Applications of Seasonal Prediction in Australia...Predictions of Northern Australian Wet Season...
Transcript of Applications of Seasonal Prediction in Australia...Predictions of Northern Australian Wet Season...
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Oscar Alves and the POAMA Team
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology
Applications of Seasonal Prediction in Australia
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Brief description of POAMA System
System Skill
-Seasonal
-Multi-week
-Modes and case studies (MJO, Modoki, SAM, etc)
Applications of Seasonal Forecast
-General
-Agriculture
-Marine (Reef bleaching, fisheries, etc)
Outline
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Timelines 2005 2000 2010 2015
POAMA-1 Operational
POAMA-1.5 Development
POAMA-1.5 Operational
3
POAMA-1 Development
POAMA-2P Development
2P Op
2M Dev
2M OP
POAMA-3/ACCESS Dev
P3 Op
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POAMA-1.5 POAMA-2P Model T47L17 Bureau Atmos +
GFDL MOM2 Same but 3 versions, one with bias correction
Initialisation OI (Univariate Smith Optimum Interpolation)
Temperature
Atmos: Nudging to NWP
PEODAS (Multivariate pseudo-Ensemble Kalman Filter)
Temperature + Salinity
Atmos: Nudging to NWP
Ensemble generation
10 members
Time-lagged atmos. ensemble
No ocean perturbations
30 members
Multi-model (3 versions)
No time-lagged ensemble
Ocean perturbations from PEODAS
No atmosphere perturbations in seasonal version
POAMA-1.5/POAMA-2 Differences
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POAMA-2P (Seasonal)
POAMA-2M (Monthly+Seasonal)
Ensemble generation
30 members
Multi-model (3 versions)
No lagged ensemble
Ocean perturbations from PEODAS;
No atmosphere perturbations
33 members
Multi-model (3 versions)
No lagged ensemble
Ocean and atmosphere perturbations from Coupled Breeding Scheme
Operational 30 member every 15 days out to 9 months
33 members every Thursday out to 4 months
POAMA-2 Intraseasonal system
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
PEODAS: POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System (Yin et al 2010)
Pseudo Ensemble Kalman Filter
3D Multivariate ocean assimilation
Temperature and Salinity profiles
Re-analysis from 1960-present
Produces an ensemble of 11 states (pseudo breeding like NCEP)
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Correlation between re-analysis and UKMO EN3 dataset
Heat Content Salt Content
Produced by Maggie Zhao
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Comparison with Other Centres Correlation with “Observations”
Heat Content Surface Current
PEODAS
ECMWF
Produced by Maggie Zhao
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Coupled Model integrations
1 day
Bred vectors are rescaled and centred to the central
analyses
Central unperturbed analyses: PEODAS and ALI
Coupled Ensemble Initialisation System Coupled Model integrations
1 day
Bred vectors are rescaled and centred to the central
analyses
Central unperturbed analyses: PEODAS and ALI
Coupled Ensemble Initialisation System
Generates coupled bred perturbations of the atmosphere and ocean based on a
breeding method
Initial Conditions for the Intraseasonal System 2M
Towards Coupled Assimilation... Based on the PEODAS infrastructure
(Yonghong Yin)
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
SST Skill
El Nino and IOD (& Comparison with other models)
Mostly Based on hind-casts from ~1982-2006
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
POAMA Progress – SST Skill
Improvements due to •Increased supercomputing
•Improved forecast system (model, physics, initialisation strategy)
•New observing Systems
NINO 3.4 Skill
00.1
0.20.3
0.40.5
0.60.7
0.80.9
1
2000 2010 2020
Year
Anom
aly
Corr
elat
ion
Skill
Month 3
Month 6
Month 9
Indian Ocean Dipole Skill
00.1
0.20.3
0.40.5
0.60.7
0.80.9
1
2000 2010 2020
Year
Anom
aly
Corr
elat
ion
Skill
Month 2
Month 4
Month 6
P1 P1.5
P2 M2
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Indian Ocean Dipole Skill
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Impact of POAMA-2 assimilation in Pacific
?
POAMA-2 Skill in Pacific (spatial ACC)
Salt Content
POAMA-2-POAMA1.5 Skill
SST
POAMA-2-POAMA1.5 Skill
Heat Content
POAMA-2-POAMA1.5 Skill
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Rainfall Skill
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Skill Intercomparison – Hit rate above median rainfall
Technical report – Langford et al
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Brier Skill Score for SE – POAMA2P
ec
poama
UK
Lead 1 month
UK
ec
Lead 4 month
EC teleconnections not so good
Produced by Sally Langford
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
SON Skill lead 1 from 2P version
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim
POAMA-2 MME
ECMWF
POAMA-2 +EC+UKMO
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POAMA-2 intraseasonal system has added benefits on the seasonal timescale…
Rainfall (above the upper tercile) Reliability: Skill of first season
POAMA-2M Seasonal Forecasts
Tropical Pacific Australia Tropical Indian
POAMA-2P (seas)
POAMA-2M (intraseas)
(Guomin Wang)
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
POAMA Progress – Regional Skill
First Seasonal Rainfall/Max temperature – skill scores for upper tercile forecasts
Forecast Accuracy over Australia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Acc
urac
y (%
)
Rainfall Max Temperature
Forecast Reliability over Australia
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Rel
iabi
lity
Rainfall Max Temperature
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Multi-week Skill
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Fortnight 1
Fortnight 2
Australian RAINFALL above upper tercile: all forecast start months
POAMA-1.5
POAMA-2P (seas)
POAMA-2M (intraseas)
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POAMA has good skill in predicting rainfall and TMAX over eastern Australia in the second fortnight of the forecast, particularly during spring forecast months.
