Applied tax gap analysis in the United Kingdom - Its use in tax administration, and future research...
-
Upload
maud-taylor -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
1
Transcript of Applied tax gap analysis in the United Kingdom - Its use in tax administration, and future research...
-
Applied tax gap analysis in the United Kingdom- Its use in tax administration, and future researchMick ThackrayKnowledge, Analysis & IntelligenceEnforcement and ComplianceHM Revenue & Customs
June 2012
-
How does HMRC use their tax gaps?Annual publication
HMRC Vision & Strategic Objective 1
Performance Management
Strategic resource allocation
Evaluation
Future work
-
Defining the tax gapWe define the tax gap as the difference between the tax that is paid and the tax that we consider should be paid. It therefore includes amounts we consider should be due in accordance with the spirit of the law as well as the letter of the law.This definition is a product of what we use tax gap analysis for to assess the threats to the tax base. Differences over the interpretation of the law can lead to substantial losses in tax against expected receipts and increase HMRCs operational costs so are an important part of the picture.
-
The tax gapOn September 21st 2011 the latest estimate of the UK tax gap was published: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/mtg-2011.htm It related to 2009-10 and amounted to 35bn or 8% of theoretical liabilities. This is the net tax gap ie after HMRCs compliance activities.Tax gap broken down by behaviour
Chart2
0.14
0.12
0.14
0.11
0.16
0.12
0.13
0.07
Error7%
Legalinterpretation14%
Non-payment13%
Avoidance14%
Evasion 12%
Failure to take reasonable care 11%
Criminalattacks16%
Hidden economy 12%
Sheet1
Avoidance 14%14.0%
Evasion 12%12.0%
Legal interpretation 14%14%
Failure to take reasonable care 11%11%
Criminal attacks 16%16.0%
Hidden economy 12%12.0%
Non-payment 13%13.0%
Error 7%7.0%
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Hidden economy 7.5%
Criminal attacks12.5%
Failure to take reasonable care 15%
Evasion 17.5%
Avoidance 17.5%
Non-payment 7.5%
Legal interpretation 15%
Error7.5%
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Tax gap by taxIn 09/10 VAT had the largest tax gap followed by CT. IT has the smallest tax gap largely because the bulk is collected through PAYE. This is not unexpected as research shows that tax gaps are higher for taxes that do not operate withholding regimes where there is less opportunity to understate income levels. The tax gap for income tax paid by the self employed is much higher
Chart1
0.138
0.065
0.058
0.117
Tax Gaps by Tax 2008/09
Sheet1
VAT13.80%
Excises6.50%
IT/NICS/CGT5.80%
CT11.70%
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
PublicationPublished in full in September each yearGenuine area of public interestAllows external analysts to understand - and challenge - methodologyOfficial Statistics covered by the UK Statistics & Registration Service ActCurrent administrations transparency agenda:Allows public, and parliament, to monitor HMRCs performanceInforms public debate on taxation (fiscal deficit and austerity regime)Counters special interest claims
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/mtg-2011.pdfhttp://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/mtg-annex2011.pdfhttp://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/vat-gap.pdfhttp://www.hmrc.gov.uk/research/taxgap-workingpaper.pdf
-
HMRC Vision and Strategic Objective 1HMRC VisionWe will close the tax gap, our customers will feel that the tax system is simple for them and even-handed, and we will be seen as a highly professional and efficient organisation
Strategic Objective 1
Maximise revenue to close the tax gapOur objective is to provide the money for public services by maximising revenue to close the tax gap and improving the extent to which individuals and businesses receive the credits and payments to which they are entitled
-
Tax gap - trendsOverall the tax gap fell in percentage terms between 2004/05 and 2007/08. It rose again in 2008/09 largely as a result of the increasing VAT gap driven by payment problems arising from the recession.Note: VAT Gap figures revised in December 2011 (http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/vat-gap.pdf), but tax gap totals not yet adjusted.
