APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 7th Edition€¦ · Outlook 7th Edition OLADE Energy Week,...
Transcript of APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 7th Edition€¦ · Outlook 7th Edition OLADE Energy Week,...
APECEnergy Demand and Supply Outlook 7th Edition
OLADE Energy Week, Statistics Workshop, Lima, Peru
11 November, 2019
APEC Overview
Diego RIVERA RIVOTA, Researcher
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
2
APEC addresses energy challenges
APEC MembersAustralia
Brunei Darussalam
Canada
Chile
China
Hong Kong, China
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Mexico
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Philippines
Russia
Singapore
Chinese Taipei
Thailand
United States
Viet Nam
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
▪ APERC is the energy research arm of Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC)
▪ Researchers from 16 of APEC’s 21 economies
▪ Located in Tokyo, Japan
▪ Two flagship publications
▪ Annual Energy Overview
▪ Triennial Energy Demand
and Supply Outlook
3
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook
Investigates challenges faced by APEC economies:
▪ Affordably meeting growing energy demand
▪ Reducing negative energy-related environmental impacts
▪ Enhancing energy security and resilience
The 7th Edition Outlook provides analysis and insight on the:
▪ Impact of existing and alternative policies on energy demand,
supply, emissions and investments through 2050
▪ APEC energy intensity and renewables doubling goals
▪ Sectoral transitions that support Paris climate ambitions
4
Key APEC-wide trends through 2050
▪ Final energy demand continues to grow, driven mainly by
buildings and transport.
▪ Fossil fuels continue to account for at least half of FED and
TPES in 2050, in all scenarios.
▪ Electricity demand rises in all scenarios.
▪ Under the BAU, the APEC energy intensity goal is met but
the renewable share doubling goal is not
▪ Electrification, efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS are
all required to achieve a +2°C world.
5
APEC real GDP grows almost three-fold over the Outlook, despite
population peaking in 2043. World oil prices rise steadily.
6
GDP, population and oil prices all rise
GDP, population and world oil price in all scenarios, 2000-50
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).
Outlook Scenarios
7
Business-as-Usual
(BAU)
APEC Target
(TGT)
2-Degrees Celsius
(2DC)
Recent trends and
current policies.
Pathway that achieves
APEC-wide goals to
• reduce energy intensity
45% by 2035
• double the share of
renewables by 2030.
Pathway that provides a
50% chance of limiting
the average global
temperature rise to 2°C.
Provides a baseline
for comparison.
Explores implications of alternative scenarios and
identifies gaps to overcome.
1. BAU Scenario
8
Buildings and domestic transport grow most strongly, but industry remains largest.
9
Buildings and transport drive final demand
Final energy demand, by sector and fuel in BAU, 2000-50
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).
Final energy demand in South-east Asia nearly doubles from 2016 to 2050, while China remains the largest region.
10
South-east Asia, China lead demand growth
Final energy demand, by region in BAU, 2000-50
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).
Steady demand growth is met mainly by gas and renewables. Solar capacity grows most strongly over the Outlook
11
Buildings boost electricity demand
Power capacity and electricity generation, by fuel in BAU, 2016-50
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).
Natural gas increasingly substitutes for coal in both power and industry, enabled by growing production and trade.
12
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).
Fossil fuels continue to dominate supply
Total primary energy supply by fuel in BAU, 2000-50
APEC becomes a net oil products importer in 2032 and a net natural gas importer in 2033.
13
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).
APEC remains a net oil importer
APEC net energy imports, by fuel in BAU, 2000-50
2. Alternative Scenarios
14
Slightly more renewables in the TGT Scenario
Energy efficiency and renewables in the BAU and TGT, 2016-50
Final energy demand falls (mainly transport), but renewable supply
increases (mainly solar), which has a two-fold impact on the doubling goal.
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).
Electrification and efficiency improvements are the two key drivers of demand reduction.
16
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018)
Transport and buildings underpin 2DC
Final energy demand by end-use and fuel type in 2DC, 2000-50
Renewables, CCS for fossil fuel and biomass, and nuclear are all key to
decarbonising the electricity sector while storage supports integration.
17
Varied approach required in the 2DC
APEC power capacity and electricity generation by fuel in 2DC, 2016-50
Source: APERC analysis and IEA (2018)
Renewables and gas dominate supply as coal is replaced in power and industry. Still significant oil use in transport though.
18
Source: APERC analysis and IEA (2018)
Lower energy supply with more renewables
Total primary energy supply by fuel in 2DC, 2000-50
The APEC region does not achieve it’s cumulative NDCs under the BAU scenario, but at least achieves unconditional in TGT.
19
Sources: APERC analysis, IEA (2016 and 2018), IPCC (2018) and UNFCCC (2018).
Cumulative APEC NDCs not achieved in BAU
APEC energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario, 2000-50
Total emissions are significantly lower than under the other two scenarios, mostly due to electricity decarbonisation.
20
Sources: APERC analysis, IEA (2016 and 2018), IPCC (2018) and UNFCCC (2018).
