Apresentacao Lino

7/31/2019 Apresentacao Lino

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Como realizar um projeto de

consultoriaDemetrio Lino Di Martino

So Paulo, setembro, 2002


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2

GENERIC PROJECT PLAN EXAMPLE

Start-up

Decision on team members

Team building activities

Hypothesis generation

Distribution of tasksBuilding hypotheses

Financial situation

Market situationFact-finding and analysis

Meeting with subteam

Preparation of master forsteering committee

Conclusions andrecommendations

Improvements in production

Improvements in marketingLaunch change

Production

Marketing

Tasks Weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15


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3

ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF CONSULTING PROJECTS

Core team

ClientsConsultants

Client team

Clients only

Subteam 1

Clients with/withoutconsultants

Steering committee

Top management

Client team membersConsultants

Function

Project executionRunning the (sub-) projectsControlling the (sub-) projectsSteering and runningsubteams

Function

Leadership Steering course of theproject

Controlling impact of thewhole project


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4

CLIENT/CONSULTANTS COLLABORATION

Core team

Client

Consultant

Multiple industryexpertise

Problem-solvingtechniques

Companyexperience

PeopleOrganization

Productsand processknowledge

Marketexperience

Internal webof experts

Projectmanagement

Analyticaltools

Worldwideweb of experts

Processmanagement


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Understand

need for

project

Understand

Client

environment

Organize

the team

and get

started

Gain exper-

tise by usingconsultant

and clientresources

Plan thecommuni-

cation

strategy

Start problemsolving

Read LOP

Talk to studynegotiator andED

Understanddegrees offreedom

Be clear onexpected endproducts

Companybackground(basicdocuments)

Organizationalcharts

PreviousConsultantongoingstudies(interview withother

consultants)Roles and

profiles of topmanagement

Stakeholders:potentialwinners/losers

Shareunderstanding of problemwith theteam basedon LOP

Develop firstissueanalysis andearly answer

Team charter:role, agenda,andobjectivesof

ED/associateCommunicati

on with client(who speakswith whom?)

Role of clientteam

Agendas/roles of membersof client team

Kickoffmeetingschedule

Formal

Informal

Scheduleprogress

reviewsandworkshops

Do notreinvent thewheel

Get a few

relevant PDsFindConsultantexperts

On topic On industry

On client

Identifypotentialinformationsources withR&I

START-UP CHECKLIST: WHAT MUST EMs DO IN THEFIRST DAYS OF THE ENGAGEMENT?


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Think disaggregationand early hypothesis:what could be the keyelements of the

problem?

Think impact: whatdoes the client needto know?

Think speed: whichissues are mostimportant for team tofocus on?

Think efficiency:how and whereshouldthe teamspend its time?

Think so what:what are we tryingto prove/disprove?

Think potentialsolution: whatshould the clientdo?

Think nextiteration:what are clientnext priorities?

Think buy-in: howshould the teamconnect to theclient in everystep?

PROBLEM-SOLVING LOOP (7 EASY STEPS)

Clientproblem

1Define Problem

2Structureproblem

3Prioritizeissues 4

DevelopIssueanalysisand work

plan5

ConductAnalysis

6Synthesize

Findings

7DevelopRecom-menda-

tions


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WHAT IS GOOD PROBLEM SOLVING?

Good strategic problem solving is notanalytical wizardry

Good strategic problem solving is differentbecause it cuts across conventionalapproaches

Good problem solving uses frameworks tohelp understand and solve the problem

Good problem solving begins and endswith good communication

Impact-driven

Hypothesis-oriented

Fact-basedModular, but holistic

Iterative

End product-focused


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PROBLEM STATEMENT WORKSHEETBasic question to be resolvedThe basic question brings focus to the analytic work it should be succinct and ensure that the findings canbe acted upon. The more specific the statement the better, provided it is not so narrow that important levers tosolve the problem are missed

1 Perspective/context 3 Decision makers

2 Criteria for success

4 Other key study stakeholders

6 Scope of solution space

5 Constraints within solution space

Comments on the situation and complicationfacing the client, e.g., industry trends, relativeposition in the industry

Refers to the basis on which the client willdecide whether or not to act on the studyrecommendations, e.g., financial returns,

effect on staff, market share growth Defines the limits to the set of solutions that canbe considered. Note: constraints may have tobe relaxed as the study proceeds

Indicates what will not be included in the study, e.g., international markets, research and development

activities, uncontrolled corporate costs

Identifies who at the client decides whether toact upon the study recommendations, e.g.,CEO, Division Manager, SBU Manager

Identifies who else could support/derail thestudy and who else is influential


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PROBLEM STATEMENT WORKSHEET: Organizaes TabajaraEXAMPLE

Basic question to be resolvedHow can Organizaes Tabajara close the US$100 million profitability gap in 2 years and create a sustainableeconomic platform for the future?

