Appendix 2. Individual case dynamics - Ecology and Society
18
Appendix 2. Individual case dynamics This appendix contains causal loop diagrams (CLDs) detailing the dynamics of each of the three wetlands restoration and management case studies. Individual direct causal relationships were identified in the raw data and then integrated into networks of causal relationships (i.e. CLDs). These networks were then thematically aggregated within cases, i.e. highly similar concepts were aggregated and conceptually similar dynamics were grouped into rough themes using open coding techniques. These themes correspond largely to the core processes and key drivers identified in the final analysis. The CLDs presented in this appendix illustrate this thematic coding process, although there is considerable overlap between the CLDs, with many concepts repeated throughout the figures (i.e. these concepts bridge across the thematic groups). Figure 3 (from main paper). The CLDs in this appendix describe intermediate results, i.e. integrated networks of cause-effect relationships per case, prior to analysis of key system dynamics and across case aggregation. It is important for readers to keep in mind that these CLDs represent an intermediate step in our analytical process, i.e. prior to subsequent aggregation procedures across the cases to identify the core dynamics, and have not been “cleaned up” for publication. These intermediate data are provided as an appendix to allow readers to more easily understand how the raw data has been transformed towards the final results, and for readers to glean additional insights from more detailed accounts of the dynamics of different wetlands restoration and management initiatives. Interview transcripts/ Field notes Individual direct cause-effect relationships Open-coding Integrated networks of cause-effect relationships (i.e. CLDs) per case Qualitative system dynamics Aggregated CLDs of key system dynamics across cases Interviews/ Field Excursions Key system dynamics per case Comparative analysis Group modelling workshops generate identify integrate & aggregate review & augment analyse review & augment analyse Methods Raw Data Intermediate results Final results
Transcript of Appendix 2. Individual case dynamics - Ecology and Society
Appendix2.IndividualcasedynamicsThis appendix contains causal loop diagrams (CLDs) detailing the dynamics of each of the
three wetlands restoration and management case studies. Individual direct causal relationships
were identified in the raw data and then integrated into networks of causal relationships (i.e.
CLDs). These networks were then thematically aggregated within cases, i.e. highly similar
concepts were aggregated and conceptually similar dynamics were grouped into rough themes
using open coding techniques. These themes correspond largely to the core processes and key
drivers identified in the final analysis. The CLDs presented in this appendix illustrate this
thematic coding process, although there is considerable overlap between the CLDs, with
many concepts repeated throughout the figures (i.e. these concepts bridge across the thematic
groups).
Figure 3 (from main paper). The CLDs in this appendix describe intermediate results, i.e. integrated networks of cause-effect relationships per case, prior to analysis of key system dynamics and across case aggregation.
It is important for readers to keep in mind that these CLDs represent an intermediate step in
our analytical process, i.e. prior to subsequent aggregation procedures across the cases to
identify the core dynamics, and have not been “cleaned up” for publication. These
intermediate data are provided as an appendix to allow readers to more easily understand how
the raw data has been transformed towards the final results, and for readers to glean additional
insights from more detailed accounts of the dynamics of different wetlands restoration and
management initiatives.
Interview transcripts/Field notes
Individual direct cause-effect relationships
Open-coding
Integrated networks of cause-effect relationships (i.e. CLDs) per case
Qualitative systemdynamics
Aggregated CLDs of key system dynamics across cases
Interviews/ Field Excursions
Key system dynamics per case
Comparative analysis
Group modelling workshops
generate
identify
integrate &aggregate
review & augment
analyse
review &augment
analyse
Met
hods
Raw Data
Intermediateresults
Finalresults
Govt investmentin fire fighting
Fire damage and consequent problems
Lack of govtcoordination
strict allocationof budget only for
fire fighting measures(certain ministries)
+
++
reporting ofproblems/
law-breakingetc
Institutionalised“Culture of
silence”
-
Implementation
permission todevelop & implementplans (i.e.
permission tospend avail.
funds)support of
central auths.
support ofMinistry of Nat. Res
& Env. Protection
Permitsissued
support oflocal auths.
Requiredpermits
Bureaucraticprocesses
Conflict resolutionin favour of project
+
+ -
-
+
+
++
-
delay
+
++
+
Conflicts+
Broad support at many levels
of govt
conflictingagendas/ interests/ opinions
Problemsresulting poor
state of wetlands
Localindifference
Localsconcern about
wetland+
+
+
- --
+
+
+
Perceived trade-offs with
peat mining
-
Managementplan
Experts/Orgs/ NGOs
Initialfunds
planinitiation
Academyof Science
Flexible, iterativeplanningprocess
Adoption ofParticipatoryprocess norm
involvement ofdiff actors indiscussions
Complexity
Need formultiple
perspectives
Support oflocal land-owners,
tenants, community
+
++
+ ++
+
++
+
++
+
+
Publicconsultation
+
++
State choosesresponsible
NGO
Involvement ofNGOs
Planapproval
+
++
NGO goodcooperationwith auths.
Alignment of NGO/project agenda/ goals
withcurrent state objectives
***NGO’s cont.existence
+
+
+
+
NGO “trynot to go
into politics” NGO partnershipswith political orgs.
