Arapogianni Athanasia – research officer European Wind Energy
Transcript of Arapogianni Athanasia – research officer European Wind Energy
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Wind in our SailsThe coming of Europe’s offshore wind energy industryArapogianni Athanasia – research officerEuropean Wind Energy Association Trondheim, 19.01.2012
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Outline
1. Offshore wind industry – End of 2011 2. Offshore wind industry in 2020 and 20303. Supply chain
a) Wind turbinesb) Substructuresc) Grid connectiond) Vesselse) Ports
4. Conclusions
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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Annual 0 2 5 17 0 3 0 4 51 170 259 90 90 93 318 373 584 883 866Cumulative 5 7 12 29 29 32 32 36 86 256 515 605 695 787 1 106 1 479 2 063 2 946 3 813
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(MW
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Annual 2011 capacity :866.35 MWCumulative capacity (end 2011): 3,813 MW
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United Kingdom
52%(458 MW)
Denmark 23%
(207 MW)
Belgium 19%(165 MW)
Germany 6%(50 MW)
Finland 0%(2.3 MW)
Share of new installed capacityin Europe in 2011
UK; 2 094 ; 55 %
Denmark; 857 ; 23 %
Netherlands; 247 ; 6 %
Germany; 200 ; 5 %
Belgium; 195 ; 5 %
Sweden; 164 ; 4 %
Finland; 26 ; 1 % Ireland; 25 ; 1 %
Norway; 2,3; 0 %
Portugal; 2 ; 0 %
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Wind turbine manufacturers’ share in installations
Siemens; 2012; 53 %
Vestas; 1371; 36 %
Repower; 182; 5 %
BARD; 85; 2 %
WinWind; 54; 1 % GE; 36; 1 % Areva; 30; 1 %
Other; 43; 1 %
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Substructure types
Monopile; 1 021 ; 75 %
Gravity Based Foundation; 286 ; 21 %
Jacket; 30 ; 2 %
Tripile; 23 ; 2 %
Floating; 3 ; 0 %
N/A; 6 ; 0 %
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2011 annual installation of offshore wind projects
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60
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Average water depth (m)
UK Germany Portugal
Denmark Belgium
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Total offshore wind market outlook
Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2011• Total installed capacity of
around 4,000 MW• Meeting 0.4% of total EU
electricity demand• Annual installations of
1,000 MW• Avoiding 9.9 Mt of CO2
annually• Total electricity production
of 14.4 TWh• Annual investments in
wind turbines of €2.8 billion.
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Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2011
• Total installed capacity of 3,813 MW• Meeting 0.4% of total EU electricity demand• Annual installations of 866.35 MW• Avoiding 9.9 Mt of CO2 annually• Total electricity production of 14.4 TWh• Annual investments in wind turbines of €2.8 billion.
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Outline
1. Offshore wind industry – End of 2011 2. Offshore wind industry in 2020 and 20303. Supply chain
a) Wind turbinesb) Substructuresc) Grid connectiond) Vesselse) Ports
4. Conclusions
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0
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Offshore wind to 2020
(MW)
EWEA
NREAP’s
4 5 8 11 14 17 22 27 33 40
4 6 9 12 16 20 26 31 37 43
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Offshore wind energy marketin the EU in 2020
• Total installed capacity of 40,000 MW• Meeting 4.2% of total EU electricity demand• Annual installations of 6,900 MW• Avoiding 102 Mt of CO2 annually• Total electricity production of 148 TWh• Annual investments in offshore wind turbines of €10.4
billion• Cumulative investments in offshore wind turbines of
€65.9 billion in the period 2011 - 2020.