Chart1
0.16
0.061
0.054
0.139
Tax Gaps by Tax 2008/09
Chart2
0.27
0.14
0.1
0.09
0.06
% tax gap by country
Chart3
0.1050.085
0.1390.083
0.1210.08
0.110.074
0.130.081
0.1060.079
VAT
Total
Trends in % tax gap
Sheet1
VAT16.00%
Excises6.10%
IT/NICS/CGT5.40%
CT13.90%
Mexico (2004)27%
USA (2001)14%
Sweden (2001-05)10%
UK (2008-09)9%
Denmark 2007)6%
2004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/10
VAT10.50%13.90%12.10%11.00%13%10.60%
Total9%8.30%8.00%7.40%8.10%7.90%
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Performance managementPerformance Management FrameworkReporting framework for HMRC senior managementPerformance against Strategic Objective 1 reported in tax gap currency:Direct effects of interventions cash to bankIndirect effects (Future Revenue Benefit): deterrence and prevention effectsRevenue protection: maintenance of tax gaps, eg repayments refused, loopholes closedTax gaps themselves are not a target or performance measureTax Compliance Risk OverviewComprehensive assessment of compliance risks and issues for HMRC and HM Treasury senior managersFinancial dimension of risk score based on tax gap estimatesLink to HM Treasurys fiscal risk management
-
VAT: How has the UK done in recent years?Source: Provisional VAT gap estimates: Official Statistics Release, HM Revenue & Customs December 2011 (NB: mid-range MTIC estimates)
billion2005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/11VTTL84.788.392.191.779.994.7VAT Gap11.710.710.111.98.59.2
Chart2
0.15425531912002/03
0.11607142862003/04
0.10455104552004/05
0.13813459270.0968122786
0.12117780290.0956964892
0.10966340930.0960912052
0.12977099240.1161395856
0.10638297870.090738423
0.09714889120.0892291447
VAT Gap
VAT Gap. less MTIC
VAT Gap
Sheet2
YearVTTLVAT GapVAT GapMTICMTICMTICVAT Gap. less MTICVAT Gap. less MTICVAT Gap. less MTICVAT Gap. less MTICVAT Gap. less MTICVAT Gap. less MTIC
2002/0375.211.615.4%
2003/0478.49.111.6%
2004/0581.38.510.5%
2005/0684.711.713.8%343.58.77.78.210.3%9.1%9.7%
2006/0788.310.712.1%22.52.258.78.28.459.9%9.3%9.6%
2007/0892.110.111.0%11.51.259.18.68.859.9%9.3%9.6%
2008/0991.711.913.0%11.51.2510.910.410.6511.9%11.3%11.6%
2009/1079.98.510.6%11.51.257.577.259.4%8.8%9.1%
20010/1194.79.29.7%0.510.758.78.28.459.2%8.7%8.9%
Sheet2
00
00
00
00
00
00
VAT Gap
VAT Gap. less MTIC
VAT Gap
Sheet1
HH VTTLReceipts (lagged)RatioGDPHH VTTLReceipts (lagged)HH VATVTTLReceiptsVTTL ratioGDPGDP growth
1973Q01529-30-614778919732,2941,47064%590,050YearVAT Gap
1973Q0254747914833719742,3882,509105%582,30398.7%2002/0315.6%
1973Q0358581013814711119752,6593,457130%578,68099.4%2003/0412.1%
1973Q0463364310214681319763,1073,771121%593,928102.6%2004/0511.6%
1974Q015825118814333919773,5744,272120%608,032102.4%2005/0614.7%
1974Q0262967610714600119784,1034,903119%627,669103.2%2006/0713.1%
1974Q0355963611414740619796,8387,979117%644,491102.7%2007/0812.5%
1974Q0461868611114555719809,88211,102112%631,07497.9%
1975Q01587737125146219198110,94911,882109%622,72298.7%
1975Q02640836131143756198211,98913,776115%635,756102.1%Year2002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/08
1975Q03690891129143408198313,19115,283116%658,798103.6%VAT Gap15.6%12.1%11.6%14.7%13.1%12.5%
1975Q04741993134145297198414,19518,558131%676,394102.7%
1976Q01700868124147987198515,58019,363124%700,740103.6%
1976Q02735907123146753198617,17921,332124%728,856104.0%
1976Q03800903113148087198718,86924,238128%762,107104.6%
1976Q048721093125151101198821,22827,217128%800,457105.0%
1977Q01813884109151520198923,23429,553127%818,719102.3%
1977Q028501050124150745199025,27130,931122%34.430.989.9%825,099100.8%
1977Q039231041113151857199129,10435,258121%39.735.388.7%813,61098.6%
1977Q049891297131153910199230,86237,215121%42.337.288.0%814,803100.1%
1978Q019441110118154747199332,34639,211121%44.139.289.0%832,910102.2%
1978Q029721185122156170199435,08641,722119%47.441.787.9%868,560104.3%
1978Q0310661236116157813199537,21343,054116%50.043.186.0%894,988103.0%