ROC area of the probability that rainfall (left) and TMAX (right) for the 2nd fortnight of the forecast is in the upper tercile for spring forecast months
(SON, 1989-2006). ROC areas significantly more skilful than climatology are shaded (5% significance level).
Precipitation TMAX
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Climate drivers operating on timescales longer than intraseasonal influence prediction skill
(Hudson et al 2011)
El Nino / La Nina (n=48)
Neutral (n=60) IOD small (n=30)
For rainfall forecast in the 2nd fortnight, there is higher skill when the IOD is strong and when ENSO is in an extreme (JJASON)
Rainfall correlation skill
IOD large (n=30)
ENSO in neutral state
ENSO in neutral state
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
2010 La Nina
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
2010 September-October-November mean rainfall anomalies over Australia in the TOP: observation BOTTOM: POAMA2 ensemble mean forecast at LT0.
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Forecast of different components
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Skill for other modes
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(Drosdowsky and Wheeler)
Definition: Date of accumulation of 50 mm after 1st September Predictions of Northern Australian Wet Season Onset
SKILL in predicting the probability of an
early onset (forecasts initialised
1 Sep)
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RMSE & correlation between observed and POAMA RMM indices (over all start months)
Climatological forecast skill
COR RMSE
POAMA-2 skill exceeds POAMA-1.5
MJO – Prediction of Index Wheeler and Hendon (2004) RMM Index
(Rashid et al 2010, Marshall et al 2011)
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RMSE & correlation between observed and POAMA SAM indices (over all start months)
SAM – weekly prediction of index
COR RMSE
Climatological forecast skill
POAMA-2 skill exceeds POAMA-1.5 (Marshall et al 2011)
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Climatological forecast skill
RMSE & correlation between observed and POAMA blocking indices at 140°E (all start months)
BLOCKING – prediction of index
COR RMSE
(Andrew Marshall)
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Predicting fortnight: 15-28 August
Maximum temperature anomalies
Winter heat wave: Aug 2009
Observed
Persistence of observed (average of observed fortnight 1-14 August)
POAMA 10-member ensemble mean forecasts
Hudson, Marshall, Alves 2011. Intraseasonal forecasting of the 2009 summer and winter Australian heat waves using POAMA. Weather and Forecasting. 26, 257-279.
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
General applications
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
SST: NINO, IOD, Modoki (Operational)
Reef Bleaching Risk (Operational)
Hydrological Stream Flow (Pre Operational)
Pacific Islands Temp/Rain (Pre Operational)
Regional Rainfall/Temperature e.g. Median/Tercile probs (Pre-Operational)
Wet season onset (Trial)
Multi-week rainfall/temperature (Trial)
MJO (Trial)
SAM (Trial)
Seamless products (e.g. Distributions of daily ) (Trial)
Application specific Trial Products
Products
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
General (Temperature and Rainfall – e.g. for agriculture)
Hydrological Streamflow prediction
Reef Bleaching Risk
Setting Tuna Quota regions in Tasman Sea
Salmon farming in Tasmania
Prawn farming in Queensland
Pacific Islands (temperature, rainfall, sea level, bleaching risk, TCs)
Prediction of heat extremes
Research into Applications
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Seamless Products http://poama.bom.gov.au/
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Agriculture applications
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Value of a POAMA forecast for N management (2500 ha wheat at Nyabing, WA)
Climatology (history)
POAMA forecast
(70% skill)
Correct forecast
POAMA % of best possible
Realistic risk averse ($1 N for $2 return)
$235,000 $402,500 $490,000 66%
Maximise GM (risky!)
$410,000 $420,000 $527,500 9%
The Lesson: A realistic risk-averse management strategy can benefit greatly from even a moderately skilful forecast.
Senthold Asseng and Peter McIntosh
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Benefit of POAMA forecast year by year
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Gross margins (A$/ha)
-200
0
200
400
600
Wrong forecast Below median
With POAMA forecast
Realistic (risk averse) N application Peter McIntosh and Senthold Asseng
No forecast
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How long for a forecast to pay off?
5 10 15 20 25-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
years
Gro
ss M
argi
n ($
/ha)
80% chance of exceeding (risk averse)
climatologyforecastperfect
3 years
The Lesson: A farmer is 80% sure of making more money after just 3 years of using the POAMA forecast at Nyabing.
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Marine
applications
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Real-time forecasts available in Google Earth SSTA, thermal stress & probability forecasts Extends across the tropical oceans 30S-30N
Tropics Reef SST Forecasts
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Model Features
•Based on the New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM + MOM + CABLE)
•Resolution tbd between N96 and N216, L~38-80, depending on supercomputing
•Preliminary version in 2012 with limited hind-casts (N96L38, simple initialisation (SST nudging)
POAMA-3/ACCESS
Initialisation Features
•Full coupled initialisation (coupled PEODAS) with cross-covariances and implicit breeding
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
ACCESS Trial Multi-week Results
Trial hind-casts with ACCESS Solid – ACCESS (atmosphere only)
Dash – POAMA-2M
Once full POAMA initialisation system is implemented seasonal hind-casts will be evaluated
Significant increase in supercomputing resources on the NCI from 2013
MJO Skill (index correlation)
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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Summary
•POAMA-2P Significant improvement due to Ocean Assimilation and Pseudo Multi-model
•POAMA-2M significant improvement due to ensemble generation, especially reliability
•Forecasts have been demonstrated to be useful for various applications
•Future: Seamless products, including extremes
•Future: Focus on new model and coupled assimilation/ensemble gen