Avail.Choice ofsponsors
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
Avail. Statefunding for
nature protection
Econ./Socialdev. priority
focus at state level
Funding applications
-
-
Formulation ofproject plans toinclude social
aspectsAvail. fundingfor business dev./community dev./gender issues/
democracy dev./etc etc etc
+
+
+
State lackof willingness
to act (onenviron. issues)
-
Influence ofNGO (power)over projectplanning &
implementationSize ofRole ofNGO
NGOs Ability toinfluence
key actors(incl. authorities)
Change opinionsof key players/
society in general
Available knowledge
Successfuloutcomes
***NGOcontinuedexistence
++
+
+
+
+
+
+delay
+
+
delay
+
+
(all kindsof support)
Naturalresource
extraction
Quality ofmanagement
inputs
Access tomarket/demand
+Privateownership
of Nat. Res.
Privatesector
+
Productionoptimisation
paradigm
+
Strictnessof Belarusregulation
-
Intern.Designation/recognition/legislation/
etc
+Strength of NationalNature
protection
-
-
+
+
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:1. Case Bogs, Theme: Institutional and regulatory frameworks
Coca Colafunds
UNDPfunds
Coca Cola routes fundsthru UNDP
+
+
+
+
Permanentfunding for
admin
+
initiateproject
GEF/ EU/UNDP
Support ofCoca Cola
Support ofC.C CEO
Advertising+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Avail.Choice ofsponsors +
PR return oninvestment
-+
Implementation
Need for small-scale experiments
-
Volunteercamps
Dams etc/restoration
work
+
Identification ofdrains/ plan
+
Wetlandfunction/
health-
+
AvailableFunds
Decline inBirds
-
Royal OrnithologicalSociety (ENG) concerns
+
+Dutch
ministry
Avail.Experts
-
+
Originalidea of
local directorto apply for
Royal Societyfunds
+
Funding Applications
+
++
-
+
need ofmanuallabour
+
Avail.Special
excavatorbog – risk for
machines
+
-
+
avail.small excavators
in Belarus
-
+
Robust, transparent,BELARUS financial
institutions[Tax, financial
donation incentives]
+
Efforts ofProject
Leadership
Ministry of Environinitiates
Nature reserveadministration
Reserveadmin+
++
+
profile offestival
Festival
support fromexecutivecouncil
+
+
UNproject
learn ofLatvian festivals
(inspiration)
Minister notwanting to
be embarrassed
+ +
effort andfunds investedin local festival
++
+
+
+
recreationalfishers
incomepotentialfor nature
reserve admin.
+
+
Initialfunds
Ministry ofNatural
Resources
++
Involvement ofBL NGOs
+
+
-
State choosesNGO to beresponsible
Avail. Statefunding for
nature protection
Econ./Socialdev. priority
focus at state level
NGO/project needof financing
Externalfunding
partners/sponsors
Volunteers
Formulation ofproject plans toinclude social
aspects
Avail. fundingfor business dev./community dev./gender issues/
democracy dev./etc etc etc
+
+
++
-
-
+
Avail. fundsper source
Number ofapplications
OverallProject becomes
series of smallprojects, each withtwinned social-ecol.
goals +
+
- +State
funding
+
+
-
Statecapacity
Project Plans tosatisfy state requirements State lack
of willingnessto act
NGOswillingness
to act+
-
+
+
+
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:2. Case Bogs, Theme: Financing, funds, inputs
Adequacy ofContacts/Network
internationalcollaborations
+
[e.g. with Birdlife International]
idea oflocal volunteer“keepers” of
important birdhabitat areas
Localkeepers
UNDP funds EU funds
Keeperprojects
Localenthusiasts
Website forkeeper registration& communication
reporting ofproblems/
law-breakingetc
Keeperstrained to/intended to
report problems/infractions etc
Local auths.prohibit employeesfrom complaining
Local bossesdon’t want
trouble
Keepers (& NGO)perceived as
trouble-makers
+
++ +
++
+
+
+
+
-
-
Institutionalised“Culture ofsilence”/
Fear of reprisal/“sit down and shut up”
+
+ -
+
-
Accessibilityof swamp
recreationalfishers
incomepotentialfor nature
reserve admin.
organisedfishing
Use of swampbuggies
Big Fish
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
Regenerationrate of fish pops
++
delay
Illegal activities/Disturbance
of nature(noise, fires,garbage, etc)
Declinein Birds
+
+
+Lack of considerationof needs of specific
bird species in management plan
+
Tourist infrastructure(esp. paths) +
Visitorsstick topaths
-
+
+
VolunteercampsDams etc/
restorationwork
+
Identification ofdrains/ plan
+
Drainage
-
Peatdegradation
valleys
+
+
+
delay
Historicalagric.