1978Q0411211372122158939199640,34146,644116%53.746.686.9%920,757102.9%
1979Q0110731177110157657199742,80450,585118%56.850.689.1%951,208103.3%
1979Q0211681511129164347199845,23752,304116%60.252.386.8%985,506103.6%
1979Q0322142314105160435199947,77256,395118%64.556.487.4%1,019,735103.5%
1979Q0423842977125162052200050,18258,503117%68.058.586.1%1,059,658103.9%
1980Q0123212583111160682200152,58061,026116%71.461.085.5%1,085,745102.5%
1980Q0223482734116157720200255,72863,451114%75.263.584.4%1,108,508102.1%
1980Q0325522774109157287200358,43069,075118%78.369.188.2%1,139,746102.8%
1980Q0426613011113155385200461,39273,021119%81.973.089.2%1,171,178102.8%
1981Q0125412677105154580200563,35972,855115%85.472.985.3%1,195,276102.1%
1981Q022618241792154758200665,67077,360118%88.977.487.0%1,229,196102.8%
1981Q0328182885102156732200768,48780,598118%92.380.687.4%1,266,680103.0%
1981Q0429723903131156652200851,63960,861118%91.777.184.1%1,275,674100.7%
1982Q0127993297118157337
1982Q0228533192112159257
1982Q0330703419111159194
1982Q0432673868118159968
1983Q0130863528114162336
1983Q0231343618115163548
1983Q0334033872114165482
1983Q0435684265120167432
1984Q0133263872116169016
1984Q0234144034118167826
1984Q0335944931137168590
1984Q0438615721148170962YearTotal HMRCIncome tax (2, 3)National Insurance Contributions (3, 4)Capital gains tax (5)VATCorporation tax (6)Petroleum revenue taxFuel dutiesTobacco dutiesSpirit dutyBeer dutiesWine dutiesCider & perry dutiesStamp dutiesBetting & gaming dutiesCustoms duties & leviesAir passenger dutyInsurance premium taxLandfill taxClimate change levyAggregates levyInheritance taxMisc
1985Q0136194526125172846
1985Q0237064461120175562
1985Q0340015167129175568
1985Q0442535209122176764
1986Q0140204955123179419
1986Q02411751751261814632001-02321767107994631683034610433204113102191777541919289919821556984143920428061861502555-2355-
1986Q03438858691341824612002-03324731109507645531596636252926895822147805522732935193615375491292190781621385418292472354-
1986Q04465453331151855132003-043438641139687245722256927528077117922786809323623044200615375451347194279122946078323392504-
1988Q01435258181341865302004-053710751229207809822837305833573128423314810323853101223315789661421219686423596727643342922-
1988Q02446054441221884972005-06397912130481855223042728564182920162343879592309307623081681091814212258905234373374432632591
1988Q03485365051341926372006-07423659143327872733813773604430821552358581492256307223852001339213912325971231480471232135451
1988Q04520464711241944432007-0845105314732410041052688059946383168024905809423743067264122014124148124561994230687768833938240
1988Q01489462491281976762008-09 (7)43861714766496928783978443427652566246128218235831272741244799414742659186222819547163342838-
1988Q0250296675133198608
1988Q0354967302133201368
1988Q0458096991120202805Personal taxes244,59256%
1989Q0154016962129203559VAT7844318%
1989Q0255607368133204838Corporation tax4533110%
1989Q0359707843131205043Excise duties4277410%
1989Q0463037380117205279Other27,4776%
1990Q0158797393126206986438617100%
1990Q0260787646126208078
1990Q0365028169126205606
1990Q0468127723113204429
1991Q0159707776130204244
1991Q0271608572120203565
1991Q0378369458121202793
1991Q0481389452116203008
1992Q0170688663123203283
1992Q0274429096122202796
1992Q03808610564131203801
1992Q0482668892108204923
1993Q0174259212124206178
1993Q0276529126119207116
1993Q03853410613124208906
1993Q04873410260117210710
1994Q0178849801124212969
1994Q02841710055119216000
1994Q03917211242123219001
1994Q04961310624111220590
1995Q01850810421122221346
1995Q02880910505119222548
1995Q03969611276116225059
1995Q041019910852106226035Year (liability)HouseholdsExemptGovernmentHousingCharitiesTotalVTTL
1996Q019209121741322281222008467,132101,65386,65629,79812,719701,131103,234
1996Q0296431057211022917867%14%12%4%2%100%
1996Q031045512313118230773
1996Q041103511585105232684
1997Q01983212066123234465
1997Q021031512318119236384
1997Q031110413355120238753
1997Q041155212846111241606
1998Q011040912337119243576
