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Transcript of ArborGen
ArborGen Confidential
Silviculture and Genetic Effects on Stand Yield and Value
ArborGen Confidential 2
Presentation Objectives:
Review changes in genetics that are occurring
Review changes in silviculture that are occurring
Discuss what drives stand yield and stand value
Results of how good silviculture and genetics are increasing stand yield and value
Look at an example of new opportunities for managing to increase stand value
ArborGen Confidential 3
Changing genetics!
ArborGen Confidential 4
Select Breed
Test
Select
Breed
TestSelect
Breed
Test
First Generation Open-Pollinated (OP) Orchard
1963-1980
Second Gen Orchard
1981-2011
Third Cycle Orchard
2008-
Where we have been:
•First selections for testing made in 1950’s
•It takes about 15 years to breed, test and bring an Orchard into full production
ArborGen Confidential 5
.
Avg. OP
Elite OP
Elite OP/ Insight
MCP
MCP / Insight
Early Varietals
Varietals / Insight
Value-$/AcFuture/ Biotechnology
+
Increased Genetic Certainty
ArborGen S.E. USA pine products
OP
MCP
Varieties
ArborGen Confidential 6
Average Gain for 2009 Nursery Crop
• 2.0-Generation: 18.5%• 2.0-Select 24.7%
• 3rd-Cycle: 34.6%
• Elite: 38.3%
• MCP: 40.0%
Volume Gain
Vol Gain Index
Loblolly 2.0 22.9 81.5
Loblolly 2.0S 28.8 88.0
Loblolly 2.5 33.9 110.4
Loblolly 3C 43.9 113.4
Loblolly Elite 40.4 117.6
Loblolly MCP 56.0 125.9
Average Gain for 2010 Nursery Crop
ArborGen Confidential 7
Silvicultural Changes:
Plant lower density stands
Fall Planting with enhanced genetic stock
Flex Stand Deployment systems—based on market expectations
Resource focusing treatments---Individual tree or row treatments
Directed protection treatments
ArborGen Confidential 8
Review of what drives stand yield and stand value:
ArborGen Confidential 9
Achieved SI= Base Site Index + Genetic Improvements + Management Intensity•Soil
•Climate
•Atmosphere
•CO2
•Ozone
•VPD
•Species
•Level of TI
•Site resource management
•Resource inputs
ArborGen Confidential 10
Achieved Stand Value= Achieved SI + Value Management Intensity
•Planting less tpa
•Use enhanced genetics to increase % ST and stem quality
•Marking before thinning
•Pruning
•Apply pole production silv.
•Manage for export logs
•Use new silvcultural deployment systems
ArborGen Confidential 11
Pigeon Pond Establishment:
-Site: Berkeley County, SC—Lower Coastal Plains
-Soils: Moderately Well Drained-Goldsboro
-Previous Rotation Site Index-base age 25 years : Low 70’s
-Planted at 605 tpa in 1998
-Two years weed control
-Systematic thin (remove every other row-no selection) =12’ x 12’ at age 5 303tpa
-N&P fert at age-5
-Snow damage about age-6
-Fourth row operational thin to a target of 150 tpa or remove defective trees — Age 13
-Performance was evaluated at age-12 because all heights and dbh measured at this age
Example of Genetics and silviculture impacts on stand yield and value
ArborGen Confidential 12
Before Thin Performance----Age 12
ArborGen Confidential 13
Exhibited Site Index of Elite OP and MCP Stands
87.3
91.590.7
94.3
89.1
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
AG175 AG373 AG769 AGM22 AGM29
Sit
e In
dex
•Strong performance by Elite OP families and MCP crosses: Exhibited SI ranges from 87 to 94 feet
•Not all Elite OP are the same and not all MCP are the same
•AGM29 was the first MCP cross produced by MWV and is no longer in commercial production
ArborGen Confidential 14
1998 Pigeon Pond - Sawlog Potential
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AGM-22 AG-769 AGM-29 AG-175 AG-373
% o
f T
rees
None Pulp Some Good Best
Green and light blue sections are sawtimber potential trees:
80% ST 66% ST 83% ST 58% ST 53% ST
•MCP % ST potential trees range from 80-83%
•Elite OP % ST potential trees range from 53% to 66%
ArborGen Confidential 15
