Apricot eating case study

What are the odds?

Thank yous

Thanks Monty for the Apricots and Bananas

And somehow....

Somehow...

Somehow

Cindy also ate an apricot! (in Cape Town)

What are the odds?

● Assume 7 people at Saidwot ate a fruit today (not really, just assume)

● And assume there are only 15 different fruits people like to buy (again, just assume)

● What are the odds that at least 2 people ate the same fruit today?

Guess?

What are the odds? 90%? 50%? 10%? 1%?

The Pairs

First we need to know how many distinct pairs we can form with 7 people:

It's 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 21 believe it or yes!

In other words (7 * 6)/2 pairs

I don't eat that!

Now, what are the chances of someone eating a different fruit from what you ate?

It's: 1 - (14/15) = 0.93333333 = 93%

That's very high!

So?

So we have 21 pairs and 93% chance that 2 different people are eating 2 different fruits.

Combine

Now if we combine these numbers we get:

(.93333)21 = 0.2348 = 23.5%

That's 23.5% probability of 2 people eating different fruits.

Therefore

There must be 100% - 23.5% = 76.5% chances of 2 people eating the same fruit.

At Saidwot today!

That's Assuming...

Assuming all the wrong assumptions we had initially are true.

Correct me because I'm wrong.