APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China...

12
APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 APP Securities Pty Ltd ABN 45 112 871 842 18 February 2019 Sydney Office: Level 41, 259 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 9226 0000 Website: www.appsecurities.com.au Dow notches longest weekly win streak in about two years as stocks soar on trade optimism; our market is set to open much higher Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European bank stocks rally as ECB considers restarting stimulus mechanism DOW +1.74% to 25883.25, S&P500 +1.09% , NASDAQ +0.61% DAX +1.89% , CAC +1.79% , FTSE100 +0.55% Shanghai -1.37% , SENSEX -0.19% US 10-year yield moved to 2.665% from 2.655% AUD +0.44% to USD 0.7135 Gold +0.84% to US $1325/oz Silver +1.46% to $15.76 Bitcoin -0.01% to US $3,587.79 Ethereum +5.89% to US $129.47 Bitcoin Cash -0.25% to US $120.41 Ripple -0.68% to US $0.2968 WTI +2.54% to US $55.79/barrel, Brent +2.60% to US $66.25/barrel, Iron ore -0.20% to US $88.16 , Aluminium +0.50% to US $1859/tonne (LME) Copper +0.80% to US $6188/tonne (LME) US $2.815/lb (CEC) In London Rio +1.16% , BHP +1.17% The ASX200 up 6.7 points, Our SPI contract is up 53 points to 6,066 as of 07:59 AM AEDT S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Nikkei 225 2775.60 7472.41 20900.63 357.15 -239.08 / -1.131% Euro Stoxx (EUR) 29.87 / 1.088% 45.46 / 0.612% 5.67 / 1.6138% Index Charts Overnight Equity Data Currency Data Commodities Data Rates Data Top Stories Companies in the Press Research ASX Stock Table Trade Latest Price Change (Net) Change (% ) YTD (%) Equity Index North America Dow Industrials 25883.25 443.86 1.74% 10.96% S&P 500 2775.60 29.87 1.09% 10.72% NASDAQ 7472.41 45.46 0.61% 12.62% Europe DJ Euro Stoxx 357.15 5.67 1.61% 8.69% FTSE 100 7236.68 39.67 0.55% 7.56% DAX 11299.80 210.01 1.89% 7.02% CAC 5153.19 90.67 1.79% 8.93% Asia Pacific ASX 200 6066.10 6.70 0.11% 7.43% SPI 6066.00 53.00 0.88% 9.08% NZX 50 9261.70 (23.22) (0.25%) 5.11% Nikkei 20900.63 (239.08) (1.13%) 4.43% Hang Seng 27900.84 (531.21) (1.87%) 7.95% CSI 300 3338.70 (63.44) (1.86%) 10.90% Taiwan 10064.78 (24.23) (0.24%) 3.47% Kospi 2196.09 (29.76) (1.34%) 7.60% Currency Majors AUD/USD 0.7135 0.0031 0.44% 1.33% AUD/NZD 1.0404 0.0012 0.12% (0.70%) NZD/USD 0.6858 0.0022 0.32% 1.95% EUR/USD 1.1298 (0.0005) (0.04%) (1.49%) GBP/USD 1.2912 0.0108 0.84% 1.22% USD/CAD 1.3255 (0.0042) (0.32%) (2.84%) USD/JPY 110.4710 0.0420 0.04% 0.75% US Dollar Index 96.9040 (0.0740) (0.08%) 0.76% Commodity Metals Silver USD/Oz 15.76 0.2270 1.46% 1.38% Gold USD/Oz 1325.00 11.1000 0.84% 3.41% Platinum USD/Oz 808.40 19.2000 2.43% 0.97% Palladium USD/Oz 1408.70 22.7999 1.65% 17.67% Copper USD/lb 2.82 0.0410 1.48% 6.99% Energy Brent USD/bbl 66.25 1.6800 2.60% 23.14% WTI USD/bbl 55.79 1.3800 2.54% 22.86% Natgas USD/MMBtu 2.63 0.0590 2.29% (7.68%) Agriculture Corn USD/bu 3.75 0.0000 0.00% (0.07%) Wheat USD/bu 5.03 (0.0375) (0.74%) 0.00% Soybeans USD/bu 9.08 0.0425 0.47% 1.42% Bean Meal $/st 306.20 0.7000 0.23% (1.19%) Soybean Oil USD/lb 0.30 0.0008 0.26% 8.83% Rough Rice $/cwt 10.00 (0.1850) (1.82%) (3.52%) Coffee USD/lb 1.02 0.0020 0.20% (0.20%) Sugar USD/lb 13.14 0.5300 4.20% 9.23% Cotton USD/lb 0.72 0.0015 0.21% (0.47%) Rates Rate Last Yield (% ) Change YTD Aust 10yr 2.1010 (0.0400) (1.87%) (9.48%) Aust 2yr 1.7500 (0.0240) (1.35%) (7.80%) US 10 Yr 2.6653 0.0090 0.34% (0.68%) UK 10 Yr 1.1590 0.0210 1.85% (8.74%) Bund 0.1010 0.0070 7.45% (57.74%)

Transcript of APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China...

Page 1: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019

APP Securities Pty Ltd ABN 45 112 871 842 18 February 2019

Sydney Office: Level 41, 259 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 9226 0000 Website: www.appsecurities.com.au

Dow notches longest weekly win streak in about two years as stocks soar on trade optimism; our market is set to open much higher

Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European bank stocks rally as ECB considers restarting stimulus mechanism

• DOW +1.74% to 25883.25, S&P500 +1.09% , NASDAQ +0.61%

• DAX +1.89% , CAC +1.79% , FTSE100 +0.55%

• Shanghai -1.37% , SENSEX -0.19%

• US 10-year yield moved to 2.665% from 2.655%

• AUD +0.44% to USD 0.7135

• Gold +0.84% to US $1325/oz Silver +1.46% to $15.76

• Bitcoin -0.01% to US $3,587.79 Ethereum +5.89% to US $129.47 Bitcoin Cash -0.25% to US $120.41 Ripple -0.68% to US $0.2968

• WTI +2.54% to US $55.79/barrel, Brent +2.60% to US $66.25/barrel,

• Iron ore -0.20% to US $88.16 , Aluminium +0.50% to US $1859/tonne (LME) Copper +0.80% to US $6188/tonne (LME) US $2.815/lb (CEC)

• In London Rio +1.16% , BHP +1.17%

• The ASX200 up 6.7 points,

• Our SPI contract is up 53 points to 6,066 as of 07:59 AM AEDT

S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Nikkei 225

2775.60 7472.41 20900.63 357.15

-239.08 / -1.131%

Euro Stoxx (EUR)

29.87 / 1.088% 45.46 / 0.612% 5.67 / 1.6138%

Index Charts Overnight Equity Data Currency Data Commodities Data Rates Data

Top Stories Companies in the Press Research ASX Stock Table

Trade

Latest

Price

Change

(Net)

Change

(%) YTD (%)

Equity Index

North America

Dow Industrials 25883.25 443.86 1.74% 10.96%

S&P 500 2775.60 29.87 1.09% 10.72%

NASDAQ 7472.41 45.46 0.61% 12.62%

Europe

DJ Euro Stoxx 357.15 5.67 1.61% 8.69%

FTSE 100 7236.68 39.67 0.55% 7.56%

DAX 11299.80 210.01 1.89% 7.02%

CAC 5153.19 90.67 1.79% 8.93%

Asia Pacific

ASX 200 6066.10 6.70 0.11% 7.43%

SPI 6066.00 53.00 0.88% 9.08%

NZX 50 9261.70 (23.22) (0.25%) 5.11%

Nikkei 20900.63 (239.08) (1.13%) 4.43%

Hang Seng 27900.84 (531.21) (1.87%) 7.95%

CSI 300 3338.70 (63.44) (1.86%) 10.90%

Taiwan 10064.78 (24.23) (0.24%) 3.47%

Kospi 2196.09 (29.76) (1.34%) 7.60%

Currency

Majors

AUD/USD 0.7135 0.0031 0.44% 1.33%

AUD/NZD 1.0404 0.0012 0.12% (0.70%)

NZD/USD 0.6858 0.0022 0.32% 1.95%

EUR/USD 1.1298 (0.0005) (0.04%) (1.49%)

GBP/USD 1.2912 0.0108 0.84% 1.22%

USD/CAD 1.3255 (0.0042) (0.32%) (2.84%)

USD/JPY 110.4710 0.0420 0.04% 0.75%

US Dollar Index 96.9040 (0.0740) (0.08%) 0.76%

Commodity

Metals

Silver USD/Oz 15.76 0.2270 1.46% 1.38%

Gold USD/Oz 1325.00 11.1000 0.84% 3.41%

Platinum USD/Oz 808.40 19.2000 2.43% 0.97%

Palladium USD/Oz 1408.70 22.7999 1.65% 17.67%

Copper USD/lb 2.82 0.0410 1.48% 6.99%

Energy

Brent USD/bbl 66.25 1.6800 2.60% 23.14%

WTI USD/bbl 55.79 1.3800 2.54% 22.86%

Natgas USD/MMBtu 2.63 0.0590 2.29% (7.68%)

Agriculture

Corn USD/bu 3.75 0.0000 0.00% (0.07%)

Wheat USD/bu 5.03 (0.0375) (0.74%) 0.00%

Soybeans USD/bu 9.08 0.0425 0.47% 1.42%

Bean Meal $/st 306.20 0.7000 0.23% (1.19%)

Soybean Oil USD/lb 0.30 0.0008 0.26% 8.83%

Rough Rice $/cwt 10.00 (0.1850) (1.82%) (3.52%)

Coffee USD/lb 1.02 0.0020 0.20% (0.20%)

Sugar USD/lb 13.14 0.5300 4.20% 9.23%

Cotton USD/lb 0.72 0.0015 0.21% (0.47%)

Rates

Rate

Last Yield

(%)

Change YTD

Aust 10yr 2.1010 (0.0400) (1.87%) (9.48%)

Aust 2yr 1.7500 (0.0240) (1.35%) (7.80%)

US 10 Yr 2.6653 0.0090 0.34% (0.68%)

UK 10 Yr 1.1590 0.0210 1.85% (8.74%)

Bund 0.1010 0.0070 7.45% (57.74%)

Page 2: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

APP Securities Pty Ltd ABN 45 112 871 842 18 February 2019

Sydney Office: Level 41, 259 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 9226 0000 Website: www.appsecurities.com.au

Other News

• European bank stocks rally as ECB considers restarting stimulus mechanism - European banks rallied on Friday after European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure said a new targeted longer-term refinancing operation, or TLTRO was possible, according to reports. "There might be scope for another TLTRO," Coeure said, according to Reuters. The TLTRO are essentially cheap loans provided by the ECB, that served to temporarily calm the eurozone debt crisis early in 2012. Coeure also characterized the eurozone's inflation path as shallow, meaning the central bank would have to adapt. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index climbed some 2% on the back of the remarks. The biggest gainers in the index were Italian Banco BPM SpA and German Comerzbank Ag which gained 4.9% and 4.7% respectively.

• Fed's Bostic: Recent soft data doesn't change view of above trend growth - Recent disappointing retail sales and industrial production data don't yet suggest the economy will slow more quickly than expected, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic said on Friday, with growth somewhat above trend still the baseline forecast. "I have not seen a coalescing of data that would suggest we are going to be at trend or below trend. Our outlook for 2019 is still above trend," at around 2.3 percent to 2.5 percent, Bostic said. While slower than this year it is still above the economy's underlying potential of just under 2 percent annual growth, he said. He also argued that the policy rate was a little short of the neutral level but added that they were in no rush to arrive there. Echoing his comments from earlier this week, Bostic said that he was favouring one rate hike both in 2019 and 2020.

• Fed's Daly sees no case for rate hike this year - The Federal Reserve probably will not need to raise U.S. interest rates this year, given a slowdown in economic growth and muted inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Friday. “If the economy evolves as I just said I expect it to -- 2 percent growth, 1.9 percent inflation, no sense that (price pressures are) going up, no sense that we have any acceleration -- then I think the case for a rate increase isn’t there” this year, Daly said, according to the paper.

• Mattel falls most since 1999 as outlook disappoints investors - Toymaker Mattel had its worst trading day in nearly 20 years on Friday after the company posted weaker-than-expected full-year 2019 guidance during an analyst meeting in New York. Shares of the company finished the day down more than 18 percent. The company said it expects adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of $350 million to $400 million for 2019, below analysts' expectations of $551.6 million, according to FactSet data. The company also expects sales to be flat in 2019 when adjusted for currency. Shares of the company fell as low as 23 percent on Friday and trading was halted at least twice due to volatility. Mattel's forecast comes after the company reported strong sales during the fourth quarter of 2018 last week. The toymaker has struggled previously with weak sales of iconic brands such as American Girl and Fisher-Price. In recent years, more children have gravitated toward video games and electronics instead of traditional toys. Mattel was also hit hard by the bankruptcy of Toys R Us.