1 Perspective/context 3 Decision makers

2 Criteria for success

4 Other key study stakeholders

6 Scope of solution space

5 Constraints within solution space

Rapidly consolidating industry Explosion of channels Deregulation leading to many new

non-traditional players Emergence of e-banks with much

lower cost base

Close the US$100 million gap within 2 years

Keep operating the bank as an independentcompany

Focus on retail banking only

Focus on US only

CEO of Tabajara

Tabajara Board of Directors

Shareholders

Employees Regulatory authorities


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QUALITY ISSUE TREES ARECONSISTENT, RELEVANT, AND MECE

MutuallyMutuallyExclusiveExclusiveCollectivelyCollectivelyExhaustiveExhaustive

First line ofsupport

Second line ofsupport

ProblemStatementWorksheet

Basic question toBasic question tobe resolvedbe resolved

Consistent

Consistent

Consistent

Consistent

RelevantRelevant

Basic question to beresolved

1.Perspective/ context

3Decisionmakers

2.

Criteria forsuccess

5.Constraints withinsolutionspace 6. Scope of

solution space

4.Other keystudystakeholders


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Source: Consultant

IDEA OF STRUCTURED PROBLEM-SOLVING: ISSUE TREE

Key advantages

Facilitates problem-solving

Parts of problemeasier to handle

Helps to maintainfocus

Facilitates planning Working in parallelpossible

Difficulties easierto detect

Facilitates

communication

ISSUE TREE EXAMPLE


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12

ISSUE TREE EXAMPLE

How can I havemore moneyat the end of themonth withoutincurring a debt?

Increaseincome

Reduceexpenses

Receive awindfall

Receive more $

from work

Pay less forsame amountof items

Buy less

Legally

Illegally

Work morehours

Make moreper hour

Buy lowerquality items

Shop aroundfor specials

Inherit

Win lottery

Higherjob level

Better paidindustry

How? How?

Receive more $from investments

Overtime

Additional job

Food Clothing Utensils Entertainment Travel Other

. . .


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Source: Consultant

Requirements for problem-solving

Focus on key issuesMECE

No "boiling the ocean"

Additional benefit forproblem-solving

100%

80%

20% 100% Effort to structureproblem

Try to beMECE

Try to be perfect

HOW TO PRIORITIZE: 80-20 RULE

NOTC

OSTEFF

ICIENT


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Use judgement/intuitionUse judgement/intuition

Do back-of-the-Do back-of-the-

envelope calculationsenvelope calculations

Involve your clientInvolve your client

Take risksTake risks

HOW TO PRIORITIZE

20

80

80

20

Time andTime andefforteffort

Focusing onFocusing onimpactimpact

PolishingPolishing

Benefit forBenefit forproblemproblemsolvingsolving

Be practical!


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PRIORITIZATION PARAMETERS

Low

HighLow

High

Financial impact(within 2 years)

Easeofimplementation

Do now

Plan howTo do now

Do later

Wait


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ISSUE ANALYSIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ACTION

Logic treeafter prioritization of issues

1

2

3

Issue analysis

Analyses

TO DOsTO DOs

MonMon TueTue WedWed ThuThu FriFri


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Issue HypothesisSupportingrationale

Information/Analysis

Source/Provider

Issue analysis worksheet

FROM ISSUE ANALYSIS TO WORKPLAN


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ISSUE ANALYSIS WORKSHEET

Hypothesis SupportingrationaleInformation/Analysis

Source/ProviderIssue

Key issue orunresolved question

that elicits a yes orno answer and onwhich a specificaction depends

Statement of thelikely resolution

of the issue;it includes thereason foranswering yesor no

Arguments thatare necessary and

sufficient to supportthe hypothesis

Analyses thatshould be

conducted to eitherconfirm or refute thehypothesis, and thusresolve the issue

Likely location andmeans of

obtaining data foranalyses


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ATTRIBUTES OF THE PYRAMID

So what?