reforms
+
Wetlandfunction/
health -
-
Fires
-
-
PRvalue +
Attraction forCoca Cola
+
AvailableFunds
+
Birds
+
Royal OrnithologicalSociety (ENG) concerns
-
+
Dutch ministry
Experts-+
Originalidea of
local directorto apply for
Royal Societyfunds
+
Funding Applications
++
+
- +
Drought
-
need ofmanuallabour
+
Avail.Special
excavatorbog – risk for
machines
+
-
+
avail.small excavators
in Belarus
-
Volunteers+
Social/culturalevent
+
+
Diversityof volunteers
(artists, musicians,etc)
+
+
Yelnya asunifying
experience/place
+
Local concernabout wetland
+
Locals &outsiders
mixing andlearning/creating+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
Visitors profile offestival
+
+
internationalvisitors
++
Documentaryfilm
++
Popularity/visibility of
Yelnya “brand”
+
educationalevents
about cranes
+
Experts whocan lead
educationalevents
(cranes)
+
Crane-watching
proximity ofcranes to
towns
++
+
+
Authoritiesprovide
free transportto crane events
+
districtadopt
crane as symbol +
Idea forFestival
Crane/cranberries
pun
+Huge flocksof cranes
+
emotionalexperience+
+
**Wetlandhealth
+
specialplace forberries
+
+
Festival
+
support fromexecutivecouncil
+
+
+
UNproject
learn ofLatvian festivals
(inspiration)
Minister notwanting to
be embarrassed+
+
effort andfunds investedin local festival
+ ++
+
+ +
+
+
Cranberries
locallivelihoods
idea tofocus on
local value-addedproduction
localproduction
lack of support oflocal authorities
+-
+
+
+
Watertable
-
+
Localuse
+ +
Ability topick
Nature reserve/protection status
-
+
Size of the bog
difficulty in obtaining sufficient finance for
projects
diversification/ break project into small
pieces
-
-
Size of project++
-
+
Number of sub-projects
+
+new projects/
ideas+
Management planformal/ official
acknowledgement of NGO and project
+Possibility to
attract sponsors +
+
+
Initial state sponsorship/ admin
funds
+
Co-funding opportunities
+
+
Flexible, iterative nature of management plan
document
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
+
Figure A2:3. Case Bogs, Theme: Implementation, activity rate
Volunteercamps
Dams etc/restoration
work
+
Drainage
-
Peatdegradation
valleys
+
+ -
delay
Historicalagric.
reforms
+
Qual. & Quant.Wetland
Ecosystem)
-
-
Frequency &Intensity of
Fires
-
PRvalue +
Attraction forCoca Cola
+
Birds +
Royal OrnithologicalSociety (ENG) concerns
-
Drought
-
Idea forFestival
Crane/cranberries
pun
+
Huge flocksof cranes
emotionalexperience
+
+
+
specialplace forberries
+
+
Govt investmentin fire fighting
Fire damage
Lack of govtcoordination
strict allocationof budget only for
fire fighting measures(certain ministries)
water ponds& fire lookout
towers
need for fire fighting investment
waterlevel
in bog
Coca Colainvestment
in hydrologicalbalance
(i.e. prevention)
advertisement in newspapers
Govtembarrassment/
anger
+
delay
+ delay
-
+
+
++
-
+
+
-
++
+
Cranberries
Climate
locallivelihoods
+
+
+
delay
Localuse
Accessibilityof swamp
-
+
+
Realisation thatentire bog is at
risk
Prioritisationof perceived
threat
GOAL:Save the bog!
implementation ofmeasures to save
the bog
indirect negative impacts of measures
on specific, keyspecies
key species
consideration ofimpacts on specific
species -
+-
++
+
+
Ecol.complexity
+
+
+
Visibility ofYelnya
+
RecreationalFishing
EcologicalDisturbance/degradation
Mushrooms
Suitability ofVegetation
compositionfor supporting
biodiversityvalue of bog
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
Naturalresource
extraction
GeneralQual. & Quant.
of Natural capital(biodiv./ES/etc)
Non-extractivebenefits avail.for power elite(e.g. hunting,
recreation) -
delay
+
-
+
Profit
Investment
Quality ofmanagement
inputs
Access tomarket/demand
SovietUnion
+
++
+
+
Privateownership
of Nat. Res.
+
- +
Privatesector
Demand
+
+
-
+
Productionoptimisation
paradigm
+
Strictnessof Belarusregulation
-
Areas ofinternationalsignificance
- Internat.Designation/recognition/legislation/
etc
+
+
Nature protection
+
BLprotection
Alignment ofprotection withcurrent goals
of power hierarchy
+
-
+
+
+
Monocultures
Side-effects/pollutants
(e.g. of chemicalusage)
-
-
+
+
Hurry!
-
+
-Organisedfishing
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:4. Case Bogs, Theme: Ecological system, Land use
Coca Colafunds
UNDPfunds
ease forCoca Cola
to route fundsthru UNDP
Efforts ofPL+
+
+
+
Implementation
+
+
Developmentof management
plan
+
Inspections
+
Inspections are notstate authority
Permanentfunding for
admin
-
Ministry of Environinitiates
Nature reserveadministration
+
Reserveadmin
+
+
+
**Wetlandfunction/
health
+
profile offestival
support fromexecutivecouncil
+
UNproject
learn ofLatvian festivals
(inspiration)
Minister notwanting to
be embarrassed
+
+
effort andfunds investedin local festival
+
+
++
+
local berryproduction
lack of support oflocal authorities
-
Royal Societyfor Birds NGO
initiateproject
avail.funds
GEF/ EU/UNDP
Support ofCoca Cola
Support ofC.C CEO
Yelnya “specialness”
Advertising
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
+
permission todevelop & implementplans (i.e.
permission tospend avail.
funds)
support ofcentral auths.
Permitsetc
support oflocal auths.
RequiredpermitsBureaucratic
processes
Conflict resolutionin favour of project
Keepers
Conflicts
Problems/infractions
+
++
+
- -+
+
++
-delay
+
+
++
-
+
Positive experience/connection for visitors
Support ofvisitors
Support ofhigh profile
visitors
Visibility of Yelnya/
project+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Support ofALL stateauthorities
conflictingagendas
of differentauthorities
perceivedimportance of
land-usesin conflict
with project(peat mining)
project visionprovides
real solutions to problems
SES Problemswith Yelnya
resulting frompoor state
of wetlands
Health ofWetlands “Nothing could have
made it worse”
Localindifference
Localsmake a
fuss
-
+
++
+++
-
--
-
-
Localsupport
Localuse
Accessibilityof swamp
Dams torestore
water balance
Watertable
+
-
+ +
Mobilisation ofpeople and resources
+
Support ofauthorities
Support ofEnviron. Ministry
Support ofMin. for EmergencyServices/ Min. for
Forestry
Environmentalnature of project
Perceivedsuccess of
project
Prevention offires
+
+
Problems stemmingfrom fires- -
envy atother ministries
+-
-
+
+
++++
+
-
+
+
Areamanagement
plan
Support oflocal land-owners,
tenants, community
+
++
Broad supportat many levels
+
Support ofvice-minister
public statements“necessary to save
Yelnya”
NGO petitioningministry/vice-minister
NGO goodcooperationwith auths.