• Spain’s Sanchez calls snap election for April 28 - Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called a snap national election for April 28 after parliament voted down his budget bill, spelling an uncertain few months for a country whose political landscape is increasingly fragmented. Spain exited a deep economic slump in 2013 but has been plagued since then by political volatility, driven by deep divisions over an independence drive in Catalonia and the emergence of new, populist parties. Sanchez, who took office in June at the head of a minority government holding less than one-quarter of parliamentary seats, called the election after his former Catalan nationalist allies refused to back his budget. “Between doing nothing and continuing without the budget, and calling on Spaniards to have their say, I choose the second. Spain needs to keep advancing, progressing with tolerance.” Sanchez’s Socialist party leads opinion polls, but they also show that no single party would win enough votes to govern on its own. A range of possible coalition scenarios point to lengthy negotiations between three or more parties, potentially including the far-right Vox – it would be a first for post-Franco era Spain – and tapping into a divisive and high-profile debate over Catalan separatism.

• U.K. Prime Minister May to hold Brexit talks with EU's Juncker; urges party unity - British Prime Minister Theresa May is to hold Brexit talks with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker next week, her office said on Saturday, following this week's symbolic defeat in parliament which was widely interpreted as undermining her negotiating strength with the EU. On Tuesday, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, will make a speech setting out what changes would be required to eliminate the legal risk that Britain could be trapped in a Northern Irish backstop indefinitely. May's defeat in last Thursday's symbolic vote undermined her pledge to EU leaders that she could pass her deal with concessions primarily around the Irish backstop – a guarantee that there can be no return of border controls between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU-member Ireland. The issue has become one of the main points of contention ahead of Britain's planned departure from the EU next month after 45 years. May's office said she had written to her divided Conservative lawmakers urging them to overcome their differences over leaving the EU in the national interest.

• U.S.-China trade talk progress and signs of falling crude output lift WTI prices to 3-month high - Oil futures gained Friday, lifting prices up by more than 5% for the week on signs of tighter global supplies and progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China. The market was optimistic in regard to progress in this week’s trade talks between the U.S. and China, which can influence demand for energy from the globe’s largest two economies. The U.S. and China made “important progress for the current stage” of their trade negotiations, state-run Xinhua reported Friday, after Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Beijing.

• U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week, Trump hints at extension - President Donald Trump has conceded that he will delay planned increases in import duties on $200bn of Chinese goods if there is progress in trade talks in Washington this week. Appearing to soften his demand for talks to conclude before 1 March, Trump said there could be a 30- or 60-day extension, should negotiators get closer to a deal. A White House spokeswoman made a downbeat assessment of the highly charged trade negotiations, saying the two sides would have further talks after they failed to sign an accord in Beijing. In a separate statement, the White House press secretary, Sarah Sanders, said the two economic superpowers would “continue working on all outstanding issues in advance of the March 1 2019 deadline”. Referring to the

Page 3: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

APP Securities Pty Ltd ABN 45 112 871 842 18 February 2019

Sydney Office: Level 41, 259 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 9226 0000 Website: www.appsecurities.com.au

Beijing talks, Sanders said: “These detailed and intensive discussions led to progress between the two parties. Much work remains, however.” China and the U.S. reached a consensus in principle on key issues during the talks, China’s state news agency Xinhua said on Friday. It added that they had held a detailed discussion on a memorandum of understanding on trade and economic issues, but gave no details. The countries also discussed technology, intellectual property rights, agriculture, services, non-tariff barriers and currency, as well as potential Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and services to reduce a “large and persistent bilateral trade deficit”, Sanders said. However, it is understood that China failed to meet U.S. demands for details of state subsidies to key industries or to provide plans showing how Chinese markets would be opened to foreign competition. The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, met U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin on Friday after a week of talks at senior and deputy levels, and called for a deal both sides could accept, Chinese state media said. U.S. duties on $200bn of imports from China are due to rise from 10% to 25% if no deal is reached by 1 March. This is to address U.S. demands that China rethink its rule that foreign firms must give up technology in exchange for access to Chinese markets, which Washington says is a breach of basic rights. Lighthizer has also sought to better enforce intellectual property rights, which he says Chinese firms regularly abuse to gain an advantage over U.S. rivals.

Trump news

• Trump declares emergency to get funding for border wall - U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order declaring a national emergency to get funding for his border wall. He said he expects to be sued over the order and says he is prepared to fight for it all the way to the Supreme Court, where he believes he will win because the country is facing an “invasion” of drugs and gangs from the southern border. The move comes after he failed to get Congress to approve $5.7 billion in funding for a border wall, causing a 35-day government shutdown as the president and Congress could not agree on a spending bill. Trump cited the examples of former presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton declaring national emergencies on specific issues, but did not mention the fact that they did not use the emergency powers to pay for projects Congress would not support.

• Trump exempts hundreds of companies from steel tariff - Despite President Donald Trump’s tough talk on trade, his administration has granted hundreds of companies permission to import millions of tonnes of steel made in China, Japan and other countries without paying the hefty tariff he put in place to protect U.S. manufacturers and jobs, according to an Associated Press analysis. “I love tariffs, but I also love them to negotiate,” Trump said on Friday during a Rose Garden news conference. Behind the scenes, however, his Commerce Department approved tariff exemption requests from 370 companies for up to 4.1 million tonnes of foreign steel, with roughly 8 per cent of the total coming from China and close to 30pc from Japan. Many recipients of the waivers are subsidiaries of foreign-owned businesses.

• Trump says U.S.-China trade talks were ‘very productive’ - U.S. President Donald Trump received an update on the U.S.-China trade talks on Saturday at his Florida retreat after discussions in Beijing saw progress ahead of a March 1 deadline for reaching a deal. Trump, at his Mar-a-Lago club, was briefed in person by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and trade expert Peter Navarro, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, economic adviser Larry Kudlow and other aides joined by phone. Soon after the Florida meeting, Trump said on Twitter: “Trade negotiators have just returned from China where the meetings on Trade were very productive … In the meantime, Billions of Dollars are being paid to the United States by China in the form of Trade Tariffs!”

Economic news

• China CPI (YoY) (Jan) - China's consumer price inflation slowed to 1.7 percent year-on-year in January 2019 from 1.9 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of 1.9 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since January 2018, as food prices rose at a softer pace. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.5 percent in January, after being unchanged in December and matching market estimates.

• China M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Jan) - China's M2 money supply, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased 8.4 percent from year earlier to CNY 186.59 trillion in January 2019, following December's 8.1 percent growth and beating market expectations of an 8.2 percent advance. M1 money supply rose just 0.4 percent on-year to CNY 54.56 trillion, the weakest pace since 1989. M1 reflects both the strength of corporate cash positions and whether they are building up funds for possible future investments.

• China New Loans (Jan) - Chinese banks extended a record CNY 3.23 trillion in net new yuan loans in January 2019, compared to CNY 1.08 trillion in the previous month and market consensus of CNY 2.80 trillion, confirming policymakers seek to support slowing growth through an ultra loose monetary position. Corporate loans, which accounted for 80 percent of new loans, jumped to CNY 2.58 trillion from CNY 473.3 billion in December, while household loans rose to CNY 989.8 billion from CNY 450.4 billion. In addition, total social financing also hit a record CNY 4.64 trillion; and outstanding yuan loan growth stood at 13.4 percent, little-changed from December's 13.5 percent and above expectations of 13.1 percent.

• China PPI (YoY) (Jan) - China's producer price index increased by 0.1 percent from a year earlier in January 2019, far slower than a 0.9 percent rise in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 0.3 percent. It was the lowest producer inflation since September 2016, amid a slight decline in prices of means of production (-0.1 percent vs 1 percent in December), such as raw materials (-1.6 percent vs 0.8 percent), while inflation slowed for processing (0.3 percent vs 0.8 percent) and extraction (1.2 percent vs 3.8 percent). At the same time, consumer goods inflation edged down to 0.6 percent from 0.7 percent, of which food production (0.8 percent vs 0.9 percent), clothing (1.6 percent, the same as in December) and daily use goods (0.3 percent vs 0.4 percent). The cost of consumer durable goods was flat, following a 0.2 percent rise in December. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.6 percent in January, the third straight month of decrease.

Page 4: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

APP Securities Pty Ltd ABN 45 112 871 842 18 February 2019

Sydney Office: Level 41, 259 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 9226 0000 Website: www.appsecurities.com.au

• U.K. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) - Retail trade in the UK rose 1 percent from a month earlier in January 2019, reversing a downwardly revised 0.7 percent drop in December and easily beating market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. Food stores was the largest contributor towards the increase seen in January, followed by non-store retailing and non-food stores. By contrast, fuel sales fell. Compared with a year ago, retail sales advanced 4.2 percent in January, the biggest annual rise since December 2016.

• U.S. Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) - Import prices in the US went down 0.5 percent month-over-month in January of 2019, following a 1 percent decline in December and compared to market expectations of a 0.1 percent decrease. Cost of fuel imports went down 3.2 percent in January and 22.5 percent over the past 3 months, the largest drop over a 3-month period since the index fell 29.2 percent for the 3 months ended in February 2016. The January drop was primarily driven by a 44.2 percent fall in natural gas prices and a 0.1 percent decline in petroleum prices. Also, prices for non-fuel imports edged down 0.2 percent, led by nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (-0.7 percent); consumer goods (-0.3 percent); automotive vehicles (-0.2 percent); and foods, feeds, and beverages (-0.3 percent) which more than offset higher cost for capital goods (0.1 percent). Year-on-year, import prices went down 1.7 percent, the largest annual fall in nearly 2-1/2 years.

• U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) - US industrial output dropped 0.6 percent from a month earlier in January 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent growth in December and missing market expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. Manufacturing production fell 0.9 percent, primarily as a result of a large drop in motor vehicle assemblies, while mining and utilities output rose.

• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US rose to 95.5 in February of 2019 from 91.2 in January, preliminary estimates showed. The early February gains reflect the end of the partial government shutdown as well as a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates.

• U.S. Overall Net Capital Flow (Dec) - Overseas investors sold USD 33.1 billion of US assets, including short-dated instruments, in December 2018 after buying an upwardly revised USD 32.1 billion in November. Meanwhile, foreigners sold USD 48.3 billion of long-term US securities, including government and corporate, after buying a downwardly revised USD 32.1 billion in the previous month. Foreign investors sold USD 77.4 billion of US treasuries, after selling an upwardly revised USD 13.2 billion in November.

• U.S. PPI (MoM) (Jan) - Producer prices for final demand in the US fell by 0.1 percent in January 2019, the same as in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. Price of goods dropped 0.8 percent, the largest decrease since September 2015, driven by lower cost of energy (-3.8 percent) and food (-1.7 percent). Meanwhile, cost of services rose 0.3 percent, after being unchanged in the previous month. The core index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3 percent in January, rebounding from a 0.1 percent fall in December and above market consensus of 0.2 percent. On a yearly basis, producer prices went up 2.0 percent and the core index increased 2.6 percent.

• U.S. Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) - US retail trade fell by 1.2 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, following a revised 0.1 percent growth in November and missing market expectations of 0.1 percent gain. It was the steepest decline in trade since September 2009, as sales fell in almost all categories. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales dropped 1.7 percent in December after an increase of 1 percent in November.

Page 5: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

APP Securities Pty Ltd ABN 45 112 871 842 18 February 2019

Sydney Office: Level 41, 259 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 9226 0000 Website: www.appsecurities.com.au

This week we are awaiting the following economic news

• Tuesday - U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)

• Tuesday - Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

• Tuesday - U.K. Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec)

• Tuesday - U.K. Claimant Count Change (Jan)

• Tuesday - U.K. Unemployment Rate (Dec)

• Wednesday - Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)

• Thursday - Japan Trade Balance (Jan)

• Thursday - U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes

• Thursday - U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

• Thursday - Australia Employment Change (Jan)

• Thursday - Australia Unemployment Rate (Jan)

• Thursday - Germany CPI (MoM) (Jan)

• Thursday - Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• Friday - Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Feb)

• Friday - U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)

• Friday - U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

• Friday - U.S. Existing Home Sales (Jan)

• Friday - U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

• Friday - Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

Research Team | APP Securities Pty Ltd Level 41, 259 George St, Sydney, NSW 2000 Phone: +61 2 9226 0091 | Email: [email protected] | Website: www.appsecurities.com.au Disclaimer: Click here for important terms relating to this communication, or alternatively click on the Disclaimer link on our website. Sales and Trading | APP Securities Pty LtdInstitutional Sales: +61 2 9226 0079

Corporate Sales: +61 2 9226 0119

Retails Sales: +61 2 9226 0135

Asia Desk: +61 2 9226 2166

Email: [email protected] Investment Banking | APP Securities Pty Ltd +61 2 9226 0081 +61 2 9226 0174 Email: [email protected]

Page 6: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

18 February 2019

Companies in the press

Baby Bunting Group Ltd (BBN): Retailer Baby Bunting has booked a 28 per cent profit jump for the first half as it implements its turnaround strategy and

focusses on online sales. The company this morning reported net profit of $5.2 million for the half, with total sales up 17.2pc to $177.7 million. Online

was the biggest largest trading unit, accounting for 11.5 per cent of total sales and an increase of 61 per cent on the prior period. For the year so far, the

company reported comparable store sales growth of 8.7 per cent and says it expects earnings to be in the range of $25 million to $27m with 6 new stores

to open in the second half. Reports AFR

Centuria Capital Ltd (CNI): Property fund manager Centuria Capital is headed for a record year in the growth of its assets under management after

increasing the pool under its control 14.3 per cent to to $5.6 billion in the 2019 first half. One of the biggest components of that increase was one of the

largest property deals of last year: backed by Financial Rich Lister Paul Lederer, Centuria acquired the $645 million Hines Global REIT portfolio of four

office towers in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. That growth in the platform's managed funds in turn helps drive recurring revenue for Centuria, which

rose to $42 million, compared with $32.1 million in the 2018 first half. Centuria's overall statutory net profit was well down, however, by 36.3 per cent

to $21.4 million, in comparison with its 2018 interim result, which had been boosted by hefty one-off performance fees. Reports AFR

Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (DHG): Domain has slumped to a $156.4 million first-half loss and declared a large impairment due to a drop in listings

after a stumble in Sydney and Melbourne property markets. The real estate classifieds business declared a $178.8 million non-cash goodwill impairment

after lower listing volumes meant that, even stripping out the one-off hit, profit for the six months to December 30 dropped 14.2 per cent. Domain -

which lost $6.2 million in the last full financial year - said listing volumes had continued to fall in the first six weeks of the second half, and that the late

timing of Easter would affect the autumn selling season. Total revenue for the company was $186.3 million, up 66 per cent thanks to an 8.6 per cent

increase in residential revenue despite the lower market volumes. The company said this was due to the sales of premium products to agents. Reports

AFR

Healius Ltd (HLS): Integrated health services company Healius has downgraded its full-year guidance after posting a double-digit fall in net profit in the

first half of the 2019 financial year, with earnings down significantly in its largest unit, pathology. Underlying net profit fell 10.5 per cent to $39.4 million,

which stripped out $22.7 million in restructuring costs and $1 million of fair-value gains. Reported net profit was $20.7 million compared with $22.1

million a year ago. Revenue for the half year to December 31 grew 4.7 per cent to $871.6 million compared with a restated $832.7 million a year ago.