Synth

esis

Synth

esis

Commu

nication

Commu

nication

What?Why?How?

+

CoherenceCoherence


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TWO TYPES OF REASONING IN STORYLINE PYRAMIDS

Grouping structure

Governing thought supported by separate butcoherent ideas (e.g., reasons, actions)

Argument structure

+

Governing thought supported by a progression ofideas: from a statement and a comment on thatstatement follows an implication


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CHOOSE RIGHT STRUCTURE FOR YOUR AUDIENCE

ReasonsActions

Receptive audience

vs.

vs.

vs.

ReasoningNeed for action

Resistant audience

ArgumentGrouping

Governingthought

Governingthought


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GROUPINGS SYNTHESIZE UP TO A GOVERNING THOUGHT

GoverningthoughtGoverningthought

Action or

reason

Action or

reason

Action or

reason

Action or

reason

Action or

reason

Action or

reason

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

What? Why? How?

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

Fact /

analysis

How do you knowthat?


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EXAMPLE: Organizaes Tabajara COMMUNITY IMAGE PYRAMID

Tax breakTax breakAfter- hoursevents

After- hoursevents

Sendmailings withstatements

Sendmailings with

statements

It wouldcreate

positivecoverage

It wouldcreate

positivecoverage

It would givean in with

large players

It would givean in with

large players

It wouldenhanceTabajarareputation

It wouldenhance

Tabajarareputation

To improve its communityimage, Organizaes Tabajara

should raise funds for theHousing for the Homelesscharity

To improve its communityimage, Organizaes Tabajara

should raise funds for theHousing for the Homelesscharity

It would not costmuchIt would not costmuch

It has severalmarketing

advantages

It has severalmarketing

advantages

It would boostemployee moraleIt would boostemployee morale

Pastvolunteer

work

Pastvolunteer

work

EmployeesurveyEmployeesurvey


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ARGUMENTS ALSO REQUIRE SYNTHESIS

Statement abouta situation

Comment onthat situation

Implication(therefore...)

Governingthought

encompassingall three legs of

argument

+

Why?

ReasonReasonReasonReason ReasonReasonReasonReason ActionActionActionAction

Why? How?


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ARGUMENT EXAMPLE: GENERAL

Low cost is thekey to long-termsuccess inCompany Xsmarket

Relative tocompetitors,Company X is ata costdisadvantage

Therefore,Company Xshould seek toreduce its costs

To compete long-

term, Company Xneeds to reduce itscosts

+


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SYNTHESIZE FINDINGS/PREPARE COMMUNICATION

Can you tell the CEO in 30 seconds

Where you are heading?Key issues?What the solution is?

ELEVATOR TEST


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FROM PYRAMID TO DOCUMENT STRUCTURE

Governingthought

A B C

1 3 52 4 76

a b

MAJOR AMinor 1Minor 2

Support aSupport b

MAJOR BMinor 3Minor 4

MAJOR CMinor 5Minor 6Support cSupport d

Minor 7

Governingthought

c d


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Document title

Client name

Document type

Place, Date

Introduction/context

Governing thought

Major

Major

Major

MAJOR

Minor

Minor

MinorSo what/message

MinorSo what/message

1 2

543

FROM PYRAMID TO STORYBOARD


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PONTOS RELEVANTES DA ESTRATGIA PARA O PORTO

O estudo detalhado das opes estratgicas para o negcio porturio foi fundamentado na

existncia do terminal como ativo estratgico das Organizaes Tabajara hoje alm de levar emconsiderao as possveis oportunidades de estabelecer um novo jogador no negcio logsticono Brasil

Esta oportunidade de diversificao passa pela anlise do potencial de otimizao da operaoatual, a expanso do terminal, a expanso para outras reas geogrficas e a possibilidade daFosfertil entrar no jogo logstico

A anlise da expanso das atividades porturias no terminal no indica, at o momento, que estaseria uma possibilidade atrativa para as Organizaes Tabajara, especialmente quandoconsideram-se as condies desfavorveis do cenrio competitivo e os elevados investimentosnecessrios

- O mercado onde o terminal pode competir reduzido e fragmentado

- Em geral, a capacidade de carga/descarga disponvel no mercado consegue atender a expansode demanda prevista para os prximos anos

