APEC Growth Strategy - The Growth That APEC...

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2010/HLRT/015

APEC Growth Strategy - The Growth That APEC Should Aim For

Purpose: Information

Submitted by: Toshiba Corporation

APEC Growth Strategy High-Level Policy Round Table

Beppu, Japan 7-8 August 2010

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APEC Growth StrategyAPEC Growth Strategy- The growth that APEC should aim for -

Atsutoshi Nishida

7 August, 2010 APEC Symposium in Beppu Copyright 2010, Toshiba Corporation 11

Atsutoshi NishidaChairman, Toshiba Corporation

7 August, 2010

The 21 APEC Economies

Canada

Russia

Hong Kong,

China

China

PhilippinesBrunei

Canada

ThailandPeru

Chinese Taipei

Papua New Guinea

Korea

Japan

Mexico

USA

27 August, 2010 APEC Symposium in Beppu Copyright 2010, Toshiba Corporation

AustraliaSingaporeMalaysia

New Zealand

Peru

Chile

Indonesia

Indicates a G20 memberCountry

Viet Nam

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Regional Economic Integration in Asia Pacific

Japan, China, Korea APECUS$32T

ASEANIndonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand

LaosMyanmarCambodia

Australia, New Zealand

Brunei, Singapore, Viet Nam

India

ASEAN+3US$12T

ASEANUS$2T


USA, Peru, Chile

Canada, Mexico, Papua New Guinea,Hong Kong China, Chinese Taipei, Russia

TPP US$16T

ASEAN+6US$14T

US$ values are based on 2009 GDPSource: IMF

APEC in the World

APEC APEC

Population (2009 estimate)

GDP (2009)

55% 40%

Trade (2008)

Source: IMF

Final Energy Consumption(2007)

Source: UN


APEC44% APEC

62%

Source: IEASource: APEC Secretariat

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12 014.016.018.020.0

GDP Growth in APEC vs World

(%)

-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

World OECD APEC APEC Asia

Forecast

16 0


* APEC Asia: China, Hong Kong China, Chinese Taipei,Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Viet Nam, Brunei, Papua New Guinea

Source: IMF

-16.0

A 2.9 times rise from 1980 to 2030

Final Energy Consumption in APEC

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

23.4

38.246.6

56.5

67.6

Unit: billion tonnes (oil equivalent)


0

1

1980 2002 2010 2020 2030

Coal Oil Gas Renewables Electricity Others

Source: APERC, 2006

(F) (F) (F)

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Global CO2 Emissions (2007)

World total: 29.1 billion tonnes (CO2 equivalent)

APEC: 62.0%Rest of World: 38.0%

China20.8%

USA19.9%

Russia5 5%Oth


Source: IEA “CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion” (2009)

5.5%Japan4.3%

OtherAPEC

members11.6%

Access to Asian MarketFinancial Center (equity

APEC Growth Strategy Japan’s New Growth Strategy

APEC Growth Strategy and Japan’s New Growth Strategy

Balanced GrowthEnhance Asian Demand Financial Center (equity,

finance and commodities)

Environment, Energy

Science, Technology, ICT

Enhance Asian DemandRegulate Economic Imbalance

Sustainable GrowthGreen growth

Innovative GrowthInnovation & new industries


Increased EmploymentLocal revitalization via tourism

Health (medical, nursing care）

Inclusive GrowthGrowth for all

Secure GrowthFood security, pandemics, disasters and terrorism

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Infrastructure Demand in Asia - 1

Water supply & Sewerage

$0.4T(5%)ICT

Projected total demandfor infrastructure

Energy$4.1T(51%)

Transportation$2.5T(31%)

(5%)ICT$1.0T(13%)

in 2010-2020: US$8.3T= US$750B/Y= US$750B/Y

US$8T = Infrastructure in each economyUS$0.3T = Regional projects

US$8.0T2010-20


* “Asia” here includes10 East Asian countries6 Southern Asian countries7 Central Asian countries and7 Pacific island countries (a total of 30 developing countries)

Source: ADB/ADBI

Energy Exploit oil and gas fieldsInfrastructure for transportation and storageRenewable and new energy sources

Focus areas


Renewable and new energy sourcesNuclear, high-efficiency coal-fired power generationSmart grid

Transportation Transportation infrastructure, portsModal shift (railway systems)

ICT Broadband networks


C oadba d et o sMobile network base stations, Cloud computing

Water supply Construction of facilities, Operation & maintenance& Sewerage Water recycling

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Trans-Asian Railway Project


US$8T = Infrastructure in each economyUS$0.3T = Regional projects

Trans-Asian Railway US$83BAsian Container Ports US$51B Asian Highway US$43Bothers

y j


others

Source: UNESCAP

Green Growth Mechanism

Green Growth

Energy efficiency & conservationCleaner use of fossil fuels (increased use of natural gas)Zero-emission power (nuclear, renewables)

