APPenDIX eConomIC InDICAtorS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES … · 20 QUARTERLY INVESMENT SRATEGY Second...
Transcript of APPenDIX eConomIC InDICAtorS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES … · 20 QUARTERLY INVESMENT SRATEGY Second...
18 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015
Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
46
50
54
Dec12
Jun1
3
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
Dec12
Jun1
3
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
42
46
50
54
58
-10
-5
0
5
10
Dec12
Jun1
3
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
-10
-5
0
5
10
Dec12
Jun1
3
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
-8
-4
0
4
8
Dec12
Jun1
3
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
-4
0
4
8
12
Dec12
Jun1
3
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
eConomIC InDICAtorSAPPenDIX
DEVELOPED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIESPurchasing managers’ Index Purchasing managers’ Index
Industrial Production growth (YoY%) Industrial Production growth (YoY%)
real gDP growth (QoQ%, saar)* real gDP growth (QoQ%, saar)*
*For some economies, annualised GDP data were estimated by UOBAM. For India, data are in year-on-year percentages (YoY%). Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.
US Eurozone Japan
US Eurozone Japan
US Eurozone Japan
ChinaBrazil Russia India China HSBC
ChinaBrazil Russia India
ChinaBrazil Russia India
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.
19QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015
UOB Asset Management
-2
0
2
4
Dec12
Jun1
3
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
Dec12
Jun1
3
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
0
4
8
12
16
DEVELOPED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIES
Country Interest rate Current rate (%pa)
Latest meeting
Change at Latest mtg (bp) Last Change next meeting
3-Mar-2015
United States Fed Funds Target Rate US 0.250 28 Jan 2015 — 16 Dec 08 (-75bp) 19 Mar 2015
eurozone Refinance Rate 0.050 5 Mar 2015 — 4 Sep 14 (-10bp) 15 Apr 2015
Japan BOJ Overnight Call Rate 0.100 17 Jun 2013 — 19 Dec 08 (-20bp) —
United Kingdom UK Official Bank Rate 0.500 6 Mar 2015 — 5 Mar 09 (-50bp) 9 Apr 2015
Brazil Brazil Selic Target Rate 12.750 4 Mar 2015 50 4 Mar 15 (+50bp) 29 Apr 2015
russia Russia Refinancing Rate Announcement 8.250 13 Sep 2013 — 13 Sep 12 (+25bp) —
India Repurchase Rate 7.500 28 Feb 2015 (25) 4 Mar 15 (-25bp) —
China 1 Year Benchmark Lending 5.350 — — 2 Mar 15 (-25bp) —
South Africa South Africa Repo Avg Rate 5.750 6 Mar 2015 — 17 Jul 14 (+25bp) 26 Mar 2015
Inflation - CPI (YoY%) Inflation - CPI (YoY%)
Central Banks Interest rates
Source: Bloomberg, as at 3 March 2015
US Eurozone Japan ChinaBrazil Russia India
20 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015
Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
87
92
97
102
107
112
117
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
94
99
104
109
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
92
97
102
107
112
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
98
103
108
113
118
Dec13
Jun1
4
Dec14
mArKet PerFormAnCeDEVELOPED MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS
equity Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)
equity Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)
Fixed Income Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)
Fixed Income Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)
Commodity Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)
Dollar Index Spot(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.
USA 15.8%
AC World 8.2%
em 1.4%Japan 4.2%
europe -0.3%
Sg govt -3.5%
Asia 10.1%
Sovereigns -1.9%g7 gBI -1.4%
High yield 4.9%
Inv grade -0.4%
energy -43.3%
gold 0.6%
gSCI Light Index -23.0%Agriculture -15.7%Industrial metals -12.1%
emerging mkts 9.4%
Corporate 5.1%
Sovereigns 11.0%
High yield -1.1%
Inv grade 9.6%
Asia eX Japan 9.5%
em 1.4%
em europe -26.0%
em Latin Am -14.3% Ind
exIn
dex
Ind
ex
Ind
exIn
dex
Ind
ex
21QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015
UOB Asset Management
eQUIty mArKet InDICAtorSDEVELOPED MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS
earnings revision by regions for Fy2 earnings revision by regions for Fy2
earnings revision by Sectors for Fy2 earnings revision by Sectors for Fy2
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.
% Change% Change
% Change % Change
-40 -36 -32 -28 -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4
IT
Cons Discr
Health Care
Financials
Utilities
Telecom
Industrials
Cons Staples
MSCI World
Materials
Energy
Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth
-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4
JAPAN
WORLD
EUROPE
US
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth
-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0
AC ASIA EX JAPAN
CHINA
INDIA
EMERGING MARKETS
LATIN AMERICA
BRAZIL
EMEA
RUSSIA
Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
IT
Health Care
Utilities
Cons Staples
Financials
Cons Discr
Industrials
MSCI Emerging Markets
Telecom
Materials
Energy
Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth
*Mean and SD are based on data from 1999.