1998Q021085812778118245084
1998Q031170813660117247135
1998Q041226213529110249711
1999Q011113113540122251140
1999Q021159113755119253110
1999Q031206014507120256322
1999Q041299014593112259163
2000Q011182714290121262040
2000Q021221014294117264583
2000Q031258415332122265908
2000Q041356114585108267127
2001Q011235815008121270054
2001Q021278514707115270722
2001Q031325615982121271977
2001Q041418215329108272992
2002Q011311215779120274918
2002Q021363615171111276010
2002Q031401016721119277923
2002Q041497015780105279657
2003Q011365216529121281208
2003Q021425917047120283851
2003Q031467518169124285990
2003Q041584417330109288697
2004Q011438318039125289984
2004Q021504617707118292706
2004Q031538618831122293272
2004Q041657718449111295216
2005Q011494217342116296453
2005Q021556118188117298302
2005Q031583019033120299529
2005Q041702518293107300992
2006Q011535118021117304412
2006Q021616918731116306456
2006Q031655221058127307853
2006Q041759819550111310475
2007Q011601220123126312950
2007Q021676719301115315650
2007Q031717621327124318160
2007Q041853319850107319920
2008Q011684520077119321144
2008Q021732221227123321160
2008Q031747219526112319078
314292
Sheet1
47144305.3156439455
42523961.1841538925
31004071.7850887554
50074628.9732350052
41203836.7049829623
31914291.6372115287
51184508.1283073886
44043587.5811684028
38335012.8123433118
47914120.2104524401
53124328.1526055065
27433983.9058732292
51644396.798667508
37693644.1885807064
34044411.8223920132
53835069.581592683
40383666.8495661632
33574646.1061743091
51374276.8420795779
51064305.5415611823
34174490.6511578526
48634237.8059194972
51204211.4943609025
35465017.4477968483
54054519.831454304
43174105.2285800038
38185094.2786214259
50854481.7198842593
50144564.4273367205
36564987.2949180696
52794441.6148271826
54224573.7945197161
38064985.5180839462
58585067.5163466194
50664250.6834892559
36695074.0869165973
55944907.4121670892
47714622.0177055314
39255002.8680004695
53984945.1406698834
53234695.2946217673
35735147.1227283627
57164709.1807612619
54354699.9014986877
41815173.5560816363
59665286.0848240968
50534375.1088059283
35684990.0146226071
57965188.765836615
52594788.7261511639
39535280.6621791836
58675258.0205250378
51424679.3344743924
36985297.6855579205
62245258.4168970727
52364590.4045465882
45225285.1406007659
58394832.5510283768
55635002.8843895628
39275359.5893588105
63325909.7602804709
55535210.1051053821
38945165.0652632695
62295648.0909065086
53784833.5680154928
35645304.7299558386
67925471.8430896747
54655179.3899171596
44645143.0768862014
67345516.0478674183
59045460.298232643
31425232.8137073185
68305480.5714122458
54165237.4343498503
42835715.5390755279
70775861.9279042844
58175837.4608230157
41515681.5950333024
71845650.6799361882
56825823.2387425439
53055838.9023870154
74695703.2874395891
63426216.0173483759
35195687.4621718624
80346300.6481804995
56546039.245911403
43515684.2238880436
74255859.4440870002
62156365.0519383991
40675813.6117628714
74765462.1153712271
63476531.9362185708
50085854.500037616
76725976.2672563716
58886037.6971099088
48846404.4813991396
73695878.0157941997
5536.75968.2643153563
4435.66049.3702715075
7462.75785.075489379
6251.16572.845144992
4473.596615246226.5909520142
7713.85800.9172778852
6193.36409.0526952978
5125.65650.2805447928
7944.56372.3111478172
6152.46240.2665627731
4197.26300.3642161136
77116006.9310275931
55166114.3904878415
47946120.1462146928
79766382.7467538673
63806351.1886907042
43756466.5213350844
85416438.6228455059
66986776.6395277078
58196819.8755054883
85197011.0325242614
63246570.3262850765
4706.86580.942591743
85286806.292468261
64106759.8781011185
51856756.4077376039
87086379.2179332706
62756678.2517544082
43186418.6299272885
94566789.0077382939
63636895.8361418236
55066776.1803866251
89276975.6461116626
61346761.7579747774
47886403.4577506938
91157526.8444653274
60276652.4218089167
49466293.6393494585
105258099.0571956963
61656797.5410210673
45466603.4956854851
97026887.4531527672
53985819.9252523017
44375837.9179024109
