Application Landscape Ecology in Forest Management: A Glass Half Empty?
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Transcript of Application Landscape Ecology in Forest Management: A Glass Half Empty?
Application Landscape Ecology in Forest Management: A Glass Half Empty?
Thomas Spies
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Landscapes• What are they?
• Why important?
• Management Applications
• Challenges
• Opportunities
What are landscapes?
• Spatially Heterogeneous ecosystems
• 102 ~ 105 ha; part of spatial hierarchy
• Human influences
• Species and process dependent
Forest Plantations on SiuslawNational Forest
Why Landscapes?
• Flows of species and processes across landscapes
• Stand/patch level constrained by landscape level
• High variability in forests
• Forests provide multiple and sometimes conflicting ecosystem services
Sink
SourceSink
Sink
SinkSource
Sink
Sink
Sink
Cold air drainage in mountains affects expected changes in temperature under
climate change
KnowlesCreekSweet
Creek
< 5%10%15%>15%
Debris Flow Delivery Probability
We’ve Excelled at Landscape Planning
Deschutes Forest Plan Allocations NWFP Allocations
But, that was the Easy Part
Challenges for Further Application Landscape Ecology in Forest
Management
• Dynamics (e.g Disturbance and Climate)
• Reference condition/Goals
• Multi-owner Landscapes
• Uncertainty and flexibility
< 10
11 - 40
41 - 80
81 - 200> 200
Stand Age
Three CenturiesOf SimulatedPre-ColumbianFire History inOregon CoastRange
By Nonaka Wimberly and Spies
Dynamics
Historical Range of VariabilityOregon Coast Range
% of Landscape
Early Seral: 10-25%
Old Growth: 35-60%
% of Landscape
Pro
babi
lity
Area and Aggregation
Pat
ch P
roxi
mity
and
Sha
pe C
ompl
exity
NOW
Can We Go Back? Forests 200-450 years old in the Coast Range
Based on Nonaka and Spies 2005
100 yrCurrent Policy Scenario
100 yr
Wildfire Scenario
250 y
400 y150 y
Historical Range of Variation
Climate Change
.
Littell et al. 2009
Douglas-fir at risk under future climateRange of Alaska Yellow Cedar
HRV
•Waypoint rather than Endpoint – Reference point for navigation to
destination
•Other Waypoints– Future Range of Variability
– Social Acceptability
Reference Conditions/Goals
Future Range of Variation (FRV)
Estimated range of ecological conditions in future given climate change, land-use change
and social acceptability
Resilience Instead of RestorationEvolving Scientific Perspectives
• Engineering Resilience
• Ecological Resilience
• Socio-EcologicalResilience
Based on Folke 2006
Met
ric
Metric 1
Met
ric
2
Metric 1
Met
ric
2
Time
Multi-ownership Landscapes
Owner Policy Goals Strategy
USFS and BLM
State of Oregon
Private. Industrial and Non-Industrial
NewForestplans
Forest
Practices
Act
NW Forest Plan Forest Plans
Healthy forestsIndigenous speciesAbundant timberT&E speciesPriority to growth and harvest of treesProtect environmentand fish/wildlife
LS/OG T&E species Aquatic Commodities
Structure-based management
Hab. Cons. PlanRetain trees in clearcuts,
Streamside protection rules
Reserves Matrix Gr-Tree retention AMA
Coastal Oregon
Multi-ownership Landscapes
Vegetation Classes1996 – Initial Period
Base PolicyGNN
Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants
Vegetation Classes2046 Base Policy
Simulated
Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants
Vegetation Classes2096
Base PolicySimulated
Not SimulatedOpen ForestBroadleafMixed SmallMixed MediumMixed LargeMixed Very LargeConifer SmallConifer MediumConifer Large Conifer Very LargeMixed Very SmallConifer Very SmallRemnants
Potential changes in 100 years as % of initial conditions
++
+
Percent Change
Policy Scenarios
2. Increased Green Tree Retention on Private Lands
3. No Restoration thinning on Federal Lands
1. Base policy What the managers are doing now
Northern Spotted Owl (H9) HCI > 36--All Owners
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
Initial Year 25 Year 50 Year 75 Year 100
Time
He
cta
res
0305 Base 0305 NFT 0305 LT3
Western Bluebird (H6) HCI > 29
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Initial Year 25 Year 50 Year 75 Year 100
Time
Hec
tare
s
Base NFT LT3
Olive-sided Flycatcher (H6) HCI > 19
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
Initial Year 25 Year 50 Year 75 Year 100
Time
Hecta
res
Base NFT LT3
Current policy
Green tree retention
No Fed thinning
Potential Effects of Alternative
Scenarios on Bird Habitat
Northern Spotted Owl
Western Blue Bird
Olive-sided Flycatcher
Applications of Landscape Ecology in Forest Management
• What has worked?– Spatial pattern through
allocation and zoning
– Recognizing process for some species/components
• What has not yet worked well?– Implementing dynamics-
based approaches
– Revising allocations based on new knowledge
– Working across boundaries
– Adaptive management
Changing Landscape Management Plans is Scary
NWFPBlue River Plan Social Reaction
Barriers to Implementation of Landscape Concepts
• Social/Political
• Economic
• Institutional
Uncertainty: Not an Excuse for Inaction
• Embrace it • Landscape management
as experiment
• Learn and adapt in each successive cycle of management.
• Scenario planning and dialog
Scenario Planning
Opportunities
• New technologies to visualize landscapes and scenarios
• Collaboratives may increase range of social acceptability
• Implement on small landscapes and less controversial projects