NGO agendain harmony with
govt. goals/ agenda
NGO’s cont.existence
+
+ +
+
NGO “trynot to go
into politics”
NGO partnershipswith political orgs.
Avail.Choice ofsponsors
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
++
+
Projectoutcomes
Strength/Popularity of
Yelnya “brand”
diversity ofkey people
involved
Influence ofNGO over
projectplanning &
implementation
Development/planning trajectory
of project
+
+
-
Influence ofkey non-NGO
individuals
-
Multiplicity of interests
+
Projectunity/
consensus
-
Difficulty ofmanagement/
decision-makingprocesses
+
-
Adequacy ofleadership
-
+
+
State inaction
NGOs Ability toinfluence
authorities/sponsors/
Acad. of Science/etc
Change opinionsof key players/
society in general
knowledge
+
+
+
+
++delay
+
+
delay
+
+
Needof partners/
help
Willingness totake part
takingpart
clear benefitsof taking part
relative to needs
Emotional benefits
(good feelingfrom taking
part)
+
+
+
+
+
+
Excursionsto expose
(potential) partnersto Yelnya
++
+
NGO roleto maintain/
estab. relationswith partners
+
+
+
+
+
Coca Colaneed ofgood PRBusiness goals
of Coca Cola
+
+Public perceptionof Coca Cola asenvironmentally
responsible actor
-
+
PR return oninvestment
-+
+
+
PopularFocal
speciesStrength of
Project Narrative
Active creation/focusing work/
“what is unique/interesting?”
Identificationof unique
value/ (sellingpoint)
Outsideperspective
+
+
+ +
+
Communitypride in
Wetlands
+
+
Tourists/Visitors
Cranefestival
internationalisationfocus
Knowledgeof international
festivals/ tourism/etc
Yelnya in international
exhibition
internationalawareness
internationalresearch
Localincome
+
+
+
+++
+
+
+ +
++
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:5. Case Bogs, Theme: Support
Ecol. complexityof bog
Clear understandingof what needs to be
done
Environmental monitoring
-
-+
+
outcomes
Implementation
+
+
Number ofproblem
identifiers
Variation in perceptions/opinions
of what problemsare
+
-
Need for small-scale experiments
-
Avail. knowledge
+
availability & applicability of
foreign knowledge
Degree of differenceof local context compared
to foreign contexts(e.g. diff kinds of bogs)
-
+
identificationof amount of
funding required
Correctprioritisation
Plans leadto desiredoutcomesAvail.
funding
Avail.experts
Adequacy ofContacts/Network
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Presidentialdecree
BL joinsInternationalconventions
Strength ofprotection
status
BL need/ desireto be part of internationalcommunity
Nationalprotection
+
Alignment ofprotection withother priorities
Corruption
Alignment withtop-downinternational
collaborations
-
-
delay
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land UseFigure A2:6. Case Bogs, Theme: Learning, Knowledge
Whole supplychain
Avail.partners
Supportof authorities
++
Learningrate
project at interface between
science and industrybiodiversity
goals
burgeoningecon. & social
goals
+
+
Optimisation
Profitability
Implementation Activity
rate
+
privatepartners
Network ofwilling
partners
internationalpartners
Bureaucraticpartners
PermitsetcFinancing
Contacts
+
+
+
+ ++
+
++
+
+
+
+
Ruraldepopulation
Avail.trad.
knowledge
Youngpeople
moving tocities
Existentialthreat tovillages
local support(residents, farmers,agencies, districts,NGOs) for initiatives
to save village
Inclusion ofsocio-econ.
aims for projectplans
-delay
+
+
+
+
Avail.funds for ruralsocio-econ.development
projects
+
+
Visibilityof need for
saving swamps
Adequacy of communication
strategies
+
+
+
+
+
Sourcing/maintaining
good relations with Ministry
+
+
Interest atMinistrylevel inproject
outcomes
Novelty/innovation
+
presidentialexpression of
interest+ +
+
Charismatic/Popular
Focal species(Aquatic Warbler)
Awareness offocal species
Targeted Narrative
+
++
Interest of District
chairperson
+
Avail.support atMinistry
“if neededonly a phone
call away”
+
+
Approval ofMinistry
reporting
perceived appreciation at
Ministry forinnovative
approaches
Commercial viability
(profitability) ofreed project
Privatefinance
risk
Local businessinvolved in
meadow management
Project provides equip. for
meadow cutting +
Avail.Know-how
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
Degree ofpersonal
investmentin region
Strength ofindividualCultural &economic
ties to region
+
+
Attempts todevelop circulareconomic model
Leadership value:“economy is an
important aspect of any environmental
project”
+
Competitivenessof BL with similar
EU projects
Pressure onBL projects to
develop“truly” circularecon. model
Interest ofbusiness
community
Scale-up
-
+
+
delay
+
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land UseFigure A2:7. Case Birds, Theme: Support
Need tomaintain
openness ofmarshesVegetation/ Biomass
(trees, bushes,reeds, etc)
Implementation(Mowing/grazing
etc)
Avail.funds
+-
- +
Need oflong-termfunding
-
developproducts from
mowing &maintenance
based on biomass
+
+
+
+
-
+
Learning aboutwhat else is
needed to build a system
Investmentrequirements
+
+
+
Experience+delay
Preference forbusiness over
state orgs.