Age-12 Operational fourth row thinning results
ArborGen Confidential 16
Gtons/acre harvested at age-12
45.7
54.4
45.5
50.3 50.6
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
AG175 AG373 AG769 AGM22 AGM29
Gto
ns/
acre
•Gtons/ac harvested ranged from 45 Gtons/ac to 54 Gtons/ac
•At $10/Gton thinning cash flow would range from $450-$544/acre
•At $15/Gton thinning cash flow would range from $683-$816/acre
1st thin yields:
ArborGen Confidential 17
Basal Area/Acre after 4th-row thin
56.8448.33
61.71
72.5863.87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
AG175 AG373 AG769 AGM22 AGM29
Bas
al A
rea
(Sq
.Ft/
Ac)
•The amount of basal area left after thinning was dependent on the % ST potential trees that were present before thinning
•Stands with lower BA will have lower growth potential in the future
Fourth Row Thin—Remove all low quality trees
ArborGen Confidential 18
Percent Sawtimber Quality Trees after 4th-row thin
58.1%52.8%
66.1%
80.0% 82.6%71.2%
79.5% 81.5%89.8% 93.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
AG175 AG373 AG769 AGM22 AGM29
Per
cen
t S
awti
mb
er Q
ual
ity
Ste
ms/
Acr
e
•4th-row thinning of Elite OP stands left: 71-82% ST potential trees & 107-131 tpa
•4th row thinning of MCP stands left: 90-93% ST potential trees & 134-139 tpa
•The potential value of the stands going forward are not the same
Genetic effects on the after-thin residual stand
ArborGen Confidential 19
Thinned OP AG373, 107 tpa, 48 BA, 80%ST
ArborGen Confidential 20
Thinned AG 769 , 131tpa, 62BA, 82% ST
ArborGen Confidential 21MCP AGM22 139 tpa, 73BA, 90% ST
ArborGen Confidential 22
Current Stand Value and Future Value
ArborGen Confidential 23
Current Stand Value:
If landowners or investors use current genetics and good silviculture can they grow stands that have significant standing value at age-12?
Genetics Age-12 Total Tons/Acre
Value at $12/Gton
AG-175 81.7 $980.00
AG-373 87.2 $1046.00
AG-769 86.9 $1043.00
AGM29 92.4 $1109.00
AGM22 101.9 $1222.00
ArborGen Confidential 24
Clearcut revenues by genetics
2608 26033110
3880
3332
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
AG175 AG373 AG769 AGM22 AGM29
Do
llar
s/A
cre
Summary:
-CC value varied between elite OP families AG175, AG373 & AG769 stands
-There is variation in the value of MCP-(AGM29 is no longer a commercial MCP cross)
Future Stand Value
•Value of stand when CC at age 23. ST tonnage adjusted based on percent sawtimber trees, Assumed prices were $30.00 for ST, $15.00 for CNS and $10.00 for pulp
ArborGen Confidential 25
Dick West 13 year old Full-Sib Stand
Dick West Stand Treatment History
• Completed harvest of previous stand in 1998
• Site Preparation (1998)
• Sheared, chopped and bedded in August• Chemical Site Prep. (Accord & Oust) October• Hand planted Nov. (7x 12’ spacing, 520 tpa)• Rooted Cutting clones & OP seedling checks
• Herbaceous weed control in Spring of 1999
Example: Stand Value Management Considerations
ArborGen Confidential 26
Stand Performance @ 8 yr
• Exhibited Site Index • Full-Sib AE - 91.4 feet• AG373 - 91.8 feet
ArborGen Confidential 27
Genetics %Pole Trees
%ST Trees Predicted Clearcut Gtons/ac @ Age 25
OP Elite AG 373 5% 46% 228 Gtons/ac Total
128 Gtons/ac ST
(Extract 11 Gtons/ac Poles)
(@ $50/Gton=$550/ac)
Full-Sib Cross AD 4% 50%
Full-Sib Cross AE 35% 79% 228 Gtons/ac Total
173 Gtons/ac ST
(Extract 80 Gtons/ac Poles)
(@ $50/Gton=$4000/ac)
Example: Increasing value with new genetics—pole silviculture
ArborGen Confidential 28
Summary
Many new genetic options are available that can lead to much improved stand value
The greater “genetic certainty” has opened up a wide range of silvicultural options that can reduce input cost, produce more wood and give greater market flexibility
Even in very depressed market conditions, timber investments can be very attractive if the best genetics and silviculture are applied correctly.