April 22, 2015 University of Missouri Extension. Pat Guinan April 22, 2015.
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Transcript of April 22, 2015 University of Missouri Extension. Pat Guinan April 22, 2015.
April 22, 2015
University of Missouri Extension
Pat Guinan
April 22, 2015
2015 was warmest first quarter (Jan-Mar) for globe since records began in 1880…
Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Mild April in the Great Plains & Midwest…
+3-4°+6-7°
+5-6°+4-5°
Average Temperature Departure from Mean (°F) April 1-20, 2015
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/
MRCC
50-55°F
55-60°F
60-65°Fhttp://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/mesonets/soilTemp.html
Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015
Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Departure from Mean
Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015
Generally wet April with pockets of dryness…
MRCCMRCC
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
7-day precipitation forecast beginning 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr. 21 thru 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr 28,
2015
11
0.5
0.5
1.523
.25
.250.5
6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook Apr 27- May 1, 2015
6-10 Day Temperature Outlook Apr 27- May 1, 2015
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
David Reinbott
April 22, 2015
Issues Impacting Prices on April 22
• Strong U.S. dollar
• Planting progress – 9% vs. 13%
• Acres planted – change of 1- 2 million
• Large world stocks
• Growing S.A. crop
• Avian bird flu
• Grain sorghum acres up
2015 Grain Sorghum Budget2015
Cost &
Returns
Adequate
Sugarcane
Aphid
Control
Without Adequate Sugarcane
Aphid Control
2015
Cost &
Returns
Corn
Revenue
Estimated Yield (Bu/Acre)A 110 110 82.5 150
Estimated Price ($/Bushel)B $4.60 $4.60 $4.60 $3.70
Estimated Gross Revenue ($/Acre) $506.00 $506.00 $379.50 $555.00
Total Variable Cost 328.06$ 340.54$ 334.29$ 453.29$
Fixed CostsFixed Machinery CostI 47.00 47.00 51.70 52.00 Fixed Buildings & Bins Cost 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 Total Costs (Excluding Land) 392.06$ 404.54$ 402.99$ 522.29$
Estimated ReturnsReturns Above Variable Costs $177.95 $165.46 $45.21 $101.71Returns Above Total Costs $113.95 $101.46 ($23.49) $32.71
Variable CostC
Weekly U.S. Dollar Futures
Corn Balance Sheet1 Million less acres
U.S. Corn: Supply & UseNew Crop New Crop New Crop
2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 2015/16Planted Acres 90.6 89.2 88.2 88.2Harvested Acres 83.1 81.7 80.8 80.8
Yield 171 164 166 170
Beginning Stocks 1,232 1,828 1,828 1,828Production 14,216 13,399 13,411 13,735Imports 25 25 25 20Total supply 15,473 15,252 15,264 15,583
Feed & Residual 5,250 5,350 5,350 5,350Food, Seed, & Industrial 6,595 6,635 6,635 6,635Ethanol 5,200 5,225 5,225 5,225Total Domestic 11,845 11,985 11,985 11,985Export 1,800 1,820 1,825 1,825Total use 13,645 13,805 13,810 13,810
Ending Stocks 1,828 1,447 1,454 1,773Stocks/Use 13.4% 10.5% 10.5% 12.8%Ave Farm Price $3.70 $4.25 $4.10 $3.80
2015 - 16 Corn Ending Stocks Projections Matrix
USDA 2015-16 Est. Beginning Stocks 1.827 Billion Bushels Import 0.025 Billion BushelsUSDA Estimated 2015-16 Demand 13.81 Billion Bushels
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres 154 156 158 160 162 164 165 166 167 168 169
86.7 79.5 0.284 0.443 0.602 0.761 0.920 1.079 1.158 1.237 1.317 1.396 1.47687.2 79.9 0.354 0.514 0.674 0.834 0.994 1.154 1.234 1.314 1.393 1.473 1.55387.7 80.4 0.425 0.586 0.747 0.907 1.068 1.229 1.309 1.390 1.470 1.550 1.63188.2 80.8 0.496 0.657 0.819 0.981 1.142 1.304 1.385 1.466 1.546 1.627 1.70888.7 81.3 0.566 0.729 0.891 1.054 1.217 1.379 1.460 1.542 1.623 1.704 1.78689.2 81.8 0.637 0.800 0.964 1.127 1.291 1.454 1.536 1.618 1.700 1.781 1.86389.7 82.2 0.707 0.872 1.036 1.201 1.365 1.529 1.612 1.694 1.776 1.858 1.94090.2 82.7 0.778 0.943 1.109 1.274 1.439 1.605 1.687 1.770 1.853 1.935 2.01890.7 83.1 0.848 1.015 1.181 1.347 1.514 1.680 1.763 1.846 1.929 2.012 2.09591.2 83.6 0.919 1.086 1.253 1.421 1.588 1.755 1.838 1.922 2.006 2.089 2.17391.7 84.0 0.990 1.158 1.326 1.494 1.662 1.830 1.914 1.998 2.082 2.166 2.250
Yield per Acre
Bu./ac.