In 2DC, CO2 emissions more than halve
Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DC, 2016-50
More than half of the emissions reduction in the 2DC occurs in electricity, but transport is also a large contributor.
21
Sources: APERC analysis, IEA (2016 and 2018), IPCC (2018) and UNFCCC (2018).
Electricity makes the largest contribution
Energy-related CO2 emissions reductions by sector in BAU against 2DC, 2016-50
▪ Growing wealth is the key driver of energy demand.
▪ Renewables are essential to the energy transition, but
improving efficiency and electrification make more of a
difference in buildings, transport and industry.
▪ Renewables, nuclear and CCS are all required to achieve
deep emissions reductions in the electricity sector.
▪ Despite these changes, fossil fuels remain the foundation
of the APEC energy system in all three scenarios.
▪ Opportunity to update NDCs next year should be taken.
▪ Capital expenditure grows in the more ambitious scenarios,
but this is outweighed by larger falls in fuel costs.
22
Key themes
3. Outlook for Peru
23
Strong economic growth sees GDP per capita more than doubling over the Outlook period as GDP outgrows population, driving up energy demand.
24
Key drivers: GDP and population
Peru • GDP, population and GDP per capita, 2000-50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Million2016
USD
billion
GDP (LHS) Population (RHS)
→ Projection
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2016
USD
PERU APEC
→ Projection
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
4. BAU Scenario
25
Transport almost double and industry largely continue unabated in the BAU
as population and GDP both increase. Traditional biomass still large.
26
FED grows steadily through the Outlook (59%)
Peru • Final energy demand by sector and fuel in the BAU, 2000-50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Agriculture Non-energy Buildings
Transport Industry
→ Projection
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Heat & others Electricity
Renewables Gas
Oil Coal
→ Projection
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
Road transport leads demand growth, great impact on diesel and gas.
Limited diversification to rail. Electricity grows, but remains very low. 27
Steady growth in domestic transport
Peru • Domestic transport energy demand by fuel and mode, BAU, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Fuel split
Other Renewables Electricity Jet fuel
Gas LPG Gasoline Diesel
→ Projection
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2016 2050
Mtoe
Modal split2/3-wheelers
Buses
Light vehicles
Light trucks
Heavy trucks
Marine
Aviation
Pipeline
Rail
Capacity grows by 48% to supply rapid increasing demand. Oil and coal are replaced with gas and renewables, mainly hydro and wind. (generation, 70%)
28
Gas and renewables dominate electricity
Peru • Power capacity and electricity generation by fuel in the BAU, 2000-50
0
5
10
15
20
25
2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
GW
Capacity
Coal Coal w/ CCS Oil
Gas Gas w/ CCS Nuclear
Hydro Wind Bioenergy
Bioenergy w/ CCS Solar Geothermal & others
Storage Net imports
→ Projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Generation
→ Projection
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
TPES grows 65% through 2050 with all fuels growing except coal and traditional biomass. Renewables grow but non-hydro REN accounts for 4%.
29
Fossil fuels remains dominant with gas on top…
Peru • Total primary energy supply by fuel in the BAU, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Other fuels
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
→ Projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
2016 2050
%
Gas production grows fast and peaks following the depletion of the
Camisea field. Hydro, wind and solar electricity generation all expand.
30
But renewables lead energy production growth
Peru • Total primary energy production by fuel in the BAU, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Other fuels
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
→ Projection
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016 2050
%
Peru continues being a natural gas net exporter until around 2035. Following
economic growth, imports for oil products and gas increase through 2050.
31
Peru remains a major net crude oil exporter
Peru • Net energy trade by fuel in the BAU, 2000-50
- 5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Bioenergy
Electricity
Gas
Oil products
Crude oil
Coal
Net trade
Imports
Exports
→ Projection
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
5. Alternative scenarios
32
Like in the BAU and TGT, transport makes the biggest FED
improvements in 2DC. Electricity and gas use still grow robustly.
33
In the 2DC, FED grows moderately despite fast economic and population growth
Peru • Final energy demand by sector and fuel in the 2DC, 2000-50
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Agriculture Non-energy Buildings
Transport Industry
→ Projection
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Heat & others Electricity
Renewables Gas
Oil Coal
→ Projection
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
Gasoline and diesel remain dominant but its share decreases at the
expense of natural gas. EVs, Rail and other modes remain marginal.
34
Transport grows by 20% in the 2DC
Peru • Domestic transport energy demand by fuel and mode in the 2DC, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Fuel split
Other Renewables Electricity Jet fuel
Gas LPG Gasoline Diesel
→ Projection
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2016 2050
Mtoe
Modal split2/3-wheelers
Buses
Light vehicles
Light trucks
Heavy trucks
Marine
Aviation
Pipeline
Rail
Wind and solar capacity are essential to the 2DC as they interact with
hydropower and some are CCGTs. Oil and coal practically disappear.35
Non-fossil fuel generation accounts for 94%
Peru • Power capacity and electricity generation by fuel in the 2DC, 2000-50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
GW
Capacity
Coal Oil Gas
Hydro Wind Bioenergy
Solar Geothermal & others Storage
Net imports
→ Projection
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Generation
→ Projection
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
Lower demand and robust growth on renewables. Gas almost completely
replaced by renewables by 2050. Transport, tougher to decarbonize.