Despite cutting full-year expectations, chief executive Dr Malcolm Parmenter said he remained confident the group could deliver on its transformation

agenda, and the long-term drivers for healthcare remained positive. Reports AFR

Link Administration Holdings Ltd (LNK): Superannuation administration company Link Group has posted a big jump in its first half profit, with the

company’s strategic plan firing on all cylinders. The company posted net profit of $186.8 million for the six months ended December 31, 2018, up 187

per cent on the prior corresponding period. Revenue for the period came in at $714.4m while operating EBITDA came in at $185.4m. Link’s numbers

were boosted by the strong contribution from its Link Asset Servicing (LAS) unit, bought from Capita Asset Services in 2017 for $1.5 billion, and fine

tuning of operations in the UK and Europe. Company managing director John McMurtie said that Link’s global perspective has delivered growth for the

business. Link Group’s Board has declared an interim dividend of 8 cents per share for shareholders on record on February 25. The dividend will be 100

per cent franked and will be paid on April 9. Reports the Australian

Medibank Private Ltd (MPL): Medibank Private is ready to pounce on smaller rival health insurers that struggle in the new 2 per cent premium rate

increase environment expected to be introduced if Labor wins the federal election due by May. Plunging investment returns swamped incremental

improvement in Medibank's core health insurance business to cut the company's interim net profit by 15.4 per cent to $207.7 million in the six months

ended December 31. But investors focused on the continuing turnaround in the underlying health insurance and health services businesses and marked

Medibank's shares up 4 per cent to $2.87 in early trade on the ASX. Chief executive Craig Drummond sought to temper expectations for future profit

increases with the prospect of Labor imposing a 2 per cent premium cap on health insurers should it win the election, while saying Medibank was well

placed to exploit the new environment. Reports AFR

Origin Energy Ltd (ORG): Origin Energy will pay $58 million to purchase a Melbourne-based company that buys energy in bulk for apartment blocks.

Origin is buying OC Energy for an upfront payment of $33 million plus $25 million in deferred payments, it said on Friday. The acquisition will add 55,000

customers to Origin, mostly in New South Wales and Victoria. Completion of the deal is targeted for this quarter. Origin shares were up 6 cents, or 0.81

per cent, to $7.50, shortly after the open at 1019 AEDT on Friday. Reports the Australian

Rural Funds Group (REF): Australia's most successful rural property trust, Rural Funds Group, has beefed up its cattle portfolio after buying one of

Victoria's largest cattle stations, Cobungra, at the foot of Mount Hotham, for $35 million. The purchase of the 6486-hectare renowned alpine beef

property and more than 24,000 hectares of adjacent grazing licences, lifts the value of RFF's cattle stations to more than $250 million and the total value

of its portfolio including water entitlements to well over $800 million. The vendor was financier and Wagyu industry figure Mark Suhr, who has owned

Cobungra since 2001, with Nick Myer from Elders and Shane McIntyre from CBRE the appointed agents. Reports AFR

Page 7: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

18 February 2019

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (WHC): Whitehaven Coal says it will pay a special dividend to shareholders after higher prices for the coal it sells across Asia drove

a 19 per cent rise in half-year net profit. The mining company reported a profit of $305.8 million for the six months through December, up from $256.2

million in the same period a year earlier. Directors declared an interim dividend of 15 cents a share, up from 13 cents a year ago. On top of that,

Whitehaven said it would pay a special dividend worth 5 cents per share. Whitehaven's shares closed at $4.79 on Thursday, up 5.46 per cent over the

past 12 months. Reports the Australian

Page 8: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

ASX 300 Stock Tables 1. Source: FactSet consensus data 2. Gross yield in FY1 assumes same level of franking reported in FY0 3. Total return calculated as capital appreciation to FactSet consensus price target from last nights close plus FY1 forecast gross yield

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Australia and New Zealand BankingANZ-AU 76,596 26.81 1.0% 10% Overweight 28.31 5.3% 8.6% 13.9% 2.8 2.23 2.32 2.44 4.0% 5.0% 4.1% 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.6Bank of Queensland BOQ-AU 3,998 9.95 0.3% 3% Underweight 10.23 2.7% 10.9% 13.6% (9.8) 0.89 0.88 0.87 (1.4%) (1.3%) (1.2%) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.5

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank BEN-AU 4,826 9.87 0.1% -9% Underweight 9.88 0.1% 10.1% 10.3% (2.3) 0.92 0.82 0.80 (11.2%) (2.5%) (5.2%) 10.7 12.1 12.4 12.6

Commonwealth Bank of AustraliaCBA-AU 125,351 70.81 0.3% -2% Hold 71.83 1.4% 8.7% 10.1% 16.1 5.29 5.22 5.38 (1.2%) 3.1% 0.8% 13.4 13.6 13.2 13.1

CYBG PLC Shs CDI Repr 1 Shs CYB-AU 4,829 3.38 (3.7%) 2% Overweight 4.26 20.6% 3.8% 24.4% 23.9 0.54 0.45 0.48 (16.3%) 6.6% 0.3% 6.3 7.5 7.1 6.2

Mystate MYS-AU 424 4.68 1.7% 3% Overweight 5.18 9.7% 9.2% 18.9% 2.0 0.35 0.37 0.39 6.4% 4.7% 6.3% 13.4 12.6 12.0 11.1

National Australia Bank NAB-AU 67,270 24.22 (0.0%) 1% Overweight 27.26 11.1% 11.3% 22.5% 1.8 2.02 2.32 2.38 14.7% 2.4% 5.9% 12.0 10.4 10.2 10.1

Westpac Banking Corporation WBC-AU 90,464 26.24 0.2% 5% Hold 27.59 4.9% 10.3% 15.2% 19.3 2.36 2.36 2.37 (0.3%) 0.7% 0.6% 11.1 11.1 11.1 10.9

Average 11.3 11.3 11.0 10.8

Median 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.0

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

APN Outdoor . APO-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.32 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Brambles BXB-AU 17,911 11.24 (0.3%) 11% Overweight 11.13 (1.0%) 4.6% 3.6% 3.1 0.56 0.56 0.62 0.4% 9.1% 6.3% 20.0 19.9 18.2 16.6

Cabcharge Australia CAB-AU 248 2.06 0.0% -6% Hold 1.97 (4.6%) 6.0% 1.5% 2.1 0.11 0.11 0.13 (0.3%) 14.2% 8.7% 18.2 18.3 16.0 14.2

Carsales.Com CAR-AU 2,930 12.02 5.6% 9% Overweight 13.19 8.8% 5.3% 14.1% 3.3 0.54 0.54 0.59 0.3% 9.6% 6.7% 22.3 22.2 20.3 18.4

Class . CL1-AU 175 1.49 (2.6%) 7% Hold 1.55 4.0% 3.3% 7.4% 18.3 0.07 0.07 0.07 (3.7%) 1.8% 1.2% 20.4 21.2 20.9 19.7

Corporate Travel Management CTD-AU 2,678 24.68 (0.3%) 15% Buy 27.70 10.9% 2.3% 13.2% 1.5 0.81 0.97 1.14 19.1% 18.0% 16.8% 30.4 25.5 21.6 19.1

Credit Corp CCP-AU 1,050 21.85 (0.7%) 16% Hold 23.30 6.2% 4.8% 11.0% 1.3 1.34 1.47 1.66 10.3% 12.3% 11.1% 16.3 14.8 13.2 11.9

IMF Bentham IMF-AU 675 3.30 (0.9%) 5% Overweight 3.86 14.4% 1.8% 16.2% (0.1) -0.06 0.12 0.21 (289.1%) 72.5% (265.5%) n/m 27.3 15.8 11.4

IPH . IPH-AU 1,125 5.70 (1.7%) 5% Overweight 6.17 7.6% 4.4% 12.0% 1.0 0.21 0.30 0.33 45.9% 8.2% 19.3% 27.5 18.9 17.5 16.2

iSelect . ISU-AU 175 0.80 6.7% 5% #VALUE! 5.4% ###### 0.8 0.03 0.04 0.05 25.8% 28.2% 26.0% 25.8 20.5 16.0 12.9

Mcmillan Shakespeare MMS-AU 1,314 15.79 (0.9%) 14% Overweight 17.08 7.6% 4.8% 12.3% 1.4 1.13 1.18 1.37 4.1% 16.1% 9.6% 13.9 13.4 11.5 10.6

oOh media OML-AU 921 3.89 (0.3%) 14% Buy 5.31 26.7% 4.5% 31.3% 1.9 0.27 0.24 0.30 (12.2%) 26.3% 8.7% 14.3 16.3 12.9 11.1

Seek SEK-AU 6,018 17.14 2.5% 1% Hold 19.42 11.7% 3.9% 15.6% 5.6 0.67 0.59 0.66 (12.6%) 13.4% 5.2% 25.6 29.3 25.8 22.0

Service Stream SSM-AU 855 2.13 (5.3%) 21% Overweight 2.30 7.4% 5.7% 13.1% 1.2 0.11 0.15 0.16 27.6% 8.7% 12.1% 18.7 14.7 13.5 13.3SG Fleet . SGF-AU 697 2.66 2.7% -13% Overweight 3.49 23.9% 10.4% 34.3% 1.4 0.26 0.29 0.30 8.2% 6.3% 6.8% 10.1 9.3 8.8 8.3Smart Corporation SIQ-AU 1,281 9.80 (0.5%) 10% Overweight 11.37 13.8% 6.0% 19.8% 1.5 0.52 0.60 0.66 16.0% 9.3% 11.2% 18.8 16.2 14.9 13.7WPP AUNZ WPP-AU 456 0.54 0.9% -6% Buy #VALUE! 15.5% ###### (1.5) 0.10 0.08 0.08 (14.5%) (3.6%) (4.4%) 5.4 6.4 6.6 6.2

Average 20.5 19.1 16.5 14.7Median 19.4 18.9 16.0 13.7

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

a2 Milk Company . A2M-AU 8,983 12.25 (3.8%) 19% Hold 11.65 (5.1%) 0.3% (4.9%) 1.2 0.25 0.35 0.44 42.5% 25.4% 28.8% 49.8 34.9 27.9 23.3

ALS . ALQ-AU 3,806 7.82 (0.9%) 15% Overweight 8.09 3.4% 3.0% 6.4% 1.3 0.28 0.37 0.41 28.8% 13.2% 16.8% 27.5 21.4 18.9 17.3

Ama AMA-AU 485 0.90 1.1% 4% Overweight 1.28 29.8% 3.8% 33.7% 0.8 0.05 0.06 0.07 22.9% 21.0% 20.6% 19.6 16.0 13.2 11.2

ARB Corporation ARB-AU 1,284 16.14 0.1% 8% Overweight 17.74 9.0% 3.6% 12.7% 1.7 0.64 0.74 0.82 15.1% 10.9% 12.5% 25.1 21.8 19.7 17.6Aristocrat Leisure ALL-AU 15,810 24.76 (1.0%) 13% Buy 31.76 22.0% 3.2% 25.2% 1.4 1.14 1.34 1.53 17.8% 14.0% 13.3% 21.7 18.4 16.2 14.9

Asaleo Care . AHY-AU 568 1.05 0.0% 14% Overweight 1.08 2.8% 2.4% 5.2% (1.5) 0.11 0.05 0.06 (51.8%) 15.3% (13.2%) 9.6 19.9 17.2 14.7

Australian Agricultural Co. AAC-AU 558 0.93 (2.6%) -16% Buy 1.37 32.5% 0.0% 32.5% n/m -0.17 -0.04 0.01 (79.3%) (130.6%) (144.2%) n/m n/m 84.1 61.7Bega Cheese BGA-AU 1,085 5.09 7.4% 3% Overweight 6.15 17.2% 2.9% 20.1% 2.0 0.24 0.22 0.29 (7.0%) 30.3% 11.5% 21.3 22.9 17.6 15.4

