Apple “THE OUTLOOK”€¦ · RTD Tea Drinks + 103,3% Changing rate 2014-2018F in % Growth for...
Transcript of Apple “THE OUTLOOK”€¦ · RTD Tea Drinks + 103,3% Changing rate 2014-2018F in % Growth for...
Apple “THE OUTLOOK”
Piotr Podoba, General Manager Poland, Döhler Group
PROGNOSFRUIT
August 2018
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STRENGTHS
• 2’nd flavor in the world• 1’st filler in juices• Global product• Lower risk through good
possibilities of global sourcing
• Standardized quality
WEAKNESSES
• Strong price fluctuation • The drop in demand
(mature markets) • Excessive fragmentation of
producers• Main crop regions growing
table varieties
OPPORTUNITIES
• High price of orange conc.• New apple orchards acreage• Global roll out 50% apple
Spritzers (Lower cal.)• Increase of NFC
consumption• The varieties play
THREATS
• Increasing production capacity
• Fresh Fruit consumption• Consolidation of customers• Differences in exchange
rates
Apple: The AnalysisSWOT Analysis of Apple JC & NFC Market
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APPLE THE GLOBAL CONSUMPTION
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GEOGRAPHYSPLIT within Apple Flavours 2018F
TOP CATEGORIES within Apple Flavours 2013 – 2018F
Apple: The Global ConsumptionTop Categories & Geography Split of Apple Flavours 2018F
6.545,98 6.629,22 6.527,53 6.452,78 6.438,65 6.136,28
1.241,49 1.196,26 1.126,21 1.092,20 1.136,79 1.122,17
,00
2.000,00
4.000,00
6.000,00
8.000,00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
FRUIT BASED DRINKS VOLUME IN MIO LITERS
Apple Apple Variants
6.905,22 6.890,15 6.673,45 6.524,47 6.491,97 6.473,81
574,11 614,08 658,43 693,39 749,33 784,63
,00
1.000,00
2.000,00
3.000,00
4.000,00
5.000,00
6.000,00
7.000,00
8.000,00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
FRUIT BASED DRINKS with Apple Volume in mio Ltrs
From Concentrate NFC
Region VolumeChanging rate
(2014/2018F)
Asia 1,948 -3.52%
East Europe 1,418 -6.50%
West Europe 1,363 -6.93%
North America 1,176 -11.66%
Latin America 764 -1.83%
Middle East, North Africa 310 -10.12%
Australasia 218 -21.84%
Africa 62 -33.06%
Total Apple Volume in mio Ltrs
FRUIT BASED DRINKS
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Carbonates
+ 65,86%
Apple: The Global ConsumptionGlobal Development of Apple/Apple Mixes per Region (2014 – 2018F)
Asia
Energy drinks -41,89%
Juices
+ 3,71%
Enhanced waters
+ 88,64% Still Drinks
+ 36,68% (Total)
EuropeEnergy Drinks
+36,71%
RTD Tea Drinks-45,65%
North
America
Latin
America
Flavored Water 15,97%
RTD Tea Drinks + 43,38%
Sport Drinks+ 18,35%
Still Drinks
+ 33,33%
Energy Drinks
+ 10,45%
Enhanced Water
56,07%
MENASport Drinks
+ 32,49%
RTD Tea Drinks
+ 103,3%
Changing rate 2014-2018F in %
Growth for Apple as ingredient & Flavourwithin Emerging categories
Carbonates
-17,82%Juices
-32,45%
Squashs/Syrups-42,43%
Juices
+ 11,8%
Nectars
-27,98%
Still Drinks
-7,27%
Juices
-15,27%
Squashs/Syrups-19,72%
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APPLE JUICE CONCENTRATE
THE GLOBAL PRODUCTION & TRADE
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Apple: The Global Trade AJC Volume flow worldwide (1,000 mt) as it used to be
Source: World Apple Review, Belrose, Inc.
40
20-100
140-200
40
180-250
55-7520-50
60
30
20-30
China
EU
USA
55-100
Others
Others 45275-320
PL RU
80– 90
15-90
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Apple: The Global Trade China Exports of AJC in MT by Destination Sep 2017/march 2018Difference in % vs. 2016/17
CHINA
Germany
26.600; +375%
Spain 561
Netherlands
22.500; +681%
Australia 26.625
South Africa 33.625
United States
186.000
+17%
Canada
35.750, +148%
Russia 56.080
+ 12%
TOTAL: 580.000 mt
Source: World Apple Review 2017,S. 135
Poland 17 000
no import in 2016/17
Ukraine 9.900
no import in 2016/17
Turkey 16.500
no import in 2016/17
Other countries
149.420
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Apple juice concentrate
Global production, 2002-2017
*CAGR 2010/2015 - **where Flavours matches one or more of [Apple, Apple (Baked), Apple (Green), Apple (Red), Apple Crumble, Apple Pie, Apple Strudel, Cherimoya/Custard Apple] as the flavour
Source: World Apple Review 2018, Belrose, Inc.:
Global production 2002-2017(1.000 metric tons)
1.550 1.600
1.950
1.680
2.100 2.120
1.800
1.650 1.600
1.550 1.600
1.500
1.375 1.457 1.490
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
Volume ( 1.000 mt)
1.190
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Apple juice concentrate
Production in Poland, 2005-2018
*CAGR 2010/2015 - **where Flavours matches one or more of [Apple, Apple (Baked), Apple (Green), Apple (Red), Apple Crumble, Apple Pie, Apple Strudel, Cherimoya/Custard Apple] as the flavour
Source: KUPS/CAAC:
Production in Poland 2005-2018(1.000 metric tons)
170
218
97
268
191
125
200
275
235
285 290
270
130
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Volume ( 1.000 mt)
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LET‘S BRING APPLES TO LIFE
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Notice:
Though the material has been acquired most accurate,Döhler provides no warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability for any purpose of any information contained in this document. The information contained herein are for informational purposes only and subject to change without notice. © Döhler