Approach for Mapping Flooding Risk near Lake · PDF fileA Probabilistic Approach for Mapping...
Transcript of Approach for Mapping Flooding Risk near Lake · PDF fileA Probabilistic Approach for Mapping...
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Going Beyond LAMP: A Probabilistic Approach for Mapping Flooding Risk near Lake Okeechobee, Florida
Guillermo Simón, P.E., CFM Taylor Engineering, Inc.
Mark Vieira, P.E., FEMA Region IV
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Lake Okeechobee—Where is it?
Photo: Google Maps
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Lake Okeechobee
• Largest lake in SE US
• “Big water”
• ~ 730 mi² / ~143 mi
• Avg depth 9 ft
• Greater Everglades
• Water supply
• Flood control
Photo: Google Earth
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Lake Okeechobee
Everglades Agricultural Areas
Everglades National
Park
Caloosahatchee River
St. LucieCanal
Kissimmee River
Photo: Google Earth
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History of Herbert Hoover Dike
Source: USACE
Areas damaged by 1926 and
1928 hurricanes
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History of Herbert Hoover Dike
Over time, the HHD’s uses evolved to provide water supply, increased protection from flooding, and navigation.
What began as a levee built to protect from floods became a dam…
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FEMA Flood Insurance Study
• Mapping issues
Outdated maps (over 30 years old in many cases)
Maps lack consistency across county lines
Many areas with “undefined” flood elevations
Inaccurate flood risk identification
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FEMA Flood Insurance Study
ZONE B
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FEMA Flood Insurance Study
ZONE A
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FEMA Flood Insurance Study
How much protection from flooding does HHD
provide here?
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44 CFR 65.10
• Levees must comply with design, operation, maintenance, and freeboard requirements
• Levee accreditation:Reduced flood risk
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Issues
• HHD’s geotechnical condition Serious breach threat
Levee made from silts, clays, sand, limestone…and whatever was available at the edge of the lake
No compaction
No seepage control
• Failure mechanisms
Piping
Erosion from wave action
• Lack of emergency spillway capacity
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Main issue: internal erosion or piping
Source: USACE
Source: USACE/BCI Engineers
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Wave erosion
Source: USACE
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Issue• Lack of emergency spillway capacity
Spillways may lower the lake’s elevation at about 1 in/week
Water may come in 6 times faster than the USACE can release it
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Issue• LORS 2008 – Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule
Agreed upon by the state and federal governments
Goal: to maintain water level between 12.5 and 15.5 feet (NGVD)
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FEMA Flood Insurance Study
Challenges
• Define and measure failure risk
• Determine mapping method
• Model for the nation?
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FEMA Flood Insurance Study
In the past, the levee was simply
“removed”
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FEMA Levee Analysis and Mapping Approach (LAMP)
Goal
To provide guidance
for assessing flood
risk for non-
accredited levee
systems.
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FEMA team:
Taylor Engineering
AECOM
University of North Florida
(Effort began in 2011)
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Measure the risk
• 2-D dam-break modeling analysis
• Joint probability method analysis
• Flood risk mapping
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You have seen this before.
The analysis resembles FEMA’s modern approach to calculating
coastal flood risk.
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Dam-break analysis
• Use of MIKE software
• USACE-defined reaches
• LiDAR
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Lake Okeechobee’s storage volume
How does the lake’s storage volume compare with other dams?
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Largest reservoir in the U.S.
