Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010 Global Oil Plenary...
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Transcript of Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010 Global Oil Plenary...
1
CERAWEEK 2010Global Oil Plenary
José Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoPetrobras’s CEOMarch 9th, 2010
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
DISCLAIMER
2
SCENARIOS FOR OIL DEMAND
(MM
bpd
)
How to fulfill the gap of oil production in the future
• Expansion of conventional resources in high potential regions
Iraq, Saudi Arabia, West Africa, Caspian Sea
• Expansion of conventional resources in little-explored areas North Africa, Siberia, other areas in the Middle East
• Expansion of production in Greenfield areas and/or environmentally sensitive areas Pre-Salt, Arctic, Ultra deep water (USA)
• Expansion of production of non conventional oils Oil Sands (Canada), Shale Oil (USA),OrinocoStrip (Venezuela), Synthetic products (XTL)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Observed decline
SUPPLY CHALLENGES
3
• Higher depth• Reservoir maturity • Non conventional resources• Extreme climate conditions
• Rigs and equipments• Human resources• Environmental constraints • Regulatory environment• Geopolitics• Financial resources
NEW DEMANDS FOR SUPPLIERS
New Barrels
Supply Challenges
•New engines• Alternative energy sources• Improvements in logistics• Scale of operations
Demand Adjustment
Expansion of production in greenfield areas and/or environmentally sensitive areas
Expansion of production of non conventional oils
4
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
Source: Business as Usual Scenario Petrobras
o The demand for oil will continue to be predominant in 2030, however, biofuels will present the highest growth rate
515
685
2008 2030
+0.7% p.a.
+1.3% p.a.
+1.8% p.a.
+1.2% p.a.
+1.4% p.a.
+5.3% p.a.
+4.2% p.a.
+1.1% p.a.20082008
20302030
0,4%0,5%
33%
22%
26%
6%6%
7%
29%
22%
29%
6%
7%1%6%
1%
Q BTU
s
Change Change per annumper annum
Biomass
Solar, windgeothermal
Biofuels
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
+1.3% +1.3% p.yp.y..
5
StepsTechnology Evolution
2006 - 2010 2011 - 2015 2016 - 2021Dissemination of technologyDeployment of technology
Prototype (Demonstration) Research & Development Recombinant microorganism - C5 and C6 fermentation
Cellulose production
Business StrategySynergy with Distillery - Mill
Next Generation Ethanol
• World• Brazil
DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT GENERATION ETHANOL PRODUCTION PROCESSES
Economic efficiency
Trends:
o On the short term: investment is concentrated on ethanol from 1st generation from sugar cane
o On the long term: increases in Research and Development will help to develop 2nd generation ethanol
6
SHARE OF LIGHT VEHICLES SALES BY ENGINE TECHNOLOGY
Source: Business as Usual Scenario Petrobras7
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2009 20 30 2009 20 30 2009 20 30
ICE Gasoline ICE Flexfuel ICE DieselHybrid Plug-in Electric
1.335
2324424
1.500
2523522
1.540
25116185
1.493
26516894
1.684
27416396
1.778
277142101
1.792
273126110
1.855
321124100
1,971
31614197
2.680
634
210
131
3.920
1.177
409
223
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ..... 2013 2020.....
9.7% p.y.
2,4002,3012,2972,2172,0202,0371,8101,635
7.7% p.y.
3,655
5,729
Oil production - Brazil Gas production - Brazil Oil production - International Gas production - International
2,525
o Petrobras' production growth will contribute to supply the oil demand
PETROBRAS’ PRODUCTION GROWTH
8
Petrobras Total Production (x 1000 boe/d)
1,183
Pre-Salt
152 Pre-Salt
5.6% p.y.
9
THE PRE-SALT REGION
Legend:
Drilled wells (BR non operator)Drilled wells (BR operator)Pre-Salt reservoirsProduction fieldsExploratory blocks
Total Area: 149,000 km2Area Under Concession: 41,772 km2 (28%)
Area Not Under Concession: 107,228 km² (72%)Area With Petrobras Interest: 35,739 km2 (24%)
10
18%
20%
36%
26%
Gathering Completion
Drilling Units
PRE-SALT CAPEX DISTRIBUTION
CO2 separation / capture technology
Offshore logistical hub
Floating LNGOffshore gas
storage in salt caves
Offshore produced fluid handling hubs
Water-alternating-gas (HC or CO2)
injectionExtended-reach
and deviated wells (salt)
Dry completion systems (SPAR, TLP, FPDSO, …)
Reservoir Characterization
CO2 storage in saline aquifers,
depleted fields, salt caves
Deepwater CALM buoy
Flow Assurance and formation
damage control
PLANSAL - Pre-Salt Development Master Plan
MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS UNDER EVALUATION
Pre-Salt Definitive
Development
11
There will be no regulatory changes in the areas under concession, including the pre-salt area already granted
Petrobras 100%
Petrobras Operator
Other companies trough Bidding Process
Transfer of Rights with compensation
Production Sharing
AgreementPre-salt
andStrategic Areas
NEW REGULATORY MODEL
Other AreasCurrent
Concession Model
12
FINAL REMARKS
• Challenging Environments• Higher Costs• High level of uncertainty
• Existing stock of appliances x pace of substitution• Technology Development• Policy Incentives and Regulation
New Barrels
DemandAdjustment
Petrobras in Petrobras in thethe GulfGulf ofof MexicoMexico
• First FPSO and Shuttle Tanker in the US GoM:Cascade and Chinook Fields operated by Petrobras 1st oil in mid 2010
• Technologies that are new to the US GoM:FSHR - Free Standing Hybrid RisersSTMZ - Single Trip Multi-Zone Fracturing of Wells
• Strong presence in Lower Tertiary Discoveries:Cascade, Chinook, St Malo, Stones and Tiber
15
Thank You