Bullseye ReportWeekly Overview

Authored by:Juanis G. BarredoVP; Chief Technical AnalystCOL Financial Group Inc.(632) 636-5411Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com

Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity Research Dept as of

the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational

purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.

Philippine Equity Research

April 17, 2017

WEEK’S HIGLIGHTS• The Philippines’ PSEi pushed up 45-pts for the week, breaking over

its consolidation pattern

• Average Daily Value Turnover was lower at P6.4-B coming from P9.6-B the week previous

• Net foreign flows were positive again at P656-M as against inflows the P9.6-B the previous week

• The PSEi (at 7,630) rallied again for the week continuing itsadvance after breaking out of its sidewards pattern two weeks ago. The index however has risen to light overbought levels and may begin to produce some choppiness as some rotation (due to profit taking) occurs. The index remains into a recovery swing and may proceed to look at next resistance zones after some pause/reactive moments. Next resistance zones are at 7,720-7,780 then followed by its wider range highs at 8,118

• US indices were lower for the week and may have to be closely watched in case support faults are seen. The Dow, Sp500 and Nasdaq are getting close to a critical support and this may unnerve other markets. The Dollar also failed to rally over resistance and swung back in consequence. US Bond Yields have also broken support after a double top pattern suggesting that US rates may not move too aggressively moving forward. This fared well for the Philippine Peso which broke below its P50.00 zone at P49.43

Focus ItemsHighlight Page

Philippines : Weekly Stats 2

Philippines : PSEi & Peso 3

Tech Map: Some key stocks and trend calls 4

US and Europe: In review 5

Asia: In review 6

Currencies & Commodities: In review 7

Issue Prev Wk Last Wk Wk Chg Wk Chg % YTD %

Philippines 7,584 7,630 45.89 0.61 11.53

Peso-$ 50.08 49.43 (0.650) (1.30) (0.58)

MSCI Phils 35.86 36 0.14 0.39 11.11

PLDT US 34.62 35.26 0.640 1.85 27.99

DJIA 20,656 20,453 (202.85) (0.98) 3.49

SP500 2,356 2,329 (26.59) (1.13) 4.03

Nasdaq 5,878 5,805 (72.66) (1.24) 7.84

England 7,349 7,328 (21.78) (0.30) 2.59

Nikkei 18,665 18,427 (237.79) (1.27) (3.60)

Hong Kong 24,267 24,262 (5.64) (0.02) 10.28

China 3,287 3,276 (10.66) (0.32) 5.55

US 30yr Bond 150.74 153.21 2.47 1.64 2.28

10-Yr Yield 23.73 22.32 (1.410) (5.94) (8.75)

Dollar Indx 101.12 100.46 (0.66) (0.65) (1.79)

Gold 1,257.30 1,288.50 31.20 2.48 11.88

Oil 52.24 53.18 0.94 1.80 (1.01)

CRB Index 187.11 187.77 0.66 0.35 (2.46)

-3.1-3.4

-7.54-7.2

-4.6

-2.1

3.6

-0.861-2.84

1.03

-1.66

-4.64-4.18-5.55

-3.79-1.84-1.11

-4.35-4.8

1.081.21.12

-0.562-1.28-0.919-1.7-0.946-1.55-2.48-0.288-0.927

-3.33

-6.5

8.7

0.65

-10-8-6-4-202468

10

08/1

9/1

6

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6

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12/0

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Net Foreign Flows (PHP Billions)

Philippines: Weekly Stats**Bullseye --- Page 2

*Source: PSEPER (Price/Earnings Ratio) data uses four-quarter trailing financial data

2017 Net Outflows of P-8.12-B

Philippines: PSEi & PesoBullseye --- Page 3

Recommendation: Hold or buy into dips

Support: 7,252 – 7,123 Resistance: 7,402 - 7,720

• The PSEi was up 45-pts for the week effectively breaking out of its consolidation range resistance (7,402-7,417)

• This restores its rally trend and proposes a possible swingback to next resistance zones (7,720-7,780)

• If these supply areas can break, the next target would be its previous high of 8,118

• Short term signals see some over-extension (overbought) and may prod better buys after a slight pullback

•Weekly and Daily MACD reads are still alright which can engender a hold

Recommendation: Buy the Dollar on wider support dips

Support: 49.28 - 48.82 Resistance: 50.40 - 50.85

• The Peso (at P49.43) was stronger against the Dollar finally breaking below the P50.-$1.00

• This swerve in short term trend may have caused a temporary top and may allow for a wider pullback

• Its weekly MACD leans more on corrective action which may inhibit depreciation threats for the meantime – next support is seen at 49.45 (hit) - 49.28 followed by 48.82 (Fibo38.2% retracement level)

• The last two are better buy zones for the Dollar

Tech Map

AGI 2GO ABS PHA CAL ATBLOOM AC AEV PIZZA^ CHP COSCO

CEB BDO ALCO PNB^ COAL DIZMWC BEL ALI PSE CPG ELI

MWIDE BPI ANI^ PSPC CROWN FGENPIP CHIB ANS^ RCB^ DAVIN NI

SECB CIC AP RFM DMC NIKLSMC EDC APC RLC EMP PGOLDTEL EEI AR RRHI HLCM SHLPHURC EW AUB SBS HOUSEVLL GLO BHI SGI ION

ICT CNPF^ STI ISIMI DD* TECH LCJGS DMPL TUGS MARCLTG DNL UBP MAXSMBT FDC UNI OREMCP FLI VITA PCORPLC FNI PHENPNX FOOD PX

ROCK FPH PXPSCC GERI RWMSM GTCAP SLI

SMPH HVN SSIX JFC TAPET

LPZLR

MAMEG^MERMPI

MRSGI^NOW

OV

11 (+4) 24 (+8) 50 (+4) 24 (+12) 9 (-28)

Some Key Stocks and Trend CallsBullseye --- Page 4

GREEN

RED

BLACK

-These issues improved their technical condition for the week (moving to the left of their column category on the Tech Map)-These issues deteriorated on their technical condition for the week (moving to the right of their column category on the Tech Map)-These issues carried the same technical condition for the week (standing on the same column category on the Tech Map)

Legend: (Note: Trends are cast in the short term)

Up trends:These issues show continuing if not strong up trends. Look for trading buys now if risk-reward measures are appealing or if not, buy into slight dips.