Bellamy's Australia . BAL-AU 972 8.57 (2.4%) 17% Hold 9.15 6.3% 0.7% 7.0% 2.7 0.41 0.37 0.45 (10.3%) 22.1% 8.6% 21.0 23.4 19.2 16.4

Breville BRG-AU 1,821 14.00 (0.6%) 31% Hold 13.89 (0.8%) 3.3% 2.5% 2.0 0.45 0.52 0.58 15.3% 12.4% 13.5% 31.1 27.0 24.0 21.3

BWX . BWX-AU 189 1.53 1.7% -3% Hold 2.27 32.9% 3.2% 36.2% (4.3) 0.22 0.11 0.17 (47.8%) 50.2% (3.2%) 7.1 13.6 9.0 7.8

Coca-Cola Amatil CCL-AU 6,089 8.41 (2.4%) 3% Underweight 8.34 (0.8%) 6.7% 5.9% (10.7) 0.56 0.52 0.51 (6.8%) (1.5%) (1.5%) 15.0 16.1 16.4 15.7

Freedom Foods FNP-AU 1,273 5.20 0.6% 12% Buy 7.18 27.5% 1.5% 29.0% 0.9 0.09 0.11 0.22 18.4% 104.4% 51.6% 56.2 47.5 23.2 16.1

G.U.D. Holdings GUD-AU 1,027 11.88 (1.8%) 6% Overweight 13.02 8.7% 6.6% 15.3% 1.7 0.64 0.71 0.77 11.4% 9.4% 9.7% 18.7 16.8 15.4 14.2

Select Harvests SHV-AU 584 6.12 (0.3%) 0% Hold 6.63 7.7% 3.9% 11.6% 1.2 0.23 0.29 0.34 26.0% 15.1% 17.3% 26.4 20.9 18.2 16.3

Treasury Wine Estates TWE-AU 11,635 16.19 (4.2%) 9% Overweight 18.41 12.1% 3.5% 15.5% 1.4 0.52 0.61 0.74 18.1% 20.3% 18.4% 31.3 26.5 22.0 18.8

Average 25.4 23.1 22.6 18.9

Median 21.7 21.4 18.5 16.2

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Ardent Leisure AAD-AU 693 1.44 0.7% -2% Hold 1.83 20.9% 3.0% 23.9% (0.2) -0.25 0.04 0.06 (114.2%) 64.0% (165.3%) n/m 40.3 24.5 20.5

Collins Foods CKF-AU 732 6.28 1.1% 2% Overweight 7.47 16.0% 3.0% 19.0% 1.4 0.34 0.38 0.42 13.0% 8.8% 11.4% 18.6 16.4 15.1 13.4

Crown Resorts CWN-AU 8,207 12.12 (0.1%) 2% Overweight 13.46 10.0% 6.2% 16.2% 2.8 0.56 0.61 0.66 8.3% 8.9% 7.2% 21.6 19.9 18.3 17.5

Domino's Pizza Enterprises DMP-AU 3,955 46.23 (0.3%) 14% Hold 51.04 9.4% 3.4% 12.8% 1.7 1.53 1.76 2.04 15.1% 16.1% 15.8% 30.3 26.3 22.6 19.5

Fairfax Media FXJ-AU ###### ##### Hold 0.75 #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.05 0.05 0.05 (7.4%) 0.0% #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Flight Centre Travel FLT-AU 4,360 43.13 1.2% 0% Overweight 54.13 20.3% 5.8% 26.1% 1.5 2.59 2.90 3.18 11.9% 9.5% 10.1% 16.6 14.9 13.6 12.5

G8 Education GEM-AU 1,612 3.54 0.6% 25% Overweight 3.18 (11.2%) 6.2% (5.0%) 6.4 0.22 0.17 0.20 (20.4%) 17.7% 3.2% 16.2 20.4 17.3 14.8

HT&E HT1-AU 537 1.88 2.7% 19% Overweight 1.90 1.1% 7.3% 8.4% 1.1 0.12 0.15 0.16 22.1% 5.5% 11.2% 15.4 12.6 12.0 11.2

IDP Education . IEL-AU 3,725 14.64 (1.7%) 48% Hold 13.85 (5.7%) 1.9% (3.8%) 2.2 0.22 0.27 0.34 22.7% 26.4% 24.2% 66.2 54.0 42.7 34.6

Invocare IVC-AU 1,428 12.95 1.8% 26% Hold 11.74 (10.4%) 4.3% (6.1%) 55.2 0.58 0.48 0.54 (17.9%) 13.7% 0.5% 22.4 27.2 24.0 22.0

Mantra . MTR-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Navitas NVT-AU 2,021 5.64 (0.2%) 11% Hold 5.62 (0.3%) 4.2% 3.9% 2.7 0.21 0.21 0.24 0.1% 14.5% 9.9% 26.6 26.6 23.2 20.0

News Corporation B CDI repr 1 ShNWS-AU 3,553 17.80 0.6% 9% Overweight 21.24 16.2% 2.4% 18.6% 4.0 0.60 0.59 0.65 (1.1%) 9.0% 7.4% 29.6 29.9 27.5 23.9Nine Entertainment Co. NEC-AU 2,533 1.49 7.2% 8% Buy 2.05 27.7% 9.8% 37.5% (3.3) 0.18 0.17 0.17 (6.0%) (1.5%) (2.6%) 8.3 8.8 8.9 8.9Retail Food RFG-AU 53 0.29 0.0% -3% Hold #VALUE! 0.0% ###### n/m 0.18 0.08 0.11 (59.2%) 50.7% #VALUE! 1.6 3.9 2.6 n/m

Seven West Media SWM-AU 837 0.56 (1.8%) 1% Hold 0.64 13.5% 2.1% 15.6% (3.2) 0.09 0.10 0.09 5.5% (4.4%) (1.7%) 5.9 5.6 5.9 6.2

SKY Network Television SKT-AU 681 1.75 (3.0%) -2% Hold 2.26 22.4% 7.6% 30.0% (1.3) 0.28 0.25 0.24 (10.4%) (2.4%) (5.5%) 6.3 7.0 7.2 7.4

SKYCITY Entertainment SKC-AU 2,532 3.71 0.0% 12% Hold 3.86 4.0% 5.2% 9.2% 63.6 0.23 0.24 0.23 4.6% (3.2%) 0.2% 16.0 15.3 15.8 15.9

Southern Cross Media SXL-AU 873 1.14 0.0% 13% Hold 1.15 1.3% 6.8% 8.1% 3.4 0.10 0.10 0.11 4.3% 4.2% 3.3% 11.7 11.2 10.7 10.6

Star Entertainment SGR-AU 4,211 4.59 0.4% 1% Overweight 5.77 20.5% 4.8% 25.3% 5.4 0.30 0.30 0.31 (3.2%) 6.2% 2.9% 15.1 15.6 14.6 13.8

Tabcorp Holdings TAH-AU 9,352 4.64 2.4% 8% Buy 5.16 10.1% 6.5% 16.6% 1.8 0.17 0.20 0.22 15.2% 11.3% 13.4% 27.2 23.6 21.2 18.6

Tatts TTS-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Village Roadshow VRL-AU 631 3.25 1.2% 20% Overweight 2.83 (14.8%) 0.8% (13.9%) (0.1) -0.05 0.10 0.16 (312.8%) 67.7% (264.6%) n/m 33.9 20.2 16.2

Webjet WEB-AU 1,589 11.72 (0.3%) 7% Overweight 14.98 21.7% 3.2% 24.9% 0.4 0.37 0.63 0.93 71.5% 47.2% 43.6% 31.9 18.6 12.7 10.8

Average 20.4 20.6 17.2 15.9

Median 16.6 18.6 15.8 15.4

Commercial Services

Consumer Durables

Non-Durables

Consumer ServicesP/EUp/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

P/E

Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

(A$)

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

(FY1)

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

P/E Ticker

Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

P/EGross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio BanksEPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside) Ticker

Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Page 9: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries API-AU 675 1.37 (0.4%) -1% Hold 1.62 15.6% 8.0% 23.5% 1.4 0.10 0.12 0.12 20.6% 4.7% 8.4% 14.1 11.7 11.2 11.1

Bapcor BAP-AU 1,650 5.84 (4.7%) -1% Buy 7.07 17.4% 4.3% 21.7% 1.5 0.30 0.34 0.38 12.9% 11.4% 11.7% 19.4 17.2 15.5 13.9

Graincorp Class A GNC-AU 2,158 9.43 (0.3%) 3% Hold 9.01 (4.6%) 1.1% (3.5%) 5.5 0.31 0.09 0.39 (70.2%) 324.3% 18.6% 30.6 102.4 24.1 18.3Metcash MTS-AU 2,328 2.56 0.8% 4% Hold 2.68 4.6% 8.0% 12.6% 7.6 0.22 0.23 0.23 4.1% (1.9%) 1.5% 11.6 11.1 11.3 11.1

Netcomm Wireless NTC-AU 105 0.72 (2.7%) -6% #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.06 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 13.0 n/m n/m n/m

Seven Holdings SVW-AU 5,840 17.21 0.6% 21% Buy 20.37 15.5% 4.0% 19.5% 0.7 0.98 1.25 1.43 27.1% 14.8% 19.0% 17.6 13.8 12.0 10.4

Sigma Healthcare SIG-AU 630 0.60 1.7% 4% Underweight 0.54 (9.4%) 7.5% (1.9%) (0.5) 0.06 0.04 0.02 (26.2%) (43.9%) (26.3%) 10.5 14.2 25.3 26.1Average 16.7 28.4 16.6 15.2

Median 14.1 14.0 13.7 12.5CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Beach Energy BPT-AU 4,294 1.89 2.2% 40% Overweight 1.91 1.3% 1.7% 3.0% 0.5 0.14 0.22 0.20 55.1% (6.9%) 17.1% 13.6 8.8 9.4 8.5

Caltex Australia CTX-AU 7,318 28.06 1.0% 10% Overweight 30.70 8.6% 5.7% 14.3% (9.4) 2.38 2.09 2.14 (12.3%) 2.4% (1.4%) 11.8 13.4 13.1 12.3

Cooper Energy COE-AU 803 0.50 (2.9%) 11% Buy 0.63 21.7% 0.0% 21.7% 4.2 0.02 0.00 0.04 (75.6%) 900.0% 26.7% 27.5 112.5 11.3 13.5

FAR FAR-AU 317 0.06 1.8% -13% Buy 0.15 61.8% 0.0% 61.8% n/m -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 (35.7%) (6.2%) (7.0%) n/m n/m n/m n/m

Karoon Gas Australia KAR-AU 246 1.00 0.0% 18% Overweight 1.30 22.9% 0.0% 22.9% n/m -0.74 -0.11 -0.13 (85.2%) 14.8% (43.6%) n/m n/m n/m n/m

Liquefied Natural Gas LNG-AU 283 0.50 3.1% -4% Hold 0.97 49.0% 0.0% 49.0% n/m -0.04 -0.06 36.4% #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Oil Search OSH-AU 12,357 8.11 1.1% 13% Overweight 8.89 8.8% 1.7% 10.5% 1.0 0.25 0.33 0.45 32.0% 35.5% 25.4% 32.4 24.5 18.1 16.4

Santos STO-AU 13,977 6.71 0.8% 22% Overweight 6.92 3.0% 1.5% 4.5% 0.4 0.21 0.42 0.47 103.9% 12.1% 37.9% 32.6 16.0 14.2 12.4Senex Energy SXY-AU 523 0.36 4.3% 31% Buy 0.49 27.0% 0.0% 27.0% 0.6 0.00 0.00 0.02 142.5% 505.9% 196.4% 266.9 110.0 18.2 10.2Sino Gas & Energy Holdings SEH-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.00 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Washington H. Soul Pattinson SOL-AU 6,919 28.90 (0.5%) 16% Sell #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 1.11 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 25.9 n/m n/m n/m

Whitehaven Coal WHC-AU 4,586 4.47 (6.7%) 3% Overweight 5.29 15.5% 13.6% 29.1% (0.7) 0.52 0.63 0.45 20.5% (28.5%) (9.9%) 8.6 7.1 9.9 11.7

Woodside Petroleum WPL-AU 33,758 36.06 1.5% 15% Overweight 37.19 3.0% 7.7% 10.7% 1.7 2.09 2.35 2.64 12.5% 12.4% 9.0% 17.3 15.4 13.7 13.3

Average 31.7 32.3 14.8 13.5

Median 17.3 15.4 13.7 12.5

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

AMP AMP-AU 6,404 2.18 (3.1%) -11% Hold 2.25 3.0% 7.1% 10.0% (4.6) 0.23 0.20 0.21 (13.3%) 2.1% (2.4%) 9.4 10.8 10.6 10.1

ASX ASX-AU 13,133 67.84 (1.8%) 13% Underweight 59.47 (14.1%) 4.6% (9.5%) 6.5 2.40 2.53 2.60 5.2% 2.8% 4.1% 28.2 26.8 26.1 25.0

Blue Sky Alternative Investments BLA-AU 62 0.80 (4.8%) 1% #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m -1.20 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

BT Investment Management BTT-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Challenger CGF-AU 4,456 7.29 (1.6%) -23% Hold 8.61 15.4% 4.7% 20.1% 7.2 0.64 0.61 0.62 (4.8%) 2.2% 1.7% 11.4 11.9 11.7 10.8

