1 04/12/23

Applications – Beyond Bits and Bytes

Arjun Roychowdhury

Director, Converged Applications & IMS

arjun@hsc.com

2 04/12/23

Broadband Penetration – Established Markets

Key Takeaway: More than 50% of households in all top 25 countries have BB. This is critical for any Broadband ‘Appliance’ to touch our lives

3 04/12/23

Broadband Growth – Emerging Markets

4 04/12/23

Broadband – Growth vs. Penetration vs. Population

5 04/12/23

Recognizing ‘user acceptability’ of the Internet

The Internet is already a core part of the target market’s lives: Comfort with the Internet:

We don’t check Yellow Books, we ‘Google’ Comfort with the Internet as a Communication Service:

Vonage added 1m subscribers in 2006 But customer churn of 2.4% - reason: Cable VoIP !

Skype – 150m subscribers by end 06 Comfort with ‘social networking’ (or, more than just voice)

Myspace surpassed 50million unique visitors in 2006 Youtube surpassed 18million unique visitors in a year

approx 8m million US Mobile subscribers are capturing videos to mobile phones

US Internet ad spend increasing @ 30% Y-Y ($12.5B 2005) 5% of total US ad revenue telecom companies account for 7% of internet ad revenues

6 04/12/23

Why does this change anything ?

Sudden Competition: Suddenly, Verizon, who has never been into TV, can transmit IPTV

over BB lines, threatening DirecTV, DishTV, Comcast Suddenly, Comcast, who has never been into Phone, can offer Cable

VoIP calling over BB lines, threatening AT&T, Verizon, SBC etc. Skype decides to offer free PC-PC calling and low rate PC/phone

calling over BB lines, threatening all Telco voice providers Joost offers live TV streaming on your PC via BB lines, threatening all

TV providers WiMAX operators (example, ClearWire) threaten cellular providers

by allowing mobile availability of broadband Hard Fact:

So, if Clearwire + Skype + Joost get together, what happens to the almost trillion dollar industry of ‘communications’ ?

Hard Truth: BB availability is a leveling field. Providers need to fit in or be left out.

7 04/12/23

The Threat to Telcos

Mar 2007: Report from Analysys: Market research firm, Analysys, estimates that Skype and

similar services could rob the traditional telephony market of 5.4 percent of the global fixed telephony revenues by 2011, some $US18.2 billion (of $364b).

New players, such as Skype and Google, are successfully fostering novel forms of communication among online communities, potentially posing a major threat to core communications revenues. The usage associated with these services, while predominantly incremental at present, will increasingly substitute for traditional communications services

Market for content aggregation of on-demand video by online retailers is likely to be worth around $US820 million in 2011

8 04/12/23

Are these BB Apps being used by us ?

Here are some examples: Before YouTube came in, people did not need to watch ‘user

videos’ on the net. Today, it has 100m videos streamed per day, 65,000 new video clips uploaded each day

Before Skype came in, people did not need their PC to make calls. Today, Skype has 25% penetration in BB subscribers in EU, 50%+ in Brazil and Israel, 43% in Taiwan

Before Myspace came in, people never needed virtual internet communities.

70m+ users in 3 yrs 250,000 new users added each day

9 04/12/23

Money value of Blended Applications

“Blended Applications” – use one IP stream to deliver multiple services (bundled) but provide an avenue to connect them in some way example: You are listening to a radio stream of

“Comfortably Numb – Pink Floyd” – on the side you have a small video preview of their concert (feed from IPTV service) and a sidebar on where they are performing next (feed from MTV News)

Hard to do ? What if it takes 10 minutes to do it ? Yahoo Pipes ! Unix Pipes – for the Internet World

Money Value Biggest SP concern: Subscriber Churn

Single Service Churn Rate: approx 2.3% multiple service churn rate: approx 1.2% (source: Bell Labs Research)

10 04/12/23

Application: Think Usability & Innovation

COMMODITY MARKETLifespan for differentiation: typically 3 yrs

SPECIALIZED MARKETLifespan for differentiation: typically 5-10 years

PERSONALIZATION MARKET:Touch the lives of users.

Protocols

Infrastructure

Innovate

11 04/12/23

SaaS:Old Wine, New Bottle, New Buyers

12 04/12/23

A Good idea vs. a Bad Idea

Web 2.0 is ‘hype’ because of bad-ideas, not fundamentals

13 04/12/23

Mash-ups: Anything beyond Cool?

Key-Concept: Provide infrastructure, provide tools, let user’s build:

Yahoo Maps and Google Maps are mash-ups

Zillow – mashup company for real-estate, location, and price with analysis

Sales-Force: most successful Sales Automation tool has completely gone online – APIs for extension

Key logic: Gives users the tools (example Yahoo Pipes), they will innovate: example:LastTube (Last.fm meets Youtube)

14 04/12/23

The Unification Game – think Service Control

LTE WiMAX

Irrelevant ! It’s all about a Broadband PIPE

Uniformed Service Delivery X Wireline/WirelessUniformed User/Device IdentityUniformed Charging/PolicyUniformed User Experience

IMS!

Service Delivery Platform

15 04/12/23

Mobile: Voice vs. Data - Facts

Voice

Data

src: Yankee Group

16 04/12/23

Application Trends Mobile Section is seeking applications to supplement decreasing voice and

steady SMS revenues: In US MVNOs are aggressive about increasing margins In EU/UK, MNOs are much more innovative that US counterparts

IPTV roll-out in a bid to diversify revenue streams, due to declining voice revenues

Youth markets – example: playlists, iTunes, ratings Gaming – second life: virtual vs. real life – which do you prefer ? User Generated Video vs. Professionally Generated Video

‘Browser based model’ not acceptable in mobile world – local client install is the way to go. In a survey of around 50 vendors (mostly entertainment space) (typically ISVs or Content Providers for mobile space) Native: 18, J2ME:12, Flash-lite:20 Feedback: J2ME, too slow: Native – not portable: Flash-lite: ideal but has

limitations

AJAX restricted to desktop, non media intensive real-time uses at most (collaboration of documents, slick interfaces etc)

17 04/12/23

Increase your perspective – the world is bigger than bits and bytes

See it on Youtube here

Download hi-res version here

This version is what I presented in the tech seminar. You will not be able to click it, since it linked to a copy of the video on my desktop. Instead….

How the Internet has changed under our nose – did you realize it ?

TURN YOUR SPEAKERS ON!

credit: Prof. Michael Welsh