Applied Sustainability on Kauai - ASOK 1

KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i

The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y W A S B O R NS U S T A I N A B I L I T Y W A S B O R N I N 1 9 8 7I N 1 9 8 7

•• B R U N D T L A N D C O M M I S S I O NB R U N D T L A N D C O M M I S S I O N

( 3 s p h e r e s )( 3 s p h e r e s )

•• T R I P L E B O T T O M L I N ET R I P L E B O T T O M L I N E (( J o h n J o h n E l k i n g t o n )E l k i n g t o n )



WHAT A DIFFERENCE TWO DECADES MAKES!WHAT A DIFFERENCE TWO DECADES MAKES!

1 91 9 8 98 9

2 02 0 11 11



SS U S T A I N A B I L I T YU S T A I N A B I L I T Y . . .. . . B Y T H E N U M B E R SB Y T H E N U M B E R S

O n eO n e v i s i o n v i s i o n emergent propertyemergent property

T w oT w o p a t h s p a t h s mitigate &mitigate & adapt adapt

T h r e eT h r e e s p h e r e s s p h e r e s economy/community/ecologyeconomy/community/ecology

F o u rF o u r c o n d i t i o n s c o n d i t i o n s natural stepsnatural steps

F i v eF i v e t h e m e s t h e m e s consensus missionconsensus mission

S i xS i x c h a l l e n g e s c h a l l e n g e s footprint reductionfootprint reduction

S e v e nS e v e n g e n e r a t i o n s g e n e r a t i o n s selfself -- reinforcing systemsreinforcing systems



ONE V I S ION ONE V I S ION P r e f e r r e d D e f i n i t i o nP r e f e r r e d D e f i n i t i o n

““ Sus t a i nab i l i t ySus t a i nab i l i t y i s t he i s t he poss i b i l i t ypos s i b i l i t y t h a t human and o the r l i f et ha t human and o the r l i f e

w i l l f l ou r i s h on t he p l ane t f o r eve r . ”w i l l f l ou r i s h on t he p l ane t f o r eve r . ”

“ I t i s an “ I t i s an emergen temergen t p rope r t y p rope r t y wh i chwh i ch on l on l y appea r s when t he who le s y s t emy appea r s when t he who le s y s t em

i s f unc t i on i ng p rope r l y . ”i s f unc t i on i ng p rope r l y . ”

“UnUn -- su s t a i nab i l i t ysu s t a i nab i l i t y is an unintended consequence of our ‘sy s t em b l i ndnes ssy s t em b l i ndnes s ’.

• We fail to understand the systems at play in the world. • We rely on technological quick fixes that ignore underlying

causes.”

John R. Ehrenfeld author of “sustainability by design”

interviewed in MIT Sloan review, july 14, 2009 Executive Director of the International Society for Industrial Ecology;

former Director of the MIT Program on Technology, Business, and Environment.



FOURFOUR CONDIT IONS CONDIT IONS From The Natural StepTM

In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing:

1: Concentrations of substances extracted from the earth's crust. 2: Concentrations of substances produced by society. 3: Degradation by physical means.

AND...

people are not subject to conditions that systematically:

4: Undermine their capacity to meet their needs.

These four basic principles for sustainability are deeply rooted in science

and in systems thinking.

And it also follows that these four basic principles are something that everyone can agree about.



T W O P A T H ST W O P A T H S



F I V E T H E M E SF I V E T H E M E S



S E V E N G E N E R A T I O N SS E V E N G E N E R A T I O N S

Se l fSe l f -- Re i n fo r c i ng Sy s t emsRe in fo r c i ng Sy s t ems

Cycles turning within cycles…the secret of sustainability



T H R E E S P H E R E ST H R E E S P H E R E S

S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y T H I N K I N GS U S T A I N A B I L I T Y T H I N K I N G



S I X C H A L L E N G E SS I X C H A L L E N G E S Amer i c a ’ s E co log i c a l Foo tp r i n tAmer i c a ’ s E co log i c a l Foo tp r i n t

Share of total U.S. Ecological Footprint by category, derived from Cool Climate Calculator.



O T H E RO T H E R C O N S I D E R A T I O N S . . .C O N S I D E R A T I O N S . . .