Eclipx . ECX-AU 742 2.32 (0.4%) -5% Overweight 2.44 4.8% 10.0% 14.8% 2.8 0.25 0.23 0.24 (6.0%) 5.4% 3.6% 9.4 10.0 9.5 8.5

EML Payments . EML-AU 393 1.57 1.3% 5% Overweight 2.16 27.1% 0.0% 27.1% 0.2 0.01 0.06 0.08 550.3% 40.0% 120.5% 180.5 27.7 19.8 16.8

Flexi FXL-AU 419 1.12 1.4% -17% Overweight 1.56 28.1% 10.6% 38.8% 2.4 0.24 0.22 0.24 (6.4%) 8.5% 2.1% 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Aust.GMA-AU 1,041 2.38 (0.8%) 9% Hold 2.76 13.7% 12.8% 26.4% 0.5 0.17 0.23 0.27 32.0% 19.6% 21.1% 13.8 10.4 8.7 7.7

HFA Holdings HFA-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

HUB24 HUB-AU 784 12.59 0.5% 6% Hold 13.28 5.2% 0.7% 5.9% 0.9 0.09 0.21 0.32 142.2% 54.1% 68.4% 144.7 59.7 38.8 30.3

Insurance Australia IAG-AU 17,287 7.48 (0.1%) 7% Hold 7.61 1.7% 6.3% 8.0% 4.9 0.40 0.37 0.44 (9.1%) 20.2% 4.2% 18.6 20.5 17.0 16.4

IOOF Holdings IFL-AU 1,790 5.10 (1.9%) -1% Hold 5.21 2.1% 10.4% 12.5% 1.7 0.57 0.58 0.60 1.5% 2.8% 5.0% 8.9 8.8 8.5 7.7

Janus Henderson CDI repr 1 Shs JHG-AU 6,545 32.66 0.0% 12% Hold 34.75 6.0% 9.0% 15.0% 9.4 3.84 3.50 3.68 (8.9%) 5.3% 1.0% 8.5 9.3 8.9 8.3

Macquarie MQG-AU 42,282 124.22 (1.0%) 14% Overweight 130.84 5.1% 6.8% 11.9% 1.9 7.44 8.56 8.89 15.1% 3.9% 7.6% 16.7 14.5 14.0 13.4

Magellan Financial MFG-AU 5,773 32.60 1.6% 38% Overweight 32.20 (1.3%) 7.3% 6.1% 2.1 1.55 1.81 1.84 17.1% 1.4% 8.5% 21.0 18.0 17.7 16.5

Medibank Private . MPL-AU 7,821 2.84 2.9% 11% Hold 2.64 (7.6%) 4.5% (3.1%) (7.6) 0.16 0.15 0.15 (4.9%) (0.1%) (2.4%) 17.5 18.4 18.5 18.9

Mortgage Choice MOC-AU 99 0.80 0.6% -20% Hold #VALUE! 18.0% ###### n/m 0.19 0.11 0.12 (43.9%) 10.5% #VALUE! 4.3 7.6 6.9 n/m

NIB Holdings NHF-AU 2,651 5.82 2.1% 12% Overweight 5.73 (1.5%) 5.2% 3.7% 6.1 0.32 0.32 0.34 (1.0%) 9.2% 3.0% 18.2 18.4 16.9 16.7

OFX . OFX-AU 454 1.83 0.8% 4% Hold 1.81 (1.0%) 4.7% 3.7% 3.4 0.08 0.08 0.09 8.5% 6.0% 6.4% 23.4 21.6 20.4 19.4

Perpetual PPT-AU 1,645 35.31 (0.6%) 9% Hold 35.38 0.2% 9.7% 9.9% (5.5) 3.00 2.63 2.62 (12.3%) (0.1%) (2.4%) 11.8 13.4 13.5 12.7

Platinum Asset Management PTM-AU 2,928 4.99 0.2% 3% Underweight 4.43 (12.6%) 7.8% (4.9%) (6.0) 0.32 0.27 0.28 (17.0%) 4.3% (3.1%) 15.4 18.6 17.8 17.0

Propertylink PLG-AU 696 1.16 (0.4%) 1% #VALUE! 8.7% ###### (15.9) 0.09 0.08 0.09 (13.5%) 12.5% (0.9%) 12.5 14.4 12.8 12.8

QBE Insurance QBE-AU 14,934 11.24 0.1% 11% Overweight 12.03 6.6% 4.9% 11.5% (0.1) -0.21 0.75 0.88 (451.9%) 17.6% (268.2%) n/m 15.0 12.7 11.1

Scottish Pacific . SCO-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.24 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Silver Chef SIV-AU 73 1.86 (4.6%) -24% Sell 1.21 (53.7%) #VALUE! ###### n/m -1.22 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Steadfast SDF-AU 2,395 3.02 (1.3%) 10% Overweight 3.25 6.9% 2.7% 9.7% 3.4 0.13 0.13 0.15 6.8% 9.2% 6.6% 24.0 22.4 20.5 19.8

Suncorp SUN-AU 17,010 13.10 0.9% 4% Overweight 13.93 5.9% 7.7% 13.7% 2.7 0.83 0.83 0.96 (0.2%) 15.1% 5.9% 15.7 15.7 13.7 13.2

Thorn TGA-AU 76 0.48 1.1% -17% Buy #VALUE! 0.0% ###### (0.0) -0.04 0.05 0.08 (233.0%) 53.7% (235.5%) n/m 8.8 5.7 4.7

Average 28.1 17.0 14.8 14.0

Median 15.6 14.7 13.6 13.2

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Abacus Property ABP-AU 2,139 3.69 (0.3%) 13% Hold 3.60 (2.4%) 5.0% 2.6% (2.7) 0.32 0.23 0.26 (28.7%) 16.2% (6.1%) 11.6 16.3 14.0 14.0

Arena REIT ARF-AU 740 2.72 1.5% 13% Overweight 2.67 (1.9%) 4.9% 3.1% 4.3 0.13 0.14 0.14 4.6% 4.4% 4.6% 20.8 19.9 19.0 18.1

Aventus Retail Property Fund AVN-AU 1,174 2.21 1.4% 4% Overweight 2.22 0.5% 7.7% 8.2% 6.4 0.18 0.18 0.19 1.7% 2.3% 1.9% 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.5

Aveo AOG-AU 1,138 1.96 10.1% 23% Hold 2.14 8.4% 3.9% 12.3% (0.8) 0.22 0.13 0.11 (41.0%) (11.6%) (18.3%) 8.9 15.1 17.1 16.3

BWP Trust BWP-AU 2,409 3.75 1.1% 6% Underweight 2.97 (26.3%) 4.8% (21.5%) 28.5 0.18 0.18 0.18 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.8

Cedar Woods Properties CWP-AU 401 5.00 (0.2%) -1% Overweight 7.21 30.6% 6.8% 37.4% n/m 0.54 0.72 0.66 34.6% (8.9%) #VALUE! 9.3 6.9 7.6 n/m

Centuria Industrial REIT CIP-AU 760 2.85 0.0% 4% Hold 2.73 (4.5%) 6.4% 1.9% 214.7 0.19 0.18 0.19 (5.5%) 1.1% 0.1% 14.6 15.5 15.3 14.6

Centuria Metropolitan REIT 1 CMA-AU 887 2.49 1.2% 5% Buy 2.55 2.4% 7.1% 9.6% 17.3 0.18 0.18 0.18 (0.2%) 0.4% 0.8% 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.2

Charter Hall CHC-AU 4,001 8.59 1.3% 16% Overweight 7.36 (16.7%) 4.0% (12.6%) 3.1 0.38 0.41 0.57 9.6% 38.3% 6.8% 22.8 20.8 15.0 18.7

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT CLW-AU 1,280 4.54 (0.2%) 6% Underweight 4.12 (10.2%) 5.9% (4.3%) 5.1 0.26 0.28 0.28 4.7% 3.5% 3.2% 17.3 16.5 15.9 15.7Charter Hall Retail REIT CQR-AU 1,843 4.58 0.4% 2% Underweight 4.14 (10.8%) 6.3% (4.5%) 8.4 0.31 0.31 0.32 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.2Cromwell Property CMW-AU 2,416 1.09 0.5% 10% Hold 1.02 (6.0%) 6.6% 0.6% (3.8) 0.08 0.08 0.08 (2.9%) (5.3%) (3.6%) 13.1 13.5 14.3 14.6

Dexus DXS-AU 12,267 12.06 0.5% 14% Hold 11.35 (6.2%) 4.2% (2.1%) 1.4 0.46 0.61 0.64 32.5% 4.5% 13.7% 26.2 19.8 18.9 17.8

Folkestone Education Trust FET-AU 869 3.36 2.1% 14% Hold 3.18 (5.7%) 4.8% (0.9%) 1.8 0.16 0.17 0.18 3.0% 6.9% 11.3% 20.4 19.8 18.5 14.8

Gateway Lifestyle GTY-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.13 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

GDI Property GDI-AU 774 1.44 (1.0%) 6% #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.08 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 17.6 n/m n/m n/mGPT GPT-AU 10,631 5.89 1.2% 10% Hold 5.70 (3.4%) 4.5% 1.1% 5.1 0.32 0.33 0.34 2.7% 3.3% 3.5% 18.5 18.0 17.4 16.7

Growthpoint Properties AustraliaGOZ-AU 2,904 3.99 0.3% 7% Underweight 3.40 (17.3%) 5.8% (11.6%) 4.7 0.23 0.23 0.24 4.0% 2.5% 3.6% 17.7 17.0 16.6 15.9

Hotel Property Investments . HPI-AU 457 3.13 (0.3%) -2% Underweight 3.09 (1.5%) 6.3% 4.9% 6.7 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.7% 5.0% 2.3% 15.8 15.7 14.9 14.7

Industria REIT Fund IDR-AU 472 2.90 1.0% 6% Overweight 2.76 (5.1%) 5.9% 0.9% 23.9 0.19 0.18 0.18 (4.6%) 3.3% 0.7% 15.5 16.2 15.7 15.2

Ingenia Communities INA-AU 727 3.13 0.6% 4% Buy 3.43 8.7% 3.6% 12.3% 2.1 0.18 0.19 0.21 7.7% 8.9% 8.0% 17.7 16.4 15.1 14.1

Investa Office Fund IOF-AU ###### ##### Hold 5.60 #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.31 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Iron Mountain CDI repr 1 sh INM-AU ###### ##### Hold 52.62 #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 1.55 1.64 1.79 6.0% 8.9% 10.1% n/m n/m n/m n/m

Lendlease LLC-AU 7,640 13.55 1.7% 17% Buy 16.03 15.5% 3.2% 18.6% 7.3 1.36 0.85 1.42 (37.9%) 68.4% 2.2% 10.0 16.0 9.5 9.3

Mirvac MGR-AU 9,392 2.57 0.4% 15% Hold 2.56 (0.5%) 4.5% 4.0% 5.5 0.16 0.17 0.18 1.2% 6.7% 2.8% 15.7 15.5 14.5 14.4

National Storage REIT NSR-AU 1,250 1.87 0.5% 7% Underweight 1.63 (15.0%) 5.2% (9.8%) 4.7 0.10 0.10 0.10 (0.3%) 8.4% 4.2% 19.6 19.7 18.2 17.4

Rural Funds RFF-AU 741 2.22 0.0% 4% Overweight 2.41 7.9% 4.7% 12.6% 14.9 0.14 0.13 0.14 (5.2%) 6.0% 1.1% 15.7 16.6 15.6 15.2

Scentre SCG-AU 21,162 3.98 0.5% 2% Overweight 4.28 7.1% 5.6% 12.7% 0.1 0.02 0.25 0.26 941.1% 3.7% 122.7% 166.5 16.0 15.4 15.1

Servcorp SRV-AU 298 3.08 0.3% 1% Hold 4.25 27.5% 8.4% 36.0% 1.0 0.29 0.30 0.32 1.7% 7.6% 10.0% 10.5 10.3 9.6 7.9

Shopping Centres Australasia REIT SCP-AU 2,305 2.49 0.8% -2% Underweight 2.37 (4.9%) 5.9% 1.1% 3.8 0.15 0.16 0.17 6.2% 3.9% 4.0% 16.3 15.4 14.8 14.5

Stockland SGP-AU 8,947 3.72 0.8% 6% Overweight 4.04 7.9% 7.4% 15.4% 1.7 0.30 0.35 0.35 14.8% 2.1% 6.2% 12.3 10.7 10.5 10.3

Vicinity Centres VCX-AU 9,808 2.56 (0.4%) -2% Overweight 2.81 8.8% 6.2% 15.0% (48.9) 0.18 0.18 0.18 (1.8%) (0.7%) (0.3%) 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.2

Villa World VLW-AU 244 1.94 1.0% 11% Overweight 1.97 1.4% 10.6% 11.9% (1.5) 0.34 0.21 0.23 (37.9%) 6.6% (6.1%) 5.7 9.1 8.6 6.8

Viva Energy REIT VVR-AU 1,764 2.43 1.7% 8% Buy 2.50 2.6% 8.2% 10.8% 3.3 0.13 0.14 0.15 8.9% 5.4% 5.2% 18.9 17.4 16.5 16.2

Westfield Corp. WFD-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.43 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Average 20.7 16.0 15.0 14.8

Median 15.7 16.0 15.1 14.8

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth P/EEnergy Ticker

Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth P/EDistribution Services Ticker

Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Finance

Real EstateP/EUp/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

P/EUp/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Page 10: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Estia Health . EHE-AU 638 2.45 0.0% 7% Overweight 2.80 12.5% 10.0% 22.5% 2.0 0.16 0.17 0.18 9.7% 5.1% 7.1% 15.6 14.2 13.5 12.7Greencross GXL-AU 673 5.54 0.0% 2% Hold 4.50 (23.1%) 4.3% (18.9%) (16.1) 0.32 0.34 0.33 8.0% (3.4%) (1.0%) 17.6 16.3 16.9 18.1Healthscope . HSO-AU 4,283 2.46 (0.8%) 10% Hold 2.43 (1.3%) 4.2% 2.9% 2.7 0.09 0.09 0.10 7.3% 12.6% 9.8% 28.4 26.5 23.5 21.4

Japara Healthcare JHC-AU 347 1.30 0.4% 16% Hold 1.18 (9.8%) 6.8% (3.1%) (24.8) 0.09 0.07 0.08 (22.3%) 13.2% (0.8%) 14.8 19.1 16.9 15.2

Monash IVF MVF-AU 224 0.95 1.1% -5% Overweight 1.17 18.8% 8.1% 26.9% 3.6 0.09 0.09 0.09 (1.8%) 4.9% 3.0% 10.4 10.6 10.1 9.6

Primary Health Care PRY-AU 1,786 2.87 0.3% 29% Hold 2.91 1.4% 4.6% 6.0% 3.0 0.16 0.15 0.17 (5.6%) 10.7% 6.2% 17.7 18.8 17.0 14.8

Ramsay Health Care RHC-AU 11,832 58.55 1.4% 1% Overweight 59.33 1.3% 3.6% 4.9% 3.4 2.80 2.83 3.12 1.3% 10.1% 6.1% 20.9 20.7 18.8 17.5

Regis Healthcare . REG-AU 992 3.30 2.2% 25% Hold 3.28 (0.5%) 7.4% 6.9% 5.0 0.19 0.17 0.20 (9.9%) 14.8% 3.9% 17.4 19.3 16.8 15.6

Sonic Healthcare SHL-AU 11,214 23.67 (0.1%) 7% Overweight 24.56 3.6% 5.1% 8.7% 3.4 1.12 1.18 1.26 5.2% 6.9% 5.8% 21.1 20.1 18.8 17.8

Virtus Health . VRT-AU 336 4.18 (0.9%) -5% Overweight 5.29 21.0% 9.2% 30.2% 2.1 0.39 0.40 0.43 2.8% 7.0% 5.0% 10.8 10.5 9.8 9.3

Average 17.5 17.6 16.2 15.2

Median 17.5 18.9 16.9 15.4

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Blackmores BKL-AU 2,111 122.06 0.7% 0% Hold 125.70 2.9% 4.1% 7.0% 2.0 4.06 4.55 5.19 12.1% 14.1% 13.6% 30.1 26.8 23.5 20.5

Cochlear COH-AU 11,398 197.48 0.2% 14% Hold 181.99 (8.5%) 2.4% (6.1%) 3.6 4.27 4.73 5.33 10.9% 12.6% 11.6% 46.3 41.8 37.1 33.3

CSL CSL-AU 83,798 185.00 (1.2%) 0% Overweight 205.36 9.9% 1.5% 11.4% 2.5 5.18 5.93 6.66 14.6% 12.2% 12.4% 35.7 31.2 27.8 25.1

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH-AU 7,435 12.96 (0.9%) 5% Underweight 12.10 (7.1%) 1.8% (5.4%) 2.6 0.30 0.34 0.39 13.3% 14.0% 14.7% 42.7 37.7 33.0 28.3

Impedimed IPD-AU 89 0.24 (2.1%) 24% Buy 1.00 76.4% 0.0% 76.4% n/m -0.07 -0.06 -0.06 (9.5%) (8.9%) (36.0%) n/m n/m n/m n/m

Mayne Pharma MYX-AU 1,322 0.84 (0.6%) 8% Overweight 1.08 22.6% 0.0% 22.6% 1.1 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.7% 33.5% 18.9% 20.3 20.2 15.1 12.1

Mesoblast MSB-AU 581 1.17 (0.9%) 0% Buy 3.53 67.0% 0.0% 67.0% n/m -0.10 -0.26 -0.12 151.7% (54.4%) (117.5%) n/m n/m n/m #####

Nanosonics NAN-AU 1,053 3.51 (3.0%) 24% Buy 3.66 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 1.4 0.02 0.03 0.08 57.1% 176.7% 84.5% 183.8 117.0 42.3 29.2

Resmed CDI (ratio of 10 CDIs / 1 sh)RMD-AU 20,048 13.99 (0.1%) -12% Hold 15.27 8.4% 1.5% 9.9% 3.4 0.48 0.49 0.53 3.2% 8.7% 8.4% 29.3 28.4 26.2 23.1

Sirtex Medical SRX-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.73 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Starpharma Holdings SPL-AU 398 1.07 (1.8%) -10% Buy 2.00 46.5% 0.0% 46.5% n/m -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 (13.3%) 19.2% (164.4%) n/m n/m n/m 133.8

Average 55.5 43.3 29.3 264.3

Median 35.7 31.2 27.8 28.3

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Ausdrill ASL-AU 1,096 1.60 (0.6%) 34% Buy 2.07 22.7% 6.5% 29.2% 0.6 0.12 0.15 0.18 28.8% 17.2% 18.5% 13.6 10.6 9.0 8.2

Bingo Industries . BIN-AU 1,339 2.30 1.8% 24% Buy 2.99 23.1% 2.3% 25.4% 1.0 0.10 0.11 0.15 10.5% 41.2% 21.8% 23.8 21.5 15.2 13.2

Cardno CDD-AU 422 0.93 0.0% -7% #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m -0.03 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/mCIMIC CIM-AU 16,151 49.81 2.1% 15% Hold 47.75 (4.3%) 4.8% 0.4% 4.5 2.41 2.58 2.66 7.2% 3.1% 4.3% 20.7 19.3 18.7 18.2Clean Teq Holdings CLQ-AU 254 0.34 1.5% -9% Buy 1.35 74.9% 0.0% 74.9% n/m -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 (31.9%) 23.3% 39.8% n/m n/m n/m n/m

Cleanaway Waste Management .CWY-AU 4,391 2.15 (2.3%) 29% Hold 2.28 5.9% 2.3% 8.2% 1.5 0.05 0.07 0.08 30.2% 20.5% 20.5% 40.6 31.2 25.9 23.2

Downer EDI DOW-AU 4,371 7.35 (1.7%) 9% Overweight 7.86 6.5% 5.7% 12.3% 2.5 0.50 0.52 0.56 4.1% 8.0% 5.7% 14.6 14.1 13.0 12.4

Mineral Resources MIN-AU 3,289 17.50 1.7% 13% Buy 20.22 13.4% 3.2% 16.7% (15.2) 1.45 0.61 1.40 (58.4%) 131.7% (1.9%) 12.0 28.9 12.5 12.8

Monadelphous MND-AU 1,555 16.50 0.8% 20% Hold 14.41 (14.5%) 4.9% (9.6%) 3.2 0.76 0.66 0.83 (13.4%) 25.3% 7.9% 21.7 25.1 20.0 17.3

RCR Tomlinson RCR-AU ###### ##### Hold 1.20 #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m -0.04 0.14 0.14 (437.9%) 0.4% (243.1%) n/m n/m n/m n/m

Tox Free Solutions TOX-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Worleyparsons WOR-AU 7,041 15.28 (0.4%) 34% Overweight 18.35 16.7% 2.8% 19.5% 1.0 0.61 0.64 0.97 4.8% 52.0% 23.3% 25.1 23.9 15.7 13.4

Average 29.7 26.4 20.5 91.7

Median 21.1 20.7 18.7 17.7

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Adelaide Brighton ABC-AU 3,214 4.94 0.4% 16% Hold 4.92 (0.3%) 7.5% 7.2% 6.3 0.30 0.29 0.31 (2.6%) 5.5% 2.6% 16.3 16.7 15.9 15.1

Alacer Gold CDI repr 1 Sh AQG-AU 1,055 3.59 1.4% 42% Buy 4.55 21.1% 0.5% 21.6% 0.3 0.21 0.48 0.52 130.9% 9.1% 28.2% 17.3 7.5 6.9 8.2

Alumina AWC-AU 7,545 2.62 0.0% 14% Buy 2.69 2.7% 16.0% 18.7% 0.6 0.15 0.33 0.26 120.0% (21.2%) 13.0% 17.4 7.9 10.1 12.1

Beadell Resources BDR-AU 95 0.06 (8.1%) 12% Buy 0.07 18.6% 0.0% 18.6% (0.1) -0.08 0.00 -0.05 (102.5%) (2562.1%) (271.9%) n/m 27.8 n/m 0.1

BHP Billiton BHP-AU 107,435 36.47 (0.5%) 7% Overweight 36.24 (0.6%) 12.7% 12.1% 6.2 2.28 2.63 2.57 15.0% (2.1%) 2.2% 16.0 13.9 14.2 14.9

Bluescope Steel BSL-AU 6,465 12.12 (0.3%) 11% Overweight 15.68 22.7% 2.0% 24.7% (13.7) 1.48 1.83 1.49 23.4% (18.7%) (0.5%) 8.2 6.6 8.1 8.3

Boral BLD-AU 5,721 4.88 0.2% -1% Overweight 5.81 16.1% 6.5% 22.5% 1.8 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.1% 11.0% 6.7% 12.1 12.1 10.9 10.0

Brickworks BKW-AU 2,708 18.08 0.6% 9% Hold 17.17 (5.3%) 3.7% (1.6%) (1.5) 1.50 1.47 1.10 (1.7%) (25.0%) (8.2%) 12.1 12.3 16.4 15.6

Dacian Gold . DCN-AU 609 2.70 3.8% 8% Buy 3.00 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% (0.0) -0.03 0.21 0.48 (926.7%) 123.7% (352.9%) n/m 12.6 5.6 6.4

Evolution Mining EVN-AU 6,381 3.76 1.1% 2% Hold 3.52 (6.8%) 3.0% (3.8%) 3.0 0.16 0.14 0.20 (12.7%) 44.0% 9.2% 24.2 27.8 19.3 18.6

Fletcher Building FBU-AU 4,344 5.09 1.2% 9% Hold 5.30 3.9% 6.8% 10.7% (0.0) -0.07 0.42 0.42 (670.0%) 0.1% (279.6%) n/m 12.2 12.2 12.0

Fortescue Metals FMG-AU 19,305 6.27 (0.8%) 50% Hold 6.01 (4.4%) 9.4% 5.0% 0.7 0.38 0.73 0.65 89.9% (10.5%) 12.0% 16.3 8.6 9.6 11.6

Galaxy Resources GXY-AU 823 2.02 0.5% -7% Buy 3.31 38.9% 0.0% 38.9% 0.1 0.00 0.04 0.05 9923.4% 15.9% 366.4% 4,811.4 48.0 41.4 47.4

Gold Road Resources GOR-AU 706 0.81 1.9% 24% Buy 0.93 13.2% 0.0% 13.2% n/m 0.26 -0.02 0.00 (105.7%) (122.2%) (37.7%) 3.1 n/m 241.5 12.8

Highfield Resources HFR-AU 208 0.63 (3.1%) -2% Buy 1.00 37.0% 0.0% 37.0% n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Iluka Resources ILU-AU 3,920 9.28 (1.1%) 22% Buy 10.99 15.6% 3.6% 19.2% 0.2 0.23 0.73 1.02 221.1% 39.1% 60.7% 40.6 12.7 9.1 9.8

Independence NL IGO-AU 2,799 4.74 0.0% 24% Overweight 4.65 (2.0%) 2.0% 0.0% 0.8 0.09 0.13 0.28 42.0% 120.3% 47.1% 53.0 37.3 16.9 16.7

James Hardie Chess Units JHX-AU 7,740 17.50 1.4% 16% Buy 20.74 15.6% 4.6% 20.3% 1.4 0.87 0.97 1.11 11.4% 14.3% 12.6% 20.1 18.1 15.8 14.1

Lynas Corporation LYC-AU 1,222 1.84 11.9% 16% Buy 2.93 37.4% 0.0% 37.4% 0.6 0.08 0.06 0.19 (23.4%) 202.2% 52.5% 22.1 28.9 9.6 6.2

MACA MLD-AU 264 0.99 (0.5%) 5% Overweight 1.24 20.4% 6.3% 26.6% 5.6 0.09 0.06 0.08 (28.1%) 20.7% 2.7% 11.0 15.3 12.7 10.2

Metals X MLX-AU 252 0.37 0.0% -14% Buy 0.77 52.4% 0.9% 53.4% (0.5) -0.04 0.00 0.10 (107.0%) 3158.3% (237.9%) n/m 121.7 3.7 3.2

Newcrest Mining NCM-AU 19,114 24.88 (0.4%) 14% Hold 23.79 (4.6%) 1.1% (3.5%) 2.1 0.85 1.00 1.28 17.7% 28.4% 12.0% 29.4 25.0 19.5 20.9

Northern Star Resources NST-AU 6,241 9.76 1.7% 6% Hold 8.81 (10.8%) 2.0% (8.8%) 0.7 0.32 0.42 0.64 34.3% 50.2% 31.8% 31.0 23.1 15.4 13.5

