April 2010: Deepwater Horizon, Golf of Mexico

At approximately 9:45 pm, 20th April 2010, high- pressure methane gas from the well expanded into the drilling riser and rose into the drilling rig, where it ignited and exploded. Following the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, which claimed 11 lives, a sea-floor oil gusher flowed for 87 days. The total discharge is estimated at 780 000 m3. As of February 2013, criminal and civil settlements and payments to a trust fund had cost BP $42.2 billion.

Pirate Attack Saudi Super-Tank seized off Kenian Cost16th November 2008

Safety in Atlântic…

Reservatórios Convencionaisvolumes reduzidos,

exploração quasi imediata

Investimentos crescentes, elevada tecnologia,

intensivo em conhecimento e novas competências

Reservatórios Não Convencionais

volumes elevados, exploração complexa

P & G e os novos desafios do conhecimento...

subsea versus surface technology changing paradigms for oil and gas exploration

Technological trends: uncertainty and complexity

DISRUPTIVE CONTINUITY

“Oil & Gas” – “Subsea to Beach”

Riserless DrillingRiserless Drilling

Laser DrillingLaser DrillingNanoparticles Nanoparticles

NanomaterialsNanomaterials

Subsea Processing

Subsea Processing

Subsea Power Distribution

Subsea Power Distribution

Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

Future “FPSO”Future “FPSO”New generation of Process EquipmentNew generation of Process Equipment

Source: Petrobras

Which technology forecast for deep sea Oil&Gas?

1)NANOMEDICINE:Drug Delivery systems, molecular diagnosis systems and chips, cell therapies, imaging solutions, regenerative materials, biomolecular labels, synaptic process monitoring, tissue engineering, etc

2) ENVIRONMENT MONITORING AND FOOD CONTROL: Nanotechnology applied to food industry, food safety and environmental control. Water and Soil control, air pollution monitoring, artificial nanopore sensors, lab-on-a-chip technologies, Smart Packaging and labels, food control process, biosensing technologies,

3) NANOELECTRONICS & ENERGY: NEMS/MEMS, Spintronics, Photonics, Nanofluidics, Molecular electronics, Organic electronics, Energy harvesting devices, nanostructured materials for energy storage and conversion, solar cells, Nanotechnologies to support the previous research areas

4) NANOMANIPULATION:Single molecule/atom manipulation, molecular motors, nanotwezzers, self assembly controlled processes of building blocks for nanodevices.

INL Research areas

FPSO Environmental Management System: Environmental Aspects

From Automation to “i-Fields”

Evolving Processes of Technical Change

PRODUCTS

PRODUCT

more technologies to produce each product

more products produced from a given technology

Sources: von Tunzelmann (1999); Couto et al (2012)

TECHNOLOGIES

PROCESSES

TECHNOLOGY

PROCESSES

•New reactors•Nuclear fusion

•New energy biomass

•Photovoltaic materials•Fuel cells•Superconductors

•Supervision of energy processes•Robotics•Security systems

•Batteries•Pacemakers•Artificial Heart

•Recombin. DNA•New drugs•Enzymatic Synthesis

•Membranes•Biocompatible materials

•Instrumental analysis of dna sequences

•Power lasers•Bio-leaching•Biological ore processing

•New alloys•Ceramics and composits

•Computer based design of new materials

•Photovoltaic applications

•Biosensors•Biochips

•Semiconductors•Superconduct.

•Telematics•Automation•Computers

energybiotechmaterialsICTs

Emerging interactions... Source: BIPE

from

to

ICTs

materials

biotech

energy

TECHNOLOGY

MARKETExisting New

Existing

New Increasing uncertainty

evolutionary leverage base

radicaldiscontinuity

Source: Branscomb,Morse & Roberts (2001): www.atp.nist.gov/eao/gcr_787.pdf

Patterns of technical change

Nathan Rosenberg (2001):“uncertainty in the realms of both science and technology ... have enormously important consequences and a main concern is how organisations and incentives migth be modified to accommodate these uncertainties.”Source: OECD(2001), “Social Sciences and Innovation”

Chris Freeman (2001):“There is an irreducible uncertainty about future political, economic and market developments ....,technological innovations may actually increase it, since they add to the dimensions of general business uncertainty, the dimension of technological uncertainty.”Source: SPRU (2001)

Stakeholder involvement:the IRGC risk governance framework

IRGC RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK

Assessment Sphere:Generation of Knowledge

Management Sphere:Decision on & Implementation of Actions

Risk Characterisation• Risk Profile• Judgement of the

Seriousness of Risk• Conclusions & Risk

Reduction Options

Risk Evaluation• Judging the Tolera-

bility & Acceptability• Need for Risk

Reduction Measures

Tolerability & Acceptability Judgement

Pre-Assessment:• Problem Framing• Early Warning• Screening• Determination of Scientific Conventions

Pre-Assessment

Risk Appraisal:Risk Assessment• Hazard Identification & Estimation• Exposure & Vulnerability Assessment• Risk Estimation

Concern Assessment• Risk Perceptions• Social Concerns• Socio-Economic Impacts

Risk AppraisalRisk ManagementImplementation• Option Realisation• Monitoring & Control• Feedback from Risk Mgmt. Practice

Decision Making• Option Identification & Generation• Option Assessment• Option Evaluation & Selection

Risk Management

Communication

1 Knowledge Challenge: Complexity Uncertainty Ambiguity

2 Risk judged: acceptable tolerable intolerable

3 Risk Management Strategy: routine-based risk-informed/robustness-

focussed precaution-based/resilience-

focussed discourse-based