SIMULASI EKOSISTEM AKUATIK Aquatic Ecosystem Simulation Modeling
Aquatic Ecosystem Health in Shenandoah National …...Aquatic Ecosystem Health in Shenandoah...
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Aquatic Ecosystem Health in Shenandoah National Park - Benthic Macroinvertebrate Monitoring Results
(1990-present)
John E.B. Wofford1
Craig D. Snyder2
1National Park Service, Shenandoah National Park2US Geological Survey, Leetown Science Center
Acknowledgements – going back, way back
• David Demarest (NPS), Reese Voshell and Steve Hiner (VA Tech)
• SWAS ( Rick Webb, Jack Cosby, Jim Galloway)
• USGS (Karen Rice, John Jastram, Than Hitt)
• Lots, and lots, and lots of field techs
2
Monitoring History
• National Park Service Vital Signs Program
• Water quality (1979 – present)• Fish (1982-present for brook trout, 1996
– present for all fish species)• Macroinvertebrates (1984 – present)
Explanation
Shenandoah National Park Boundary
SWAS Monitoring StationsSHEN Monitoring Stations
Siliciclastic BedrockGranitic BedrockBasaltic Bedrock
From Jastram et al (2013)
Project Initiation (2010)
• Long term trends in biota had not been formally assessed and a holistic review of water resource data was needed
Jastram et al (2013)
Water QualitySummary
• Geology is a major spatial driver of water quality problems (i.e. acidification) with smaller, high elevation siliciclastic basins most impacted.
• Temporal trends indicate continued degradation and lack of recovery in poorly buffered systems, some improvement in other watersheds
• Almost all water temperature measures show increasing trend (over last decade median +0.3° C /year)
Benthic Macroinvertebrate Monitoring
• Richness• EPT richness• % EPT • % Ephemeroptera• Hydropsychidae:T%• Leuctra:P%• %2 Dominant Taxa
• Simpson D• Pollution tolerance value (PTV)• % Intolerant• % Scrapers• % Shredders• % Haptobenthos• VA Stream Condition Index (SCI)
Benthic Macroinvertebrate Metrics
Some go up…and some go down...and some go all around…
Spatial and Temporal Analysis
• Principle Component Analysis used to reduce number of environmental variables and general Iinear modeling used to assess geology and watershed area and interaction on measures
• For temporal trends• Simple linear regression
Spatial Results
Geology
-was a very strong predictor, significant with 12 metrics and explaining up to 64% of variation in some metrics
SiliciclasticGranitic Basaltic
SCI
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9 A C B
Buffering capacity
Rich
ness
10
20
30
40
50
60
EPT-
r
A B B
Sim
pson
D
0. 6
0. 7
0. 8
0. 9
1. 0
DO
M2
0. 6
A C B
E%
0
15
30
45
60 A B B
EPT-
r
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0 A B B
Leuctra stoneflies
Acidification –highly tolerant
Buffering capacity
B B AA B B
SiliciclasticGranitic Basaltic
EPT%
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
W ith L e u c t r aW ithout L e u c t r a
BA
B B AB
Copyright © 2012 Stephen Luk
Temperature increase–highly sensitive
Most pollution—highly sensitive
50 100 500 2000
SC
I
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
W atershed Area (ha)
Watershed Area
7 metrics were significantly influenced by watershed size
• Richness + EPT richness• PTV• %Intolerant• SCI• %Haptobenthos• % Shredder
Spatial Results
7 metric trends showed significant parkwide trends at some time scale
Richness
20 14 10 5-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2 0.812 0.068 0.000 0.000
Metric• Richness• EPT richness • Simpson D• Dominant 2• % Leuctra• %Ephemeroptera• %Haptobenthos
Stream Health Declining Declining Declining/Neutral Declining/Neutral Indeterminate Indeterminate Indeterminate
Benthic Macroinvertebrate Trends
Time period of analysis
EPT%
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.020.056 0.486 0.114
R2 = 0.289
7 metric trends were dependent upon geologic class
In general, showed stream health stream health declines in poorly buffered systems and improvements or no trend in well buffered watersheds
20 Year Trends
Silic. Gran. Bas.
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Mea
n te
mpe
ratu
re o
r Le
uctr
a ab
unda
nce
Mean annual temperature and Leuctra abundance (Z scores)
Mean temp
Mean Leuctra
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Mea
n te
mpe
ratu
re o
r Le
uctr
a ab
unda
nce
Mean annual temperature and Leuctra abundance (Z scores)
Mean temp
Mean Leuctra
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Mea
n te
mpe
ratu
re o
r Le
uctr
a ab
unda
nce
Mean annual temperature and Leuctra abundance (Z scores)
Mean temp
Mean Leuctra
Benthic macroinvertebrate summary• Geology is major driver of spatial patterns
in macroinvertebrate metrics, largely result of water quality (i.e. acidification).
• Temporal trends indicate small declines in ecosystem health parkwide with larger declines in condition in more acidified (i.e. siliciclastic geology) watersheds
• Increase in water temperature may be driving declining stream conditions parkwide
• Use data to support air quality improvements/mitigation/regulatory environment
• Restructure monitoring plans?• Difficult to formally assess current data
holistically• Develop park standards
• Stream liming (?)
Moving Forward