Organisationalreliance onactivity to
produce profit/results
State orgsactivity rate
+Businessactivity
rate
profit
++
- +
-
Lack of Avail.State
financing/subsidies
+
Low energyprice crisis
demand forbiomass
Access to EU market
Investment inequipment to
meet tech. standards
+
delay
New EUregs
+
Need of access to external
markets
+
-
Whole supplychain
Systemsperspective
Supportof authorities
++
+
+
-
+
+Learningrate
ability/ timeto experiment
Experimentationrate
+
+
Optimisation
Profitability
Activityrate
+
privatepartners
Network ofwilling
partners
internationalpartners
Bureaucraticpartners
Permitsetc
Financing
Contacts
Profitpressure
establishnon-commercial
enterprise
-
-
+
+
+
++ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
burgeoningecon. & social
goals
+
Consumerdemand
Commercial viability
(profitability) ofreed project
relative costof reed compared
to roofing alternativematerials
Econ.development
-
++
Project providesmachines
to make reedmats
+
investment
+
+
Loan-taking
+
Privatefinance
risk
-
+
Local businessinvolved in
meadow management
Project provides equip. for
meadow cutting
+
Access tomarkets
+
Avail.Know-how +
Start-up salariesfor staff
-
+-
Project Incomes
+
Fundingpartners
econ.feasibility/
cost effectivenessof project business
model
Unpredictablesocio-econ. complexity
(e.g. of oil price)
Risk
Risk assessment
Investmentburden
Scale ofinvestment/
cost of necessary
infrastructure(e.g. boiler)
Need for state/district
co-financing
looking forexternalpartners-
+ +
+
++
+
+
+
+
delay
delay
High cost ofbiodiversitypreservationAsk for
Ministry funds
Risk to trustworthinessof always asking Ministry for funds
GOAL: develop circulareconomic modelbased on swamp
resources
Perceived SympatheticAttitude of
administration & Ministry
Need forsubstitute econ.
activities that allow sustainability
Restrictionsto livelihoods
Leadership values:“economy is an
important aspect of any environmental
project”
Potential forcircular econ.from swampmanagement
[Sustainability]
+ delay
+
+
+
+
+-
++ ++
Perceivedfeasibility ofcurrent plan
Revise planon the run
Suddenchange inoil price
Historical demand
Forecasts of demand
(energy)
Strength ofInvestment
case
Exposure tounpredictable
price dynamics
Need fornew ideas
implementationdelays
Sunk costs
Time sinceplanning &
implementationstarted
Willingnessto revise
plan
+
+
+
+ -
-
+
-+
+
-
+
+
+
+
Competitivenessof BL with similar
EU projects
Avail.Subsidies
for EUprojects
Dependency ofEU projects on
subsidies
Economicsustainabilityof EU projects
EU projectsdisappear
when subsidiesend
Pressure onBL projects to
develop“truly” circularecon. model
Interest ofbusiness
community
Scale-up
BL willingnessto participate inopen/ external
market
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
delay
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:8. Case Birds, Theme: Financing, funds, inputs
Swamphealth
Biodiversity
Over-arching GOAL:Maintain
openness ofmarshes
wet meadows
Vegetation(trees, bushes,
reeds, etc)
Drainage
Mowing/grazing
etc
Avail.funds
+ -
+
--
- +
+-+
Need fornew ideas
knowledgetransfer
testing/experimenting
+
++
+
Leadership value:NGOs expectations
of what partner orgs SHOULD do(i.e. Collaboration
Norms)What NGO is
prepared to do
ImplementationActivity rate
+
-
ImplementationActivities ofpartner orgs.
Competenceof partner orgs
+
++
Project Knowledge/ Experience
+
Whole supplychains
+
Social-Ecol.complexity/uncertainty
Learningrate
avail.formal
knowledge
need totest under
local conditions
need to experiment
ability/ timeto experiment
project at interface between
science and industry
biodiversity goals
burgeoningecon. & social
goals
+
+
+
+
+
+-
++
+
Optimisation
Profitability
privatepartners
Network ofwilling
partners
internationalpartners
Bureaucraticpartners
Permitsetc
Financing
Contacts
Profitpressure
establishnon-commercial
enterprise
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
effectiveplanning
Quality &quantity ofoutcomes
Implementationcapacity
newequipment
+
-+
+++
-
Learning/testing/
adaption new equip.
-
+
Need to adaptequip. to
local conditions
+
+
Accidentrate
-
+
Multiplesupplychains(reeds, pellets,grass)
+
+
+
+
Degree ofpersonal
investmentin region
Strength ofindividualCultural &economic
ties to region
+
+
+
Local interest/ support
(residents, farmers,agencies, districts,
NGOs)
ProjectManagement
Tools
ActiveManagement
approachNature
protectionNORM
+
-
+
+
+
Revise planon the run
implementationdelays
++
+
--
GOAL: Sustainableuse of equip.
provisionof equip.
