0. 0 i 0.0 i 1.1 0..5 1
0.0 1 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.2 1 1 1
01 01 01 0 I • 0.0 I' -0.0 I 0.0
0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 I
1 • 0.1
0.0 0.0
li 0.0 0.0 0.0 I
DI
24 1 e 1 MISCHIEF I 33.3 1
I 0.4 I I 0.2 I I
25 I 5 I ARSON I 19.2 I
I 1.1 I
U I 0.0 I I 0.0 I
0.0 - • - I
0 0.0 I 0.0
0 0.0 0.0 I 0.0
2 7.7 2.2
PEFJUPY
FXToRTION
THIS VEllb0-N o r-ST s 5-1 S-1 o RE USED FOR ACADEMLC PUSSES oriCY
CORELATTu OF PREDICTIVF FACTORS - N.P.S. n8/31777-11, PA GE - -7-3
FILE MCNAME (CREATION DATE = 0/31/77) I
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CROSST ABULAT ION OF lc * * * * * * * * * * * r:.• * À * SERCOm. MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY SUCPAR a OF SUCESSFUL PAROLES
* *************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * pAci E 4 0
SFRCON
SUCPAR
COUNT I ROt,, PCT I No/VE FEW . . ...ftoSi- , ... M1..> _. . N / Ps ROW
COL PCT I TOTAL
TOT PCT I 1 I 2 I 31 41 5 I I I I I I 1
2t4 1 11 0 1 . 01 01 51 6 --UE-CLIGE1,!CE
COriSPIRICY
I -I-6.f 1 U.0 I U.0 I U.0 I M3- 5 I • I 0.2 I 0 .0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.7
0.1 I 0 .0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.4 I
2 7 I G I O • 1- " 1 I 0 I 1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.0 I 0.1
0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 1.1 I 0.0 I I Ù .0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 1 I I I i I
2ie, I 01 DI 0 I 0 I 1 I 1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I . 0.0 I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.1 1 1 0.0 I 0:0 - I - -- 0:0 -1 - .- 0.0 • I 0;1 - I I I I I 1 I
291 31 DI 0 I . 01 DI 3 1 100.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.2
. i G./ I u.0 i u.0 i u.0 I U.0 1
I 0.2 I. 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
I 1 I I I I COLUMN 457 10 28 90 727 1312 TOTAL ' 34.8 -'0.a - ---2.t- ---- 6.9 55;4 100.0
NuMEFR OF MISSING OBSERVATIONS = 546
- T-FrrsœViiON OF SPSS IS TO nE UbED FOR ACADEMIC PU SES ONLY F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
:ILE NONAME (CREATION DATE = 08f31/77) .
* * *g* * * * * * * * * * * * * CROSS TABULATION OF * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * S.ERCOr, MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY RELIG RELIGIOUS BACKGROUND
* * * * * * * * * * * A * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 10
RT- LIG
;ERCOM
COUNT I ROW PCT IHAPTIST CATHOLIC PROT. Or ANGLICAN NONE OTHER ROW
COL PCT I i
. . ....
TOTAL i 1
TOT PCT I 1 I 2 I 31 41 51 6 I i I I I I I I I ,
1 1 21 151 61 41 01 01 27 ; R-TPI I (.4 1 55.6 1 .ere.e I 14.b I U.0 I U.0 . I e.é
I 1.8 I 2.1 I 2.2 I 4.0 I 0.0 I 0.0* I
I 0.2 I 1.2 1 0.5 I 0.3 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
2 I 9 I 2 T 6 r - o7 1 1 1 51 I.A. ON FEMALE I 17.6 I 52.9 I 15.7 I 11.8 I 0.0 I. 2.0 I 4.2
I 8.3 I 3.8 1 2..9 I 6.1 I 0.0 I 7.7
I 0.7 1 2.2 1 0.7 I 0.5 I 0.0 I 0.1 I
-1 I 1. 1
31 01 81 21 01 - 0 1 01 10 I.A. ON MALE I 0.0 I 80.0 1 20.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 =-I 0.0 I 0.8
1 0.0 I 1.1 I 0.7 I 0.0 I ':.'0.0 1 0.0 I
r o.n I - 0:7--T---0-.2 --1 --- 0 -.0--I1-:,0.0 - I 0.0 I -- ____ _ . 1 1 I I 1 I
41 01 101 31 51 ' UT 01 18 SEXUAL - 0TH.7 I 0.0 I 55.6 I 16.7 I 27.8 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 1.5
I U.0 1 1.4 I 1.1 I 1 I , 0.u. 1 0.0 1
1 0.1) I 0.8 I 0.2 I 0.4 / ' 0.0 I 0.0 I .