OceanaGold CDI repr 1 sh OGC-AU 2,732 4.42 0.5% -9% Overweight 4.88 9.5% 1.7% 11.1% (1.7) 0.36 0.30 0.22 (16.2%) (27.2%) (8.5%) 12.4 14.8 20.3 16.2

Orocobre ORE-AU 792 3.03 (0.7%) -6% Buy 5.22 42.0% 0.0% 42.0% 0.5 0.06 0.10 0.13 76.1% 24.3% 54.4% 52.3 29.7 23.9 14.2

OZ Minerals OZL-AU 3,271 10.10 (0.1%) 15% Overweight 10.60 4.7% 3.0% 7.7% (23.6) 0.77 0.72 0.57 (6.4%) (21.3%) (0.6%) 13.1 14.0 17.8 13.4

Perseus Mining PRU-AU 420 0.41 3.8% -4% Buy 0.63 35.7% 0.0% 35.7% (0.1) -0.03 0.02 0.02 (182.0%) 18.7% (215.2%) n/m 19.8 16.6 10.6

Pilbara Minerals PLS-AU 1,151 0.66 1.5% 6% Buy 1.06 37.5% 0.3% 37.8% (0.1) -0.01 0.02 0.07 (276.7%) 240.8% (323.9%) n/m 31.4 9.2 4.9

Regis Resources RRL-AU 2,767 5.45 2.3% 13% Hold 4.81 (13.3%) 4.4% (9.0%) 5.0 0.35 0.33 0.38 (3.8%) 15.3% 3.3% 15.8 16.4 14.2 14.3

Resolute Mining RSG-AU 807 1.07 0.9% -8% Overweight 1.49 28.7% 2.6% 31.3% 0.3 0.09 0.09 0.20 1.9% 127.3% 36.2% 12.2 12.0 5.3 4.8

Rio Tinto RIO-AU 33,892 91.30 (0.7%) 16% Overweight 89.44 (2.1%) 6.9% 4.8% (4.7) 7.12 7.69 6.85 8.0% (10.9%) (2.5%) 12.8 11.9 13.3 13.8

Sandfire Resources NL SFR-AU 1,270 7.96 2.3% 19% Hold 7.67 (3.8%) 4.5% 0.6% 0.7 0.78 0.69 1.23 (10.9%) 77.3% 16.2% 10.2 11.5 6.5 6.5

Saracen Mineral Holdings SAR-AU 2,559 3.12 2.0% 6% Underweight 2.62 (19.3%) 0.4% (18.9%) 0.7 0.09 0.16 0.19 70.5% 19.9% 29.2% 33.9 19.9 16.6 15.7

Silver Lake Resources SLR-AU 312 0.62 2.5% 11% Buy 0.79 21.7% 0.0% 21.7% 0.3 0.03 0.06 0.08 94.6% 28.5% 35.7% 19.5 10.0 7.8 7.8

Sims Metal Management SGM-AU 2,262 11.16 (0.1%) 11% Hold 11.09 (0.6%) 5.5% 4.9% (16.6) 0.93 0.79 0.89 (15.3%) 12.2% (0.9%) 12.0 14.1 12.6 12.3

South32 . S32-AU 19,246 3.81 0.3% 14% Overweight 3.79 (0.4%) 6.8% 6.4% (4.2) 0.35 0.34 0.33 (2.7%) (4.4%) (2.7%) 10.8 11.1 11.6 11.7

St. Barbara . SBM-AU 2,658 5.07 1.2% 8% Hold 4.49 (12.8%) 2.1% (10.7%) (2.2) 0.44 0.33 0.34 (24.7%) 3.7% (7.0%) 11.6 15.4 14.8 14.4

Syrah Resources SYR-AU 459 1.34 0.0% -11% Overweight 2.82 52.7% 0.0% 52.7% n/m -0.06 -0.07 -0.04 27.5% (50.4%) (232.7%) n/m n/m n/m 9.8

Western Areas WSA-AU 667 2.44 0.8% 22% Overweight 2.61 6.5% 1.2% 7.8% 0.5 0.04 0.06 0.18 41.0% 199.5% 79.0% 57.1 40.5 13.5 10.0

Westgold Resources WGX-AU 440 1.13 2.7% 28% Buy 1.93 41.3% 0.0% 41.3% (0.1) 0.00 0.02 0.22 (688.2%) 975.0% (529.8%) n/m 56.5 5.3 4.2

Average 170.9 22.3 19.6 12.1

Median 16.3 15.3 13.3 12.0

Non-Energy Minerals Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth P/E

Health Services Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth P/E

Health Technology Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth P/E

Industrial Services Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth P/E

Page 11: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Amcor AMC-AU 17,071 14.74 0.5% 11% Overweight 15.30 3.7% 4.4% 8.1% 2.3 0.85 0.88 0.98 3.2% 11.3% 7.1% 17.3 16.8 15.1 14.1

Costa Holdings . CGC-AU 1,619 5.06 0.8% -32% Overweight 5.63 10.2% 2.8% 13.0% 1.7 0.24 0.26 0.30 9.4% 14.0% 11.5% 21.1 19.3 16.9 15.2

Dulux DLX-AU 2,740 7.04 (0.8%) 7% Hold 7.25 2.9% 5.8% 8.7% 7.0 0.39 0.39 0.41 (0.2%) 4.4% 2.6% 18.1 18.1 17.4 16.8

Elders ELD-AU 676 5.79 (5.2%) -18% Underweight 7.41 21.8% 0.0% 21.8% 1.2 0.54 0.59 0.64 8.4% 8.8% 8.0% 10.7 9.9 9.1 8.5

Incitec Pivot IPL-AU 5,267 3.28 (1.5%) 0% Overweight 3.85 14.8% 4.0% 18.8% 1.4 0.21 0.23 0.26 9.8% 14.1% 10.5% 15.7 14.3 12.5 11.6

Inghams . ING-AU 1,681 4.42 (1.8%) 7% Underweight 3.79 (16.8%) 6.7% (10.1%) 2.4 0.27 0.29 0.32 6.3% 9.2% 6.3% 16.1 15.2 13.9 13.4

Nufarm NUF-AU 2,107 5.55 (1.8%) -7% Overweight 7.54 26.4% 2.2% 28.6% 0.5 0.28 0.40 0.50 44.0% 25.5% 26.6% 20.0 13.9 11.1 9.9Orica ORI-AU 6,915 18.20 0.7% 6% Hold 17.80 (2.2%) 3.0% 0.8% 1.5 0.85 0.93 1.08 9.8% 16.0% 12.7% 21.4 19.5 16.8 15.0Orora . ORA-AU 3,946 3.27 (3.0%) 7% Overweight 3.58 8.7% 4.6% 13.3% 2.8 0.17 0.18 0.19 5.1% 6.3% 6.4% 18.8 17.9 16.8 15.6

Pact Holdings . PGH-AU 1,046 3.04 1.7% -12% Hold 3.69 17.7% 6.8% 24.5% ###### 0.30 0.24 0.27 (18.7%) 13.5% (0.0%) 10.3 12.6 11.1 10.3

Ridley Corporation RIC-AU 431 1.40 0.0% 8% Hold 1.68 16.7% 4.7% 21.4% 0.9 0.06 0.08 0.08 36.6% 10.5% 20.1% 25.0 18.3 16.6 14.4

Tassal TGR-AU 851 4.80 (1.0%) 9% Overweight 5.06 5.0% 5.3% 10.3% 1.4 0.29 0.32 0.36 12.1% 11.4% 10.9% 16.6 14.8 13.3 12.1

Webster WBA-AU 580 1.60 0.0% -2% Hold 1.89 15.3% 2.7% 18.0% 16.6 0.08 0.05 0.08 (38.6%) 65.6% 2.1% 21.1 34.4 20.8 19.9

Average 17.9 17.3 14.7 13.6

Median 18.1 16.8 15.1 14.1

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Ainsworth Game Technology AGI-AU 274 0.82 3.8% 3% Underweight 0.84 3.3% 3.5% 6.8% (3.8) 0.09 0.05 0.07 (44.0%) 35.0% (4.3%) 9.1 16.2 12.0 10.3

Ansell ANN-AU 3,213 24.22 (1.5%) 10% Overweight 25.39 4.6% 2.8% 7.4% 1.9 1.40 1.48 1.65 6.1% 11.2% 8.4% 17.3 16.4 14.7 13.6

Austal ASB-AU 803 2.28 1.3% 17% Buy 2.44 6.5% 3.4% 9.8% 0.8 0.11 0.15 0.17 35.0% 9.8% 17.8% 20.4 15.1 13.7 12.5

CSR CSR-AU 1,619 3.21 1.9% 14% Hold 3.23 0.6% 11.6% 12.2% (0.7) 0.42 0.37 0.31 (13.0%) (15.2%) (13.0%) 7.6 8.7 10.3 11.5

GWA GWA-AU 845 3.20 0.0% 15% Overweight 3.27 2.1% 7.1% 9.2% 2.8 0.19 0.20 0.21 4.4% 7.6% 5.8% 16.9 16.2 15.1 14.3

Imdex IMD-AU 455 1.21 (1.6%) 13% Overweight 1.50 19.5% 1.7% 21.2% 0.8 0.05 0.06 0.08 18.5% 25.9% 24.2% 22.5 19.0 15.1 11.8

Reliance Worldwide Corp. . RWC-AU 3,895 4.93 0.4% 11% Buy 5.50 10.3% 3.1% 13.4% 1.0 0.15 0.21 0.25 44.4% 19.0% 24.1% 33.8 23.4 19.6 17.7

Average 18.2 16.4 14.4 13.1

Median 17.3 16.2 14.7 12.5

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Automotive Holdings AHG-AU 542 1.64 (8.1%) 5% Hold 1.89 13.6% 9.8% 23.4% (3.8) 0.23 0.16 0.18 (27.3%) 12.0% (2.6%) 7.3 10.0 8.9 7.9

Baby Bunting . BBN-AU 277 2.19 (6.0%) 1% Overweight 2.57 14.9% 5.3% 20.2% 0.5 0.07 0.11 0.14 66.5% 24.9% 35.7% 31.7 19.1 15.3 12.7

Harvey Norman Holdings HVN-AU 4,200 3.56 1.1% 13% Hold 3.37 (5.7%) 10.3% 4.6% (3.2) 0.33 0.31 0.30 (7.8%) (3.2%) (3.6%) 10.7 11.6 12.0 11.9

JB Hi-Fi JBH-AU 2,655 23.11 1.9% 4% Hold 24.04 3.9% 8.5% 12.3% 7.6 2.01 2.10 2.07 4.3% (1.5%) 1.4% 11.5 11.0 11.2 11.0

Myer Holdings MYR-AU 304 0.37 0.0% -11% Underweight 0.39 5.1% 0.0% 5.1% (8.3) 0.04 0.04 0.04 (11.4%) 10.7% (1.3%) 9.4 10.6 9.5 9.7

Nick Scali NCK-AU 475 5.86 1.0% 11% Overweight 6.22 5.8% 8.2% 14.0% 1.8 0.51 0.54 0.56 6.5% 4.4% 6.0% 11.6 10.9 10.4 9.7

Premier Investments PMV-AU 2,485 15.71 0.1% 7% Overweight 16.71 6.0% 6.1% 12.1% 1.7 0.76 0.81 0.92 7.2% 13.9% 11.4% 20.8 19.4 17.0 15.1

RCG Corporation RCG-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Super Retail SUL-AU 1,532 7.76 0.9% 10% Overweight 8.87 12.5% 9.3% 21.8% 2.4 0.74 0.77 0.81 4.6% 4.5% 4.3% 10.5 10.1 9.6 9.3

Vita VTG-AU 224 1.39 4.9% 32% Buy #VALUE! 10.8% ###### n/m 0.14 0.17 0.12 20.3% (28.8%) #VALUE! 9.8 8.2 11.5 n/m

Wesfarmers WES-AU 37,757 33.30 0.1% 3% Hold 32.14 (3.6%) 5.3% 1.7% 14.9 1.84 1.87 1.83 1.2% (2.0%) 1.2% 18.1 17.9 18.2 17.4

Woolworths WOW-AU 39,562 30.03 0.8% 2% Hold 29.57 (1.5%) 4.9% 3.3% 2.6 1.23 1.39 1.47 12.8% 5.5% 8.2% 24.4 21.6 20.5 19.3

Average 15.1 13.7 13.1 12.4

Median 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.5

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Aconex ACX-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Afterpay Touch . APT-AU 4,395 18.57 1.1% 50% Buy 18.71 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% (0.9) -0.04 0.06 0.20 (250.0%) 234.2% (329.8%) n/m 309.5 92.6 38.2Altium ALU-AU 3,524 27.00 (0.1%) 24% Overweight 25.86 (4.4%) 1.4% (3.0%) 1.8 0.39 0.54 0.66 37.6% 22.1% 27.6% 68.7 50.0 40.9 33.1

Appen . APX-AU 1,903 17.85 (0.5%) 39% Overweight 15.76 (13.2%) 0.6% (12.7%) 1.0 0.20 0.38 0.50 92.1% 31.3% 45.2% 89.9 46.8 35.6 29.4

Computershare CPU-AU 9,909 18.25 (2.2%) 6% Hold 18.74 2.6% 3.6% 6.2% 1.6 0.88 1.00 1.09 14.0% 9.6% 11.1% 20.8 18.3 16.7 15.2