79695795.4231208862
56265875.7769682352
39875737.2297116449
70654927.090090192
48815606.7109480234
41585333.9390434084
69684636.8453734732
4002640026
Rate cut
Unadjusted
Seasonally adjusted
m
Total VAT
Chart1
0
0
0
0
0
HMRC tax receipts 2008/09
Mick's chart
0
0
0
0
0
VTTL 2008/09
334132202196019601960
371125246
33658278
522210312
447164283196119611961
478155323
37884294
543209334
568185383196219621962
536180356
47297375
620256364
572183389196319631963
531183348
439111328
612252360
524184340196419641964
506180326
41388325
661272389
640210430196519651965
585204381
59089501
780302478
811241570196619661966
862218644
600127473
977348629
944319625196719671967
929349580
702171531
960391569
897307590196819681968
775279496
586148438
907374533
872318554196919691969
871308563
798171627
969384585
981318663197019701970
966339627
744169575
998443555
760310450197119711971
945285660
777172605
1024399625
877291586197219721972
799293506
614160454
773406367
710273437197319731973
653308345
463130333
749369380
713264449197419741974
844309535
829224605
1334598736
1238540698197519751975
1317593724
1138279859
1705875830
1554687867197619761976
1490653837
1150324826
1745847898
1542653889197719771977
1533602931
1125336789
1631834797
1341549792197819781978
1373610763
977281696
1395825570
1274599675197919791979
932329603
829215614
1502921581
1498757741198019801980
17257181007
14433341109
222411261098
261210171595198119811981
1610640970
20242581766
23508561494
31229092213198219821982
308210402042
24613952066
340214012001
339711832214198319831983
342411962228
27216012120
386418272037
359713632234198419841984
346913032166
27217491972
393418452089
367114392232198519851985
407516162459
29877092278
416519972168
352014212099198619861986
393714322505
30366082428
391217432169
322711312096198719871987
28599531906
25536941859
280013381462
26039671636198819881988
24149421472
17475071240
266312511412
25678541713198919891989
281411031711
20275481479
304815151533
332712672060199019901990
335612862070
33019852316
506724392628
544020763364199119911991
561521553460
470013683332
607227693303
633226193713199219921992
604326093434
557717103867
647327963677
623524273808199319931993
520120523149
435614202936
491623452571
488718063081199419941994
407816272451
397114142557
379217502042
380314412362199519951995
335912762083
363013872243
374414152329
354413062238199619961996
333312702063
329912462053
328512582027
315212321920199719971997
314212761866
314811551993
316810722096
3265133319323102.131290.011812.12
3251131219393251.281258.181993.1
3323127520483393.911333.042060.87
3364129620683455.691334.782120.91
3912137925333714.071331.792382.28
3590129422963613.451230.812382.64
3376124021363451.821306.432145.39
3402129621063500.651339.962160.69
3637121024273451.411162.762288.65
3370130020703379.151219.942159.21
3709123124783795.911313.492482.42
3601118424173690.541228.812461.73
3943135925843766.911316.362450.55
3684134823363704.361266.892437.47
364094027003721.911021.352700.56
3705102826773778.831070.412708.42
4141140827333982.091364.352617.74
4066167923874036.691555.972480.72
3808139024183929.751502.462427.29
4291175425374357.481808.222549.26
3797158522123689.111552.12137.01
3767147022973736.521377.632358.89
3314107522393417.61167.182250.42
3306110422023340.761137.082203.68
3248120820403177.7411961981.74
3108119719113069.481124.671944.81
2900106118392988.831129.351859.48
2936111818182955.941133.971821.97
3010110119092950.271097.31852.97
3407142219853354.921344.982009.94
3306145418523397.151523.591873.56
3170125619143190.661267.131923.53
3564147320913501.161477.942023.22
3235126319723198.331197.872000.46
3172128618863241.191332.381908.81
3166139617703196.321409.811786.51
3274138418903207.221391.751815.47
3191139917923094.531334.241760.29
3113123418793166.721277.161889.56
2929114817813038.531161.851876.68
3262108021823172.211097.562074.65
3689141022793638.581339.932298.65
4059146725924117.541494.692622.85
4525153729884606.661561.813044.85
Total
Compulsory Liquidations