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2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Annual 7,807 8,457 9,057 9,607 10,507 11,4575 12,35 12,95 13,2 13,69Cumulative 47,70 56,20 65,50 75,60 86,50 98,10 110,40 123,20 136,40 150,00
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Offshore wind energy marketin the EU in 2030
• Total installed capacity of 150,000 MW• Annual installations of 13,700 MW• Total electricity production of 562 TWh• Meeting 13.9% of total EU electricity demand• Avoiding 315 Mt of CO2 in 2030• Annual investments in offshore wind turbines of
€17 billion in 2030• Cumulative investments of €145.2 billion from
2021 to 2030
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0
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
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Planned Consented Under construction
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Outline
1. Offshore wind industry – End of 2011 2. Offshore wind industry in 2020 and 20303. Supply chain
a) Wind turbinesb) Substructuresc) Grid connectiond) Vesselse) Ports
4. Conclusions
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An offshore wind supply chain
Wind turbineManufacturers
Structuralfabricators
Electricalsuppliers
Marinecontractors
Cablesuppliers
Cableinstallers
EPCIcontractors
Portoperators
Exampleincumbents
Siemens,Vestas,REpower,Areva
SIF,Smulders,Bladt, EEW,Weserwind,BiFAB, Aker
ABB,SiemensEnergy,Alstom Grid
A2Sea,MPI, SHL,Geosea
Nexans,Prysmian,ABB NKT,Scanrope
Technip,CT Offshore,GlobalMarine,Visser&Smit
Fluor,Van Oord,ABJV, MTHojgaard,DEME
Various
Examplenewentrants
BARD, GE,Doosan,Gamesa,Alstom,Nordex,Mitsubishi
H&W,TAG, Tata,Hereema,ZPMC,Shinan,Fabricom
C&G Fred Olsen,Beluga,Inwind,GOAH,Sea Jacks
DRAKA,JDR
Beluga Hochtief,Saipem,Technip,Subsea7
Various
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Legend:Ticks and crosses representlikelihood of positioningat relevant Level in thecontractual hierarchy:
Likely Possible Unlikely
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Supply and demand for offshore wind turbine technology in Europe
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dem
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pply
Cap
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(MW
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Demand (EWEA) Total (pessimistic) Total (central) 1350 Total (optimistic) Firm capacity
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Wind turbines’ trends
< 5MW, 28 %
European , 47%
Chinese, 32%
Japanese, 5%
Korean, 8%US, 8%
Israel; 0%
> 5MW, 72%
• Development of wind turbines especially for offshore wind • Improving reliability and lowering down the cost of energy
Announced new models
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Outline
1. Offshore wind industry – End of 2011 2. Offshore wind industry in 2020 and 20303. Supply chain
a) Wind turbinesb) Substructuresc) Grid connectiond) Vesselse) Ports
4. Conclusions
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Historic offshore wind turbinefoundation market share (by year)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Monopile Gravity Based Structure Space-Frame
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Outline
1. Offshore wind industry – End of 2011 2. Offshore wind industry in 2020 and 20303. Supply chain
a) Wind turbinesb) Substructuresc) Grid connectiond) Vesselse) Ports
4. Conclusions
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Analysis of supply and demand for HV subsea cables
1000
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dem
and
/ Su
pply
Cap
acity
(MW
)Demand
- Limited amount of suppliers for HV subsea cables - Long lead times for new capacity
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Outline
1. Offshore wind industry – End of 2011 2. Offshore wind industry in 2020 and 20303. Supply chain
a) Wind turbinesb) Substructuresc) Grid connectiond) Vesselse) Ports
4. Conclusions
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Projected offshore installation vessel supply and demand (vessels per annum)
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mai
n in
stal
latio
n ve
ssel
s (o
ffsh
ore
win
d) Demand -Repair
Demand -Foundations
Demand -Turbines
Supply - firmcapacity
Supply - LowCase
Supply - MidCase
Supply - HighCase
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Outline
1. Offshore wind industry – End of 2011 2. Offshore wind industry in 2020 and 20303. Supply chain
a) Wind turbinesb) Substructuresc) Grid connectiond) Vesselse) Ports
4. Conclusions
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Example of European ports for offshore wind construction
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Supply chain – Wind in our Sails – More details
• Supply chain is dynamic and responding to challenges through investments in innovation:
• Turbines• Substructures• Electrical infrastructure• Vessels• Ports
www.ewea.org Publications Reports
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Conclusions• The European Union leads the world in offshore wind
power with almost 4,000MW already installed
• This major industrial development will bring a significant number of jobs and create development opportunities for European companies
• However, there are still challenges ahead and support is needed:• Favorable national framework conditions: NREAPs,
licensing and permitting procedures, maritime spatial planning, reinforcement of onshore networks
• Support from the EU: stable post-2020 legislative framework, offshore grid
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Thank you