GBST Holdings GBT-AU 113 1.66 (4.0%) 10% Buy 2.10 20.8% 0.2% 21.0% 1.0 0.12 0.13 0.14 8.8% 7.4% 12.6% 13.8 12.7 11.8 9.7

Hansen Technologies HSN-AU 676 3.43 (0.3%) -2% #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m 0.15 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 23.3 n/m n/m n/m

Infomedia IFM-AU 437 1.40 1.4% 19% Overweight 1.48 5.6% 3.7% 9.4% 1.6 0.04 0.05 0.06 17.7% 18.2% 17.7% 33.7 28.7 24.2 20.7

IRESS IRE-AU 2,167 12.51 (0.4%) 13% Hold 12.50 (0.1%) 4.7% 4.6% 3.9 0.45 0.44 0.49 (1.6%) 11.5% 7.3% 27.9 28.4 25.4 22.6iSentia ISD-AU 61 0.31 (1.6%) 9% Underweight 0.46 33.0% 0.0% 33.0% (2.3) 0.06 0.04 0.05 (28.6%) 17.7% (3.2%) 5.3 7.4 6.3 5.8Link Administration Holdings . LNK-AU 3,688 6.93 (1.3%) 2% Overweight 8.11 14.5% 4.4% 18.9% 4.3 0.42 0.42 0.44 0.7% 5.2% 3.8% 16.7 16.6 15.7 14.9

MYOB . MYO-AU 2,021 3.42 0.0% 2% Hold 3.35 (2.2%) 4.9% 2.7% 26.0 0.17 0.16 0.16 (3.9%) 1.4% 0.8% 20.2 21.1 20.8 19.8

Nextdc NXT-AU 2,405 6.98 1.2% 14% Overweight 8.40 16.9% 0.0% 16.9% n/m 0.02 0.00 0.02 (109.3%) (1088.0%) 45.9% 315.6 n/m 343.2 101.6

Technology One TNE-AU 2,324 7.33 (1.1%) 19% Hold 5.88 (24.7%) 2.2% (22.5%) 2.9 0.16 0.18 0.21 11.4% 16.8% 14.2% 45.5 40.9 35.0 30.6

Trade Me TME-AU 2,437 6.14 0.3% 3% Hold 5.95 (3.2%) 5.4% 2.2% 2.6 0.22 0.25 0.27 14.1% 6.9% 9.4% 27.7 24.3 22.7 21.1

Wisetech Global . WTC-AU 6,771 22.49 0.3% 33% Hold 18.44 (21.9%) 0.2% (21.7%) 2.6 0.14 0.21 0.29 48.4% 39.7% 41.3% 161.8 109.0 78.0 57.3

Xero XRO-AU 6,798 48.31 (0.6%) 15% Hold 47.02 (2.7%) 0.0% (2.7%) n/m -0.19 -0.10 0.24 (47.1%) (346.8%) (245.7%) n/m n/m 200.0 84.3

Average 41.4 36.1 43.1 25.5

Median 20.2 18.3 17.6 17.4

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

amaysim Australia . AYS-AU 207 0.98 0.0% -1% Hold 1.11 11.9% 0.0% 11.9% 0.2 0.06 0.12 0.14 103.4% 15.4% 34.2% 16.6 8.2 7.1 6.9

Chorus CNU-AU 2,198 5.04 0.2% 9% Overweight 4.55 (10.8%) 4.2% (6.6%) (4.2) 0.15 0.14 0.10 (5.9%) (28.6%) (8.6%) 34.6 36.7 51.4 45.3

Spark New Zealand SPK-AU 7,161 3.90 (0.5%) -3% Hold 3.60 (8.4%) 6.1% (2.3%) 2.4 0.19 0.22 0.23 13.5% 4.3% 7.5% 20.4 18.0 17.2 16.4

SpeedCast International SDA-AU 771 3.22 1.3% 11% Overweight 3.98 19.1% 2.1% 21.2% 0.6 0.24 0.29 0.37 17.4% 30.5% 17.7% 13.2 11.2 8.6 8.1

Superloop . SLC-AU 350 1.53 2.0% 1% Buy 3.00 49.0% 0.2% 49.2% 2.2 0.03 0.01 0.05 (54.4%) 231.0% 48.0% 48.1 105.5 31.9 14.9

Telstra Corporation TLS-AU 37,821 3.18 1.3% 12% Hold 3.32 4.3% 5.4% 9.6% (1.2) 0.30 0.20 0.21 (33.0%) 3.0% (12.9%) 10.6 15.8 15.4 16.0TPG Telecom TPM-AU 6,244 6.73 (2.5%) 5% Hold 7.06 4.7% 0.6% 5.3% (1.0) 0.47 0.38 0.25 (18.5%) (33.3%) (18.5%) 14.4 17.7 26.5 26.6

Vocus VOC-AU 2,253 3.62 (0.5%) 13% Hold 3.18 (14.0%) 0.1% (13.9%) 17.7 0.20 0.17 0.18 (16.3%) 6.7% 1.2% 17.8 21.2 19.9 17.1

Average 22.0 29.3 22.2 18.9

Median 17.2 17.8 18.6 16.2

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

Auckland International Airport AIA-AU 8,658 7.17 (0.1%) 7% Underweight 6.27 (14.4%) 3.0% (11.3%) 5.6 0.20 0.22 0.22 7.5% 3.6% 5.9% 35.6 33.1 32.0 30.0

Aurizon Holdings . AZJ-AU 9,194 4.62 1.8% 8% Hold 4.47 (3.4%) 4.8% 1.4% (15.5) 0.27 0.22 0.25 (18.0%) 14.8% (1.4%) 17.2 21.0 18.3 17.9

Macquarie Atlas Roads MQA-AU ###### ##### #VALUE! #VALUE! ###### n/m #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n/m n/m n/m n/m

Qantas Airways QAN-AU 9,315 5.73 0.5% -1% Overweight 6.71 14.6% 3.5% 18.1% 1.6 0.64 0.63 0.70 (1.9%) 11.3% 5.6% 9.0 9.1 8.2 7.6

Qube Holdings . QUB-AU 4,496 2.80 1.1% 10% Hold 2.80 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.2 0.07 0.08 0.09 18.2% 17.5% 16.4% 41.8 35.3 30.1 26.5

Sealink Travel . SLK-AU 412 4.06 0.7% -4% Buy 4.97 18.3% 5.8% 24.1% 0.7 0.19 0.28 0.31 42.5% 11.8% 21.1% 21.0 14.8 13.2 11.9

Sydney Airport SYD-AU 15,574 6.90 (0.6%) 3% Hold 7.09 2.6% 5.5% 8.1% 5.0 0.16 0.17 0.18 8.0% 8.8% 8.2% 44.4 41.1 37.8 35.0

Transurban . TCL-AU 32,585 12.18 (0.1%) 5% Overweight 12.54 2.9% 4.8% 7.7% 22.6 0.22 0.15 0.19 (30.1%) 23.1% 3.6% 56.5 80.9 65.7 50.9

Average 32.2 33.6 29.3 25.7

Median 35.6 33.1 30.1 26.5

CAGR

FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 (3 yr) FY0 (x) FY1 (x) FY2 (x) FY3 (x)

AGL Energy AGL-AU 14,461 22.05 1.1% 7% Hold 20.88 (5.6%) 7.2% 1.5% (7.2) 1.56 1.62 1.57 3.9% (3.1%) (1.9%) 14.1 13.6 14.0 15.0

APA APA-AU 10,878 9.22 (0.3%) 8% Hold 8.76 (5.3%) 6.8% 1.5% 3.3 0.23 0.25 0.29 8.6% 16.7% 11.0% 40.1 36.9 31.6 29.3

AusNet Services AST-AU 6,356 1.74 0.0% 12% Hold 1.67 (4.3%) 6.6% 2.3% (8.3) 0.08 0.07 0.07 (13.2%) (1.2%) (3.0%) 21.5 24.8 25.1 23.6

ERM Power EPW-AU 403 1.59 (1.2%) 1% Buy 1.71 7.3% 5.0% 12.4% 1.5 0.12 0.09 0.32 (24.4%) 241.9% 11.4% 12.9 17.0 5.0 9.3

Infigen Energy IFN-AU 483 0.51 4.1% 9% Buy 0.74 32.1% 2.0% 34.0% (0.5) 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.2% (19.0%) (20.6%) 10.5 10.5 13.0 21.0

Origin Energy ORG-AU 13,196 7.50 0.8% 16% Buy 8.64 13.2% 2.7% 15.9% 0.9 0.48 0.61 0.64 27.9% 4.8% 13.4% 15.7 12.3 11.7 10.8

Spark Infrastructure . SKI-AU 3,768 2.24 0.0% 1% Hold 2.31 2.9% 7.1% 10.0% 6.7 0.05 0.06 0.07 22.6% 0.9% 5.2% 42.5 34.7 34.4 36.5

Average 22.5 21.4 19.3 20.8

Median 15.7 17.0 14.0 21.0

P/E

Producer Manufacturing

Retail Trade

Technology ServicesUp/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

P/E

Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

P/E Ticker

Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Communications Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

Process Industries Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

P/E

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth P/E

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

P/E

Transportation Ticker Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

EPS Underlying ($) EPS Growth

P/EUtilities Ticker

Mkt Cap

A$m

Closing

Price

Day

Mvt

YTD

Mvt

Factset

Rating

Factset

TP (A$)

Up/(Do

wnside)

Gross

Yield

Total

Return

PEG

Ratio

Page 12: APP Insights Monday, February 18, 2019 Rate (%) Aust 10yr ... · Trump hints at extension to China trade talks, U.S.-China trade talks to resume in Washington this week; European

APP Securities Pty Ltd ABN 45 112 871 842 18 February 2019

Sydney Office: Level 41, 259 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 9226 0000 Website: www.appsecurities.com.au

This Dealer Note has been prepared and issued in Australia by APP Securities Pty Ltd (ABN 45 112 871 842) (AFSL 307 706) (APP Securities) and remains the property of APP Securities. No material contained in this Dealer Note may be reproduced or distributed, except as allowed by the Copyright Act, without the prior written approval of APP Securities.

Disclosure

APP Securities and its associates may from time to time, have an interest in the Financial Products or hold securities in any of the companies to which this document refers and may trade in the securities mentioned either as principal or agent. APP Securities seeks to do business with companies covered in its Dealer Note reports. APP Securities may earn brokerage, commissions, fees and other benefits, whether pecuniary or not and whether direct or indirect, in connection with any of the Financial Products in any of the companies to which this document refers. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The Dealer Note analysts, who are responsible for Dealer Note referenced in this document, individually certify that all of the views expressed in the relevant Dealer Note report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. The Dealer Note analysts also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) in the relevant reports.

Disclaimer & Warning

This report may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. Before making an investment or trading decision, the recipient must consider Market developments subsequent to the date of this document, and whether the advice is appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or seek further advice on its appropriateness or should form his/her own independent view given the person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs regarding any securities or Financial Products mentioned herein. Information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither APP Securities nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the Financial Products or the accuracy, or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This document is not an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of any Financial Product, and neither this document or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by APP Securities, its associates, officers, directors, employees and agents. The securities of such company (ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors.

Analysts’ Compensation: the Dealer Note analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of the analyst(s) Dealer Note, client evaluation feedback, independent survey rankings and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units and corporate finance.

Other International Investors: International investors outside the United States, United Kingdom, or Canada are encouraged to contact their local regulatory authorities to determine whether any restrictions apply to their ability to purchase this investment and should seek their own advice.

Recipient Representations/Warranties: By accepting this report, the recipient represents and warrants that he or she is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set out in this document and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law.

Meanings of APP Securities Stock Ratings

Buy – Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus gross yield) of 10% or more within a 12-month period.

Hold – Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus gross yield) of 0% to 10% within a 12-month period.

Sell – Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus gross yield) of less than 0% within a 12-month period.

NR – The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/or APP Securities policies.

CS – Coverage Suspended. APP Securities has suspended coverage of this company.

Speculative Buy – Describes stocks we research with a positive bias, whose company fundamentals and/or financials are being covered, but for which there is insufficient information for APP Securities to assign a Buy or Sell rating.

Speculative Sell – Describes stocks we research with a negative bias, whose company fundamentals and/or financials are being covered, but for which there is insufficient information for APP Securities to assign a Buy or Sell rating.

Monitor – Describes stocks whose company fundamentals and/or financials are being monitored, or for which no financial projections or opinions on the investment merits of the company are provided.

It is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

Free Float (float / current shares outstanding) *100 – This float figure is the number of shares that are available to the public and is calculated by subtracting the shares held by insiders and those deemed to be stagnant shareholders. Stagnant holders include ESOP's, ESOT's, QUEST's, employee benefit trusts, founding shareholder equity stake plus senior management equity stake, corporations not actively managing money, venture capital companies and shares held by Governments.

Terminal Value methodology - APP Securities’ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation applies a terminal growth rate to the last forecast year's cash flow and discounts the amount using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). The Terminal Value is tested using ASX-listed company multiples. For resource companies, there is no terminal value because cash flows are forecast to the end of mine life.

SALES AND TRADING:

Institutional Sales:

+612 9226 0079

Corporate Sales:

+612 9226 0119

Retail Sales:

+612 9226 0135

Asia Desk:

+612 9226 2166

Email:

[email protected]

INVESTMENT BANKING:

Phone No.

+612 9226 0081

+612 9226 0174

Email:

[email protected]

RESEARCH:

Phone No.

+612 9226 0073

Email:

[email protected]