Contract
Fulfilmentof contract
Marketdynamics/access etc
Reliance onhelp/ champion
Projectdevelopment
personal interestof project team
Hope to earnsomething from
proj. in future(team)
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
Diversification of products/
services
Exposure to SES
complexity/ Uncertainty
+ +
+
Adaptability to market
fluctuations
+
-
+
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:9. Case Birds, Theme: Implementation, activity rate
Swamphealth
BiodiversityNeed tomaintain
openness ofmarshes
wet meadowsVegetation(trees, bushes,
reeds, etc)
ExtensiveGrazing
Size oflocalcattleherds
Changingfarming
practices
Drainage
Mowing Maintenance
Avail.funds
+-
+
Small-scalefarming
-
-
+-
-
-
-
-
+ +
-++
firesset inspring
(low water in marsh
tickslocalssetting
fires
+
-
Intensity/ Extent of fire
-
-
-
-
+
Survival rate of Insects
Survival rateof nesting birds
Survival rateof other animals
Policyresponse
+
delay
Controlledburns
+
-
Contract withMin. for
EmergencyServices
+
+
-
+
Accessibility ofswamp for
grazing & mowing
Need fornew ideas
knowledgetransfer
testing/experimenting
special,light-weighthardy cows
able to graze
inaccessibleparts of swamp
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
cows unwillingnessto graze deep into
the marsh
need forhardy breeds
+
+
need ofhusbandry/
management
-
-
-
+
Ecol.complexity
need to experiment
+
+
Ruraldepopulation
Avail.trad.
knowledge
Youngpeople
moving tocities
Existentialthreat tovillages
local supportfor initiatives
to save village
Inclusion ofsocio-econ.
aims for projectplans
-
delay
++
+ +
Avail.funds for ruralsocio-econ.development
projects
+
+TraditionalLand Use
-
Visibilityof need for
saving swamps
Approval ofMinistry
use of swampsfor grazing &
energy biomass(not peat)
inadequatetrad. feed for
cattle
high qual.grass onswamps
+
+
+
+
+
-delay
+
+
Natureprotection
NORM
Restrictions
-
+
-
GOAL: Return of focal species
-
+
Adequacy of communication
strategies
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:10. Case Birds, Theme: Ecological system, land use
Vegetationovergrowth
Need fornew ideas
knowledgetransfer
+
+
+
ImplementationActivity rate
Adequacy of Planning
Understanding of system
requirements
Investmentrequirements
+
+
+-
Preference forbusiness
partners overstate orgs.
SEScomplexity/ Uncertainty
Learningrate
avail.formal
knowledgefrom elsewhere
need totest under
local conditions
ability/ timeto experiment
project at interface between
science and industry
biodiversity goals
burgeoningecon. & social
goals
++
+
+
+
Collaborativetesting/
Experimentationrate
+
-
+
+
Optimisation
ProfitabilityProfit
pressure
establishnon-commercial
enterprise
--+
++
Ruraldepopulation
Avail.trad.
knowledge
-
delay
+
Avail. Project-based
knowledge
+
+
newequipment
+
-
+
Accidentrate
-
+
Local interest/ support
(residents, farmers,agencies, districts,
NGOs)
Solutionorientation
Quality &quantity ofoutcomes
problemsovercome
++
+
+
+
+
+
-
ProjectManagement
Tools
Monitoring
Innovation
ActiveManagement
approach
Natureprotection
NORMTraditionalland use
Restrictions
Biodiversity
GOALS(biodiversity,indicators,
socio-econ.sustainability)
++
-
+
+
+
+
+-
delay
-
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
twogood, avail.
houses
idea for school for
foreignstudents to
study swamp
Avail.Knowledge
(partic. abouttech dev. in
swamp environ.)
Uniqueness ofswamp as
learning environ.
+
+
+delay
-
+
-
-
Local businessinvolved in
meadow management
Avail.Know-how
+
SUPPORT
Revise planon the run
+
Diversification of products/
services
+
+
+
Whole supplychains
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:11. Case Birds, Theme: Learning, knowledge
Natural propertiesof cranberries
easy topreservenaturally
suitability forproduction
sourtaste
health benefitsof the berry
-
+
+
+
Price ofberries in
BL
Price of berries in
West
demand/price index
in West
+
+
Avail.berriesin BL
Market
-
pickers
++
price offeredby company
+
competitionfor berries
+
Foreign berrypicking companies
+
+
Absence ofsimilar prods
in West
-
+
+
complexityof ecol. system
annual avail. & distribution of
berries
choice of partners/
wholesalersWholesalersbuy berries
from pickers
Company buysberries from wholesalers
Documentation/permits+
+
+
cranberrycannot be
frozen withoutlosing quality
-
Use ofpicking combs
Peoples’ attitudes(individualism: don’t
care about impact onothers/
future generations
Carelesspicking
Damage tobushes/ plants/
roots/ etc
regenerationrate
profitmaximisation
of picking
Pickers’ability tosell green
berries
-
++
+
+ +
+
+
-
controls/fines
Size offines
Legislation“no combs”
Depts ofForestry/
Internal Affairs/Nature Protection
Pressure ondepts to fine
+
+
-
+-
-
-
Fines go todept budgets + Quotas,
etc+
Will not buyunripe berries
picking ofunripe berries
-delay
wineries buyingunripe berries
+
procurement agenciesbuying unripe berries
+
strict qualityrequirements
+
“high qual. prodscome from high qual.raw materials” – belief
+
desire to makehigh qual. prod.