I 1 I I I, • 1 I. 5 1 0 I 49 I 15 I 5 I - 0' I 0 I 69
ASSAULTS I 0.0 1 71.0--1-21.7-1 ---- 7:2-I- • --.0.0 I 0.0 I 5.6
1 0.0 I 6.9 I 5.4 I 5.1 I OçO I 0.0 I
1 0.0 I 4.0 I 1.2 I 0.4 1 0.0 I 0..0 I
1 T 1 I I r.. I 1 fp I 14 I 1U9 I 4U I el 1 4 1 U I Id(
ROBBERY 1 7.5 1 58.3 I 21.4 1 10.7 I 2.1 I 0.0 I 15.3 I 12.8 I 15.3 I 14.5 I 20.2 I 28.6 I 0.0 1 I 1.1 1 8.9 1 3..3 I 1.6 I 0.3 I 0.0 I I r- r ---- -- I. - . 1 I I
7 I 34 I 2 8 2 1 110 I 30 I 5 I 3 1 464 L P. ND E I 7.3 I 60.b I 23.7 I 6.5 I 1.1 I 0.6 I 37.9
I 31.2 1 39.5 I 39.9 I 30.3 I 35.7 I 23.1 I J. 2 .6 I 23.-0 I 470 1 2.4 1 U.4 1 U.2 I I I I I I I I
COLUMN 1n r) 714 276 99 14 13 1225
TOTAL 8.9 58.3 22.5 8.1 1.1 1.1 100.0 CONTINUFD)
. ..... ____ ....._. _ _ ...._ ...........
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WEAP ON S
----0"8/31/77- -4, --- TPTS-Villr OF SP-S'S IS- 10 hft UbED FOK ALADEMIL PUerS ONLY C o JRELATI IF PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
FILE No1ANE (CREATION DATE = (1 8/31/77)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CR OSS T ABULA T ION 0 F * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * • SERCOW MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY RELIG RELIGIOuS BACKGROUND
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *•* * * * * * * * * PAGE 3
RELIG COUNT I
ROW PCT IbAPTIST CATHOLIC PROT. 4T ANGLICAN NONE OTHER ROW COL PCT I. TOTAL
TOT PCT I 1 I 21 31 41 51 61 SERCON I I I I I I I
171 01 1 I 0 1 01 01 01 1 LUNI. 10 J.D. 1 0.0 1 lou.o 1 , u.0 1 u.0 1 0.0 1 u.a- 1 u.1
1 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0« I
I 0.0 1 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
-I I I I I I I 18 I 0 I - 9' ' I - • « - a •", I ---- - -- 0 - - I' - 0 I 0 I 9
OTHER I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.7
I 0.0 I 1.3 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
1 0.0 I 0.7 I . 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
1 1 1 i 1 -1r 1
19 1 61 161 151 51 0 I . 01 42 HOMOCIDE I 14.3 I 38.1 I 35.7 I 11.9 I 0.0 I - 0.0 I 3.4
I 5.5 I 2.2 I 5.4 I 5.1 I 0.0. / 0.0 I
I 0.5 1 1.3 I - 1,2 -- I - - 0.4 I - 0.0 I 0.0 I
I I I I I I . I 20 I 0 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I - . 0 I 4
KIDDNAPPING I 0.0 I 25.0 1 25.0 I 25.0 I 25.0 I 0.0 I 0.3
1 0.0 1 0.1 1 0.4 1 1.0 1 7.1 1 070--1
1 0.0 1 0.1 1 0.1 I 0.1 I 0.1 I 0.0 I
I I I I I I I 22 I 01 01 01 1 I 01 • 01 1
CONTEMPT I 0.0 I 0.0 «I - - Cr."0 --I -t00-.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.1
I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 1.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
I • 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.1 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
I I . r I 1 1 I e 4 J. 1 1 4 I. 0 1 U 1 U 1 0-----I
I 20 .0 I 80.0 I OA I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.4
I 0.9 I 0.6 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I
I 0.1 1 0.3 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1
I I I ' - 1 I I I
251 31 191 1 I 1 I 0 - I 11 25
I 1 .2.0 I 76.0 I 4.0 I 4.0 I 0.0 I 4.0 I 2.0
I 2.8 I 2.7 I 0.4 I 1.0 I 0.0 I 7,7 I
-----1--(172--1-1 .b 1 0.1 1 0.1 1 0.0 1 0.1 1
MISCHIEF
ARSON
1
COLUMN 109 714 276 99 14 13 1225
TOTAL 8.9 58.3 22.5 8.1 1.1 1.1 100.0 (CONTINUED)
PAGE 4 IS TO PE USED FOR ACADEMIC PURPO CORELATIO F PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
08[31/7( --
II›
vEtio7F-O-F-S-P-Ss SES ONLY CORELATIOIMMF PREDICTIVE FACTORS - N.P.S.