22 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015
Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
Developed markets earnings yield ratio* emerging markets earnings yield ratio*
P/Bv vs roe by region P/e vs growth by region
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Utilities Telecom Svcs
Materials Industrials
Energy IT
AC World
Financials
10.0x
11.0x
12.0x
13.0x
14.0x
15.0x
16.0x
17.0x
18.0x
19.0x
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32%
PE
R (F
Y2)
EPS CAGR FY1-3 (%)
Consumer Discr
P/Bv vs roe by Sector P/e vs growth by Sector
Feb-15, 3x
Feb-15, 2.1xmean +1SD, 3.3x
mean +1SD, 2.2x
mean, 2.1x
mean, 1.7x
mean -1SD, 0.9x
mean -1SD, 1.1x
VALUATION
AC World
World
US
Europe
Japan
Australia Canada
Asia Ex Japan
Latin America
EMEA 1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%
P/B
V -
FY
1 (X
)
ROE - 2yr Forward Avg. (%)
AC World
World
US
Europe Japan
Australia Canada
Asia Ex Japan
Latin America
EMEA 9x
10x
11x
12x
13x
14x
15x
16x
4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%
PE
R F
Y2
(X)
EPS CAGR FY1-3 (%)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Consumer Discr
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Industrials
IT
Materials
Telecom Svcs
Utilities
AC World
0.8x
1.2x
1.6x
2.0x
2.4x
2.8x
3.2x
3.6x
4.0x
7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21%
P/B
V -
FY
1 (X
)
ROE - 2yr Forward Avg. (%)
HealthcareHealthcare
23QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015
UOB Asset Management
0
1
2
3
4
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
42
4
6
8
10
12
14
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
200
250
300
350
400
450
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4200
250
300
350
400
450
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
US
Austra
lia
Eurozo
ne
Franc
e
Switzer
land
Germ
any
Japan
-18
-13
-8
-3
2
7
12
17
South
Africa
Thaila
nd
Mex
ico
Mala
ysia
China
India
South
Korea
Philip
pines
Taiw
an
Indone
siaBra
zil
Russia
FIXeD InCome mArKet InDICAtorS
Developed markets 10-year government yield (%) emerging markets 10-year govenment yield (%)
Developed markets real government yield (%) emerging markets real government yield (%)
emerging markets (USD) yield and Credit Spread Asia (USD) yield and Credit Spread
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.
JACI Spread (bps) - RHSJACI Yield (%)
10-Year Govt Bond Yield Real Govt Bond YieldCPI
JPMorgan EMBI Yield (%) JPMorgan EMBI Spread (bps) - RHS
ChinaBrazil Russia IndiaUS Euro Japan UK
10-Year Govt Bond Yield CPI Real Govt Bond Yield
24 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015
Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
emerging markets (Local Currency) Bond yield Asia (Local Currency) Bond yield
Dollar Index Spot (Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013) g-10 FX against US Dollar
emerging markets FX against US Dollar Asia FX against US Dollar
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.
-7.7
-7.5
-7.3
-6.6
-4.4
-3.0
-2.5
-0.9
0.0
4.3
-9 -5 -1 3
Danish Krone
Euro
Canadian Dollar
Swedish Krona
Australian Dollar
New Zealand Dollar
Norwegian Dollar
British Pound
Japanese Yen
Swiss Franc
-7.2
-6.8
-5.7
-4.9
-4.4
-3.4
-1.3
-1.2
-8 -4 0
Brazilian Real
Turkish Lira
Russian Ruble
Colombian Peso
Polish Zloty
Hungarian Forint
Mexican Peso
South African Rand
-4.6-3.2
-2.7-1.0-0.7
0.00.0
0.51.61.7
2.5
-6 -4 -2 0 2
Indonesian RupiahMalaysian RinggitSingapore DollarChinese RenminbiSouth Korean WonHong Kong DollarJapanese YenTaiwanese DollarPhilippines PesoThai BahtIndian Rupee
JPMorgan GBI-EM Bond Yield (%) HSBC Asian Local Bond Yield (%)
5
6
6
7
7
8
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
98
103
108
113
118
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
CURRENCIES
Ind
ex
% change versus USD from 31 Dec 14 to 28 Feb 15
% change versus USD from 31 Dec 14 to 28 Feb 15 % change versus USD from 31 Dec 14 to 28 Feb 15
25QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015
UOB Asset Management
10
15
20
25
30
35
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
US
D p
er t
onn
es
To
nnes
(Tho
usan
ds)
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
US
D p
er t
onn
es
To
nnes
(Mill
ions
)
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
450
100
150
0
40
80
120
US
D p
er t
onn
es
To
nnes
(Mill
ions
)
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
300
500
700
900
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
450
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
2
4
6
8
10
Mill
ions
Bar
rels
/Day
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13
Dec-1
3
Jun-
14
Dec-1
4
CommoDIty mArKet InDICAtorS
Brent Crude oil Price and Production Agriculture Price (USD)
Precious metal Price (USD) Copper Price (USD)
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.
Bloomberg OPEC Crude Oil Production Output/Saudia ArabiaDOE EIA US Crude Oil ProductionBrent Crude Oil (USD) - RHS
Corn Wheat Soyabeans - RHS
Gold Silver - RHS LME Copper Inventories LME Copper Spot - RHS
LME Aluminium Inventories LME Aluminium Spot - RHS
China Iron Ore Ports InventoryAustralia CIF Prices - RHS
Aluminum Price (USD) Iron ore Price (USD)