ARC Modeling Activities - Atlanta Regional Commission...2019/12/06 · – Overall regional total...
Transcript of ARC Modeling Activities - Atlanta Regional Commission...2019/12/06 · – Overall regional total...
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December 6, 2019
ARC Modeling Activities(Past, Present & Future)
Model User Group
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PAST
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Background
• ARC Activity-Based Model – Current Distribution
– 20-County model
– 20-County Population Synthesizer with Microsoft SQL
– Model calibration/validation for 2015
• GDOT traffic counts (daily/hourly)
• I-85 HOT lane transaction data
• Speed data from various sources
• Re-expansion of HHTS/TOBS to 2015
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Background
• ARC Modeling Activities as of 2019 Q1
– Official forecasts
• TARP (2016) → 20-county model
– RTP forecasts
– Conformity determination
• TIP Amendment runs → 20-county model
– The latest version: #7 (2019)
– Forecasting years: 2020, 2030 and 2040
– “Special” studies
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PRESENT
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Background
• ABM Peer Review in 2017
– Long-term/short-term recommendations
• Population Synthesizer Webinar (December 2017)
– MySQL version with 21 Counties
– Full contents covered
– The program shared
– MS-SQL version of PopSyn: Retired
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Peer Review Addressed Recommendations
• Lower value-of-time for passenger cars
• Connection between PopSyn-generated workers and ARC
employment forecasts
• Incorporation of school enrollment data
• Sensitivity testing
• Work-from-Home model
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Major Model Updates To Date
• Peer Review Short-term Recommendations
• 21 Counties
• External Model Update
• Model Sensitivity Testing
• Updated Socioeconomic Data (“Series 16”)
• Online Documentation: Finalize conversion to online format in GitHub
• Model Enhancement and Validation
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Expanded Modeling Area (so far)
• 21 Counties
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External Model Update
• External model components
– Work vs. Non-Work IE/EI shares
– IE/EI vs. EE shares
– EE desire lines
– Trip generation
– Trip distribution
– Time of day
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
IE Work IE Non-Work EE Total
External Passenger Cars by Trip Type
AirSage Updated
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External Model Update (cont’d)
• Trip distribution results substantially improved when compared
to observed data
Purpose Facility Observed ModelPercent
Difference
Coincidence
Ratio
Work Interstate 41.76 42.49 2% 0.86
WorkNon-
Interstate39.68 40.88 3% 0.91
Non-Work Interstate 36.54 36.79 1% 0.83
Non-WorkNon-
Interstate36.37 36.74 1% 0.91
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Population Synthesizer
• Population Synthesizer– Connection between PopSyn
workers and ARC employment forecasts
– Modified the population / household control priorities to improve future population synthesis• Ensure that number of synthesized
households match control totals for all TAZs
• Ensure that total number of workers is 0.95 of the total employment forecast
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School Data
• Augment private school data for school location choice– ARC staff prepared private
school enrollment data at TAZ level
– Private school enrollment is approximately 7% of total enrollment (77,000 students)
– Helps with the prediction of school trip destinations
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Model Sensitivity Testing
• Including the Base
Model, 10 scenarios
were analyzed
Highway Capacity
• ½ capacity
• 2x capacity
Transit Fares
• No fares
• ½ fares
• 2x base fares
Fuel Costs
• ½ fuel costs
• 2x fuel costs
Transit In-Vehicle Time
• 0.95x IVT
• 1.05x IVT
Base Model
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Work-from-Home Choice
• Add a sub-model to predict whether the usual workplace location is at home– Working home occasionally (i.e., tele-
commuting) is captured in the Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern model
– When “home” is the work location, no commute trip is generated
– Approximately 6% of workers report that home is their usual workplace (ACS 2015)
Usual Workplace
Choice
Work from Home
Work Out of Home
TAZ 2TAZ 1
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Modified CT-RAMP Process
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Changes in Main Script
• New internal and external zone specifications
• New value of time (autos)
• Updated vehicle operating costs (autos & trucks)
• Updated fuel costs (autos & trucks)
• Convergence criterion in highway assignment (relative
gap = 0.0001)
• A new module for performance measures in addition to
traditional aggregate summary
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EA(XCPU
EA)
AM(XCPUAM)
MD(XCPUMD)
PM(XCPUPM)
EV(XCPU
EV)
DistributeMultistep (XCPU)
DistributeIntrastep
EA(XCPU)
AM(XCPU)
MD(XCPU)
PM(XCPU)
EV(XCPU)
DistributeIntrastep
