Applying chaos and complexity theory to language variation analysis
Applying Complexity Concepts to Enhance Innovation …ccer.org/service/documents/Michael...
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DevelopmentalEvaluation:
Applying Complexity Conceptsto Enhance Innovation and Use
Michael Quinn Patton
Michael Quinn Patton
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Program Evaluation Quality Assurance SummitSeptember 21, 2010
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5 types of DE
1. Ongoing Development
Development
vs.
Improvement
Michael Quinn Patton 2
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Blandin Community Leadership Program
Michael Quinn Patton 3
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Beyond Formative and Summative to
Developmental Evaluation
as an option in the repertoire of approaches
Michael Quinn Patton 4
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Michael Quinn Patton
Challenge:
Matching the evaluation process and design to the nature of the situation:
Contingency-basedEvaluation
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Michael Quinn Patton
Conditions that challenge traditional model-testing evaluation
• High innovation• Development• High uncertainty• Dynamic• Emergent• Systems Change
AdaptiveManagement
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Michael Quinn Patton
Mintzberg on StrategyTwo types of strategy: Intended & Emergent
Unrealized
Strategy
Intended
Strategy Deliberate Strategy
Realized
Emergent Strategy
Strategy
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First DE Type
Ongoing development in adapting a project, program, strategy, policy, or other innovative initiative to new conditions in complex dynamic systems.
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5 Types of DE2. Pre-formative development of a potentially
scalable innovation to the point where it is ready for traditional formative and summative evaluation; pre-formative developmental evaluation works with emerging ideas and visionary hopes in a period of exploration to shape them into a potential model that is a more fully conceptualized, potentially scalable intervention.
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As models emerge out of exploratory and innovative initiatives, some may move into more traditional formative and summative evaluation to determine scalability and generalizability, while others remain in developmental mode, either undergoing further development or continuous experimentation in the search for new models.
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5 Types of DE
3. Adapting effective general principles to a new context as ideas and innovations are taken from elsewhere and developed within a new setting, the work of developmental evaluation in the dynamic middle between top-down and bottom-up forces of change.
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Michael Quinn Patton
Fundamental Issue:How the World Is Changed
Top-down dissemination of
“proven models”
versus
Bottoms-up adaptive management
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Michael Quinn Patton
Models vs. Principles
Identifying proven principles for adaptive management
(bottoms-up approach)
versus
Identifying and disseminating
proven models
(top down approach)
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Michael Quinn Patton 14
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Michael Quinn Patton 16
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5 Types of DE
4. Major systems change and cross-scale developmental evaluation, providing feedback about how major systems change is unfolding, evidence of emergent tipping points, and/or how an innovation is or may need to be changed and adapted as it is taken to scale, that is, as its principles are shared and disseminated in an effort to have broader impact.
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Horizontal scaling across systems or vertical scaling to broader systems may involve more than adaptation; these dissemination and scaling processes can evolve an essentially new development, the emergence of which can be documented and analyzed as part of a developmental evaluation.
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Michael Quinn Patton
Systems
• Parts are interdependent such a change in one part changes all parts
• The whole is greater than the sum of the parts
• Focus on interconnected relationships
• Systems are made up of sub-systems and function within larger systems
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Systems Thinking
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Michael Quinn Patton
Understanding the
Elephant
from
a Systems Perspective
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Michael Quinn Patton
The relationship between what goes in and what comes out
What conceptual framework informs yourtheory of change?
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Michael Quinn Patton
Rehabitiation Program Example
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Michael Quinn Patton
Logic Model for Rehabilitation Employment Program1. Program reaches out to those in need of employment
2. Eligible recruits enter and attend the program (participation)
3. Learn needed skills (increased knowledge)
4. Develop deeper commitment to work (attitude change)
5. Engage in effective job search strategies (behavior change)
6. Get and retain a living wage (desired outcome)
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Michael Quinn Patton
Systems web showing possible influence linkages for a disabled person seeking employment
Teachers/ other adults
Disabledperson’s
attitudes &behaviors
Person’sfamily
members
Person’sWork
associates
Training program
staff
Person’s peer group
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Michael Quinn Patton
Using Different System Lenses to Understand a “particular” System
Biologic System• Emergence• Coordination/synergy• Structure, Process, Pattern• Vitality
Sociologic System• Relationships• Conversations• Interdependence• Loose-tight coupling• Meaning/sense
Mechanical / Physical System• Flow• Temporal Sequencing• Spatial Proximities• Logistics• Information
Economic System Inputs/Outputs Cost/Waste/Value/Benefits Customers/Suppliers
Political System• Power• Governance• Citizenship• Equity
Anthropologic System• Values• Culture/Milieu
Information System•Access•Speed•Fidelity/utility•Privacy/security•Storage
Psychological System•Organizing•Forces Field•Ecological/Behaviour Settings
SYSTEMDIMENSIONS
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Michael Quinn Patton
5
Map Systems as Webs
Source: Digital Capital: Harnessing the Power of Business Webs,By Don Tapscott, David Ticoll and Alex Lowy
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5 Types of DE
5. Developing a rapid response in the face of a sudden major change or a crisis, like a natural disaster or financial melt-down, exploring real time solutions and generating innovative and helpful interventions for those in need.
• Dealing with high uncertainty, turbulence, turmoil, high stakes, and often conflict.