FILE NONAME (CREATION DATE = 0i,/31/77)
****************** cRoSsTABuLATION OF k***************; SERCON MOST SERIOUS OFFENCE BY RELIG RELIGIOUS BACKGROUND * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * PAGE 401
RFLIG couNT I
ROW PCT IDAPTIST CATHOLIC PROT. oT ANGLICAN NONE oTHER Row
coueCT 1 TOTAL
ToT ecT 1 1 1 21 31 41 51 61 SERCON I 1 I I I I I
261 01 2 1 41 01 01 0I 6 NEGLIGENCE I 0.0 I 5. 5 I ert).( 1 U.0 I U.0 1 U.0 I U.5
1 0.0 I 0.3 I ' 1.4 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0.. I I 0.0 I 0.2 I 0.3 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 r 1 1 I 1 1 1
271 01 -" 1* - T"----- 0- I--0 - I - ' 01 01 1 coNsPiRicy 1 0.0 1 100.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.1
1 . 0.0 I 0.1 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 1 . 0.0 1 0.1 I 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1
-1 1 1 1 1 ---7-1 1 28 I 11 01 01 01 01 01 .1
pERJuRy 1 100.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I. 0.1 1 0.9 1 0.0 1 0.0 I 0.0 1 - 0.0 1 0.0 1 1 0.1 1 - -- (Y.:CY-1-0;0 - - r - - 0;0 - '1. 0.0 1 0.0 1
. 1 1 1 1 1. 1 1 .
291 01 31 01 01 01. 01 3
EXTORTICN I 0.0 I 100.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 I 0.0 1 0.2 1 u.0 1 0.4 1 u.0 1 u.0 1 u.0 1 070 1 I 0.0 1 0.2 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 I 1 1 1 1 . 1 1
coLumN 109 714 276 99 14 13 1225 TOTAL 8.9 - - 98:3"- --22.5• -----8- :1 - "- - ',1 0 1.1 100.0
NUMPER OF MISSING OBSERVATIONS = 633
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APPENDIX
Burgess, E.W., 1928. "Factors Determining Success or Failure on Parole" in The Workings of the Indeterminate - Sentence Law and the Parole System in Illinois, by Bruce, Harno, Burgess, and Landesco, Illinois State Board of Parole, Springfield, Ill. Factors (for 3,000 men) making for parole success or failure (high failure for fraud, low for murder or manslaughter and for those with good work record.)
Warner, S.B., 1923. "Factors Determining Parole from the Massachusetts Reformatory" 14 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, pp. 172-207. Comparison of factors considered important by Board of Parole with factors which differentiated between violators and non-violators.
Glueck, S. and E.T. Glueck, 1930. 500 Criminal Careers, Knopf., New York. 500 Criminal Careers, Five year follow up; 73% interviewed. Factors weighted (most important was work habits), prognostic tables constructed.
1937, Later Criminal Careers. The Commonwealth Fund. Yew York. Later Criminal Careers success factors similar to above, but mental condition enters importantly - nbenign process of maturation" is most important.
1943, Criminal Careers in Retrospect. The Commonwealth Fund, New York. Criminal Careers in Retrospect (now 15 years beyond sentence expiry).
1959, Predicting Deliquency and Crime, Harvard Press, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 153-187.
Glueck, S. and E.T. Glueck, 1934. One Thousand Juvenile Delinquents, Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge, Mass.
1940. Juvenile Delinquents Grown Up. The Commonwealth Fund.
1934. Five Hundred Delinquent Women. Knopf. New York.
1945. After-Conduct of Discharged Offenders, Macmillan Co. London.
1950. Unraveling juvenile Delinquengy, The Commonwealth Fund, New York.
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Vold, G.B. 1931 "Prediction Methods and Parole; The Sociological Press, Hanover, N.H. Minneapolis, I1Vepool. Prediction Methods and Parole Mean Squares. 1Previaia:s<work record is highest of 44 factors; factorewëig,hel,ected
4/
25 highest factors gave greatest differeptieio ‘,,,
Tibbitts, C. 1931, "Success and Failu»e in Pa•e can be . pi.edicted." 22 Journal of Criminal Law aneÇriminoloy„t) ,May, i931. -y I 1932 "The Reliability of Factors .">tiedetfeiffif,eredictiAng
Success . or Failure on Parole, 22 Journcrimïnal ---,-.M.tr.--.4---- Law and Criminolom, March, 1932.
U. S. Dept. of Justice, 1939, "Attorney-General's Survey of Release Procedures, Vol. IV: Parole" Washington, D.C. "Survey of Release Procedures". Analysis of factors associated with parole selection and outcome. (no prediction tables).
Ohlin, L.E. 1951, Selection For Parole, Russell Sage Foundation, New York.
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