F O U R F O U R P O S S I B I L I T I E SP O S S I B I L I T I E S

EARLY ACTION ON GLOBAL WARMING? (Illustrating the Precautionary Principle)

The precautionary principle, crudely summarized, states that where the potential impact is significant and we have insufficient confidence to choose between two future scenarios, prudence demands that we plan for the more pessimistic.

Source: Greg Craven, "What's the Worst That Could Happen? A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate", gregcraven.com

ACT NOW?

VERDICT?

ACT NOW?

VERDICT?



F O U R D I M E N S I O N SF O U R D I M E N S I O N S INTEGRAL FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABILITY

Adapted from The Four Worlds of Sustainability, by Barrett Brown



S O . . .S O . . .

H O W U N S U S T A I N A B L EH O W U N S U S T A I N A B L E A R E W E ?A R E W E ?



T H E “ H O C K E Y S T I C K S ”T H E “ H O C K E Y S T I C K S ” ON EXPONENTIALITY & TIPPING POINTS



W H A T H A P P E N E D W H A T H A P P E N E D T O E R O I ?T O E R O I ?

Energy-Return-On-Investment

Source: Crash Course, www.chrismartenson.com



P E A K O I L ?P E A K O I L ?

US oil supply is likely to begin its terminal decline sometime between 2011 and 2020, from a peak of 7.5 to 7.7 billion barrels annually, at an average annual rate of between 2% and 3%. By 2030. Our

available supply of oil will probably range between 4.2 and 6.3 billion barrels. Source: The Oil Drum, “On American Sustainability - Anatomy of Societal Collapse

70% 70%

DECL INEDECL INE



U S E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S ?U S E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S ?



Emissions REDUCTIONS Quickly? Scenarios from the climate interactive model

climateinteractive.org

* Only 10-year delay Must do in 10 years

Business-As-Usual Modest Decrease 95% Reduction

* * 2 degree threshhold



Source: Post-Carbon Institute, Daniel Lerch presentation, 8 May 2009 • Gaining Ground Summit, Calgary



CC L A S S W A R F A R E ?L A S S W A R F A R E ?

"The money derived from productivity improvements over the last decades was shunted to capital markets under the ideological assumption (seen in Greenspan's thinking) that these markets would make better investments in future prosperity than individuals. That assumption has been proven false. The money was gambled away.”

John Robb in Global Guerillas blog on "Parasitic Predation" Mar 09

Chart Source: Damon Silvers, "How a Low Wage Economy with Weak Labor Laws Brought Us the Mortgage Credit Crisis", Feller Memorial Labor Law Lecture, April 2, 2008, UC Berkeley



I M P E N D I N G C R I S E S ?I M P E N D I N G C R I S E S ?

Brent Crude Oil Spot $/barrel



CC A S C A D I N G A S C A D I N G C A T A S T R O P H E S ?C A T A S T R O P H E S ?



F I N A L T H O U G H T S . . . F I N A L T H O U G H T S . . .



T O W A R D S U S T A I N A B I L I T YT O W A R D S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y



Dominant model infinite competitive growth

MAXIMUM ENTROPY

bigger fish swallowing the smaller

laying waste to everything in its path

like a hurricane

no closed cycle to hold resources within or to build up stable organized structures

Sustainable model life cycle of the organism

ZERO ENTROPY

self-similar fractal structure cycles turning within cycles

the secret of sustainability

dynamically closed cycle enables stable organized structures

to build up and in a balanced way

from “Dream Farm” by physicist Mae-Wan Ho



THE SUSTA INAB IL I TY IMPERAT IVETHE SUSTA INAB IL I TY IMPERAT IVE

“In designing pathways for the future, we need to make them:

•• A T S C A L EA T S C A L E Interesting new tech may be hard to bring to scale

•• I N T I M EI N T I M E Things that are very far out, will be helpful far out, but right now we need some good things

•• F O R A L LF O R A L L Between the rich and poor, an equilibrium, particularly in terms of the environment

David Hunter Marks David Hunter Marks

MIT Professor Coordinator of the Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS)

At the Annual AGS Conference, Feb ‘08



SUSTA INAB IL I TY SUSTA INAB IL I TY I S NOT WHAT WE TH INK ,I S NOT WHAT WE TH INK , I T ’ S HOWIT ’ S HOW

Applied Sustainability on Kauai - ASOK 1

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