April 2010: Deepwater Horizon, Golf of Mexico At approximately 9:45 pm, 20th April 2010, high-...
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Transcript of April 2010: Deepwater Horizon, Golf of Mexico At approximately 9:45 pm, 20th April 2010, high-...
April 2010: Deepwater Horizon, Golf of Mexico
At approximately 9:45 pm, 20th April 2010, high- pressure methane gas from the well expanded into the drilling riser and rose into the drilling rig, where it ignited and exploded. Following the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, which claimed 11 lives, a sea-floor oil gusher flowed for 87 days. The total discharge is estimated at 780 000 m3. As of February 2013, criminal and civil settlements and payments to a trust fund had cost BP $42.2 billion.
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Reservatórios Convencionaisvolumes reduzidos,
exploração quasi imediata
Investimentos crescentes, elevada tecnologia,
intensivo em conhecimento e novas competências
Reservatórios Não Convencionais
volumes elevados, exploração complexa
P & G e os novos desafios do conhecimento...
subsea versus surface technology changing paradigms for oil and gas exploration
Technological trends: uncertainty and complexity
DISRUPTIVE CONTINUITY
“Oil & Gas” – “Subsea to Beach”
Riserless DrillingRiserless Drilling
Laser DrillingLaser DrillingNanoparticles Nanoparticles
NanomaterialsNanomaterials
Subsea Processing
Subsea Processing
Subsea Power Distribution
Subsea Power Distribution
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle
Future “FPSO”Future “FPSO”New generation of Process EquipmentNew generation of Process Equipment
Source: Petrobras
Which technology forecast for deep sea Oil&Gas?
1)NANOMEDICINE:Drug Delivery systems, molecular diagnosis systems and chips, cell therapies, imaging solutions, regenerative materials, biomolecular labels, synaptic process monitoring, tissue engineering, etc
2) ENVIRONMENT MONITORING AND FOOD CONTROL: Nanotechnology applied to food industry, food safety and environmental control. Water and Soil control, air pollution monitoring, artificial nanopore sensors, lab-on-a-chip technologies, Smart Packaging and labels, food control process, biosensing technologies,
3) NANOELECTRONICS & ENERGY: NEMS/MEMS, Spintronics, Photonics, Nanofluidics, Molecular electronics, Organic electronics, Energy harvesting devices, nanostructured materials for energy storage and conversion, solar cells, Nanotechnologies to support the previous research areas
4) NANOMANIPULATION:Single molecule/atom manipulation, molecular motors, nanotwezzers, self assembly controlled processes of building blocks for nanodevices.
INL Research areas
FPSO Environmental Management System: Environmental Aspects
From Automation to “i-Fields”
Evolving Processes of Technical Change
PRODUCTS
PRODUCT
more technologies to produce each product
more products produced from a given technology
Sources: von Tunzelmann (1999); Couto et al (2012)
TECHNOLOGIES
PROCESSES
TECHNOLOGY
PROCESSES
•New reactors•Nuclear fusion
•New energy biomass
•Photovoltaic materials•Fuel cells•Superconductors
•Supervision of energy processes•Robotics•Security systems
•Batteries•Pacemakers•Artificial Heart
•Recombin. DNA•New drugs•Enzymatic Synthesis
•Membranes•Biocompatible materials
•Instrumental analysis of dna sequences
•Power lasers•Bio-leaching•Biological ore processing
•New alloys•Ceramics and composits
•Computer based design of new materials
•Photovoltaic applications
•Biosensors•Biochips
•Semiconductors•Superconduct.
•Telematics•Automation•Computers
energybiotechmaterialsICTs
Emerging interactions... Source: BIPE
from
to
ICTs
materials
biotech
energy
TECHNOLOGY
MARKETExisting New
Existing
New Increasing uncertainty
evolutionary leverage base
radicaldiscontinuity
Source: Branscomb,Morse & Roberts (2001): www.atp.nist.gov/eao/gcr_787.pdf
Patterns of technical change
Nathan Rosenberg (2001):“uncertainty in the realms of both science and technology ... have enormously important consequences and a main concern is how organisations and incentives migth be modified to accommodate these uncertainties.”Source: OECD(2001), “Social Sciences and Innovation”
Chris Freeman (2001):“There is an irreducible uncertainty about future political, economic and market developments ....,technological innovations may actually increase it, since they add to the dimensions of general business uncertainty, the dimension of technological uncertainty.”Source: SPRU (2001)
Stakeholder involvement:the IRGC risk governance framework
IRGC RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK
Assessment Sphere:Generation of Knowledge
Management Sphere:Decision on & Implementation of Actions
Risk Characterisation• Risk Profile• Judgement of the
Seriousness of Risk• Conclusions & Risk
Reduction Options
Risk Evaluation• Judging the Tolera-
bility & Acceptability• Need for Risk
Reduction Measures
Tolerability & Acceptability Judgement
Pre-Assessment:• Problem Framing• Early Warning• Screening• Determination of Scientific Conventions
Pre-Assessment
Risk Appraisal:Risk Assessment• Hazard Identification & Estimation• Exposure & Vulnerability Assessment• Risk Estimation
Concern Assessment• Risk Perceptions• Social Concerns• Socio-Economic Impacts
Risk AppraisalRisk ManagementImplementation• Option Realisation• Monitoring & Control• Feedback from Risk Mgmt. Practice
Decision Making• Option Identification & Generation• Option Assessment• Option Evaluation & Selection
Risk Management
Communication
1 Knowledge Challenge: Complexity Uncertainty Ambiguity
2 Risk judged: acceptable tolerable intolerable
3 Risk Management Strategy: routine-based risk-informed/robustness-
focussed precaution-based/resilience-
focussed discourse-based