Up trends needy of reactions or are reacting:These issues show continuing up trends but are showing some reactive adjustments due to profit taking. Look for pullbacks to short term support or a rally from such support to cast fresh buy trades.

Consolidations (Sideward trends):These issues are running through consolidation phases. Either wait for key range breaks or range trade and buy into a support bounce. Keep watch of possible range break bias in the following direction [~-up/down, ^-up, *-down).

Down trends needy of rallies or are rallying:These issues show continuing down trends but are undergoing a temporary/oversold rally. Lighten or sell into rebounds to resistance for now.

Down trends:These issues show continuing down trends. Stay out for now until better demand patterns appear.

Stock Code Color Guide:

Total Issues (change from last report)

US and European MarketsBullseye --- Page 5

US indices slide & threaten next support

• US markets were lower for the week and have softened to the point of threatening nextsupport levels. The Dow and Sp500’s 65-day Moving Averages have broken while that of the Nasdaq may come to test this support shelf. All three are coming to test the lows they have showed in March and still depict tenderness

• Short term Support and Resistance estimates for US indices are shown below:

Dow: 20,412-19,911 – (R) 20,800-21,200

SP500: 2,322-2,280 – (R) 2,390-2,400

Nasdaq: 5,769-5,587 – (R) 5,928-6,000

• Euro-zone indices were mostly lower led down by Spain (-1.93%) and France (-1.25%). Germany and England were lower as well. TheSpanish Ibex broke its short term up trendlinesupport while the DAX and CAC are now testing their trendline support. The British FTSE is in a sideways pattern after breaking its up trendline late in March

• The US 10-Yr Bond Yield ($tnx) was lower for the week breaking down from its sidewards pattern. The support breach of 23.09 (2.30%) may send Yields closer to 21.27 (2.12%) or 20.00 (2.0%) after showing a double top pattern reversal at 26.00

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

Breakdown

Support

Threat

Asian MarketsAsia was mostly lower; Philippines & Thailand up:

• Asian markets were mostly lower led down by Japan. The Nikkei broke support after the Yen continued to rally against the Dollar’s weakness. Some other part of Asia are still feeling corrective pressure

• The PSEi (7,629 +0.61% WoW) rallied 45-pts for the short week but did break free off of itsconsolidation resistance (7,402-7,417). This may drive it first to recoup closer to 7,720-7,780… and if strong enough perhaps try to swing towards 8,118. However short term overbought levels are now showing which may cause some choppiness into prices. Its MACD still looks good and may limit corrections to slight pullbacks – unless of course heavy momentum is lost in the process.

Bullseye --- Page 6

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

Divergence

Breakout

Breakdown

Trendline

Break

Asian Indices (for the week) YTD RSI

Philippines 0.61% 11.53% 71.16%

Thailand 0.38% 3.36% 65.07%

Hong Kong -0.02% 11.58% 53.84%

S Korea -0.14% 5.06% 47.89%

Singapore -0.25% 10.27% 54.27%

Malaysia -0.26% 8.80% 56.86%

China -0.32% 5.74% 56.23%

India -0.83% 12.43% 51.71%

Indonesia -0.89% 6.44% 55.65%

Japan -1.27% -3.09% 33.59%Malaysia ($MYDOW) & Indonesia ($IDDOW) represented by their ETFs

Currencies & CommoditiesDollar index still weak, Oil nearly oversold:

• The US Dollar index (100.46 -0.65% WoW) was lower for the week after failing its attempt at resistance. A reactive channel remains into the Dollar index framed between 101.30 & 98.50 (Sup 98.67-98.50/Res 101.26-101.30)

• The Euro index (106.14 +0.18% WoW) rallied for the week after bouncing over its up trendline –a recovery channel still holds prices between 105.72 and 109.40 (Sup 106.50-105.72/ Res 108.29- 109.40)

• The Yen index (91.65 +1.80% WoW) [$¥108.63] rallied for the week given the weak Dollar. A recovery channel is till open between 90.30-93.20 (Sup 90.30-88.00 / Res 92.00-93.20)

• Gold ($1,288.50 +2.48% WoW) rallied well after breaking out of its $1264 resistance. This after the Dollar failed its resistance run. (Sup 1,258-1,231 /Res 1,309-1,338)

• Copper ($2.57 -2.89% WoW) fell hard after breaking its $2.55 support. Consolidating trends persist (Sup 2.54-2.44 /Res 2.66-2.71)

• Oil ($53.18 +1.80% WoW) rallied back over its $50 zone and may try to work back to its recent highs of $55.24 or perhaps even extend to $59.60. A recovery channel ($47.50-$59.60) still carries the wide swings of Oil. (Sup 50.70-47.50/ Res 55.24-59.60)

Bullseye --- Page 7

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period