- A captura de fatias de mercado dificultada tambm pela baixa diferenciao da proposta de

valor do terminal, especialmente em relao ao porto de Santos- O elevado nvel de investimentos necessrios para qualquer projeto de expanso do terminal

reduz significativamente as possibilidades de obter retornos positivos


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AVALIAO DA EXPANSO DO PORTO

Fonte: Consultant

Oportunidade comriscos elevadosOportunidade comriscos elevados

Volumescapturveispelo terminallimitados

Volumescapturveispelo terminallimitados

Excesso decapacidadede carga/descarga nomercado

Excesso decapacidadede carga/descarga nomercado

Investimentosno terminalelevados

Investimentosno terminalelevados

Proposta devalor do

terminalpoucodiferenciada

Proposta devalor do

terminalpoucodiferenciada


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DEFINIO DO MERCADO ALVO PARA O TERMINAL

* Excludas as movimentaes dos estados do norte, nordeste e RS

** Excludas as movimentaes de carga geral*** Excludas as movimentaes de produtos com baixa flexibilidade logstica (p.ex., minrio, carvo, coque, trigo)Fonte: Agncia Nacional dos Transportes Aquavirios, entrevistas, Consultant

milhes de toneladas

Movi-men-taes2000

Filtrogeo-grfico*

Movi-men-taesES, RJ,SP, PR,SC

Filtrotipo decarga**

Movi-men-taesgranisES, RJ,SP, PR,SC

Filtroflexibili-dadelogs-tica ***

Mercadode refe-rncia

Filtromovi-men-taescativas

Filtrocalado

Mercado-alvo 2000

Mercado-alvo 2005

Excl. dederi-vadosdepetrleo

= 2,4milhes

de t

CAGR = 3,8%

Inclui 100% dasmovimentaes de

Santos mais soja efertilizantes dosoutros portos da

regio

Inclui 100% dasmovimentaes de

Santos mais soja efertilizantes dosoutros portos da

regio

Os derivados de

petrleo do porto de Santosforam excludos doclculo por serem

analisadosseparadamente

Os derivados de

petrleo do porto de Santosforam excludos doclculo por serem

analisadosseparadamente

ESTIMATIVA

COMPOSIO DO MERCADO ALVO POR PRODUTO


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COMPOSIO DO MERCADO ALVO POR PRODUTO

* Esprito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo, Paran, Santa Catarina** Soda caustica, leo vegetal, Outros produtos qumicos, outros graneis lquidosFonte: Agncia Nacional dos Transportes Aquavirios, entrevistas, Consultant

2005, milhes de toneladas

MovimentaesSantosA fragmentao excessiva das movimentaes em produtos

diferentes afeta negativamente a produtividade dos terminaisAs movimentaes de outros portos so mais difceis de sercapturadas em virtude do custo da inteira cadeia logstica

Fertili-zantes

Soja Enxofre Trigo Sal Acar Mercadoalvo 2005

4,6

3,

4

1,0

14,0

Paranagu35%

Granislquidos**

% do mercadode referncia 5535 20 55 9539 4

% das movi-mentaestotais deregio*

2233 24 7 58 1

Santos51%

Outrosportos14%

100

ESTIMATIVA

Movimentaesoutros


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UTILIZAO DE CAPACIDADE NOS PRINCIPAISPORTOS CONCORRENTES

2005, % da capacidade nominal de carga/descarga

FertilizantesFertilizantes 5252

Soja

FertilizantesTrigo

Acar

Soja

FertilizantesTrigo

Acar

5656114114

6161

147147

7575

SojaSoja 6464

Soja e acar

Fertilizantes

Soja e acar

Fertilizantes

8080

SantosSantos

TubaroTubaro

VitriaVitria

ParanaguParanagu

Fonte: Fertimport, entrevistas, Consultant

Produtos com provveistenses de capacidadeProdutos com provveistenses de capacidade

ESTIMATIVA

Os valores se referem aospicos mensais de

utilizao de capacitaopara levar emconsiderao asazonalidade

No foram consideradasexpanses da capacidadeexistente

Os valores se referem aospicos mensais de

utilizao de capacitaopara levar emconsiderao asazonalidade

No foram consideradasexpanses da capacidadeexistente

NO EXAUSTIVO

PROPOSTA DE VALOR DO TERMINAL


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Qualificador

Qualificador

Infra-estrutura/equipamentosInfra-estrutura/equipamentos

Localizao geogrficaLocalizao geogrfica

AcessoAcesso

PROPOSTA DE VALOR DO TERMINAL

Diferenc

iador

Diferenc

iador

Inferior em paridade Superior

Desempenho

Integrao logstica(ferrovia, etc.)