Lake Mead
Hoover Dam
Gross storage volume:
29 Million ac-ft
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Lake Okeechobee’s storage volume
Upstream boundary condition
(~7th largest reservoir by storage in the country)
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MIKE21 model mesh
• “Sunny day” break
• Exceeds 400,000 nodes
• Mesh is subdivided by model reach
• Roughness based on 60-ft Manning’s n grid
• Mesh adds major hydraulic features (roads, canals)
• Starting water surface elevations
For FEMA study: 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ft NAVD
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MIKE21 Model Mesh
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MIKE21 Model Mesh
Model mesh nodes and elevations (Reaches 2, 3)
NN
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Dam-break model results – Reach 2
Note: Inundation
limited to canals near
breach
Reach 2
HHD Breach
Maximum WSE,Lake Elev.14 ft NAVD
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Dam-break model results – Reach 2
Reach 2
HHD Breach
Maximum WSE,Lake Elev.17 ft NAVD
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Dam-break model results – Reach 2
Reach 2
HHD Breach
Maximum WSE,Lake Elev.20 ft NAVD
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Dam-break model results – Reach 2
Reach 2
HHD Breach
Maximum WSE,Lake Elev.25 ft NAVD
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Simulation time
• Simulations must reach peak elevations
Figure: USACE
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Statistical analysis
The statistical analysis helps produce the 1% annual chance flood elevation or flood depth. Three components:
1. Stage-frequency analysis for Lake Okeechobee
2. Dike fragility curves for every reach
3. Joint probability analysis
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Stage-frequency
Figure: USACE MRR
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Fragility curves
Reaches 4, 5, 8
Figure: USACE MRR
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Joint probability method analysis
Goal: calculate the 1% annual chance flood elevation
Event A Dike failure at given elevation
Event B Lake reaching a given elevation
Failure frequency curve Combined probability of failure for entire HHD P(A|B)
Failure rate (events per year) Failure rate [events/year] P(A∩B)
• P(A∩B) = P(A|B)P(B)
Allocation of total dike failure rate
𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖,𝑗 =𝑃𝑖,𝑗
𝑖=1𝐴..8 𝑃𝑖,𝑗
× 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑗 where TotalRatej = P(A∩B)
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Joint probability analysisLake’s stage-frequency curve
P(B)
Failure rate curveP(A∩B)
HHD failure frequency curve
P(A|B)
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Joint probability analysis
Allocated failure rate(pi,j x Total rate)
Reach failure probability (pi,j)
𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖,𝑗 =𝑃𝑖,𝑗
𝑖=1𝐴..8 𝑃𝑖,𝑗
× 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑗
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Statistical analysis
Histograms of flooded depths
Gaussianredistribution
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4x 10
-3
Flood Depth Bin
Accu
mu
late
d R
ate
Histogram of Element 128456
3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.90
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4x 10
-3
Flood Depth Redistribution Bins
Rate
s
Gaussian Redistribution of Accumulated Rate
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Statistical analysis
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
1
2
3
4x 10
-3
Flood Depth (ft)
Rate
s
Data
Gaussian Redistribution
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
0.005
0.01
0.015
Flood Depth (ft)
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
ate
NODE 128456 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Data
GaussianCumulative density curve
Rate 0.01 times per year (1% annual chance event)
Flood depth = 1.9 ft
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Statistical analysis
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Floodplain mapping
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Floodplain mapping
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Final Comments and Conclusions
• Cooperation between FEMA/USACE to identify risk
• The HHD cannot be certified
Risk is better understood
• This method has been widely used in coastal studies
• First time that a probabilistic method with 2D flood modeling has been applied to levee/dam failure for a FEMA FIS (maybe)
• Improvements:
Probabilistic breach evolution
Seiche and wind setup in the lake
Update fragility curves
Increase number of dam-break simulations
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By the way…
• The Herbert Hoover Dike is undergoing repairs
Cutoff wall and seepage berm
Estimated completion in 2030
Figure: USACE
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Acknowledgment
• Study performed by the Watershed IV Alliance for FEMA
• Co-authors and modelers Terry Hull, P.E., (formerly with Taylor Engineering)
Ao Yi, PhD, P.E., (formerly with AECOM)
Maurice Vaughan, P.E., Taylor Engineering
• Technical Steering Committee Donald Resio, Ph.D, University of North Florida
Arthur Miller, Ph.D, P.E., AECOM
• David Divoky (1942 – 2012)
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