36
TPES in the 2DC is 32% lower than the BAU…
Peru • Total primary energy supply by fuel in the 2DC, 2000-50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Other fuels
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
BAU total
TGT total
→ Projection
fasSources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
Gasoline and diesel imports are significantly lower in the 2DC, while Peru remains
as a net gas exporter. Demand efficiency gains enhance energy security.
37
Efficiency gains reduce imports dependency
Peru • Net energy trade by fuel in the 2DC, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
- 6
- 4
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Bioenergy
Electricity
Gas
Oil products
Crude oil
Coal
2DS net trade
Imports
Exports
→ Projection
6. Emissions and investment
38
Despite progress, current policies are not aligned with Peru’s NDC
and domestic emissions goals and strategies.
39
Peru only achieves its CO2 emission goals in the 2DCPeru • Energy related CO2 emissions by scenario, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtCO2
BAU
TGT
2DC
NDC range
→ Projection
Following energy demand growth and despite current energy efficiency measures, CO2 emissions rise in all sectors through 2050.
40
Little progress outside electricity in the BAU…
Peru • Energy related CO2 emissions by sector in the BAU, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtCO2
Electricity
Energy own-use
Transport
Industry
Buildings
→ Projection
Accelerated decarbonisation efforts via intensive renewable development, and a
profound transformation in the transport sector, bring down CO2 emissions.
41
But massive improvement in electricity and transport in 2DCPeru • Energy related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DC, 2000-50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtCO2
Electricity
Energy own-use
Transport
Industry
Buildings
→ Projection
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
▪ Energy demand growth driven by robust economic expansion and
population, but pollutant emissions follow the same path.
▪ This requires an urgent energy transition to a lower-carbon energy system
capable of meeting increasing demand and ensuring affordability. Thorough
assessment on the role of gas in this transition.
▪ Essential to enact energy efficiency measures, such as enhancing fuel
economy standards, developing intermodal transportation (particularly in
public transport) and promoting electric vehicles.
▪ Huge untapped renewable potential, contributing to sustainability, energy
security and energy affordability. Auctions ? Turn-key projects?
▪ Enhancing energy security: increasing transmission capacity, building
storage capacity and diversifying imports. Discrete but indispensable
investments.
▪ Energy efficiency, progress on standards but still much to do, especially in
high-intensity sectors.
42
Final thoughts
Muchas gracias!
▪ Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
▪ www.aperc.ieej.or.jp
43
Demand growth is driven by population and economic expansion as well as
better living conditions, traditional biomass decreases but remains large.
44
Buildings demand grows by 46%
Peru • Buildings energy demand by end-use and fuel in the BAU, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Heat & others Electricity
Renewables Gas
Oil Coal
→ Projection
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Services Residential
→ Projection
‘Gasification’ of the industrial sector, covering demand growth and
substituting oil and coal. Room for efficiency in cement and iron.
45
Growth in industry demand is more subdued
Peru • Industry energy demand by end-use and fuel in the BAU, 2000-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Non-specified Pulp & paper
Other Mining
Iron & steel Chemicals
Non-metallic minerals Aluminium
→ Projection
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Heat & others Electricity
Renewables Gas w/ CCS
Gas Oil
Coal w/ CCS Coal
→ Projection
Energy production remains almost unchanged across scenarios, with
gas remaining in the lead and…46
But fossil fuels still dominate production…
Peru • Total primary energy production by fuel in the 2DC, 2000-50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Other fuels
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
→ Projection
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016 2050
%
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
Transport (mostly oil) demand flattens. Energy efficiency measures slow-down
growth while electricity and gas replace a significant amount of oil use.
47
FED grows at a slower pace in the TGT…
Peru • Final energy demand by sector and fuel in the TGT, 2000-50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Agriculture Non-energy Buildings
Transport Industry
→ Projection
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mtoe
Heat & others Electricity
Renewables Gas
Oil Coal
→ Projection
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
Electricity demand increases more slowly than in the BAU, but the share of
renewables reaches 56% (compared with 50% under the BAU).
48
And renewable penetration grows strongly
Peru • Electricity generation by fuel in the TGT, 2016, 2030 and 2050
0 20 40 60 80 100
Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
205
0203
0201
6
TWh
Coal
Oil
Gas
Net imports
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Biomass and
others
56%
56%
50%
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
Reducing emissions in Industry and buildings is harder. Transportation emissions
reduction requires more attention (efficiency, electrification, rail, etc.).
49
Fundamental changes in transport and further electrification required. Peru • Energy related CO2 emissions reductions by sector, 2016-50
Sources: APERC Analysis and IEA (2018).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MtCO2
Industry
Buildings
Transport
Energy own-use
Transformation
→ Projection
BAU Scenario
2DC Scenario