Low carbon citiesModal shiftBilateral negotiations on climate change Emissions reduction policy in each economySectoral approach (power generation, steel, cement)Cleaner coal-fired power (CCS)

PPP, ODAAsian Pacific PartnershipEnvironmental fundPooling of IP

Policy & Plans

Environment & Climate Change

Energy Security


Cleaner coal fired power (CCS)EGS (energy-efficient product)

Water supply & sewerageRecyclingDesalinationData management for water resources & weather

Food Security Water SecurityReduced food lossesImproved productivity through biotechnologyDevelopment of plant strains that require less water (70% of global water is used for agriculture)

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Energy Security & Environment - 1

• Cleaner use of energy- Energy efficiency and conservation- Cleaner use of fossil fuels – more use of natural gasC ea e use o oss ue s o e use o a u a gas- Cleaner coal-fired power, CCS - Increased use of zero-emissions energy sources

renewables, nuclear

• Low-carbon town projects- Modal shift – increased use of trains

I ffi i f b ildi


- Improve energy efficiency of buildings- Introduction of eco-friendly vehicles and EGS

Energy Security & Environment - 2

• Negotiations on climate changeAPEC should seek to put in place a mechanism for crediting supporting operators that promote CO2 emissions through bilateral agreements.(supplement of CDM)

• Adoption of sectoral approach Accelerate technology transfers through APP in

* CDM: Clean Development Mechanism


Accelerate technology transfers through APP insectors with large GHG emissions, such as power generation and steel, etc.

* APP : Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate

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Energy Security

APEC Energy Ministerial Meeting, Fukui, 19 June

Fukui Declaration on Low Carbon Paths to Energy Security– Balance a low carbon society and economic growth –

gy y- Increased use of natural gas- Energy efficiency & conservation- Higher energy-efficiency vehicles

Cleaner Energy Supply- Zero-emission energy- Renewable energy


- Renewable energy- Nuclear power- CCS- Smart Grid- Low carbon city model projects

Water Security - 1

41% of global land (6.1 billion hectares), supporting a population of 2 billion, is in dry regionsOf this, 1 billion hectares are in danger of desertification:Asia 36%; Australia 8%; North America 8%

Every year 60 million hectares become desert(almost the same area as Kyushu and Shikoku Islands)

In Asia and Oceania, 700 million people do not have access to improved drinking water sources.

Source: UNEP

Source: FAO


Copyright NASACopyright Ministry of Environment, Japan

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Water Security - 2

Japan is a large importer of virtual water

Virtual water

W t d d t d i t d f dWater needed to produce imported food

Beef bowl 2 000 liters

Virtual water in a single serving


Beef bowl 2,000 litersHamburger 1,000 litersJapanese noodles 700 litersOmlette 600 liters

Source: Kazunari Yoshimura Source: Ministry of Environment, Japan

(100 million m3/Y)

Food Security

91 million tonnes/Y 69 million

24% of food lost in Japan’s supply chain

91 million tonnes/Y 69 million tonnes/Y

Supply chain1

11 million tonnes2 11 million tonnesFood loss

Harvest& Supply

Consumers


Notes 1: Includes food processing, dealers, retailers and restaurants2: Includes 3 million tonnes of commercially traded by-products

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japan (2007 estimate)

Total 22 million tonnes/Y

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ICT Supports a Smarter Society

Environment Office, Home Energy Management SystemEnergy Smart Grid

Energy efficiency of data centers

Medical Remote medicine, e-chartsSharing of clinical data

Education Remote classroomIntra-company e-learning

Public service On line tax processing & drivers licenses


Public service On-line tax processing & drivers licenses(e-government) Biometric passport control

Disaster Satellite-based disaster information collection and delivery

SME Support Policy

Challenges faced by SMEs in the Region

Access to Humanglobal market

Humanresources

Comprehensive SME supportpolicies and a support

organization are needed


Financing ICT

g

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• Increase of “Asian demand”- Enhance infrastructure and energy &

environment-related technology and industry

Summary & Recommendations to APEC - 1

• Utilization of PPP (Public Private Partnership)- Establish scheme to share risks between public and private

sectors in introducing PPP- Establish regulatory systems and rules in receiving

economies- Take flexible actions


• Measures to increase investment- Take measures to make savings and excess capital

available for investment, such as fostering bond markets- Offer tax breaks in the infrastructure and environmental

fields

Summary & Recommendations to APEC - 2

• Technical Assistance- Faster processing of patent applications & appropriate

protectionP l & i t l t h l i d IP d- Pool energy & environmental technologies and IP, andestablish funds in APEC that developing economies can use

• Standardization & Alignment- Harmonize standards to promote dissemination of technology and innovation

• Strengthen Policy Support Function St th APEC’ P li S t U it t h


- Strengthen APEC’s Policy Support Unit to enhance ability to plan strategies in the non-binding and diversified APEC region

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Thank you very much.


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