May 2015 Corn Futures
December 2015 Corn Futures
Ron Plain
April 22, 2015
Cattle Outlook (title)
Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Cents per Pound
Source: USDA/ERS
10 monthly records in 2014
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
25019
45
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
f
Pounds
Source: USDA/ERS
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Million Head
2014: 33.9 million head, up 0.5%
First increase since 1995
Source: USDA/NASS
U. S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percent
Imports Exports
U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly
Source: USDA/ERS
Dollar Exchange Rate
USDA expects 2015 meat exports to be down 6% and meat imports to be up 4% compared to 2014.
C-S-0804/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9%2015 year-to-date is down 6.0%
C-S-1804/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 steer dressed weight was up 1.0%2015 year-to-date weight is up 1.6%
C-S-1404/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8%2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%
C-S-1304/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 heifer slaughter was down 7.9%2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%
Large U.S. Feedlots, Monthly
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
2012
2013
2014
2015
Mar 1 cattle on feed: down 0.5%
Cattle on Feed
04/13/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Choice Steer Breakeven PriceS. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$ Per Cwt.
Breakeven Projected Breakeven
Source: LMIC
Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.
U.S. Commercial Beef ProductionMillion Pounds
*forecast
2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,660
Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,240*
Qtr 3 6,609 6,178 6,210*
Qtr 4 6,423 6,023 6,100*
Year 25,720 24,252 24,210*
----- % Change -----
2013-14 2014-15.
- 4.9% - 3.5%.
- 5.1% +0.9%.
- 6.4% +0.5%.
- 6.2% +1.3%.
- 5.7% - 0.2%
5 Area Slaughter Steer PricesChoice Steers Per Live Hundredweight
2012 2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 $125.29 $125.52 $146.34 $162.43
Qtr 2 $121.91 $124.95 $147.82 $162-168*
Qtr 3 $119.69 $122.30 $158.49 $157-169*
Qtr 4 $125.54 $130.77 $165.60 $157-171*
Year $122.86 $125.89 $154.56 $160-167*
*forecast
Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price,Monthly Average 2000-2015
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Dollars per Cwt.
Cash Futures
OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price,Monthly Average 2000-2015
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Dollars per Cwt.
