Application of Item Response Theory to ADAS-cog Scores ... · Sebastian Ueckert1, Elodie L. Plan2,...
Transcript of Application of Item Response Theory to ADAS-cog Scores ... · Sebastian Ueckert1, Elodie L. Plan2,...
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Sebastian Ueckert1, Elodie L. Plan2, Kaori Ito3, Mats O. Karlsson1, Brian W. Corrigan3, Andrew C. Hooker1
Application of Item Response Theory
to ADAS-cog Scores Modeling
in Alzheimer’s Disease
1. Dept Pharmaceutical Biosciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
2. Metrum Institute and Metrum Research Group, Tariffville, CT, USA
3. Global Clinical Pharmacology, Pfizer Inc, Groton, CT, USA
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2
Make a fist
Draw a circle
7June2012
? Name current month
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• Cognitive subscale of Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale
• Cognitive assessment including broad range of sub-tests e.g.,
ADAS-cog Assessment
?
7June2012
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LAKE
CLOCK
FOREST
ANIMAL
“Make a fist” “Draw a circle” “Name current month”
“Name finger”
“Foldput in envelopaddress
stamp”
Rosen et al. 1984
“Remember those words”
Ability to speak
Ability to understand
“Name object”
?
3
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?
• Cognitive subscale of Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale
• Cognitive assessment including broad range of sub-tests e.g.,
ADAS-cog Assessment
Rosen et al. 19844
7June2012
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LAKE
CLOCK
FOREST
ANIMAL
“Make a fist” “Draw a circle” “Name current month”
“Name finger”
“Foldput in envelopaddress
stamp”
“Remember those words”
Ability to speak
Ability to understand
“Name object”
?
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
ADAS-cogScore ΣAD
•Primary outcome
•Range 0-70
•ΣAD ↑ AD severity ↑
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?
• Cognitive subscale of Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale
• Cognitive assessment including broad range of sub-tests e.g.,
ADAS-cog Assessment
Rosen et al. 19845
t
ΣAD
7June2012
?
LAKE
CLOCK
FOREST
ANIMAL
“Make a fist” “Draw a circle” “Name current month”
“Name finger”
“Foldput in envelopaddress
stamp”
“Remember those words”
Ability to speak
Ability to understand
“Name object”
?
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
ADAS-cogScore ΣAD
•Primary outcome
•Range 0-70
•ΣAD ↑ AD severity ↑
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Score Properties
• Tasks have varying difficulty e.g.,
construction or drawing task
• Imputation necessary if subject refuses
task or physician omits it
6
Fraction of Subjects
Failing Task
0% 80%
Ob
jec
t to D
raw
• ADAS-cog in study A ≠ ADAS-cog in study B
– Different test versions (ADAS-cog11 , ADAS-cogmod , ADAS-cog13 ,
ADAS-cogMCI )
Non-linear scale
Bias
Hard to pool data
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Cognitive Disability
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LAKE
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FOREST
ANIMAL
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COGNITIVE
DISABILITY
?
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Cognitive Disability
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7June2012
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LAKE
CLOCK
FOREST
ANIMAL
8
COGNITIVE
DISABILITY
?
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Cognitive Disability
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LAKE
CLOCK
FOREST
ANIMAL
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COGNITIVE
DISABILITY
?
0
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2
3
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0
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Item Response Theory
10
Assumption:
Individual responses for each item depend on a hidden variable
(trait or ability)
• Describes the probability of a certain test outcome as the function of a
person’s ability
• Directly estimates the most likely ability, instead of summary scores
Used in psychometrics for the development of high-stakes tests
Statistical framework to score tests or surveys
consisting of several dichotomous (or
polytomous) responses
Developed around 1950 by Rasch and Lazarsfeld
Georg Rasch Paul Lazarsfeld
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Project Outline
• Assumption:
Outcome of each test in the ADAS-cog assessment depends on
unobserved variable “cognitive disability”
• Approach:
1. Develop IRT model for ADAS-cog assessment using data from
clinical trial databases
2. Apply ADAS-cog IRT model to longitudinal clinical trial data
3. Investigate benefits of IRT model
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Baseline Model
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Data
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– Observational study with normal, mild cognitively impaired (MCI)
and mild AD subjects
– Baseline ADAS-cog data
– 819 subjects
– Database with placebo arm data from clinical trials
– First visit ADAS-cog data from 6* CAMD studies (Phase II & III)
– 1832 subjects
*Studies with item level data as of November 2011
>150000 data entries in total
http://www. adni-info.orghttp://www.c-path.org
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Model
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LAKE
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COGNITIVE
DISABILITY
?
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Model
?
7June2012
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LAKE
CLOCK
FOREST
ANIMAL
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?