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resultSearch Booksresultoe9S6SgfGeneral RPP1PP1ACfU3U1E
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Refugee Camps
Michael Quinn Patton 36
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Michael Quinn Patton
Taking Emergence Seriously
• Beyond “unanticipated consequences” to genuine openness
37
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Michael Quinn Patton
Seeing Through A Complexity Lens
“You don't see something until you have the right metaphor to let you perceive it”. Thomas Kuhn
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Michael Quinn Patton
Complex Nonlinear Dynamics• Nonlinear: Small actions can have large
reactions. “The Butterfly Wings Metaphor”
• Emergent: Self-organizing, Attractors
• Dynamic: Interactions within, between, and among subsystems and parts within systems can volatile, changing
• Getting to Maybe: Uncertainty, unpredictable, uncontrollable
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Michael Quinn Patton
Getting to Maybe:How the World Is Changed
• Frances Westley,• Brenda Zimmerman• Michal Quinn Patton
• Random House Canada, 2006
Michael Q. Patton -- Bush 201040
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Michael Quinn Patton
“A Leader's Framework for Decision Making” by David J. Snowden and Mary E. Boone, Harvard Business Review,
November, 2007:
Wise executives tailor their approach to fit the complexity of the circumstances they face.
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Michael Quinn Patton
Conceptual Options
• Simple
• Complicated
• Complex
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Michael Quinn Patton
Situation AnalysisMatrix:
Mapping the Territory
Degree ofCertainty
Close to Far from
Clo
se to
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Michael Quinn Patton
Simple Space
CertaintyClose to Far from
Clo
se to Simple
Plan, control
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Michael Quinn Patton
Following a Recipe A Rocket to the Moon Raising a Child
Complicated Complex
The recipe is essential
Recipes are tested to assure replicability of later efforts
No particular expertise; knowing how to cook increases success
Recipes produce standard products
Certainty of same results every time
Simple
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Michael Quinn Patton
Technically Complicated
CertaintyClose to Far from
Clo
se to Simple
Plan, controlTechnically Complicated
Experiment, coordinate expertise
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Michael Quinn Patton
Following a Recipe A Rocket to the Moon Raising a Child• Formulae are critical
and necessary
• Sending one rocket increases assurance that next will be ok
• High level of expertise in many specialized fields + coordination
• Rockets similar in critical ways
• High degree of certainty of outcome
Complicated Complex
The recipe is essential
Recipes are tested to assure replicability of later efforts
No particular expertise; knowing how to cook increases success
Recipes produce standard products
Certainty of same results every time
Simple
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Michael Quinn Patton
Socially Complicated
CertaintyClose to Far from
Clo
se to Simple
Plan, controlTechnically ComplicatedExperiment, coordinate expertise
SociallyComplicatedBuild relationships, create common ground
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Michael Quinn Patton
Socially complicatedsituations
pose the challenge
of coordinating and
integrating
many players
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Michael Quinn Patton
Know When Your Challenges Are In the Zone of Complexity
CertaintyClose to Far from
Clo
se to Simple
Plan, control
Zone of Complexity
Technically ComplicatedExperiment, coordinate expertise
SociallyComplicatedBuild
relationships, create common ground
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Michael Quinn Patton
Following a Recipe A Rocket to the Moon Raising a Child
Sending one rocket increases assurance that next will be ok
High level of expertise in many specialized fields + coordination
Rockets similar in critical ways
High degree of certainty of outcome
• Formulae have only a limited application
• Raising one child gives no assurance of success with the next
• Expertise can help but is not sufficient; relationships are key
• Every child is unique
• Uncertainty of outcome remains
Complicated Complex
The recipe is essential
Recipes are tested to assure replicability of later efforts
No particular expertise; knowing how to cook increases success
Recipes produce standard products
Certainty of same results every time
Simple
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Michael Quinn Patton
Following a Recipe A Rocket to the Moon Raising a Child• Formulae are critical
and necessary
• Sending one rocket increases assurance that next will be ok
• High level of expertise in many specialized fields + coordination
• Separate into parts and then coordinate
• Rockets similar in critical ways
• High degree of certainty of outcome
• Formulae have only a limited application
• Raising one child gives no assurance of success with the next
• Expertise can help but is not sufficient; relationships are key
• Can’t separate parts from the whole
• Every child is unique
• Uncertainty of outcome remains
Complicated Complex
The recipe is essential
Recipes are tested to assure replicability of later efforts
No particular expertise; knowing how to cook increases success
Recipe notes the quantity and nature of “parts” needed
Recipes produce standard products
Certainty of same results every time
Simple
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Michael Quinn Patton Michae
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Michael Quinn Patton
“A Leader's Framework for Decision Making” by David J. Snowden and Mary E. Boone, Harvard Business Review,
November, 2007:
Wise executives tailor their approach to fit the complexity of the circumstances they face.
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Wise evaluators tailor their approach to fit the complexity of the circumstances they face.
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5 Types of DE
1. Ongoing development and adaptation
2. Preformative evaluation to support exploration and innovation
3. Supporting local adaptation of general principles to navigate top-down and bottom-up forces for change
4. Evaluating major systems change
5. Evaluating in turbulent, disaster situations
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What role can evaluation play with complex dynamic innovations?
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Challenge:
Matching the evaluation process and design to the nature of the situation:
Contingency-basedEvaluation
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Michael Quinn Patton
ReferencesDevelopmental Evaluation: Applying Complexity
Concepts to Enhance Innovation and Use. Guilford Press, June 2010.
Getting to Maybe: How the World Is Changed?
Frances Westley, Brenda Zimmerman, Michael Q. Patton, Random House Canada, 2006
Utilization-Focused Evaluation, 4th ed.,
Michael Quinn Patton, Sage, 2008.
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