Cash Futures
Estimated Average Cow Calf ReturnsReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
$ Per Cow
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
David Reinbott
April 22, 2015
Issues Impacting Prices on April 22
• Record acres and production
• U.S. acres – plus 1 – 2 million acres
• U.S. exports
• Large S.A. crop
• Large world stocks
Soybean Balance Sheet
1 Million more acres
U.S. Soybean: Supply & UseNew Crop New Crop New Crop
2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 2015/16Planted Acres 83.7 84.6 85.6 85.6Harvested Acres 83.1 83.8 84.7 84.7
Yield 47.8 44.6 44.6 46.0
Beginning Stocks 92 370 370 370Production 3,972 3,737 3,780 3,898Imports 30 20 20 20Total supply 4,094 4,127 4,170 4,288
Crush 1,795 1,800 1,800 1,800Seed & Feed 136 120 120 120Export 1,790 1,800 1,825 1,825Total use 3,721 3,720 3,745 3,745
Ending Stocks 373 407 425 543Stocks/Use 10.0% 11.0% 11.3% 14.5%Ave Farm Price $10.10 $9.75 $9.50 $8.50
2015 - 16 Soybean Ending Stocks Projections Matrix
USDA 2015-16 Est. Beginning Stocks 0.37 Billion Bushels Import 0.020 Billion BushelsEstimated 2015-16 Demand 3.72 Billion Bushels
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres 42.1 42.6 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1
82.1 81.3 0.092 0.132 0.173 0.214 0.254 0.295 0.336 0.376 0.417 0.458 0.49882.6 81.8 0.113 0.154 0.194 0.235 0.276 0.317 0.358 0.399 0.440 0.481 0.52283.1 82.3 0.134 0.175 0.216 0.257 0.298 0.339 0.380 0.421 0.463 0.504 0.54583.6 82.8 0.154 0.196 0.237 0.279 0.320 0.361 0.403 0.444 0.485 0.527 0.56884.1 83.3 0.175 0.217 0.258 0.300 0.342 0.383 0.425 0.467 0.508 0.550 0.59184.6 83.8 0.196 0.238 0.280 0.322 0.364 0.405 0.447 0.489 0.531 0.573 0.61585.1 84.2 0.217 0.259 0.301 0.343 0.385 0.428 0.470 0.512 0.554 0.596 0.63885.6 84.7 0.238 0.280 0.322 0.365 0.407 0.450 0.492 0.534 0.577 0.619 0.66186.1 85.2 0.259 0.301 0.344 0.386 0.429 0.472 0.514 0.557 0.600 0.642 0.68586.6 85.7 0.279 0.322 0.365 0.408 0.451 0.494 0.537 0.579 0.622 0.665 0.70887.1 86.2 0.300 0.343 0.386 0.430 0.473 0.516 0.559 0.602 0.645 0.688 0.731
Yield per Acre
Bu./acre
2015 May Soybeans
2015 November Soybeans
Ron Plain
April 22, 2015
U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2015
200
250
300
350
400
450Ja
n 0
0
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Cents Per Pound
Source: USDA/ERS
Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2015
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
8020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Marketing Month
$ Per Live Cwt
Actual Forecast
Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri
U.S. Hog Imports from Canada
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,00019
97
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Head per mo.
Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs
Source: USDA/ERS
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, 2006-2015
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ja
n 0
6A
PR
JU
LO
CT
Ja
n 0
7A
PR
JU
LO
CT
Ja
n 0
8A
PR
JU
LO
CT
Ja
n 0
9A
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
n 1
0A
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
n 1
1A
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
n 1
2A
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
n 1
3A
pr
Ju
lO
ct
Ja
n 1
4A
pr
Ju
lO
ct
20
15
% of Production
Imports Exports
Source: USDA/ERS
New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by WeekNAHLN Reports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4-1
5 5
-06
5-2
7 6
-16
7-0
7 7
-28
8-1
8 9
-08
9-2
9 1
0-20
11-
10 1
2-01
12-
22 0
1-12
02-
02 0
2-23
03-
16 0
4-06
04-
27 0
5-18
06-
08 0
6-29
07-
20 0
8-10
08-
31 0
9-21
10-
12 1
1-02
11-
23 1
2-14
01/
04 0
1/25
02/
15 0
3/08
2013-2015 Week Ending
New Cases
PDCoV
PEDV
Source: AASV & NAHLN