+
marketfeedback
goal oflong-term
sust. business
+
+
delay
+
Average pension
Importance ofberry paymentsfor supplemental
income
-
+
Payments tolocals for berry
picking
+
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
+
+
Figure A2:12. Case Berries, Theme: Ecological system, land use
idea
Enthusiasmof chief engineer
at Inst. of Nutrition+
Support ofInst. of Nutrition
+
avail.knowledge/expertise/
suitable equip/experienced staff
+
contact Inst. of
Nutrition
+
+
-
Visit toMoscow analoguecompany
+
+
Implementnew manuf.
line
+
+
production
+
Learning+
+
Sovietsystem
Perestroika
–
Copyrightcertification
from Moscow
+
Econ.Hard times
+Demand forfood manuf.
equip.-
general businessprospects +
(impending)closure of
equip. manuf.business
-
-
Institutionalchange
++
“business isrun by
rascals”
+
+
Anti-business climate
+
Support of authorities
-
District provides property for prod, etc
+
Decision toimplement inGlubokoye
+
Criticism byregional execcommittee reclosure plans
++
Idea toimplement
berry businessconcept in Glubokoye
+
+
+t
Leader originates from
Glubokoye
+
cooperation withInst. of Nutr.
Co-development of innovative techs
+
+
+
scrutiny of company’s operations
+
Discovery ofirregularities
+Short-termAdequacy of
govt. at multiplescales
-
incorrect proceduresre donation of property
to enterprise-
+ Legalchallenges
+
-
compensationaward
functioninglegal system fair courts
+ +
Availdistrictfinance
-
ability of district to
pay compensation
+settlement
leading to companyretaining property-
++
Support fromlocal community
econ. reformtowards market-
driven econ.
Number ofprivate
businesses
+-
Success ofcompany
-Taxespaid
+
Meet taxobligations
+
Support fromlocal leaders/
authorities
+
+
-
Pay salarieson time/ provide
good workingconditions/ holidays
etc
+
Perceptionas a good
working place+
averageworking conditions
in district
-
Average pension
Importance ofberry paymentsfor supplemental
income
+
+
Demand forripe berries
+
Payments tolocals for berry
picking
+
+
-
delay
delay
Need of support of
auths.
-+
Compliance with regs.
+
+
Companyapproaches
auths./regional exec.comm. when in
need
+
+
prestige fordistrict auths.
++
state controlapparatus regulations/
prescriptions
control inspections
reforms
randomness ofvisits+
+
++
Violationsobserved
+
+
ambitions ofindividualinspectors
+
Alignment betweenprescriptions and
owner’s perceptionof good, reasonable
practice
Measures
+
+
-
Level ofConflict
+
-
-
-
Avail.
funds
Privatisepremises& equip.
+
-
Opportunityto privatise
+
Exec. comm.assistance/arbitration/
decision-making
Bankrupt districtcannot be
co-founders
Presidentialdecree re:
bankruptcy &founding a company
+
+Effective,
accessiblegovernancestructures +
No specialtreatment for“local” born
business owners
+
Support ofexec. comm.for company
concept
+
People are different,some will support,some will oppose
company allowedto buy out district
authority
+
+
+
++
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:13. Case Berries, Theme: Support
insufficiency ofone single product
to sustain a business
developmentof large range
of prods
+
adequacy of demand
+
Sustainableenterprise
+
Continuousinvestment
in development of production/
R&D
+
prod. quantity
+
+
Prod.quality
+
+
Novelty
expansion
patents
constantlytrying toimprove
overcrowded premises
throwing outobsolete stuff
+
+
+
-
+
+ +
+
+
Price ofberries in
BL
Price of berries in
West
+
Avail.berriesin BL
-
price offeredby company
+
BL company tiedto local price in order
to maintain profitability -
profitability
-
competitionfor berries +
+
company setsown prices based on
market considerations
cost ofproduction
prod.efficiency
-
+
+
Price levelof products
+
Stateprice setting
- reform tode-regulate
pricing
-
company interaction with regional exec. committee
(to justify & negotiate prices)
+
sales
+
demand forconfectionary
+
general econ.situation in BL frozen
salariesetc -
state’s directcontrol over profitability
+
vulnerability
-
-
-
+
Govt procurementfund/agency procuressugar/electricity etcat state-fixed price
avail. sugar/electricity
need of sugar/electricity
applicationsto govt
-
+
+
+
Govt indirectcontrol overproduction/profitability
+
Costs ofprod. partiallyinsulated from
market fluctuations+
companyknowledge aboutwhere to source sugar from in the
market -
-
-
Specialised/high quality/
“natural” production
+ marketcompetitiveness
Marketshare
Awareness ofconsumers ofprod. quality.
Avail. ofhigh qual.
prods.
changes in consumerbehaviour towards high
qual. prods.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Need Support ofrenter for purpose
of company
Avail.rental
property
ProductionFacilities
Purchaseown facilities
+
Need to rent
+
-+
+Need ofprod. facilities
+
+
+
- Avail.funds Loans
Repayments
Interestrates
Interest ratesin other markets(i.e. international)
++
-
+
-
+
Stabilityof BL rouble
- -
-
desire to reservefunds in strong
international currency- funds in
hard currency
+
BL regulations/
laws
ability toreserve fundsin international
currency
-
+
Devaluationof savings
--
-
Qualified specialist
employees
avail.productionredundancy
Training inall operations
domains
+
Tough requirementsof job
+
Employeesleaving
Firingrate
Retirementrate
Leader listensto opinion of established
staff re new hires
workingdiscipline
ability to work in team+
delay
++
+
Hiring rate
-
+
+PotentialemployeesUnemployment
rate
++
-
+
inherentconsumer
properties ofproducts
brightpackaging/advertising
ability todeliver suchpackaging
Avail. funds/materials etc
Perestroika
-
Exposure of BLconsumers to
Western productnorms
Consumers demandbright packaging/ ads
etc
+
+
+
+
+
++
use of preservativescolouring agents, etc
in food
public healthdrive to
organic produce
Public Awareness ofimportance offood for health
price oforganic
food
Commercialinterests in
econ. growth& profit
maximisation
+
-
delay
-
-+
-
+importance of
eco-certification
+
difficulties ofeco-certification
Reviewed every year
requirement forecol. friendly
production tech
Company lack ofcontrol over sugar
suppliers
-+
+
+
++
+
+
Opportunityto privatise +
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:14. Case Berries, Theme: Financing, funds
idea
memory ofsugarcranberriesfrom childhood
(popular, experience“hard to get”)
big harvestsof cranberries
Enthusiasmof chief engineer
at Inst. of Nutrition
+
Support ofInst. of Nutrition
+
avail.knowledge/expertise
+
contact Inst. of
Nutrition
++
-
Visit toMoscow analoguecompany
+
+
Implementnew manuf.