Integrao logstica(ferrovia, etc.)

Parceria/

relacionamentosDemanda cativaTraders

Parceria/

relacionamentosDemanda cativaTraders

PreoEficincia operaoProdutividade

PreoEficincia operaoProdutividade

??

De uma maneirageral, ao terminalno possui nenhumdiferencial em suaproposta de valor

A precificaopoderia ser um dosdiferenciadores,entretanto, os portosvizinhos teriamincentivos pararetaliar (custo

marginal, flegofinanceiro)

De uma maneirageral, ao terminalno possui nenhumdiferencial em suaproposta de valor

A precificaopoderia ser um dosdiferenciadores,entretanto, os portosvizinhos teriamincentivos pararetaliar (custo

marginal, flegofinanceiro)

Fonte: Fertimport, entrevistas, Consultant

CONCEITUAL


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CASO SEPETIBA

1998

2001

* Valor de 2000Fonte: Clippings, Consultant

Objetivos do investimento

Descrio do projeto de SepetibaInvestimento de US$ 35-40 milhesCapacidade de movimentao a regime: 1.000.000

TEU'sEstimativa de volumes iniciais: 140.000 TEU's

Descrio do projeto de Sepetiba

Investimento de US$ 35-40 milhesCapacidade de movimentao a regime: 1.000.000

TEU'sEstimativa de volumes iniciais: 140.000 TEU's

Antes

Santos

Rio de Janeiro

Depois

Santos

Rio de Janeiro

Sepetiba

Preos de movimentao

US$/TEU

Santos Rio deJaneiro

Sepetiba

Volumes movimentados

milhares de TEUs

Santos Rio deJaneiro

Sepetiba

O nvel de ociosidade dos terminais decontainers passou de ~20% em 1999 para~40% em 2001Queda estimada dos preos dentre 15-25%aps a entrada

O nvel de ociosidade dos terminais decontainers passou de ~20% em 1999 para~40% em 2001Queda estimada dos preos dentre 15-25%aps a entrada

n.d.

n.d.

INVESTIMENTOS DE EXPANSO: COMPARAO


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INVESTIMENTOS DE EXPANSO: COMPARAOTERMINAL vs. TERMINAIS J EXISTENTES

* A preciso do valor do investimento a considerar de +/- 25%** Energia eltrica, gua potvel, comunicao, etc.Fonte: Assessoria de empreendimentos, Consultant

R$ milhes, base 99*

Sistemacorreiastranspor-tadoras

Armazm Projeto,gerencia-mento, eoutras

Total

21 15

5

terminal projeto "greenfield" Terminais j existentes - modernizao

26

40

Projeto egerencia-mentodaconstru-o

19

Redesde infra-estrutura geral**

Infra-estrutura civl

Armazm

Sistemacorreiastranspor-tadoras

TotalInstala-es deatracao

9

43

15

10142

11

22

65

12

Limpeza epreparaoda rea

Ferrovias erodovias

Carregador

Dolfins/drag.

23,2

EXEMPLO: T. DE SOJA

ANLISE DE SENSIBILIDADE: PROJETO


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ANLISE DE SENSIBILIDADE: PROJETOGREENFIELD DE EXPANSO DO PORTO

NPV, R$ milhes

0,70,7 1,41,4 2,12,1 2,82,8 3,53,5Estas movimentaespodem ser absorvidas porum nico pier

Milhes detoneladasmovimentadas

Captura do mercado-alvo %

Desconto vs.preos atuais

%

30

20

10

0

5 10 15 20 25

(127,7)(127,7) (104,0)(104,0) (80,3)(80,3) (56,7)(56,7) (33,0)(33,0)

(121,9)(121,9) (92,3)(92,3) (62,8)(62,8) (33,2)(33,2) (3,7)(3,7)

(116,0)(116,0) (80,6)(80,6) (45,2)(45,2) (9,7)(9,7) 25,725,7

(110,1)(110,1) (68,8)(68,8) (27,6)(27,6) 13,713,7 55,055,0

ESTIMATIVA

Considerando omontante deinvestimentos,parece ser muitodifcil viabilizar aexpanso do porto

Considerando omontante deinvestimentos,parece ser muitodifcil viabilizar aexpanso do porto

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