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Month
8.6
8.8
9
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10
10.2
10.4
10.6
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Head
Pigs per litter:
Dec-Feb 14: - 5.5%
Dec-Feb 15: +6.7%
Source: USDA/NASS
Barrow & Gilt Live WeightsIowa-Minnesota Weekly Average
265
270
275
280
285
290
Pounds
2013
2014
2015
record
2014 average was 284.4 lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013
Source: USDA/AMS
H-S-0504/17/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2014 hog slt - 4.6%2015 YTD slt + 6.8%
March Hog InventoryAll Hogs & Pigs 107.2 Kept for Breeding 102.2 Kept for Marketing 107.7 Under 50 lbs 109.4 50-119 lbs. 106.6 120-179 lbs. 106.0 180 lbs. and over 108.9 Jun-Aug Farrowings 103.5 Sep-Nov Farrowings 103.3 Dec-Feb Farrowings 102.4 Mar-May Farrowing Intentions 102.1 Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions 97.9
Source: USDA - NASS
Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
DJ
F9
9
DJ
F0
0
DJ
F0
1
DJ
F0
2
DJ
F0
3
DJ
F0
4
DJ
F0
5
DJ
F0
6
DJ
F0
7
DJ
F0
8
DJ
F0
9
DJ
F1
0
DJ
F1
1
DJ
F1
2
DJ
F1
3
DJ
F1
4
DJ
F1
5
% change from yr. ago
Source: USDA/NASS
H-P-0904/13/15
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds
*Forecast
2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 5,777 5,785 6,155
Qtr 2 5,519 5,504 5,720*
Qtr 3 5,622 5,423 5,915*
Qtr 4 6,274 6,132 6,450*
Year 23,187 22,844 24,240*
------ Change ------2013-14 2014-15
+ 0.1% + 6.4%
- 0.3% + 3.9%
- 3.6% + 9.1%
- 2.3% + 5.2%
- 1.5% + 6.1%
Source: USDA - OCE
Iowa-Minn. Hog Price ForecastNegotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight
2012 2013 2014 2015
Qtr 1 $84.78 $80.17 $ 95.15 $64.10
Qtr 2 $85.45 $89.33 $115.67 $68-72*
Qtr 3 $83.15 $95.37 $111.79 $68-72*
Qtr 4 $79.93 $82.36 $ 88.65 $62-66*
Year $83.36 $86.87 $102.83 $66-70*
*Forecast price – prior day purchased
Net Slaughter Hog Price,Monthly Average 2002-2015
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Jan
16
Dollars per cwt.
Cash Futures
Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015Iowa State University Calculations
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
$ Per Head
Actual Forecast
Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
David Reinbott
April 22, 2015
Issues Impacting Prices on April 22
• Plains drought/rain
• World ending stocks going up
Wheat Balance SheetU.S. Wheat: Supply & Use New Crop
2014/15 2015/16 ChangePlanted Acres 56.8 55.4 -1.4Harvested Acres 46.4 46.9 0.5
Yield 43.7 45.4 1.70
Beginning Stocks 590 691 101Production 2,026 2,130 104Imports 145 150 5Total supply 2,761 2,971 210
Feed 160 165 5Food, Seed, & Industrial 1,037 1,045 8Total Domestic 1,197 1,210 13Export 880 1,000 120Total use 2,077 2,210 133
Ending Stocks 684 761 77Stocks/Use 32.9% 34.4% 1.5%Ave Farm Price $6.05 $5.40 -$0.65
2015 July Wheat
Joe Horner
April 22, 2015
Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell
• Supply Neutral– US cow numbers – rising slowly 1.1% (Feb 2015 year over year)
– US milk per cow – rising 0.6% (Feb 2015 year over year)
– US milk production – rising 1.7% (Feb 2015 year over year)
– California drought constraining 1/5 milk (-3.8% Feb 2015 year over year)
• Demand Neutral– Domestic – Spring flush moving supply to storage– Exports – Strong dollar hurting exports vs. NZ & EU – Global – Chinese and Middle Eastern weakness
• Outlook Better than feared– Margins pressured, but milk price hasn’t collapsed– Cull cow prices vs. milk prices dictate length of low prices
Stocks – Rising
Bullish Neutral
Bearish Bearish
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/pages/content/farmBill/fb_MPPDTool.jsp
Dairy Price Outlook
1st Half
2015
2nd Half
20152015
USDA – All Milk PriceFebruary 17, 2015
$16.00 - $17.00 $17.05 - $19.30 $17.05 -$17.65
MO Farm Forecast $18.25 $19.00 $18.50