line
+
+
+
Learning
+
+
Sovietsystem
Perestroika
–
Copyrightcertification
from Moscow
+
(impending)closure of
equip. manuf.business
cooperation withInst. of Nutr.
Co-development of innovative techs
+
+
+
Novelty
demand
patents
development ofnew equip., techs,
processes
+
+
+
+
+ constantlytrying toimprove
+
Adequacyof technology
inputs+
prod.efficiency
profitmargin
re-investment ofprofit in R&D +
+
+
cranberrycannot be
frozen withoutlosing quality
need forspecialised
knowledge/ techs.
+
Specialised/high quality/
“natural” production
“High quality raw materialslead to a high quality product”
+
+
+
-
marketcompetitiveness
Avail. ofhigh qual.
prods.
++
experimentssimulations
Hireprofessionals
Avail.literature
Consultationswith experts
Engageresearchinstitutes
+
+++
+
+
+
+
+ Avail.funds
PurchaseState standards& recipes/Obtain
Licences forrecipes/
know-how etc
+
-
+
-
+
Complexity ofproductionprocesses
(nuances, subtleties,and secrets)
Naturalproducts
+
+
Requirements & limitations+
+
-
+
+
-
-Seek and ask
+
+
Leader’s wifetechnologist atculinary plant
Formal education
+ +
Leader prev. role as
food prod.engineer+
+
Human Tacitknowledgein Qualified specialist
employees
+
-
on thejob
trainingin all
operations
+
+
+
+
Tough requirementsof job
+
Retirementrate
+
delay
New products
+
delay
Potential forscale-up
knowledge transfer/experience sharing
Identification ofmutual benefit
Serious proposals
importance ofhuman factor
(tacit knowledge)of production
“hard to teach”Successfullicensing prospects
Licensing
Partners/outlets in
Germany &Poland
-
-
+
-+
+
+
+ +
+
+
Drive to minimise
waste
+
diversification of income streams
+ Visibility on shop shelves+
+
need to be visible
+
-
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:15. Case Berries, Theme: Learning, knowledge
Natural propertiesof cranberries
easy topreservenaturally
suitability forproduction
sourtaste
health benefitsof the berry
-
+
+
+
Price ofberries in
BL
Price of berries in
West
demand/price index
in West+
+
Avail.berriesin BL
Market
-
pickers
++
price offeredby company
+
BL company tiedto local price in order
to maintain profitability
-
competitionfor berries
+
Foreign berrypicking companies
+
+
Absence ofsimilar prods
in West
-
+Govt procurement
fund/agency procuressugar/electricity etcat state-fixed price
avail. sugar/electricity
Productionrate
+
-+
cost ofproduction
prod.efficiency
-
profitmargin
+
re-investment ofprofit in R&D
+
+ Sales Price
+
sales+-
+
-
Avail.berries
+
??
company setsown prices based on
market considerations
Stateprice control
-
???-
+
complexityof ecol. system
annual avail. & distribution of
berries
choice of partners/
wholesalersWholesalersbuy berries
from pickers
Company buysberries from wholesalers
Documentation/permits
++
+
cranberrycannot be
frozen withoutlosing quality
need forspecialisedknowledge/
techs.
+
developmentof knowledge/
techs.
Specialised/high quality/
“natural” production
Worldview:“High quality raw materialslead to a high
quality product”
+
+
+
-
marketcompetitiveness
Marketshare
Awareness ofconsumers ofprod. quality.
Avail. ofhigh qual.
prods.
changes in consumerbehaviour towards high
qual. prods.++
+
++
+
+
+
-
-
Need Support ofrenter for purpose
of company
Avail.rental
property
ProductionFacilities
Ownedproperty
Need forcapital etc
+
Need to rent
+
-+
+
+
+
+
+ -
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds/ Inputs
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:16. Case Berries, Theme: Inputs
Successfactors
of company
Cleargoals
Clear, multiplealternative
pathways togoals
SpecialistsExperience
Careful selection
of personnel
Problem-solvingability
focus on delivering products that consumers
want
public awareness offood quality
+
+ +
+
++
+
++PL’s Worldview:
what a “real” business is
& does
Creation ofadded value
(i.e. NOT simply tradingfor profit)
Based on a foundation
of laws/ abidance
Respectedby others/community
Doing somethinggood for people
Natural products(no additives etc)
+
+
+
+
+
strong belief inonly natural prods
for human consumption
++
+ +
Adequacy of Support
Adequacy of Funds
Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions
Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge
Implementation/ Activity rate
Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms
Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use
Figure A2:17. Case Berries, Theme: Leadership, values