Creditors Voluntary Liquidations2
Total
Compulsory Liquidations
Creditors Voluntary Liquidations
1.21378357821976
1.19532523881977
1.19485286781978
1.16684285281979
1.1235099231980
1.08523591621981
1.14903313751982
1.15855994761983
1.30734944161984
1.24280253011985
1.24175876111986
1.28455656071987
1.28211639061988
1.27195517831989
1.22396139550.8987516853
1.21144850970.8870355143
1.20584269710.880362132
1.21225398160.8896181095
1.18914300010.8793308047
1.15696714820.8603854489
1.15624698080.8688436174
1.18179074620.8905330857
1.15622792690.8681952438
1.18049750040.8742904633
1.16581005760.8605088349
1.16062148830.8550567798
1.13859311920.8441763273
1.18218278890.8824707803
1.18942553820.8918843476
1.14988592330.8533476459
1.17801586360.8697698979
1.17683496760.8736557913
1.17859286942008
Households' VAT
VTTL
Households VAT
VTTL
Total VAT receipts as a ratio of households VAT liability and VTTL
MBD0001C4C1.xls
Chart1
0.12546448410.1166048396
0.12377681850.1189574404
0.15397977440.1249474187
0.14068804150.1262388746
0.13684701230.1319466924
VAT Gap
VAT Gap, less MTIC
VAT Gap
Sheet1
YearVAT GapVAT Gap, less MTIC
2002-0316.0%
2003-0412.5%11.7%
2004-0512.4%11.9%
2005-0615.4%12.5%
2006-0714.1%12.6%
2007-0813.7%13.2%
Sheet1
0.12546448410.1166048396
0.12377681850.1189574404
0.15397977440.1249474187
0.14068804150.1262388746
0.13684701230.1319466924
VAT Gap
VAT Gap, less MTIC
VAT Gap %
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
The VAT Gap is only an indicator of levels
Chart1
0.1490.1570.1540.152001-022001-022001-022001-02
0.1580.1680.1590.1610.1540.1570.1560.154
0.1290.1350.1240.1260.1170.1210.120.116
2004-050.1350.1170.1240.1120.1180.1170.105
2005-062005-060.1450.1550.1470.1540.1520.139
2006-072006-072006-070.1420.1320.1330.1350.121
2007-082007-082007-082007-080.1250.1230.1250.11
2008-092008-092008-092008-092008-090.1530.160.13
2009-102009-102009-102009-102009-102009-100.1390.106
2010-112010-112010-112010-112010-112010-112010-110.097
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
VAT Gap
VAT gap estimates by year of publication
Sheet1
VAT gap as a % of VTTL as published in MITL
VAT gap as a % of VTTL
MITL2001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-11
200214.6%
200314.7%15.7%
200414.9%15.8%12.9%
200515.7%16.8%13.5%13.5%
200615.4%15.9%12.4%11.7%14.5%
200715.0%16.1%12.6%12.4%15.5%14.2%
200815.4%11.7%11.2%14.7%13.2%12.5%
200915.7%12.1%11.8%15.4%13.3%12.3%15.3%
201015.6%12.0%11.7%15.2%13.5%12.5%16.0%13.9%
201115.4%11.6%10.5%13.9%12.1%11.0%13.0%10.6%9.7%
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Compliance Resource Allocation Management (CRAM)Main purpose is to inform compliance strategy and resource allocation decisions in Local Compliance, and (under development) Special Investigations & Risk Intelligence ServicesOptimal resource allocation decisions require understanding of full impact of resource changes on compliance behaviour, expressed in tax gap currencyAttitudinal segmentation of taxpayers, with conceptual and theoretical models of compliance behaviour, enable us to use a numerical modelPrincipal uses:HMRC Strategy March 2010Spending Review September 2010 (917m investment)Ongoing forecasts of Change benefitsPROTECT
-
CRAM how it works
-
Segmentation overview for individuals Individuals Segmentation Summary Pack| * | *Note: additional segments for organised fraud and payment defaulters
-
Evaluation: OECD frameworkOutcomes can be viewed over short, medium and long termAdapted from OECD Forum on Tax Administration: Evaluating the effectiveness of compliance risk treatment strategies
-
Future workDisaggregation or segmentation by:Customer groupCustomer behaviourCustomer attitudes (customer-centric strategy)Bring up to date via synthesis of:ForecastsLeading indicatorsBusiness intelligenceRisk IntelligenceEngagement with external academics (credibility)Continuing research into indirect effects
-
Thank you!
Discuss trend*Level subject to a margin of errorRobust trend