MultiThread (XCPU)
Changes in Main Script (Cont’d)Parallel Assignments (Cube 6.4.3) Sequential Assignments (Cube 6.4.5)
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Model Enhancement and Validation
• Good matches to daily counts
Volume Group Observations RMSE %RMSE Total Volume Total CountsVol / Cnt
Ratio< 2500 3,283 1,421 117.0% 4,979,000 3,981,000 1.25
2500 - 4999 2,109 2,105 57.0% 7,967,000 7,736,000 1.03
5000 - 9999 2,681 3,161 44.0% 18,710,000 19,120,000 0.98
10000 - 24999 2,300 4,891 32.0% 31,083,000 35,163,000 0.88
25000 - 49999 365 7,918 23.0% 11,715,000 12,389,000 0.95
50000 - 74999 172 10,202 16.0% 10,421,000 10,913,000 0.95
75000 - 99999 103 10,373 12.0% 8,506,000 8,793,000 0.97
>= 100000 104 10,697 9.0% 12,705,000 12,806,000 0.99
Total 11,117 3,812 38.0% 106,086,000 110,901,000 0.96
ARC 2015 HIGHWAY VALIDATION SUMMARIES
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Model Enhancement and Validation
• VMT - good overall match for minor arterial and above
FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION
GDOT 2015
(AWDT)MODEL 2015
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE
Inters tate 57,399,000 54,422,000 -5.2%
Principa l Arteria l 27,417,000 26,377,000 -3.8%
Minor Arteria l 34,652,000 34,277,000 -1.1%
Col lector 12,960,000 11,242,000 -13.3%
Local 48,488,000 11,341,000 -76.6%
Tota l 180,916,000 137,659,000 -23.9%
Arteria l and Above 119,468,000 115,076,000 -3.7%
Col lector and Above 132,428,000 126,318,000 -4.6%
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Model Enhancement and Validation
• Transit assignment
– Improvements in MARTA rail
– Better match with MARTA buses
and GRTA express buses
– Improvements in CCT and GCT
– Overall regional total very close
Operator / Mode Observed Modeled Difference % Difference
MARTA Rail 230,940 247,040 16,100 7%
MARTA Bus 201,370 184,100 -17,270 -9%
GRTA 6,370 5,440 -930 -15%
CCT 11,660 15,960 4,300 37%
GCT 6,430 7,900 1,470 23%
HAT 570 1,530 960 168%
CATS 120 130 10 8%
Shuttles 46,300 41,090 -5,210 -11%
Total 503,760 503,190 -570 0%
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Model Enhancement and Validation• MARTA rail – good overall match
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Model Enhancement and Validation• MARTA buses – better R-squared
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Online Documentation
• GitHub platform
• HTML version
– Specifications
– User Guide
– Calibration
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FUTURE(Potential Implementation)
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Major Research Activities to Date
• Emerging technology
– TNC (Uber, Lyft, etc.)
– Automated Vehicle
• Segmented value-of-time (VOTs)
• ActivitySim assessment and preliminary conversion
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Emerging Technology (AV)
• Focus: market penetration level, empty VMT
• Segmentation between AV and Non-AV adopters
– Car ownership model
– Dictates trips by AV adopters and by shared AVs
• Mode choice
– Additional modes: Shared AVs and TNCs
• AV routing and ZOV trips
– AV adopters and Shared AVs (TNCs)
– Challenging optimization problem with constraints
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Emerging Technology (AV)
• Separation between CVs
and AVs from COM
• Traffic assignment of AVs
as a separate user class
– Higher capacity and
specific VDFs for AVs
• Partial penetration
effects
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Emerging Technology (TNC)
• Addition of a TNC mode to the model
– Mode choice, accessibility
• Chicago TNC data
– Covers TNC trips that either begin or end in the city limits
– Weekdays (Mon-Thur) vs. Weekends (Fri-Sun)
• Cost/mile split by hour and by geographic area
– Peak hours, CBD, airport
• Targets for TNC shares
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VOT Segmentation
• Segmentation
• Segment generalized costs for highway assignment
• “Many more” classes in highway assignment
Income Group Income VOT
Low < $20k 5.60$
Medium low $20k to $50k 10.11$
Medium high $50k to $100k 19.16$
High > $100k 40.56$
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ActivitySim
• Transition from the Java-based CT-RAMP platform
• Anaconda Conda platform
– Python data science packages
– NumPy, Pandas, and potential visualization packages
(Matplotlib, Seaborn)
• Potential benefits
– Efficiency, Stability, Compatibility, Expandability, Maintenance
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Model Release
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Previously Released (FG mtg, 6/14/19)
• “DRAFT” 2015 Model
– A draft version of 2015 socioeconomic data
– Informative purpose
– NOT to be used for projects
• Model Specifications Report
• Download
– http://abmfiles.atlantaregional.com/
– Base15FG_DRAFT.zip
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Final Release
• Final version of the model to be released “soon”
– TARP2020 process
– January-February 2020
– Forecasting years: 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 & 2050
• Online Documentation
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Contact
Kyeil Kim
Atlanta Regional Commission
(470) 378-1567