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Model
Binary
Subject specific
Parameter Value
0
0.1
0.2
P(n
ot D
raw
ing
Cu
be
Corr
ectly)
20%
40%
60%
80%
-4 -2 0 2 4
Cognitive Disability
P(n
ot D
raw
ing
Cu
be
Co
rre
ctly)
20%
40%
60%
80%
-4 -2 0 2 4
Parameter Value
0.5
1
2
Cognitive Disability
P(n
ot D
raw
ing
Cu
be
Co
rre
ctly)
20%
40%
60%
80%
-4 -2 0 2 4
Parameter Value
-1
0
1
Cognitive Disability
Test specific
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Model
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Binary Binomial
Ordered Categorical
Generalized Poisson
(x 3)(x 39)
(x 5)(x 1)
167 Parameters•166 fixed effect
•1 random effect
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0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Commands NamingConstruction OrientationIdeational Praxis
-4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4
Results
Spoken LanguageComprehension WordFindingConcentration Remembering
Delayed Word Recall
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
WordRecall Number CancellationWord Recognition
-4 -2 0 2 4-4 -2 0 2 4-4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4
Bin
ary
Bin
om
ial
Ord
ere
dC
ate
gorica
l
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
-4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4
P(F
aile
d)
P(F
aile
d)
P(Y
ji=k)
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Longitudinal Model
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Data
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– Placebo arm of Phase III study with mild to moderate AD patients
– 18 month with 6 ADAS-cog assessments
– 322 subjects
84907 observations in total
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Model
Binary Binomial
Ordered CategoricalGeneralized Poisson
(x 3)(x 39)
(x 5)(x 1)
21
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Model
Binary Binomial
Ordered CategoricalGeneralized Poisson
(x 3)(x 39)
(x 5)(x 1)
22
5 Parameters•2 fixed effect
•2 random effect
•1 covariance
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Results
23
Parameter Value RSE
Baseline θ1 0.96 4.2 %
Slope θ2 8.80·10-04 8.7 %
IIV Baseline ω1 0.71 5.4 %
IIV Slope ω2 1.3 8.9 %
Cor(η1,η2) 0.528 10.1 %
• All parameters estimated
precisely (assessed through
- Hessian of log-likelihood)
• Corresponding to baseline
ADAS-cog value of 22.2
points and yearly increase of
3.5 points
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Diagnostics
Make a fist Point to ceiling Put pencil…
Put watch… Tap shoulder…
0.10.20.30.40.5
0.10.20.30.40.5
100 200 300 400 100 200 300 400F
rac
tio
n F
ail
ed
Time [days]Time [days]
AD
AS
-co
g S
co
re
Y=0 Y=1 Y=2 Y=3 Y=4 Y=5 Y=6 Y=7 Y=8 Y=9 Y=10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
Repetitio
n 1
100 300 100 300 100 300 100 300 100 300 100 300 100 300 100 300 100 300 100 300 100 300Time [days]
Fra
cti
on
Y = Number not recalled words
Word Recall Test
Commands TestSummary Score
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Benefits of the IRT Approach
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Handle the True Nature of the Score
• Bounded nature of each subcomponent is taken into account
Summary score distribution is more natural26
Occasion 1
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
Occasion 2 Occasion 3
Occasion 6Occasion 5Occasion 4
ADAS-cog Score
De
ns
ity
Simulated
Observed
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Increased Power
• Method:
1. Simulation from longitudinal
IRT model with disease
modifying drug effect of 20 %
(n=500)
2. Estimation with full and
reduced IRT model
3. Estimation with full and
reduced Summary Score
model
Increased Power when using
IRT model
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40%
60%
80%
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Approach Summary
ScoreIRT
Number of Individuals
Po
wer
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Improved Clinical Trial Simulations
• Approach delivers test &
subject specific parameters
Simulate different
populations & different
ADAS-cog assessments
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70 %
80 %
84 % 85 % 86 % 87 %
Pow
er
90 %
ADAS-cog11 ADAS-cog13
Mild AD MCI
*600 Subjects (300/300), 20% drug effect DM
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Integrating Information Across Trials
• Combination of data across
trials easily possible
• Other cognitive tests like
MMSE can be related to
same hidden variable
MMSE assessments
become additional
observations
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COGNITIVE
DISABILITY
ADAS-cog
ADAS-cog11
ADAS-cog13
ADAS-cogmod
ADAS-cogmci
MMSE
*
* Work in Progress
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Advanced Optimal Trial Design
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COGNITIVE
DISABILITY
• Each response function
is dependent on D
• Calculate Fisher
Information for each item:
• Measure of information
content in each item
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Item Information
Cognitive Disability
Info
rma
tio
n
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Commands
Delayed Word Recall
Remembering
Word Recognition
-4 -2 0 2 4
Comprehension
Ideational Praxis
Spoken Language
-4 -2 0 2 4
Concentration
Naming
Word Finding
-4 -2 0 2 4
Construction
Orientation
Word Recall
-4 -2 0 2 4
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Information for a MCI Study
Cognitive Disability
Info
rma
tio
n
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Commands
Delayed Word Recall
Remembering
Word Recognition
-4 -2 0 2 4
Comprehension
Ideational Praxis
Spoken Language
-4 -2 0 2 4
Concentration
Naming
Word Finding
-4 -2 0 2 4
Construction
Orientation
Word Recall
-4 -2 0 2 432
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Component Ranking for MCI Study
Test Information
Delayed Word Recall 4.651539
Word Recall 3.842586
Orientation 1.655941
Word Recognition 1.285888
Naming 0.840697
Number Cancellation 0.414947
Construction 0.291493
Word Finding 0.20777
Ideational Praxis 0.184183
Concentration 0.177565
Remembering 0.164553
Comprehension 0.162216
Commands 0.157477
Spoken Language 0.104431
• Allows adaptation of the test
to a specific population
• Test can be performed
quicker with little change in
information content
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Summary
34
Advantages
• Treat true nature of data (better
simulation properties)
• Increased drug effect detection
power
• More flexible clinical trial
simulations
• Possibility to optimize test
design
• Implicit mechanism for missing
sub-scores
Parkinson’s
Model
Drug Effect
Model
UPDRS IRT Model
Extension:
Rheumatoid
Arthritis Model
Drug Effect
Model
ACR IRT Model
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Acknowledgements
• Colleagues in Uppsala
• Pfizer colleagues in Groton
35